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Received March 28, 2020, accepted April 3, 2020, date of publication April 6, 2020, date of current version April 21, 2020.
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/ACCESS.2020.2986056
ABSTRACT The number of free parking spaces (FPSs) is highly dynamic and stochastic, calling for
a parking guidance model that enables the driver to find the right parking lot. This paper explores the
distribution of FPSs number in parking lots, predicts the number of FPSs, and proposes a parking guidance
model with a solving algorithm. Firstly, the number of FPSs from several parking lots was subjected to big
data analysis, revealing that the hourly number of FPSs obey similar trends on different weekdays. On this
basis, the data on the FPSs number of the parking lots were classified by hourly, weekly and holiday features.
Whereas the FPSs number obeys the normal distribution, a parking guidance model was established with the
most reliable path to forecast the number of FPSs. Then, the solving algorithm was proposed based on the
reliability boundary. Finally, the effectiveness of the model and algorithm was verified through simulation.
Compared with the actual data, the prediction accuracy of the model is more than 95%. The research results
shed new light on the development of parking guidance systems.
INDEX TERMS Parking guidance, prediction model, free parking spaces (FPSs), big data analysis.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
VOLUME 8, 2020 66609
C. Zhang et al.: FPS Prediction and Reliability Analysis Based on Big Data Analysis
FIGURE 4. Prediction results vs. actual results on FPSs number under FIGURE 5. Prediction results vs. actual results on reliability under given
given reliability. number of FPSs.
where, RNe ,C,θ,i is the probability that the FPSs number in the
i-th parking lot in the θ -th time period of day C is greater than
the expected threshold Ne ; ROI is the reliability of the most
reliable path from the vehicle location O to the i-th parking
lot; i is the reliable path from the vehicle location O to the
i-th parking lot.
Under the given departure time and expected travel time,
the reliability of the path ROI between the vehicle location O
to the i-th parking lot can be defined as:
FIGURE 6. Reliability of the most reliable path between the vehicle
location and three parking lots with different travel time thresholds.
ln (TO − δOI ) − MOI
Max ROI (x) = 8
σOI
From Figure 6 we can see that when the expected travel [14] A. Correa, G. Boquet, A. Morell, and J. L. Vicario, ‘‘Autonomous car
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China, in 1978. He is currently an Associate Pro-
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