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Simulating indirect effects that thunderstorm activity has on atmospheric

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Article  in  Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · September 2013

DOI: 10.1134/S0001433813050137

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ISSN 00014338, Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 2013, Vol. 49, No. 5, pp. 504–518. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2013.
Original Russian Text © S.P. Smyshlyaev, E.A. Mareev, V.Ya. Galin, P.A. Blakitnaya, 2013, published in Izvestiya AN. Fizika Atmosfery i Okeana, 2013, Vol. 49, No. 5, pp. 550–564.

Simulating Indirect Effects That Thunderstorm Activity

Has on Atmospheric Temperature
S. P. Smyshlyaeva, E. A. Mareevb, V. Ya. Galinc, and P. A. Blakitnayaa
a
Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Malookhtinskii pr. 98, St. Petersburg, 195196 Russia
email: smushl@rshu.ru
b Institute of Applied Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Ul’yanova 46, Nizhni Novgorod, 603950 Russia

email: mareev@appl.scinnov.ru
c Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Gubkina 8, Moscow, 119991 Russia

email: galin@inm.ras.ru
Received March 23, 2011; in final form, December 26, 2012

Abstract—A coupled chemistry–climate model of both lower and middle atmospheres is used to study vari
ations in the temperature of the atmosphere when its chemical composition is disturbed due to thunderstorm
activity, which results in variations in its local heating and cooling and in atmospheric heat and mass transfer.
The results of model calculations showed that, due to variations in the lightning production of nitrogen oxides
and resulting variations in the concentrations of atmospheric gases, the temperature varies mostly in the lower
and middle stratospheres over both tropical and polar regions. On average, over a period of several decades,
this effect quantitatively amounts to a few tenths of a degree; however, it can reach a few degrees at heights of
the lower stratosphere over Polar regions. The level of the statistical significance of estimates exceeds 0.95
almost within all height ranges for the global lightning production (exceeding 6 TgN/year).

Keywords: chemical composition, atmosphere, lightning production, nitrogen oxides, atmospheric circula
tion, simulation, feedbacks
DOI: 10.1134/S0001433813050137

INTRODUCTION tal studies showed that lightningproduced nitrogen

Lightning is one of the main natural sources of
nitrogen oxides in the atmosphere [1–3]. Since nitro
gen oxides are especially important for the balance of
atmospheric ozone [4] and the processes of forming
polar stratospheric clouds [5], variations in their light
ning production may result in significant variations in
the contents of ozone and other gases in both the lower
and middle atmospheres [6, 7]. There is a natural
uncertainty when climatologically estimating the glo
bal mean lightning production of nitrogen oxides [8,
9] and both its vertical and horizontal variations,
which results in a corresponding uncertainty in esti
mating the effects that both natural and anthropogenic
factors have on the distribution of atmospheric gases
[6, 7].
The estimates of the global annual production of
nitrogen oxides due to thunderstorm activity show its
yeartoyear wide variations, most often within a
range of 2–20 TgN/year [7, 10]. It is very difficult to
determine the narrower range of its values because of
natural variations in the number of lightning flashes
and in the amount of lightninggenerated nitrogen
oxides. The results of both theoretical and experimen
oxides are of great importance in the formation of the
chemical compositions of the troposphere and strato
sphere [11–13]; therefore, most models of atmo
spheric composition began to take into account light
ninginduced nitrogen oxides [14, 15]. The results of
measurements also showed an increase in the contents
of nitrogen gases in regions where thunderstorms often
occur [16, 17]. Earlier the authors of this work also
studied the effect that lightninginduced nitrogen
oxides have on the balance of chemically active gases
in the atmosphere and showed how uncertainties in
estimating this source of atmospheric nitrogen affect
the distribution of ozone and hydroxyl radicals [6, 7].
The results of our studies showed that uncertainties
in estimating lightningproduced nitrogen oxides
retard the improvement of models of atmospheric gas
composition; the development of physical parameter
izations of the effects of nitrogen oxide generation due
to lightning flashes may solve this problem. Atmo
spheric ozone affected by lightningproduced nitro
gen oxides determines stratospheric heating due to
solarradiation absorption and contributes to the
greenhouse effect and to the cooling of the upper tro
posphere and lower stratosphere [4, 18]. Variations in

504
 SIMULATING INDIRECT EFFECTS THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
the content of ozone due to chemical reactions with
the participation of lightninggenerated nitrogen
oxides may result in variations in the radiative balance
and disturbances in the atmospheric general circula
tion. Variations in the regime of atmospheric circula
tion may cause an imbalance in atmospheric gases
subjected to atmospheric transport and variations in
atmospheric heat fluxes.
Variations in the concentrations of radioactive
gases, heating, and circulation conditions may lead to
variations in atmospheric temperature that, in turn,
significantly affects the rates of chemical reactions,
the radiative balance of the atmosphere, and both gen
eral and local atmospheric circulations [4]. Thus, vari
ations in the rate of the lightning production of nitro
gen oxides in the atmosphere not only cause variations
in the chemical composition of the atmosphere, but
also create a potential for the occurrence of feedbacks
between physical and chemical processes in the atmo
sphere.
The objective of this work is to study the effect that
a natural uncertainty in the lightning production of
nitrogen oxides has on variations in atmospheric tem
perature due to variations in the content of ozone with
consideration for feedbacks between variations in the
composition and structure of the atmosphere.
RESEARCH METHODS
Variations in the chemical composition of the
atmosphere affect both radiation and temperature
regimes of the atmosphere, first, because of variations
in atmospheric heating and cooling caused by varia
tions in the concentrations of ozone, water vapor, and
other radioactive gases and, second, because of atmo
spheric heattransfer variations caused by variations in
the radiative balance. In order to take into account
these effects and the resulting feedbacks, it is reason
able to use coupled atmospheric chemistry–climate
models (CCMs) which take into account concurrent
variations in the composition, temperature, and circu
lation of the atmosphere [19].
A global CCM of both the lower and middle atmo
spheres [20], which covers a height range from the land
surface up to 90 km with a variable step in height, was
used in this study. This CCM horizontally covers the
entire globe with uniform steps in latitude (4°) and
longitude (5°) [21]. Wind velocity, temperature, spe
cific humidity, and surface pressure are the dynamic
prognostic variables. The chemical block of this model
takes into account variations in 74 basic gas compo
nents that directly or indirectly affect the rate of atmo
spheric heating [22]. The number and types of photo
chemical reactions taken into account in this model
make it possible to study variations in the basic gases of
the stratosphere, troposphere, and mesosphere.
IZVESTIYA, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS
505
Nitrogen trace gases emitted into the atmosphere
can rapidly be destroyed as a result of chemical reac
tions; however, the total amount of nitrogen, the so
called “odd nitrogen” (NOx), has a long lifetime in the
atmosphere [4, 18]. Thus, variations in the amount of
nitrogen oxides in the atmosphere as a result of varia
tions in thunderstorm activity may affect not only the
region in the vicinity of their source, but also other
regions of the globe. In this work special attention is
given to the effects of lightninginduced nitrogen
oxides in the polar regions, within which they affect
not only the gas composition of the atmosphere, but
also the formation of polar stratospheric clouds
(PSCs) [4]. To this end, a model of variations in both
gas and aerosol components of the stratosphere over
the polar regions was used; this model takes into
account the phase transitions of nitrogen oxides and
their influence on PSCs [5].
In this work, in order to study the effect that light
ningproduced nitrogen oxides have on variations in
atmospheric temperature, in the model’s chemical
block, climatological data on the production of nitro
gen oxides due to lightning flashes were added to data
on the production of odd nitrogen due to other chem
ical and physical processes. The calculated (with con
sideration for this source) concentrations of ozone and
other radioactive gases affect variations in atmospheric
temperature and circulation due to feedbacks.
The rate of the lightning production of odd nitro
gen (LPON) is added to the photochemical rate of
NOx formation at each grid point. In this case, simi
larly to our earlier work [7], in order to calculate the
LPON rate at each point of the model grid, we used
climatological data [9] on both horizontal and sea
sonal LPON distributions, which were normalized to
a given global LPON. The obtained integral (for the
atmospheric column) value of the LPON rate at each
grid point was redistributed over heights on the basis of
data given in [23].
In order to study the effect that a natural uncer
tainty in estimating the LPON has on variations in the
temperature regime, both horizontal and seasonal dis
tributions of odd nitrogen were specified not in abso
lute units corresponding (on the basis of [9]) to a global
production of 12 TgN/year, but in percentage of the
given global LPON. The global lightning production in
model experiments varied from 0 to 60 TgN/year.
Model experiments were carried out for the 1979–
2003 period; being averaged over 25 years, the results
of calculations of variations in the composition and
structure of the atmosphere were analyzed. In this
case, in each of model scenarios, the LPON rate was
retained from year to year; however, within a year it
temporally and spatially varied and retained the per
centage vertical distribution and global production.
When comparing atmospheric characteristics aver
Vol. 49 No. 5 2013
506 SMYSHLYAEV et al.

Globally averaged temperature variability for different atmospheric layers as the global lightning production of nitrogen
oxides increases from 0 TgN/year up to the value indicated in the first column
In atmospheric
0–3 km 3–12 km 12–20 km 20–50 km
Scenario, column
TgN/year variation, signifi variation, signifi variation, signifi variation, signifi variation, signifi
% cance level % cance level % cance level % cance level % cance level
0.00001 0.01 0.43 –0.01 0.25 –0.02 0.53 0.02 0.49 0.01 0.59
0.0001 0.00 0.06 –0.01 0.45 –0.02 0.64 0.01 0.24 0.01 0.24
0.001 –0.00 0.21 –0.00 0.01 0.00 0.13 –0.02 0.60 –0.01 0.45
0.01 –0.00 0.10 –0.02 0.69 –0.04 0.87 –0.01 0.48 0.01 0.36
0.1 0.01 0.66 –0.01 0.49 –0.02 0.48 0.03 0.70 0.02 0.79
0.5 0.00 0.11 –0.01 0.23 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.21 0.00 0.08
1 –0.01 0.65 0.01 0.26 –0.00 0.01 0.03 0.66 –0.02 0.84
2 –0.02 0.77 0.01 0.32 0.00 0.13 0.03 0.66 –0.03 0.95
4 –0.04 0.98 0.01 0.44 0.04 0.94 0.08 0.99 –0.09 1.00
6 –0.07 1.00 0.01 0.41 0.05 0.98 0.11 1.00 –0.14 1.00
8 –0.09 1.00 0.01 0.64 0.05 1.00 0.14 1.00 –0.16 1.00
10 –0.10 1.00 0.02 0.69 0.08 1.00 0.20 1.00 –0.20 1.00
12 –0.11 1.00 0.01 0.24 0.08 1.00 0.23 1.00 –0.22 1.00
14 –0.13 1.00 0.01 0.53 0.10 1.00 0.25 1.00 –0.25 1.00
16 –0.16 1.00 0.02 0.80 0.09 1.00 0.25 1.00 –0.29 1.00
18 –0.15 1.00 0.02 0.58 0.08 0.99 0.26 1.00 –0.28 1.00
20 –0.16 1.00 0.01 0.45 0.08 1.00 0.28 1.00 –0.30 1.00
30 –0.26 1.00 0.02 0.71 0.09 1.00 0.26 1.00 –0.45 1.00
40 –0.38 1.00 0.03 0.73 0.10 1.00 0.20 1.00 –0.61 1.00
50 –0.48 1.00 0.02 0.56 0.07 1.00 0.10 0.94 –0.73 1.00
60 –0.62 1.00 0.02 0.59 0.04 0.97 –0.06 0.76 –0.90 1.00

aged over 25 years, the statistical significance of differ
ences in the contents of gases and in atmospheric radi
ative and dynamic characteristics corresponding to
different global LPON was estimated. The table gives
a list of scenarios, differences in mean characteristics,
and the significance level of means (which was calcu
lated in accordance with Student’s criterion [25]).
RESULTS OF MODEL EXPERIMENTS
Figure 1 and the table give the results of model cal
culations of atmospheric temperature with respect to
the global LPON, which were averaged over the globe
for different height ranges. In order to estimate the
validity of the results obtained, the levels of signifi
cance are given for each of the height ranges and each
value of the global LPON [25]. An analysis of the levels
of significance shows that, at low values of the LPON,
calculated temperature variations (when compared to
the basic version) may be caused by both model and
random errors. Only at a global lightning production
of more than 6 TgN/year can temperature changes be
treated as significant with a high probability almost for
all height ranges.
Different height ranges have strongly different lev
els of significance. In the upper stratosphere, the sig
nificance level becomes sufficiently high at small val
ues of the LPON; in the lower troposphere, tempera
ture deviations are less significant when compared to
other height ranges. This effect is apparently associ
ated with the fact that, within the atmospheric bound
ary layer, the temperature is determined mainly due to
interaction with the underlying surface [26]. In the
upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, tempera
ture variations become significant with a high level at
LPON = 8 TgN/year and more. In this case, in the
lower stratosphere, at high values of the global light
ning production, the significance of temperature devi
ations begins to decrease. This may be associated with
the fact that, at these heights, the local maximum of
the LPON effect (about 20 TgN/year) on temperature
is noted; therefore, at high production values, the
absolute values of temperature variations decrease
and, correspondingly, their significance decreases.

IZVESTIYA, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS Vol. 49 No. 5 2013

 SIMULATING INDIRECT EFFECTS THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
0.4
0.2
Degrees
–0.2
–0.4
–0.6 20–50 km
12–20 km
–0.8 3–12 km
0–3 km
in atmospheric column
–1.0
0 10 20
Global lightning production of nitrogen oxides, TgN/year
Fig. 1. Variations in atmospheric temperature (degrees) on a global scale and for different height ranges under variations in the
global lightning production of nitrogen oxides.
When considering the tendency for temperature to
vary upon an increase in the global LPON, one can note,
first, a stable decrease in the temperature of the upper
stratosphere at a rate of about 0.015° per 1 TgN/year,
which determines the global tendency for a temperature
decrease; second, an increase in the temperature of the
lower stratosphere within the most probable global light
ning production of nitrogen oxides during thunderstorm
phenomena (0–20 TgN/year) up to its maximum on the
order of 0.3° with its further decrease at extremely high
(but possible) values of lightning production (30–
60 TgN/year); and, third, an insignificant and slightly
varying (with an increase in the LPON) increase in the
temperature of both the lower and upper tropospheres.
In this case, the significance of tropospheric tempera
ture variations is low.
In order to study the processes affecting atmo
spheric temperature upon an increase in the global
LPON, Fig. 2 gives curves that show the variations in
the contents of NOx and ozone and in atmospheric
heating and cooling for different height ranges with
respect to the global LPON. During a natural mono
tonic increase in the content of nitric oxides due to an
increase in their lightning production, differences in
the rates of this increase for different heights should be
noted. The maximum rate of increase in the content of
nitrogen oxides is noted in the upper troposphere and
lower stratosphere, within which nitrogen radicals are
mainly generated during thunderstorms [23].
Figure 2b shows the ozone content variation corre
sponding to the NOx increase. In the troposphere,
within which nitric oxides favor the local production
of ozone [26], their increase due to an increase in
IZVESTIYA, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS
507
30 40 50 60
lightning production results in a parallel increase in
the content of ozone, which becomes saturated at
lightningproduction levels of 50 TgN/year and more.
The opposite situation is observed in the upper strato
sphere, within which nitrogen oxides are the main
destroyers of ozone [18, 24], and their increase leads to
a decrease in the concentration of ozone. However,
since the influence that the lightning production has
on the content of nitric oxides is insignificant within
the upper stratosphere (Fig. 2a), the ozone reduction
with an increase in the LPON is not so significant.
In the lower stratosphere, most likely, both pro
cesses compete: (1) ozone generation in the presence
of nitrogen oxides during the oxidation of hydrocar
bons and carbon monoxide, which dominates in the
troposphere, and (2) ozone destruction in nitrogen
catalytic cycles, which dominates in the stratosphere
[4]. As a result, at relatively low LPON rates, the gen
eration of ozone dominates and its content in the
lower stratosphere increases; at sufficiently high
LPON rates, the destruction of ozone dominates and,
hence, its concentration in the lower stratosphere
begins to decrease with an increase in the production
of nitrogen oxides (Fig. 2b). In this case, since a large
portion of atmospheric ozone is concentrated in the
stratosphere [18], its total content varies insignifi
cantly and has a tendency to decrease at high values of
the global LPON.
Figures 2c and 2d show both atmospheric heating
and cooling variations (corresponding to the LPON
variations) which, on the one hand, have a direct local
influence on temperature and, on the other hand, may
result in variations in atmospheric heat and mass
Vol. 49 No. 5 2013
508 SMYSHLYAEV et al.

(a) (b)
NOx Ozone

1400 20–50 km 20–50 km

12–20 km 80 12–20 km
3–12 km 3–12 km
1200 0–3 km 0–3 km
in atmospheric column in atmospheric column
1000 60

Percent
800
Percent

40
600
400 20

200
0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Global production, TgN/year Global production, TgN/year
(c) (d)
Heating Cooling
3
4
2

2 1
Percent
Percent

0 0

20–50 km 20–50 km
12–20 km –1 12–20 km
3–12 km 3–12 km
–2 0–3 km 0–3 km
in atmospheric column in atmospheric column
–2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Global production, TgN/year Global production, TgN/year

Fig. 2. Variations in the integral parameters of the atmosphere under variations in the global lightning production of nitrogen
oxides.

transfer and thus indirectly affect the temperature
regime. On the whole, the atmospheric heating and
cooling variations follow the ozonecontent varia
tions, although in this case they are almost synchro
nous and correspond to the calculated temperature
variations (Fig. 1). This implies that the local thermo
dynamic equilibrium is important for the height
ranges under consideration [26] and that the ozone
content affects both heating and cooling of the lower
and middle atmospheres. In spite of significant varia
tions in the content of tropospheric ozone, both tro
pospheric heating and cooling variations are insignifi
cant, which supports the fact that the underlying sur
face has a stronger influence on the radiative balance
of the troposphere when compared to atmospheric
gases. On the other hand, in the upper stratosphere,
under insignificant variations in the content of ozone,
both stratospheric heating and cooling vary signifi
cantly, which supports the known proposition that
ozone has a dominating effect on the radiation regime
of the stratosphere [4].
In order to analyze both spatial and temporal fea
tures of temperature variations with an increase in the
LPON, scenarios with significant (and close to real)
values of the global lightning production were chosen.
Therefore, further analysis was made for lighting pro
ductions of 10 TgN/year (which results in temperature
variations with a high significance level and which is in
the middle of the most probable values of the global
production) and 20 TgN/year (which corresponds to
the maximum warming of the lower stratosphere).

IZVESTIYA, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS Vol. 49 No. 5 2013

 SIMULATING INDIRECT EFFECTS THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY 509

December–February March–May
60 60
1.0

2 .0

1.0
2.0

1.0
50 50

2.0
40 5.0 40
5.0

Height, km
Height, km

30 30
10.0 10.0
2 0. 0 2 0. 0
20 0 20
50. 0 200.00.0 0
50..0 0.0 500.0
. 50
100 100 20
10 10
100.0
0 100.050.0
2050.
.0
10.0 0.0.05.0
120
2.501.0.0 .0
21.0
0 0
–90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90 –90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90
Latitude Latitude

June–August September–November
60 60
0.0 1.0
1.0

2.0
5 .0
50 50
2.0
40 40
5.0
Height, km

Height, km

30 30
1 0 .0 10.0
20.
20 .0 20 0
20
50.0 500.0 5 0 .0 500.0
10 10
0.0
2010
20100.000.0 5 00..00
50.20.0 202.05.0
10.0
5.0 2.0
1.0 .01.0
0 0
–90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90 –90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90
Latitude Latitude

Fig. 3. Percentage variations in the concentration of odd nitrogen as the lightning production of nitrogen oxides increases from 0
to 10 TgN/year.

Figure 3 shows the height and latitude percentage
variations in the atmospheric content of odd nitrogen,
which were calculated for the LPON increased from 0
to 10 TgN/year. The maximum effect is observed in the
tropical upper troposphere–lower stratosphere during
all seasons. Nonhomogeneous latitudinal variations in
the concentration of nitrogen oxides are observed in
the middle and upper stratospheres. Seasonal varia
tions are characterized by the zones (shifted to the
Southern Hemisphere) of maximally increased nitro
gen oxide concentrations in the tropical upper tropo
sphere and by a decrease in the concentrations of
nitrogen gases in the Antarctic middle stratosphere
during the polar night. This latter effect may be associ
ated with the accelerated processes of gravitational
precipitation of polar stratospheric cloud particles
because of an increase in their size (due to the absorp
tion of an additional amount of nitricacid vapor) and
some increase in the contents of nitrogen components
during Antarctic spring, which can be explained by the
evaporation of polar stratospheric clouds and the
release of nitricacid vapor.
Such an increase in the content of nitrogen compo
nents in the Antarctic lower stratosphere may result,
on the one hand, in an increase in the surface area of

IZVESTIYA, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS Vol. 49 No. 5 2013

510 SMYSHLYAEV et al.
polar stratospheric clouds and, on the other hand, in a
decreased denitrification of the polar stratosphere,
which is important for the formation of ozone hole [5].
Thus, in considering the LPON effect on the content
of atmospheric ozone, in addition to purely chemical
effects of the increased production of ozone in the tro
posphere and its destruction in the stratosphere [7], it
is also necessary to take into consideration indirect
effects.
Figure 4 shows the ozoneconcentration variations
for the lightning production of nitrogen oxides
increasing from 0 to 10 TgN/year on the basis of model
calculations. The height distribution of the variability
of ozone, on the whole, corresponds to the theoretical
notions of different effects that nitrogen oxides have
on ozone in the lower and middle atmospheres [18]. In
the troposphere and lower stratosphere, within which
nitrogen oxides favor the generation of ozone, the
additional production of nitrogen oxides due to thun
derstorm phenomena results in a significant increase
in the content of ozone; in the middle stratosphere,
within which the nitrogen catalytic cycles are the main
sink of ozone, its content decreases.
The results of an analysis of seasonal variations in
ozone upon an increase in the LPON show that, in the
polar regions, a decrease in the content of ozone in the
upper stratosphere during the Antarctic polar night is
noted, as is an increase in its concentration during the
development of a spring anomaly. This effect with con
sideration for an increase in the contents of nitrogen
components implies that a denitrification decrease
proves to be more significant for the ozone hole than
an increase in the surface area of stratospheric polar
clouds. Such a denitrification decrease results in a
retardation of ozone depletion in both chlorine and
bromine catalytic cycles [5], which favors an increase
in the content of ozone in the spring Antarctic strato
sphere despite the intensification of chlorine activa
tion on stratospheric polar clouds increased in area.
Variations in the content of ozone at any point may
result in corresponding variations either in local heat
ing of the atmosphere or in its cooling [26]. Resulting
variations in the radiative balance may cause atmo
sphericcirculation variations leading to the redistri
bution of heat and mass. Figure 5 gives calculated vari
ations in the rate of atmospheric heating. A significant
increase in atmospheric cooling is observed during
polar spring and summer in the polar lower strato
sphere over both hemispheres. The spring period is
characterized by the formation of ozone holes in the
atmosphere [5]. Increased heating may cause a faster
increase in the temperature of the polar stratosphere,
the evaporation of polar stratospheric clouds, circum
polarvortex destruction, and the ozonehole being
filled in. Thus, the conditions are formed for a positive
feedback, when increasing the content of ozone in the
IZVESTIYA, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS
spring Antarctic stratosphere causes its heating, which
speeds up the filling in of the ozone hole, i.e., results in
a further increase in the concentration of ozone.
However, increasing the content of ozone may also
increase stratospheric cooling, which may compensate
for heating. In this case, atmospheric cooling is deter
mined not only by the content of ozone, but also by the
contents of other radioactive gases and by tempera
ture. These parameters also vary when the chemical
composition of the atmosphere is disturbed by light
ning discharges, and the total effect is determined by
all influencing factors and possible feedbacks. Figure 6
shows the variations in atmospheric cooling that cor
respond to the variations in atmospheric composition
when the lightning production of nitrogen oxides is
added. On the whole, the effect that lightning dis
charges have on atmospheric cooling is stronger than
that on atmospheric heating. In this case, one should
keep in mind that positive variations in cooling corre
spond to its decrease, because cooling is negative and
it compensates for positive heating.
Thus, the calculation results given in Fig. 6 show
that decreasing atmospheric cooling is noted in the
tropical lower stratosphere throughout the year and its
increase is noted in the Antarctic stratosphere.
Increasing Antarctic stratospheric cooling becomes
most pronounced during the polar night and spring.
Within the lower stratosphere, for which the assump
tion of local thermodynamic equilibrium is valid [4],
the predominance of variations in cooling over those
in heating implies that, in regions with increased cool
ing, the downward motions of air masses will be inten
sified and, in regions with decreased cooling, addi
tional upward airflows that favor a decrease in the con
tent of ozone will occur. In this case, downward
airflows create conditions for the accumulation of
ozone.
In accordance with the mass conservation law,
which is observed in similar models due to the conti
nuity equation, variations in vertical airflows must be
compensated for by horizontal motions. Figure 7
shows variations in the divergence of latitudinal heat
flux when the lightning production of nitrogen oxides
varies from 0 to 10 TgN/year. The noticeable variations
in horizontal heat transfer, which characterize those in
the atmospheric general circulation, are noted in the
region of formation of a circumpolar vortex, i.e., at the
boundary between the polar and middle latitudes,
which is especially pronounced in Antarctic winter
and spring. In this case, the predominance of negative
flux variations implies an air inflow into the Antarctic
region, i.e., relaxing the condition of isolation of the
Antarctic atmosphere inside the circumpolar vortex
and a faster filling in its region as a result of spring
warming.
Vol. 49 No. 5 2013
 SIMULATING INDIRECT EFFECTS THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY 511

December–February March–May
60 60

–0 0.0

0.0
.5
50 50

0 .5
1.0
40 40
–0.50.0

–2.
Height, km
Height, km

0
30 30 –1.0
10..–

–1.0
0 1.0
5.2001.00.5–
.5 .5
20 10.0 20 12.0.00
5.0
2 0.
5 0. 0 0 2100.0.0
10 10
50 .0
.0 20
0 0
–90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90 –90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90
Latitude Latitude

June–August September–November
60 60

50 50 0 .0
1.0

0
0.

–0.5
40 –0.5 0 40

0.0
0.5
.
–1 –
00..50 0.5 –1.0
Height, km

Height, km

30 30 1.
0.05.0

00.0.5 2.0 0
5.0
20 1. 0
2.0 20 10 . 0
5.0 .0
10 20.0
20 . 0
50.0
10 10
50.0

0 0
–90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90 –90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90
Latitude Latitude

Fig. 4. Percentage variations in the concentration of ozone as the lightning production of nitrogen oxides increases from 0 to
10 TgN/year.

Figure 8 shows the variations in atmospheric tem
perature due to all processes associated with the
LPON increasing from 0 to 10 TgN/year. On the
whole, the variations in temperature are characterized
by its increase in the troposphere and lower strato
sphere and its decrease in the middle and upper strato
spheres. In this case, in polar regions, the temperature
variations have some special features. In particular, in
the Antarctic stratosphere, the temperature decreases
during the polar night and it increases in spring; in the
Arctic region, in winter and spring, upper strato
spheric cooling and lower stratospheric warming are
noted and the boundary between positive and negative
variations goes down from winter towards spring.
These effects may be associated, on the one hand, with
the ratio between stratospheric heating and cooling,
because there is no heating in polar winter and it
occurs only in spring, and, on the other hand, with the
dynamic effects of the circumpolarvortex isolation
weakening and the stratospheric warming in spring
intensifying (Fig. 7).
It is evident that temperature increasing during the
polar night in the Arctic region cannot be explained by
increased stratospheric heating due to an increase in

IZVESTIYA, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS Vol. 49 No. 5 2013

512 SMYSHLYAEV et al.

December–February March–May
60 60

0
0

1
50 50 0
0 0
40 40

–1
Height, km
–1
Height, km

–1

1
30 30 0
0
2
1

4
20 6 20
4

2
8 6

1
10 2 10 4
0 1 12
0 0 0
0 0 0
–90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90 –90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90
Latitude Latitude

June–August September–November
60 60

0
50 50

0
0
21

40 40
0
Height, km
Height, km

30 30
0 1
2
0

20 20 4
2 4
4
1 6 4
10 10
241 21
0
0 0 0 0
0 0
–90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90 –90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90
Latitude Latitude

Fig. 5. Variations in atmospheric heating (%) as the lightning production of nitrogen oxides increases from 0 to 10 TgN/year.

the content of ozone, because there is no solarradia
tion influx during this period and, correspondingly,
atmospheric heating does not change. The reason for
such an increase in stratospheric temperature during
the polar night (June–August) may be an increase in
latitudinal heat influx into the Arctic region from
other latitudes (Fig. 7). Such a change in the heat
influx occurs due to variations in the conditions of glo
bal meridional circulation as a response to the shifted
balance between the heating and cooling of the atmo
sphere when its chemical composition is disturbed by
lightning flashes. Unlike the Arctic, in the Antarctic
stratosphere, a slight cooling is noted during the polar
night. This may be explained by stratospheric cooling
in the absence of heating under a stable circumpolar
vortex (Fig. 6), as well as by less significant variations
in the divergence of heat flux in the lower stratosphere
during the polar night.
The warming of the polar stratosphere in the Ant
arctic during spring cannot be explained by the
increasing latitudinal heat influx (Fig. 7); however,

IZVESTIYA, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS Vol. 49 No. 5 2013

 SIMULATING INDIRECT EFFECTS THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY 513

December–February March–May
60 60

0
–1
–2
0
50 50 1
– 2
–
40 40
Height, km

Height, km
30 30

6
–2
01 –1
2 –1
20 64 81012 4 20 021 68 1012
8 2 6
1

8
0
10 10 42
0 01
0 0
0
0
0 0 01
–90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90 –90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90
Latitude Latitude

June–August September–November
60 60
1 0
0

–1
0

50 –1 50
0

40 40
0 –1

0
Height, km
Height, km

1 –1
30 1 30 2
2
4
20 68 20 8
4 6
1 0
10 10
0 120
021 2 0
0 01 0
0 0
–90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90 –90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90
Latitude Latitude

Fig. 6. Variations in atmospheric cooling (%) as the lightning production of nitrogen oxides increases from 0 to 10 TgN/year. The
positive values correspond to a decrease in cooling and the negative values correspond to its increase.

due to resumed atmospheric solar heating during this
period, the balance between the local heating and
cooling of the polar stratosphere begins to play a sig
nificant role (Figs. 5, 6). In this case, during the spring
period, both an increase in the shortwave heating of
the stratosphere (Fig. 5) and a decrease in its cooling
(Fig. 6) occur in the Antarctic. Thus, increasing the
temperature of the Antarctic stratosphere in Septem
ber–November may be explained, to a greater extent,
by local variations in atmospheric heating and cooling.
Differences in the response of the temperature of
the lower stratosphere to variations in the global
LPON in both the Northern and Southern hemi
spheres may be explained by differences in the atmo
spheric general circulations between these hemi
spheres [18]. Atmospherictemperature variations in
response to variations in the LPON rate are caused not
by direct local effects, but by variations in heat and
mass transfer. Thus, temperature variations during the
polar winter in the absence of atmospheric solar heat

IZVESTIYA, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS Vol. 49 No. 5 2013

514 SMYSHLYAEV et al.

December–February March–May
60 60
–2

0
1
–1

0
50 50

0
40 40

4
–2 ––5

0
– 1 –2
Height, km
–1
Height, km

0
30 30

–1
1

20 20

1
0
10 10

0
0 0

0
0
0

0
0 0 0 0
–90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90 –90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90
Latitude Latitude

June–August September–November
60 60

0
–1
–2

50 50
0
1

40
0

40
––4 5

–1 –2
0

–4 5
Height, km

Height, km

–
0

30 30
0

–2

20 20
0
0

10 10
0

0
0

0 0
0

0 0
–90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90 –90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90
Latitude Latitude

Fig. 7. Variations in the latitudinal divergence of heat flux (%) as the lightning production of nitrogen oxides increases from 0 to
10 TgN/year (positive southtonorth direction).

ing are determined completely by variations in heat
influx due to atmospheric circulation. In the Northern
Hemisphere, the increase in air temperature during
the polar winter implies a heat influx with a LPON
increase due to an unstable circumpolar vortex. In the
Southern Hemisphere, the decrease in the air temper
ature implies a cooling increase under a stable circum
polar vortex upon an increase in the lightning produc
tion of NOx. During the spring period, airtempera
ture variations result from combined variations in local
heating and heat influx.
In order to study the heightlatitude features of
temperature variations for the lightning production of
nitrogen oxides, which correspond to the maximum
increase in the lower stratosphere (Fig. 1), Fig. 9 gives
the results of a calculation of atmospherictempera
ture variations as the global LPON rate varies from 0 to
20 TgN/year. It should be noted that the maximum
lowerstratospheric warming that exceeds 1 K is
mainly due to a temperature increase in the polar lati
tudes. In this case, decreasing the temperature of the
lower stratosphere over both hemispheres is noted dur
ing the polar winter, which partially decreases the glo
bal effect. This may be caused by an increase in the
cooling of the polar lower stratosphere in the absence
of heating under a stable circumpolar vortex.

IZVESTIYA, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS Vol. 49 No. 5 2013

 SIMULATING INDIRECT EFFECTS THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY 515

December–February March–May
60 60

.1
.2

–0.2 0.5

–0.
–0.5

.00
–0

00.1
–
0.1
50 50

–1.0.5
0
–
40 – 0. 40

Height, km
Height, km

1.0
0.1
25
30 30
5

0.
–0
10..5– –0.2
0.

.50 .1
1

20 0 0.1.2 0.2 20 –0
00.0

1. 0
0.5
..21
10 0 .1 10 0.1

0 .2
0 0
–90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90 –90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90
Latitude Latitude

June–August September–November
60 60
0.2 0.1.0
0 .5 0

.1
–0 . 2 1
–0.2

00.2
–0.01.0.

.2 0
–0 –
50 50
––00..00.2
0.12

40 40
–0.1
Height, km

Height, km

0.5

30 30
0.0

–0.5 –0.5
20 0.0 0.1 20
0.1

0.1 0 .2
10 0. 2 0.5 10
0. 2 0.1
0.1
0 0
–90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90 –90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90
Latitude Latitude

Fig. 8. Variations in atmospheric temperature (degrees) as the lightning production of nitrogen oxides increases from 0 to
10 TgN/year.

CONCLUSIONS concentration of ozone in the lower stratosphere,

The results of this study show that variations in the
lightning production of nitrogen oxides and resulting
variations in the concentrations of radioactive gases
cause temperature variations mostly in the lower and
middle stratospheres. This effect may reach a few
degrees, on average, over a period of a few decades.
Temperature variations generally follow variations in
the concentration of ozone and they are determined
by a competitive interaction between an increase in the
which results in warming, and its decrease in the upper
stratosphere, which results in cooling.
The most significant temperature variations are
noted in the tropical zone and polar regions. In polar
regions, the most significant temperature variations
are noted during the polar night and in spring after the
sun returns. During the polar night, in the absence of
local heating, temperature variations may be associ
ated with variations in local cooling and variations in

IZVESTIYA, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS Vol. 49 No. 5 2013

516 SMYSHLYAEV et al.

December–February March–May
60 60

0..52

0.1..012
.00021.5

0.
–0.000.

–0.2
1–

0
–
50 50

–1. .5
–

0
–0
40 40

1.0
Height, km

Height, km
0.5
30 30

00.0.1.2
–0.5
–0
0...1.–0.2
5 –
0.00–0.1
20 000.–
5200.1 0.5 20 .2
0.2 0.1

1.0
0.0
0.5

0.5
10 10

2
0.
0 0
–90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90 –90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90
Latitude Latitude

June–August September–November
60 60

0.000.1.2
0.0

–0.1 –0
0.1
0.0

50 –0. 50 .2
2
–0.1
–0.2

.2
–0.5

–0
40 40

0.0
–1.0
Height, km

Height, km

30 30 –0.5
.5

20 20 0.5
–0

–0.2 .1 ––0.02.1
–0 0.10.00.2
10 0.2 0.5 10
0 .0 0.1 00.1.0
0.2

0 0
–90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90 –90 –60 –30 0 30 60 90
Latitude Latitude

Fig. 9. Variations in atmospheric temperature (degrees) as the lightning production of nitrogen oxides increases from 0 to
20 TgN/year.

the influx or outflux of heat due to atmospheric circu
lation. During the polar spring, when ozone anomalies
are developing, temperature variations are most prob
ably associated with variations in heat flux and in
atmospheric local heating due to variations in the con
centration of ozone.
Variations in the thermodynamic conditions of the
upper troposphere, within which thunderstorm phe
nomena occur, create a potential for feedbacks
between variations in the atmospheric composition
due to lightning activity, resulting temperature varia
tions, and the corresponding variations in the condi
tions for the occurrence of lightning discharges. The
results of model studies showed that, in terms of mean
climatic conditions, temperature variations in the
upper troposphere over the tropical latitudes, for
which the number of thunderstorms is maximal, are
not significant. However, in some years variations in
the lightning production of nitrogen oxides within
natural variability may result in the creation of condi
tions under which the temperature of the upper tropo
sphere may either increase or decrease by a few

IZVESTIYA, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS Vol. 49 No. 5 2013

 SIMULATING INDIRECT EFFECTS THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
degrees, which may lead to variations in the conditions
of formation of lightning discharges and, correspond
ingly, to the occurrence of feedbacks.
In connection with this, increasing the accuracy in
estimating the rate of formation of nitrogen oxides
under lightning discharges becomes urgent, as does
using theoretical parameterizations (instead of clima
tological data) in the models of gas composition and
atmospheric general circulation, which make it possi
ble to take into account the local features of lightning
effects and the resulting formation of nitrogen oxides.
In addition, it should be noted that the lightning effect
on the chemical composition of the atmosphere may
be regarded as an example of an indirect effect on the
structure of the atmosphere even at slight variations in
its composition. Other disturbances of the chemical
composition of atmospheric gases may also result in
variations in the chemical, radiative, and dynamic
characteristics of the atmosphere, which requires fur
ther study on the basis of interactive models of atmo
spheric chemistry, radiation, and dynamics.
One possible direction for the further development
of this study may be a direct consideration for the radi
ative properties of nitrogen dioxide, which are usually
neglected, because their contribution to the radiative
balance upon background concentrations of nitrogen
components is insignificant against the background of
other radioactive gases. However, upon increased con
centrations of nitrogen dioxide, for example, in the
zones of increased thunderstorm activity, the signifi
cance of the radiative properties of nitrogen dioxide
may rapidly increase [27], which may result in an
increase in the significance of the direct effect that
nitrogen oxides have on atmospheric temperature.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This work was supported by the Russian govern
ment (grant no. 11.G34.31.0078), the Russian Foun
dation for Basic Research (projects no. 110501201
a, 100501045a, and 110512055ofim2011),
and the Federal Target Program “Scientific and Scien
tificPedagogical Personnel for an Innovative Russia”
for 2009–2013 (state contract no. 14.B37.21.0587).
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Translated by B. Dribinskaya
Vol. 49 No. 5 2013