Professional Documents
Culture Documents
SUBJECT: RFIS
Submitted by
Sandeepan Sahoo (UR20049)
Ashish Kumar Mohanty (UR20018)
Sanjay Kumar Behera (UR20051)
Anwesh Pradhan (UR20014)
Prelude
For the most 1990, Argentina was seen as a model for policymaking. Pegging exchange rate
to the dollar under a currency board type arrangement in 1991, Argentina made an end to the
hyperinflation, reducing inflation rate to single-digit levels. The banking sector of Argentina,
traditionally weak, was strengthened considerably. This is because of many points. One is an
increase in foreign bank entry. The 1998 World Bank financial sector review rated Argentina
second to Singapore in emerging markets in the quality of bank supervision. Greater
economic stability has attracted foreign investment inflows, which contributed to acceleration
in economic growth; even when lenders pull back from financing in East Asia in 1997,
capital inflows continued to Argentina.
In 1999 things began turning bad. The Brazilian currency collapse was caused by sharp
decline in export lead revenue, and economic growth was in minus for 3 years in a row. With
some brief exception, financial market of Argentina remained undisturbed till 2001, when
uncertainty about increasing public debt and the continuing economic contraction had led to
sharp increase in the yields that investors demanded to hold Argentine government bond.
Unpredictability extended to the durability of the currency-peg and the financial system’s
ability to do good on dollar liability that were backed to a significant extent by peso assets,
including government debt. This resulted in massive deposit withdrawal from banks.
In response to these developments, in Dec 2001, Argentina got suspended payment on its
external debt and it also restricted deposit withdrawal. In 2002 January, Argentina abandoned
its peg to the U.S.A dollar. Reflecting continuous uncertainty of financial condition, interest
rates have continued to rise and the currency depreciated 300% as against the U.S. dollar in
September 2002.
In the year of 2005 GDP of Argentina went beyond pre-crisis levels, and debt restructuring of
Argentina that year were resumed by payment of its defaulted bonds; a 2nd restructuring of
debt in 2010 brought down the percentage bonds out of defaults to 90%, although lawsuit led
by vulture funds refrained from an end. Bond holders who helped in the restructuring have
been paid in time bound manner and this has caused a rise in the value of their bonds. in 2006
Argentina paid its IMF loans in full. In April 2016 new government came to a decision to
repay the debt of the country, payment in full amount to the hedge funds.
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Revenue 33,557 48,946 58,074 62,109 60,007 60,363 67,841 70,957 68,908 70,270 63,219
Tax 22,760 33,811 38,091 41,703 40,206 42,978 49,250 52,013 49,675 51,519 46,928
Social security 7,757 10,733 14,060 14,759 13,705 11,956 12,202 11,990 10,892 10,684 9,639
Other 3,040 4,402 5,923 5,647 6,096 5,430 6,389 6,954 8,341 8,067 6,652
Non interest
expenditure 34,377 45,917 54,630 61,969 61,150 63,418 67,053 69,414 71,041 69,017 67,282
Wages 13,390 17,606 20,792 22,838 22,920 22,725 24,157 24,912 26,587 26,958 26,710
Pensions 9,070 12,653 13,136 15,191 15,628 16,844 17,199 17,481 17,436 17,431 16,630
Other 11,917 15,658 20,702 23,940 22,602 23,849 25,697 27,022 27,018 24,628 23,942
Primary
balance -820 3,029 3,444 140 -1,143 -3,055 788 1,543 -2,133 1,253 -4,063
Interest
(accrual) 5,011 3,944 3,407 4,040 4,807 5,613 6,843 7,858 9,655 11,528 13,024
Overall
balance -5,831 -915 37 -3,900 -5,950 -8,668 -6,055 -6,315-11,788-10,275 -17,087
Other debt
creating
operations 0 200 700 1,000 1,989 1,231 942 1,123 1,546 0 0
Overall
balance,
incl off
budget -5,831 -1,115 -663 -4,900 -7,939 -9,899 -6,997 -7,438-13,334-10,275 -17,087
Tax 13.6 16.2 16.1 16.2 15.6 15.8 16.8 17.4 17.5 18.1 17.5
Social security 4.6 5.1 5.9 5.7 5.3 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6
Other 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.9 2.8 2.5
Non interest
expenditure 20.6 21.9 23.1 24.1 23.7 23.3 22.9 23.2 25.1 24.2 25.0
Wages 8.0 8.4 8.8 8.9 8.9 8.3 8.2 8.3 9.4 9.5 9.9
Pensions 5.4 6.0 5.6 5.9 6.0 6.2 5.9 5.8 6.2 6.1 6.2
Other 7.1 7.5 8.8 9.3 8.7 8.8 8.8 9.0 9.5 8.6 8.9
Primary
balance -0.5 1.4 1.5 0.1 -0.4 -1.1 0.3 0.5 -0.8 0.4 -1.5
Interest
(accrual) 3.0 1.9 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.6 3.4 4.0 4.8
Overall
balance -3.5 -0.4 0.0 -1.5 -2.3 -3.2 -2.1 -2.1 -4.2 -3.6 -6.4
Other debt
creating
operations 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0
Overall
balance,
incl off
budget -3.5 -0.5 -0.3 -1.9 -3.1 -3.6 -2.4 -2.5 -4.7 -3.6 -6.4
Memorandum
item:
Consolidated
debt
percent of
GDP 38.8 32.9 32.8 35.1 39.2 39.8 38.1 41.3 47.4 50.8 64.1
Real
noninterest
exp
(1995=100
) 31.5 73.9 82.5 98.5 100.0 103.8 106.2 105.3 104.3 96.2 98.5
(% change,
annual) 134.5 11.6 19.5 1.5 3.8 2.4 -0.9 -0.9 -7.8 2.5
Real GDP
growth 10.5 10.3 5.7 5.8 -2.8 5.5 8.1 3.8 -3.4 -0.5 -4.5
Deflator (%
chg) 137.5 13.7 6.9 2.8 3.2 -0.1 -0.5 -1.7 -1.9 1.0 -1.1
After having grownup by over five 50% from 1990 to 1998, Argentina's gross domestic
product declined by 3% by 1999 and also the country entered what became a three-year
recession. President of Argentina Fernando DE la Rúa was elected in 1999 on a reform
agenda that however wanted to keep up the peso's parity with the US Dollar. He inherited a
state with waiting recession, and continuing high level of borrowing. In 1999, economic
stability became economic sluggishness (even deflation at times), and also the economic
measures taken did nothing to avert it. the govt continuing its prototype economic policies.
Undervaluing the peso by abandoning the exchange peg between was thought of political
suicide and a formula for economic disaster. By the tip of the century, complementary
currencies had emerged.
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Total 7.63 7.98 8.82 8.89 8.87 8.35 8.25 8.33 9.39 9.47 9.87
Federal 2.97 2.70 2.83 3.03 3.01 2.93 2.91 2.70 3.02 2.96 2.91
Provinces 4.66 5.28 5.99 5.86 5.86 5.42 5.34 5.63 6.37 6.51 6.96
General government 1,801 1,753 1,675 1,608 1,629 1,653 1,720 1,731 1,739 1,780 1,815 1,815
Federal1 694 646 556 500 515 518 496 482 465 462 462 462
Provinces 1,108 1,106 1,119 1,108 1,114 1,135 1,223 1,249 1,273 1,318 1,353 1,353
General government 13.6 12.8 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.4
Federal1 5.0 4.3 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2
Provinces 8.6 8.6 8.4 8.3 8.4 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.3
Total 7,266 9,971 12,972 14,049 13,845 13,211 13,953 14,329 14,936 14,875 14,609
Federal 7,671 10,165 13,389 15,143 14,980 16,065 17,654 17,354 18,503 18,269 16,934
Provinces 7,030 9,874 12,783 13,544 13,327 12,054 12,526 13,224 13,686 13,716 13,815
Private Sector 12,103 12,220 12,012 11,856 11,999 12,181 12,246 12,090
Total 10,775 11,837 13,918 14,475 13,798 13,146 13,812 14,054 14,822 14,900 14,789
Federal 11,375 12,068 14,366 15,602 14,929 15,986 17,475 17,020 18,361 18,300 17,142
Provinces 10,424 11,723 13,716 13,954 13,282 11,994 12,399 12,969 13,582 13,739 13,986
Total 1.57 1.71 1.86 1.87 1.87 1.71 1.70 1.73 1.93 1.93 2.04
Federal 1.65 1.75 1.92 2.02 2.02 2.08 2.15 2.10 2.39 2.37 2.36
Provinces 1.52 1.70 1.83 1.81 1.80 1.56 1.53 1.60 1.77 1.78 1.92
Memorandum items:
Nominal GDP 166.89 209.30 236.50 257.44 258.03 272.15 292.86 298.95 283.26 284.96 268.64
Population (millions) 32.97 33.42 33.87 34.32 34.77 35.22 35.67 36.12 36.58 37.03 37.43
Labor force
(39% of pop) 12.86 13.03 13.21 13.38 13.56 13.74 13.91 14.09 14.27 14.44 14.60
GDP per capita 4,636 5,814 6,983 7,501 7,421 7,727 8,210 8,277 7,744 7,695 7,177
While the provinces of Argentina had issued complementary currency in the form of bonds to
manage scarcities of cash, the scale of such borrowing reached extraordinary highs during
this time. They were called "quasi currencies", the strongest was Buenos Aires's Patacón. The
national government had its own quasi-currency, the LECOP.
Public sector
Average Wage employment
Data Sources:
World Bank: Cross National Data on Employment and Wages (for middle income
countries)
OECD: Public Governance and Management Statistics, 1997-98 (for European countries)
Fund staff estimates.
Consequences of Crisis
Debt default:
During the last week of 2001, the management defaulted on the larger a part of the general
public debt, US$132 billion, a seventh of all the cash borrowed by the assemblage.Politically,
the foremost heated debate involved the date of the subsequent elections. Rodríguez Saá's
came with a scheme to preserve the convertibility regime, known as the "Third Currency"
Plan. It consisted of making a brand new, non-convertible currency which will be called
Argentino, and this Argentino may coexist with convertible pesos and US dollars. it'd be
circulated as cash, or but not in checks, promissory notes, or other instruments, which can be
denominated in pesos or dollars. It'd be partially guaranteed with government managed land
to counter balance inflationary tendencies.
Argentines having status would be to redeem all complementary currency already in
circulation. Critics called this arrangement as "controlled devaluation" but its advocates
countered that controlling a devaluation is maybe its thorniest issue, that criticism was a
praise in disguise. The plan had enthusiastic supporters among mainstream economists citing
technical arguments. However, it absolutely was not implemented because the Rodríguez Saá
government lacked the specified political support.
Rodriguez Saá lost the support of his own Justicialist Party and resigned before the tip of the
year. The law-makers had a meeting again, appointing Peronist Senator Eduardo Duhalde of
national capital Province, who had been the runner-up within the 1999 race for the
presidency.
By 2005, the Argentine government was fruitful in reestablishing both unfamiliar just as
homegrown venture believability. Because of extensive weight from the IMF to give better
monetary terms post the obligation default emergency, the public authority was at last ready
to mastermind an obligation trade that took $67.3 billion obligation off the records. Also, the
Argentine government's readiness to acknowledge a yearly swelling pace of over 28% post
the depreciation of Pesos settled the ostensible conversion scale and prompted a broad
development rate. By 2005 the The argentine economy had completely recuperated and was
developing widely. Absolute spending expanded drastically (by 4.6% purposes of GDP) with
the current record being in excess. In this manner, Argentina's recuperation from one of its
most noticeably awful downturns were really fast.
Recovery Path:
The economic outlook was different from that of the 1990s. The devalued peso made
exports of Argentina cheap and competitive in overseas market and discouraged imports.
additionally, the high price of soybeans within the international market produced massive
amounts of foreign currency; China became a significant buyer of Argentina's soy products.
The government fortified import substitution and available credit for businesses, staged an
aggressive commit to improve assembling, and allocated large sums for welfare but
controlled expenditure in other fields.
The peso gradually rose, reaching a 3-to-1 rate to the dollar. Agricultural exports grew and
tourism returned. the trade surplus ultimately caused such an inflow of dollars that the govt
was forced to start intervening to stay the peso from rising further, which might have
adversely impacted budget balances by limiting export tax revenues and discouraged further
re-industrialisation. The financial organization started upgrading its dollar reserves.
By December 2005, foreign currency reserves had reached $28 billion (they were later
reduced by the payment of the total debt to the IMF in January 2006). The side effect of this
accumulation of reserves strategy is US dollars had to be bought with freshly issued pesos,
which had risk of inflation. The financial institution sterilized its purchases by buying
Treasury letters. during this way the rate of exchange stabilised to about 3:1.
The currency exchange problem was complicated by two opposing factors: a pointy increase
in imports since 2004, which elevated the demand for dollars, and also the return of foreign
investment, this is which brought down fresh currency from oversees, after the successful in
restructuring of about three-quarter of the external debt. the govt. founded controls and
restrictions aimed toward keeping short-term speculative investment from destabilising
financial markets. The country faced a possible debt crisis in late July 2014, when a
replacement York judge ordered Argentina to pay hedge funds the total interest on bonds it
had swapped at a reduction rate during 2002. Argentina argued if the judgement goes in favor
of hedge fund , the country would become insolvent and have a second debt default.
Unemployment has been relatively reduced. Argentina has failed to reach an equitable
distribution of income. That inequality level compares favorably to levels of Latin America.
Argentina continued to grow. GDP jumped 8.8% in 2003, 9.0% in 2004, 9.2% in 2005, 8.5%
in 2006 and 8.7% in 2007.
after growth resumed in 2003 Living standards recovered significantly. real wages rose by
72% from their lowest point. Argentina's domestic auto industry recovered quickly from a
low of 83,000 in 2002 to a record 964,000 in 2013.
Debt restructuring
First restructuring:
Argentina defaulted on all its debt from foreign souces in 2001. In 2005 January , the
Argentine central government came up with the first debt restructuring for affected
bondholders; nearly 76% of defaulted bonds (US$62.5 billion) were exchanged and brought
out of default. Most of bond market of Argentine bonds became GDP-linked , and investors,
both domestic and foreign, netted record yields amid renewed growth. One of the single
largest investors in Argentine bonds was Venezuela, which bought more than $5 billion in
restructured Argentine bonds from 2005 to 2007. Venezuela was the main single buyer of
Argentina's debt between 2001-2006
In 2005 and 2006, Banco Occidental de Descuento and Fondo Común, own by Venezuelan
financier Victor Vargas Irausquin and Victor Gill Ramirez individually, purchased a large
portion of the remarkable securities and exchanged them on to the market. The banks
purchased $100 million Argentine bonds and exchanged bonds for a benefit of $17 million.
Individuals who reprimand Vargas have said that he made a $1 billion "private alcove
bargain" by trades of Argentine bonds as an indication of companionship with Chavez. The
Financial Times talked with experts in the United States who said that the banks benefitted
from the resale of the bonds; the Venezuelan government didn't benefit.
Bondholders who had acknowledged the 2005 trade (three out of four did as such) saw the
estimation of their bonds rise 90% by 2012, and these kept on rising unequivocally during
2013.
IMF repayment
The Argentine Central Bank approached the Bank for International Settlements in Basel,
Switzerland, where a piece of its cash saves was kept, to go about as its representative. In the
rebuilding cycle, the International Monetary Fund was considered a "advantaged leaser", that
is, all obligation is perceived and settled completely. In 2005 Argentina moved from an
approach of arrangement and renegotiating with the International Monetary Fund to
installment in full, exploiting a huge and becoming monetary excess because of rising
product costs and financial yield, with expectation of picking up monetary freedom from the
IMF. Kirchner organization had just paid off its obligation to the IMF from $15.5 billion out
of 2003. The last and biggest leftover portion of the IMF obligation, about $9.5 billion, was
paid on January 3, 2006. The obligation was truth be told named by unique drawing rights.
Conclusion
Argentina’s debt position would have been bearable if only uncertainty in market had not
triggered a crisis. Argentina reduced its vulnerability to potentially reducing its public and
external debts. This is illustrated by the contrasting experiences in Argentina and Asian
economies such as South Korea. With lower debt, the latter is less likely to experience
adverse shifts in sentiment of market and is less exposed to them should they occur.
Cutting Argentina's public obligation requires decreases in broad daylight spending, changes
in the expense which will be intended to build government incomes, and arrangements to
animate fare development over the medium to since quite a while ago run. The reception of
such arrangements is the key test confronting Argentina and various other arising economies,
and it is a significant essential for accomplishing dependability in a globalized
economy.Many a times countries have gone through crisis. Argentina crisis was a great
learning experience for economists. Having less exports, having demand of imported
products less dependency on domestic products was a great concern. In case of argentina we
saw negative effect of pegging a currency against other. The one one to conversion rate
caused buying of foreign industry products rather than development of domestic industry.The
recovery was also interesting. The devalued currency peso led to high exports. High exports
caused the economic recovery. The emergency is an illustration of apparently great approach
turned out badly. Having a cash board appeared to be a sensible measure to battle excessive
inflation. Indeed, it worked, permitting Argentina to have elevated levels of development
during the 90s, and produce enough trust in their bonds to discharge significant levels of
obligation. In any case at last, a Peso fixed to the dollar projected a bleak shadow over
Argentina. The emergency additionally represents the risks of supporting an enormous
government shortage over a drawn out period. A huge shortage combined with uncompetitive
fares drove Argentina into one annihilating downturn.
No matter what kind of reform is initiated, the very fact remains you would like sound
economic policies that are sustained by all of the market participants. simply because the
crisis is manageable today doesn't mean that it'll not deteriorate into a full-blown crisis
tomorrow. There are many suggestions for reform, or differing types of reform. a number of
these suggestions are: first, forgive countries debts; second, some recommend that
governments and commercial banks cancel a number of the debts; third, restructure the IMF
demands of countries in debt; 4th, reduce trade restrictions on the products of poor nations;
fifth, loans and grants to poor nations should be in smaller amounts and specifically applied;
and 6th, create new ratios for the heavily indebted poor countries. Use debt to GDP and debt
to budget expenditures rather than debt to exports and debt service to exports.
References: