DES-HOLT

α
γ

Month Demand dt Smoothed S_t Trend St

18-Jul 686
18-Aug 789 789.0 103.0
18-Sep 881 881.0 102.2
18-Oct 976 976.0 101.7
18-Nov 982 982.2 94.8
18-Dec 712 712.9 68.5
19-Jan 878 877.8 75.5
19-Feb 987 986.9 77.9
19-Mar 1378 1377.2 100.5
19-Apr 1262 1262.5 84.9
19-May 1100 1100.6 67.1
19-Jun 745 746.0 36.6
19-Jul 867 866.8 42.7
19-Aug 668 668.6 25.3
19-Sep 848 847.6 36.4
19-Oct 1023 1022.7 46.4
19-Nov 980 980.2 40.0
19-Dec 883 883.3 30.1
20-Jan 920 920.0 30.6
20-Feb 998 997.9 34.0
20-Mar 1460 1459.0 64.9
20-Apr 1212 1212.8 42.4
20-May 1106 1106.4 31.6
20-Jun 907 907.6 15.0
20-Jul
20-Aug
20-Sep
20-Oct
20-Nov
20-Des
0.997566484566955
0.072209471117252

Forecast Demand dt'

892
983
1078
1077
781
953
1065
1478
1347
1168
783
910
694
884
1069
1020
913
951
1032
1524
1255
1138
923
938
953
968
983
998
 DES-HOLT

RMSE 216.5
α 0.997566484566955
γ 0.072209471117252

Month Demand dt Smoothed S_t Trend St Forecast Demand dt'

18-Jul 686
18-Aug 789 789.0 103.0
18-Sep 881 881.0 102.2 892
18-Oct 976 976.0 101.7 983
18-Nov 982 982.2 94.8 1078
18-Dec 712 712.9 68.5 1077
19-Jan 878 877.8 75.5 781
19-Feb 987 986.9 77.9 953
19-Mar 1378 1377.2 100.5 1065
19-Apr 1262 1262.5 84.9 1478
19-May 1100 1100.6 67.1 1347
19-Jun 745 746.0 36.6 1168
19-Jul 867 866.8 42.7 783
19-Aug 668 668.6 25.3 910
19-Sep 848 847.6 36.4 694
19-Oct 1023 1022.7 46.4 884
19-Nov 980 980.2 40.0 1069
19-Dec 883 883.3 30.1 1020
20-Jan 920 920.0 30.6 913
20-Feb 998 997.9 34.0 951
20-Mar 1460 1459.0 64.9 1032
20-Apr 1212 1212.8 42.4 1524
20-May 1106 1106.4 31.6 1255
20-Jun 907 907.6 15.0 1138
20-Jul 923
20-Aug 938
20-Sep 953
20-Oct 968
20-Nov 983
20-Des 998
DES-HOLT

MAD 174.0
MSE 46873.5
MAPE 18.10%

Error |Error| Error^2 |% Error| RSFE Cumulative Cum |Error|

-11.00 11.00 121.0 1.25% -11.00 11.00

-7.23 7.23 52.3 0.74% -18.23 18.23
-95.70 95.70 9159.3 9.75% -113.94 113.94
-365.03 365.03 133243.6 51.27% -478.96 478.96
96.61 96.61 9334.1 11.00% -382.35 575.58
33.78 33.78 1140.9 3.42% -348.57 609.35
313.19 313.19 98088.8 22.73% -35.38 922.55
-215.69 215.69 46521.8 17.09% -251.07 1138.23
-247.44 247.44 61226.2 22.49% -498.51 1385.67
-422.69 422.69 178669.0 56.74% -921.20 1808.37
84.33 84.33 7111.4 9.73% -836.87 1892.70
-241.51 241.51 58327.9 36.15% -1078.39 2134.21
154.09 154.09 23744.5 18.17% -924.29 2288.30
138.96 138.96 19308.6 13.58% -785.34 2427.26
-89.09 89.09 7937.2 9.09% -874.43 2516.35
-137.23 137.23 18831.6 15.54% -1011.66 2653.57
6.54 6.54 42.8 0.71% -1005.12 2660.11
47.42 47.42 2248.5 4.75% -957.70 2707.53
428.10 428.10 183271.4 29.32% -529.60 3135.63
-311.81 311.81 97225.1 25.73% -841.41 3447.44
-149.15 149.15 22245.5 13.49% -990.56 3596.59
-231.01 231.01 53365.4 25.47% -1221.57 3827.60
 DES-HOLT

RMSE 216.5
α 0.997566484566955
γ 0.072209471117252

Month Demand dt Smoothed S_t Trend St Forecast Demand dt'

18-Jul 686
18-Aug 789 789.0 103.0
18-Sep 881 881.0 102.2 892
18-Oct 976 976.0 101.7 983
18-Nov 982 982.2 94.8 1078
18-Dec 712 712.9 68.5 1077
19-Jan 878 877.8 75.5 781
19-Feb 987 986.9 77.9 953
19-Mar 1378 1377.2 100.5 1065
19-Apr 1262 1262.5 84.9 1478
19-May 1100 1100.6 67.1 1347
19-Jun 745 746.0 36.6 1168
19-Jul 867 866.8 42.7 783
19-Aug 668 668.6 25.3 910
19-Sep 848 847.6 36.4 694
19-Oct 1023 1022.7 46.4 884
19-Nov 980 980.2 40.0 1069
19-Dec 883 883.3 30.1 1020
20-Jan 920 920.0 30.6 913
20-Feb 998 997.9 34.0 951
20-Mar 1460 1459.0 64.9 1032
20-Apr 1212 1212.8 42.4 1524
20-May 1106 1106.4 31.6 1255
20-Jun 907 907.6 15.0 1138
20-Jul 923
20-Aug 938
20-Sep 953
20-Oct 968
20-Nov 983
20-Des 998
DES-HOLT

MAD 174.0
MSE 46873.5
MAPE 18.10%

Error |Error| Error^2 |% Error| RSFE Cumulative Cum |Error|

-11.00 11.00 121.0 1.25% -11.00 11.00

-7.23 7.23 52.3 0.74% -18.23 18.23
-95.70 95.70 9159.3 9.75% -113.94 113.94
-365.03 365.03 133243.6 51.27% -478.96 478.96
96.61 96.61 9334.1 11.00% -382.35 575.58
33.78 33.78 1140.9 3.42% -348.57 609.35
313.19 313.19 98088.8 22.73% -35.38 922.55
-215.69 215.69 46521.8 17.09% -251.07 1138.23
-247.44 247.44 61226.2 22.49% -498.51 1385.67
-422.69 422.69 178669.0 56.74% -921.20 1808.37
84.33 84.33 7111.4 9.73% -836.87 1892.70
-241.51 241.51 58327.9 36.15% -1078.39 2134.21
154.09 154.09 23744.5 18.17% -924.29 2288.30
138.96 138.96 19308.6 13.58% -785.34 2427.26
-89.09 89.09 7937.2 9.09% -874.43 2516.35
-137.23 137.23 18831.6 15.54% -1011.66 2653.57
6.54 6.54 42.8 0.71% -1005.12 2660.11
47.42 47.42 2248.5 4.75% -957.70 2707.53
428.10 428.10 183271.4 29.32% -529.60 3135.63
-311.81 311.81 97225.1 25.73% -841.41 3447.44
-149.15 149.15 22245.5 13.49% -990.56 3596.59
-231.01 231.01 53365.4 25.47% -1221.57 3827.60

6.00

4.00

2.00

0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1
-2.00

-4.00

-6.00

-8.00
 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1
-2.00

-4.00

-6.00

-8.00
 MAD TS UCL CL LCL

11.00 -1.00 4 0 -4
9.12 -2.00 4 0 -4
37.98 -3.00 4 0 -4
119.74 -4.00 4 0 -4
115.12 -3.32 4 0 -4
101.56 -3.43 4 0 -4
131.79 -0.27 4 0 -4
142.28 -1.76 4 0 -4
153.96 -3.24 4 0 -4
180.84 -5.09 4 0 -4
172.06 -4.86 4 0 -4
177.85 -6.06 4 0 -4
176.02 -5.25 4 0 -4
173.38 -4.53 4 0 -4
167.76 -5.21 4 0 -4
165.85 -6.10 4 0 -4
156.48 -6.42 4 0 -4
150.42 -6.37 4 0 -4
165.03 -3.21 4 0 -4
172.37 -4.88 4 0 -4
171.27 -5.78 4 0 -4
173.98 -7.02 4 0 -4

Column N
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Column O
Column P
Column Q
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Column O
Column P
Column Q
Month Demand dt Forecast Demand dt' dt' - dt d(t-1')-d(t-1)
18-Jul 686
18-Aug 789
18-Sep 881 892 11
18-Oct 976 983 7 11
18-Nov 982 1078 96 7
18-Dec 712 1077 365 96
19-Jan 878 781 -97 365
19-Feb 987 953 -34 -97
19-Mar 1378 1065 -313 -34
19-Apr 1262 1478 216 -313
19-May 1100 1347 247 216
19-Jun 745 1168 423 247
19-Jul 867 783 -84 423
19-Aug 668 910 242 -84
19-Sep 848 694 -154 242
19-Oct 1023 884 -139 -154
19-Nov 980 1069 89 -139
19-Dec 883 1020 137 89
20-Jan 920 913 -7 137
20-Feb 998 951 -47 -7
20-Mar 1460 1032 -428 -47
20-Apr 1212 1524 312 -428
20-May 1106 1255 149 312
20-Jun 907 1138 231 149
MR
UCL
LCL
(dt'-dt)-(d(t-1)'-d(t-1)) |(dt'-dt)-(d(t-1)'-d(t-1))| MRt UCL 2/3 UCL
4 629.6447 419.7631
88 629.6447 419.7631
269 629.6447 419.7631
-4 3.77 462 629.6447 419.7631
88 88.47 63 629.6447 419.7631
269 269.32 279 629.6447 419.7631
-462 461.64 529 629.6447 419.7631
63 62.84 32 629.6447 419.7631
-279 279.41 175 629.6447 419.7631
529 528.88 507 629.6447 419.7631
32 31.75 326 629.6447 419.7631
175 175.25 396 629.6447 419.7631
-507 507.02 15 629.6447 419.7631
326 325.84 228 629.6447 419.7631
-396 395.60 48 629.6447 419.7631
15 15.14 144 629.6447 419.7631
228 228.05 41 629.6447 419.7631
48 48.14 381 629.6447 419.7631
-144 143.77 740 629.6447 419.7631
-41 40.88 163 629.6447 419.7631
-381 380.68 82 629.6447 419.7631
740 739.91
-163 162.66
82 81.86 DES-Holt Verific
236.71
1000
629.6447
800
-629.645
600
400
200
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-200
-400
-600
-800

MRt UCL
LCL 2/3 LCL
 1/3 UCL LCL 2/3 LCL 1/3 LCL CL
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0
209.8816 -629.645 -419.763 -209.882 0

DES-Holt Verification Test

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

MRt UCL 2/3 UCL 1/3 UCL

LCL 2/3 LCL 1/3 LCL CL