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Estimation of Rainfall Thresholds For Landslide Ocurrences in Kalimpong, India 2018
Estimation of Rainfall Thresholds For Landslide Ocurrences in Kalimpong, India 2018
https://doi.org/10.1007/s41062-018-0132-9
TECHNICAL NOTE
Abstract
The Indian Himalayan locale has been essentially influenced by the increase in the frequency of landslide events. Out of
0.42 million km2 of India’s landmass prone to landslides, 42% falls in the North East Himalaya, especially Darjeeling and
Sikkim. The harm due to landslides is massive, causing loss of life, property and agricultural land, thus initiating a dire need
for formulating strategies to minimize its impact. There have been many attempts to establish rainfall thresholds on global,
regional and local scales which compare analysis at various levels. Rainfall thresholds anticipate landslide occurrence and
help in issuing a warning to civil authorities and the general population. However, empirical relations defining the relation-
ship between landslide occurrences and rainfall events in Kalimpong remain unattended. In this paper, rainfall thresholds
for landslide occurrence have been ascertained for Kalimpong area of Darjeeling Himalayas, in the Indian province of West
Bengal. A threshold for landslide occurrences which describes intensity–duration threshold was estimated using the power
law equation. The relationship for the study area is I = 3.52 D−0.41 (I is rainfall intensity (mm/h) and D is duration (h)).
Results show that events with a rainfall intensity of 0.95 mm/h with a duration of 24 h have a high risk of slide initiation in
this region. It also demonstrates that for 10- and 20-day antecedent rainfall, an intensity of 88.37 and 133.5 mm is required
for landslide occurrence in this region. Such data would help in implementing early warning systems that focus on rainfall
thresholds and forecasting rainfall measurements. Rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation in Kalimpong can be enhanced
with more precipitation and landslide data as and when available.
Keywords Landslides · Rainfall ID threshold · Antecedent rainfall · Kalimpong · Early warning system
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landslides, geomorphological units, lithology, tracks and that associate rainfall measurements obtained for specific
man-made cuts. Various researchers have attempted to find rainfall events, (2) thresholds which combine the antecedent
a relation between rainfall and triggering of landslides [2, 3]. conditions [1] and (3) other thresholds, including hydrologi-
Landslides caused due to rainfall are due to the buildup of cal thresholds [7]. Physical rainfall threshold models aim to
pore pressure into the ground [4]. The relationship between simulate the physical phenomena and spatial information
landslide occurrences and rainfall in Darjeeling Himala- related to the water movement due to meteorological inputs
yas, especially Kalimpong, still remains unattended. The that control initiation of slides [1]. These types of thresholds
adoption of rainfall thresholds helps in developing an alarm are calculated only for rainfall events for which the rainfall
system which would help local people to evacuate in case measurement along with time and location are known and
of emergencies and notify the civil authorities about such has led to the failure of slopes. In general, thresholds using
incidents. empirical model is determined by performing statistical
The main objective of the study is to derive local rain- analysis on historical data of rainfall and landslides [11].
fall thresholds for landslide occurrences in the Kalimpong Rainfall thresholds are categorized as global, regional or
region using daily rainfall and landslide data for the year local thresholds, depending on the geographical area [11].
2010–2016, also to describe the monsoon rainfall as low Global rainfall threshold establishes a general minimum
intensity and long duration with interruptions with inter- level on a global scale below which landslides do not occur.
mittent heavy bursts, and to check whether the presence of Such thresholds are independent of local morphological,
such rainfall pattern emphasizes the importance of anteced- lithological and local rainfall pattern or history [1]. This
ent rainfall. Another objective is to plot the daily rainfalls threshold has been obtained using available data from vari-
on the day of failure for all the landslide events against the ous countries. Regional thresholds are similarly calculated
antecedent rainfalls to interpret the bias of landslide occur- as global thresholds, but only on the regional scale. Such
rences. The final objective is to check whether the resulting thresholds are effective for landslide warning systems using
output of the present study could be used as decision tools empirical methods [11]. Local thresholds for various places
for landslide hazard forecasting. have been given by Bacchini and Zannoni [12], Barbero
et al. [13] and Giannecchini [14]. They consider the local
rainfall and geomorphological conditions. Despite that the
Review on rainfall thresholds for landslide Indian Himalayas have extensive landslide vulnerabilities
occurrences administered by the monsoon rainfall, relatively few inves-
tigations exist for depicting rainfall thresholds for landslide
The minimum quantity of rainfall required for landslides to events. The geomorphic effects of a severe rainfall event in
occur will determine the threshold of the area [5]. Thresh- the eastern Indian Himalayan region near Darjeeling were
olds for landslides due to rainfall may also define other determined [15]. Froehlich et al. [16] showed that rainfall for
parameters including pore water pressure, the angle of slope, 24 h of 130–150 mm causes shallow landslides or cumula-
shear strength or displacements of slopes [6–8]. Guzzetti tive rainfall for 3 days equaling 180–200 mm on steep slope
et al. [8] and Kanungo and Sharma [1] proposed thresholds segments in Darjeeling. Rainfall exceeding 250 mm after
as a lower limit beyond which landslides do not occur and 24 h or cumulative rainfall for 3 day rainfall of 350 mm can
only for rainfall events which cause landslides known as cause large-scale landslides and debris flows [17]. Rainfall
triggering rainfall events. On the other hand, Crozier [9] thresholds for slide initiation in the Chamoli region of Garh-
defined threshold as the upper limit above which landslides wal Himalayas were determined [1]. Sengupta et al. [18]
always occur and threshold is the limit that separates trig- concluded that landslides at Lanta Khola in North Sikkim
gering from non-triggering rainfall events. (eastern Indian Himalaya) are initiated when collective rain-
Localized conditions pertaining to a particular slide fall for more than 15 days exceeds 250 mm. The determina-
describe its movement; therefore, rainfall threshold meth- tion of intensity duration thresholds becomes crucial for the
ods describing the mechanisms between rainfall patterns and Kalimpong region where a majority of landslides are rainfall
slide movements can be grouped into (i) empirical model induced [19].
and (ii) physical model [8, 10]. Empirical rainfall threshold
models are developed by studying the rainfall events that
have resulted in landslides. The threshold is obtained by Details of the study area
drawing lower-bound lines to the rainfall conditions result-
ing in landslides plotted in Cartesian, semi-logarithmic The study area was Kalimpong region, situated in Darjeel-
or logarithmic coordinates [1]. Depending on the type of ing Himalayas in the Indian state of West Bengal (Fig. 1).
rainfall measurement, empirical rainfall thresholds can be It is located at 87.47–89.47N latitude and 26.07–28.07E
assembled in three general classifications: (1) thresholds longitude on a curved ridge surrounded by Teesta and Relli
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rivers in the west and east, respectively. The average eleva- moderately to highly weathered chlorite schist, phyllite and
tion of the area is 1247 m comprising 1056 km2 [20]. The phyllitic quartzite belonging to the Gorubathan Formation
western slope of the Kalimpong region has been intensely of the Daling Group [21, 22]. The rocks are variably altered
destabilized due to many landslide locations and sinking and generally covered by a thin to thick heterogeneous debris
areas. This has been caused due to poor lithological quality, material (GSI Report, 2016). Figure 2 shows the damages
erosion of River Teesta at the toe and its tributaries within observed during the field trip in the study area.
a short period of time due to heavy rainfall during mon- The soils in the Kalimpong area are mostly reddish in
soon and deforestation. Geologically, the region comprises color. Occasional dark soils are found due to considerable
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Fig. 2 Observed damages during the field study. a Damage to culvert, b damaged road along NH 31A, c damage to house, d mudflows and
debris
presence of phyllites and schists. The soil comprises a asphalt, which restricts percolation of rainwater and leads to
high percentage of gravel, sand and silt and varies from severe landslides [19].
rock outcrops to coarse loamy to fine loamy. Sandy soils The region has been drained by a system of small streams
are mainly found in the east of River Teesta [23]. The of different orders. There are roughly five sub-basins drain-
soil characteristics vary from coarse to rocky with the ing the area which flow down as tributaries of the Teesta
increase in elevation. Typic and Lithic Udorthents, Typic River. The complete basin comprises first-order streams,
Dystrochrepts and rock outcrops are more susceptible to which join to build secondary and higher-order streams [25].
landslides, leading to severe erosion on steep slopes. The These first-order rivulets often seem to disappear from some
rock outcrops are more susceptible to rockfall, whereas location in the hill and then reappear downslope. Due to
the Udorthents and Dystrochrepts are more prone to debris vigorous expansion of the areas, the rainwater is intensified
flow [24]. by immense surface runoff. Untrained jhoras have resulted
The principal issue with regard to land use in Kalimpong in an increase in sinking areas and are a major cause for the
is increase in population. There is a constrained degree of increase of landslides in the area, leading to loss of agricul-
expansion of the farming area to keep up with the increase tural land, life and infrastructure.
in population, leading to deforestation and cutting of slopes. A comprehensive survey was accomplished for the
The development of the region to be sufficient for its grow- entire region during October 2016 to understand the
ing population leads to increase in the use of concrete and intensity of landslides, damage pattern and socioeconomic
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aspects. Figure 2a shows the damage to a culvert, which Rainfall and landslide data considered
showed evidence of movement across the structure and
the impact of debris flows on it. Dumping waste under The rain gauge used for recording rainfall was situated
bridges leads to drainage problems downstream. Figure 2b near Teesta, Kalimpong. The data included daily rainfall
shows a damaged road on the 14th milestone, which is the values between 2010 and 2016 collected from GSI. For
only road connecting National Highway (NH) 31A. Such site-specific landslide investigations, rainfall measurement
damages can affect the livelihood of people and indicate should be specific to each slope failure, but the area is
the immediate need for early warning systems. Figure 2c ungauged except for the rain gauge at Teesta. Data limita-
shows the damage to a house caused by poor drainage sys- tion leads to non-spatial variability of rainfall. Reports
tem in the region. This problem is aggravated by various also suggested that the variation in rainfall across Kalim-
other factors in the region. Figure 2d shows the extent of pong is negligible, especially during the monsoon. Varia-
mudflows and debris in Kalimpong Town. tions existed largely in pre-monsoon rain, which occurred
as isolated events and was unevenly distributed over the
study area. The cumulative rainfall in the region from 2010
to 2016 was 2283, 1777.3, 1364, 1021.5, 1028, 1031 and
Methodology adopted 1986.5 mm, respectively, as shown in Fig. 4. The cumu-
lative rainfall during the monsoon season for the study
The methodology used consists of two key components: area was 1714.5, 1640.4, 1242.6, 703.8, 916.9, 946.4 and
(i) collection of rainfall data which caused slides along 1698.4 mm, respectively. The monsoon rainfall contrib-
with the date and intensity; (ii) using empirical methods to uted 75.1, 92.3, 91.1, 68.9, 89.2, 91.8, 85.5% of annual
determine the relationship between rainfall and landslide rainfall (Fig. 5).
occurrence. Data were collected from various govern- To determine accurate thresholds, it is important to
ment agencies and other sources for the analysis of rainfall have a properly distributed network of rain gauges across
thresholds. Figure 3 explains the methodology adopted for the area along with an authenticated record of landslide
calculating rainfall thresholds. occurrence which contains information about the location
and time of initiation. The rainfall records for rain gauge
at Teesta in Kalimpong are limited. The challenges for
defining a precise threshold are the variability of geologi-
cal, geomorphological and anthropogenic factors across
an area.
Landslide data were prepared from records maintained by
GSI between 1968 and 2016. National Institute of Disaster
Management (NIDM) reports and published literature were
also considered for landslide information in Kalimpong.
Other sources were also used to establish the landslide data-
base which includes local newspaper reports. The reports
mentioned the initial time when the slide occurred and the
time to clear the mass. Landslide locations were reported in
terms of village names, ward numbers or the name of the
nearby village. Since the area is remotely located, the time
and location of some events may be inaccurate, especially
for single isolated events. The reports often did not precisely
locate the slides and local newspaper reports were used to
verify such data. The database only includes landslide events
for the period 2010–2016 due to the unavailability of rain-
fall data for this region. Landslide damages varied from the
death of a significant number of people, to some events lead-
ing to minor blockage of highways lasting for only a few
hours. The reports included only those events which led to
loss of life and property, including loss of cattle and agricul-
tural land. Landslides are represented on the basis of daily
Fig. 3 Flow diagram of the methodology for calculating rainfall average rainfall and cumulative rainfall in Fig. 5.
thresholds
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Fig. 4 Cumulative annual
rainfall in Kalimpong Town
(2010–2016)
Analysis for rainfall thresholds is the shape parameter that controls the slope of the power
law threshold curve.
The threshold for landslide triggering rainfall events in The use of power law equation to predict landslide occur-
Kalimpong was determined. Rainfall data and landslide rence is based on two assumptions. Firstly, as the intensity
information during 2010–2016 was extracted and used of rainfall increases, the probability of landslides increases
to calculate rainfall thresholds. The method of calculat- nonlinearly. This assumption states that the probability of
ing thresholds is by analyzing the relation between inten- landslide occurrence below the threshold value is low, and
sity–duration and antecedent rainfall. Thresholds are calcu- above the threshold the probability increases nonlinearly.
lated using the power law equation: The second assumption states that there is a decrease in slide
initiation if the duration of rainfall increases.
I = 𝛼D−𝛽 , (1) The empirical data are log transformed to fit data across
where I is the rainfall intensity (mm/h), D is the rainfall multiple orders of magnitude. The empirical rainfall data are
duration (h), α is a scaling parameter (the intercept) and β plotted in the log–log graph, and the distribution of rainfall
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conditions, log(I) vs. log(D), is plotted. The graph is plotted Different threshold values have been established for
only for those data that resulted in landslides and is fitted determining rainfall intensities across the globe with vari-
using the least square method with a linear equation of the ous climatic conditions. Guzzetti et al. [8] were the first
type: to list 52 earlier works of intensity–duration thresholds
on global, regional and local contexts which resulted in
log(I) = log(𝛼) − 𝛽log(D), (2) landslides. Figure 7 shows the comparisons with various
which is similar to the power law. Thereafter, for every threshold values provided by various researchers in the
rainfall event, the difference δ(D) between the log of event global, regional and local contexts.
intensity log[I(D)] and the corresponding intensity value
log[If(D)] is determined, i.e.,
(3)
[ ]
𝛿(D) = log[I(D)] − log If (D) .
Kernel density estimation is used to calculate the prob-
ability density function (pdf) of the distribution of δ(D). The
result is fitted using the least square method with a Gaussian
function.
f (x) = aexp − (x − b)2! ∕2c2 , (4)
where a > 0, c > 0, and a, b, c ∈ R. Finally, thresholds cor-
responding to different exceedance probabilities are defined,
based on the modeled (fitted) distribution of δ(D).
Intensity–duration threshold identifies the minimum rain-
fall condition which leads to landslide or failure of slopes
[26, 27, 31]. 99 landslide events occurred, of which 61 were
initiated due to rainfall and were considered to calculate the
ID threshold. The distribution of rainfall conditions result-
ing in landslide initiation is fitted to the power law equation
(Fig. 6a). Figure 6b shows the kernel density estimation of
the differences δ(D) fitted with a Gaussian function. Fig. 7 Comparison of rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds for
landslide occurrences from various studies and the present study
Fig. 6 a Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds for 99 rainfall events which ]led to landslide occurrences in Kalimpong between 2010 and
2016. b Kernel density estimation of the differences 𝛿(D) = log[I(D)] − log If (D)
[
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Fig. 9 a–f Relation between antecedent rainfall prior to failure (3, 7, 10, 20 and 30 days) and daily rainfall for landslide occurrences
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