Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Forecasting means estimation of type, quantity and quality of future works e.g. sales etc.
It is a calculated economic analysis.
I. Average method:
Forecast sales for next period = Average sales for previous period
759858
Forecast sales for Period No 7 7
6
II. Forecast by Moving Average:
In this method the forecast is neither influenced by very old data nor does it solely
reflect the figures of the previous period.
Example: Year Period Sales Four-period average forecasting
1987 1 50
2 60
3 50
4 40
1988 1 50
2 55
50 60 50 40
Forecast for 1988 period 1 50
4
60 50 40 50
Forecast for 1988 period 2 = 50
4
The size of should be chosen in the light of the stability or variability of actual sales,
and is normally from 0.1 to 0.3.
The smoothing constant, , that gives the equivalent of an N-period moving average can
2
be calculated as follows, .
N 1
For e.g. if we wish to adopt an exponential smoothing technique equivalent to a nine-
2
period moving average then, 0.2
9 1
Basically, exponential smoothing is an average method and is useful for forecasting one
period ahead. In this approach, the most recent past period demand is weighted
most heavily. In a continuing manner the weights assigned to successively past period
demands decrease according to exponential law.
Generalized equation:
Ft . 1 dt 1 . 1 dt 2 . 1 dt 3 ......... 1 dt k 1 Ft k
0 1 2 k 1 k
This means that the more recent demands are more heavily weighted than the remote
demands.
V. Regression Analysis:
Regression analysis is also known as method of curve fitting. On this method the data on
the past sales is plotted against time, and the best curve called the ‘Trend line’ or
‘Regression line’ or ‘Trend curve’. The forecast is obtained by extrapolating this trend line
or curve.
For linear regression
y a bx
y bx Past data
a
n
nxy x y Sales
b Fore-
nx x
2 2
cast
y y1
2
Standard error
n 2 Time
Routing & Scheduling
Routing
Routing includes the planning of: what work shall be done on the material to produce
the product or part, where and by whom the work shall be done. It also includes the
determination of path that the work shall follow and the necessary sequence of operations
which must be done on the material to make the product.
The following activities are to be performed in a particular sequence for routing a product
1. Analysis of the product and breaking it down into components.
2. Taking makes or buys decisions.
3. Determination of operations and processing time requirement.
4. Determination of the lot size.
Scheduling
Introduction
Scheduling is used to allocate resources over time to accomplish specific tasks. It should
take account of technical requirement of task, available capacity and forecasted demand.
Forecasted demand determines plan for the output, which tells us when products are
needed. The output-plan should be translated into operations, timing and schedule on the
shop-floor. This involves loading, sequencing, detailed scheduling, expediting and
input/output control.
The Planning and Scheduling Function
Loading
The customer order for each job has certain job contents, which need to be performed on
various work centers or facilities. During each planning period, jobs orders are assigned
on facilities. This ultimately determines the work-load or jobs to be performed in a
planned period.
Sequencing
When number of jobs are waiting in queue before an operational facility (such as, a milling
machine), there is a need to decide the sequence of processing all the waiting jobs.
Sequencing is basically an order in which the jobs, waiting before an operational facility,
are processed. For this, priority rule, processing time, etc., are needed.
Detailed Scheduling
Once the priority rule of job sequencing is known, we can sequence the jobs in a particular
order. This order would determine which job is done first, then which the next one is and
so on. However, sequencing does not tell us the day and time at which a particular job is
to be done. This aspect is covered in detailed scheduling. In this, estimates are prepared
regarding setup and processing time at which a job is due to start and finish. Detailed
schedule is, therefore, useful to organize job, worker, machine, tools, material, etc., at the
specified time.
Expediting
Once the detailed schedule is operationalized, we need to keep a watch over the progress
in the shop-floor. This is necessary to avoid a deviation from the schedule. In case of
deviation from the schedule, the causes of deviation are immediately attended to. For
example, machine breakdown, non-availability of a tool, etc., cause disruption in schedule.
Therefore, continuous follow up or expediting is needed to overcome the deviations from
schedule.
There are two types of schedules used: Master Schedules and Shop or Production
Schedule.
1. Master schedule: The first step in scheduling is to prepare the Master Schedule. A
master schedule specifies the product to be manufactured, the quality to be
produced and the delivery date to the customer. It also indicates the relative
importance or manufacturing orders. The scheduling periods used in the master
schedule are usually months. Whenever a new order is received, it is scheduled on
the master schedule taking into account the production capacity of the plant. Based
on the master schedule, individual components and sub-assemblies that make up
each product are planned:
(i) Orders are placed for purchasing raw materials to manufacture the various
components.
(ii) Orders are placed for purchasing components from outside vendors.
(iii) Shop or production schedules are prepared for parts to be manufactured within
the plant.
2. Shop or production schedule: After preparing the master schedule, the next step is
to prepare shop or production schedule. This includes the department machine and
labour-load schedules, and the start dates and finish dates for the various components to
be manufactured within the plant.
A scheduling clerk does this job so that all processing and shipping requirements are
relatively met. For this, the following are the major considerations to be taken case of:
(i) Due date of the order.
(ii) Whether and where the machine and labour capacity are available.
(iii) Relative urgency of the order with respect to the other orders.
Random List
This list is made according to a random permutation.
In the single machine environment with ready time set at 0 for all jobs, the WSPT
minimizes the weighted mean flow time.
EDD, in the above setting, finds the optimal schedule when one wants to minimize the
maximum lateness, or to minimize the maximum tardiness.
In the single machine environment with ready time set at 0, MST maximizes the
minimum lateness.
Other Algorithms
Hodgson's Algorithm
Hodgson's Algorithm minimizes the number of tardy jobs in the single machine
environment with ready time equal to zero.
Let E denote the set of early jobs and L denote the set of late jobs. Initially, all jobs are
in set E and set L is empty.
Step 1: Order all jobs in the set E using EDD rule.
Step 2: If no jobs in E are late, stop; E must be optimal. Otherwise, find the first late
job in E. Let this first late job be the kth job in set E, job [k].
Step 3: Out of the first k jobs, find the longest job. Remove this job from E and put it
in L. Return to step 2.
Solution:
(i) FCFS (First-come-first-serve) Rule
In this, the job, which arrives first, is scheduled first. Then the next arrived job is
scheduled, and so on.
58
Mean flow time = = 11.6 days
5
25
Average lateness of job = = 5 days.
5
It is observed that SPT sequencing rule (for single machine and many jobs) performs
better than other rules in minimizing total flow time, average flow time, and average
lateness of jobs. It may be noted that this observation is valid for any “n job- one
1 M1 M2 Mm
2
4 n
Flow shop with two machines in series with unlimited storage in between the two
machines.
There are n jobs and the processing time of job j on machine 1 is p1j and the processing
time on machine 2 is p2j the rule that minimizes the make span is commonly referred to
as Johnson’s rule.
Analysis of Result
The present sequence is analyzed for time on machines as follows:
* Processing time for J6 on M2 is 1 min and its processing on M1 is over only after 1
min. Therefore, only after 1 min, next job J1 will start on M1 and J6 will go on M2.
* * Job3 will start on M2 only after 35 min as it’s out-time on M1 is 35 min. In all other
cases, the jobs are waiting to be loaded on M2 (except J6 and J3).
(a) Idle time for machine 1 = (Total elapsed time) – (Total busy time for machine 1)
6
= T ti1 = 36 – 35 = 1 min.
i 1
6
(b) Idle time for machine 2 = T ti 2
i 1
= 36 – (5 + 8 + 1 + 3 + 6 + 10) = 36 – 33 = 3 min.
Scheduling of Six Jobs on 2 Machine
Step 1
Take two hypothetical machines R and S. The processing time on R and S is calculated as
follows:
tiR ti1 ti 2
tiS ti 2 ti 3
Step 2
Use Johnson's algorithm to schedule jobs on machines R and S with tiR and tiS .
Example:
Six jobs are to be processed on three machines. The processing time is as
follows. Find the optimal schedule so that the total elapsed time is minimized.
Solution:
Check for necessary conditions:
Min {ti1} = 1
Max {ti2} = 6
Min {ti3} = 6
Now, since Min {ti3} Max {ti2}; and, Min {ti1} Max {ti2} are satisfied, the Jackson's
algorithm may be used.
Now, let us frame two hypothetical machines R and S on which the processing times are:
Using Johnson's algorithm the optimum sequence for two machines R and S and six jobs
is:
Job 2
Example:
Use Hodgson's algorithm to schedule five jobs for which the processing time (ti)
and due-date (di) are as follows:
Solution:
Using EDD Rule
Steps: Higden Algorithm (step explained below).
Step 1: Identify first job which is late = 4th job.
Step 2: Form a string of jobs into first late job.
Step 3: Identify in this string the job of maximum processing time = Job 4 with
maximum Processing time = job 4.
Step 4: Remove this job from string of jobs and put in the new late job in the string and
repeat Steps 1 to 4.
Despatching
After the schedule has been completed, the production planning and control department
makes a master manufacturing order with complete information including routing, the
desired completion dates within each department or on each machine and the engineering
drawings. From this master manufacturing order, departmental manufacturing orders
can be made up giving only the information necessary for each individual foreman.
These include inspection tickets and authorization to move the work from one department
to the next when each department's work is completed. When a foreman of a particular
department receives the manufacturing order, he is authorized to begin production in his
department. The despatching of these orders and instructions at the proper time to the
proper people is usually done by a person know as “Despatcher”.
So, “Despatcher” function consists of issuing the orders and instruction which sets
production in "motion in accordance with production schedules and routings. This
function is purely a clerical function and requires voluminous paper work.
Duties of a Despatcher
1. Initiate the work by issuing the current work order instructions and drawings to the
different production departments, work stations, machine operators or foremen. The
various documents despatched include: detailed machine schedules, route sheets,
operations sheets, materials requisition forms, machine loading cards, move or
material ticket and inspection ticket plus work order.
[Note: It is not raw material it is material from store]
2. Release materials from stores.
3. Release production tooling, that is, all tools, jigs, fixtures and gauges for each
operation before operation is started.
4. Keep a record of the starting and completion date of each operation.
5. Getting reports back from the men when they finish the jobs.
Works order documents. The usual formats of various works order documents used by
the despatcher are the route sheet (card), operation sheet and machine loading chart.
1. Work order
2. Machine load chart
3. Material requisition form [but not raw material]
4. Move ticket
5. Inspection ticket
The term "despatching" is not much heard. in decentralized control where the foreman
passes out the jobs. It is used mainly with centralized control where the production
control’s branch office (despatch office) in each department tells men what jobs to work
on. In this system, one shop order copy, known as "traveller", circulates through the shop
with the parts.
Product Development
What is Product Development?
Product development is the process of designing, creating, and marketing an idea or
product. The product can either be one that is new to the market place or one that is new
to your particular company, or, an existing product that has been improved. In many
instances a product will be labelled new and improved when substantial changes have
been made.