Far East Journal of Mathematical Sciences (FJMS)

© 2018 Pushpa Publishing House, Allahabad, India

http://www.pphmj.com
http://dx.doi.org/10.17654/MS107020321
Volume 107, Number 2, 2018, Pages 321-338 ISSN: 0972-0871

SOLVING A PARAMETER ESTIMATION PROBLEM OF

GOODWIN MODEL WITH FUZZY INITIAL VALUES

Muhammad Ahsar Karim, Agus Yodi Gunawan,

Mochamad Apri and Kuntjoro Adji Sidarto
Industrial and Financial Mathematics Division
Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences
Institut Teknologi Bandung
Jl. Ganesha 10 Bandung, Indonesia

Abstract

One of the well-known models of biochemical networks is the

Goodwin model. The model describes an oscillatory behavior in
an enzymatic control process which is expressed in a set of
nonlinear ordinary differential equations and is often associated
with biochemical experiments containing uncertainties in data
measurements. These uncertainties are possibly either due to
limitations of available data, complexity of the networks, or
environmental or demographic changes. In view of these possible
uncertainties, in this paper, we study solutions of the Goodwin model
that is considered as a fuzzy initial value problem. Three types of
fuzzy differential solutions are discussed: Hukuhara differential and
its generalization, and fuzzy differential inclusions. Applications of
fuzzy arithmetic to those types lead into the alpha-cut deterministic
systems, which are then solved by Runge-Kutta method. Among those
three types, the fuzzy differential inclusions are able to capture
Received: January 30, 2018; Revised: March 22, 2018; Accepted: June 30, 2018
2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 34A07, 65D25.
Keywords and phrases: fuzzy initial value problems, fuzzy arithmetic, alpha-cut deterministic
systems, Hukuhara differential, generalized Hukuhara differential, fuzzy differential
inclusions.
322 M. A. Karim, A. Y. Gunawan, M. Apri and K. A. Sidarto
oscillatory behavior as the Goodwin model should have. Taking
the benefit from the fuzzy differential inclusions method, we
then demonstrate how to estimate parameters of the model when
uncertainty gets involved in the equation. As an illustration, we apply
the method to our generated fuzzy simulation data and calculate
parameters using nonlinear least square method.

1. Introduction

The Goodwin model was the first mathematical model demonstrating the
occurrence of self-sustained oscillations in a minimal genetic system based
solely on a negative feedback loop [3, 5]. The three-variable Goodwin model
was a prototypical model demonstrating the emergence of oscillations
behavior in a simple delayed negative feedback based system at the
molecular level. This model and its variants were extensively studied from a
theoretical point of view and commonly used to model circadian and other
genetic oscillators in various systems biology [3, 7]. Recent studies of
systems biology were often associated by uncertainties, which are possibly
either due to limitations of available data, complexity of the networks, and
environmental or demographic changes [14, 17, 32]. In a mathematical term,
the system will be governed by a set of differential equations that may
include uncertainty quantities. One approach that has been used to study this
was using fuzzy differential equations.

The concept of fuzzy differential was first introduced by Chang and

Zadeh in [26]. It has also been developed by other researchers to some extent
[6, 19, 25]. To accommodate uncertainties, some of the concepts of fuzzy
differential equations have been introduced by [11, 13, 16, 30]. The first
proposal was given by Hukuhara, known as Hukuhara differential. The
concept was based on the interval-valued functions. Later on, Seikkala
proposed the fuzzy differential concept, known as Seikkala differential,
based on the concept of alpha-cut, which was later proved by Kaleva [22]
that Hukuhara differential is equivalent to Seikkala differential and the
derivatives are the same. Hukuhara differential concepts were then expanded
into a so-called generalized Hukuhara differential [1, 2, 4, 13, 15, 16,
 Solving a Parameter Estimation Problem of Goodwin Model … 323
22, 30]. Later on, Baidosov [29] used other approaches than Hukuhara to
generate a new concept, known as fuzzy differential inclusions [2, 12, 25,
29, 31-34]. All concepts mentioned above transform, in principle, a fuzzy
model into a deterministic one using fuzzy arithmetic methods [18, 24].
A resulted deterministic model is then solved numerically by using Runge-
Kutta method [9, 23, 28].

Many authors have considered dynamics of the system having

uncertainties, but for a system with oscillatory feature, it was still limited. To
do so, in this paper, we choose the Goodwin model but now its initial value
is assumed to be a fuzzy initial value [20, 21, 27]. We then study some
methods to approximate solutions. An appropriate solution method that can
capture its original behavior will then be taken as a model to solve
parameter estimation problem. The optimal parameter estimation problem
will be performed by applying nonlinear least square method [8, 10]. To
recapitulate, in this paper, three important things will be discussed, namely,
applications of fuzzy differential concepts, the solution methodology, and
the parameter estimation of the Goodwin model in terms of a fuzzy initial
value problem.

The paper is organized as follows: Fuzzy concepts related to our

discussion are written in Section 2. In Section 3, the derivation of fuzzy
Goodwin model using the concepts of alpha-cut and fuzzy arithmetic
is discussed. Three solution methods are here also addressed and their
simulation results are presented. Choosing an appropriate method derived
from Section 3, parameter estimation of our simulation data is performed in
Section 4. Conclusions are written in the last section.

2. Materials

Basic concepts of fuzzy theory, such as fuzzy subset, alpha-cut, fuzzy

number and fuzzy arithmetic can be found in [1, 18, 22, 24, 26, 31]. Some
concepts related to our discussion are here mentioned.
324 M. A. Karim, A. Y. Gunawan, M. Apri and K. A. Sidarto
Definition 1. A fuzzy subset A of universe X is characterized by a
function  A : X  0, 1, called a membership function of A that represents
the degree of membership of element in the fuzzy subset A.

(1) The fuzzy subset A can be expressed by a set of ordered pairs

consisting of the elements x  X and a certain degree of the membership
function  A  x  of the form:

A   x,  A  x  : x  X .

(2) The alpha-cut of A, denoted by  A , is the crisp set of all elements
in X that belong to a fuzzy set A at least to the degree   0, 1:

 A  x  X :  A  x   ,   0, 1.

Definition 2. Let R be a set of all real numbers and A be a fuzzy subset
of R. The fuzzy subset A is called by fuzzy number when:

(a) A is normal, that is, x  R   A  x   1.

(b) All alpha-cuts of A are closed intervals of R.

(c) The support of A, that is, Supp A  x  R :  A  x   0 is bounded.

The collection of all fuzzy subsets of R is denoted by FR , and the

alpha-cut of A  FR is shortened by  A  a , a , with a , a 
inf, supx  R :  A  x   .

Fuzzy arithmetic for fuzzy numbers based on extension principle is

given as follows:

Definition 3. Let A and B be fuzzy numbers with alpha-cuts  A 

a , a  and B   b , b , respectively, and  be a real number.

(1) The sum and the difference of  A and B  :

 A  B    A  B   a , b , a , b 

 Solving a Parameter Estimation Problem of Goodwin Model … 325
and
 A  B    A  B   a  b , a  b .

(2) The multiplication of  A by :

 a  , a  ;   0,
A   A  a , a     
 a , a ;   0.

(3) The multiplication of  A and B  :

 A  B    A  B   min P, max P ,

with P  as  br ; s, r  , .

(4) The division of  A by B  , if 0  Supp B :

 A B    A B    A  1 B  ,
with 1 B   1 b , 1 b .

2.1. Fuzzy differential equations (FDEs)

The concepts of FDEs are the extension of the crisp differential
equations. The most of FDEs basis concepts, such as fuzzy function and
fuzzy differences can be found in [22]. Some basic concepts of FDEs, i.e.,
Seikkala, Hukuhara and generalized Hukuhara differentials are presented
below [1, 2, 11, 15, 16, 22, 30, 31].

Definition 4. Let F : a, b   FR ; a, b   R be a fuzzy function with

F  x    f  x  ,  f  x  . Then F  x    f  x  ,  f  x  ;  
0, 1 and F  x   FR , is called by Seikkala derivative of F. The fuzzy
function F is called by Seikkala differentiable.

Lemma 1 [11, 16, 30]. Let F , G : a, b   FR ; a, b   R be fuzzy

functions. If F and G are Seikkala differentiable, then  F  G   F   G 
and kF   kF , k  R.
326 M. A. Karim, A. Y. Gunawan, M. Apri and K. A. Sidarto
Definition 5. Let  R  FR be the family of all the fuzzy numbers and
F : a, b   R . If the limits of some pair:

F  x0  h   H F  x0  F  x0   H F  x0  h 
(a) lim and lim or
 h  h
h 0 h 0

F  x0   H F  x0  h  F  x0  h   H F  x0 
(b) lim and lim
h 0  h h 0  h

exist and are equal to some element F  x0    R , then F is strongly

generalized differentiable at x0 and F  x0  is the strongly generalized
derivative of F at x0 .

The Hukuhara difference  H has rules [2, 13, 22, 33]: if A, B   R ,

then A  H B  C  A  B  C , provided C exists. Here, the sign + is the
standard addition operation on fuzzy numbers. In terms of alpha-cut,

 A  H B   a  b , a  b ,

with  A  a , a  and B   b , b .

If a function F satisfies Definition 5(a), then F is called a Hukuhara

differentiable (Hd), and if an F satisfies Definition 5(b), then F is called a
generalized Hukuhara differentiable (gHd).

Lemma 2 [12]. Let F : a, b    R . For F  x    R with F  x  

 f   x  , f   x ; x  a, b  , then:
(1) if F is Hd, then F  x    f   x  , f   x ,

(2) if F is gHd, then F  x    f   x  , f   x .

2.2. Fuzzy differential inclusion (FDI)

The differential inclusion can be expressed in the general form [22, 29]:
 yt   F t , y t  ,
 (1)
 y 0   ,
 Solving a Parameter Estimation Problem of Goodwin Model … 327

where F : R  R n  P R n ; P R n  is the family of all subsets of R n , and

  R n . A solution of (1) is obtained by solving the differential equation

yt   f t , y t  , y 0   y0  , where f is a selection of F depending on
y 0   y0  .

An FDI is a generalization of a differential inclusion that is defined by

[2, 29]:

 yt   F t , y t  ,
 (2)
 y 0   Y0

and is interpreted as the family of differential inclusions

 yt   F t , y t  ,
 (3)
 y 0   Y0 

for all   0, 1. Here, F  : 0, T   R n   n and Y0    n , where

 n is the family of all nonempty compact and convex subsets of R n .

A solution of (3) is an absolutely continuous function y : 0, T   R n

that satisfies the inclusion in 0, T  and y 0   y0  Y0  . The set of all
solutions of (3) is denoted by   y0 , T  and the attainable set at t  0, T 
by    y0 , t . Diamond [23] proved that the sets   y0 , T  are the alpha-
cut of the fuzzy solution of the problem (2). Gomez et al. [16] guaranteed
that if F is continuous and bounded, then   y0 , T  are defined.
3. The Model

We consider the Goodwin model in which the initial values have

uncertainties in terms of fuzzy numbers. The model is expressed as follows:

1
X   k1  k2 X , X 0   X 0 ,
K In  Zn
328 M. A. Karim, A. Y. Gunawan, M. Apri and K. A. Sidarto
Y   k3 X  k4Y , Y 0   Y0 ,

Z   k5Y  k6 Z , Z 0   Z 0 , (4)

where X 0 , Y0 , Z 0   R  are the initial conditions with Supp X 0  ,

SuppY0  , Supp Z 0   R  , and k1 , k 2 , k3 , k 4 , k5 , k6 are the real constant
parameters. Since the initial conditions are fuzzy numbers, the solutions of
the problem (4) must be the fuzzy valued continuous functions. We should
note that the value of n must be n  8 to obtain the limit-cycle oscillations
in the model [3, 7]. Since we are interested in considering an oscillatory
behavior, in this study, we set n  10 and K I  1 in the problem (4).

In order to provide an illustration, let the initial conditions of the

problem (4) be triangular membership functions in the forms of

X 0  trimf r ,  x0 , x0 , x0  ,

Y0  trimf r ,  y0 , y0 , y0  ,

Z 0  trimf r ,  z0 , z0 , z0  ,

respectively, for all r  R,   0, 1, and

x0 , x0 , x0 , y0 , y0 , y0 , z0 , z0 , z0  R.

For fixed   0, 1, the problem (4) can be expressed in terms of alpha-cut
as follows:

 x , x   k1 1
 k2  x , x ,
1  z , z 10

 y , y   k3 x , x   k4  y , y ,

 z , z   k5  y , y   k6  z , z , (5)

with the alpha-cut of initial conditions:  X 0    x0 , x0 , Y0  

 y0 , y0  and Z 0    z0 , z0 .
 Solving a Parameter Estimation Problem of Goodwin Model … 329
Using the arithmetic of fuzzy numbers [18, 24, 29, 33], the problem (5)
can be rewritten as:

 
 x , x   k1 1
 k x

, k
1
 k x ,
1  z10 1  z10
2 1 2
 

 y , y   k3 x  k4 y , k3 x  k4 y ,

 z , z   k5 y  k6 z , k5 y  k4 z . (6)

Then we transform the problem (6) into the alpha-cut deterministic system
using Hd, gHd and FDI concepts.

3.1. The alpha-cut deterministic system using Hd concept

According to Lemma 2(1), the transformation of (6) by using the Hd
concept leads to:

x  k1  k2 x , x  k1  k2 x ,

1 1
1 z10 1 z10

y  k3 x  k 4 y , y  k3 x  k 4 y ,

z  k5 y  k6 z , z  k5 y  k6 z (7)

with initial conditions x0 , x0 , y0 , y0 , z0 , z0 .

To carry out simulations, as an illustration, we set initial parameters:

k10   k3 0   k5 0   1, k 2  0   k 4  0   k 6  0   0 .1 . (8)

Using the Runge-Kutta method, we obtain the alpha-cut of the solutions

as shown in Figure 1 and also we compare it with the solutions of the crisp
model.
The alpha-cut of the solutions of the problem (7) resulted by Hd concept
did not show an oscillatory behavior. The -cuts  X    x , x , Y  
 y , y  and Z    z , z  have shown the increase of the length of
330 M. A. Karim, A. Y. Gunawan, M. Apri and K. A. Sidarto
intervals very rapid. It means that the uncertainty of the solutions to the
problem (4) increases even since the beginning of the evolution.

Figure 1. Solutions of the problem (7) by using the Hd concept. The left-end
of the alpha-cut is denoted by the red-circle and the right one by the
blue-asterisk mark. The initial conditions are  X 0   0.09, 0.11, Y0  
0.18, 0.22 and Z 0   1.99, 2.79 whereas the crisp solution is denoted
by the solid line, with the initial conditions X 0  0.1, Y0  0.2 and Z 0  2.5.

3.2. The alpha-cut deterministic system using gHd concept

Applying the gHd concept to (6), we arrive at the following equations:

x  k1  k2 x , x  k1  k2 x ,

1 1
1 z10 1 z10

y  k3 x  k4 y , y  k3 x  k4 y ,

z  k5 y  k6 z , z  k5 y  k6 z . (9)

The -cuts of the solutions to the problem (9) are given in Figure 2. It
seems that solutions describe oscillatory behavior. However, when we zoom
in at some point, we find a crossing point between the left and the right-ends
of the alpha-cuts, in which this situation is not required. It means that this
type of solution can only be applied before the first crossing point is reached.
 Solving a Parameter Estimation Problem of Goodwin Model … 331

Figure 2. Solutions of the problem (9) by using gHd concept. For Figures
(2.a)-(2.c), similar information as in Figures 1(a)-1(c) are applied. The
zoom in of Figure (2.a)-(2.c) at a particular point indicates the existence of
crossing points.

3.3. The alpha-cut deterministic system using FDI concept

The solution of the problem (4) by using the FDI concept can be
determined by solving the following crisp system:

1
x  k1  k 2 x, x0   x0 ,
K In  zn
332 M. A. Karim, A. Y. Gunawan, M. Apri and K. A. Sidarto
y   k3 x  k 4 y , y 0   y0 ,

z   k5 y  k 6 z , z 0   z 0 (10)

with the initial conditions x0  X 0 , y0  Y0 and z0  Z 0 , where

X 0 , Y0 , Z 0   R . By assigning the alpha-cut of the initial conditions as in
(4), the alpha-cuts of the solutions to the problem (10) are obtained as:

 X t    x , x   minxt , maxxt ,

Y t    y , y   minyt , maxyt ,

 z t    z , z   minz t , maxz t  (11)

with the initial values x0   x0 , x0 , y0   y0 , y0  and z0   z0 , z0 .
Applying Runge-Kutta method to (10) and finding the min and max values
for each t, then results of the problem (11) are shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3. Solutions of the problem (10) by using FDI concept. For Figures
(3.a)-(3.c), similar information as in Figure 1(a)-1(c) are applied.

Using the FDI concept, we may capture the oscillatory behavior of

the solutions of the problem (4). The existence of the functions “min”
and “max” guaranteed the continuity and the boundedness of functions
 Solving a Parameter Estimation Problem of Goodwin Model … 333

xt    x , x , y t    y , y , and z t   t z , z  depending on x0 

 x0 , x0 , y0   y0 , y0 , and z0   z0 , z0 .

4. Parameter Estimation

From Section 3, we found that the FDI concept was able to capture the
oscillations and maintain the uncertainty of the solutions. This leads us to
choose equation (11) as a basis to work out parameter estimation of the
fuzzy initial value problem of the Goodwin model. Furthermore, optimal
parameter estimation will be performed by applying nonlinear least square
method.
To illustrate the process, we set the alpha-cut of data simulation, namely,

 X data t    xdata

 
 t , xdata  t ,

Ydata t    ydata

 
 t , ydata  t ,

Z data t    zdata

 
 t , zdata  t 

for fixed   0, 1 and the initial values are x0  0.0943, 0.1163, y0 
0.1815, 0.2341 and z0  2.0094, 2.7421 as shown in Figure 4. The
objective function to be optimized is

min F k1, k2 , k3 , k4 , k5 , k6  22
k1, k2 , k3 , k4 , k5 , k6

 N 1 
 min
1
M

  
 xt  xdata t
2
k1, k2 , k3 , k4 , k5 , k6
 t 0
N 1 N 1 N 1
   x t  
xdata t
2
   y t  
ydata t
2
   y t  ydata

t
2

t 0 t 0 t 0

N 1 N 1 
+   zt  
zdata t
2
   zt  zdata
 2
t , 
(12)
t 0 t 0 
334 M. A. Karim, A. Y. Gunawan, M. Apri and K. A. Sidarto
where M  6 N ; N  25 is the number of the data series of t , ki  0, 2;
i  1, 2,  , 6 and the initial parameters as in (8).

The optimization results produce parameters:

k1  0.9541, k2  0.1025, k3  0.9538,

k4  0.1022, k5  1.0837 and k6  0.1012, (13)

with the resnorm  9.4  103. These parameters give the alpha-cut of the
solutions of the problem (4) as shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4. The alpha-cuts of the data simulations and the solutions of the
problem (4) by using FDI concept with the parameters as in (13). The left-
end of alpha-cut of the data simulations is denoted by the circle and the right
one by the asterisk marks whereas the left-end of alpha-cut of the solutions
of the problem (4) is denoted by the dotted and the right one by the solid
lines.
 Solving a Parameter Estimation Problem of Goodwin Model … 335
5. Conclusions

In this paper, we showed how to choose the appropriate method

to capture uncertainty for a system having oscillatory behavior. As an
illustration, we took the Goodwin model as our basis. Two methods,
namely, methods using Hd and gHd concepts, were not able to capture the
oscillations. In contrast, the method using FDI concept was able to capture
the oscillations and maintained the uncertainty of the solutions. This led us
to apply the FDI concept to estimate the parameters of the fuzzy initial value
problem of Goodwin model.

Acknowledgments

The first author would like to thank to Kementerian Riset, Teknologi,

dan Pendidikan Tinggi Republik Indonesia (Kemenristek DIKTI) and DIPA-
IL Penelitian Unggulan Perguruan Tinggi (PUPT) Kemenristek DIKTI for
funding financial supports during the Ph.D. program.

The authors also thank the anonymous referees for their valuable
suggestions for the improvement of the manuscript.

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Muhammad Ahsar Karim: ahsar_math@students.itb.ac.id

Agus Yodi Gunawan: aygunawan@math.itb.ac.id

Mochamad Apri: m.apri@math.itb.ac.id

Kuntjoro Adji Sidarto: sidarto@math.itb.ac.id