State Probability Martin Return

Pi Ri Ri * Pi
Strong 0.3 100% 0.3
Normal 0.4 15% 0.06
Weak 0.3 -70% -0.21
Expected Return 0.15
Variance
Standard Deviation

Stock UBL
Ri Pi (Ri)(Pi) (Ri - R )2(Pi)
-0.15 0.1 -0.015 0.00576
-0.03 0.2 -0.006 0.00288
0.09 0.4 0.036 0
0.21 0.2 0.042 0.00288
0.33 0.1 0.033 0.00576
1 0.09 0.01728
variance 0.01728
Standard Deviation 13.15%
Deviation
(Ri - E(R))2 * P
0.22
-
0.22

0.43
65.84%