Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Key Words more accurate than CG. In healthy patients, in subjects with
Cockcroft-Gault formula Modification of diet in renal normal SCr and in elderly patients, MDRD was not superior.
disease formula Glomerular filtration rate Chronic kidney Based on the risk of misclassifying by 62 CKD stages, neither
disease Creatinine clearance formula could be safely applied in diabetic, low body mass
index, advanced liver disease, chronic heart failure, or hospi-
talized patients. Conclusions: CG still has an interest in
Abstract screening the decline in renal function in subjects with nor-
Background/Aims: Although the National Kidney Disease mal SCr who are at risk, such as diabetics and stage 1 and 2
Education Program recommends use of the modification of CKD patients, as well as healthy subjects enrolled in clinical
diet in renal disease (MDRD) formula to estimate the glomer- trials and pharmacokinetic studies. Thus, it may be early to
ular filtration rate (GFR), most drug-dosing recommenda- replace CG by MDRD in drug studies. CG still is the better for-
tions and clinical practices employ the Cockcroft-Gault (CG) mula in the elderly. Both formulas are not safe in some pop-
formula. The quality score of the original MDRD study was ulations. Copyright © 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel
better than that of the original CG study, although the impre-
cision sources were very similar between the formulas. To
address whether CG should be abandoned in favour of
MDRD in chronic kidney disease (CKD) management, we per- Introduction
formed a literature review on the topic. Methods: We re-
viewed 27 articles comparing CG and MDRD in terms of bias, The National Kidney Disease Education Program and
precision, accuracy, and the risk of misclassifying by two CKD other scientific communities recommend using the mod-
stages. Results: In the chronic renal disease population, ification of diet in renal disease (MDRD) [1, 2] formula to
MDRD was more precise, safer and more accurate than CG at approximate renal function through the glomerular fil-
predicting the GFR, with two exceptions: CG was clearly su- tration rate (GFR). However, most drug-dosing recom-
perior in CKD patients with a normal serum creatinine (SCr) mendations are based on the Cockcroft-Gault (CG) [3]
and results were discordant in patients with advanced renal formula, which estimates the creatinine clearance (CrCl).
failure. In diabetic populations with normal and near-normal Additionally, CG remains widely used in clinical practice
GFR, the decline in renal function in diabetics was better and recent articles and reviews continue to support its use
screened by CG. In diabetics with renal impairment, MDRD is [4–6, 45, 47, 63].
CG MDRD
Study population Consecutive patients who had two or more Patients enrolled in a multicenter, controlled trial of
24-hour CrCls determined at Queen Mary the effects of dietary protein restriction and blood
Veterans Hospital pressure on the progression of kidney disease
Inclusion criteria Being in steady state defined as values for SCr Age of 18–70 years
differed by <20% CrCl <70 ml/min/1.73 m2
Mean arterial pressure ≤125 mm Hg
Exclusion criteria A body weight under 80% or over 160% of standard
body weight
Diabetes mellitus requiring insulin therapya
Urinary protein excretion exceeding 10 g/day
Total included patients 505 1,628
983 -/645 U
Training sample 236 (not randomly selectedb) 1,070 (randomly selected)
236 -/0 U
Validation sample 505c 558
Gold standard CrCl 125
I-iothalamate measured GFR
Renal function measurement CrCl: 72.7836.6 ml/min GFR: 40 8 21 ml/min/1.73 m2
Creatinine assay Jaffé (Technicon Autoanalyser method N-11B) Kinetic alkaline picrate (Beckman CX3)
Weight, kg Mean: 72 Mean 8 SD: 79.6816.8
Age Range: 18–92 Mean 8 SD: 51813
Statistical analysis Simple linear regression by plotting age against Stepwise multiple regression of log-transformed data,
creatininuria (mg kg–1 day–1) based on demographic, serum, and urine variables
QUADAS score [8] 45%d 82%
a
Only 6% of the MDRD sample were diabetic.
b Patients were rejected from the CG training sample if the difference between values for 24-hour creatinine excretion differed by
>20% (n = 173), if the 24-hour creatinine excretion was <10 mg/kg (n = 31), or if the records were inadequate (n = 65).
c Validation sample was not separate from the training sample.
d
Details of the Quality Assessment for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) score determination are shown in Appendix 1.
Cockcroft and Gault derived their equation from a The major weakness of the original CG study has been
population of 236 male hospitalized patients who had 2 the non-separation between the training and validation
CrCl determinations that differed by !20%. The mean of samples. When comparing the quality of the original
2 CrCl determinations were used to derive the formula, CG- and MDRD-deriving studies overall, the MDRD
considering age and patient weight. A 15% reduction was study clearly prevails (Appendix 1, table 1). However, this
recommended when applying the formula to women. Al- is of secondary importance if the CG formula performs
though the original purpose of the formula was to esti- at least comparably to the MDRD formula. Considering
mate CrCl, CG was later proposed to directly predict GFR the success of the MDRD, the main goal of the present
[7]. In contrast, the 4-variable MDRD resulted from a ret- review was to determine whether the CG formula should
rospective multicentre controlled trial of the effects of di- be abandoned or if it still has a place in renal function
etary protein restriction and strict blood pressure control analysis. In the original MDRD study, several subgroups
on kidney disease progression. The MDRD takes into ac- were excluded or insufficiently represented, including the
count serum creatinine (SCr), age, gender and race. elderly, diabetics, patients with end-stage renal disease or
CG MDRD
Agea + +
Weightb ++ 0
Racec 0 ++
Variability of SCr measurement methods
and devices between laboratoriesd ++ +
Sexe –/+ –/+
Serum albuminf ++ ++
a The dates of birth of two persons of the same age could differ ferences in the GFR between females and males are based on hor-
by 364 days. monal or muscular factors. These factors, or the force of their
b
Weight imprecision has multiple sources: tool used and its influence, are not constant at all ages. For instance, we wonder if
imprecision, hour of measurement, clothes, rounding effect, etc. the female corrective factor (0.85) in CG is necessary in the eld-
c
It depends on which factor the physician would choose for erly, with the frequent sarcopenia in both sexes. We could say the
multiracial subjects. same thing about the usefulness of a female factor in the very low
d For the 4-variable MDRD, the SCr of the original sample was
BMI group or in cirrhotic patients.
re-essayed in 2004 with an enzymatic method traceable to the f Serum albumin level influences tubular creatinine secretion
IDMS assay, and the formula was re-expressed using standard- as in nephrotic syndrome, making the creatinine-based formulas
ized SCr values. overestimate the GFR [54]. In this case, the use of the original
e Although it seems strange that sex could be a source of im-
6-variable MDRD may be more relevant, because it accounts for
precision, in this instance it is. Suppose that the reasons for dif- the albumin level.
renal disease with normal SCr levels, over- or under- Although the correlation coefficient (r) was frequently report-
weight patients, dialysis patients, kidney transplant re- ed, we did not use it for comparisons since r measures the strength
of the relationship but not the agreement between 2 variables [17,
cipients, patients receiving immunosuppressive or corti- 18]. The same issue applied to the determination coefficient R 2;
costeroid treatment, frequently hospitalized patients, or although sometimes considered to be a precision measure, R 2 is
patients with other serious medical conditions [9–11]. simply the square of the correlation coefficient in the simple lin-
Additional studies have been performed to validate the ear regression.
MDRD in these subgroups. Therefore, an additional goal CrCl estimated by CG as well as measured and estimated GFRs
were adjusted for body surface area and expressed in ml/min/
of our work was to compare the MDRD and CG formulas 1.73 m2 in all but 4 articles [4, 5, 13, 26]. In statistical tables, an
in some of these subgroups. empty cell indicates that information was not reported. Results
using the MDRD are shown in bold or in italics (tables 2–7) if they
over- or underperform those using CG.
Methods We classified SCr measurement methods into: alkaline picrate
methods (Jaffé methods) including modified ones, enzymatic
We reviewed 27 papers comparing CG and MDRD. Studies methods and isotope-dilution mass spectrometry methods
were included if they contained a gold-standard GFR measure, (IDMS).
such as inulin or isotopic methods. We typically compared CG
with the abbreviated 4-variable MDRD formula; however, in 6 Definitions of Performance Measures
articles [4, 5, 12–16] only the 6-variable MDRD formula was re- Estimation bias, also called systematic error, refers to an esti-
ported. Since the 2 MDRD formulas have relatively similar accu- mation method for which the average of repeated estimates devi-
racies [1], we do not expect that the use of both the 4- and 6-vari- ates from the true value [19]. Precision is the measure of the sta-
able formulas is a major limitation. tistical variance of an estimation procedure [19]. Unlike bias, pre-
Because the sample populations and methods were quite vari- cision is a random error and has no direction [20]. Unbiased but
able across the studies, we avoided calculating a pooled bias or imprecise estimates may arise when the measurement itself is im-
pooled accuracy. In addition, large-pooled means would not con- precise or when key elements are missing. The missing elements
firm the usefulness of a formula in a particular population. In- may not lead to overall bias but may be relevant for a subgroup
stead, we conducted a ‘stratified’ review, studying gathered ho- [21]. Accuracy is the closeness of the agreement between the mea-
mogenous samples wherever possible. Results were grouped based surement result and the true value [20, 22]. Like bias measures,
on patient characteristics (geriatrics, diabetics, renal disorders, accuracy measures typically consider the difference between the
nutrition disorders, healthy and normal SCr, and others). estimated and true values, but not the direction of this difference.
Year Authors Number Mean Age Gold standard Mean measured GFR SCr assay Patient characteristics
age 8 SD range ml/min/1.73 m2
2006 Levey et al. [1] 1,628 51813 ? Iothalamate 40821 Enzymatic MDRD programme
2002 Bostom et al. [36] 109 43813 18–64 Iohexol 109 Jaffé CKD patients with normal SCr
Authors Formula r R2 ME SD of ME 兩ME 8 2 SD兩 MAE Lin Rc CRMSE MPE MAPE Within values Classification
accuracy
B P S EA EA EA B+P EA EA CA
Levey CG –0.2 (m) IQR: 10 mPE: –0.5 (IQR: 30) P30: 83% AUC: 0.94a
et al. [1] MDRD –0.2 (m) IQR: 7.7 mPE: –0.6 (IQR: 24) P30: 90% AUC: 0.96
Bostom CG 0.41 0.17 –26.5 P30: 59%
et al. [36] MDRD 0.53 0.29 –41.7 P30: 28%
Kingdon CG 0.71 P50: 65%
et al. [37] MDRD 0.79 P50: 89%
Poggio CG 0.89 3.5 (m) 5.6 (m) mPE: 16% mAPE: 23% P30: 60%
et al. [38] MDRD 0.90 0.5 (m) 4.5 (m) mPE: –3% mAPE: 20% P30: 71%
Kuan CG 0.48 3.3 3.75 10.8 MPE: 35% P30: 46%
et al. [26] MDRD 0.53 –1 3.25 7.1 MPE: 10% P30: 69%
Cirillo CG 0.81 MPE: 10.2% MAPE: 27.1% P30: 67%
et al. [39] MDRD 0.87 MPE: –6.1% MAPE: 21.4% P30: 71%
Froissart CG 0.89 1.9 815.4 32.7M 15.5 MPE: U: 11835%, P30: 79% misclassified: 32%b
et al. [23] MDRD 0.91 –1 813.7 28.7 13.8 -: 8831% P30: 87% misclassified: 29%
CG performs better than MDRD, shown in italics; MDRD performs better than CG, shown in bold. MAE = Mean absolute error; CRMSE = combined root mean square error; MAPE =
mean absolute percentage error; mAPE = median absolute percentage error; Lin Rc = Lin’s coefficient; mPE = median percentage error; B = bias; P = precision; S = safety; EA = estimation
accuracy; CA = classification accuracy; (m) = median instead of mean.
a Cutoff level: 60 ml/min/1.73 m 2 . b These results were extracted from the full text of Froissart et al. [23]. In their abstract, contradictory results were given.
c175
Table 3. a General characteristics of studies comparing the CG and MDRD formulas in diabetic patients
c176
Year Authors Number Mean Age Gold Mean measured SCr assay Target population
age 8 SD range standard GFR 8 SD
ml/min/1.73 m2
2002 Vervoort et al. [12] 46 2787 Inulin 122818 Jaffé Non-complicated type I diabetic patients
2005 Ibrahim et al. [27] 1,286 3487 20–39 Iothalamate 122823 Jaffé Type I diabetic patients aged <39 years
2005 Rigalleau et al. [35] 122 66811 30–83 EDTA 45821 Jaffé Type 1 and 2 diabetic patients with renal impairment
2005 Rigalleau et al. [33] 160 62814 19–83 EDTA 61836 Jaffé Type 1 and 2 diabetic patients
2006 Fontseré et al. [40] 87 5489 EDTA 102836 Jaffé Type 2 diabetic patients
2006 Macisaac et al. [31] 126 61811 22–84 DTPA 89834 ? Type 1 and 2 diabetic patients
2007 Rigalleau et al. [34] 200 63813 19–83 EDTA 56835 Jaffé Type 1 and 2 diabetic patients
Table 3. b Statistical characteristics of studies comparing the CG and MDRD formulas in diabetic patients
Authors Formula r R2 ME SD of ME 兩ME 8 2 SD兩 CRMSE MPE MAPE 90th percentile of abso- Within Classification
lute percentage error values accuracy
B P S EA B+P EA P EA CA
Helou
Rigalleau CG 0.75 25 MAPE: 44854% AUC: 0.86 and 0.89
et al. [34] MDRD 0.82 20 MAPE: 29837% AUC: 0.92 and 0.95
CG Misclassified: 45%
MDRD Misclassified: 35%
CG performs better than MDRD, shown in italics; MDRD performs better than CG, shown in bold. CRMSE = Combined root mean square error; MAPE = mean absolute percentage er-
ror; B = bias; P = precision; S = safety; EA = estimation accuracy; CA = classification accuracy; (m) = median instead of mean.
a Cutoff level: 60 ml/min/1.73 m 2 . b The value of ME 82 SD was not provided by the authors. We calculated the approximate safety value from MPE and the mean GFR as follows: (兩MPE
EstimatedGFR MeasuredGFR
SD 2
Diabetics Group
N In studies where the safety measure could be calcu-
where SD is the standard deviation of the difference. lated [27, 31, 33, 40], neither formula was safe for use in
diabetics (table 3). The MDRD always underestimated
1
GFR, and in cases of normal or near-normal GFR [12, 27,
We chose the order shown because it was used by all but 3 studies [1,
12, 13], which used the opposite order for this equation (measured GFR – 40], the decline in renal function in diabetics seemed to
estimated GFR). The sign of the results of these 3 studies has been changed be better screened by CG.
only for the purpose of our review. It was unclear whether the diabetic sample popula-
2
Some authors preferred to call the arithmetic error the ‘absolute bias’,
such as in table 6 of Froissart et al. [23]. However, the absolute error should tions were totally independent in 2 articles published by
have no sign and is not a measure of bias, but of accuracy. Rigalleau et al. [33, 34]. The settings, age range, and re-
3
Some authors provided the standard error of the mean (SEM) instead sults (e.g. AUC and SD of the ME) were very similar.
of SD [13, 16]. We calculated SD for these results as SD = SEM ! 冪N, where
N is the number of patients. These characteristics led us to consider these 2 papers as
4
Bland-Altman plots, which test bias uniformity over the whole range a single study.
of values, were available in 15 studies. Limits of agreement (ME 8 2 SD) Diabetes was insufficiently represented in the original
were only provided in 12 studies [13, 16, 23, 26–34]. In articles that did not
provide them, the SD of the ME and of the MPE were extracted from the MDRD study, comprising only 6% of the sample [1]. A re-
distance between the limits of agreement of the Bland-Altman plot [26–29]. cent study using a pooled individual patient database
Year Authors Number Mean age Age Gold standard Mean measured SCr assay Patient characteristics
8 SD range GFR 8 SD
ml/min/1.73 m2
Table 4. b Statistical characteristics of studies comparing the CG and MDRD formulas in healthy and normal SCr subjects
CG performs better than MDRD, shown in italics; MDRD performs better than CG, shown in bold. (m) = Median instead of mean; MAE = mean
absolute error; mPE = median percentage error; MAPE = mean absolute percentage error; mAPE = median absolute percentage error; B = bias; P = preci-
sion; S = safety; EA = estimation accuracy.
showed an improvement in MDRD accuracy in 3 diabetic GFR values, and that these inaccuracies persist even after
cohorts after SCr calibration [49]. We did not include this SCr calibration [49]. For this reason, the National Kidney
study in our work, because the research did not include Disease Education Program and other organizations cur-
separate CG-MDRD comparisons for each cohort. rently recommend reporting a numeric value only for
MDRD-estimated GFR of !60 ml/min/1.73 m2. There are
Healthy and Normal SCr Group two problems with this recommendation. First, although
In all 4 studies reviewed that considered patients with the above threshold is useful for defining CKD, it does not
healthy and normal SCr (table 4), the MDRD underesti- represent the lower limit of the normal GFR range [46].
mated the GFR. The study by Vervoort et al. [12] com- Second, the GFR of an at-risk individual for CKD (due to
pared CG to the 6-variable MDRD. To our knowledge, the diabetes, medications, high blood pressure, age, etc.) could
accuracy between the 4- and the 6-variable MDRD for- drop by a third (e.g. from 90 to 60 ml/min/1.73 m2) with-
mulas has not yet been tested in the healthy and normal out being detected by the MDRD estimations. Because
SCr population. In the 3 other studies, CG was clearly less pharmacokinetic studies and clinical trials are usually
biased, while the accuracy results were often similar. first conducted in a healthy population, it may still be too
It is generally accepted that MDRD is inaccurate in sub- early to replace CG-estimated CrCl values with MDRD-
jects with low SCr values [50, author reply] or with high estimated GFR values in drug studies [52].
Year Authors Number Mean age Gold standard Mean measured SCr assay Patient characteristics
8 SD GFR 8 SD
ml/min/1.73 m2
Table 5. b Statistical characteristics of studies comparing the CG and MDRD formulas in elderly patients
Authors Formula r R2 ME SD of 兩ME 8 2 SD兩 90th percentile 90th percentile of abso- AUCa
the ME of absolute error lute percentage error
B P S P P CA
CG performs better than MDRD shown in italics; MDRD performs better than CG shown in bold. B = Bias; P = precision; S = safety; CA = classifica-
tion accuracy.
a AUC for cutoff levels at 90 and 60 ml/min, respectively. b Low GFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m 2 and high GFR >60 ml/min/1.73 m 2 .
Geriatrics Group study; it was the only study that used one shot of inulin
We found 3 articles [4, 13, 14] that compared estima- rather than a constant perfusion as a gold standard. The
tions using MDRD and CG to a gold standard in elderly one-shot inulin method has been validated in children
populations. Additionally, a subgroup aged 165 years was [43], but not in elderly patients. A previous paper by the
extracted from Froissart et al. [23] (table 5). Fehrman- same authors also reported a similarly large SD of ME
Ekholm et al. [14] did not report a statistical tool other [42]. In addition, the confidence interval of the mean
than the coefficients of correlation and of determination. measured GFR was 96 8 39 ml/min/1.73 m2. Thus, mod-
Burkhardt et al. [13] did not adequately explain their very erate and advanced CKD was not sufficiently represented
large SD of the ME (the largest one found in our review) in the elderly sample population.
obtained using both MDRD and CG. This large value led When reviewing the Froissart et al. [23] study, we
us to question the precision of the gold standard in their found that neither formula could be safely applied in el-
Table 6. b General and statistical characteristics of studies comparing the CG and MDRD formulas in obese patients
CG performs better than MDRD, shown in italics; MDRD performs better than CG, shown in bold. B = Bias; P = precision; S =
safety. No accuracy measure was available.
derly males (aged 165 years) with a high GFR. However, Other Groups
it would have been preferable if the sample had been strat- The results of other populations studied but not clas-
ified from 75 years. In Western countries, the concept of sified above are shown in table 7. The population targets
an ‘old’ patient diverges from the World Health Organi- studied included patients with rheumatoid arthritis, ad-
zation definition. In France, the mean age in institutions vanced liver disease, chronic heart failure, African-
for old persons is 85 years, and the Ministry of Health Americans with hypertension and a kidney disease co-
defines the geriatric department as a ward for patients hort, hospitalized patients, heart transplant recipients,
older than 75 years. and former kidney donors. Except in cases of advanced
Lamb et al. [4] used the gold standard of SCr measure- liver disease, where CG is more biased but somewhat saf-
ments (IDMS) and EDTA as GFR reference method. er, more accurate, and more precise, in all other popula-
Their mean age was 80 8 5 years and mean GFR was 54 tions the MDRD prevailed. Neither formula was safe in
8 17 ml/min/1.73 m2. Until larger studies are performed, heart transplant recipients, former kidney donors, or in
this article is the most relevant in elderly. It found that CG patients with advanced liver disease. In hospitalized pa-
was safer and less biased than MDRD in this population. tients, we could not calculate the safety measure; how-
The accordance of CG and MDRD is very poor in el- ever, with median absolute percentage errors of 71 and
derly populations ( coefficient of 0.44), and these formu- 53% for CG and MDRD, respectively, neither formula
las cannot be used interchangeably to measure renal would be safe.
function in this population [51]. For these reasons, we
recommend that only CG be used in elderly patients.
Discussion
Nutrition Disorders Group
Body mass index (BMI) subgroups were adequately Each time the average measured GFR of the sample
studied in 2 studies [23, 39] (table 6), and the results of was 190 ml/min/1.73 m2 [12, 27, 36, 38, 40, 48], CG per-
these studies indicated that MDRD is safer and less bi- formed better that MDRD, except in one study [41]. We
ased when used in patients with a high BMI. Neither for- believe that CG remains relevant in those patient popula-
mula can be safely used in patients with a low BMI. tions who generally have a normal SCr.
Year Reference Number Mean age Age range Gold standard Mean measured SCr assay Patient characteristics
8 SD GFR (8SD),
ml/min/1.73 m2
2008 Karstila et al. [6] 81 41–86 51Cr-EDTA 44 (m) Enzymatic Rheumatoid arthritis
66811
2006 MacAulay et al. [16] 57 16–67 99mTc-DTPA 83 ? Advanced liver disease
50811
125
2006 Smilde et al. [30] 110 58812 I-iothalamate 73827 ? Chronic heart failure
2001 Lewis et al. [15] 1,703 125I-iothalamate Jaffé AASK cohort
54811 57823
125
2005 Poggio et al. [44] 107 65815 39–82 I-iothalamate 17818 Jaffé Hospitalized patients
51
2006 Delanaye et al. [29] 27 57812 Cr-EDTA 39815 Jaffé Heart transplant
recipients
2006 Ibrahim et al. [32] 112 40810 Iohexol 72812 Jaffé Former kidney donors
Table 7. b Statistical characteristics of studies comparing the CG and MDRD formulas in non-classified populations
Reference Formula r R2 ME 8SD of 兩ME 8 2 SD兩 MAE MPE Other accuracy 90th percentile Lin Rc
ME measures of absolute per-
centage error
B P S A B A P A&P
CG performs better than MDRD, shown in italics; MDRD performs better than CG, shown in bold. AASK cohort = African-American Study of hy-
pertension and Kidney Disease; MAE = mean absolute error; Lin Rc = Lin’s coefficient; B = bias; P = precision; S = safety; A = accuracy; (m) = median
instead of mean; mAPE = median absolute percentage error.
a Predictive positive value (PPV) for cutoff level at 90 ml/min/1.73 m 2 . b The value of ME 8 2 SD was not provided by authors. We calculated the ap-
proximate safety value from MPE and mean GFR as follows: (兩MPE 8 2 SD兩) ! mean GFR.
The major argument against the use of CG is that it studies used different SCr methods; we believe that at
cannot be re-expressed for IDMS-traceable SCr values. least one could be re-expressed using IDMS-traceable
In addition, the SCr method used to develop the formu- SCr assay.
la is no longer in use and samples from the study are not A study by Stevens et al. [64] showed that the MDRD
available [62]. However, the success of CG is not due to had greater concordance with measured GFR for recom-
the original CG study itself (as the study contained sev- mended drug dosage than the CG, for all subgroups test-
eral weaknesses), but to its validation in several later ed, while the mean of CG-estimated CrCl was closer to
studies compared to both measured CrCl values and ref- the measured GFR than MDRD-estimated values in al-
erence GFR measurement methods [7, 55–61]. Those most all subgroups, as well as in the whole population.
Appendix 1
Quality Assessment for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies questionnaire [8] for the original MDRD and CG studies.
1 Was the spectrum of patients representative of the patients who will receive the test in practice?
2 Were selection criteria clearly described?
3 Is the reference standard likely to correctly classify the target condition?
4 Is the time period between reference standard and index test short enough to be reasonably sure that the target condition did not change
between the two tests?
5 Did the whole sample or a random selection of the sample, receive verification using a reference standard of diagnosis?
6 Did patients receive the same reference standard regardless of the index test result?
7 Was the reference standard independent of the index test (i.e. the index test did not form part of the reference standard)?
8 Was the execution of the index test described in sufficient detail to permit replication of the test?
9 Was the execution of the reference standard described in sufficient detail to permit its replication?
10 Were the index test results interpreted without knowledge of the results of the reference standard?
11 Were the reference standard results interpreted without knowledge of the results in the index test?
12 Were the same clinical data available when test results were interpreted as would be available when the test is used in practice?
13 Were uninterpretable/intermediate test results reported?
14 Were withdrawals from the study explained?
Questions CG MDRD
1 No: no women were included in the training sample. Of the entire sample, only 4% were women. Few No: there were very
elderly patients were included (only 17 patients were >80 years of age) strict eligibility and
exclusion criteria [9–11]
2 No: patients excluded from the training sample were retained in the validation sample, including 65 Yes
patients with inadequate records
3 No: CrCl may be a reference estimator of renal function, but ‘the mean of two CrCl measurements Yes
separated by an unknown delay’ is not
4 No: the CG study was retrospective with the mean of 2 CrCl measurements used as reference. We do not Yes
know the delay between the 2 CrCl measurements. Weight and age are also important variables, and it is
unknown whether they were ascertained at the first or second CrCl measurement
5–8 Yes Yes
9 No: no detail was given about how and when urine was collected Yes [9–11]
10–12 Not relevant Not relevant
13 Yes Yes
14 No: the training group was reduced in size from 249 to 236 individuals, without explanation Yes
We defined our safety condition as 兩ME 8 2 SD兩 ! 30 ml/min/1.73 m2. In the following 4 examples (fig. A–D) extracted from
2 articles studied in the current review, we show graphically that each time this threshold was exceeded, there was a significant risk
of misclassifying those patients close to the edge of a given CKD stage by two stages.
ME 2 SD ME 2 SD
|ME ± 2 SD| >30 ml/min/1.73 m2 |ME ± 2 SD| <30 ml/min/1.73 m2
Fig. A. Normal distribution of repeated CG-estimated GFR for a Fig. B. Normal distribution of repeated MDRD-estimated GFR
patient with a measured GFR of 59 ml/min/1.73 m2 (stage 3 CKD) for the same patient as in figure A, after applying an ME 8 SD of
after applying an ME 8 SD of 19.9 8 13.8 ml/min/1.73 m2 [from 12 8 8.5 ml/min/1.73 m2 [from 29]. No grey is shown because
29]. Grey (online red) indicates estimates that misclassify the pa- there is no estimate that misclassifies the diagnosis by two stages
tient by two stages and also belong to the 95% confidence interval and also belongs to the 95% confidence interval of the distribu-
of the distribution. tion.
Color version available online
Stage 2 Stage 3
Stage 3 Stage 2
ME 2 SD 2 SD ME
|ME ± 2 SD| >30 ml/min/1.73 m2 |ME ± 2 SD| <30 ml/min/1.73 m2
Fig. C. Normal distribution of repeated CG-estimated GFR for a Fig. D. Normal distribution of repeated MDRD-estimated GFR
patient with a measured GFR of 59 ml/min/1.73 m2 (stage 3 CKD) for a patient with a measured GFR of 61 ml/min/1.73 m2 (stage 2
after applying an ME 8 SD of 1.9 8 15.4 ml/min/1.73 m2 [from CKD) after applying an ME 8 SD of –1 8 13.7 ml/min/1.73 m2
23]. Grey (online red) indicates estimates that misclassify the pa- [from 23]. No grey is shown because no estimate misclassifies di-
tient by two stages and also belong to the 95% confidence interval agnosis by two stages and also belongs to the 95% confidence in-
of the distribution. terval of the distribution. The curve is generated in the same di-
rection as the bias (e.g. negative).
This article by Helou reviews a number of publications imated GFR values but it is also imperative not to put too
relating to the accuracy and bias of the two most com- many unrealistic and unfounded expectations on such
monly used formulae in Nephrology, namely the modifi- calculations; this is particularly true in individuals with
cation of diet in renal disease (MDRD) and Cockcroft- renal function within the normal range, women and in
Gault equations. It highlights their respective merit and the elderly. Concern has been expressed by some that the
limitations. The review adds to the endless debate about reported explosion of detected cases of CKD in communi-
the value and limitations of calculated glomerular filtra- ties in the last 10 years may be the consequence of over-
tion rate (GFR) at different stages of chronic kidney dis- interpretation or even misinterpretation of GFR values
ease (CKD). New formulae, based on serum creatinine derived from currently used equations. To know the indi-
(CKD-Epi), cystatin C or a combination of both, are cations and limitations of calculated GFR is essential for
emerging all the time. It is important as practicing ne- an accurate assessment of the scale of the CKD problem.
phrologists to appreciate their value in providing approx-