FURTHER MATHEMATICS - TIME SERTES EXAM PRACTICE The following information relates 10 Questions 1, Zand 3, [month Jan] Feb | Mar ‘Api [May [June [uly | Aug [Sept [Oat [Nov [Dee [seasonal index [7.30 [1.21 [1 00 055 [oss [oss [oss [os [096 038 [107 ‘The table shows the seasonal indices for the monthly unemployment numbers for workers in a regional town. Question 1 ‘The seasonal index for October is missing from the table. ‘The value of the missing seasonal index for October is A. 093 B. 095 c. 096 D. 098 E103 Question 2% ‘The actual number of unemployed in the regional town in September is 330. ‘The deseasonalised nursber of unemployed in September is closest to prope 310 344 351 37 640 Question 3 ‘A trend line that can be used to forecast the desensonitlised mumber of unemployed workers in the regional town for the first nine months of the year is given by deseasonalised number of unemployed = 373.3 ~ 3.38 eronth number where month 1 is January, month 2 is Febrosry, and so on. ‘The actual number of unemployed for June is predicted to be closest to 308 353 316 393 ato Question + ‘The table below displays the total monthly rainfall (in mm) in a reservoir catchment area over @ one-year period, month | Jan | Feb | Mar April Vay [ine [ay [Aus [See [Oa [Nev [Dee] rains [9 [65 [35 99 75 [90 [133] 196 [106 [ss [76 176 ‘Using thee mean moving average smoothing, the smoothed value forthe total rainfall in Apri is lose to BYyORP 65 66 0 1 88 JThe foliowing information relates to Question 5 “The time series plot below shows the revere from sales (indollas) each month made by @ Queensland souvent shop over @ three-year period 20.000 (DOE HE HAE TTT 15000 fh | reremve tars) 10000 7 o aia oath Question 5 This ime series plot indicates that, over the three-year peviod, evenue from sales each month showed A. no overall trend, B. uoconelation positive seve D. aninereasing tend only. Ean aereasing tend with seasonal variation Question 6 ‘The seasonal index for heaters in winter is 1.25 ‘To correct for seasonality, the actual heater sales in winter should be ‘A. reduced by 20%: B. increased by 20%, CC. reduced by 25%. D. increased by 25%. E, reduced by 75%.“ine fottowing wyormetion retates to tyusstions 8 ena z “The time series plot below shows the number of users each month of an online belp service over a twelve month period. 390) K 3804 — ay Rk AN number of users 360 350 1 ¥ o i 23 4 $ 6 7 € 9 WU t month number Question ‘The time series plot has A. notrend B. no variability. C. seasonality only, D. an increasing trend with seasonality. Ean increasing trend only. Question B ‘The data values used to construct the time series plot are givea below. Mots |? ]2]3]¢{[s])e«]7][s]ofwf{ul] ne number Number | 346 | 353 | 354 | 356 | 373 | 353 | 364 | 368 | 375 | 359 | 388 | 378 of users } A four-point moving mean with centsing is used to smooth timeline series. ‘Tne smoothed value of the mimber of users in month number 5 is closest to A. 357 B. 359 c. 360 D. 365 zo Question A least squates regression line is fitted to the time series plot, ‘The equation of this least squares regression line is umber of users = 346 + 2.77 x month monber Let moath munber i = January 2007, month number 2 = February 2007, and so on. Using the above infomation, the cegression line predicts that the number of users i December 2009 will be closest to AL 379 B 4t2 c. 443 D. 446 E 448Question (> “The revenue ftom sales (in dolla) each month forthe first year of © three-year period is shown below. Month Revenue ($) Jenuary 1236 February 1567 ‘March 1240 pail 2078 May "2308 Sune 2512 July 3510 Avgust 4334 September 4397 October 4478 [November 7034 December 8978 IF this information is used to determine the seasonal index for each month, the seasonal index for September Wl be closest to 0.80 0.82 116 22 126 BOOM P Question |} a, Table 2 shows the seasoual indices for rainfall in summer, autumn and winter. Complete the table by calculating te seasonal index for spring. ‘Table2, Sonsonal indices summer autunan ‘winter spring 078 1.05 107 Vimark b. In 2008, a total of 188 mm of rain fell during summer: ‘Using the appropriate seasonal index in Table 2, determine the deseasonalised value for the surumer rainfall in 2008, Write your answer correct to the nearest millimetre, 1 mark c. What does a seasonal index of 1.05 tell vs about the rainfall in autumn? Lmatk