12 FURTHER MATHEMATICS

TIME SERIES EXAM PRACTICE (2)

Question 1

The time series plot below shows the number of days that it rained in a town each month during 2011.

Using five-median smoothing, the smoothed time series plot will most look like
Use the following information to answer Questions 2 and 3

The time series plot below displays the number of guests staying at a holiday resort during summer,
autumn, winter and spring for the years 2007 to 2012 inclusive.

Question 2

Which one of the following best describes the pattern in the time series?

A. random variation only

B. decreasing trend with seasonality
C. seasonality only
D. increasing trend only
E. increasing trend with seasonality

Question 3

The table below shows the data from the time series plot for the years 2007 and 2008.

Year Season Number of guests

2007 summer 390
autumn 126
winter 85
spring 130
2008 summer 460
autumn 136
winter 86
spring 142

Using four-mean smoothing with centring, the smoothed number of guests for winter 2007 is closest to
A. 85
B. 107
C. 183
D. 192
E. 200
Use the following information to answer Questions 4 and 5
The table below shows the long-term average rainfall (in mm) for summer, autumn, winter and spring.
Also shown are the seasonal indices for summer and autumn.
The seasonal indices for winter and spring are missing.

Season
Summer Autumn Winter Spring
Long-term average rainfall (mm) 52.0 54.5 48.8 61.3
Seasonal index 0.96 1.01

Question 4
The seasonal index for spring is closest to
A. 0.90
B. 1.03
C. 1.13
D. 1.15
E. 1.17

Question 5
In 2011, the rainfall in autumn was 48.9 mm.
The deseasonalised rainfall (in mm) for autumn is closest to
A. 48.4
B. 48.9
C. 49.4
D. 50.9
E. 54.0

Question 6
A trend line was fitted to a deseasonalised set of quarterly sales data for 2012.
The seasonal indices for quarters 1, 2 and 3 are given in the table below.
The seasonal index for quarter 4 is not shown.

Quarter number 1 2 3 4
Seasonal index 1.2 0.7 0.8

The equation of the trend line is

deseasonalised sales = 256 000 + 15 600 × quarter number

Using this trend line, the actual sales for quarter 4 in 2012 are predicted to be closest to
A. $222 880
B. $244 923
C. $318 400
D. $382 080
E. $413 920
Question 7
The seasonal index for headache tablet sales in summer is 0.80.
To correct for seasonality, the headache tablet sales figure for summer should be
A. reduced by 80%
B. reduced by 25%
C. reduced by 20%
D. increased by 20%
E. increased by 25%

Question 8
The table below shows the number of broadband users in Australia for each of the years from
2004 to 2008.

Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Number 1 012 000 2 016 000 3 900 000 4 830 000 5 140 000

A two-point moving mean, with centring, is use to smooth the time series.
The smoothed value for the number of broadband users in Australia in 2006 is

A. 2 958 000
B. 3 379 600
C. 3 455 500
D. 3 661 500
E. 3 900 000

Question 9
A garden supplies outlet sells water tanks.
The monthly seasonal indices for the revenue from the sale of water tanks are given below.
The seasonal index for September is missing.

Seasonal index
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
1.26 0.96 0.74 0.48 0.31 0.39 0.75 1.55 1.32 1.25 1.58

The revenue from the sale of water tanks in September 2009 was $104 500.
The deseasonalised revenue for September 2009 is closest to

A. $42 800
B. $74 100
C. $104 500
D. $141 000
E. $147 300
Question 10
Table 2 shows the Australian gross domestic product (GDP) per person, in dollars, at five yearly intervals
for the period 1980 to 2005.
Table 2
Year 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
GDP 20 900 22 300 25 000 26 400 30 900 33 800

a. Complete the time series plot above by plotting the GDP for the years 2000 and 2005.
1 mark

b. Briefly describe the general trend in the data.

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1 mark
In Table 3, the variable year has been rescaled using 1980 = 0, 1985 = 5 and so on.
The new variable is time.
Table 3
Year 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Time 0 5 10 15 20 25
GDP 20 900 22 300 25 000 26 400 30 900 33 800

c. Use the variables time and GDP to write down the equation of the least squares regression line
that can be used to predict GDP from time.
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2 marks

d. In the year 2007, the GDP was $34 900. Find the error in the prediction if the least squares
regression line calculated in part c. is used to predict GDP in 2007.
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2 marks