Basic concepts of probability

Statprob Team
Faculty of Engineering
Universitas Indonesia
 Test 1
► ELO 1 Test
► Chapter 1 and 2
► Date: 20 March 2021, Saturday 13.00 WIB
 Outlines
► Concept and basic definition
► Probability of compound events
► Enumeration
 Concept and basic definition
► Definitions:
 Experiment: any process that generates a set of
data.
 Sample space, S: collection of all possible
outcomes of an experiment
 Outcome of an experiment: the result of the
observation (a sample point/Element/member)
 Event: a subset of a sample space
 The complement of an event A (A’) with respect
to S is the subset of all elements of S that are
not in A.
 Concept and basic definition
► Definitions:
 The intersection of two events A and B, denoted
by the symbol A ∩ B, is the event containing all
elements that are common to A and B.
 The union of the two events A and B, denoted
by the symbol A ∪ B, is the event containing all
the elements that belong to A or B or both.
► Venn diagram
► Figure: Events represented by various regions.
A ∪ C = regions 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7,
B’ ∩ A = regions 4 and 7,
A ∩ B ∩ C = region 1,
(A ∪ B) ∩ C ‘ = regions 2, 6, and 7,
 Konsep dan Definisi
Example:
Experiment:
- Draw a card from the deck
Sample space:
- All of cards #52
Event:
- Let event A : draw a card of heart (H),
thus event A might denote as
A = {2H, 3H, 4H, 5H, 6H, 7H, 8H, 9H, 10H, JH, QH, KH, AH}

Diagram Venn
 Concept & Definition
► Suppose that three items are selected at random from a
manufacturing process. Each item is inspected and classified
defective, D, or nondefective, N.
► S = {DDD, DDN, DND, DNN, NDD, NDN, NND, NNN}.
 Event A: one item is defective, so then A = {DNN, NDN,
NND}

In some experiments, it is helpful to

list the elements of the sample space
systematically by means of a
tree diagram.
 Probability: Definitions
► Number from 0 – 1 that dealt with an event
 1  greatest possibility to happen
 0  impossible to happen
► Classic definition: P(A) = fA/N
 Event A happens in f ways from a total of N
ways.
► Relative frequency
 Experiment is held in infinite ways
 Concept & Definition

Example:
In games of card. One deck of card with total
52 cards there are 4 aces card.
Thus probability of getting one ace card :
P(As) = 4/52 = 1/13 = 0,077
 Probability of compound event
Definition
 Compound event is combination of two or more
simple events
 There are 3 kind of compound events (involve &
B ):
 Event A happened after event B
 P(A|B)
 Both A and B are happened
 P(A and B) = P(A B)
 One of event happened
 P(A or B) = P(A B)
Operation with events
► Independent vs dependent event
► Mutually exclusive vs non mutually exclusive
 P.49
 Compound Event
Independent events anddependent
 Two events A and B are independent if event A
does not affect event B
 On contrary, if event A affect event B then A
dependent to B

 For independent event A to B :

P( A | B)  P( A) dan juga P( B | A)  P( B)
 Compound Event
Mutually Exclusive Event

 Event A and B are mutually exclusive if A and B do

not happened altogether/ cannot both occur
simultaneously or disjoint, if A ∩ B = φ, that is, if A
and B have no elements in common.
 On contrary, if event A and B shall happnened
altogether then A and B are not mutually exclusive
 If event A and B mutually exclusive, then:
 P( A dan B)  P( A  B)  0 artinya juga P( A | B)  0
Probability of compound event
Mutually Exclusive
 Diagram Venn of mutually exclusive and non mutually
exclusive

A A
B B
 Probability of compound events
►A unification of two or more simple events
► Conditional probability
 Event A happen given that B has already happen
 Example 3.5
word 0.6 P(A)
sheet 0.4 P(B)
both 0.3 P(A n B)

► Probabilitythat the computer already

equipped with word and spreadsheet?
► Conditional probability
 0.3/0.4
 Laws of compound events
► Multiplication law
 Independent law
 Dependent law
► Addition law
Probability of compound event
Compound event laws:

Multiplication laws – Independent events

If A,B,C are independent events, the joint probability
P(ABC ...) is multuplication of each event.
Probability of compound event
Compound event laws:
Addition law
Probability of event A or B or both is defined by
addition law:
P( A atau B )  P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)

Continued Reapplication:

P( A atau B atau C )  P( A  B  C )
 P( A)  P( B)  P(C )
 P( A  B)  P( A  C )  P( B  C )
 P( A  B  C )
 Bayes Theorem
► Relates the conditional probability and
multiplication rule of events A and events B,
where B has non vanishing probability
 Probability of compound event
Bayes’ Theorem
 Extension of conditional probability and multiplication
law
 Let events B1, B2, ..., Bn
 Mutually exclusive
 Exhaustive  compunding a sample space

 Then probability of event A is determined by summing

probability of P(A  Bi) for value i

n n
P( A)   P( A  Bi )   P( Bi )  P( A | Bi )
i 1 i 1
Probability of compound event
 Probability of compound event
Bayes’ Theorem
 If A is happened
 Probability of every Bi is determined by Bayes theorem:

P( Bi  A) P( Bi ) P( A | Bi ) P( Bi ) P( A | Bi )
P( Bi | A)   n  n
P( A)
 P( Bi ) P( A | Bi )  P( Bi  A)
i 1 i 1

Teknik Mesin – FTUI

 Dr. Ir. Harinaldi, M.Eng
Example:

Supplier I, II, III, and IV provide all bearing bush for Sumber Teknik by a
composition of 25 %, 35 %, 10 % & 30 %. The record states that supplier I,
II, III, & IV sent 80 %, 95 %, 70 % & 90 % bearing with good quality.
Therefore, probability of failure bearing shall be calculated in following:
Let A = event of selecting the defective bearing and B1, B2, B3, & B4 are
event of the selected bearing is from supplier I, II, III, & IV. Then:

4 4
P( A)   P( A  Bi )   P( Bi )  P( A | Bi )
i 1 i 1

 0, 25(0, 2)  0,35(0, 05)  0,1(0,3)  0,3(0,1)

 0,1275
Additionaly, the probability of selected defective bearing
came from vendor III is:

P ( B3  A) 0, 03
P ( B3 | A)    0, 2353
P ( A) 0,1275
 Enumeration techniques
► Tree
► Combinatorial
 Permutation
 Combination
Enumeration Technique: Probability Tree

Probability Tree
Graphical tool shall help and evaluate
corresponding probability:
Enumeration Technique : Combinatorial Analysis

Permutation
A permutation of n different objects to be selected r
object is number of arrangement r object from n
object by referring its sequential.

Defined as:

where: n! = n(n-1)(n-2) ….(2)(1) and 0! =1

Enumeration Technique : Combinatorial Analysis

Combination
A combination of n different object to be
selected by r object is number of
arrangement r object from n object without
regard to sequential/order

Defined:
 Homework
1. Three members of the organization are nominated to be chairman. The
chance for Mas Mbappe to be chosen is 0.3, the chance for Pak Perisic to be
chosen is 0.5, while the chance for Pak Lukaku to be chosen is 0.2. If Mas
Mbappe is chosen, then the chance of increasing the member fee is 0.8. If
Pak Perisic or Pak Lukaku are selected, the chances of increasing the
member fee are 0.1 and 0.4, respectively.
a) What is the probability that the contribution will increase?
b) If Mas Kane plans to become a member of the organization but delays
it and finds out that the fee has increased, what is the probability that
Pak Perisic is the chosen chairman?
c) What is the probability of Mas Mbappe as the chosen chairman, if Mas
Kane finds out that the fee is not increasing?
 Homework
2. Suppose an insurance company categorizes people into three classes: low
risk, moderate risk, and high risk. Based on the data, it is known that the
chances of a person submitting a claim with low, moderate , and high risks
for one year are 0.05, 0.15, and 0.3, respectively. It is also known that in
the population there is a 20% low risk, 50% moderate risk, and 30% high
risk.
a) If it is known that within one year the policyholder X does not file a
claim, using the Bayes theorem, what is the probability that he is a
low risk?
b) If the policyholder Y file a claim, what is the probability that he is a
high risk?
 Homework
3. A company in South Jakarta leases three local hotels to provide overnight
accommodation for its clients. Past experience shows that 20% of clients
are assigned rooms at the Santiki, 52% at the Amaros, and 28% at the PIP!
Hotel. If 5% of the rooms at the Santiki, 4% of the rooms at the Amaros,
and 8% of the rooms at the PIP! Hotel have faulty plumbing, what is the
probability that
a) A client will be assigned a room with faulty plumbing?
b) a person with a room having faulty plumbing was assigned
accommodations at the PIP! Hotel?
c) a person with a room having faulty plumbing was assigned
accommodations at the Santiki?