WMD Terrorism Science and Policy Choices edited by Stephen M. Maurer “The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England 2OoFContents Preface ix 1. Inrroduction: Worrying about WMD Terrorism 1 Stephen M. Maurer 2. Profiling the WMD Terrorism Threat 11 Jeffrey M. Bale and Gary A. Ackerman 3. Technologies of Evil: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Weapons 47 Stephen M. Maurer 4 The New Bioweapons: Infectious and Engineered Diseases 111 George W. Rutherford and Stephen M. Maurer 5 The Indispensable Technology: Detectors for Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical WMD 139 Simon Labov and Tom Slezak 6 Secating America’s Borders and Ports 169 ‘Michael Nacht and Blas Pérez: Hentiquez Assessing Threats and Identifying Cost Effective Responses to 191 ‘Thomas Edmunds and Richard Wheelee 8 Weapons of Mass Destruction: Are Our Political Institutions Adapting? 211 Eugene Bardech 9. Responding to WMD Terrorism Threats: The Role of Insurance Markets 251 Dwigit Jaflee and Thomas Russell 410 The Fire Next Time: Managing Large Urban Fires 287 ‘Stephen M. Maurer, Jason C. Christopher, and Michael Thompson9 © Responding to WMD Terrorism Threats: The Role ©. of Insurance Markets ‘Dwight Jafive and Thomas Russell Insurance offece three important heneis that ean help an economy dl with the © catastrophic losses that arse from both natural disasters and manmade evens: risk sharing, mitigation and price discovery. Rick sharing isthe direct benefit of insor- ance, where those a sk fom an eveot pey a relatively small annon! premium 10 tan insurer, which later uses its accumulated funds to reimburve thore paris thar © eaffer actual losses. Risk sharing per se, however, does not reduce the physical losses from the event. Nevers, riot conor setivites and industrzs could not op ‘erate without the beneite of insurance oF a coraparable government program. For trample, inthe absence of auto insurance, a fasily could be readily barkrupted if fs forily member were held able for 2 large sum due to 2 cerns anno accident. As 4 results unclear how the automobile industry could have developed unless the Tiskrahasing boufits of insurance were avilable ro eliminate this risk of personal nancial disaster. We wil se in section 9.1 hat insurance plays as irpportat 2 role in sharing the ecovomic risks erated by terrorist attacks osing weapons of mass de- struction a+ does with che dsily rks of autonobie driving. “Mitigation i 2 second benefit of insurance, whereby insured partie take actions to reduce teis expected loses in order to obtain lower premiums. The incentive 10 rmitigate is eneated by risk-based premitons, whereby cach inared party pays = pre= | lum commersurate with bis or he isk, For example, when insurers charge Prop- erty owners Lower premiums if they protect theic buildings from teroxst attacks, this gives owners an incentive ro cary out this eigation. In contrast, providing {asurance without viccbaved premise actually deers mitigation activity, since the insured parnes pay the sume insurance premium and ate covered for thes losses ‘whether or net they mitigate. In ection 9.3.4, we dscns specific issues of mitiaa~ tion as they cla to terrorist attacks, Trice discovery, meaning that Sacarance premiums offer 2 marker determined quantification ofan insured rk, the ted fundamental beret of well functioning thourance markets. 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I also vomeines soggesed cha eros are sratepic in Ueis choice of targets and {hat this comphcatrs the process of computing event probable (Wile et al. 20081 How ever, if we can decipher the specie seazegy employed by terror thea this should actully faciate the deearmination of event probablites, Or, i we cannot Jzopher the speci stat, xy, then the Gsiibution of acral erens shouldbe cbservaionally eqitsient tothe nper of stochastic processes that Mother Narure emgloys in creating natural daahers, 24, See Zanjani 2006 fora recent analysis ofthe Cabfornia Earthquake Authority. 25, LIBOR scands for The London Interbask Offered Rate. This interest rat is eoesmoaly lied as he standard agaist which othe: interes rates are measore. 26. In technical cers, natural disasess might be considered “revo bets” or “low beta” rss, singe they tend to be uncorrelated with ether factor that induce stock prices According es the capil asset pacing mode, ivestos should be witig to pey premium peice tobe ‘cures with low or zero betas. This argument woul age however apply to terrors rks co the extent thar they ate considered mote akely to alt the stack market inf macro. ‘conan 27. The owners of trophy budings i ey centers wil face higher premiums for thee teers. {sm insurance, and may 2ls0 be forced to acept lower rents in order to herp the tesuats from choozing sfer locations ix buldings tat are smaller andjoc further tencved from the siiy cone. 25, Kunceather end Heal 2003 discuss a case in which the bends of mitgation requires ‘muaneous group scion, 80 tha if ene party fas to carry oaths share, the groupas a whale ‘has ess incestive to mitigate. 22. Aa even more dzeet mechanism would be to hold the tevoces lable, but the paper ‘assumes ths isnot pousble 30. Such am arrangement was part ofthe House version of TRIPRA (HR 2761) bur wat dropped fro the fal lepsation. 31, North Dakota, Ohio, Peero Rio, the US. Virgin Inlands, Washington, and Wyoming. 32. Arizona, Califeeri, Colorado, Who, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, New ‘York, Oklahoma, Oregon, Fecnsyivania, and Utah. 33, This coald only bappen in the United States, since comparable plans in Eutopein coun ‘ties all charge a fe. There it an explanation: gras goverment rinerance could be icer- reed a8 an export cbidy, which European Usion rales prokibs. 34. A sve in ths general form ws propose inthe U.S. Homie of Representative ax H.R. 846, the Homeowners Insrance Avallibiity Act of 2005, but di wot pass.Separation page