Classes of Variables

Research pitfall: arise from unsuccessfully

separating sources of variation and relationships
of interes from those that are extraneous or
nuisances
 Sumber Variasi
1. Faktor kebetulan
2. Variasi yang berhubungan dengan design
factors/threatment factors,
3. Variasi yang tidak berhubungan dengan design
faktors/threatment factors.
Agar penelitian valid: harus yakin bahwa variasi
disebakan oleh design factors bukan karena
intrinsic variation atau confounding factors→perlu
desain penelitian yang baik.
Explanatory variable: predictor and predictand
(that predict and those that are predicted)
Extraneous variable: disturbing variables,
controlled variables, or randomized variables
 Explanatory Variables
Explanatory variables: are the focus of the study,
and are chosen by the scientist conducing the
study.
a. Predictands: also called response variable or
dependent variable or Y variables, which are
the variable(s) of interest whose behaviour
the hypothesis predicts.
b. Predictors: variables that are purpoted by the
hypothesis to cause the behaviour of the
predictand
The relationship between predictor and
predictand is the focus of the science.
The goal of the study is to identify the
relationship in an unbiased fashion with
maximal precision.
 Disturbing Variables
Extraneuos variables are variables that
potentially have an effect on the behaviour of
the predictand, but are more nuisance than of
interest to the scientist.
If it not dealt properly either through control or
randomization, can bias the results of the
study.
 Controlled variables
• The best way to deal with disturbing variables, if
feasible, is to make them controlled variabls,
thus removing the potential bias and hopefully
increasing overall precision.
• In many design and analysis of variance books,
this controlling is called blocking.
Most experimental designs measures only one or two variables
at a time. Any other factor, which could potentially influence
the results, must be correctly controlled. Its effect upon the
results must be standardized, or eliminated, exerting the same
influence upon the different sample groups.
• For example, if you were comparing cleaning
products, the brand of cleaning product would be
the only independent variable measured. The
level of dirt and soiling, the type of dirt or stain,
the temperature of the water and the time of the
cleaning cycle are just some of the variables that
must be the same between experiments. Failure
to standardize even one of these controlled
variables could cause a confounding variable and
invalidate the results.
 Randomized Variables
• Disturbing variables that can not be controlled
through design and/or a posteriori analysis.
• This can occur:
a. The variable migh simply unrecognized, given
that there are myriad potential sources of
variation in nature
b. The investigator might recognize the potential
problem conceptually but either does not know
to measure it or it is impractical to do so.
c. There is a limit how many disturbing variable
can be accounted for in a analysis, due to
sample size.
 Randomization
• Important: maintaining objectivity in conducting
research, resulting inference be representativeof
the target population.
• Randomization and replication are important
tools for maintaining the integrity of a study.
• Randomization consists of two facets:
A. Choosing study (sampling or experimental) units
for the study randomly from the target
population,
B. If the study is true experiment, assigning various
treatment of the experiment randomly to the
experiment unit
 Mengapa harus random?
• Menghindari bias.
– Contoh: the first six mice you grab may have intrinsicly higher BP.

• Control the role of chance.

– Randomization allows the later use of probability theory, and so gives
a solid foundation for statistical analysis.

14
At Rothamsted, Fisher mengenali masalah-masalah dalam
eksperiment di bidang pertanian

tempat sama, perlakuan sama, tapi

pertumbuhan tanaman tidak sama...

gemuk Pemecahan menurut

kurus
Fisher:
Ulangan dan
randomisasi untuk
menyebar variasi secara
merata pada masing-
masing perlakuan.
Source of Picture: http://www.ipm.iastate.edu/ipm/icm/files/images/uneven-corn-VS6.jpg
 Pelajaran dari Rothamsted
Percobaan di Rothamsted sebelum Fisher pada
umumnya dilakukan pada dua tempat (masing-
masing 100 tanaman), setiap tanaman menerima
perlakuan.
Contoh: dua level pemupukan dengan nitrogen (N)
Tempat Tempat
dgn level dgn level
N tinggi N rendah

Problem: terlalu banyak variasi dalam tempat

tersebut, sehingga sulit untuk atau tidak mungkin
mengetahui effek dari perlakuan.
 Fisher’s Solution at Rothamsted
– Old Problematic Design: satu areal luas diberi N dengan
dosis tinggi, satu areal luas diberi N dengan dosis rendah).
(Today this design is sometimes called “pseudoreplication” if the
experimenter attempts to say that the sample size is the number
of plants.)

– New Improved Design: banyak plot kecil-kecil, diberi N

rendah atau N tinggi, penentuan areal yang menerima N
rendah atau N tinggi dilakukan secara random, plots bisa
juga diblok untuk membantu mengidentifikasi variasi akibat
lokasi dan kondisi lokal..
Hurlbert, S. H. (1984). Pseudoreplication and the design of ecological field experiments. Ecological monographs 54(2): 187-211.
 Replication
Replication: includes more than one experimental unit for
ecah treatment
Enable the comparison of variability among treatmens
with variability within treatment.
Including at least two unit per treatments is crucial to
being able to test for treatment effect. However, the
more unit per treatment the better the ability to detect
a treatmen effect. The variability among treatments is
not dependent on sample size, but the variability of the
average for a given treatmet is reduced by increasing
sa,ple size, which makes the test for treatment effect
more powerful.
 Unit eksperimen
The fundamental unit of study design and
analysis, or the minimum individual unit that
manifest the effects of threatment(s) yet is
independent of other such units with respect
to the question.

Disebut juga dengan “replicate”

direpresentasikan dengan “n” di statistik
 Key to the Design of the Experiment is the Concept of REPLICATION

REPLICATON: The independent observation of a treatment

An Experimental Unit Provides a Replication of the level of a Factor if the level is

randomly assigned the the Experimental Unit and observed independently of
the other Experimental Units

Must make sure that Sub-samples are not considered to be Replications

September 2000 Department of Statistics

20
Kansas State University
 Kegunaan ulangan
• Kontrol terhadap terhadap random atau stochastic
error
– E.g., untested independent factors may otherwise
determine the outcome of the experiment
• Meningkatkan ketelitian hasil
• Meningkatkan kemampuan generalisasi hasil
percobaan
– If you test across many sites – you can safely generalize to
many others
 Replication versus Pseudoreplication
• It is important to avoid confusing replication
with pseudoreplication
 Experimental unit

Contoh: effect pemupukan terhadap

pertumbuhan pohon
 Experimental unit ?

+F -F +F -F
Experimental unit ?
+F

-F
 Ulangan Semu

Misidentifikasi dari skala unit

percobaan;

Mengasumsikan ada lebih banyak unit

percobaan (replikasi “n”) daripada
yang ada secara aktual
 When is this a
pseudoreplicated design?
+F

-F
Contoh 1.

Hypothesis: kelimpahan insekta lebih

tinggi pada danau dangkal daripada
danau yang dalam
Contoh 1.

Percobaan:

Sample untuk kemelimpahan insect

setiap 100 m sepanjang tepi danau
dangkal dan dalam

Danau dalam Danau dangkal

Contoh 2.

Apa masalahnya?

1. Spatial autocorrelation?
2. Sub sample?
 Major Types of Design
1. Experiments
2. Quasi-Experiment
3. Observational Study
 Experiments
• Also called manipulative experiments,
comparative experiments, or randomized
experiments
• Experiments consist of observing the system
of interest under controlled circumstances
• It is the ideal design
 Experiments
True experiments require:
a. Random allocation of treatments (including
control) to experimental units,
b. Replication of ecah treatments across
multiple experimental units
Ideally all confounding factors are controlled
directly through the design, adjusted for a
posteriori in the statistical analysis, or
removed through randomization.
Quasi-Experiments
In many setting in ecology, a true experiment is
not practical, due to feasibility or budget.
In this case, either randomization or replication
must be at least partially sacrified→ the
ability to make rigorous inference is
compromized.
 Randomization
Yes NO

Manipulating Experiment Impact study

YES
Replication

Assessment Study Impact Assessment

NO
 Contoh
Impact assessment or
BA-CI (before after/control impact)
(Stewart-Oaten et al., 1986)
“The impact of power plant on the abundance of a
Polychaete”
 description
• The site for a power plant not chosen
randomly, is called the impact site.
• A site close enough and similar enough to the
impact site to be influenced in a similar way
by potential disturbing variables is subjectively
selected to serve as a control site.
 Description
1. Although the impact and control sites were not chosen
randomly from a larger population, inference to a larger
population was not an objective of this study.
2. similarly, treatments were not assigned randomly because
the site for the power plant was chosen for its power
producing potential not for scientific reason.
3. Impact and control area were not assumed to be identical,
but the difference in abundance between the two sites was
assumed to have no trend before construction of power
plant.
4. given, that with just one impact and one control site the
investigator attempted to neutralize potential disturbing
variables associated with space (location) by adding time
(before and after construction) as another control.
 Contoh Kasus: Desain Riset

-anda seorang manajer hutan produksi yang memiliki

keunikan dan keragaman jenis satwa.
-anda harus membuat guideline pengelolaan hutan
tersebut.
-hutan tersebut dimanfaatkan kayunya dengan cara selektif
loging.
-perhatian konservasi; kekhawatiran pengaruh loging
terhadap keanekaragaman burung, ampibi dan mamalia
kecil.
- Tindakan manajemen apa? loging dilanjutkan atau
moratorium?
 Pertanyaan

Does selective logging significantly alter the

abundance and diversity of forest birds
within the production forest?
 Gambaran Hutan
Tiga tipe habitat:
1. Tropical wet forest
2. Cloud forest
3. Tropical dry forest

Lokasi yang dikotak menggambarkan

di situ dilakukan selektif loging (SL),
sedangkan areal yang lain tidak
dilakukan penebangan (UL), namun
dapat ditebang pada masa yang akan
datang sebagai bagian dari penelitian
atau mengikuti guideline
pengelolaan.
 Berbagai Desain Penelitian

1 evaluation unit pada tropical dry forest

1 evaluation unit pada cloud forest
1 evaluation unit pada cloud forest SL
1 evaluation unit pada cloud forest UL
6 evaluation unit di cloud forest (UL)
6 evaluation unit di tropical dry forest (SL)
6 evaluation unit random di cloud forest (UL)
6 evaluation unit random di tropical dry forest (SL)
Ada 12 evaluation units,
a. 6 diletakkan secara random pada UL untuk semua tipe hutan
b. 6 diletakkan secara random pada SL untuk semua tipe hutan
Ada 12 evaluation unit; dibagi menjadi 6 pasang, setiap pasangan letaknya
berdekatan dan mewakili SL dan UL. Pasangan tersebut mengcover seluruh area.