Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Key Findings
• Acquisitions of domestic firms by foreign investors have doubled as a share of FDI in developing
countries over the past 10 years. The acquired firms in developing countries can be diverse. They can
be in any sector but more commonly in activities that rely on land and established distribution net-
works, as well as in sectors where entry is highly regulated. For developing countries, income level
and market size are strong predictors of the intensity of “brownfield” investment.
• This report explores differences in the performance and development impact of brownfield FDI
relative to greenfield FDI and domestically owned firms by analyzing a unique set of industrial
censuses from six developing countries: China, Côte d’Ivoire, Indonesia, Moldova, Serbia, and Viet-
nam. Although FDI’s benefits to economic development have been well studied using aggregate sta-
tistics and country case studies, this report brings new evidence on the contributions of brownfield
FDI to developing countries’ competitiveness, productivity, and labor markets.
• Results show that firms acquired by multinational enterprises not only perform better than the
average domestic firm at the time of the acquisition but also improve their performance after acqui-
sition faster than local firms along some of the key dimensions that matter for development. For
example, over the first five years of a firm’s operation, a brownfield affiliate is 70–100 percent more
likely to export than a domestic firm. Wages in foreign take-overs at the end of the first five years of
operations are 40–50 percent higher than in domestic firms.
• Furthermore, contrary to conventional belief about the potential job-destroying effects of for-
eign mergers and acquisitions, employment in newly acquired firms tends to grow faster in most
countries than employment in domestic firms with similar characteristics. Specifically, two years
after acquisition, the average employment in brownfield affiliates expands by approximately 4 per-
cent, compared with 1.5 percent in domestic firms with similar characteristics. The firms’ asset
value after the acquisition follows a similar path. In addition, wages in brownfield affiliates tend to
increase, compared with relatively stagnant wages in the domestic firms. The experience of the six
countries analyzed in this study suggests that foreign acquisitions could be adding more value in
markets at the lower end of the development spectrum—that is, in countries where most FDI still
takes place through greenfield investment.
• A policy framework that is supportive of brownfield investment should emphasize (a) streamlin-
ing investment screening mechanisms and approval processes, (b) increasing the effectiveness of
competition policies to reduce the administrative burden of merger and acquisition controls, and
(c) enhancing cooperation between competition and investment authorities. Although legal safe-
guards to protect the public interest ought to be preserved, an alleviation of the administrative bur-
den, unpredictability, cost, and time involved in brownfield investment would facilitate the process
greatly. Differential treatment of brownfield multinationals with respect to investment incentives
should also be avoided.
Introduction
Acquisitions of domestic firms by foreign modest effects on aggregate growth (Harms
investors have doubled as a share of total and Meon 2018; Wang and Wong 2009).
foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing Narratives likening cross-border mergers and
countries over the past 10 years. In the past, acquisitions (M&A) to “bad cholesterol” or
foreign investors in developing countries qualifying them as “useless” rely on this evi-
would typically establish new facilities in dence to play down their contribution (Beattie
unused “green fields” rather than investing 2014; Harms and Meon 2018). These critiques
in established companies in potentially con- are not new. Following the 1990s surge of
taminated “brown fields,” as the analogy acquisitions of state-owned enterprises, the
goes. That is still how most FDI takes place United Nations Conference on Trade and
outside the industrialized world. Development (UNCTAD) noted “concerns in
The balance between the two modes of political discussions and the media that foreign
entry, however, is shifting toward more brown- acquisitions as a mode of entry are less benefi-
field investment. Upper- and lower-middle- cial for economic development, if not posi-
income countries lead the way (figure 2.1). The tively harmful” (UNCTAD 2000).
trend is also discernible in outward investment For the development community, one
by upper- and lower-middle-income countries complicating factor in discerning the effect
to other developing countries and, notably, to of brownfield investment is that most of the
high-income economies. evidence comes from high-income coun-
The rise of foreign acquisitions brings ten- tries, where the impact of investment can
sions in the investment landscape. The United be different in scope and depth than in
States and the European Union have enacted developing countries. In addition, much of
strict screenings of foreign acquisitions in what captures the public eye tends to focus
response to perceived challenges to national on macroeconomic growth, overlooking
security. Cases of investment withdrawals— the shift of attention to development out-
either rejected or withdrawn over security comes at the level of firms, the jobs they
concerns—tripled in 2018 alone, often receiv- create, or the wages they offer. Little is
ing high publicity (UNCTAD 2019). China known about acquired firms in developing
and South Africa have also changed their FDI countries1—what they look like, how they
screening mechanisms in recent years for the evolve, and whether conventional narra-
same reasons. Although tensions arise pri- tives do justice to their contribution in
marily over assets in high-income and large development terms.
emerging economies, they entail a risk of This study uses a unique set of industrial
shaping narratives, policy precedents, and censuses from six developing countries
responses beyond their own jurisdictions. (China, Côte d’Ivoire, Indonesia, Moldova,
But how beneficial is brownfield FDI for Serbia, and Vietnam) to shed additional light
developing countries? Opinions vary. on these three questions. The discussion that
Greenfield FDI adds new elements to the follows shows that acquired firms in develop-
economy: new facilities, new jobs, and addi- ing countries can be diverse. They can be in
tional production capacity. Brownfield invest- any sector but are more common in activities
ment, by contrast, transforms existing that rely on land and established distribution
production. Any positive effect would there- networks, as well as in sectors where entry is
fore tend to materialize over longer time highly regulated.
frames and with varying intensity. Motivations matter: firm acquisitions are
That brownfield investment represents rents strongly associated with market-seeking and
to existing assets is the prevailing explanation asset-seeking FDI. For developing countries,
offered by various empirical studies for the income and the size of the market are strong
57
5 8 Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2019/2020
FIGURE 2.1 Brownfield Investment Rose as a Share of Total FDI in brownfield investment takes place more fre-
Developing Countries, 2010–17 quently, such as agriculture or services.
60 Governments have various means to foster
the potential of brownfield ventures in these
contexts. Improving the predictability of
Share of brownfield FDI in total FDI (%)
50
screening mechanisms; strengthening competi-
tion enforcement; ensuring equal applicability
40
of incentives such as tax credits, preferential
rates, or subsidies; and facilitating the partici-
30
pation of foreign investors in development of
firms can go a long way in that direction.
20
Although legal safeguards to protect the public
interest ought to be preserved, an alleviation of
10
the administrative burden, unpredictability,
cost, and time involved in the process would
0 facilitate brownfield investment greatly.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
The rest of the chapter is organized as fol-
Low income Lower middle income
lows: The Choice between Brownfield and
Upper middle income High income
Greenfield FDI reviews existing knowledge
Source: World Bank, based on 2019 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development on brownfield FDI as the starting point for
(UNCTAD) Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) database, http://www.unctad.org/fdistatistics.
Note: The trend is illustrated using a two-year moving average. All country income categories use the investigation. Characteristics of Markets
2017 World Bank-defined classifications; “developing” countries refers collectively to low- and Affecting Brownfield FDI describes countries
middle-income countries. FDI = foreign direct investment.
and sectors where brownfield investment
predictors of the intensity in which acquisi- grows more rapidly. Differences between
tions take place. And while there is a sorting Brownfield Affiliates and Other Firms delves
of average outcomes between the three into the firm-level outcomes, growth, and
groups—greenfield affiliates doing better than transformation paths of firms taken over by
brownfield affiliates, and the latter doing bet- foreign investors. Policy Considerations for
ter than domestic firms—brownfield affiliates Brownfield FDI explores policy options
are shown to develop significant advantages for countries to foster their development
over domestic firms, and those advantages are potential.
consolidated in the first five years of their
operations. Steeper transformation paths of
domestic firms taken over by foreign investors The Choice between Brownfield
highlight important contributions of brown- and Greenfield FDI
field FDI to some key outcomes that matter
for development. There are two main ways for a foreign inves-
Although more evidence would be neces- tor to enter a market: either set up a new
sary to establish general conclusions, the firm or acquire existing facilities (box 2.1).
experience of the six countries analyzed in The choice between the two depends natu-
this study suggests that foreign acquisitions rally on which yields the greatest return. The
could be adding more value in markets at the benefits and costs differ substantially by
lower end of the development spectrum—that mode of entry.
is, in countries where most FDI still takes The value of a firm’s assets is the prime
place through greenfield investment. This driver of brownfield investment. Access to a
study’s findings could therefore be more rele- successful firm’s technology, machinery, or
vant for rapidly growing economies where the brand name represents a future stream of rev-
share of foreign acquisitions is rising as well enues to the acquirer, especially when those
as for investment into sectors in which assets yield lower returns domestically than
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BOX 2.1
Conceptual Overlaps between Mergers, Acquisitions, and Brownfield FDI
“Mergers and acquisitions” (M&A) is a general term as (a) horizontal: between firms that produce and
used to describe the consolidation of companies or sell the same products—that is, between competing
assets through various types of financial transactions. firms; (b) vertical: between firms operating at dif-
The terms “merger” and “acquisition” are often used ferent stages of the value chain; or (c) conglomerate:
interchangeably, although they have slightly different between firms in unrelated businesses.
meanings. “Brownfield foreign direct investment (FDI)” is a
In an acquisition, a company purchases another broader term for any purchase by a foreign entity of
entity, partially or entirely, and establishes itself as assets that corresponds to more than 10 percent of the
a new owner. From a legal point of view, the target total assets of a target company, which is the thresh-
company does not cease to exist. In other words, old for a foreign investment to be considered direct
acquisitions involve the purchase of an entity’s assets (FDI) according to the International Monetary Fund
without a change in market structure. (IMF) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation
In a merger, on the other hand, one or several enti- and Development (OECD).
ties involved cease to exist, and a new entity may be Ownership of a 10 percent share does not necessar-
created; thus there is a change in market structure. ily grant control over the firm. The investor’s ability
In the case of public firms, the boards of directors of to make independent decisions would require a major-
the two companies approve the combination of their ity share, although shareholders can significantly
assets and seek shareholders’ approval. If the purchase influence the firm strategies and managerial decisions
of assets takes place without the consent of the board at lower thresholds, generally over 30 percent. The
or shareholders of the target company, the operation purchase can be friendly or unfriendly and result in
is called a “hostile take-over.” A hostile take-over can various combinations of outcomes in terms of creat-
also result in a merger, whereby companies’ stocks are ing a new legal entity, including a simple acquisition
surrendered, and new company stock is issued in its or a merger. Joint ventures do not fall under the cat-
place. egory of brownfield foreign investment because they
Depending on the activities exercised by the refer to the establishment of new facilities—greenfield
buyer and seller, M&A can further be classified investment—involving a local and a foreign entity.
in international markets. The foundation of target firm, the larger the valuation gains rela-
the decision to acquire lies in the investor’s tive to operational synergies.
ability to raise the value of the assets, which These sources of surplus can become a
often involves a substantial but lower relatively more important motive for brown-
commitment of resources than setting up a field investment during financial crises—a
subsidiary from scratch. Partly for this situation often referred to as “fire-sale FDI,”
reason, brownfield FDI seems to attract less coined by Paul Krugman to describe the
productive investors than greenfield invest- surge in foreign acquisitions of Asian firms
ment, on average.2 during the 1997–98 financial crisis (Krugman
Fundamentally, there can be two sources 2000). Indeed, a crisis is associated with a
of surplus from foreign acquisitions: (a) the 30 percent increase in the probability of a
efficiency gains due to operational synergies, foreign acquisition of a typical target relative
and (b) the valuation gains associated with to the noncrisis average (Alquist, Mukherjee,
the relaxation of the target firm’s liquidity and Tesar 2016). But more generally, valua-
constraints. The more credit constrained the tion gains appear to explain an important
6 0 Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2019/2020
share of variation in cross-country mergers and consumers, and greater costs in setting up
and acquisitions (M&A): firms in countries new facilities. Sectors such as real estate, finan-
whose stock market has increased in value, cial services, or pharmaceuticals are examples
whose currency has recently appreciated, (Davies, Desbordes, and Ray 2018). The high
and that have a relatively high market-to- cost of setting up a local supply network in a
book value tend to be purchasers, while vertically integrated market with strong back-
firms from weaker-performing economies ward linkages also favors cross-border acqui-
tend to be targets (Erel, Liao, and Weisbach sition relative to greenfield investment (Milliou
2011). and Pavlou 2014). In high-income countries,
The value of the acquired assets is always the location, geography, and cultural barriers,
assessed against the purpose of the invest- together with tariff rates applied on
ment. If the main objective is to sell in inputs from the origin country, are other fac-
the domestic market—a “market-seeking” tors affecting the attractiveness of acquisitions
investment—then acquiring a company that (Davies, Desbordes, and Ray 2018; di
is already operating is a common way to Giovanni 2005; Roberto 2004).
gain access. Market intelligence is part of that Overall, a variety of factors explain the
advantage: existing firms know the demand decision to acquire rather than set up a new
and know the risks, so the investor does not venture: the particularities of the sector and
have to start at the bottom of the learning the location, the motivation, the level of con-
curve. Complementarity between acquired trol over intellectual property, the macroeco-
assets and foreign owners’ tangible and intan- nomic environment, restrictions to alternative
gible assets is another factor that often tips modes such as costly procedures for construc-
the balance in favor of brownfield FDI tion permits, and the length of the commit-
(Balsvik and Haller 2010; Curran, Lv, and ment wished by the investor.
Francesa Spigarelli 2017). In all cases, the
average domestic firm in a host country Impacts of FDI on Acquired Firms and
would rarely combine all these qualities, so Host Economies
foreign investors “cherry pick” the more suc-
cessful, productive, and profitable ones that What is perhaps more critical from a develop-
suit their plans (Almeida 2007; Balsvik and ment standpoint, however, is the question of
Haller 2010; Bertrand et al. 2012; Guadalupe, the impact of foreign take-overs on acquired
Kuzmina, and Thomas 2012). firms. Employment tops the list of concerns.
There are reasons why investors may pre- In developed economies, both job losses and
fer to set up a new venture rather than acquire gains have been documented in acquired
an existing firm. Control over precious intel- firms over time. In developing economies,
lectual property, operations, and management there are fewer records of effects of acquisi-
would justify that preference. To secure their tions on employment, but they are generally
property, investors are often willing to bear positive.3 These findings are consistent with
higher costs of construction and navigate a the findings that foreign investment in exist-
host country’s regulatory system and tax ing firms improves productivity (Bircan 2019;
structure, in what consists overall in a longer- Conyon et al. 2002; Hale and Xu 2016;
term commitment to the market and host Lichtenberg and Siegel 2000; Maksimovic
country. and Phillips 2001; Maksimovic, Phillips, and
The activity of the firm itself matters in the Prabhala 2008; Schoar 2002), which tends to
decision to build or buy. Acquisitions do not be associated with larger size. Skill and
make equal sense in all sectors of economic knowledge transfers, as well as increased
activity; they can be more beneficial for the labor efficiency are the main channels through
investor in markets where there is higher con- which improvements happen. And productiv-
tractual intensity, higher informational asym- ity improvements in turn lead gradually to
metries among firms as well as between firms better wages.
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Positive valuation gains are also reported A distinct feature of brownfield investment
for the acquiring firm when it buys a majority is also that it can save jobs and revenue rather
stake in an enterprise in a developing country than create new ones, by restructuring com-
(Chari, Ouimet, and Tesar 2010). The size of panies that would otherwise fail to sustain
the stock price increase for the buyer is more operations (Grzegorz 2014). And although
pronounced when the contracting environ- little has been written on the evolution of
ment is weak and in industries with high asset domestic linkages of foreign take-overs in
intangibility. broader areas like revenue and taxes, there is
When it comes to the contribution of for- agreement that, unless they transfer their
eign take-overs to the growth of the host entire profit to the parent company, brown-
economy as whole, the prevailing view is field affiliates make a significant contribution
that the growth impact of greenfield invest- to the host economy (Bandick and Karpaty
ment is stronger than that of acquisitions 2007; Beattie 2014).
(Calderón, Loayza, and Servén 2004). The Feedback loops whereby brownfield
commitment involved in greenfield ventures investment induces more greenfield invest-
also makes their impact more lasting ment by reducing informational asymme-
(Bandick and Karpaty 2007; Harms and tries, and greenfield investment induces
Meon 2018). Greenfield ventures not only more brownfield investment, have been
raise the production capacity and create jobs studied less and have shown mixed results.
but also intensify competition by increasing In high-income countries, the limited evi-
the number of suppliers, which adds to their dence suggests that foreign acquisitions are
appeal (Burger and Ianchovichina 2017; associated with more greenfield FDI over
Claeys and Hainz 2007). time, while the reverse has been observed in
Cross-border acquisitions, by contrast, developing countries: greenfield investment
keep the number of market players is associated with more brownfield invest-
unchanged. Their effects on market structure ment over time (Calderón, Loayza, and
thus are often thought to be neutral, if not Servén 2004).
negative, which is a recurring concern when
foreign investors enter by this mode (OECD
2012). In developing countries in particular, Characteristics of Markets
newly acquired firms can in principle capital-
Attracting Brownfield FDI
ize on advantages associated with foreign
ownership and concentrate market power The decision to set up a firm or acquire
more easily where competition enforcement is one is driven by multiple factors. How
ineffective. Evidence on the general validity of does a country’s level of development
that effect across countries and contexts influence that decision? Stronger institu-
remains limited. tions associated with development enable
In the same way that greenfield investment more effective protection of investors’
transforms markets, brownfield investment intellectual property and more reliable
can also bring about job creation, innovation, contractual arrangements, both of which
and competition, but it takes longer for that make brownfield investment more appeal-
impact to materialize as the acquired firms ing. A m arket’s level of development,
gradually improve their position in the host moreover, reflects the attractiveness of
market. Recent evidence from Turkey, for acquisition targets—the presence of suc-
example, indicates that foreign acquisitions cessful firms that require less time and
increase physical productivity in acquired effort to bring returns—as well as struc-
firms while lowering competitor prices tural shifts to services in which brown-
(Bircan 2019). This finding suggests that their field affiliates are more common. But is
procompetitive effects may have been under- the relationship between share of acquisi-
estimated to date. tions and level of development linear, and
6 2 Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2019/2020
which sectors and firms are more likely to investment and its relative intensity. Of the
receive foreign investment in developing US$313 billion of brownfield investment in
countries? developing countries between 2014 and 2017,
Macroeconomic investment data by three-quarters consisted of acquisitions of
mode of entry (aggregated from commercial assets in upper-middle-income countries. The
sources) and firm-level microdata from more developed among developing countries
industrial censuses in six developing coun- also tend to receive higher shares of brown-
tries—China, Côte d’Ivoire, Indonesia, field investment in total foreign investment
Moldova, Serbia, and Vietnam—employed (figure 2.2).
in this study yield a wealth of insights. A Regional concentration is also evident
few caveats are in order, however. The data- because of, or perhaps in addition to, income.
sets have imperfections: in all cases they Latin American economies such as Argentina,
include some transactions that do not Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru have
strictly fall under the standard definition of disproportionally high shares of brownfield
FDI. They also have not been thoroughly FDI, while in Sub-Saharan Africa, the share
benchmarked in terms of representativeness of foreign acquisitions in total FDI is very
and coverage. (See annex 2A for more low. The size of the market matters as well.
details on the sources, their contents, and The BRICS (Brazil, the Russian Federation,
limitations.) India, China, and South Africa), Argentina,
Brownfield investment occurs frequently in and Mexico—where larger shares of brown-
developing countries, but more so in some field investment are recorded—are some of
than in others. Income is a strong predictor of the largest economies in the developing
both the absolute volume of brownfield world.
FIGURE 2.2 Higher Shares of Brownfield Investments Occur in More Developed Economies
100
90
Share of M&A in total FDI inflows 2007–17 (%)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
100 1,000 10,000 10,0000
GDP per capita (mean 2007–17)
Source: World Bank calculations, based on data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A)
database (http://www.unctad.org/fdistatistics) and fDi Markets, a Financial Times dataset (https://www.fdimarkets.com/).
Note: The figure shows investment destination countries with per capita GDP below US$15,000. Data are averages for 2007–17. FDI = foreign direct
investment; GDP = gross domestic product; M&A = mergers and acquisitions.
H o w B e n e f ici a l Ar e F o r e ig n Ac q u i s i t i o n s o f Fir m s i n D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t ri e s ? 63
The sectoral composition of these large networks are hard to build from scratch, such
economies might also lie behind cross-country as food and beverages, wholesale and retail
differences in the intensity of acquisitions. trade, and health services; and (c) sectors that
The aggregate data confirm that although are highly regulated, such as financial services
brownfield investment can take place in any (figure 2.3). Manufacturing activities with
sector, it occurs more intensely in (a) activities strong backward or forward linkages to these
that rely on land (agriculture, mining, and real industries—such as food processing, tobacco,
estate, for example) where access is restricted; or pharmaceuticals—also attract significantly
(b) activities where distribution and client greater shares of brownfield investment.
FIGURE 2.3 Brownfield FDI Is Likelier in Sectors that Rely on Land, Have Established Distribution
Networks, or Are Highly Regulated
a. High-income countries
0 20 40 60 80 100
Share of total FDI (%)
b. Upper-middle-income countries
Public administration and defense; compulsory social security 100.0
Other service activities 100.0
Construction 100.0
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing 84.8 15.2
Human health and social work 57.2 42.8
Education 37.8 62.2
Financial and insurance 27.6 72.4
Administrative and support services 24.0 76.0
Professional, scientific, and technical 21.2 78.8
Arts, entertainment, and recreation 19.8 80.2
Transportation and storage 13.1 86.9
Real estate 10.9 89.1
Mining and quarrying 9.4 90.6
Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply 8.3 91.7
Water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation 8.0 92.0
Manufacturing 6.1 93.9
Information and communication 3.6 96.4
Accommodation and food service 3.1 96.9
0 20 40 60 80 100
Share of total FDI (%)
M&A Greenfield
FIGURE 2.3 Brownfield FDI Is Likelier in Sectors that Rely on Land, Have Established Distribution
Networks, or Are Highly Regulated (continued)
c. Lower-middle-income countries
Construction 100.0
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing 78.6 21.4
Mining and quarrying 22.5 77.5
Human health and social work 21.1 78.9
Wholesale and retail trade 11.1 88.9
Financial and insurance 11.1 88.9
Education 9.8 90.2
Water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation 6.6 93.4
Administrative and support services 6.5 93.5
Information and communication 4.4 95.6
Manufacturing 3.8 96.2
Arts, entertainment, and recreation 3.0 97.0
Transportation and storage 2.7 97.3
Accommodation and food service 2.0 98.0
Real estate 1.1 98.9
Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply 1.0 99.0
Professional, scientific, and technical 0.9 99.1
0 20 40 60 80 100
Share of total FDI (%)
d. Low-income countries
0 20 40 60 80 100
Share of total FDI (%)
M&A Greenfield
Source: World Bank calculations, based on data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A)
database (http://www.unctad.org/fdistatistics) and fDi Markets, a Financial Times dataset (https://www.fdimarkets.com/).
Note: Data are for 2010–17. Volumes are aggregated by country income group, following the World Bank classifications for fiscal year 2017 throughout,
to maintain consistency. Only shares of foreign direct investment (FDI) over total industry values exceeding US$20 million are represented in the panels.
FDI = foreign direct investment; M&A = mergers and acquisitions.
FIGURE 2.4 Greenfield Affiliates Typically Have Larger Workforces than Brownfield Affiliates,
Considering Age of the Firm
Controlled premium
0.3
3
0.2
2
0.1
1
0 0
0 10 20 30 40 China Côte Indonesia Moldova Serbia Vietnam
d’Ivoire
Age of acquisition (years)
China Indonesia Vietnam Greenfield lower 95% CI / upper 95% CI
Moldova Serbia Côte d’Ivoire Brownfield lower 95% CI / upper 95% CI
Source: World Bank calculations, based on industrial censuses from six countries.
Note: Industrial census data were analyzed from China, Côte d’Ivoire, Indonesia, Moldova, Serbia, and Vietnam (for data details, see annex 2A). CI = confi-
dence interval.
a. In panel b, the graph shows premia relative to the benchmark of a domestic firm, set at 0. “Domestic” refers to the firms that have not changed their own-
ership from local to foreign at any point in the observed sample.
Myriad dimensions and layers can be stud- Productivity, the value of the firm’s assets,
ied under the umbrella of firm-level outcomes. exports, and diversification of production are
In terms of development impact, more conventional measures of how competitive a
emphasis is placed on impacts that reflect two firm is, while the extent to which these returns
broad objectives: competitiveness (which cap- benefit local workers and suppliers can be
tures productivity and returns to investment) measured by wages and imports, respectively.
and inclusiveness (the extent to which these Starting from competitiveness, both types
returns benefit a broad range of society). of multinationals are significantly more pro-
These two objectives conceptually track two ductive than the average domestic firm in all
pillars of sustainable development—economic six countries observed (figure 2.5). The value
and social—to which typically a third pillar, of firms’ assets is a distinct feature of brown-
environmental, is added. Firm-level data used field affiliates (figure 2.5, panel c); indeed, it
for this exercise only shed light on the first is a major motivation for investment.
two, although several hypotheses can be Valuable assets, however, are not reflected in
made on the differential effect on the environ- significantly better labor productivity for
ment of brownfield versus greenfield brownfield affiliates than greenfield affiliates
investment. (figure 2.5, panel b): the averages across the
The economic and social outcomes of two groups of firms are within the margin of
foreign-owned firms differ substantially error, and in all countries are significantly
from those of domestic firms (box 2.2). better than domestic firms. When it comes to
These differences in turn help shift macro- internationalization, both brownfield and
economic and social outcomes in host coun- greenfield affiliates have greater exposure
tries, depending on the volume of investment than domestic firms, and comparable levels
and the presence of complementary condi- in exports and imports (figure 2.5, panels d
tions that facilitate the absorption of this and e), exhibiting closer supply linkages to
foreign investment by firms, regions, and the domestic market in only one case:
countries. Indonesia.
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BOX 2.2
The Evidence on Economic and Social Outcomes of Multinational Enterprises
Although foreign direct investment (FDI) is gener- and North Africa, for example, multinationals dif-
ally associated with positive effects on development, fer significantly in terms of export propensity and
whether these effects will materialize is neither auto- geographical diversification because of the concen-
matic nor monotonic; it varies considerably across tration of FDI in natural resource sectors. Multi-
various types of enterprises, sectors, regions, and coun- nationals also contribute more to gender empower-
tries, and it is highly dependent on mediating factors ment in this region than anywhere else by employing
and local conditions. significantly more women in managerial positions
A recent examination of the World Bank Enterprise than do domestic firms, potentially because of social
Surveys highlighted systematic differences between and cultural differences between the home and host
foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) and domes- countries.
tic firms across 63 countries over 10 dimensions that Differences in some key areas that drive competi-
matter for development. Although there appears to tiveness (such as productivity, innovation, and skills
be no striking trade-off between competitiveness and transfer) appear to increase with income, while pre-
inclusiveness of foreign multinationals, their premi- miums in all other areas are greatest in lower-mid-
ums over domestic firms differ substantially across dle-income or low-income markets, highlighting the
regions and income groups. relevance of foreign multinationals for socioeconomic
Relative to other regions, foreign MNEs estab- progress in these contexts.
lished in eastern Europe and central Asia, for exam- Outcomes of foreign-owned firms, however, should
ple, exhibit better outcomes than domestic firms not be confused with the aggregate development impact
on most of the dimensions relating to competitive- of international business; they are one among a num-
ness (such as productivity, outward orientation, and ber of such drivers that shift the macroeconomic and
innovation) as well as inclusiveness (wages or provi- social outcomes of host countries. The actual aggre-
sion of training). Foreign MNEs established in Latin gate impact of foreign multinationals on host countries
America stand out in terms of productivity and remains dependent on the v olume of investment and
skills transfer, while in Sub-Saharan Africa, foreign the presence of complementary conditions that facili-
MNEs stand out with respect to job expansion and tate their absorption by firms, regions, and countries.
wages. These conditions include the policy environment, qual-
The mix appears to be highly specific to the ity of local institutions and fi nancial markets, sector
type of multinationals each region attracts, includ- characteristics, and spatial colocation of domestic with
ing the industry and investor motivations as well foreign firms.
as the host economy conditions. In the Middle East Sources: Alfaro 2017; Lejárraga and Ragoussis 2018.
FIGURE 2.5 Brownfield Affiliates and Greenfield Ventures Differ from the Average Domestic Firm
0.06
6
Controlled premium
Controlled premium
0.04
4
0.02
2
0
0 −0.02
China Côte Indonesia Moldova Serbia Vietnam China Côte Indonesia Moldova Serbia Vietnam
d’Ivoire d’Ivoire
Controlled premium
0.3
0
0.2
−2 0.1
0
−4
–0.1
China Côte Indonesia Moldova Serbia Vietnam Côte Indonesia Serbia Vietnam
d’Ivoire d’Ivoire
0.8
Controlled premium
Controlled premium
0.2
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.2
0 0
China Côte Indonesia Serbia Vietnam China Côte d’Ivoire Indonesia Vietnam
d’Ivoire
Greenfield Brownfield lower 95% CI / upper 95% CI lower 95% CI / upper 95% CI
Source: World Bank calculations, based on industrial censuses from six countries.
Note: For this figure, industrial census data were analyzed from China, Côte d’Ivoire, Indonesia, Moldova, Serbia, and Vietnam (further described in
annex 2A). The graphs show premia relative to the benchmark of a domestic firm, set at 0. “Domestic” refers to the firms that have not changed their
ownership from local to foreign at any point in the observed sample. Vertical bars indicate the confidence interval (CI). Industrial censuses vary in their
coverage of different variables, and so some countries are missing from selected panels.
lower levels that persist after the acquisition. firms evolve as well in directions that
In the smaller countries in the sample, such depend on the country context and period
as Côte d’Ivoire, Moldova, and Serbia, these of study (see annex 2C). In China, for
wage premiums of multinational firms example, the average size of firms acquired
are significantly greater than in bigger by foreign investors relative to the rest
economies. increased over 1998–2007, while the oppo-
As brownfield investment increases in a site happened in Serbia and Indonesia over
host country, the characteristics of acquired 2006–13 and 2009–15, respectively. In both
H o w B e n e f ici a l Ar e F o r e ig n Ac q u i s i t i o n s o f Fir m s i n D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t ri e s ? 69
China and Vietnam, the trend in average Average wages in the three categories of
productivity over the periods studied has firms are clearly sorted, with brownfield affili-
been toward acquisitions of firms that ates paying marginally less than greenfield
resemble more the rest of firms in the econ- affiliates throughout the first years of their
omy, while in Serbia and Indonesia, that has operations. Wages in foreign take-overs at the
not been the case. General patterns in the end of the first five years of operations are
evolution of acquired firm characteristics 40–50 percent higher than domestic firms,
would require study of more country cases and the gap can reach 70 percent in greenfield
over longer periods. affiliates (figure 2.6, panel a).
The same pattern arises when it comes to
importer and exporter status: greenfield affili-
Differences in Growth Paths between ates are significantly more internationalized
Brownfield Affiliates and the Average than brownfield affiliates, which in turn are
Domestic Firm significantly more exposed to global mar-
kets than domestic firms (figure 2.6, panels
Foreign investors do not target the average e and f). Specifically, over the first five years of
domestic firms for acquisition. So questions the firm’s operations, a brownfield affiliate is
naturally arise as to whether brownfield 70–100 percent more likely to export than
affiliates look different from the first day domestic firms, while greenfield affiliates are
they are established and whether differentia- at least three times more likely to export
tion is the result of (a) growth over their life- throughout the period. By the fifth year of
times, or (b) direct influence of the foreign their operation, brownfield and greenfield
investor. affiliates tend to significantly narrow their
By comparing the growth and transforma- gap in terms of internationalization.
tion paths of firms in the different categories Overall, much of the growth in the firms’
over several key outcomes such as employ- employment takes place within the first three
ment, labor productivity, wages, and levels of years of their operations. After that time,
internationalization, the evidence points to a firm sizes seem to stabilize. Both brownfield
positive answer to both questions, to varying and greenfield affiliates begin with more
extents. Track records of firms allow obser- ambitious undertakings, stabilizing at levels
vations for only five to seven years after firms that are 15–25 percent larger than the aver-
enter.5 A deeper analysis of transformation age domestic firm (figure 2.6, panel c). When
following acquisition yields insights for only it comes to product offerings, while all types
the same number of years. These first years of of firms diversify within the first five years of
a firm’s life cycle capture important dynam- their operations, greenfield and brownfield
ics: whether in developing countries or in affiliates accelerate their diversification more
mature economies such as the United States, rapidly, and by the fifth year of their life-
half of start-ups fail within that period. times end up with a profile that includes dif-
Growth paths of brownfield affiliates and ferent activities (figure 2.6, panel d).
greenfield ventures. Firms that get acquired Firm transformation after firm acquisition.
by foreign investors look different at origin Growth paths show that acquisition targets
from firms that do not. They start off larger start off with above-average potential, which
and more productive from the first year of translates into better outcomes in the medium
their operations, and they offer better wages to long term. But is it foreign ownership that
for their workers than the average domestic improves firm performance, or rather advan-
firm. These differences are not statistically tages at birth and the ability of firms to grow
discernible at the very origin but become differently?
apparent already within the first year of a This exercise examines changes in out-
firm’s lifetime. comes for firms that transition into MNE
7 0 Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2019/2020
FIGURE 2.6 Brownfield and Greenfield FDI Firms Perform Better than Domestic Firms over the First Five Years of Operation
a. Wage growth (US$, thousands, constant 2010), b. Value added per employee (US$, millions, constant 2010),
controlled average controlled average
4 0.015
3 0.010
2 0.005
1 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
Number of years after firm birth Number of years after firm birth
Greenfield MNE Domestic Brownfield MNE
2.8
controlled average (%)
0.15
2.6
2.4
0.10
2.2
2.0
0.05
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
Number of years after firm birth Number of years after firm birth
Greenfield MNE Domestic Brownfield MNE
e. Probability of exports (%), controlled average f. Probability of imports (%), controlled average
0.5 0.7
Probability of imports, controlled
Probability of exports, controlled
0.4 0.6
average (%)
average (%)
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
Number of years after firm birth Number of years after firm birth
Greenfield MNE Domestic Brownfield MNE
Source: World Bank calculations, based on industrial censuses from six countries.
Note: For this figure, industrial census data were analyzed from China, Côte d’Ivoire, Indonesia, Moldova, Serbia, and Vietnam (as further described in annex 2A). “Domestic” refers to
the firms that have not changed their ownership from local to foreign at any point in the observed sample. Growth paths of firm outcomes can be captured in a simple framework
using an interaction between indicators of firm group (greenfield, brownfield, domestic) and years after entry in the following specification: y ics = groupi β ⋅ dt + α cs + δ dit0 + ε ics.
The sample is restricted to cohorts whose entry is observed. To account for differences that might be driven by country characteristics, sector composition, and macroeconomic
trends, the regressions also control for country-sector fixed effects (FE) and cohort fixed effects. Wage growth paths are calculated using constant deflated values in U.S.
dollars. Regression includes country FE*2 -digit sector FE as well as cohort start year dummies. Vertical bars indicate the margin of error. FDI = foreign direct investment;
MNE = multinational enterprise.
H o w B e n e f ici a l Ar e F o r e ig n Ac q u i s i t i o n s o f Fir m s i n D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t ri e s ? 71
status relative to firms of similar profile that employment in brownfield affiliates expands by
remain domestic. The procedure involves approximately 4 percent, compared with
matching every firm acquired by foreign 1.5 percent in domestic firms with similar char-
investors to a firm that remains domestic and acteristics. The value of firms’ assets after the
has similar characteristics (in terms of acquisition follows a similar path. In addition,
employment, age, and sector) during the wages in brownfield affiliates appear on average
year before the acquisition takes place. 6 to increase, marginally widening the differences
Average outcomes in the two groups of firms with domestic firms (figure 2.7, panel b).
are then tracked over the years before and Transformation paths are highly depen-
after the acquisitions in a framework identi- dent on the context. The options available to
cal to the growth paths used in the previous domestic firms of similar characteristics differ
section. across markets, and so do the limitations in
Contrary to conventional belief about the foreign owners’ decision making—all of
potential job-destroying effects of M&A, which affect the value added from foreign
employment in newly acquired firms grows at capital. Large upper-middle-income countries
similar or often faster rates than the control (notably, China) offer more growth opportu-
group of domestic firms for the first few years nities to firms independently of the origin of
after acquisition (figure 2.7, panel a). More spe- their capital. Indeed, transformation paths in
cifically, two years after acquisition, the average the sample of five smaller or lower-income
FIGURE 2.7 Targeted Firms Improve Their Performance after Acquisition by Foreign Investors
5.0
3.0
2010), controlled average
4.8
2.5
4.6
4.4 2.0
−2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Years post-acquisition Years post-acquisition
0.05 6
constant 2010), controlled average
0.04
5
0.03
4
0.02
3
0.01
−2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Years post-acquisition Years post-acquisition
Domestic Foreign acquisitions
Figure continues next page
7 2 Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2019/2020
FIGURE 2.7 Targeted Firms Improve Their Performance after Acquisition by Foreign Investors (continued)
0.40 0.8
0.35 0.7
controlled average
0.30 0.6
0.25 0.5
0.20 0.4
0.15 0.3
−2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Years post-acquisition Years post-acquisition
Domestic Foreign acquisitions
Source: World Bank calculations, based on industrial censuses from six countries.
Note: “Without China” refers to results for five countries: Côte d’Ivoire, Indonesia, Moldova, Serbia. and Vietnam. Industrial census data analyzed for this figure are further
described in annex 2A, table 2A.1. “Domestic” refers to the firms that have not changed their ownership from local to foreign at any point in the observed sample. Growth
paths of firm outcomes can be captured in a simple framework using an interaction between indicators of firm group (brownfield, domestic) and years after entry in the
following specification: y ics = groupi β ⋅ dt + α cs + δ dit0 + ε ics. The sample is restricted to equinumerous groups of brownfield affiliates and domestic firms matched on the basis
of employment, age, and sector, in the year before the firm was acquired. To account for differences that might be driven by country characteristics, sector composition, and
macroeconomic trends, the regressions also control for country-sector fixed effects (FE) and year fixed effects. Regression includes country FE* 2-digit sector. Vertical bars
indicate the margin of error.
countries excluding China (Côte d’Ivoire, sectoral effects conceals important variations
Indonesia, Moldova, Serbia, and Vietnam) of benefits that are specific to these levels.
confirm greater value addition of foreign cap- Benefits from greater market access and
ital in some dimensions (figure 2.7, panels diversification, for example, are expected to
c–f). Acquired firms in these countries signifi- be more pronounced in manufacturing and
cantly increase their ability to access markets primary commodities than in services. There
through exports and product diversification, are also a number of dimensions—such as
while wages adjust to a higher level than liabilities and the skill composition of work-
expected. Specifically, by the fifth year follow- force, or relative measures such as export-to-
ing acquisition, the average brownfield affili- sales ratio—where differences are less
ate has increased wages by 10–30 percent discernible in the sample studied following
relative to no adjustment in the wages of acquisition.
domestic firms. The rise in labor remunera- Overall, and despite important data limi-
tion reflects, at least partly, adjustment to a tations, the evidence supports a value addi-
marginally higher level of productivity. These tion of foreign investors in some key
premiums for new brownfield affiliates dimensions related to development, such as
persist for the observed period following employment and market access comple-
acquisition. menting systemic benefits of acquisitions
These findings come with caveats. That reported from other sources (box 2.3). The
ownership shares are unobserved dilutes evidence also suggests that these advantages
potentially stronger impact in cases in which are more pronounced in markets that are
foreigners gain majority or full control of less developed, smaller, or both, which is a
domestic firms.7 Moreover, that the reported general hypothesis warranting further
estimates are conditional on country and investigation.
H o w B e n e f ici a l Ar e F o r e ig n Ac q u i s i t i o n s o f Fir m s i n D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t ri e s ? 73
BOX 2.3
Systemic Benefits of Brownfield Foreign Direct Investment: Telecommunication
Acquisitions in Africa
Starting in the mid-1990s, state-owned telecommu- them access to free electricity 24 hours a day. In addi-
nications operators in Africa were privatized in large tion, it provided four incubators for entrepreneurs
numbers, with the vast majority acquired by for- in four countries and six accelerators as well as
eign brownfield investors. Acquirers included global programs and e-e ducation services for digital skills
firms in the industry from Europe such as Orange, to schoolchildren, university students, and young
Vodafone, and Portugal Telecom, but also developing- professionals in partnership with local ministries
country multinational firms such as Maroc Telecom, of e ducation. Vodafone invested in Healthline
South Africa’s MTN, and India’s Bharti Airtel. The in Ghana, the first medical call center in Africa.
sector grew rapidly, with a subsequent phase of boom- The rapid growth has helped boost the economy
ing greenfield investment through license acquisitions and employment across Africa. In 2015, mobile tech-
and a wave of new brownfield investment in existing nologies and services generated 6.7 percent of Africa’s
operators over the past decade. gross domestic product (GDP), or around US$150
Firms that were acquired by foreign investors often billion in economic value. Africa’s mobile ecosystem
invested in network expansion and upgrade, espe- directly supported over 1 m illion jobs. The expansion
cially for mobile and fixed internet access. Follow- of the sector has also supported an additional 2.4 mil-
ing the acquisition of Ghana Telecom, for example, lion jobs indirectly through production inputs, wages,
Vodafone invested around US$1 billion in improving public funding, and profits spent in other sectors.
the digital infrastructure in the country. There were This development has strengthened economic activ-
400 sites in 2008, increased to more than 2,000 sites ity in other industries through improved information
within six years. sharing and increased access to data and mobile
Employment reductions during an initial restruc- broadband.
turing of the acquired firms have not been rare but The outcomes of foreign acquisitions have been
were often followed by fast growth and subsequent more spectacular in some countries than in others,
job creation. The acquisition of Burkina Faso’s Airtel with the context making a difference. Gasmi et al.
by Orange in 2016, for example, was associated with (2013) note poor outcomes of some acquisitions in
a drop of the enterprise’s full-time headcount from resource-scarce, landlocked African countries as well
291 to 259, followed by a 10 percent average annual as in resource-rich African countries because of weak
increase annually that increased the headcount to contractual design, inadequate policy enforcement in
365 by 2019. Jobs offered to local populations by the infrastructure sector, and insufficient aggregate
these multinational firms often served as a vehicle demand. The bundling of telecommunications with
for skills upgrade: in 2016, for example, 80 percent banking services allowed some incumbents to compete
of the 20,000 employees of the Middle East and successfully against brownfield ventures in some mar-
Africa branch of Orange received training averaging kets. Sector-specific taxation imposes additional costs
26 hours. to the investor in others. G enerally, in the absence
Engagement of the operators in areas outside of strong state capacity, competition is a necessary
the strict boundaries of their markets has also been complement to foster development outcomes of such
common. Orange funded the Africa Cup of Nations investments.
football tournament in 2013 and supported more than Sources: Estrin and Pelletier 2018; Gasmi et al. 2013; GSMA Intelligence 2016; GSM
30 rural radio stations in 13 counties by providing Association (GSMA) financial statements; Orange 2017; Staff 2015.
7 4 Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2019/2020
The frameworks are often disconnected not • Increase the efficiency of competition
only in terms of the criteria used to evaluate policies to reduce the administrative bur-
transactions but also in their procedural den of controls, strengthen enforcement
requirements. Generally, although competi- capacity, and reduce the scope for tactical
tion reviews are often more focused on impediments to foreign acquisitions by
efficiency considerations and potential mar- incumbents. The objective here is to both
ket effects, public interest considerations are safeguard competition and minimize the
pervasive in investment assessment frame- burden of administrative procedures on
works. Therefore, the degree of subjectivity business by using public resources more
of investment reviews is higher, and so is the effectively, ultimately fostering the inter-
uncertainty of the process. The lack of pre- national exposure of markets. Competi-
dictability can be potentially discouraging for tion authorities are often ill equipped to
brownfield investments that qualify for such deliver these mandates in lower-income
review. countries (Berger, Gsell, and Olekseyuk
An alternative proposed by some practi- 2019; World Bank 2016).
tioners is to merge the two processes into one, • Enhance cooperation between competi-
in a so-called single-review model (Bakhoum tion and investment authorities with a
and Fox 2019). An example of full conver- view to reducing inconsistencies between
gence on the substantive criteria to review different time lines for reviews, different
mergers and investment is South Africa, thresholds and considerations triggering
where the investment framework specifically review, or their mandatory nature. This
delegates the review to the competition con- cooperation stands to facilitate both pro-
trol framework.11 The adoption of that model cesses without necessarily compromising
remains the exception rather than the rule in their content: independent assessments
practice. of competition effects are essential to
Overall, a policy framework that supports market well-being. A wider application
brownfield investment should emphasize the of the single-review model, along with
following: improvements in its design, could poten-
tially prove beneficial in countries where
• Streamline investment screening mecha- brownfield investment is rising fast.
nisms and approvals, focusing on trans- • Avoid differential treatment of brown-
parency, well-defined criteria, consistency field multinationals with respect to
with competition frameworks, reliable investment incentives. Although more
time frames for reviews and decisions, information is necessary to assess the
and judicial redress for the investor. extent of discrimination in this area, and
Clearly defined methodologies to assess its potential cost, eligibility for incentives
“public interest” could expand the is an essential element of a supportive
empirical basis underpinning the assess- framework for brownfield investment.
ments and increase the efficiency of the It is also an element that ensures that the
process. In addition, a multilateral right signals are being sent to investors
investment facilitation framework would likely to enter in that mode.
go a long way toward improving the • A d d re s s o p e ra t i o n a l b a r r i e r s t o
transparency and predictability of a multinationals, such as to movement
range of other administrative procedures of people and board nominations, to
to deal with investments.12 International facilitate participation of foreign investors
rules for investment facilitation are rare in development of the firm. Many of these
(Polanco Lazo 2018). Only a few inter- restrictions are not specific to brownfield
national investment agreements cover investment but are more frequently
rules on the facilitation of business encountered in sectors where this mode of
activity. entry is more intensive, such as services,
H o w B e n e f ici a l Ar e F o r e ig n Ac q u i s i t i o n s o f Fir m s i n D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t ri e s ? 77
and can be particularly stringent with therefore be more relevant for fast growing,
respect to investment originating from lower-middle-income economies where the
other developing countries. share of foreign acquisitions is rising. They
could also be more relevant for attracting
The reasons why brownfield investment is investment into sectors where brownfield
more common in higher-income economies investment takes place more frequently, such
extend beyond the specific considerations as agriculture or services. Governments in
already discussed. By engaging actively in these contexts have the means to foster the
the process of improving institutions and potential of foreign acquisitions by addressing
laying strong market foundations, govern- administrative frictions, enhancing the pre-
ments are supporting brownfield investment dictability of controls, and safeguarding
without that necessarily being the explicit competition.
objective. Stronger institutions ensure the Future research should expand the evi-
protection of intellectual property, respect of dence base with analysis of outcomes of
contractual arrangements, and shareholders’ acquisitions over longer periods of time and
minority rights, all of which make this mode in different country contexts. Additional evi-
of entry more appealing. The growth of via- dence would also be warranted on the effects
ble stock markets and successful firms that of acquisitions of intangible as opposed to
are attractive for foreign investment can tangible assets, as well as on the develop-
have the same effect. Causality could go in ment effects on the acquiring firm, motivated
both directions, as brownfield acquisitions by the booming outward investment from
can potentially bring longer-term benefits major developing economies to the rest of
like stronger corporate governance, which in the world. All these extensions will allow a
turn can foster stronger institutions (Bris, more nuanced case to be made for brown-
Brisley, and Cabolis 2008). field investment in the development process.
Finally, assessing the extent of “masked
effects” of this mode of entry on domestic
firms that would otherwise exit the market,
Concluding Remarks
saving jobs and revenue, could shed light on
This study documents the characteristics, the ways that brownfield investment con-
growth paths, and outcomes of multina- tributes to sustaining economic activity that
tional firms established through brownfield other modes of foreign entry cannot.
investment relative to those established Coupled with a systematic mapping of com-
through greenfield investment and domestic petition and investment screening frame-
firms in six developing countries to shed works, this evidence could improve technical
additional light on their contribution. A key assistance to developing countries and
takeaway from this analysis is that brown- attract more investment that works for
field affiliates add value to the development development.
process in ways that do not differ in their
essence from those established through
greenfield investment. Annex 2A. Data Sources
Although more evidence is necessary to
establish general conclusions and macroeco- UNCTAD Aggregate Data
nomic effects, the experience of the six coun- Cross-border mergers and acquisitions
tries analyzed in this study suggests that (M&A) statistical sources from the United
foreign acquisitions could be adding more N a t i o n s C o n f e r e n c e o n Tr a d e a n d
value in markets at the lower end of the devel- Development (UNCTAD) are based on infor-
opment spectrum—that is, in countries where mation reported by Thomson Reuters. Such
most FDI still takes place through greenfield M&A conform to the standard definition of
investment. The findings reported here could foreign direct investment (FDI) as far as the
7 8 Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2019/2020
equity share is concerned. However, the data or c ensus longitudinal data from the six
also include purchases via domestic and inter- developing countries investigated in this
national capital markets, which should not be study: China, Côte d’Ivoire, Indonesia,
considered to be FDI flows. Cases of round- Moldova, Serbia, and Vietnam. For the
tripping (also known as round-trip transac- growth path analysis, this study analyzed
tions) are also considered on the basis of the all cohorts of firms whose entry as well as
immediate acquiring country and immediate survival for at least five years was observed
target country principles. (table 2A.1).
Data on announced greenfield FDI proj- Cross-country, firm-level data have
ects sourced from UNCTAD are based on important limitations. One of the most crit-
the information provided by fDI Markets, a ical concerns is the issue of comparability of
service of the Financial Times (https://www employment and capital measures, which
.fdimarkets.com/). fDI Markets tracks all can vary from one survey to another.
new investment projects and expansion of Harmonization has been undertaken to
existing investments but does not include address this issue. However, the analysis is
information on the equity participation by necessarily constrained by the data avail-
investors. This suggests that the data may able (or not available) in the raw surveys or
include investments that are not qualified censuses. In addition, all surveys available
as FDI. Joint ventures are also included for this study record foreign ownership as a
only where they lead to a new physical binary indicator (yes or no), bundling port-
operation. folio investment of less than 10 percent
with FDI (>10 percent of total assets) and
not allowing a separate treatment of
Industrial Censuses
majority-owned affiliated of foreign firms,
The cross-country microeconomic evi- where effects of acquisitions could be more
dence draws firm and establishment survey pronounced.
Contribution to
Source Partial SS Df F Prob > F (%) model SS (%)
Model 1,042.00 1,327 13.21 0.00 42.9
Country 21.38 5 71.96 0.00 2.1
Sector 8.49 86 1.66 0.01 0.8
Year 18.61 17 18.42 0.00 1.8
country*sector 36.16 263 2.31 0.00 3.5
country*year 237.41 31 128.87 0.00 22.8
sector*year 124.35 925 2.26 0.00 11.9
Source: World Bank calculations, based on industrial censuses.
Note: Industrial census data came from six countries: China, Côte d’Ivoire, Indonesia, Moldova, Serbia, and Vietnam (further described in annex 2A). Variance
components are estimated on the linear probability of a multinational firm transitioning to foreign ownership from domestic status at some point during the
period it is observed; on country, sector, and year fixed effects; and on their two-way interactions. Df = degrees of freedom; F = F-value; SS = sums of squares.
4.0
2010
3.5
1.0
0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5
Labor productivity (ratio of brownfield MNE avg. to the rest)
China Serbia Vietnam Indonesia
Source: World Bank calculations, based on industrial censuses from four countries.
Note: Industrial census data analyzed for this figure are further described in annex 2A, table 2A.1. MNE = multinational enterprise.
8 0 Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2019/2020
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