Scenario-based Impediments for Intelligent Freight
Transportation in Pakistan
Nazam Ali
Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering,
University of Management and Technology,
Lahore, Pakistan
nazamali755@gmail.com
Abstract— Freight transportation is a dynamic part of a
country’s economy and yield positive dimensions on GDP. This
paper discusses the problems that why intelligent freight
transportation, a prerequisite for the regional or international
evolution and development, is relatively missing from the
mainstream economic geography of Pakistan. This paper
discusses the possible scenario-based impediments which hinder
the intelligent operations of freight transportation in the region.
The core scenario-based impediments discussed in this paper
include; State Fleet Policy (SFP), Advanced Driver Assistance
Systems (ADAS), Infrastructure Management Systems (IMS),
and City Logistics (CL). The role of the most direct key factors
along with their negative projections on impact areas impeding
smart transportation logistics are also highlighted in this
research. For future research, these implications will also be
validated via expert surveys or a Delphi-analysis.
Keywords—freight transportation; ITS; scenario-based
impediments; state fleet policy; city logistics;
I. PROBLEM BACKGROUND AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS
The transport sector plays a pivotal role in improving the
competitive economy as well as taming the optimized
operations of fleet transportation. Efficient transportation
systems work as a stimulus in reducing the logistics and
transaction costs which are impetus of economic growth in
developing regions. Freight transportation, which is a
prerequisite and inevitable component contributor in the
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the development of a
country, is incessantly under performing in Pakistan.
According to the report published by The World Bank in
2013, freight inefficiencies in Pakistan are costing 150 billion
Pakistani rupees to the national economy annually. The
Logistics Performance Index (LPI) of The World Bank put
Pakistan on 110th rank out of 150 countries which is the
lowest as compared to other Asian countries in terms of
quality of trade and infrastructure management [1]. Right
now, trucking sector shares 96% of the total freight
transportation which is mainly dependent upon special ethnic
community who generally owns less than five vehicles
constituting the seventy-nine (79%) percent of the total fleet.
These small-sized (1-5 vehicles) trucking companies are non-
regulated, non-registered and non-taxpaying [2].
In this study, an attempt is exercised to address the
following driving questions; what is intelligent freight
transportation, how freight transportation is evolving in
978-1-5386-8354-5/18/$31.00 ©2018 IEEE
Abdur Rahim
Department of Transportation Engineering and Management,
University of Engineering and Technology,
Lahore, Pakistan
rahim@uet.edu.pk
Pakistan and what are the scenario-based impediments in
efficient and optimized logistics operations. The main key
factors which have direct implications on freight
transportation, their negative impacts on impact areas are
discussed for the creation of expected scenarios.
The technological systems which ensure the traffic
safety, smooth the traffic flow and avoid traffic disturbances
while improving the efficiency and productivity of private
and public fleet systems are known as Intelligent
Transportation Systems (ITS). Sussman [3] categorize ITS
into six following types; Advanced Traffic Management
Systems (ATMS), Advanced Traveler Information Systems
(ATIS), Advanced Vehicle Control Systems (AVCS),
Commercial Vehicle Operations (CVO), Advanced Public
Transportation Systems (APTS), and Advanced Rural
Transportation Systems (ARTS). Intelligent freight
transportation includes conflict-free, clean and efficient
mobility operations [4]. ITS has stimulated the organized and
speedy operations within urban centers for delivery scheme
planning and delivery bay management [5]. The improved
company-driven usage of technological advancements in
mega-cities for routing, location planning and demand
forecasting are the vital component of ITS [6]. ITS has
inherently advantageous characteristics which makes its
operations more efficient, smooth, and less costly for specific
transport task [3]. For example, using rail for the
transportation of bulk commodities for longer distances is
more advantageous because of economies of scale, while use
of road freight is recommended in cities with dispersed
origins and destinations. So, a multi-modal system in a good
contract which is integrated together yield a perfect mix to
acquire desired goals in transporting the commodities to the
destinations efficiently, effectively, and smoothly.
In Pakistan, rail transport was a main mode of
transportation till 1970s, but in recent decade’s government
inclinations shifted towards road transportation which
declined rail transportation’s share from seventy-three (73%)
percent to four (4%) percent of the total freight transportation
[3]. From 2005-2010, the budgetary expenditures on railways
was only 45.5 billion PKR, while the investment on national
highways stood at 155 billion PKR [2]. Because of the
deteriorated condition of Pakistan Railways, it takes on
average 21 to 28 days to deliver the finished consignments
over a distance of 1,800 KMs. This accounts for extended
97
travel time which is four to seven (4-7) times greater than in Infrastructure o Insufficient traffic monitoring systems
the United States and China [1]. Management o Inadequate vehicle location and condition
Systems monitoring systems
The main connecting freight hubs in Pakistan with their o Unavailability of crash prevention systems
distances (in KMs) are shown in the following Table 1. The o Need of driver behavior monitoring and
distances between these connecting hubs are above 1000 controlling systems
KMs, which makes a strong agreement that rail transport is City o No discharging mechanism of inner city
more cost effective for longest routes as compared to road Logistics traffic by rerouting or redirecting
o Non-transit signal priority to heavy-duty
transportation. vehicles at cross roads
o Deficiency of planning mechanism for road
TABLE 1. APPROXIMATE DISTANCES BETWEEN MAIN expansion
CONNECTING FREIGHT HUBS IN PAKISTAN [2] o Un-designed inter-modal transport chains for
Origin Destination Distance (KMs) safe and faster delivery
Karachi Lahore 1,260
Based on the previously discussed possible impediments
Karachi Rawalpindi 1,540
(Table 2) for intelligent freight transportation in the contexts
Karachi Peshawar 1,700
of Pakistan. The remainder of the paper is divided into three
Karachi Khyber Pass (Afghan Border) 1,756
main sections; in the first section, mechanism of the creation
Karachi Khunjrab Pass (Chinese 2,400
Border)
of scenarios is discussed. In the second part, the key factors
Gwader Lahore 1,771 and their subsequent effects on impact areas are highlighted
Gwader Rawalpindi 2,051 along with their negative projections. In the final section,
Gwader Peshawar 2,211
some discussions are made on these scenario-based
impediments and recommendations are given to improve the
Gwader Khunjrab Pass – Chinese 2,900
Border existing freight system in the region.
Gwader Karachi 400
II. SCENARIO ANALYSIS ON INTELLIGENT FREIGHT
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS
The depreciated condition of freight transportation
systems in the country requires an urgent attention of the These scenarios are designed based on the knowledge of
stake-holders including academics, entrepreneurs, and the authors and extensive literature review examined for the
government bodies to adapt Intelligent Transportation intelligent freight transportation systems [7]–[11]. The role of
Systems (ITS) to find possible solutions of the exacerbated the stakeholders and key factors used as descriptive features
situations. In this research paper, an attempt is made to was anticipated as negative projections on above-mentioned
highlight the negative impacts of the key factors with highest core impediments for the intelligent freight transportation
dependency on the scenario-based core impediments (i.e., systems. These projections (negative) are utilized in setting
SFP, ADAS, IMS, and CL etc.). In Pakistan, these up various scenarios by complying with methodological
impediments are defined based on the literature review and (existing-knowledge and literature review) considerations
scenario-specific situations in Pakistan. Some of the core and each scenario corresponds to the endorsements from
problems to the above-mentioned scenario-based relevant literature. The chronological structure of the
impediments are as under in Table 2; methodology which led to the conception of the scenario-
based impediments is discussed in Fig. 1.
TABLE 2. MAJOR IMPEDIMENTS IN EACH CASE SCENARIO
Scenario- Core Problems
based Fields
State Fleet o Budgetary restrictions and unidentified SOPs
Policy for fleet operations
o Disregarding current and future operational
needs of the fleet
o Non-evaluation of the existing fleet and
assessing how well it can meet the future
requirements
o Least inclusion of technical experts in policy
making

Advanced o Non-availability of adaptive cruise and light

Driver control technology in fleet vehicles
Assistance o Absence of blind spot and driver drowsiness
Systems detections
o Lack of collision avoidance systems and
frequent lane changing warning systems
o Deficiency of skills planning, decision
making and technical know-how in drivers

Fig. 1. Sequence of steps for the conception of Scenario-based Impediments

on Intelligent Freight Transportation Systems

98
 These scenarios are selected based on the highest Stability of social systems
dependency of negative projections of defined key factors on Economic Economic prosperity in Pakistan
freight transportation. Some of the impact areas such as; growth
Surety of products quality and services
public, economic growth, technological advancements,
Technological Technology acceptance reluctance
infrastructures building, and stakeholders are defined with Advancements
these definite factors. The interdependency analysis (Table 3) Cybercrime is increasing
of negative projections of key factors was evaluated for Infrastructure Poor attention to rail developments
overall development of specific scenario-based impediments. Building
Absence of technical trainings of stakeholders with
Final scenario-based impediments are; State Fleet Policy informed systems
(SFP), Advanced Drivers Assistance Systems (ADAS), Stake holders Political upheaval and rallies around the country
Infrastructure Management Systems (IMS), and City Forcefully detaining containers to block protests
Logistics (CL). The details of the influencing key factors and lack of experts’ inclusion in policy making
along with their impact areas are shown in Fig. 2 (see next
page). IV. DISCUSSIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
This study highlights the overall key factors along with
III. KEY FACTORS AND IMPACT AREAS their impact areas which contribute negative projections on
Each key factor is related with its most essential Intelligent Freight Transportation Systems in Pakistan. The
characteristics which hinders Intelligent Freight role of each identified key factor is very much crucial in
Transportation in Pakistan. These key factors are selected defining the scenario-based impediments. It is important to
very carefully ranging from social interactions to mention that the government should go an extra mile to
technological innovations and logistics market undergo far-reaching milestones for the upgradation of
competitiveness to socio-economic diversity. The logistics performance in the country. The involvement of
interdependency analysis for these defined key factors with technical personals from academics, and industry is
their characteristics is listed in Table 3. inevitable in policy making. Standard Operating Procedures
(SOPs) should be devised for quality control of drivers and
TABLE 3. DEFINED KEY FACTORS WITH THEIR CHARACTERSTICS vehicles on-road. In return, it will enhance the smooth and
Sr. No. Key factor Characteristics safe operations of freight systems. Infrastructure investments
1 Information Relational norms [12] should be done based on technical feasibilities instead of
sharing political decision making. Technological acceptability should
2 Innovation Technology acceptance model [13] be enforced in logistics companies and there should be
acceptance external consultants to ensure the compliance with designed
3 Cargo Segregation Freight volume division data [2]
guidelines and SOPs.
4 Industrialization Gross domestic product data [1] It is important to note that the validity of the projections
on scenario-based impediments should be treated very
5 Technological Annual patent registration data [14]
Advances
cautiously. There is a possibility that different evaluators may
6 Logistics Global logistic performance index not have same projection backgrounds as of authors and may
Competitiveness data [15] propose different interdependencies for their decisions. Also,
7 Political Political stability index data [16] the scope of this study is restricted to highlighting the core
framework scenario-based impediments which are central to the
8 Environmental Fossil fuel reserves by the World
dynamics Energy Agency [17] efficiency evaluation of Intelligent Freight Transportation.
9 E-commerce Retail net sales in Pakistan [18] For continuation of this study, these projections would be
better validated via expert surveys (in the form of
10 Security concerns Cybercrime data [19]
questionnaire interviews) or a Delphi-analysis. Furthermore,
It is very much needed to highlight the negative a comprehensive analysis would be conducted for future use
projections of these key factors on subsequent impact areas of Intelligent Freight Transportation to derive its further
which are considered important for sustainable development implications for Pakistan’s economic and policy areas.
of Intelligent Freight Transportation. However, these impact Moreover, in future an extended detailed study would be
areas are selected with their direct relevance with mentioned conducted to propose the effective and operative solutions in
scenario-fields. The negative projections of the defined key recent contextual constraints for freight systems in Pakistan.
factors with their impact areas are discussed in Table 4.

TABLE 4. NEGATIVE PROJECTIONS OF THE DEFINED KEY

FACTOS ON RESPECTIVE IMPACT AREAS
Impact Area Negative Projections
Public Disinclination of open information sharing between
stake-holders

99
Fig. 2. Key factors, their impact areas and Scenario-fields for Intelligent Freight Transportation Systems

100
 [10] A. Mckinnon, “Performance Measurement in Freight
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