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notebook April 09, 2021
probability
probability of an event=
Consider an experiment of rolling a sixsided die. What is the
probability of the event 'an even number of spots appear face up'?
The possible outcomes are: 1, 2 3, 4, 5 or 6 spots. There are three favorable outcomes (a two, a four, and a six) in
the collection of six equally likely possible outcomes.
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Discrete
Race, Gender, Blood group, cases with dichotomous outcomes such as male female
Continuous
Birth weight, Blood pressure, Waiting time for a patient, Height, Age
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The mean or expected value, of a discrete random variable x is
The variance of a discrete random variable x is
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1. A fixed number of trials
2. Each trial is independent of the others.
3. There are only two outcomes
4. The probability of each outcome remains constant from trial to trial.
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Example : A certain drug is known to cause a side effect 20% of the time
and if four patients are given this drug, what is the probability that three
patients experience the side effect?
Solution
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Example : A hospital administrator has been studying daily emergency
admissions over a period of several months and has found that admissions have
averaged 0.2 per day. He is now interested in finding the probability that two
emergency admissions will occur on a particular day.
solution
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Example : It is thought that, on an average, 0.01% of the workforce in a
particular industry will suffer from an acute form of industrial disease. Hot
Flush Inc., employs a workforce of 2,000 men, and the senior medical
adviser of the company has stated that if three people in the workforce
suffer from the disease, the cases should be treated as a sign that there are
unacceptable health hazards. Calculate the probability that three or more
men in the workforce will catch the disease.
solution
= 1[0.8187+0.1637+0.0164]=0.0012
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A random variable X with mean and variance is normally distributed if its
probability density function is given by
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1 0
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Example: The amount of time it takes to treat a patient is normally
distributed, with a mean of 50 minutes and a standard deviation of 10
minutes. What is the probability that a patient is treated in a time between
45 and 60 minutes?
solution
If X denotes the treatment time for a patient
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Example:
If the total cholesterol values for a certain population are approximately
normally distributed with a mean of 200 mg/100 mL and a standard
deviation of 20 mg/100 mL, find the probability that an individual picked
at random from this population will have a cholesterol value greater than
240 mg/100 mL
solution
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Example:
If Z is a standard normal random variable, find the value z for which:
a) the area between 0 and z is 0.3729
b) the area to the right of z is 0.7123
c) the area to the left of z is 0.1736
d) the area to the left of z is 0.7673
e) the area to the right of z is 0.1841
f) the area between –z and z is 0.663
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