Abduction, Reason,

and Science
Abduction, Reason,
and Science
Processes of Discovery and Explanation

Lorenzo Magnani
University of Pavia
Pavia, Italy, and
Georgia Institute of Technology
Atlanta, Georgia

Springer Science+Business Media, LLC

 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Magnani, Lorenzo
Abduction, reason, and ,cience: processes of discovcry and explanation/Lorenzo Magnani.
p. cm.
IncIudes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-4613-4637-1 ISBN 978-1-4419-8562-0 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-4419-8562-0
1. Science-Philosophy. 2. Abduction (Logic). 3. Discoveries in science. I. Tirle.

Q175.32.A24 M34 2001

501-dc21
00-052061

Front cover: Descartes's explanation of the rainbow (from his Meteora, 1656).

ISBN 978-1-4613-4637-1
© 2001 Springer Science+Business Media New York
Originally published by Kluwer Academic / Plenum Publishers, New York in 2001
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1990
http://www.wkap.nl/
1098765432
A c.I.P. record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.
AII rights reserved
No par! of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form
or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording, or otherwise,
without wrilten permis sion from the Publisher
To my daughter Giovanna
Science does not rest upon solid bedrock. The bold structure of its
theories rises, as it were, above a swamp. It is like a building erected
on piles. The piles are driven down from above into the swamp, but
not down to any natural or "given" base; and if we stop driving the
piles deeper, it is not because we have reached firm ground. We
simply stop when we are satisfied that the piles are firm enough to
carry the structure, at least for the time being.
Karl R. Popper, The Logic of Scientific Discovery
Foreword by Paul Thagard

More than a hundred year s ago, the great American philosopher Charles
Sanders Peirce coined the term "abduction" to refer to inference that involves
the generation and evaluation of explanatory hypotheses . The study of abduc-
tive inference was slow to develop, as logicians concentrated on deductive
logic and on inductive logic based on formal calculi such as probability the-
ory. In recent decades, however, there has been renewed interest in abductive
inference from two primary sources. Philosophers of science have recognized
the importance of abduction in the discovery and evaluation of scientific theo-
ries, and researchers in artificial intelligence have realized that abduction is a
key part of medical diagnosis and other task s that require finding explana-
tions. Psychologists have been slow to adopt the terms " abduction" and "ab-
ductive inference" but have been showing increasing interest in cau sal and
explanatory reasoning .
Thus abduction is now a key topic of research in cognitive science, the in-
terdisciplinary study of mind and intelligence. Lorenzo Magnani 's new book
contributes to this research in several valuable ways. First, it nicely ties to-
gether the concerns of philosophers of science and AI researchers, showing,
for example, the connections between scientific thinking and medical expert
systems. Second, it lays out a useful general framework for discussion of
various kinds of abduction. Third, it develops important ideas about aspects
of abductive reasoning that have been relatively neglected in cognitive science,
including the use of visual and temporal representations and the role of ab-
duction in the withdrawal of hypotheses . The author has provided a fine con-
tribution to the renaissance of research on explanatory reasoning.

Paul Thagard
Philosophy Department
University of Waterloo
Waterloo , Ontar io, Canada

IX
Preface

This volume explores abduction (inference to explan atory hypotheses),

an important but neglected topic in scientific reasoning. My aim is to inte-
grate philosophical, cognitive, and computational issues, while also discuss-
ing some cases of reasoning in science and medicine. The main thesis is that
abduction is a significant kind of scientific reasoning, helpful in delineating
the first principles of a new theory of science.
The status of abduction is very controversial. When dealing with abduc -
tive reasoning misinterpretations and equivocations are common. What are
the differences between abduction and induction ? What are the differences
between abduction and the well-known hypothetico-deductive method?
What did Peirce mean when he considered abduction a kind of inference?
Does abduction involve only the generat ion of hypotheses or their evaluation
too? Are the criteria for the best explanation in abductive reasoning epis-
temic , or pragmatic, or both? How many kinds of abduction are there?
The book aims to increase knowledge about creative and expert infer-
ences. The study of these high-level methods of abductive reasoning is situ-
ated at the crossroads of philosophy, epistemology, artificial intel1igence,
cognitive psychology, and logic ; that is, at the heart of cognitive science.
Philosophers of science in the twentieth century have traditionally distin-
guished between the inferential processes active in the logic of discovery and
the ones active in logic of justification. Most have concluded that no logic of
creative proce sses exists and, moreover, that a rational model of discovery is
impossible. In short, scientific creative inferences are irrational and there is
no "reasoning" to hypotheses (chapter I) . On the other hand, some research
in the area of artificial intelligence has shown that methods for discovery
could be found that are computationally adequate for rediscovering - or dis-
covering for the first time - empirical or theoretical laws and theorems
(chapter 2) . Moreover, the study of diagnostic (chapter 4), visual, spatial,
analogical, and temporal reasoning (chapter 5) has demonstrated that there
are many ways of performing intelligent and creative reasoning that cannot
be described with only the help of classical logic. However, non-standard
xi
XII Prefa ce

logic has shown how we ca n provide rigorous formal models of man y kinds
of abductive reasoning such as the ones involved in defeasible and uncertain
inferences (chapter 2).
Contr adicti ons and inconsistencies are funda menta l in abductive reason-
ing, and abductive reason ing is appro pr iate for "governing" inco nsis tencies .
Many ways of gove rn ing inconsistencies will be considered (c hapter 6),
from the meth ods activa ted in diagn ostic setti ngs and consistency -based
models to the typic al ones embedded in so me form s of creative reason ing,
from the interpr etations in term s of conflicts and co mpetitions to the actions
perform ed on empirical and co nceptua l an omalies, from the quest ion of gen- .
era ting inco nsis tencies by radica l innovati on to the connectionist treatm ent
of co herence.
Th e interdi sciplinary charac ter of abduction is ce ntra l and its fert ility in
variou s areas of resear ch evide nt. Th e book also addr esses the ce ntral epi s-
tem ological question of hyp othesis withdrawal in science by discu ssing his-
torical cases (chapter 7), where abductive infer ences exhibit their most ap -
pealing cognitive virtu es. Abdu cti on is also useful in describ ing the different
roles played by the var ious kind s of medical reaso ning, fro m the point of
view both of human age nts and of co mputational pr ogram s that perform
medi cal tasks suc h as diagnosis (chapter 4).
Finall y, an interesting and neglected point of contenti on ab out human
reasoning is whether or not co ncre te manipulations of externa l objects influ-
ence the genera tion of hypotheses, for exa mple in scie nce. I will delin eat e
the first features of what I ca ll manipulat ive abduction, showing how we can
find meth ods of co nstructivity in scientific and everyday reasoning based on
externa l models and "e pis ternic med iators" (chapter 3).
Dur ing the period in which this book was written, I was Visiti ng Profes-
sor of Philosophy of Sc ience at Georgia Institut e of Techn ology, Atlanta,
which pro vided an exce llent worki ng environment. I am gra tefu l to my col-
leagu es there at the Co llege of Co mputing and Sch ool of Public Polic y for
their helpful sugges tio ns and much more. For valu able co mments on a pre-
vious draft I am particularly gratefu l to Ronald Giere, David Goodin g, Ken-
neth Knoespel, Nan cy Nersessian, Paul Thagard, and two anonymous refe-
rees. Special thanks to Nancy Nersessian and Paul Thagard, who in the last
ten years played a significant role in shaping my ideas and in helping me to
focus and articulate my views.
Th e research related to this volume was supported by gra nts from the
Italian Mini stry of Univers ity, University of Pavia , CNR (Centro Nazionale
delle Ricerch e), CARIPLO (Cas sa di Risparmi o delle Provincie Lornbarde),
and Ivan Allen Co llege (Geo rgia Inst itute of Techn ology). Th e prepa ration
of the volume would not have been possible without the co ntribution of re-
sources and facilities of the Co mputational Ph ilosoph y Laboratory (Depart-
Preface X111

ment of Philosophy, University of Pavia), and of Georgia Institute of Tech-

nology .
This project was conceived as a whole, but as it developed various parts
have become articles, which have now been excerpted , revised, and inte-
grated into the current text. I am grateful to the respective publishers for
permission to include portions of previously published articles.

Magnani , L. , forthcoming, Creative abduction and hypothesis withdrawal in science, in:

Methodological Aspects of Discovery and Creativity, J. Meheus and T. Nickles, eds ., Klu-
wer , Dordrecht.
Magnani , L., 1999 , Creations and discoveries in science: the role of abductive reasoning, in:
Human and Machine Perception 1/: Emergence, Attention, ami Creativity, V. Cantoni, V.
Di Gesu, A Setti, and A. Tegolo, eds., Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, New York ,
pp .137-149.
Magnani, L., 1999, Model-based creative abduction, in: Model-Based Reasoning in Scientific
Discovery , L. Magnani, N. 1. Nersessian, and P. Thagard, eds., Kluwer Academic/Plenum
Publishers, New York , pp. 219-238.
Magnani , L., 1999, Withdrawing unfalsifiable hypotheses , Foundations of Science 4(2) :133-
153.
Magnani , L. 1997, Basic science reasoning and clinical reasoning intertwined : epistemologi-
cal analysis and consequences for medical education, Advances in Health Sciences Educa-
tion 2: 115-130.
Magnani, L., Chella, A , and da Fontoura Costa, L., 1999, Symbol ism and connectionism
paradigms, in: Human and Machine Perception 1/: Emergence, Attention, and Creativity,
V. Cantoni, V. Di Gesu , A Setti , and A Tegolo, eds. , Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publish-
ers, New York, pp . 185-194.
Magnani, L. Civita, S., and Previde Massara, G ., 1994 , Visual cognition and cognitive mod-
eling, in: Human and Machine Vision: Analogies and Divergences, V. Cantoni , cd ., Ple-
num Press, New York , pp. 229-243.

Lorenzo Magnani
University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA,
Contents

Chapter 1 Hypothesis Generation 1

1. Remini scence , tacit knowledge, schematism I

2. Generate and test 11

Chapter 2 Theoretical Abduction 15

I. What is abduction ? 15
1.1 Abduction and retroduction 15
1.2 ST-MODEL and the syllogistic fram ework 17
1.3 Abduction as hypothe sis generation, abduction as hypothesi s
generation and evaluation 25
2. The sentential fram ework 29
2.1 Abduction and induction in logic programming 36
3. Model -based creative abduction 38
3.1 Conceptual change and creative reasoning in science 38
3.2 Model-based abduction 41
4. Model-ba sed heuristic and deductive reasoning 47
5. Automat ic abductive scienti sts 49

Chapter 3 Manipulative Abduction 53

I. Manipulative abduction in scientific discovery 53

2. Epistemic mediators and manipulative reasoning 59
3. Segregated knowledge and the "world of paper" 63
4. Non-conceptual and spatial abilitie s 67

xv
XVI Cont ents

Chapter 4 Diagnostic Reasonin g 71

1. Is medical reasoning abductive? 72

2. Cognitive models 77
3. The need for an epistemological architecture of medical KBSs 82
4. NEOANEMIA 85
5. Basic science reasoning and clinical reasoning intertwined 88
6. Cognitive model s and medica l education 92
7. The centra lity of abduction 94

Chapter 5 Visual and Temporal Abduction 97

1. Visual abduction 97
1.1Visual ima gery 97
1.2 Knowledge representation scheme 98
1.3 Imagery and problem-solving 105
1.4 Visual abduction 106
2. Temporal abduction 115
2.1 Tempora l reference 115
2.2 Science and time : the forgotten dimension 116
2.3 Computational philosophy of time 119

Chapter 6 Governin g Incon sistenci es 125

1. Roads to changes in theoretical systems 125

2. Governing inconsistencies in abductive reasoning 129
2. 1 Finding inconsistencies I: empiric al anomalies 130
2.2 Finding inconsistencie s II: conceptual anomalie s 133
2.3 Generating inconsistencie s by radica l innovation 135
2.4 Maintaining inconsistencies 136
2.5 Contradicting, conflicting , failing 138
2.6 Inconsistencies and narrative abduction 139
3. Preinventive forms, disconfirming evidence, unexpected findings 140

Chapter 7 Hypothesis Withdrawal in Science 145

1. Withdrawing unfalsifiable hypotheses 145

1.1 Negatio n as failure in query evaluatio n 146
1.2 Withdrawing construct ions 149
1.3 Withdrawi ng conventions 156
2. Theoretical anoma ly reso lution 162
2.1 Scientific concept formation and spatial thinking 162
Contents XVII

2.2 Anomaly resolution and spatial reasoning 163

References 171

Author Index 191

Subject Index 197