THE GREAT 2008 CHINESE ICE STORM

Its Socioeconomic–Ecological Impact and

Sustainability Lessons Learned
by Benzhi Zhou, Lianhong Gu, Yihui Ding, L an Shao, Zhongmin Wu, Xiaosheng Yang, Changzhu Li,
Zhengcai Li, Xiaoming Wang, Yonghui Cao, Bingshan Zeng, Mukui Yu, Mingyu Wang,
Shengkun Wang, Honggang Sun, Aiguo Duan, Yanfei An, Xu Wang, and Weijian Kong

An unprecedented storm that inflicted direct economic

losses exceeding U.S.$20 billion demonstrated that an
extreme event lasting days can undo socioeconomic
and ecological structures decades in the making.

E
xtreme weather and climate events shape the evolution of
human and natural systems (Sarewitz and Pielke 2001).
Throughout history, their unexpected occurrence has
repeatedly caught societies off guard and led to disasters and
contributed to the downfall of prosperous dynasties and civiliza-
tions (Diamond 2005; Yancheva et al. 2007). Although extreme
events are an act of physical processes of the climate system,
their impact is determined in the context of human and natural
systems (Sarewitz and Pielke 2001; Diamond 2005). Economic
structures, societal behaviors, critical technologies, and managed
and unmanaged life support systems interact to either prevent or
promote the transition of natural events into human disasters.
Understanding this transition is essential for identifying and
reducing the vulnerability of human systems to extreme events,
and for bridging the gap between science and decision making.
Sustainability science seeks to develop this knowledge, and me-
teorologists can and must play a critical role in this mission.
Case studies of extreme weather and climate events are pivotal
to understanding their societal impact in the context of sustain-
ability science. To avoid being constrained by the idiosyncrasy
of an individual event, a case study must 

Ice-coated forest with decapitated trees in southern China.

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Fig . 1. The encounter of continental polar (cP; blue arrows) with tropical
maritime (mT; red arrows) air masses to the east of Tibetan Plateau. The pink
oval marks the ice storm region. The thicker arrows indicate the dominant
directions in airmass movement.
integrate across atmospheric sciences, the delivery of
weather information, sociology, economics, ecology,
technologies, and the decision-making process to
look for common threads. Only through such inte-
gration can a comprehensive picture of the evolution
from a natural phenomenon to a human disaster
be generated and sustainability lessons of broad
implication be learned. However, comprehensive
assessments of the causes and consequences of ex-
AFFILIATIONS: Zhou, Yang , Z. Li, X. Wang , Cao, Yu, S un, A n,
and Kong —Research Institute of Subtropical Forestry, Chinese
Academy of Forestry, Fuyang, China; Gu —Environmental Sci-
ences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge,
Tennessee; Ding —National Climate Center, China Meteoro-
logical Administration, Beijing, China; S hao —China National
Forestry Industry Association, Beijing, China; Wu, Zeng, S. Wang,
and Xu Wang —Research Institute of Tropical Forestry, Chinese
Academy of Forestry, Guangzhou, China; C. Li —Hunan Academy
of Forestry, Changsha, China; M. Wang —Institute of Forest
Ecology, Environment and Protection, Chinese Academy of
Forestry, Beijing, China; Duan —Research Institute of Forestry,
Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, China
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Lianhong Gu, Senior Staff
Scientist, Environmental Sciences Division, Building 1509, Oak
Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831–6335
E-mail: lianhong-gu@ornl.gov
The abstract for this article can be found in this issue, following the
table of contents.
DOI:10.1175/2010BAMS2857.1
In final form 27 August 2010
©2011 American Meteorological Society
48 | january 2011
treme events have seldom
been accomplished.
Freezi ng ra i ns, a lso
known as ice storms, are
common in East Asia (Ding
et a l. 2008) and Nor t h
America (Changnon 2003;
Irland 2000). They form
when a warm, moist atmo-
spheric layer overrides a
shallow cold surface layer.
In the United States, 87
catastrophic ice storms
{defined as with proper-
ty damage of more than
$1 million [U.S. dollars
(USD); all future references
to dollars are to USD]} oc-
curred from 1949 to 2000
(Changnon 2003). The 1998
North American ice storm
induced a total loss of $4.4 billion (Gyakum and
Roebber 2001).
The 2008 Chinese ice storm (Stone 2008) struck
the most populated and economically developed
region of China (the south-central region) and was
more damaging than the 1998 North American ice
storm. Its individual episodes occurred for nearly
a month (10 January–6 February). According to
statistics released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs of
China, the direct economic loss alone was more than
$22.3 billion and indirect losses could be even greater
(Ministry of Civil Affairs 2008; Zhao et al. 2008; Peng
and Peng 2008). It is hard to imagine how such losses
could have been prevented, but the same storm would
not have had the same impact 30 years ago. During
the past 30 years, far-reaching economic reforms in
China have dramatically changed the structures of
socioeconomic and managed ecological systems in
the affected region. Evaluating the contribution of
socioeconomic policies and ecosystem management
practices to the observed impact of the ice storm can
provide valuable lessons for planning for ways to
alleviate the risk of future extreme events.
Following the 2008 Chinese ice storm, a mul-
tidisciplinary research team with members from
both inside and outside the storm region compre-
hensively assessed the event’s cause and impact.
First-hand experience of the storm coupled with
documents from governmental agencies and disci-
plinary reports from other scientists provided us an
opportunity to develop a relatively complete picture
of the evolution of this unprecedented event from a
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meteorological disturbance to a socioeconomic and Mountains region (~60°E; Fig. 1) split the westerlies
ecological disaster. into northern and southern branches. The northern
Our goal was to draw from the disaster lessons and branch attained Arctic properties from the frigid
general principles of sustainable socioeconomic and Arctic surface and then swung back to the south and
ecological development that would be useful in plan- eventually ended up in China. The southern branch
ning for future extreme weather and climate events. circumvented the Pamir Mountains (~39°N, 72°E)
We analyzed the atmospheric general circulation pat- and the Himalayas and traveled to the northern
tern that spawned the ice storm, the impact on critical Indian Ocean. It picked up heat and moisture from
infrastructures, the damage to forest and agricultural the Bay of Bengal and then turned northeastward
ecosystems, the societal response to the disaster, and toward China.
the postdisaster policy influence. We related the struc- Associated with the Ural blocking high was a long
tural vulnerabilities of the socioeconomic and ecologi- pressure ridge stretching all the way to the Moroccan
cal systems exposed by the event to past economic and coast through the western Mediterranean Sea. To
ecosystem management policies and practices. the southeast of this ridge lay a trough extending
from the Aral Sea (45°N, 60°E) through the eastern
THE STORM. The 2008 ice storm was a conse- Mediterranean Sea to northern Africa. Both the
quence of convergence of warm, moist mT and cold 500-hPa ridge and trough were shifted southeastward
cP air masses (Fig. 1). Here we provide a general and were stronger than normal. Meanwhile, to the east
description of key meteorological drivers; technical of the Eurasian continent, the East Asian (500 hPa)
aspects are available in references cited. trough (L. Wang et al. 2009) extended from the Sea of
Okhotsk through the Sea of Japan to the East China
The convergence of two air masses. Around the start of Sea. Compared with its normal wintertime strength,
2008, a persistent summer-monsoon-like flow pattern the East Asian trough deepened in its northern half
formed unseasonably in Southeast Asia. It drove mT
air masses from the Bay of Bengal and South China
Sea to southern and central China, increasing surface
temperatures (Fig. 2) and providing the region with
copious amounts of moisture (Fig. 10 in Shi et al. 2010).
About 10 January 2008, cP air masses also streamed into
the same region via central Asia and Mongolia, resulting
in a sudden surface temperature drop (Fig. 2). The mT
air overrode the cP air to develop an inverted, stable
atmospheric boundary layer with a slanted stationary
frontal surface that stretched across 20° of latitude [see
Figs. 3 and 4 in Tao et al. (2008), 852–853], a favorable
configuration for freezing rains over a large region
(oval in Fig.1).
The convergence of mT and cP air masses was
caused by an unusual atmospheric general circu-
lation pattern in the Northern Hemisphere (see
Fig. 4 in Wen et al. 2009; Fig. 7 in Bao et al. 2010;
Fig. 7 in Ding et al. 2008, p. 816; also see Shi et al.
2010; Ding et al. 2009; Gao et al. 2008; Tao et al.
2008; D. Wang et al. 2008; L. Wang et al. 2008;
Y. Wang et al. 2008; Z. Wang et al. 2008; Yang et al.
2008). Over the Eurasian continent, the upper-
tropospheric flow (200 hPa) was characterized by
a southeastward-shifted, stronger-than-normal
Middle East jet stream over northern Saudi Arabia
F ig . 2. Daily mean surface temperatures and pre-
and by a northwestward-retracted but also stronger- cipitation accumulation at the weather station of (a)
than-normal East Asian jet stream to the south of Changsha and (b) Guiyang. The large drop in the tem-
Japan. In the middle troposphere (500 hPa), a strong peratures indicates that the advancing mT is abruptly
blocking high over the meridionally oriented Ural displaced from the surface by the arriving cP.

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 But in its path lay the lofty
Pamir Mountains, which
split the flow and forced a
branch of air to turn east
into the Tarim basin (cen-
tered at ~39°N, 83°E) in
Xinjiang, China, from the
direction of Lake Balkhash
(~46°N, 75°E; Kazakhstan)
to Lake Issyk-Kul (~42°N,
77°E; Kyrgyzstan). Once
the cold air mass reached
t he Tarim basin, t here
were no geographical bar-
riers to stop its advance
into eastern China. The
cold front swept across the
Tarim basin, dumping a
large amount of snow in
the Tak limakan Desert
Fig. 3. Satellite image showing snow in Taklimakan Desert, a consequence
(Fig. 3). Flowing down the
of cold airmass invasion from central Asia. This cold air mass is to meet ancient Silk Road along the
with warm, moist air mass from the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea generally flat, sloping land,
to produce freezing rains in southern and central China (see Fig. 1). The the cold air mass rushed
image was acquired on 19 Feb 2008, with the Moderate Resolution Imaging through the Hexi Corridor,
Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the National Aeronautics and Space merged with the weaker
Administration (NASA)’s Terra satellite. but cold northerly surface
flow from Mongolia, and
but weakened in its southern half. Farther to the east fanned out east of the Tibetan Plateau into central
of the trough, but still in the northwestern Pacific, was and southern China (Fig. 1).
an anomalous 500-hPa high. To the south of the East Once the cP air mass entered central and southern
Asian trough, the subtropical western Pacific high China, its continuous advance was constrained in the
(500 hPa) was unusually strong, with its ridge shifted east by the East China Mountains along the coast,
northwestward toward the Chinese coast (Fig. 9 in Shi in the south by the Nanling/Wumeng Mountains
et al. 2010). The weakened southern half of the East (~25°N), and in the west by the Hengduan Mountains
Asian trough, the anomalous northwestern Pacific (~100°E) (Fig. 1). Unable to climb over these mountain
high, and the northwestward-shifted, stronger-than- ranges, the cP air was trapped (cold air damming),
normal subtropical western Pacific high worked to- and a relatively shallow freezing layer formed at the
gether to slow down the eastward and southeastward surface [see Fig. 7 in Shi et al. (2010) and Figs. 3 and
movement of weather systems out of China. 4 in Tao et al. (2008), 852–853].
At the surface and to the east of the Ural upper- While the cP air was dammed at the surface, mT
level blocking high, the Asian continental high air masses were still actively moving into the same
(also known as Siberian high) was stronger than region from the south as a result of abnormal atmo-
normal and shifted westward from its average cen- spheric circulation over the northern Indian Ocean
ter near 55°N, 100°E, just northwest of Lake Baikal and the western equatorial Pacific. In January and
(Panagiotopoulos et al. 2005), to near 55°N, 70°E in early February of 2008, the southern branch of the
northern Kazakhstan (Wen et al. 2009). The westward westerlies, split by the Ural blocking high, continu-
shift of the anticyclone allowed cold surface air to ally transported shortwave disturbances to the Bay
stream into China, mainly from the west rather than of Bengal. Meanwhile, anomalous warming took
via the more common northerly route. On the east place over the Tibetan Plateau (Bao et al. 2010). These
flank of the surface anticyclone, the air, which had processes caused the development and deepening of
gained its Arctic properties during its journey in the the Bangladesh southern branch trough. The strength
polar region, moved southward and southeastward. of this southern branch trough may also have been

50 | january 2011
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increased via lee cyclogenesis, resulting from cold air inces of Hunan, Guizhou, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Hubei,
pouring down the southern slope of the Himalayas. Anhui, Yunnan, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Henan
This air had its origin in the anticyclonic flow around that record-breaking freezing rains occurred (these
the east side of the Asian continental high, which was provinces are located roughly within the pink oval in
split by the Pamir Mountains. As a result of the forma- Fig. 1). Ice accumulation averaging more than 50 mm
tion of an active Bangladesh southern branch trough in radial ice thickness (RIT) was observed across
and the stronger-than-normal northwestward-shifted the region (Table 1). On surfaces of roads in Hunan
subtropical western Pacific high, the wind flow pat- Province, ice thickness of more than 100 mm was
tern in Southeast Asia showed striking similarities to observed. The number of ice days varied across the
that of the Asian summer monsoon. affected region, but it was typically between 10 and
As the mT air overrode the cP air, freezing rains 20 days. In parts of Hunan and Guizhou, ice lasted
fell [Fig. 2; see also Figs. 1 and 2 in Shi et al. (2010)]. up to 27 days. For comparison, the great 1998 North
The warm layer melted snowflakes and ice particles American ice storm lasted for 5 days with a 45-mm
falling from aloft. The cold layer at the bottom was ice load recorded in the storm’s center (Gyakum and
too shallow to freeze raindrops before they hit the Roebber 2001).
ground. Upon striking the ground, supercooled The longevity of the 2008 ice storm was a conse-
raindrops spread out and froze, coating the surface quence of a stable atmospheric general circulation
with thick glistening ice. Although heavy snow and pattern in the Northern Hemisphere. During the
sleet also fell during the event, it was the ice that did period of the ice storm, the Ural blocking high was
the most damage (Ding et al. 2008). unusually strong and persistent. As soon as the Ural
blocking high dissipated, the ice storm ended (Ding
The unprecedented ice extent and accumulation. Ice et al. 2008). A strong and persistent Ural blocking
storms are not uncommon in South-central China high coupled with an abnormal development of
because the region’s topography is conducive to cold pressure systems to the east of China, including the
air damming (Fig. 1). Indeed, observations indicated East Asian trough, the northwestern Pacific high,
cold air damming during individual episodes of the and the subtropical western Pacific high, led to the
2008 ice storm [see Fig. 7 in Shi et al. (2010); Figs. 3 longevity of the storm within China. As pointed out
and 4 in Tao et al. (2008), 852–853].
However, the 2008 event was unprec-
edented in duration, spatial extent,
and ice load. Starting on 10 January,
four separate waves of freezing rain
(10–16 January, 18–22 January, 25–
29 January, and 31 January–6 Febru-
ary) struck the same region [Fig. 2,
also see Fig. 2a for regional average
in Shi et al. (2010)]. The intervals
between successive waves were too
short for the ice to melt or be broken
and cleared with shovels or even
military personnel carriers before
the next waves started (Fig. 4). Thus,
as waves of freezing rain came,
ice kept accumulating on the sur-
faces of trees, crops, power lines,
roofs, highways, train tracks, and
bridges. By the time the last wave Fig. 4. (a) Ice-coated road (2 Feb 2008 in northern Guangdong Province),
ended, 20 provinces and autono- (b) fallen electrical lines (3 Feb 2008, southern Hunan Province), and
(c),(d) ice-stranded travelers in Guangzhou Railway Station in the
mous regions had been severely af-
southern coastal city of Guangzhou (31 Jan 2008). These pictures were
fected. Based on weather station data taken during the fourth (last) wave of freezing rain. Photos courtesy
compiled by China Meteorological of (a) Xinhua News Agency, (b) Hunan Forestry Administration, and
Administration (Z. Wang et al. 2008; (c),(d) Nanfang Metropolitan Daily (the photographer for photos (c)
Yang et al. 2008), it was in the prov- and (d) are Yiqi Chen and Qianhua Fang, respectively).

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY january 2011 | 51

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 earlier, the unseasonable development and deepening
of the Bangladesh southern branch trough was also
an important factor, as it worked in conjunction with
the subtropical western Pacific high to drive mT air
masses northward to meet with the cP air masses.
It is currently not clear whether the apparently
synchronized abnormal activities in the high and
low latitudes and the anomalous warming over the
Tibetan Plateau were related. Also not clear is why
these abnormal activities were so stable for so long.
Suggestions as to the roles of La Niña, the north polar
vortex, and intraseasonal oscillation have been made
but definitive answers have not been found (Hong and
Li 2009; Gao 2009).
It is worth noting that the same abnormal atmo-
spheric general circulation pattern spawned a chain
of extreme events from western to eastern Asia (Ding
et al. 2008). For the first time in 100 years, snow fell
in Baghdad, Iraq. Heavy snow also fell in Tehran,
Iran. In Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, low temperature
records were broken. In Afghanistan, continual heavy
snow caused avalanches. But it was in central and
southern China where the extremity of the weather
reached a new level and took the more damaging form
of an ice storm owing to the convergence of cP and
mT air masses and the copious amounts of moisture
in the mT air masses.
THE IMPACT. The Chinese government uses a
comprehensive, hierarchical approach to collecting
data related to disasters. Data are first collected at
the lowest administrative unit (i.e. township/village)
and reported to the next level of administration (i.e.,
county). The provincial and/or directly controlled
municipal government then compiles the data and
reports to the central government. Governmental
agencies reported impact statistics both during and
after the storm and thus the data changed as the
Table 1. Examples of observed ice thickness during the 2008 Chinese ice storm (10 Jan–6 Feb 2008).
Location Radial ice thickness (mm)
Mount Jigongshan, Henan Province
160
(31°50´N, 114°05´E)
Mount Huangshan, Anhui Province
61
(32°42´N, 114°03´E)
Mount Lushan, Jiangxi Province
84
(29°34´N, 115°58´E)
Tongren, Guizhou Province
83
(27°44´N, 109°11´E)
Most parts of Hunan Province >70 mm
52 | january 2011
event evolved. We only used data from the last report
or last news release from an agency. We conducted
our own site surveys in 2008 and 2009 in the long-term
ecological research stations at the Nanling Natural
Reserve (Guangdong Province) and the Dagangshan
Mountains (Jiangxi Province). These surveys used
randomly selected plots to determine the percentage
and types of tree damage in different forest stands.
We also visited villages and forest plantations in the
counties of Yongxing, Zixing, and Guiyang of Hunan
Province, in the county of Taihe (the Qianyanzhou
Ecological Research Station) of Jiangxi Province,
and in the county of Jiangshan of Zhejiang Province.
These visits collected information on how the level of
damage was related to the use of tree species in planta-
tions and to past forest management practices and on
how the destruction of forest plantations might affect
the livelihood of villagers in the future.
Human impacts. The 2008 ice storm affected an ac-
cumulated 100 million people for days to weeks to
nearly a month, depending on locations (Zhao et al.
2008; Peng and Peng 2008; Ma 2009). The first criti-
cal infrastructure to fail across the affected region
was the electrical grid (Fig. 4). In the province of
Guizhou, about 80% of the power supply facilities
were damaged. In the province of Hunan, the power
grid in and around the city of Chenzhou (25°46ʹN,
113°01ʹE) was almost completely destroyed and had
to be rebuilt, leaving the city’s population of more
than four million in the dark for several weeks.
Table 2 summarizes the national statistics of power
grid damage.
The power grid failure triggered a cascade of
breakdowns of other lifeline systems. Tap water
stopped f lowing. Cooking and heating became
impossible for millions of families. Hospitals and
factories closed. Mines were submerged because of
Date observed
12 Jan 2008
27 Jan 2008
27 Jan 2008
29 Jan 2008
Throughout the storm period
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Table 2. Major direct impacts of the 2008 Chinese ice storm.
Description
Categories (destroyed or otherwise stated) Source
Human life 129 dead, 1.7 million displaced Zhao et al. (2008)
36,740 high-voltage transmission lines; 8,381 China Electricity Council
Infrastructure Power grids
towers; 2,018 transformer stations (2008)
Communication 35,000 telephone poles; 20,000 mobile phone News Office of the State
systems base stations Council (2008)
40% of the winter crops in China, 75 million
Food production Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture (2008)
livestock (mostly poultry)
Jin et al. (2008); Li and Wang
Apiculture 30% of bee colonies in Zhejiang Province
(2008)
3.4 million pairs of broodstock, 0.42 million
Aquaculture Ministry of Agriculture (2008)
tons of fingerlings, 0.45 million tons of adult fish
20 million hectares with >10% standing volume
Forest Resources Management
Forests loss, 10% of national forest cover, 3% of
Department (2008)
national forest standing volume
No systematic survey but dead wild animals Song (2008);
Wildlife
widely seen in natural reserves S. Wang et al. (2008)
Buildings 0.5 million collapsed, 1.7 million partial damage Zhao et al. (2008)

inoperable pumps. The railway system, the principal
mode of passenger movement in China, was disrupted
not by the ice cover on tracks per se but by powerless
electric trains. Meanwhile, highways were blocked by
ice, and airports were closed because of treacherous
runways and atmospheric conditions.
The simultaneous failure of all three transport
modes could not have come at a worse time. It oc-
curred right before the Chinese New Year, the most
important holiday for family reunions. Even with
good weather, travel during this time of year in China
is hectic and demands optimum operation of all
transportation systems. Transportation disruption
quickly turned into logistical nightmare for the entire
country. A large number of people were stranded in
railway stations, airports, and highways. An estimate
of 5.8 million travelers were stuck in railway stations
alone (News Office of the State Council 2008). At
one time, the front square of the Guangzhou Railway
Station was jam-packed with 800,000 people (Fig. 4).
In one highway section in Hunan, more than 20,000
vehicles with more than 60,000 passengers were im-
mobilized by ice and snow in every direction.
With all transportation systems frozen, supply
chains of energy, food, and other vital goods were
broken. Coal reserves reached emergency levels.
Power plants had to be shut down. Food shortages
occurred in a region that has plenty under normal
conditions. In some cities, food prices soared by
1,000%. For example, in the city of Chenzhou, the
price of a pack of instant noodles rose from less than a
dollar to nearly 10 dollars. In locations such as railway
stations and inside train carriages, no food could be
bought. Because the storm struck the transportation
hubs of China, the entire country was affected. The
consumer price index nationwide increased by 34%
from December of 2007 to February of 2008 (National
Bureau of Statistics 2008a,b).
Communication systems were also knocked out
collectively (Table 2). Communication system failure
may be a factor in the initial sluggish governmental re-
sponse, leading to ineffective traffic controls on high-
ways and crowd management in railway stations.
The storm claimed 129 lives (Zhao et al. 2008). The
number of casualties was relatively small when exam-
ined in the context of 1.5 million people displaced,
half a million buildings collapsed, and other massive
physical damages (Table 2). The fact that the disaster
occurred just days before the most cherished fam-
ily reunion holiday may have stimulated among the
Chinese people a sense of kinship and thus encour-
aged them to work together to overcome the crisis
(Xin 2008; Fig. 4). More important to the limited loss
of human life was the fact that ambient temperatures
were ironically not particularly low for that time of
year. In the affected region, winter temperatures
below –5°C are common. The coldest winter (1954/55)
of the recent history had minimum temperatures of
–18° to –21°C in the Huai River basin, –10° to –15°C
in the Yangtze River basin, and –5° to –8°C in south

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY january 2011 | 53

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 species previously known in the re-
serve could not be found any more
(S. Wang et al. 2008).
The damage to the country’s bur-
geoning forests was of particular con-
cern because of the scale and potential
long-term consequences (Table 2).
Central and southern China has been
undergoing intensive reforestation
since the 1980s. With plenty of rain
and relatively fertile soils, forest plan-
tation productivity in this region
was among the highest in China. At
the time of the storm, these planta-
tions were mostly at young to middle
ages and thus in their most produc-
tive stages of stand development.
Unfortunately, the storm destroyed
F ig . 5. Forest stands damaged by the ice storm. (a) Eucalyptus 30 years of hard work to reforest the
spp plantation in Huangmian Forest Center, Guangxi Zhuang region. Ice accumulation on trees led
Autonomous Region, 30 Jan 2008. (b) Slash pine (Pinus elliottii
to widespread crown decapitation,
Engelm.) plantation in Ji’an, Jiangxi, 13 Mar 2008. (c) Moso bamboo
(Phyllostachys heterocycla var. pubescens) plantation in Dagangshan, stem breakage, branch snapping,
Jiangxi, 25 Apr 2008. (d) Ice-covered trees in Tianjingshan Forest bending, and uprooting (Fig. 5).
Center, Guangdong, 3 Feb 2008. Courtesy of (a) Yunfeng Chen and Single-species plantations suf-
(b) Huagui Peng. fered the most severe damage (crown
decapitation and stem breakage).
China. In contrast, minimum temperatures in the Plantations of pines (e.g. Pinus massoniana Lambert)
same region were mostly above –5°C during the 2008 that had been excessively tapped for oleoresins, and
ice storm (Ding et al. 2009), and in the hardest-hit exotic tree species suffered whole-stand destruction in
region mean daily temperatures fluctuated around much of the region. Oleoresin tapping through bark
0°C (Fig. 2a). Fortunately, the relatively warm condi- chipping, which was common in the region, created a
tions during the 2008 ice storm may have spared the weak spot on the stem. In the oleoresin-tapping pine
lives of many displaced people. plantations we surveyed, nearly all stem breakages
occurred at the tapping spot. Plantations of exotic
Impacts on managed and natural ecosystems. The ice species, such as Pinus elliottii Engelm and Pinus taeda
load proved to be too much for crops, domestic and L. (both native to the southeastern United States) and
wild animals, and trees. Agriculture, apiculture, Eucalyptus spp. (native to Australia), were very popu-
aquaculture, and forestry all suffered heavy losses lar in the region because of their fast growth. These
(Table 2). The loss of wildlife in the region’s more species had no resistance to ice accumulation. Even
than 800 natural reserves has not been systemati- in places where they survived physical destruction,
cally surveyed but scattered reports depicted a grim physiological damage (e.g. cambium browning) was
picture. In the Mangshan Natural Reserve (24°58ʹN, observed during our field investigation.
112°49ʹE) located in the province of Hunan, starva- The damage to forests led to secondary hazards.
tion and freezing killed about 200 large protected Soil erosion and landslides increased. The sudden in-
wild animals, including monkeys and sambars, and crease in wounded trees resulted in insect infestation
10,000 birds, including yellow-bellied tragopans, and tree disease, and the large accumulation of dead
silver pheasants, tits, and bamboo partridges (Song litter on forest floors provided fuel for fires (Fig. 6).
2008). The number of migratory birds overwintering Forest fires increased substantially in subsequent
in Lake Poyang (29°10ʹN, 116°13ʹE) in the province months. In the province of Hunan, for example, the
of Jiangxi was 20% below normal. In the Nanling number of forest fires in March 2008 was 11 times
National Natural Reserve (24°55ʹN, 113°01ʹE) in the higher than the March average of the previous 10
province of Guangdong, the population density of years, and the burned area was 5 times higher than
butterflies decreased by 90%, and 60% of all butterfly the average (M. Wang et al. 2008).

54 | january 2011
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 With such severe large-scale damage, forests in
central and southern China will likely act as carbon
sources for years to come. Before the storm, forests
in this region accounted for 65% of the total ter-
restrial carbon sink of the country and much of this
sink was due to plantations (Piao et al. 2009). Given
the overwhelming importance of this region in the
overall Chinese terrestrial carbon sink, it is doubtful
that the Chinese ecosystems will continue to serve
as a net carbon sink for the country until the forests
in this region are reestablished. Further research on
this issue is needed.
The sudden loss of forest plantations created un-
certainties for the livelihood of tens of thousands of
households who depended on the plantations for cash.
These families drew their incomes from both timber
and nontimber products (e.g., oleoresin tapping).
Because most plantations were destroyed all together,
these families will have to look for new sources of
income for decades to come even if they can manage
to replant the plantations now.
POSTDISASTER POLICY INFLUENCE: THE
IMPORTANCE OF CIRCUMSTANCES. A
weather disaster can benefit long-term societal devel-
opment if the society is willing to grab the “window of
opportunity for change” immediately after the event
to deal with the vulnerabilities exposed (Sarewitz
and Pielke 2001; Birkmann et al. 2010). However,
whether the society can materialize the benefit may
have nothing to do with the disaster itself. A com-
parison of the policy influence of the 2008 ice storm
with that of the 1998 Yangtze River flood (Zong and
Chen 2000) reveals this point. The two events were
similar in their severity and direct economic loss:
both were 100-yr extreme events with a direct loss of
more than $20 billion. The indirect loss of the 2008
ice storm was likely higher because it destroyed large
areas of forests. But in terms of policy influence, the
two events could not differ more. The 1998 flood
shocked the Chinese government into developing and
implementing a comprehensive national forest policy
(Zhang et al. 2000; Liu and Diamond 2005; Liu et al.
2008). That policy, which is still in effect today, has
transformed China into a country with the highest
growth rate of forest cover in the world (FAO 2009).
In contrast, only a few technical adjustments to in-
frastructure have been made after the 2008 ice storm;
for example, the standards of ice loading capacities of
the electrical power grids have been increased and the
transportation sector has been ordered to improve its
disaster preparedness. While these adjustments are
necessary, the 2008 disaster calls for much broader
AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
national economic policy rethinking and redirection.
There is no indication this has happened.
The policy influence of these two events likely
differed for multiple reasons. Public opinion blamed
deforestation in the upper reaches of the Yangtze
River for the 1998 flood, whereas the 2008 ice storm
was believed to be an act of nature; although, in both
cases a combination of natural forces and human
factors was responsible for the losses. The Chinese
meteorological community has made great progress
in improving forecast accuracy, but only recently has
attention been paid to meeting users’ evolving needs
for extreme weather forecasts. The public understood
floods relatively well but had poor knowledge about
ice storms and their potential impacts. Finally, the
2008 ice storm was closely followed by distracting
social and natural incidents. In March, ethnic un-
rest and deadly riots erupted in the Tibet Autono-
mous Region. In May, the great Sichuan earthquake
occurred. In August, the extravagant 2008 Summer
Olympics took place. By the time the flame of the
Olympic torch was extinguished, a rare confluence
of sorrow and ecstasy had erased any trace of re-
membrance of that ice storm from the minds of most
people. Now with fresh memory gone, the window of
opportunity for change offered by this disaster is in
danger of being lost.
SUSTAINABILITY LESSONS. The 2008 ice
storm disaster and the societal response revealed
several lessons of broad implication. Without con-
Fig . 6. Secondary hazards after ice storm damage.
(left) A burned Masson pine (Pinus massoniana L.) stand
that had been damaged earlier by the ice storm in
Guiyang County, Hunan Province; 28 Apr 2008. (right)
A diseased Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata L.) in
an ice-damaged plantation in Qianyanzhou Ecological
Research Station, Jiangxi Province; 23 Apr 2008.
(Photos by Lianhong Gu.)
january 2011 | 55
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 tingency plans, advanced technologies under normal
weather and climate conditions can create worse
problems during extreme events. China has been
modernizing its railway systems with high-speed
electric trains; by 2008, all trains had become elec-
trically operated, and no diesel locomotives or even
their drivers could be found in central and southern
China. Unfortunately, when the storm hit, the first
critical infrastructure to fail was the electric power
grids, making the advanced electric trains useless.
With no hope to restore the power grids soon, the
authorities scrambled to find diesel engines and driv-
ers from technological backwaters (remote parts) of
China and dispatch them to technologically advanced
but storm-fragile central and southern China. Weeks
passed before they finally arrived to the paralyzed
region, and by that time railway stations throughout
the region were already in chaos (Fig. 4). Thus, new
technologies for critical infrastructures, particularly
those dependent on integrated energy supplies, should
be evaluated under both normal and extreme weather
and climate conditions. Contingency plans need to
be developed based on a complete understanding
of their efficiency, safety margins, and potential
vulnerabilities.
The weakest link in weather disaster response lies
between science and decision making. Governments
of the world, regardless of their political systems, are
often accused of incompetency in their responses to
great weather disasters. The Chinese government did
not escape this fate in its dealing with the 2008 ice
storm; its efforts in managing mass movement and
disaster relief were criticized in particular. The per-
ceived ineffective governmental responses were not
due to inadequate science (inaccurate weather fore-
cast). Although the prediction of the coming of four
waves of freezing rain was beyond the capability of
current numerical weather forecast models (because
the overall duration exceeded their upper limit of
reliable lead time), Chinese meteorologists were able
to forecast each wave fairly accurately (Ding et al.
2008). Thus, on first thought, the criticism lashed
out against the Chinese government seems to have
some basis. However, such hindsight criticism is not
constructive because it ignores a deeper reason for
response failures.
The magnitude of an unprecedented extreme event
such as the 2008 ice storm can be so large and the se-
verity and scope of its impact can be so complex that
it is impossible to foresee immediately what needs to
be done. Multiple interrelated critical infrastructures
often fail in sequence, creating ripple effects across
every corner of the society. To make the right decision
56 | january 2011
and to initiate the right response, the decision maker
must be able to develop an accurate mental image of
these complicated interrelations of failures and ripple
effects within a limited period of time and under
stress. This is too much to expect, even for a compe-
tent and experienced decision maker who is given an
absolutely accurate weather forecast and who under-
stands the forecast and its implication. The competent
decision maker might not be able to make the right
decision even after the extreme event has commenced
because the communication system is often among
the first to fail, and the decision maker could not get
real-time assessment of the ground truth.
Therefore, and unfortunately, accurate weather
forecasts (good science) and competent decision mak-
ers are not a guarantee of successful disaster plans
or responses. An integrated extreme weather impact
forecast system is needed to bridge the gap between
science and decision making (Morss et al. 2008). The
system should generate a range of plausible future
conditions with the uncertainty of each condition
clearly quantified; predict corresponding social, eco-
nomical, and ecological vulnerabilities; provide pos-
sible impact scenarios; and suggest logical responses
and decision options for policy makers, business
sectors, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and
other users to consider. The multiple functions must
be performed seamlessly and the forecast products
must be understandable and actionable to laypersons.
Toward this goal, a transition from a forecast-only
practice to a user-central operation by the meteoro-
logical community is needed. Methods for building
such a system represent a crucial research need for
sustainability science and a challenge for disaster
management (Morss et al. 2005).
Biodiversity is a form of long-term insurance of sustain-
able forestry against extreme events. In central and
southern China, plantations are dominated by just a
few tree species, mainly the native species Pinus mas-
soniana Lambert, Cunninghamia lanceolata Lambert
(Hooker), Phyllostachys heterocycla var. pubescens,
and the exotic species Pinus elliottii, Pinus taeda,
and Eucalyptus spp. All these species were selected
for fast growth under normal weather and climate
conditions. Unfortunately, these species, particularly
the introduced ones, were not good at surviving ice
storms (Fig. 5).
Species susceptibility to ice storms is affected by
crown forms, branching patterns, physical properties
of wood, and tree physiology. Different species can
have drastically different responses to similar ice
accumulation (Bragg et al. 2003). China has some of
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the greatest tree species diversity in the world, and
central and southern China is the main biodiversity
hot spot (Liu et al. 2003). The region has plenty of
candidate species for plantations with a high degree
of resistance to ice storms (Fig. 5, panel d). Hindsight
suggests that past reforestation efforts have not made
use of this advantage. Instead, too much emphasis has
been placed on short-term growth; the long-term risk
of extreme events has been ignored. Past management
decisions allowed a single extreme event with a dura-
tion of days to destroy the results of decades of invest-
ment. Sustainable forestry requires balancing fast
growth under normal conditions with survivability
under extreme conditions, which can be obtained by
diversifying tree species in plantations at local and
regional scales.
Sustainable extraction of nontimber goods is es-
sential to planning for the risk of extreme events in
forest resources use. In China and other developing
countries, nontimber products from forests provide
continuous sources of income for villagers and
are essential for combating deforestation and for
promoting reforestation (FAO 2009). However, the
2008 ice storm demonstrated that excessive extraction
of nontimber products jeopardizes tree survivability
during extreme events. In our survey of pine planta-
tions in central and southern China, we found wide-
spread use of excessive bark cuts for oleoresin tapping,
often with more than half of the stem circumference
removed. These excessive cuts may not lead to tree
death under normal conditions but exacerbate the
destruction of pine plantations by the storm. Planning
for sustainable extraction of nontimber products
should be an integral part of the governing strategy
for the long-term use of forest resources to accom-
modate the risk of extreme events.
Extreme events can cause food shortages directly
by destroying crops and indirectly by disrupting food
distribution channels. In modern societies, sites of
food production and consumption are separated.
Abundance of food at the production site cannot
guarantee food security at the consumption site
unless channels between the two are kept open. The
2008 ice storm showed that there are both direct
and indirect paths for extreme events to cause food
shortage. At least during and immediately after an
extreme event, the indirect path (disrupting food dis-
tribution channels) can be more important than the
direct path (destroying crops or reducing crop yields).
Attention to both paths is needed to fully prepare for
the impact of extreme events on food security.
Concentrated economic development and re-
gional imbalance increases societal vulnerability to
AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
extreme events. The Chinese economy is regionally
imbalanced. Large cities and coastal areas dominate
over countryside and inland regions. The regional
economic imbalance has created an extraordinary
number of migratory workers. In 2005 alone, an es-
timated 126 million people left their homeland and
looked for jobs somewhere else (Gong et al. 2008).
Consequently, tidal waves of human transportation
occur within about 15 days around the annual fam-
ily reunion time: Chinese New Year. On an average
day during this period, 5 million passengers travel by
train alone. All transport systems attempt to operate
near-full capacities or breaking points to bring travel-
ers home on time. As a result, China is exceptionally
vulnerable to winter storms during this heavy travel
period.
The regional economic imbalance also means that
critical infrastructures are highly concentrated. The
majority of strategic highways, railways, and electric
grids are located in a long, narrow, north–south band
between Beijing and Guangzhou. Any disruption
at one point of this long band influences the entire
country. Additionally, the imbalance increases the
distance between the production and consumption
sites of life-supporting materials. As the population
of China’s cities grows, food and energy must be
brought in from places increasingly far away, creating
more opportunities for extreme events to block the
distribution channels and decouple consumption
from production.
Formalized institutional mechanisms are needed to
ensure that unexpected opportunities to learn lessons
from weather disasters are not lost in distracting
circumstances. Our analysis of postdisaster policy
responses indicates that governments and citizens
may react to weather and climate disasters of similar
magnitude in starkly contrasting ways, and whether
valuable lessons can be learned and implemented
depends on circumstances. This is unfortunate since
nature does not give humans many opportunities
to learn from deadly weather disasters (Dale et al.
1998). Formalized institutional mechanisms are
needed to prevent distractions and to ensure that
when a weather disaster occurs, nations may learn
from it thoroughly. Development of such mechanisms
requires concerted efforts of natural and social scien-
tists, NGOs, and governmental agencies.
CONCLUDING REMARKS. The 2008 Chinese
ice storm demonstrated that an extreme event of days
in duration can undo socioeconomic and ecological
structures decades in the making. Sustainable national
development requires balancing economic growth
january 2011 | 57
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 rate with the need to reduce the risk of catastrophic
setback caused by extreme weather and climate events.
Socioeconomic policies and management practices
driven by short-term gains may promote phase transi-
tion from natural events to human disasters. Extreme
events expose structural vulnerabilities of socioeco-
nomic and managed ecological systems that may be
concealed in normal weather and climate conditions.
A surprising number of common sustainability prin-
ciples can be established via an integrated impact
assessment of an extreme event, suggesting a central
role for extreme events in the research of sustainability
science. Such an assessment can also reveal ways for
weather forecasts to better serve the changing needs of
the society and economy in an uncertain climate.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We thank Drs. Q. Lu, Y.
D. Wang, G. R. Yu, Y. X. Wei, G. F. Shao, C. S. Li, R. D.
Davis, S. Yang, X. B. Zeng, J. G. “Jack” Liu, S. G. Pallardy,
D. Kaiser, X. Y. Shi, J. F. Mao, R. Cook, V. Dale, P. J.
Hanson, and researchers in the long-term ecological re-
search stations at Nanling, Dagangshan, and Qianyanzhou
and in Hunan Academy of Forestry for their assistance
in the research and for their comments. Field study was
sponsored by the Chinese Academy of Forestry (Grants
CAFYBB2008006 and RISF060701). The study was initi-
ated during a trip to China by L. Gu, sponsored by NASA
Grant NNG09HP12I. Gu carried out the research and
writing of the paper afterward with support from the
U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science,
Biological and Environmental Research Program, Climate
and Environmental Sciences Division. ORNL is managed
by UT-Battelle, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy
under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725.
Author contribution statement: B. Z. Zhou and L. H. Gu
initiated, designed, and contributed equally to the research.
Y. H. Ding and L. H. Gu carried out the meteorological
analysis. X. S. Yang conducted the research and data
analysis on social and economical impacts. L. Shao, Z. M.
Wu, C. Z. Li, Z. C. Li, X. M. Wang, Y. H. Cao, M. Y. Wang,
B. S. Zeng, M. K. Yu, S. K. Wang, H. G. Sun, A. G. Duan,
Y. F.An, X. Wang, W. J. Kong, and B.Z. Zhou conducted
the research and data analysis on ecological impacts.
B. Z. Zhou and L. H. Gu conducted the overall synthesis.
L. H. Gu drafted the manuscript and subsequently revised
it according to comments from the coauthors.
Notice: This manuscript has been authored by UT-
Battelle, LLC, under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725
with the U.S. Department of Energy. The United States
government retains and the publisher, by accepting the
article for publication, acknowledges that the United States
government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable,
worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published
58 | january 2011
form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for United
States government purposes.
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