Assignment: 3

Name: Sajawal
Course instructor: DR. Faryal zaidi
SAP ID: 70060843
Course: Scientific Research and Research Methodology

Topic: Define and describe Hypothesis and Its Errors and Probabilities.
Hypothesis is an important activity of empirical research and evidence-based medicine. A well
worked up hypothesis is half the answer to the research question. For this, both knowledge of the
subject derived from extensive review of the literature and working knowledge of basic
statistical concepts are desirable. The present paper discusses the methods of working up a good
hypothesis and statistical concepts of hypothesis testing.

Hypothesis is an act in statistics whereby an analyst tests an assumption regarding a population

parameter. The methodology employed by the analyst depends on the nature of the data used and
the reason for the analysis.

Hypothesis is used to assess the plausibility of a hypothesis by using sample data. Such data may
come from a larger population, or from a data-generating process.

Four Steps of Hypothesis

All hypotheses are tested using a four-step process:

1. The first step is for the analyst to state the two hypotheses so that only one can be right.
2. The next step is to formulate an analysis plan, which outlines how the data will be
evaluated.
3. The third step is to carry out the plan and physically analyze the sample data.
4. The fourth and final step is to analyze the results and either reject the null hypothesis, or
state that the null hypothesis is plausible, given the data.

CHARACTERISTICS OF A GOOD HYPOTHESIS

A good hypothesis must be based on a good research question. It should be simple, specific and
stated in advance.
Hypothesis should be simple
A simple hypothesis contains one predictor and one outcome variable, e.g. Positive family
history of schizophrenia increases the risk of developing the condition in first-degree relatives.
Here the single predictor variable is positive family history of schizophrenia and the outcome
variable is schizophrenia. A complex hypothesis contains more than one predictor variable or
more than one outcome variable, e.g., a positive family history and stressful life events are
associated with an increased incidence of Alzheimer’s disease.

Hypothesis should be specific

A specific hypothesis leaves no ambiguity about the subjects and variables, or about how the test
of statistical significance will be applied. It uses concise operational definitions that summarize
the nature and source of the subjects and the approach to measuring variables (History of
medication with tranquilizers, as measured by review of medical store records and physicians’
prescriptions in the past year, is more common in patients who attempted suicides than in
controls hospitalized for other conditions).

Hypothesis should be stated in advance

The hypothesis must be stated in writing during the proposal state. This will help to keep the
research effort focused on the primary objective and create a stronger basis for interpreting the
study’s results as compared to a hypothesis that emerges as a result of inspecting the data.
TYPES OF HYPOTHESES

Null and alternative hypotheses

The null hypothesis states that there is no association between the predictor and outcome
variables in the population (There is no difference between tranquilizer habits of patients with
attempted suicides and those of age- and sex- matched “control” patients hospitalized for other
diagnoses). The null hypothesis is the formal basis for testing statistical significance

One- and two-tailed alternative hypotheses

A one-tailed (or one-sided) hypothesis specifies the direction of the association between the
predictor and outcome variables. The prediction that patients of attempted suicides will have a
higher rate of use of tranquilizers than control patients is a one-tailed hypothesis. A two-tailed
hypothesis states only that an association exists; it does not specify the direction. The prediction
that patients with attempted suicides will have a different rate of tranquilizer use either higher or
lower than control patients is a two-tailed hypothesis.

Errors and Probabilities

No hypothesis test is 100% certain. Because the test is based on probabilities, there is always a
chance of making an incorrect conclusion. When you do a hypothesis test, two types of errors are
possible: type I and type II. The risks of these two errors are inversely related and determined by
the level of significance and the power for the test. Therefore, you should determine which error
has more severe consequences for your situation before you define their risks.

Type I error

When the null hypothesis is true and you reject it, you make a type I error. The probability of
making a type I error is α, which is the level of significance you set for your hypothesis test. An
α of 0.05 indicates that you are willing to accept a 5% chance that you are wrong when you
reject the null hypothesis. To lower this risk, you must use a lower value for α. However, using a
lower value for alpha means that you will be less likely to detect a true difference if one really
exists.

Type II error

When the null hypothesis is false and you fail to reject it, you make a type II error. The
probability of making a type II error is β, which depends on the power of the test. You can
decrease your risk of committing a type II error by ensuring your test has enough power. You
can do this by ensuring your sample size is large enough to detect a practical difference when
one truly exists.

Or
A type I error (false-positive) occurs if an investigator rejects a null hypothesis that is actually
true in the population; a type II error (false-negative) occurs if the investigator fails to reject a
null hypothesis that is actually false in the population. Although type I and type II errors can
never be avoided entirely, the investigator can reduce their likelihood by increasing the sample
size (the larger the sample, the lesser is the likelihood that it will differ substantially from the
population).

False-positive and false-negative results can also occur because of bias (observer, instrument,
recall, etc.). (Errors due to bias, however, are not referred to as type I and type II errors.) Such
errors are troublesome, since they may be difficult to detect and cannot usually be quantified.

Probability is a recurring theme in medical practice. No doctor who returns home from a busy
day at the hospital is spared the nagging feeling that some of his diagnoses may turn out to be
wrong, or some of his treatments may not lead to the expected cure. Encountering the
unexpected is an occupational hazard in clinical practice. Doctors after some experience in their
profession reconcile to the fact that diagnosis and prognosis always have varying degrees of
uncertainty and at best can be stated as probable in a particular case.

Two types of probabilities

The statistical probability concept is so widely prevalent that almost everyone believes that
probability is a frequency. It is not, of course, an ordinary frequency which can be estimated by
simple observations, but it is the ideal or truth in the universe, which is reflected by the observed
frequency.

For example, when we want to determine the probability of obtaining an ace from a pack of
cards (which, let us assume has been tampered with by a dishonest gambler), we proceed by
drawing a card from the pack a large number of times, as we know in the long run, the observed
frequency will approach the true probability or truth in the universe. Mathematicians often state
that a probability is a long-run frequency, and a probability that is defined in this way is called
a frequential probability.