MODULE – LECTURE NOTES ISP542/ITS462 REASONING IN UNCERTAIN SITUATION

CHAPTER 5
REASONING IN UNCERTAIN
SITUATION

CERTAINTY FACTOR _________________________________________________ 2

CERTAINTY FACTOR FOR SINGLE ANTECEDENT RULE __________________ 3
CERTAINTY FACTOR FOR MULTIPLE ANTECEDENTS RULE ______________ 4
CERTAINTY FACTOR FOR MULTIPLE RULES WITH SAME HYPOTHESIS ____ 5
FUZZY LOGIC _______________________________________________________ 8
FUZZY SETS ______________________________________________________ 8
HEDGES _________________________________________________________ 10
FUZZY INFERENCES _______________________________________________ 12
PRACTICE MAKES PERFECT _________________________________________ 13

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5 REASONING IN UNCERTAIN SITUATION

Through most part of this module, inference procedures followed the model of reasoning used in
predicate calculus: from correct premises, sound inference rules produce new, guaranteed
correct conclusions. However, there are many situations where does not fit this approach. This
is due to poorly formed and uncertain evidence using unsound inference rules.

In almost every aspect of our daily life, we draw useful conclusions from incomplete and
imprecise data successfully. Doctors deliver correct medical diagnoses and recommend
treatment from various ambiguous symptoms. People recognize other people from their voice ot
their gestures. All of these are example of uncertain situations.

The example below will demonstrate the problem of reasoning in ambiguous situation:

IF speed = high AND load = high THEN burn = very fast.

IF speed = moderate AND load = high THEN burn fast.

The usage of words like ‘high, moderate, fast, very fast’ shows that they are in uncertain
situation. There are several techniques can be used to reason in such situation. However, in this
module, two techniques should be discussed only Certainty Factor and Fuzzy Logic.

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CERTAINTY FACTOR

Certainty factors theory is a popular technique to reason in uncertainty. The basic principles of
this theory were first introduced in MYCIN, an expert system for the diagnosis and therapy of
blood infections and meningitis. The developers of MYCIN found that medical experts
expressed the strength of their belief in terms that were neither logical nor mathematical
consistent. In addition, there was no reliable statistical data about the problem domain. There
are several uncertain terms interpreted in certainty factors as shown in table 1.

Table 1. Uncertain terms and their interpretation

Term Certainty Factor (cf)
Definitely not -1.0
Almost certainly not -0.8 (-0.99 → -0.75)
Probably not -0.6 (-0.74 → -0.55)
Maybe not -0.4 (-0.54 → -0.25)
Unknown -0.2 to +0.2 (-0.24 → 0.24)
Maybe +0.4 (0.25 → 0.54)
Probably +0.6 (0.55 → 0.74)
Almost certainly +0.8 (0.75 → 0.99)
Definitely +1.0

The maximum value of certainty factors (cf) is +1.0 (definitely true and the minimum is -1.0
(definitely false). A positive value represented a degree of belief and a negative value
represented a degree of disbelief.

The certainty factors theory is based on two functions:

Measure of Belief (MB)

1 If p(H) = 1
MB(H,E) =
max[p(H|E), p(H)] – p(H)
otherwise
max[1,0] – p(H)
where:
p(H) is the prior probability of hypothesis H is true
p(H|E) is the probability that hypothesis H is true given evidence E.

Measure of belief indicates the degree to which belief in hypothesis (H) would be increased
if evidence (E) were observed.

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Measure of Disbelief (MD)

1 If p(H) = 0
MD(H,E) =
min[p(H|E), p(H)] – p(H)
otherwise
min[1,0] – p(H)
where:
p(H) is the prior probability of hypothesis H is true
p(H|E) is the probability that hypothesis H is true given evidence E.

Measure of disbelief indicates the degree to which disbelief in hypothesis (H) would be
increased if evidence (E) were observed.

Both measures range between 0 and 1. Combining both measures, to produce the certainty
factor, determine the total strength of belief or disbelief in a hypothesis. The certainty factor is
computed using the following equation:

MB(H,E) – MD(H,E)
cf =
1–min [MB(H,E), MD(H,E)]

Thus, cf value will always range between +1 and -1, indicates the total belief in hypothesis H.

Usually, the focus is to find the net certainty of rule consequent when the evidence in the rule
antecedent is uncertain. This is shown as follows:

IF A is X ( given that this is uncertain )

THEN B is Y ( how certain will this be? )

Certainty Factor for Single Antecedent Rule

The net certainty for a single antecedent rule, cf(H,E), can be easily computed by multiplying the
certainty factor of the antecedent, cf(E), with the rule certainty factor, cf.

cf(H,E) = cf(E) x cf

For example,

IF the sky is clear

THEN the forecast is sunny {cf 0.8}

and the current certainty factor of sky is clear is 0.5, then

cf(H,E) = 0.5 x 0.8 = 0.4

This result, according to table 1, would read as ‘It maybe sunny’.

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Certainty Factor for Multiple Antecedents Rule

There are two possible cases for multiple antecedent rule: conjunctive rule and disjunctive rule.

Conjunctive rule
The net certainty for a multiple antecedents rule, cf(H, E1  E2  E3  …  En), can be computed
by as follows:

cf(H, E1  E2  E3  …  En) = min [cf(E1),cf(E2), cf(E3), … , cf(En)] x cf

Example Given the following rule:

IF the sky is clear

AND the temperature is hot
AND the forecast is sunny
THEN action is wearing sunglasses {cf 0.8}

and given the current certainty factor of the evidences are as follows:
cf(sky is clear) = 0.9, cf(temperature is hot) = 0.8, cf(forecast is sunny) = 0.7
Find the cf for action is wear sunglasses.

Solution cf(H,E1  E2  E3) = min[0.9, 0.8, 0.7] x 0.8

= 0.7 x 0.8
= 0.56

Therefore, it can be interpreted as ‘Probably it would be a good idea to wear

sunglasses’.

Disjunctive rule
The net certainty for a multiple antecedents rule, cf(H,E1  E2  E3  …  En), can be computed
by as follows:

cf(H,E1  E2  E3  …  En) = max [cf(E1),cf(E2), cf(E3), … , cf(En)] x cf

Example Given the following rule:

IF the sky is clear

OR the temperature is hot
OR the forecast is sunny
THEN action is wearing sunglasses {cf 0.8}

and given the current certainty factor of the evidences are as follows:

cf(sky is clear) = 0.9, cf(temperature is hot) = 0.8, cf(forecast is sunny) = 0.7

Find the cf for action is wear sunglasses.

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Solution cf(H,E1  E2  E3) = max[0.9, 0.8, 0.7] x 0.8

= 0.9 x 0.8
= 0.72

Therefore, it can be interpreted as ‘Almost certainly sunglasses should be worn

today’.

Certainty Factor for Multiple Rules with Same Hypothesis

Sometimes, two or more rules can affect the same hypothesis. This occurs when the same
consequent is obtained as a result of the execution of two or more rules.

For example:
Rule 1: IF A is X
THEN C is Z {cf 0.8}

Rule 2: IF B is Y
THEN C is Z {cf 0.6}

In the given example above, both rules will fire the same consequences which is C is Z.
Therefore, the individual certainty factors obtained from each rule should be combined together
using the following equations:
cf1 + cf2 x ( 1 - cf1 ) If cf1 > 0 and cf2 > 0 (Both positive values)

cf1 + cf2 If cf1 > 0 or cf2 > 0 (One positive and one
cf(H,E) =
1 – min(|cf1| , |cf2|) negative value)

cf1 + cf2 x ( 1 + cf1 ) If cf1 < 0 and cf2 < 0 (Both negative values)
where:
cf1 is the confidence in hypothesis H established by Rule 1.
cf2 is the confidence in hypothesis H established by Rule 2.
|cf1| and |cf2| is the absolute magnitudes of cf1 and cf2, respectively.

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Case 1: Both positive cf

Example Given the following rules:

Rule 1: IF today is rain

THEN tomorrow is rain {cf 0.8}

Rule 2: IF today is dry

THEN tomorrow is rain {cf 0.5}

and given the current certainty factor of the evidences are as follows:

cf(today is rain) = 0.9, cf(today is dry) = 0.1.

Find the cf for tomorrow is rain.

Solution cf1(tomorrow is rain) = 0.9 x 0.8

= 0.72

cf2(tomorrow is rain) = 0.1 x 0.5

= 0.05

cf2(tomorrow is rain) = cf1 + cf2 x ( 1 - cf1 )

= 0.72 + 0.05 x ( 1 – 0.72)
= 0.734

Therefore, it can be interpreted as ‘tomorrow probably rain’.

Case 2: One positive cf and one negative cf

Example Given the following rules:

Rule 1: IF today is rain

THEN tomorrow is rain {cf 0.8}

Rule 2: IF today is dry

THEN tomorrow is rain {cf 0.5}

and given the current certainty factor of the evidences are as follows:

cf(today is rain) = 0.9, cf(today is dry) = -0.1.

Find the cf for tomorrow is rain.

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Solution cf1(tomorrow is rain) = 0.9 x 0.8

= 0.72

cf2(tomorrow is rain) = -0.1 x 0.5

= -0.05

cf2(tomorrow is rain) = cf1 + cf2

1 - min[ |cf1| , |cf2|]

= 0.72 + (-0.05)
1 - min[ |0.72| , |-0.05|]

= 0.67
1 - 0.05

= 0.705

Therefore, it can be interpreted as ‘tomorrow probably rain’.

Case 3: Both negative cf

Example Given the following rules:

Rule 1 : IF today is rain

THEN tomorrow is rain {cf 0.8}

Rule 2 : IF today is dry

THEN tomorrow is rain {cf 0.5}

and given the current certainty factor of the evidences are as follows:

cf(today is rain) = -0.9, cf(today is dry) = -0.1.

Find the cf for tomorrow is rain.

Solution cf1(tomorrow is rain) = -0.9 x 0.8

= -0.72

cf2(tomorrow is rain) = -0.1 x 0.5

= -0.05

cf2(tomorrow is rain) = cf1 + cf2 x ( 1 + cf1 )

= -0.72 + -0.05 x ( 1 + (-0.72))
= -0.734

Therefore, it can be interpreted as ‘tomorrow probably not rain’.

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FUZZY LOGIC

Besides certainty factor, fuzzy logic is another way to reason in uncertain situation. Experts
usually rely on common sense when solving a problem. First order predicate calculus is a logic
in which an interpretation requires mapping symbols into sets in order to assign a truth value.
For example, you are an astronaut unless you are a member of the set that lists all astronauts.
This kind of logic is a crisp one – either an object is a member of a set or not.

Fuzzy logic is an idea of logic where involve partial set membership introduced by Lotfi Zadeh
during the 1960’s. The idea was to provide a reasoning mechanism that could use fuzzy
variables.

In fuzzy logic, linguistic variables are usually used to describe the variables and it always being
assigned with linguistic values. Sometimes, hedges are used to strengthen the values assigned.

Terms & Definitions:

Fuzzy logic A branch of logic that uses degree of membership in sets rather than a
strict true/false value

Linguistic variable Term used in our natural language to describe some concepts that
usually has vague fuzzy values

Example:

IF speed is high Linguistic variables: speed, load and burn

AND load is high Linguistic values: high, fast
THEN burn is very fast. Hedges: very

FUZZY SETS

The concept of a set is fundamental to mathematics. For example, car indicates the set of cars.
When we say a car, means one out of the set of cars.

Let X be a classical (crisp) set and x is an element. Then, x is either belongs to X (x  X) or not
belong to X (x  X). This explains that crisp set imposes a sharp clear-cut boundary on the set.
Therefore, the x element can be assigned with value 1 or 0, which means it belongs or not
belong to the set respectively. For example, we could ask the question, ‘Is the man tall?’.
In crisp set, the answer could be yes (1) or no (0).

However, in fuzzy logic, usually we express set more than classical set does. The question we
should ask is, ‘How tall is the man?’. And the answer could be ‘quite tall’, ‘very tall’, and etc.

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The following figure explains more about the differences between crisp and fuzzy set. According
to figure (a), if Halim’s height is 160 cm, he is not a tall man. However, if we consider the fuzzy
set in figure (b), Halim belong to ‘tall men’ set with degree of membership 0.2.

Fuzzy membership value is always calculated using the membership function as represented in
the graph.

1.0 1.0

0.8 0.8
Degree of membership

Degree of membership
0.6 0.6

0.4 0.4

0.2 0.2

0.0 0.0

150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185
Height, cm Height, cm

(a) Crisp set of ‘tall men’ (b) Fuzzy set of ‘tall men’

Fuzzy set can also be represented in the form of elements and degree of membership. Assume
we have a universe of discourse X and a fuzzy set A defined on it.

X = { x1, x2, x3, … , xn }

Fuzzy sets A defines the degree of membership, A (x) that maps elements xi of X to degree of
membership in [0,1].

A = { a1, a2, a3, … , an } where ai = A (xi)

Includes symbols “/” which associates the membership valus ai, to the element xi.
as follows:

A = { a1/x1, a2/x2, a3/x3, … , an/xn }

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1.0
For example, we could consider the following
set of short, medium and tall people (refer to
the following graph):

Short = { 1/130, 1/140, 0.5/150, 0/160 } short medium tall

Medium = { 0/140, 0.5/150, 1/160, 0.5/170,
0/180 }
Tall = { 0/160, 0.5/170, 1/180, 1/190 }

0.0
130 140 150 160 170 180 190 cm

FUZZY SET OPERATIONS

The same concept as classical set, several operations can be done onto the sets, such as
intersection, union and complementation.

Refer to the given set below to understand each operation:

Short = { 1/130, 1/140, 0.5/150, 0/160 }

Medium = { 0/140, 0.5/150, 1/160, 0.5/170, 0/180 }
Tall = { 0/160, 0.5/170, 1/180, 1/190 }

INTERSECTION

In classical set theory, intersection of 2 sets contains elements that common to both.
In fuzzy sets, an element may be partially in both sets.

AB(x) = min( A(x), B(x) ) 1.0

Example:
Medium  Tall = { 0/160, 0.5/170, 0/180 }
(as shown in the shaded area in the graph) short medium tall

0.0
130 140 150 160 170 180 190 cm

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UNION

Union of 2 sets contains elements that belong to one or both sets.

AB(x) = max( A(x), B(x) ) 1.0

Example:
Medium  Tall = { 0/140, 0.5/150, 1/160,
0.5/170, 1/180, 1/190 } short medium tall
(as shown in the shaded area in the graph)

0.0
130 140 150 160 170 180 190 cm

COMPLEMENTATION
1.0
A (x) = 1 - A(x)

Example:
Medium = { 1/140, 0.5/150, 0/160, short medium tall
0.5/170, 1/180 }
(as shown in the shaded area in the graph)

0.0
130 140 150 160 170 180 190 cm

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HEDGES

Another term to be familiarized is hedges. A hedge is a qualifier of a fuzzy set used to modify its
shape. Hedges includes adverbs such as ‘very’, ‘somewhat’, ‘quite’, ‘more or less’, and ‘slightly’.
They perform mathematical operations of concentration, dilation or intensification by reducing or
increasing the degree of membership of fuzzy elements.

Hedge Mathematical Expression Graphical

Representation

A little [A (x)]1.3

Slightly [A (x)]1.7

Very [A (x)]2

Extremely [A (x)]3

Very very [A (x)]4

More or less
 A (x)
Somewhat

2[A (x)]2
if 0  A  0.5
Indeed
1 - 2[1 - A (x)]2
if 0.5 < A  1

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PRACTICE MAKES PERFECT

1. Given the following rules:

R1: if have children = yes
and enjoy gambling = yes
then risk tolerance = high {0.9}

R2: if have children = yes

and children headed for college = yes
and children's education already funded = no
then risk tolerance = high {0.4}

R3: if budgeting very important = yes

then risk tolerance = low {0.2}

R4: if worry about money at night = yes

then risk tolerance = low {0.7}

R5: if budget but splurge sometimes = yes

then risk tolerance = medium {0.9}

R6: if have children = yes

or enjoy gambling = yes
then risk tolerance = medium {0.8}

Given the certainty factors below,

have children = yes {1.0}
enjoy gambling = yes {0.8)
children headed for college = yes {0.3}
children's education already funded = no {0.4}
budgeting very important = yes {0.7}
worry about money at night = yes {0.1}
budget but splurge sometimes = yes {0.5}

a) Calculate the certainty factor for risk tolerance = high.

b) Calculate the certainty factor for risk tolerance = medium.

c) Calculate the certainty factor for risk tolerance = low.

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2. Given the following rules:

R1: if today is Saturday

and week is odd
then day is off-day

R2: if day is off-day

and weather is sunny
then go to market

R3: if day is off-day

and weather is rain
then go to hypermarket

R4: if day is working-day

then go to office

R5: if week is first

or week is third
then week is odd

R6: if today is Monday

or today is Tuesday
then today is working-day

Given the certainty factors below:

R1 = 0.8, R2= 0.5, R3 = 0.7, R4 = 0.9, R5 = 1.0, R6 = 0.2

today is Saturday {0.2}
week is first {0.1}
week is third {1.0}
weather is sunny {0.6}

Calculate the certainty factor for ‘go to market’.

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3. Given the following rules:

R1: if today is rain
then tomorrow is rain {cf 0.5}

R2: if today is dry

then tomorrow is dry {cf 0.5}

R3: if today is rain

and rainfall is low
then tomorrow is dry {cf 0.6}

R4: if today is rain

and rainfall is low
and temperature is cold
then tomorrow is dry {cf 0.7}

R5: if today is dry

and temperature is warm
then tomorrow is rain {cf 0.65}

R3: if today is dry

and rainfall is low
and sky is overcast
then tomorrow is rain {cf 0.55}

Given the certainty factors below,

today is rain {cf 1.0}
rainfall is low (cf 0.8}
temperature is cold {cf 0.9}

a) Calculate the certainty factor for tomorrow is rain.

b) Calculate the certainty factor for tomorrow is dry.

4. Given two fuzzy sets of A and B.

A = { 0.3/1, 0.5/3, 1/4, 0.7/6, 0.2/7 }
B = { 0.2/1, 0.8/2, 0.9/4, 0.6/5, 0.3/7 }

a) Find AB and AB.

b) Find A (B  A).

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5. Given the fuzzy sets:

Tall(X) = { 0 if X < 1.6m

(X - 1.6m) / 0.2, if 1.6m <= X < 1.8m
1, if X >= 1.8m }

Short(X) = { 1 if X < 1.6m

(1.8m - X) / 0.2, if 1.6m <= X < 1.8m
0, if X >= 1.8m }

a) Sketch the graphs of Tall(X) and Short(X).

b) Calculate the Union of the fuzzy sets Tall(X) and Short(X).

c) Calculate the Intersection of the fuzzy sets Tall(X) and Short(X).

d) Show that the complement of Tall(X) is Short(X).

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