Publishing and Promotion in Economics:

The Curse of the Top Five∗ Gender

Analysis
truly con-
fusing
James J. Heckman† & Sidharth Moktan‡

Friday 10th August, 2018

Abstract
This paper examines the relationship between placement of publications in Top Five
journals and receipt of tenure in academic economics. Analyzing the job histories of tenure-
track economists hired by the Top 35 U.S. economics departments, we find that Top Five
publications have a powerful influence on tenure decisions and rates of transition to tenure.
The Top Five screen is far from reliable. A sustainable share of influential publications
appear in non-T5 outlets. A survey of young economists supports the formal statistical
analysis. Pursuit of Top Five publications has become the obsession of the next generation
of economists.

∗ This research was supported by a grant from the Institute for the New Economic Thinking to the Center for

the Economics of Human Development. We thank George Akerlof, Tom Ferguson, and Rob Johnson for their
comments. An early version of this analysis was presented in a roundtable ‘The Curse of the Top Five’ at the
if I’m not AEA meetings in January 7, 2017. For a video of the session, see . . . . . . . . . get address
† James J. Heckman is the Henry Schultz Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago, Director
wrong
of the Human Capital and Equal Opportunity Group sponsored by INET, and Director of the Center for the
Economics of Human Development at the University of Chicago, and a research fellow for the American Bar
Foundation.
‡ Sidharth Moktan is a Protocol Fellow at the Center for the Economics of Human Development at the Uni-

versity of Chicago.