FORECASTING DALAM PERENCANAAN

INFRASTRUKTUR WILAYAH DAN KOTA

Parkin and Sharma, Infrastructure Planning, Chapter 5, Thomas
Thelford, 1999
 “
Building the right infrastructure depends on good
forecasting, and the accuracy of this forecasting
will depend on the degree control over future
events that can be exercised by the planner
 Baseline data

Judgemental and numerical

techniques

Projections:
 Population
 Housing
 Employment

Scenario generation and design

of alternatives

Predictions:
 Land travel
 Air travel
 Electricity demand
 Civil engineering
infrastructure

Typical Infrastructure forecasting Process (p. 66)

 1.
Judmental and Numerical Techniques
Judgement MEthods

▷ The use of expert to predict the future

conforms to common sense
▷ To See what They Want To See, overly
conservative, consistently overconfidence
▷ Try to avoid your judges together in a group
▷ Combine forecast derived by different
methods
Extrapolation
▷ The extrapolation of historical data : reliable and the
social environment is stable
▷ Steps in extrapolation methods:
1. Cleaning data (outliers, combining measures)
2. Deseasonalizing data
3. Selecting smooting factors
4. Calculating new starting point for the forecast curve
5. Calculating a new trend
6. Estimating the current status, correcting for lag
7. Calculating the forecast
8. Updating seasonal factors, returning to step iv and repeating
Econometric Method
▷ When causal relationship are well understood
▷ Predictable changes are anticipated in the causal variables
▷ Regression analysis is the best known
▷ The key: to keep the regression equation as simple as possible,
complexity leads to confusion, no increase the accuracy
▷ Mitigation for causal variables
▷ Sensitivity testing
Segmentation
▷ When the phenomenon being forecast can be broken down
into discrete parts
▷ Segment to be independent, equal importance, good database
▷ The relationship between segments must be understood
▷ Segment may be chosen because of their relevance to the
prediction of changes in the variable or because of similarity of
causal variables (marketing research and trip forecasting)
▷ A form of simulation sometimes used in regional planning
studies is input-output analysis
▷ Accuracy improved by combining method: subjective,
segmentation, extrapolation or econometric method
Examples of projections
▷ Population projections
 Segmentation  component methods
 Migration between regions  significant factors
▷ Housing projections
 Little control over the mechanism of supply (unless state)
 Space for housing and the adequacy of this provision
 Household, headship rates: proportion of a population groups :
household heads
 The type of housing depend on the range of household sizes
▷ Employment projections
 Needs comprehensive knowledge of the past and present economic
activities in the target region
 Surveys, census data or from surveys
 Manufacturing non manufacturing, traffic analysis zone, commuting trip
between zones
 Complexity of market motivation, sitting of small to medium
enterprises; choice of people make when they choose housing
 2.
Scenario Generation and Design
Alternatives
 Scenario generation
▷ Scenario are plans generated to facilitate predictions
▷ Descriptions of possible plans situated on the planning horizon
▷ Input assumption (population, housing, or employment projections) are varied between
realistic limits, typical sketch plans creation  combination of values
▷ Different types of transport modes or variation in funding
▷ Prediction, based on modeling, derived for each of the scenarios
▷ Axes in scenarios:
○ Exploratory – anticipatory : present and explore what consequences may result. Anticipatory: final state and speculate
on what events are required to create it
○ Descriptive – normative: descriptive take no account desirability of the future; normative: social values and desirable
goals
○ Trend – peripheral: projections based on past events; peripheral : low probability futures

▷ Infrastructure planning study: exploratory, descriptive, trends

▷ Community group: anticipatory, normative, peripheral “imagination and hope”
▷ Number of scenario: avoid 5-6