Land-use modeling techniques and applications course syllabus, Spri... file:///cerulean/Users/dcp/Lumta/Webpage/lumta_syllabus.

html

Course Syllabus: GEOG590 002/ EVPP741 005: Land-Use Modeling

Techniques and Applications

Instructor: Dr. Dawn Parker

Assistant Professor, Departments of Geography and Environmental Science and Policy
Office: Geography department, 4th floor, Robinson B, Room 477A
Phone: 703-993-4640
E-mail: dparker3@gmu.edu
Office hours: Tuesday 3-5; Wed. 6-7; and by appointment
Website: http://mason.gmu.edu/~dparker3

Meeting time and location: Wednesdays 7:20-10 PM, 106 Robinson B

Class Web Site: http://mason.gmu.edu/~dparker3/lucc_class/lumta

Course Description: The course surveys literature on spatially disaggregated (fine-scale) empirical
models of land-use change (LUC). The course will begin with a discussion of factors that are
hypothesized to drive land-use change across multiple spatial, institutional, and human scales and a
discussion of issues related to LUCC modeling. The bulk of the course will be spent reviewing
techniques for land-use modeling, including statistical and regression models, Markov models (briefly),
cellular automata, mathematical programming and other optimization models, agent-based models, and
integrated models. We will conclude with a discussion of the strengths, weaknesses, and potential
complementarities of the models discussed. The role of geographic information systems as a tool for data
management, analysis and visualization in land-use modeling will be discussed throughout the course.
Readings will consist of excerpts from Briassoulis (1999), supplemented by articles from peer-reviewed
literature. Students will be expected to have a working understanding of spatial data structures,
geographic information systems, and statistical regression analysis, and to be comfortable manipulating
and interpreting systems of linear equations.

The format of the class will consist of both lecture and discussion, with substantial emphasis on student
participation. We have an exceptionally diverse and experienced population of graduate students at
Mason, and I expect that you will learn at least as much from one another as you will from me. Thus,
proportionally more class time will be devoted to interactive discussions than to lectures. With the
exception of the first week of class, students will be expected to complete short writing assignments
based on the week’s readings before class, and students will share responsibility for presenting a portion
of the scholarly articles. When possible, examples of computerized implementations of the LUC models
will be demonstrated in class and made available to students.

Goals of the Course: Having completed the course, students should be able to critically review and
interpret a land-use model, whether presented in a report or scholarly article. They should have an
understanding of the input data requirements, the ways in which the model output can be used, the spatial,
temporal, and human scale over which the model operates, the disciplinary scope of the model, and the
strengths, weaknesses, and limitations of the modeling technique used. Students should have an

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understanding of what empirical modeling techniques can be applied to a given data set. Finally, they
should have an understanding of what modeling techniques are appropriate for particular research
questions.

Recommended Prerequisites: An introductory GIS class, a quantitative methods class that includes
statistical regression analysis, and the ability to follow and understand algebraic representations of
systems of equations. Linear programming and calculus are helpful but not required.

Readings: All assigned readings will be available electronically. Many are available on-line without
restrictions on downloading. Others will be made available through an electronic reader, under
development. The link to this reader will be available here and on the class website when it is available.
Readings for the first two weeks are available for download without restrictions.

Course Requirements and Grading: Your grade will be based on the following:
· Short writing assignments and participation in class discussions (25%)
Short, informal writing assignments related to the week’s reading will generally be assigned.
The intent of these assignments is to help you distill and synthesize the week’s reading and to
generate ideas for class discussions. These writing assignments should be coherent (complete
sentences with reasonably correct grammar and spelling), but do not need to be edited and
polished. Assignments will be due via e-mail by 9 AM class days (Wednesdays). Late short
writing assignments will not be accepted. Assignments will be marked as missing (0),
inadequate (1), adequate (2), or excellent (3). I would like to make the short writings
available for the whole class, if students agree.

The 25% of your grade will be based on the combined content of both your short writings and
participation in class discussion. Therefore, if you tend to be less verbose in class, you may
want to put a bit more into the content of your short writings. Also, good questions from you
will contribute substantially to your participation grade.

· In-class presentations of required readings (25%)

Each student will be responsible for presenting two papers from the methods sections of the
course (weeks 4-13). The two papers must represent different modeling techniques. You
will have the opportunity to request your preferred papers. Because the class schedule is very
tight, if for any reason you cannot present your paper on the scheduled day, you will most
likely be assigned a paper later in the semester as an alternative. For your assigned papers,
please give a structured overview of the research question addressed by the paper, the
modeling methodology used, the input data used by the model, the model outputs, and the
authors’ interpretation of these outputs. Also, please comment on how effectively the model
methodology addresses the research question posed by the authors, potential input data issues,
the strengths and limitations of the authors’ approach, and improvements, extensions, or
alternative applications of the model. Your presentation should be no longer than 20 minutes.
We will have a computer if you wish to give an electronic presentation.

· Term paper (25%)

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For the term paper, students may complete a targeted literature review, focusing either on
application of a particular technique to specific phenomena, or on LUC models of a particular
geographic region. Ideally, the relevant literature for the paper should encompass no more
than 10-15 articles. (In other words – choose a well-focused topic!) Students with the
requisite technical background and interest may undertake a simple LUC modeling project
using one of the techniques that we review. The final paper should be 20-30 pages in length,
double spaced 12 points font, including tables, figures, and bibliography. An extended
abstract (up to 500 words) and paper bibliography will be due mid-semester, and final papers
will be due April 23 and will be presented during the last two weeks of the class. Late papers
will be penalized a quarter of a letter grade per day. Please review your potential paper topic
with me before getting started.

· Take-home final exam (25%)

The take-home final exam will be distributed the last day of class (April 30) and will be due at
the end of our scheduled final exam period (May 7, regular class time). Late final exams will
be penalized a half a letter grade per day and may result in a grade of incomplete in the class.

Please check before class to ensure that cell phones and pagers are turned off. Note that George Mason
is an honor code university.

Weekly Schedule and Required Readings:

I. Introduction: Issues in Land-Use Change modeling and Drivers of LUC

Week 1 (Jan 22): General introduction

Introduction to course, instructor, and fellow students
Trends in LUC and their consequences
LUC modeling concepts: definitions and discussion
Brainstorming session: Drivers of LUC in Northern VA

Required readings (You do not need to complete these before the first class):

Briassoulis: Chapter 1 (Introduction) and Sections 4.1 and 4.2 (Modeling section introduction and
classifications) http://www.rri.wvu.edu/WebBook/Briassoulis/chapter1(introduction).htm
http://www.rri.wvu.edu/WebBook/Briassoulis/Chapter4(Models1).htm#4.1
http://www.rri.wvu.edu/WebBook/Briassoulis/Chapter4(Models1).htm#4.2

LUCC science plan: Executive summary and Section 3:

http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/scienceplan/contents.html

Week 2 (Jan. 29): Overviews of LUCC models. Required readings:

Briassoulis: Chapter 2 (Historical Overview of Studies of LUC)

http://www.rri.wvu.edu/WebBook/Briassoulis/Chapter2(Histoverview).htm

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Agarwal et al.:
http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/newtown_square/publications/technical_reports/pdfs/2002/gtrne297.pdf

Verburg at al.: http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/MODLUC_Course/PDF/T.%20Veldkamp%20(intro).pdf

Week 3 (Feb. 5): Urban and rural drivers of LUC Article requests for paper presentations due.
Required readings:

Irwin and Geoghegan (2001)

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=MImg&_imagekey=B6T3Y-433P6Y4-G-T&_cdi=4959&_orig=browse&

Anas, Arnott, and Small (1999)

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-0515%28199809%2936%3A3%3C1426%3AUSS%3E2.0.CO%3B2-Z

Geist and Lambin (2003)

http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/pdf/02_February_Article_Geist_.pdf

Angelsen and Kaimowitz (1999)

http://www.worldbank.org/research/journals/wbro/obsfeb99/rethink.htm
http://www.worldbank.org/research/journals/wbro/obsfeb99/pdf/article4.pdf

II. Statistical Models

Week 4 (Feb. 12) Required Readings:

Anselin (2002) (“Under the hood”) (not for student presentation) OR Briassolis, Chapter 4.3, Statistical
and Econometric Models : http://www.rri.wvu.edu/WebBook/Briassoulis/Chapter4(models2).htm#4.5

Chomitz and Gray (1996)

Nelson and Hellerstein (1997)

Lambin (2000)
http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/MODLUC_Course/PDF/E.%20Lambin.pdf

Week 5 (Feb. 19) Required Readings:

Bell and Irwin (2002) (not for student presentation)

Irwin (2002)

Walker et al. (2002)

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Denninger and Minten (2002)

III. Markov and Cellular Automata Models

Week 6 (Feb. 26) Class cancelled, grrr!

Week 7 (March 5) Required Readings:

Batty (1997) (not for student presentation)

Torrens (2001) (not for student presentation)

White and Engelen (1993)

Clark (1997)

Week 8 (March 12): Spring break; no class

Week 9 (March 19) Required Readings:

Webster (1999)

Jenerette and Wu (2001)

Yeh and Li (2002)

IV. Optimization Models

Week 10 (March 26): Guest Lecture, Jonathan Kaplan Economic Research Service, USDA. Extended
paper abstracts and bibliographies due. Required readings:

Briassolis Chapter 4.5 (Optimization models)

http://www.rri.wvu.edu/WebBook/Briassoulis/Chapter4(models2).htm#4.5

Chuvieco (1993)

Oglethorpe, and O'Callaghan (1995)

Week 11 (April 2): We will also start MAS models this week. Required readings:

Angelsen (1999)

Carpentier et al. (2000)

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Parker, Manson et al. (forthcoming) (not for student presentation)

Saunders (1997)

V. Multi-Agent System Models

Week 12 (April 09) (We will also start integrated models this week) Required Readings:

Berger (2001)

Parker and Meretsky (forthcoming)

Engelen (forthcoming)

Pijanowski (2002)
http://www.msu.edu/~pijanows/ceus.pdf

VII. Evaluating LUCC model performance

Week 13 (April 16) Dr. Parker will be out of town. Class will meet without me to discuss this topic.
Required Readings:

Turner, Costanza, and Sklar (1989)

Oreskes et al. (1994)

Pontius (2000)

Pontius and Schneider (2001)

VI. Integrated Models

Week 14 (April 23) Final student papers due Required Readings:

Verburg, Soepboerg, et al. (2002)

http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/MODLUC_Course/PDF/P.%20Verbrug%20b.pdf

Landis and Zhang (1998, Part 2)

Wang and Zhang (2001)

Strengers et al. (forthcoming)

http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/MODLUC_Course/PDF/B%20de%20Vries%20a.pdf

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VIII. Model Comparisons, Open Questions and Student Paper Presentations

Week 15 (April 30)

Week 16 (May 7)

Bibliography of Required and Supplemental Readings

Introduction: Issues in Land-Use Change modeling and Drivers of LUC

Agarwal, C., G. M. Green, J. M. Grove, T. Evans, and C. Schweik. 2002. "A review and assessment of land-use change
models: Dynamics of space, time, and human choice." in Joint publication by the Center for the Study of
Institutions, Population, and Environmental Change at Indiana University-Bloomington and the USDA Forest
Service. USDA Forest Service Northeastern Forest Research Station.
http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/newtown_square/publications/technical_reports/pdfs/2002/gtrne297.pdf. Required
Anas, A., R. Arnott, and K. A. Small. 1998. Urban Spatial Structure. Journal of Economic Literature 36, 3:1426-1464.
Required
Angelsen, A., and D. Kaimowitz. 1998. Rethinking the causes of tropical deforestation: Lessons from economics models.
The World Bank Research Observer 14, 1:73-98.
http://www.worldbank.org/research/journals/wbro/obsfeb99/pdf/article4.pdf. Required
Briassoulis, H. 1999. Analysis of Land Use Change: Theoretical and Modeling Approaches. Regional Research Institute.
http://www.rri.wvu.edu/WebBook/Briassoulis/contents.htm. Required (Selected sections)
Brown, D., B. Pijanowski, and J. Duh. 2001. Modeling the Relationships between Land Use and Land Cover on Private
Lands in the Upper Midwest. Journal of Environmental Management 59:247-263.
http://www.msu.edu/~pijanows/Brown0369.pdf.
EPA. 2000. "Projecting Land-Use Change: A Summary of Models for Assessing the Effects of Community Growth and
Change on Land-Use Patterns." Pp. 260. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and
Development.
Geist, H., and E. F. Lambin. 2002. Proximate causes and underlying driving forces of tropical deforestation. Bioscience
52, 2:143-150. http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/pdf/02_February_Article_Geist_.pdf. Required
Geoghegan, J., L. J. Pritchard, Y. Ogneva-Himmelberger, R. Roy Chowdury, S. Sanderson, and B. L. Turner, II. 1998.
""Socializing the pixel" and "pixelizing the social" in land-use/cover change." Pp. 51-69 in People and Pixels,
edited by D. Liverman, E. F. Moran, R. R. Rindfuss, and P. C. Stern. National Research Council.
Irwin, E., and J. Geoghegan. 2001. Theory, data, and methods: developing spatially explicit economic models of land use
change. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 85, 1-3:7-23. Required
Kaimowitz, D., and A. Angelsen. 1998. Economic Models of Tropical Deforestation: A Review. Centre for International
Forestry Research.
Lambin, E. F. 1994. Modelling Deforestation Processes: A Review. European Commission.
Levin, S. A. 1992. The problem of pattern and scale in ecology. Ecology 73, 6:1943-1967.
Plantinga, A. J. 1999. "The Economics of Land Use: A Bibliography." The Agricultural and Forest Experiment Station,
University of Maine.
Turner, B. L. I., D. Skole, S. Sanderson, G. Fischer, L. Fresco, and R. Leemans. 1995. "Land-Use and Land-Cover
Change; Science/Research Plan." IGBP and HDP. http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/lucc.html. Required (Selected
sections)
Veldkamp, A., and E. F. Lambin. 2001. Predicting land-use change. Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Environment 85,
1-3:1-6.
Verburg, P. H., P. Schot, M. Dijst, and A. Velkamp. Forthcoming. Land-Use Change Modeling: Current Practice and
Research Priorities. GeoJournal.
http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/MODLUC_Course/PDF/T.%20Veldkamp%20(intro).pdf. Required
Vesterby, M., and K. S. Krupa. 2001. "Major Uses of Land in the United States, 1997." Pp. 60. Economic Research
Service, USDA. http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/sb973/.

Statistical Models

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Anselin, L. 1988. Model Validation in Spatial Econometrics: A Review and Evaluation of Alternative Approaches.
International Regional Science Review 11, 3:279-316.
—. 1988. Spatial econometrics: Methods and models. Kluwer Academic.
—. 1995. SpaceStat, A Software Program for the Analysis of Spatial Data, Version 1.80. Regional Research Institute,
West Virginia University.
—. 1995. Local Indicators of Spatial Association--LISA. Geographical Analysis 27:93-115.
—. 2000. GIS, Spatial Econometrics and Social Science Research. Journal of Geographical Systems 2, 1:11-15.
—. 2002. Under the hood : Issues in the specification and interpretation of spatial regression models. Agricultural
Economics 27, 3:247-267.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=GatewayURL&_method=citationSearch&_uoikey=B6T3V-474DP0Y-1&_origin=EM
Required
Anselin, L., and A. K. Bera. 1998. "Spatial Dependence in Linear Regression Models with an Introduction to Spatial
Econometrics." Pp. pages 237-89 in Handbook of applied economic statistics, edited by A. Ullah, and D.-E. A. e.
Giles. Textbooks and Monographs.
Anselin, L., and et al. 1996. Simple Diagnostic Tests for Spatial Dependence. Regional Science and Urban Economics 26,
1:77-104.
Bell, K. P., and N. E. Bockstael. 2000. Applying the Generalized-Moments Estimation Approach to Spatial Problems
Involving Microlevel Data. Review of Economics and Statistics 82, 1:72-82.
Bell, K. P., and E. G. Irwin. 2002. Spatially explicit micro-level modelling of land use change at the rural-urban interface.
Agricultural Economics 27, 3:217-232.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=GatewayURL&_method=citationSearch&_uoikey=B6T3V-472BJ99-1&_origin=EMF
Required
Case, A. 1991. Spatial patterns in household demand. Econometrica 59, 4:953-965.
—. 1992. Neighborhood influence and technological change. Regional science and urban economics 22:491-508.
Chomitz, K. M., and D. A. Gray. 1996. Roads, land use, and deforestation: A spatial model applied to Belize. The World
Bank Economic Review 10, 3:487-512. http://ideas.repec.org/p/wop/wobaac/1444.html. Required
Deininger, K., and B. Minten. 2002. Determinants of Deforestation and the Economics of Protection: An Application to
Mexico. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 84, 4: 943-960.
http://www.ingenta.com/isis/searching/ExpandTOC/ingenta?issue=infobike://bpl/ajae/2002/00000084/00000004&index=5&Web
Required
Geoghegan, J., S. C. Villar, P. Klepesis, P. M. Mendoza, Y. Ogneva-Himmelberger, R. R. Chowdhury, B. L. Turner II,
and C. Vance. 2001. Modeling tropical deforestation in the southern Yucatán peninsular region: comparing survey
and satellite data. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 85, 1-3:25-46.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6T3Y-433P6Y4-H&_user=10&_coverDate=06%2F30%2F2001&
Geoghegan, J., L. Wainger, and N. Bockstael. 1997. Spatial landscape indices in a Hedonic framework: An ecological
economics analysis using GIS. Ecological Economics 23:251-264.
Haining, R. 1994. Diagnostics for Regression Modeling in Spatial Econometrics. Journal of Regional Science 34,
3:325-41.
Irwin, E., and N. Bockstael. 2002. Interacting agents, spatial externalities, and the evolution of residential land use
patterns. Journal of Economic Geography 2, 1:31-54. Required
Kennedy, P. 1998. A Guide to Econometrics, 4th ed. MIT Press. A useful introductory reading; inaccurate in places
Kmenta, J. 1997. Elements of Econometrics, 2nd ed. University of Michigan Press. A good more advanced econometrics
textbook.
Lambin, E. F. 2000. Land-cover change trajectories in Southern Cameroon. Annals of the Association of American
Geographers 90, 3:467-494. http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/MODLUC_Course/PDF/E.%20Lambin.pdf.
Required
LeSage, J. P. 1997. Bayesian Estimation of Spatial Autoregressive Models. International Regional Science Review 20,
1-2:113-29.
Mertens, B., and E. F. Lambin. 1997. Spatial modelling of deforestation in southern Cameroon. Applied Geography 17,
2:143-162.
Müller, D., and M. Zeller. 2002. Land use dynamics in the central highlands of Vietnam: a spatial model combining
village survey data with satellite imagery interpretation. Agricultural Economics 27, 3:333-354.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=GatewayURL&_method=citationSearch&_uoikey=B6T3V-47285H2-1&_origin=EMF
Munroe, D., J. Southworth, and C. Tucker. 2001. The Dynamics of Land-Cover Change in Western Honduras: Spatial
Autocorrelation and Temporal Variation. Paper presented at the American Agricultural Economics Association
Annual Meeting, Chicago, IL, August 5-8. http://agecon.lib.umn.edu/cgi-bin/view.pl.
—. 2002. The dynamics of land-cover change in western Honduras: exploring spatial and temporal complexity.
Agricultural Economics 27, 3:355-369.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=GatewayURL&_method=citationSearch&_uoikey=B6T3V-47285H2-2&_origin=EMF
Munroe, D., and A. York. 2001. Jobs, houses and trees: Changing regional structure, local land-use patterns, and forest

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cover in Southern Indiana. Paper presented at the 48th North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association
International, Charleston SC, Nov. 17. http://php.indiana.edu/~dmunroe/RSAI_munroe.pdf. Under review,
Growth and Change
Nelson, G., and J. Geoghegan. 2002. Deforestation and land use change: sparse data environments. Agricultural Economics
27, 3:201-216.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=GatewayURL&_method=citationSearch&_uoikey=B6T3V-472JGYP-2&_origin=EMF
Nelson, G., and D. Hellerstein. 1997. Do roads cause deforestation? Using satellite images in econometric analysis of land
use. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 79:80-88.
http://www.ace.uiuc.edu/faculty/gnelson/papers/lu_paper/description.htm. Required
Nelson, G. C., V. Harris, and S. W. Stone. 2001. Deforestation, Land Use, and Property Rights: Empirical Evidence from
Darien, Panama. Land Economics 2:187-205.
Staal, S. J., I. Baltenweck, M. M. Waithaka, T. deWolff, and L. Njoroge. 2002. Location and uptake: integrated household
and GIS analysis of technology adoption and land use, with application to smallholder dairy farms in Kenya.
Agricultural Economics 27, 3:295-315.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=GatewayURL&_method=citationSearch&_uoikey=B6T3V-474GJ0H-2&_origin=EMF
Swinton, S. M. 2002. Capturing household-level spatial influence in agricultural management using random effects
regression. Agricultural Economics 27, 3:371-381.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=GatewayURL&_method=citationSearch&_uoikey=B6T3V-478R7KX-2&_origin=EM
Vance, C., and J. Geoghegan. 2002. Temporal and spatial modelling of tropical deforestation: a survival analysis linking
satellite and household survey data. Agricultural Economics 27, 3:295-315.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=GatewayURL&_method=citationSearch&_uoikey=B6T3V-474GJ0H-2&_origin=EMF
Walker, R. T., S. Perz, M. Caldas, and T. d. Silva. 2002. Land Use and Land Cover Change in Forest Frontiers: The Role
of Household Life Cycles. International Regional Science Review 25, 2:169-199. Required

Markov and Cellular Automata Models

Balzter, H., P. W. Braun, and W. Kohler. 1998. Cellular automata models for vegetation dynamics. Ecological Modelling
107, 2/3:113-125.
Batty, M. 1997. Cellular automata and urban form: A primer. Journal of the American Planning Association 63,
2:266-274. Required
Batty, M., Y. Xie, and Z. Sun. 1999. Modeling urban dynamics through GIS-based cellular automata. Computers,
Environment and Urban Systems 23, 3:205-233.
Clarke, K. C., S. Hoppen, and L. Gaydos. 1997. A self-modifying cellular automaton model of historical urbanization in
the San Francisco Bay area. Environment and Planning B 24, 2:247-261.
http://www.pion.co.uk/ep/epb/abstracts/b24/b240247.html. Required
Hegselmann, R. 1998. "Modeling social dynamics by cellular automata." Pp. 37-64 in Computer Modeling of Social
Processes, edited by W. B. G. Liebrand, A. Nowak, and R. Hegselmann. SAGE Publications.
Hogeweg, P. 1988. Cellular automata as a paradigm for ecological modelling. Applied Mathematics and Computation 27,
1:81-100.
Jenerette, G., and J. Wu. 2001. Analysis and simulation of land-use change in the central Arizona – Phoenix region, USA.
Landscape Ecology 16, 7:611-626. http://www.kluweronline.com/issn/0921-2973. Required
O'Sullivan, D., and P. M. Torrens. 2000. "Cellular models of urban systems." Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis,
University College, London. http://www.casa.ucl.ac.uk/cellularmodels.pdf.
O'Sullivan, D. 2001. Graph-cellular automata: a generalised discrete urban and regional model. Environment and Planning
B 28, 5:687-706.
Torrens, P. M. 2000. "How cellular models of urban systems work." Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University
College, London. http://www.casa.ucl.ac.uk/how_ca_work.pdf. Good general reference
Torrens, P. M., and D. O'Sullivan. 2001. Cellular automata and urban simulation: Where do we go from here?
Environment and Planning B 28, 2:163-168. Required
Webster, C. J., and F. Wu. 1999. Regulation, land-use mix, and urban performance. Part 1: theory. Environment and
Planning A 31, 8:1433 - 1442. http://www.pion.co.uk/ep/epa/abstracts/a31/a311433.html.
—. 1999. Regulation, land-use mix, and urban performance. Part 2: Simulation. Environment and Planning A 31,
9:1529 - 1545. http://www.pion.co.uk/ep/epa/abstracts/a31/a311529.html. Required
White, R., and G. Engelen. 1993. Cellular automata and fractal urban form: A cellular modeling approach to the evolution
of urban land-use patterns. Environment and Planning A 25, 8:1175-1199. Required
—. 1994. Cellular dynamics and GIS: Modelling spatial complexity. Geographical Systems 1, 3:237-253.
—. 1997. Cellular automata as the basis of integrated dynamic regional modelling. Environment and Planning B 24,
2:235-246. Required

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Wu, F. 1998. An experiment on the generic polycentricity of urban growth in a cellular city. Environment and Planning B
25:731-752.
Yeh, A. G.-O., and X. Li. 2002. A cellular automata model to simulate development density for urban planning.
Environment and Planning B 29, 3:431-450. http://www.pion.co.uk/ep/epb/abstracts/b29/b1288.html. Required

Optimization Models

Angelsen, A. 1999. Agricultural expansion and deforestation: modelling the impact of population, market forces and
property rights. Journal of Development Economics 58, 1:185-218.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VBV-3VGJHXG-9&_user=10&_coverDate=02%2F28%2F199
Required. Very mathematical.
Carpentier, C. L., S. A. Vosti, and J. Witcover. 2000. Intensified production systems on western Brazilian Amazon
settlement farms: could they save the forest? Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 82, 1-3: 73-88.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6T3Y-41P172D-7&_user=10&_coverDate=12%2F31%2F2000&
Required
Chuvieco, E. 1993. Integration of linear programming and GIS for land-use modeling. International Journal of
Geographical Information Systems 7, 1:71-83. Required
Cromley, R. G., and D. M. Hanink. 1999. Coupling land-use allocation models with raster GIS. Journal of Geographic
Systems 1:137-153.
Howitt, R. E. 1995. Positive mathematical programming. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 77, 2:329-42.
Oglethorpe, D. R., and J. R. O'Callaghan. 1995. Farm-level Economic Modelling within a River Catchment Decision
Support System. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management 38, 1: 93 - 106.
http://taylorandfrancis.metapress.com/app/home/contribution.asp?wasp=9cxkxmtvtre9dc2glftx&referrer=parent&backto=issue,7,1
Required. This is in a special issue devoted to the NELUP model
Parks, P. J., and B. C. Murray. 1994. Land attributes and land allocation: nonindustrial forest use in the Pacific
Northwest. Forest Science 40, 3:558-575. Bethesda, Md.
Weinberg, M., C. L. Kling, and J. E. Wilen. 1993. Water markets and water quality. American Journal of Agricultural
Economics 75, 2:278-91.
Yates, C. M., and T. Rehman. Forthcoming? "An application of an extension to Positive Mathematical Programming:
European Land Use Allocation Model."

Multi-Agent System Models

Balmann, A. 1997. Farm-based modelling of regional structural change. European Review of Agricultural Economics 25,
1:85-108.
Balmann, A., K. Happe, K. Kellermann, and A. Kleingarn. Forthcoming. "Adjustment costs of agri-environmental policy
switchings: A multi-agent approach." in Complexity and Ecosystem Management: The Theory and Practice of
Multi-agent Approaches, edited by M. A. Janssen. Edward Elgar Publishers.
Barreteau, O., F. Bousquet, and J. M. Attonaty. 2001. Role-playing games for opening the black box of multi-agent
systems: method and lessons of its application to Senegal River Valley irrigated systems. Journal of Artificial
Societies and Social Simulation 4, 2. http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/4/2/5.html.
Berger, T. 2001. Agent-based spatial models applied to agriculture: A simulation tool for technology diffusion, resource
use changes, and policy analysis. Agricultural Economics 25, 2-3:245-260. Required
Bousquet, F., I. Bakam, H. Proton, and C. L. Page. 1998. Cormas: Common-pool resources and multi-agent systems.
Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence 1416:826-837.
Bousquet, F., F. O. Barreteau, P. d'Aquino, M. Etienne, S. Boissau, S. Auber, C. L. Page, D. Babin, and J. C. Castella.
Forthcoming. "Multi-agent systems and role games: An approach for ecosystem co-management." in Multi-Agent
Approaches for Ecosystem Management, edited by M. A. Janssen. In preparation.
Deadman, P., and E. Schlager. Forthcoming. "Agent-based simulations of household decision making and land use change
near Altamira, Brazil." in Integrating Geographic Information Systems and Agent-Based Modeling Techniques for
Understanding Social and Ecological Processes, edited by H. R. Gimblett. Oxford University Press.
Epstein, J. M., and R. Axtell. 1996. Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Ground Up. Brookings
Institution Press.
Gilbert, N., and K. G. Troitzsch. 1999. Simulation for the Social Scientist. Open University Press.
Gimblett, H. R. (ed.). 2001. Integrating Geographic Information Systems and Agent-Based Modeling Techniques for
Understanding Social and Ecological Processes. Oxford University Press.
Hare, M., D. Medugno, J. Heeb, and C. Pahl-Wostl. 2002. "An Applied Methodology for Participatory Model Building of

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Agent-Based Models for Urban Water Management." Pp. 61-66 in 3rd Workshop on Agent-Based Simulation, edited by C.
Urban. SCS-European Publishing House.
Hoffmann, M., H. Kelley, and T. Evans. Forthcoming. "Simulating land-cover change in South-Central Indiana: An
agent-based model of deforestation and afforestation." in Complexity and Ecosystem Management: The Theory and
Practice of Multi-Agent Approaches, edited by M. A. Janssen. Edward Elgar Publishers.
Janssen, M. A. (ed.). Forthcoming. Complexity and Ecosystem Management: The Theory and Practice of Multi-Agent
Approaches. Edward Elgar Publishers.
Judd, K. L. 1997. Computational Economics and Economic Theory: Substitutes or Complements. Journal of Economic
Dynamics and Control 21, 6:907–942.
Judson, O. P. 1994. The rise of the individual-based model in ecology. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 9, 1:9-14.
Kohler, T. A. 2000. Dynamics in Human and Primate Societies. Oxford University Press.
Kohler, T. A., J. Kresl, C. V. West, E. Carr, and R. H. Wilshusen. 2000. "Be there then: A modeling approach to
settlement determinants and spatial efficiency among late ancestral pueblo populations of the Mesa Verde region,
U.S. Southwest." Pp. 145-178 in Dynamics in Human and Primate Societies, edited by T. A. Kohler, and G. J.
Gumerman. Oxford Univeristy Press.
Lansing, J. S., and J. N. Kremer. 1993. Emergent properties of Balinese water temple networks: Coadaptation on a rugged
fitness landscape. American Anthropologist 95, 1:97-114.
Ligtenberg, A., A. K. Bregt, M. Wachowicz, A. Beulens, and D. L. Kettenis. 2002. "Multi-agent Land Use Change
Simulation: Modeling Actors Perception." Pp. 93-98 in 3rd Workshop on Agent-Based Simulation, edited by C.
Urban. SCS-European Publishing House.
Lim, K., P. Deadman, E. Moran, E. Brondizio, and S. McCracken. 2001. "Agent-based simulations of household decision
making and land use change near Altamira, Brazil." in Integrating Geographic Information Systems and
Agent-Based Modeling Techniques for Understanding Social and Ecological Processes, edited by H. R. Gimblett.
Oxford University Press.
Lynam, T. Forthcoming. "Complex and useful but certainly wrong: A multi-agent agro-ecosystem model from the
semi-arid areas of Zimbabwe." in Complexity and Ecosystem Management: The Theory and Practice of
Multi-Agent Approaches, edited by M. A. Janssen. Edward Elgar Publishers.
Manson, S. M. 2000. Agent-based dynamic spatial simulation of land-use/cover change in the Yucatán peninsula, Mexico.
Paper presented at the Fourth International Conference on Integrating GIS and Environmental Modeling
(GIS/EM4), Banff, Canada,
http://www.tc.umn.edu/~manson/Resources/Manson_2000_GISEM4_ADSS_www.pdf. Required
—. Forthcoming. "The SYPR integrative assessment model: Complexity in development." in Final Frontiers:
Understanding Land Change in the Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region, edited by B. L. Turner II, D. Foster,
and J. Geoghegan. Claredon Oxford University Press.
Parker, D. C. 1999. "Landscape Outcomes in a Model of Edge-Effect Externalities: A Computational Economics
Approach." Santa Fe Institute. http://www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/Working-Papers/99-07-051.pdf.
Parker, D. C., T. Berger, and S. M. Manson. 2002. "Meeting the Challenge of Complexity: Proceedings of the Special
Workshop on Agent-Based Models of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change." CIPEC/CSISS.
http://www.csiss.org/maslucc/ABM-LUCC.htm.
—. 2002. "Agent-Based Models of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change: Report and Review of an International Workshop."
LUCC Focus 1. http://www.indiana.edu/~act/focus1/FinalABM11.7.02.pdf.
Parker, D. C., S. M. Manson, M. A. Janssen, M. Hoffmann, and P. Deadman. Forthcoming. Multi-Agent Systems for the
Simulation of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: A Review. Annals of the Association of American Geographers
93, 2. http://www.csiss.org/events/other/agent-based/papers/maslucc_overview.pdf. Required. (Not for student
presentation)
Parker, D. C., and V. Meretsky. Forthcoming. Measuring Pattern Outcomes in an Agent-Based Model of Edge-Effect
Externalities Using Spatial Metrics. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment.
http://php.indiana.edu/~dawparke/papers/aee_final/parker_text.pdf. Required
Rajan, K. S., and R. Shibasaki. 2000. "Land Use/Cover Changes and Water Resources - Experiences from AGENT-LUC
Model." Pp. 1-16. International Center for Disaster Mitigation Engineering (INCEDE), Institute of Industrial
Science, University of Tokyo. http://incede.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/reports/Report_19/Rajan.pdf.
Rouchier, J., F. Bousquet, M. Requier-Desjardins, and M. Antona. 2001. A multi-agent model for describing
transhumance in North Cameroon: Comparison of different rationality to develop a routine. Journal of Economic
Dynamics and Control 25:527-559.
Sanders, L., D. Pumain, H. Mathian, F. Guérin-Pace, and S. Bura. 1997. SIMPOP - a multiagent system for the study of
urbanism. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 24:287-305.
Schelling, T. 1971. Dynamic models of segregation. Journal of Mathematical Sociology 1:143-186.
Schelling, T. C. 1978. Mircomotives and Macrobehavior. W. W. Norton.
Torrens, P. M. 2001. "Can geocomputation save urban simulation? Throw some agents into the mixture, simmer and wait
. . ." University College, London, U.K.

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—. 2002. "New advances in urban simulation: Cellular automata and multi-agent systems as planning support tools." in
Planning Support Systems in Practice, edited by S. S. Geertman, J. Springer-Verlag. forthcoming
Trame, A., S. J. Harper, J. Aycrigg, and J. Westervelt. 1997. "The Fort Hood Avian Simulation Model: A Dynamic
Model of Ecological Influences on Two Endangered Species." U.S. Army, Corps of Engineers, CERL.
http://blizzard.gis.uiuc.edu/dsm_FHASM_frame.htm.
Westervelt, J. D., B. M. Hannon, S. Levi, and S. J. Harper. 1997. "A Dynamic Simulation Model of the Desert Tortoise
(Gopherus agassizii) Habitat in the Central Mojave Desert." U.S. Army, Corps of Engineers, CERL.
http://blizzard.gis.uiuc.edu/dsm_TORT_frame.htm.

Integrated Models

Batty, M., and Y. Xie. 1994. Modeling inside GIS: Part 1, Model structures, exploratory spatial data analysis and
aggregation. International Journal of Geographic Information Systems 8, 3:291-307.
—. 1994. Modeling inside GIS: Part 2, Selecting and calibrating urban models using ARC-INFO. International Journal of
Geographic Information Systems 8, 5:451-470.
Engelen, G. Forthcoming. "Development of a decision support system for the integrated assessment of policies related to
desertification and land degradation in the Mediterranean." in Climate change in the Mediterranean:
Socio-economic perspectives of impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation, edited by C. G. a. M. Shechter. Edward
Elgar Publishing Limited. Required
Engelen, G., R. White, and A. C. M. de Nijs. Forthcoming. Environment Explorer: a Spatial Policy Support Framework
for the Integrated Assessment of Socio-Economic and Environmental Policies in the Netherlands. Integrated
Assessment.
Landis, J., and M. Zhang. 1998. The second generation of the California Urban Futures Model. Part 2, Specification and
calibration results of the land-use change submodel. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 25,
6:795-824. http://www.pion.co.uk/ep/epb/abstracts/b25/b250795.html. Required
—. 1998. The second generation of the California Urban Futures Model: Part 1, Model logic and theory. Environment and
Planning B: Planning and Design 25, 5:657-666. http://www.pion.co.uk/ep/epb/abstracts/b25/b250657.html.
Pijanowski, B. C., D. G. Brown, G. Manik, and B. Shellito. 2002. Using Neural Nets and GIS to Forecast Land Use
Changes: A Land Transformation Model. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 26, 6:553-57.
http://www.msu.edu/~pijanows/ceus.pdf. Required. Many other related articles on Pijanowski's web site.
Strengers, B., R. Leemans, B. Eickhout, B. de Vries, and L. Bouwman. 2002. The land-use projections in the IPCC
SRES scenarios as simulated by the IMAGE 2.2 model. Geojournal.
http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/MODLUC_Course/PDF/B%20de%20Vries%20a.pdf. Required
Veldkamp, A., and L. O. Fresco. 1996. CLUE: A conceptual model to study the conversion of land use and its effects.
Ecological Modelling 85, 2/3:253-270.
Verburg, P. H., W. Soepboer, A. Veldkamp, R. Limpiada, V. Espaldon, and S. S. A. Mastura. 2002. Modelling the
spatial dynamics of regional land use: The Clue-S model. Environmental Management 30, 3:391-405.
http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/MODLUC_Course/PDF/P.%20Verbrug%20b.pdf. Required
Wang, Y., and X. Zhang. 2001. A dynamic modeling approach to simulating socioeconomic effects on landscape changes.
Ecological Modelling 1401, 1-2:141-162.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VBS-430NPPC-9&_user=10&_coverDate=05%2F30%2F2001
Required
White, R., and G. Engelen. 2000. High-resolution integrated modeling of spatial dynamics of urban and regional systems.
Computers, Environment, and Urban Systems 24:383-400.

Evaluating LUCC Model Performance

Bian, L. 1997. "Multiscale nature of spatial data in scaling up environmental models." Pp. 13-26 in Scale in Remote
Sensing and GIS, edited by D. A. Quattrochi, and M. F. Goodchild. Lewis Publishers.
Herold, M., and G. Menz. 2001. Landscape metric signatures (LMS) to improve urban landuse information derived from
remotely sensed data. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the 20th EARSeL Sympsium Remote Sensing in the
22st Century: A Decade of Trans-European Remote Sensing Cooperation, 14-16 June 2000, Dresden, Germany,
June 2001. http://www.geog.ucsb.edu/~mherold/publication.html. http://www.geog.ucsb.edu//
mherold/earsmenz.pdf
Heuvelink, G. 2002. Developments in statistical approaches to spatial uncertainty and its propagation. International
Journal of Geographical Information Science 16, 2:111 - 113.
Lam, N., and D. A. Quattrochi. 1992. On the issues of scale, resolution, and fractal analysis in the mapping sciences.

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Professional Geographer 44:88-98.

McGarigal, K., and B. J. Marks. 1994. "FRAGSTATS: Spatial Pattern Analysis Program for Quantifying Landscape
Structure." U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. Report
PNW-GTR-351
Ogneva-Himmelberger, Y. A. 1998. Exploring Empirical Diagnostic Modeling of Land-Use/Land-Cover: An Example
from Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region. Clark University.
Oreskes, N., K. Shrader-Frechette, and K. Belitz. 1994. Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models in
the earth sciences. Science 263:641-646. Required
Pontius, R. G., Jr. 2000. Quantification error versus location error in comparison of categorical maps. Photogrammetric
Engineering and Remote Sensing 66, 8:1011-1016. Required
Pontius, R. G., and L. Schneider. 2001. Land-use change model validation by a ROC method. Agriculture, Ecosystems
and Environment 85, 1-3:239-248. Required
Turner, M. G., R. Costanza, and F. Sklar. 1989. Methods to evaluate the performance of spatial simulation models.
Ecological Modelling 48, 1/2:1-18. Required

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