Covid -19 Pandemic - A challenge for India

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has declared that the new coronavirus
outbreak is a public health emergency of international concern, officials announced
in January, 2020. novel corona virus (2019-nCoV) originating in Wuhan, China, has
spread to 24 more countries alarming public health authorities across the world.
More than 4,900 people have died and over 132,000 have been infected globally,
according to the WHO on 13 march, 2020. Gradually it affected whole world and
India being one of the largest country with such a huge population also severely
affected by same. India, which has the second-largest population in the world is
suffering severely from COVID-19 disease. By May 18th, India investigated ∼1 lakh
(0.1million) infected cases from COVID-19, and as of 11th July the cases equalled 8
lakhs. Social distancing and lockdown rules were employed in India, which however
had an additional impact on the economy, human living, and environment. Where a
negative impact was observed for the economy and human life, the environment got
a positive one.

Effects of Pandemic and its Impact on the Country at large.

The countrywide lockdown has brought nearly all economic activities to

an abrupt halt. The disruption of 13demand and supply forces are likely to
continue even after the lockdown is lifted. It will take time for the economy to
return to a normal state and even then social distancing measures will continue for
as long as the health shock plays out. All most all the sectors and fields of the works
are affected due to this pandemic.

Although all businesses have been affected by the pandemic, the MSME
sector would be particularly worse hit by reduced cash flows caused by the
nationwide lockdown. Their supply chain has been disrupted, and they have been
adversely affected by the exodus of migrant workers, restrictions in the availability
of raw materials, by the disruption to exports and imports and also by the
widespread travel bans, closure of malls, hotels, theatres and educational
institutions etc. This, in turn, have massively hampered the MSME businesses. A
recent survey in MSMEs by the All India Manufacturers Organisation (AIMO, June
2020) shows that 35% of MSMEs and 43% of the self-employed said that they see no
chance of recovery in their businesses and have begun shutting down their
operations. As a consequence, hundreds of thousands of people who work for these
small businesses may endup with job and salary losses.

Sector-wise impact on Indian industry

Chemical Industry: Some chemical plants have been shut down in China. So
there will be restrictions on shipments/logistics. It was found that 20% of the
production has been impacted due to the disruption in raw material supply. China
is a major supplier of Indigo that is required for denim. Business in India is likely to
get affected so people securing their supplies. However, it is an opportunity. US and
EU will try and diversify their markets.

Auto Industry: Its impact on Indian companies will vary and depend upon the
extent of the business with China. China’s business no doubt is affected. However,
current levels of the inventory seem to be sufficient for the Indian industry. If the
shutdown in China continues then it is expected to result in an 8-10% contraction of
Indian auto manufacturing in 2020.

Electronics Industry: The major supplier is China in electronics being a final

product or raw material used in the electronic industry. India’s electronic industry
may face supply disruptions, production, reduction impact on product prices due to
heavy dependence on electronics component supply directly or indirectly and local
manufacturing.

Foreign Trade: China has been India’s largest source of imports since 2004-05,
shows data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) database. In
2018-19, the latest period for which annual data is available, it had a share of 13.7%
in India’s total imports. Any major disruption in the Chinese economy can disrupt
these imports and hence both production processes and supply of consumer goods in
India.

Effect on Poultry: The poultry industry in different parts of the country has been hit
hard amid rumours that the novel coronaviruscan transmitted through
consumption ofchicken, the prices of which have fallen considerably as a result.
about two crore people employed in the poultry industry across the country have
been impacted. People were avoiding consumption of meat, fish, chicken, and egg
etc. Due to the fall in demand, wholesale price of chicken had dropped by as much
as 70 per cent.

As briefly discussed earlier, the economic slowdown could aggravate

malnutrition. The loss of daily wage earnings or joblessness can make it difficult to
buy even basic food items in people belonging to low SES. The inadvertent fallout of
this would be the deleterious effect on the most vulnerable population namely the
children and the pregnant women; thus negating previous gains of maternal and
child health and nutrition-related National Programs. Roberton et al. modelled
three scenarios in which the coverage of essential maternal (e.g. antenatal care,
childbirth care) and child (early childhood vaccination) health interventions is
projected to reduce by 9·8–51·9% and the prevalence of wasting would increase by
10–50% in low- and middle-income countries. The authors emphasised that even in
the least severe scenario (coverage reductions of 9·8–18·5% and wasting increase by
10%) over a period of 6 months would result in the substantial additional child and
maternal deaths, 2,53,500 and 12,200, respectively. Another important upcoming
health issue is mental health. Increase in chronic stress, anxiety, depression,
alcohol dependence, self-harm and heightened physical abuse (domestic violence)
has been reported as a consequence of the lockdown .

Overall, a setback in the progress made by the National Programs and worsening of
health indices are real possibilities in India.
Sources & References

1) https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-
reports/20200308-sitrep-48-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=16f7ccef_4
2) https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/india-reports-
75-coronavirus-cases-and-1-death/articleshow/74607818.
3) https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/trade-impact-of-coronavirus-
for-india-estimated-at-348-mn-un-report/article30988253.ece#
4) https://www.livemint.com/
5) https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/coronavirus-
chicken-prices-fall-poultry-industry-affected/articleshow/74546189.
6) Dejongh F. Protecting the most vulnerable children from the impact of
coronavirus: an agenda for action.
https://www.unicef.org/coronavirus/agenda-for-action [Internet]. [cited 2020
Apr 23].
7) Roberton T., Carter E.D., Chou V.B., Stegmuller A.R., Jackson B.D., Tam Y.
Early estimates of the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on
maternal and child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: a
modelling study. Lancet Glob Health. 2020 May 12
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7217645/ [Internet] [cited
2020 May 19];
8) Moses N.V. Covid-19: India is staring at a mental health crisis. Hind Today.
2020 https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/covid-19-india-is-staring-at-a-
mental-health-crisis/story-hmBOzUYsbo3SmtlWilmBzL.html
9) Mail Today Bureau April 27 2020UPDATED:, Ist 2020 04:45. Domestic
violence spikes in lockdown, govt told to step in.
https://www.indiatoday.in/mail-today/story/domestic-violence-spikes-in-
lockdown-govt-told-to-step-in-1671460-2020-04-27