Palle Thoft-Christensen

Michael 1. Baker

Structural
Reliability Theory
and Its Applications
With 107 Figures

Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York 1982

 PALLE THOFT-CHRISTENSEN, Professor, Ph. D.
Institute of Building Technology
and Structural Engineering
Aalborg University Centre
Aalborg, Denmark

MICHAEL J. BAKER, B.Sc. (Eng)

Department of Civil Engineering
Imperial College of Science and Technology
London, England

Library of Congr~S5 ('ataloging In Publication DatH

Thoft-Christensen, Falle.
Structural relialxillty theory and its applica-
tions.
Includes lxi bliograIilies and index.
1. Structural stability. 2. Reliability
(Engineering) 1. Baker, Michael J. (Michael John),
1940- . II. Title.
TA656.5.T47 1982 624.1 1 71 82-10277
ISBN-13:978-3-642-68699-3(U.S.)

ISBN -13:978-3-642-68699-3 e- ISBN -13 :978-3-642-68697-9

DOl: 10.1007/978-3-642-68697-9

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Under §54 of the German Copyright Law where copies are made for other than private use, afee is payable to
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© Springer-Verlag Berlin, Heidelberg 1982
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1982

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specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore
free for general use.

206113020 - 543210
PREFACE

Structural reliability theory is concerned with the rational treatment of uncertainties in struc-
tural engineering and with the methods for assessing the safety and serviceability of civil en-
gineering and other structures. It is a subject which has grown rapidly during the last decade
and has evolved from being a topic for academic research to a set of well-developed or develop-
ing methodologies with a wide range of practical applications.
Uncertainties exist in most areas of civil and structural engineeri'1.g and rational design decisions
cannot be made without modelling them and taking them into account. Many structural en-
gineers are shielded from having to think about such problems, at least when designing simple
structures, because of the prescriptive and essentially deterministic nature of most codes of
practice. This is an undesirable situation. Most loads and other structural design parameters are
rarely known with certainty and should be regarded as random variables or stochastic processes,
even if in design calculations they are eventually treated as deterministic. Some problems such
as the analysis of load combinations cannot even be formulated without recourse to probabilistic
reasoning.
There is a need for all structural engineers to develop an understanding of structural reliability
theory and for this to be applied in design and construction, either indirectly through codes or
by direct application in the case of special structures having large failure consequences, the aim
in both cases being to achieve economy together with an appropriate degree of safety. The sub-
ject is now sufficiently well developed for it to be included as a formal part of the training of
all civil and structural engineers, both at undergraduate and post-graduate levels. Courses on
structural safety have been given at some universities for a number of years.
In writing this book we have tried to bring together under one cover the major components
of structural reliability theory with the aim of making it possible for a newcomer to see and
VI

study the subject as a whole. The book should be of value to those with no prior knowledge
of reliability theory, but it should also be of interest to those engineers involved in the de-
velopment of structural and loading codes and to those concerned with the safety assessment
of complex structures. The book does not try to cover all aspects of structural safety and no
attempt is made, for example, to discuss structural failures except in general statistical terms.
It was the intention to make this book moderately self-contained and for this reason chapter
2 is devoted to the essential fundamentals of probability theory. However, readers who have
had no training in this branch of mathematics would be well advised to study a more general
text in addition. Topics such as the statistical theory of extremes, methods of parameter esti-
mation and stochastic process theory are introduced in later chapters as and when they are re-
quired. The main core of the book is devoted to the so-called level 2 methods of analysis which
have provided the key to fast computational procedures for structural reliability calculations.
Other chapters cover the reliability of structural systems, load combinations, gross errors and
some major areas of application.
The work is set out in the form of a textbook with a number of examples and simple exer-
cises. The purpose of these is to illustrate the important principles and methods and to extend
the scope of the main text with economy of space. The reader is warned against a too literal in-
terpretation of some of the simple examples as these were not included to provide insight into
particular practical problems. In some examples, the parameters of the probability distributions
used in the calculations have been chosen quite arbitrarily or in such a way as to demonstrate
the calculation procedure with maximum effect. This does not mean that the practical aspects
of structural reliability theory have been overlooked - indeed, the theory would be of little
value if it could not be applied. Chapter 11, on the application of reliability theory to the de-
velopment of level 1 codes, attempts to address many of the practical problems faced by code
writers in the selection of partial coefficients (partial factors); and in chapter 3, the modelling
of load and resistance variables has been approached with applications strongly in mind. How-
ever, a complete book would be required to cover this subject in depth. Chapter 12 on off-
shore structures should be of interest to those working in this field.
In compiling the bibliography our approach has been to list only a selection of the more im-
portant works in each subject area, along with other works to which specific reference is made.
Whilst many important contributions to the literature are thus omitted, it is considered that
this selective approach will be of more help to the new reader.
We should like to acknowledge the major contributions to the field of structural reliability
theory that have been made by a relatively small number of people, mainly during the last 10
to 15 years, and without which this book would not have been possible. The subject has bene-
fitted from a large degree of international co-operation which has been stimulated by various
bodies - in particular, the Joint Committee on Structural Safety under the chairmanship of
J. Ferry Borges. The responsibility for this book must, however, rest with the authors and we
should be pleased to receive notification of corrections or omissions of any nature.
 VII

Thanks are due to our respective colleagues in Aalborg and London for their helpful comments
and contributions and in particular to Mrs. Kirsten Aakj<er and Mrs. Norma Hornung who
have undertaken the type-setting and drawing of figures, respectively, with such skill and
efficiency.
We conclude with some words of caution. Structural reliability theory should not be thought
of as the solution to all safety problems or as a procedure which can be applied in a mechanical
fashion. In the right hands it is a powerful tool to aid decision making in matters of structural
safety, but like other tools it can be misused. It should not be thought of as an alternative to
more traditional methods of safety analysis, because all the information that is currently used
in other approaches can and should be incorporated within a reliability analysis. On occasions
the theory may give results which seem to contradict »experience». In this case, either »experi-
ence» will be found to have been incorrectly interpreted or some part of the reliability analysis
will be at fault, generally the modelling. The resolution of these real or apparent contradictions
will often provide considerable insight into the nature of the problem being examined, which can
only be of benefit.

March, 1982

Palle Thoft-Christensen Michael J. Baker

Institute of Building Technology Department of Civil Engineering
and Structural Engineering Imperial College of Science and Technology
Aalborg University Centre London, England
Aalborg, Denmark
 IX

CONTENTS

1. THE TREATMENT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN STRUCTURAL ENGINEERING.. .. 1

1.1 INTRODUCTION................................................ 1
1.1.1 Current risk levels, 2
1.1.2 Structural codes, 3
1.2 UNCERTAINTy................................................. 4
1.2.1 General, 4
1.2.2 Basic variables, 5
1.2.3 Types of uncertainty, 6
1.3 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY ANALYSIS AND SAFETY CHECKING...... 7
1.3.1 Structural reliability, 8
1.3.2 Methods of safety checking, 10
BIBLIOGRAPHY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 11

2. FUNDAMENTALS OF PROBABILITY THEORY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 13

2.1 INTRODUCTION................................................ 13
2.2 SAMPLE SPACE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 13
2.3 AXIOMS AND THEOREMS OF PROBABILITY THEORY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 15
2.4 RANDOM VARIABLES. . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 19
2.5 MOMENTS..................................................... 22
2.6 UNIVARIATE DISTRIBUTIONS. . . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 25
2.7 RANDOM VECTORS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 28
2.8 CONDITIONAL DISTRIBUTIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 31
2.9 FUNCTIONS OF RANDOM VARIABLES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 32
BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 35

3. PROBABILISTIC MODELS FOR LOADS AND RESISTANCE VARIABLES. . . . .. 37

3.1 INTRODUCTION................................................ 37
3.2 STATISTICAL THEORY OF EXTREMES. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 37
3.2.1 Derivation of the cumulative distribution of the ith smallest value of
n identically distributed independent random variables X j , 38
3.2.2 Normal extremes, 39
3.3 ASYMPTOTIC EXTREME-VALUE DISTRIBUTIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 40
3.3.1 Type I extreme-value distributions (Gumbel distributions), 40
3.3.2 Type II extreme-value distributions, 42
3.3.3 Type III extreme-value distributions, 42
x

3.4 MODELLING OF RESISTANCE VARIABLES - MODEL SELECTION ...... , 44

3.4.1 General remarks, 44
3.4.2 Choice of distributions for resistance variables, 52
3.5 MODELLING OF LOAD VARIABLES - MODEL SELECTION. . . . . . . . . . . .. 54
3.5.1 General remarks, 54
3.5.2 Choice of distributions of loads and other actions, 58
3.6 ESTIMATION OF DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS. .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. .. 59
3.6.1 Techniques for parameter estimation, 59
3.6.2 Model verification, 63
3.7 INCLUSION OF STATISTICAL UNCERTAINTY .......... , . . . . . . .. .. .. 63
BIBLIOG RAPHY ................................................... , 64

4. FUNDAMENTALS OF STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY THEORY ... _ .......... , 67

4.1 INTRODUCTION................................................ 67
4.2 ELEMENTS OF CLASSICAL RELIABILITY THEORY.. . . . . . . .. . . . . .. .. 67
4.3 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY ANALYSIS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 70
4.3.1 General,70
4.3.2 The fundamental case, 71
4.3.3 Problems reducing to the fundamental case, 75
4.3.4 Treatment of a single time-varying load, 77
4.3.5 The general case, 77
4.3.6 Monte-Carlo methods, 79
BIBLIOGRAPHY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 80

5. LEVEL 2 METHODS _ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 81
5.1 INTRODUCTION................................................ 81
5.2 BASIC VARIABLES AND F AlLURE SURFACES ...................... , 81
5.3 RELIABILITY INDEX FOR LINEAR FAILURE FUNCTIONS AND NOR-
MAL BASIC VARIABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 83
5.4 HASOFER AND LIND'S RELIABILITY INDEX.. . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. 88
BIBLIOGRAPHY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 93

6. EXTENDED LEVEL 2 METHODS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 95

6.1 INTRODUCTION................................................ 95
6.2 CONCEPT OF CORRELATION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 96
6.3 CORRELATED BASIC VARIABLES ................................. 101
6.4 NON-NORMAL BASIC VARIABLES ................................. 108
BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................... 110
 XI

7. RELIABILITY OF STRUCTURAL SYSTEMS ............................. 113

7.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................... 113

7.2 PERFECTLY BRITTLE AND PERFECTLY DUCTILE ELEMENTS ........ 114
7.3 FUNDAMENTAL SySTEMS ...................................... 115
7.4 SYSTEMS WITH EQUALLY CORRELATED ELEMENTS ............... 122
BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................. 127

8. RELIABILITY BOUNDS FOR STRUCTURAL SYSTEMS ................... 129

8.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................... 129

8.2 SIMPLE BOUNDS ............................................... 130
8.3 DITLEVSEN BOUNDS ........................................... 133
8.4 PARALLEL SYSTEMS WITH UNEQUALLY CORRELATED ELEMENTS .. 134
8.5 SERIES SYSTEMS WITH UNEQUALLY CORRELATED ELEMENTS ...... 136
BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................. 143

9. INTRODUCTION TO STOCHASTIC PROCESS THEORY AND ITS USES ....... 145

9.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................... 145

9.2 STOCHASTIC PROCESSES ....................................... 145
9.3 GAUSSIAN PROCESSES ......................................... 148
9.4 BARRIER CROSSING PROBLEM .................................. 150
9.5 PEAK DISTRIBUTION ........................................... 156
BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................. 159

10. LOAD COMBINATIONS ............................................. 161

10.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................... 161

10.2 THE LOAD COMBINATION PROBLEM ................. ' ............ 162
10.3 THE FERRY BORGES·CASTANHETA LOAD MODEL ................. 166
10.4 COMBINATION RULES .......................................... 168
BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................... 175

11. APPLICATIONS TO STRUCTURAL CODES .............................. 177

11.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................... 177

11.2 STRUCTURAL SAFETY AND LEVEL 1 CODES ...................... 178
XII

11.3 RECOMMENDED SAFETY FORMATS FOR LEVEL 1 CODES. . . . . . . . . .. 180

11.3.1 Limit state functions and checking equations, 180
11.3.2 Characteristic values of basic variables, 182
11.3.3 Treatment of geometrical variables, 183
11.3.4 Treatment of material properties, 185
11.3.5 Treatment of loads and other actions, 185
11.4 METHODS FOR THE EVALUATION OF PARTIAL COEFFICIENTS ...... 188
11.4.1 Relationship of partial coefficients to level 2 design point, 188
11.4.2 Approximate direct method for the evaluation of partial coeffi-
cients,190
11.4.3 General method for the evaluation of partial coefficients, 194
11.5 AN EXAMPLE OF PROBABILISTIC CODE CALIBRATION .......... , .. 196
11.5.1 Aims of calibration, 196
11.5.2 Results of calibration, 198
BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................... 201

12. APPLICATIONS TO FIXED OFFSHORE STRUCTURES .................... 203

12.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................... 203

12.2 MODELLING THE RESPONSE OF JACKET STRUCTURES FOR RELIA-
BILITY ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 203
12.2.1 Sea-state model, 207
12.2.2 Wave model, 215
12.2.3 Loading model, 217
12.2.4 Natural frequency model, 219
12.2.5 Evaluation of structural response, 219
12.2.6 Evaluation of peak response, 220
12.2.7 Other models, 222
12.3 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR IMPORTANT LOADING VARI-
ABLES ....................................................... 223
12.3.1 Wind speed, 223
12.3.2 Morison's coefficients, 225
12.4 METHODS OF RELIABILITY ANALYSIS ........................... 226
12.4.1 General, 226
12.4.2 Level 2 method, 227
12.5 SOME RESULTS FROM THE STUDY OF A JACKET STRUCTURE ....... 232
BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................... 234

13. RELIABILITY THEORY AND QUALITY ASSURANCE .................... 239

13.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................... 239

13.2 GROSS ERRORS ............................................... 239
13.2.1 General, 239
13.2.2 Classification of gross errors, 241
 XIII

13.3 INTERACTION OF RELIABILITY AND QUALITY ASSURANCE ........ 243

13.3.1 General,243
13.3.2 The effect of gross errors on the choice of partial coefficients, 244 ...... .
13.4 QUALITY ASSURANCE ......................................... 247
BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................... 247

APPENDIX A. RANDOM NUMBER GENERATORS ........................... 249

1. GENERAL ................................................... , 249
2. UNIFORM RANDOM NUMBER GENERATORS ...................... 249
3. MULTIPLICATIVE CONGRUENCE METHOD ........................ 250
4. GENERATION OF RANDOM DEVIATES WITH A SPECIFIED PROB-
ABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION Fx ........................... 251
5. SPECIAL CASES: GENERATION OF RANDOM DEVIATES HAVING
NORMAL AND LOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS ..................... 252
BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 253

APPENDIX B. SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF WAVE FORCES .................... 255

1. INTRODUCTION ............................................... 255
2. GENERAL EQUATIONS OF MOTION .............................. 255
3. MODAL ANALYSIS .......................... , .................. 257
4. SOLUTION STRATEGY ......................................... 258
5. MULTIPLE PILES .............................................. 261
6. COMPUTATIONAL PROCEDURE .................................. 261
BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................... 261

INDEX .............................................................. 263