FC 301 – STATISTICS

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Worksheet 1- Answers- Time series

1 The owner of some company is studying non attendance among his employees. His
workforce is small, consisting of only five employees. For the last three years he
recorded the following number of employee absences, in days, for each quarter.

Year Quarter
I II III IV
2004 4 10 7 3
2005 5 12 9 4
2006 6 16 12 4

(a) On the graph paper provided, draw and label a Time Series graph to show the
above data.

(b) Calculate the appropriate moving average figures from the above table.

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(c) Plot the centred moving average figures on the Time Series graph and use
these points to draw a trend line.

(d) Use your trend line to predict number of employee absences in Q2 2007.

Number of employee absences in Q2 2007 will be 11.

(e) Analyse what your Time Series graph shows about the number of employee
absences.
Example comments: Overall trend is increasing; Highest number of
employee absences was in Q2 of 2006; Lowest number of employee
absences was in Q4 of 2004; Q2 of every year always sees the most
number of employee absences……

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(f) Forecast the number of employee absences for quarter 2 (Q2) of 2007 using
the formula.

9 . 5−6 . 125
Factor= =0 . 482
7
Predicted trend = 9.5 + 40.482 = 11.428  11

2 A company sells a variety of electronic equipment and home appliances. For the last
four years the following quarterly sales (in millions £) were reported:

Year Quarter
I II III IV
2003 5.3 4.1 6.8 6.7
2004 4.8 3.8 5.6 6.8
2005 4.3 3.8 5.7 6.0
2006 5.6 4.6 6.4 5.9

(a) On the graph paper provided, draw and label a Time Series graph to show the
above data.
(b) Calculate the appropriate moving average figures from the above table.
(c) Plot the centred moving average figures on the Time Series graph and use
these points to draw a trend line.
(d) Analyse what your Time Series graph shows about the quarterly sales of
electronic equipment and home appliances.

3 A village in Colorado contains shops, restaurants and motels. The village has two
peak seasons – winter, for skiing on the mountain slopes, and summer, for tourists
visiting parks. The number of visitors (in thousands) by quarter for three years is
given below:

Year Quarter
I II III IV
2002 117.0 80.7 129.6 76.1
2003 118.6 82.5 121.4 77.0
2004 114.0 84.3 119.9 75.0

(a) On the graph paper provided, draw and label a Time Series graph to show the
above data.
(b) Calculate the appropriate moving average figures from the above table.
(c) Plot the moving average figures on the Time Series graph and use these points
to draw a trend line.
(d) Use your trend line to predict how many visitors there would be in Q2 of
2005.

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(e) Analyse what your Time Series graph shows about the number of visits to the
village.

4 The table shows the number of units of electricity used each quarter by a householder
over a period of 3 years.

Year Quarter
I II III IV
2009 680 810 470 740
2010 640 850 420 750
2011 970 880 490 760

(a) Plot these values on the graph paper provided.

(b) Calculate centred moving averages.
(c) Plot the centred moving averages on your graph.
(d) Draw in the trend line.
(e) Comment on the trend in the units of electricity used.

5 Lizzie has the following information about the oil bills for her home over the period
from 2001 to 2002.

Year 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter

2010 222 120 58 172
2011 234 128 64 182

(a) Plot these quarterly bills as a time series.

(b) Work out the centred moving averages.
(c) On the same axes as the time series, plot the centred moving averages and
draw the trend line.
(d) Make four comments about the variations in Lizzie’s oil bills from 2011 to
2011.

6 The table shows the numbers of people, in hundreds, going to a small cinema for 12
consecutive quarters.

Year Quarter

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I II III IV
2009 40 95 140 65
2010 45 100 145 70
2011 55 105 141 87

(a) On the graph paper provided, draw and label a Time Series graph to show the
above data.

Cinema Attendance
150

140

N 130
u
m
b 120
e
r 110
o
f 100

p
e 90
o
p
l 80
e
70
i
n
60
1
0
0 50
s
40

30
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Time

(b) Calculate the appropriate moving average figures from the above table.

(c) Plot the centred moving average figures on the Time Series graph and use
these points to draw a trend line.

On the graph above

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(d) Analyse what your Time Series graph shows about the number of people
going to small cinema.

Example comments: Overall trend is slightly increasing; Highest number

of people was in Q3 of 2009; Lowest number of visitors was in Q1 of 2008;
Q3 of every year always sees the most number of people …..

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