Indian Stock Market Decade of Growth 2010 2020 Report

Analysis by YADNYA
INDIAN STOCK MARKET

(2010-2020)
A Decade of Moderate Growth
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Presentation Flow
Market Cap Growth from 2011 to 2020 Top performing IPOs
Market in last 10 years Sales Growth – Top 10 Performers
SENSEX EPS Growth PAT Growth – Top 10 Performers
Share of top 100 companies in Mcap Valuations – PE Ratio
Listing/Delisting in last 10 years Valuations Trend
Top 10 Companies by Market Cap Debt Analysis
Top 10 Companies by Returns ROE vs Returns
Stocks Crossovers in Last Decade – BSE 500 ROE Trend
Crossovers – Small cap to Large Cap
Crossovers – Mid cap to Large Cap
Crossovers – Large Cap to Mid cap
Crossovers – Large Cap to Small cap
New Entrants
Sector – No. of Stocks Changes
Sector Index Performance
Learnings from the Report
• Markets give most of the returns in very short time. Majority of returns of
the decade came in 2014, 2017 and late 2020. Rest it was mostly flat.
• EPS growth of the decade has lagged. It was not a great year economically
for India with low GDP growths too
• Large Caps rule the market
• Lot of changes happen in 10 years, some of the favorite sectors in 2010
were out of favor in 2020 like Power & Crude Oil. Few new sectors like
Insurance entered the markets and owned it.
• There is a high correlation between PAT growth and Stock Gains.
• Some of the High Debt companies can give good returns too if they try to
reduce it like Tata Metaliks, Trident and Havells
MARKET MOVE IN
LAST DECADE

Market Cap Growth from 2011 to 2020
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Oct-19
Oct-20
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
• Currently, the total Mcap of Indian markets is around Rs.1.9x10^14
• The uptrend in market capitalization is predominantly seen in 2014, 2017 and late 2020
• 2014 : Modi Gov. win, Growth Budget anticipated by new Gov, RBI’s Repo rate cut (liquidity infusion in market & cheaper loans)
• 2017 : Robust DII inflow, Midcap & Smallcap Rally, Stronger Rupee helped FII stay in Indian market, Business optimism improved on stable
Gov & it boosted Infra projects, Cyclical sectors (Housing, Realty, Infra, Construction, Banking & Auto) went up, Heavy liquidity infusion in
stock market post demonetization
• Later 2020 : Strong V-shaped recovery in Economic activities post COVID lockdown, Better-than-expected financial performance by Indian
Corporates, High FII inflow in Indian markets, Rise in Weightage of India in MSCI Emerging market Index, Anticipation of strong growth
outlook ahead in FY22 & FY23 due to lower base effect in FY21
Market in last 10 years
120 Mcap to GDP Average
100
100
81 83
79 79
80 71
66 69
64
60 56
40
20
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
• Mcap to GDP is a valuation metric used to assess the valuation of the stock market. It is expressed as country’s total market
capitalization (value of all listed companies as a % of Nominal GDP)
• The 10 year average of the metric is 75. Thus, currently the market, where Mcap to GDP ratio is 100, seems to be considerably
overvalued as compared with the historical average valuation. The uptick in market valuation is mainly driven by strong optimism in
the market on V-shaped economic recovery, COVID vaccination drive and robust FII inflows into the Indian equities.
SENSEX EPS Growth
SENSEX EPS
1600
1488 1499
1500
1373
1400 1333 1358 1340 1357
1300
1179
1200
1109
1100 1024
1000
900
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
• EPS growth of SENSEX in last 10 years has been 6% (CAGR). As we will see later on, earnings play a major role in stock’s
performance

Share of top 100 companies in Mcap
Top 100 Rest
100%
24 23 18 21 20
27 27 28 30
80% 35
60%
40% 76 77 82 79 80
73 73 72 70
65
20%
0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
• Currently, top 100 companies represents 73% share of the total Mcap of all the Indian companies (listed)
• Thus, the total market cap of the listed universe is majorly contributed by the Large cap companies, due to
the availability of higher free-float market cap in large cap stocks (vs Midcap and Smallcap stocks)
Listing/Delisting in last 10 years
Listing Delisting
450 418
400
350 319
311 311
300
250 242
213
200
147 146
150
116 124 106
97 101
100
50 31 38
23 19 23 24 25
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

STOCK CHANGES IN
LAST DECADE

Top 10 Companies by Market Cap
Sr.
Company Name Sector 2020_Mcap 2010_Mcap CAGR Returns
No.
1 Reliance Industries Ltd. Crude Oil 1,343,724 345,012 15%
2 Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. IT 1,098,773 226,950 17%
3 HDFC Bank Ltd. Bank 784,759 110,998 22%
4 Hindustan Unilever Ltd. FMCG 561,346 68,322 23%
5 Infosys Ltd. IT 536,878 198,241 10%
6 HDFC Ltd. Finance 462,587 106,584 16%
7 Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. Bank 395,019 33,557 28%
8 ICICI Bank Ltd. Bank 364,204 131,679 11%
9 Bajaj Finance Ltd. Finance 318,181 2,582 62%
10 Bharti Airtel Ltd. Telecom 281,016 136,464 7%
• Bajaj Finance is a clear outlier among the top 10 stocks
• Bajaj Finance stock performance is mainly driven by the Robust Earnings visibility, Earnings growth potential of
its consumer finance business and its Data analytics-based business model used for cross selling
Top 10 Companies by Returns
Sr. No. Company Name Sector Returns (CAGR)
1 Avanti Feeds Ltd. FMCG 73%
2 Bajaj Finance Ltd. Finance 62%
3 Caplin Point Laboratories Ltd. Healthcare 61%
4 Vaibhav Global Ltd. Retailing 58%
5 Alkyl Amines Chemicals Ltd. Chemicals 55%
6 Astral Poly Technik Ltd. Plastic Products 54%
7 Tasty Bite Eatables Ltd. FMCG 54%
8 Deepak Nitrite Ltd. Chemicals 52%
9 PI Industries Ltd. Chemicals 51%
10 Ajanta Pharma Ltd. Healthcare 50%
Only Bajaj Finance was a mid cap company in 2011 while the rest were all small cap companies

CROSSOVERS IN
LAST DECADE

Stocks Crossovers in Last Decade – BSE 500
Year 2020 2020 2020
Market Cap Large Mid Small
2010 Large 55 37 8
2010 Mid 28 47 75
2010 Small 1 31 104
New Additions 16 35 64
The Stock crossovers is a matrix which indicates the number of upgrades and the
downgrades over the last decade (2010-2020)
Crossovers – Small cap to Large Cap (Upgrade)
Only one company was able to make the jump of Small cap to large cap
Year 2020 2020 2020 from 2010 to 2020 – PI Industries
Market • PI Industries is engaged in the manufacturing & distribution of Agro

Large Mid Small
Cap chemicals.
• The company has an added edge over its peer Indian agrochemical
2010 Large 55 37 8 manufacturers due to its knowledge partnership with Foreign
Manufacturers
• It customize the formulations according to Indian needs & sell at
2010 Mid 28 47 75 premium prices, thus enjoys high margins vs peers
In 2011, the company’s stock traded @ Rs.50 which is now around Rs.
2010 Small 1 31 104 2,100
New The company witnessed a sales growth of 20%(CAGR) and a net profit
16 35 64
Additions growth of 27%(CAGR) in last decade. For detailed analysis, Click here

Crossovers – Mid cap to Large Cap (Upgrade)
28 companies managed to jump from mid cap to large cap category in
Year 2020 2020 2020 last 10 years.
Market
Large Mid Small The most popular among them are Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Tech
Cap
Mahindra, Divis Lab, Britannia and Eicher Motors.
2010 Large 55 37 8
Bajaj twins and Eicher motors have been among the top performers
witnessing a growth of 62%(Bajaj Finance), 35%(Bajaj Finserv) and
2010 Mid 28 47 75
35%(Eicher Motors) in last decade.
2010 Small 1 31 104 As discussed earlier, there 2 most important factors which drives the
stock performance :
New 1. Earnings Visibility
16 35 64 2. Earnings Growth Potential
Additions

Crossovers – Large Cap to Mid cap (Downgrade)
Year 2020 2020 2020 37 companies that were a part of large cap category are now in mid
cap.
Market
Large Mid Small
Cap
Some popular names include: Thermax, Bank of India, Exide Industries,
Oil India, JSW Energy, BEL, NHPC and SAIL
2010 Large 55 37 8
Most of the companies in the list are PSU companies, where earnings
2010 Mid 28 47 75 visibility is there, but these companies lag behind in earnings growth,
which stimulates the stock performance
2010 Small 1 31 104

Also, Most of the other companies in the list are capital extensive,
where :
New • Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) is gauged periodically and
16 35 64
Additions • Heavily debt-ridden companies are not rewarded much

Crossovers – Large Cap to Small cap (Downgrade)
Year 2020 2020 2020
8 companies spiralled down to small cap from large cap category.
Market
Large Mid Small
Cap
As you can see, most of the companies are Capital-Intensive and
2010 Large 55 37 8 6 out of 8 are PSUs
2010 Mid 28 47 75 National

Mangalore
Aluminum NLC India IDFC Ltd.
Refinery
Company
2010 Small 1 31 104
Hindustan Suzlon Energy Engineers
MMTC Ltd.
Copper Ltd. India Ltd.
New
16 35 64
Additions

New Entrants
Year 2020 2020 2020
In 2020, there were 16 Similarly, there were 35
Market companies in the top 100 new additions in mid cap
Large Mid Small
Cap list which were listed after category and 64 in small
2010. cap.
2010 Large 55 37 8
2010 Mid 28 47 75
Most of these companies V-Mart Retail, Muthoot
2010 Small 1 31 104
(HDFC Life, ICICI Lombard, Finance and LTI were the
Bandhan Bank, ICICI Pru, most successful companies
SBI Life) belong to the BFSI among the 125 new
New sector. entrants.
16 35 64
Additions

SECTOR CHANGES IN
LAST DECADE

Sector – No. of Stocks Changes
Sectors No. of BSE 100 Stocks (Dec-20) No. of BSE 100 Stocks (Dec-10)
FMCG 11 6
Pharma & Healthcare 11 8
Bank 9 13
Automobile & Ancillaries 8 9
Finance 8 5
IT 7 6
Chemicals 6 2
Crude Oil 4 7
Power 4 8
Insurance 4 0
Construction Materials 3 3
Non - Ferrous Metals 3 5
Inds. Gases & Fuels 3 1
Telecom 2 2
Iron & Steel 2 4
Diversified 2 1
Realty 2 1
Trading 2 2
Mining 2 2
Capital Goods 2 7
Infrastructure 1 2
Retailing 1 0
Diamond & Jewellery 1 1
Logistics 1 2
Aviation 1 0
Media & Entertainment 0 2
Alcohol ©2021 Copyright of Yadnya Academy Pvt.0Ltd. | Redistribution Prohibited 1
Sector Index Performance
2010 2020 CAGR 2010 PE 2020 PE
Pharma &
2859 7631 10.3% -* 39.8
Healthcare
Bank 11855 31225 10.2% 20 30.1
FMCG 9424 34391 13.8% -* 44.5
Auto 4213 9272 8.2% 22 305
Finance 4763 15184 12.3% 24.5 30.8
IT 7492 24456 12.6% 29.3 33
* Data Not Available ©2021 Copyright of Yadnya Academy Pvt. Ltd. | Redistribution Prohibited
Top performing IPOs
Company Name Sector IPO Return (x Times Growth)
V-Mart Retail Ltd. Retailing Feb-13 7.6

Muthoot Finance Ltd. Finance May-11 4.2
Avenue Supermarts Ltd. Retailing Mar-17 3.0
TeamLease Services Ltd. Miscellaneous Feb-16 3.0
Larsen & Toubro Infotech Ltd. IT Jul-16 2.6
Aavas Financiers Ltd. Finance Oct-18 2.6
Future Consumer Ltd. Trading May-11 2.4
Fine Organic Industries Ltd. Chemicals Jul-18 2.4
L&T Finance Holdings Ltd. Finance Aug-11 2.3
as on Dec 20
The returns are based on their listing price, i.e. had you invested Rs. 100 in V-Mart on the day it was
listed, your investment in 2020 would have Rs. 760

COMPANY FINANCIALS
CHANGES

Sales Growth – Top 10 Performers
Rank Company Name Sales CAGR Stock Return (CAGR)
1 Bajaj Finserv Ltd. 49% 35%
2 Avanti Feeds Ltd. 46% 73%
3 Bajaj Finance Ltd. 40% 62%
4 Aegis Logistics Ltd. 37% 24%
5 Sunteck Realty Ltd. 36% 4%
6 Phoenix Mills Ltd. 32% 16%
7 Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. 31% 11%
8 Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. 29% 21%
9 Vedanta Ltd. 29% 7%
10 Gujarat State Petronet Ltd. 29% 6%
The table represents companies with highest sales growth in 2011-20.

We can observe that there is a strong positive correlation between sales growth and stock returns
PAT Growth – Top 10 Performers
Stock Return
Rank Company Name 2020_PATM 2010_PATM PAT_CAGR
(CAGR)
1 Bajaj Finance Ltd. 20% 10% 50% 62%
2 IOL Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals 19% 3% 43% 44%
3 Caplin Point Laboratories Ltd. 25% 7% 42% 61%
4 PVR Ltd. 1% 0% 42% 34%
5 Deepak Nitrite Ltd. 14% 3% 41% 52%
6 La Opala RG Ltd. 31% 4% 41% 42%
7 Maharashtra Scooters Ltd. 1170% 188% 36% 25%
8 Cholamandalam Investment Ltd. 12% 6% 35% 31%
9 TVS Motor Company Ltd. 3% 1% 35% 21%
10 KEI Industries Ltd. 5% 1% 34% 36%

PAT Growth
Earnings (Profit after tax) is the back bone of a

company’s financial health.
Thus, bottom line analysis becomes extremely

important while selecting a company.
The correlation of PAT growth with stock returns of the

top 500 companies is around 0.65 which is quite strong.
We also see a significant increase in PATM from 2010 to

2020 of the top performing stocks.

Valuations – PE Ratio
Returns
Sr. No. Company Name 2010_PE 2020_PE
(CAGR)
1 Reliance Industries Ltd. 16.2 32.1 15%
2 Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. 25.6 38.8 17%
3 HDFC Bank Ltd. 27.3 26.3 22%
4 Hindustan Unilever Ltd. 26.8 78.8 23%
5 Infosys Ltd. 27.1 30.8 10%
6 Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd. 22.6 29.3 16%
7 Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. 21.5 40.8 28%
8 ICICI Bank Ltd. 21.0 26.9 11%
9 Bajaj Finance Ltd. 10.4 65.5 62%
10 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 23.6 - 7%
• Valuation analysis is difficult as it is industry specific, hence we have mentioned PE of top 10 companies by Market cap
• It indicates that good companies manage to give decent returns irrespective of their valuations, thus companies with
strong earnings visibility and earnings growth enjoys premium valuation
Valuations Trend
PE Ratio (BSE 500)
35
30.0
30
26.6 25.9
24.3 24.7
25
21.0
20 17.7 18.4 18.0
15.7
15
10
5
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
• The graph clearly indicates that valuation of the market is currently at its highest in 2020.
• Note: PE of 2020 should also consider the reduced Earnings due to Covid
• While, the PE ratio for as on February 9, 2021 is around 42, indicating market is currently
trading at a decadal high valuations, due to high market optimism and the lower EPS base
Debt Analysis
Stock Returns
Sr. No. Company Name Market cap (Rs. Cr) 2010_D/E 2020_D/E • Companies which
(CAGR)
1 Bombay Dyeing 1,605 8.4 47.7 -2% reduced the debt over
last 10 years have been
2 Wockhardt Ltd. 2,601 6.0 1.2 4%
rewarded by the market
3 Tata Metaliks Ltd. 1,745 4.7 0.2 18%
very well
4 Tata Motors Ltd. 56,961 4.4 1.9 -2% • The stock performance
5 Jindal Stainless Ltd. 1,903 4.2 1.5 6% ie. CAGR returns are the
6 Alok Industries Ltd. 412 3.9 -2.4 18% clear indication of the
7 Fortis Healthcare Ltd. 10,048 3.8 0.2 7% same
8 Trident Ltd. 3,419 3.4 0.6 30% • Market always prefer
9 MMTC Ltd. 2,820 3.3 4.2 -28% debt-free or low debt
10 Welspun India Ltd. 4,943 3.2 1.2 29% companies (in case of
11 GMR Infrastructure Ltd. 12,585 3.1 -14.0 -1% Capital-intensive sector)
12 Adani Enterprises Ltd. 22,860 2.9 0.7 -3% • The effective utilization
13 Havells India Ltd. 40,674 2.7 0.0 28% of the Debt Capital
drives the profitability
14 TV18 Broadcast Ltd. 3,643 2.6 0.5 9%
growth, thereby offering
15 Rain Industries Ltd. 3,352 2.5 1.6 14% good stock performance
16 Dish TV India Ltd. 2,362 2.5 0.5 -11% • Return on capital
17 Ashoka Buildcon Ltd. 2,893 2.4 15.1 5% employed (ROCE) is also
18 Tata Steel Ltd. 56,323 2.4 1.6 2% assessed here along
19 Britannia Industries Ltd. 73,120 2.3 0.4 33% with D/E ratio
20 Power Grid Corporation Of India Ltd. 102,251 2.3 3.0 8%
Debt Analysis
The Debt table represents the companies with highest (top 20) DE ratio in
2010.
Tata Metaliks, Trident, Havels, Welspun and Britannia are outliers, who despite
having high DE ratio performed well.
This was because their management was focused on reducing their debt which
can be seen from their 2020 figures.
Thus, only companies which had high DE ratio in 2010 AND were unable to
reduce it in last 10 years have performed poorly on stock market.

ROE vs Returns
Sr. No. Company Name ROE_ Avg Returns (CAGR) • ROE is an efficiency metric, which
assesses how much return a company
1 Hindustan Unilever Ltd. 92.1 23% offered on its Equity capital
• The table represents companies with
2 Castrol India Ltd. 79.9 1% highest ROE avg. along with their 10 Yrs
stock returns.
3 Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd. 78.0 14%
4 Hawkins Cookers Ltd. 59.8 16%
5 Nestle India Ltd. 57.8 17%
6 Page Industries Ltd. 52.6 34%
7 Britannia Industries Ltd. 46.0 33%
8 VST Industries Ltd. 41.4 20%
9 Hero MotoCorp Ltd. 40.8 5%
10 CRISIL Ltd. 39.6 12%

ROE vs Returns
ROE Returns
There seems to be a weak correlation between
ROE and share returns
X > 40 18% (= 0.3) : especially for companies with high ROE.
30 < x < 40 25%
However, as we can see from the table, Returns

20 < x < 30 21% drop significantly when ROE falls below 10%.
10 < x < 20 13%

Note that ROE is an Industry specific parameter.
Thus Investment decisions cannot be taken solely
< 10 6%
on this parameter.

ROE Trend
Most businesses are cyclical in character. However, most of them do well when the
economy is on the upswing. Thus, at the peak of an economic boom most sectors record an
ROE>13%. Nonetheless, for the last 7 years, that number is down to between 7 and 11.
ROE>13 ROE<13
100%
80% 15
20
24 26 26 26
60% 27 27 27
30
40%
22
20% 17
13 11 11 11
10 10 10
7
0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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Analysis by YADNYA

INDIAN STOCK MARKET

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Market Cap Large Mid Small

2010 Small 1 31 104

Market • PI Industries is engaged in the manufacturing & distribution of Agro

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2010 Small 1 31 104

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2010 Mid 28 47 75 National

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Bank 11855 31225 10.2% 20 30.1

FMCG 9424 34391 13.8% -* 44.5

Auto 4213 9272 8.2% 22 305

Finance 4763 15184 12.3% 24.5 30.8

IT 7492 24456 12.6% 29.3 33

V-Mart Retail Ltd. Retailing Feb-13 7.6

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The table represents companies with highest sales growth in 2011-20.

2 IOL Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals 19% 3% 43% 44%

3 Caplin Point Laboratories Ltd. 25% 7% 42% 61%

4 PVR Ltd. 1% 0% 42% 34%

5 Deepak Nitrite Ltd. 14% 3% 41% 52%

6 La Opala RG Ltd. 31% 4% 41% 42%

7 Maharashtra Scooters Ltd. 1170% 188% 36% 25%

8 Cholamandalam Investment Ltd. 12% 6% 35% 31%

9 TVS Motor Company Ltd. 3% 1% 35% 21%

10 KEI Industries Ltd. 5% 1% 34% 36%

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Earnings (Profit after tax) is the back bone of a

Thus, bottom line analysis becomes extremely

The correlation of PAT growth with stock returns of the

We also see a significant increase in PATM from 2010 to

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©2021 Copyright of Yadnya Academy Pvt. Ltd. | Redistribution Prohibited

4 Hawkins Cookers Ltd. 59.8 16%

5 Nestle India Ltd. 57.8 17%

6 Page Industries Ltd. 52.6 34%

7 Britannia Industries Ltd. 46.0 33%

8 VST Industries Ltd. 41.4 20%

9 Hero MotoCorp Ltd. 40.8 5%

10 CRISIL Ltd. 39.6 12%

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30 < x < 40 25%

However, as we can see from the table, Returns

10 < x < 20 13%

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Personalized Financial Simplest Income Tax DIY Financial Planning

A Financial Education &

Topics helpful in managing Ready made Portfolios

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