PI Industries

Reduce

 PI Industries reported standalone Sales/EBITDA/PAT of Rs CMP Rs 1,594

7.9/1.6/0.9bn which were below our estimates. PI Industries Target / Downside Rs 1,373 / 14%
reported lower sales on account of deferment in CSM orders amidst
COVID-19. BSE Sensex 34,404
NSE Nifty 10,168
 Higher depreciation cost of Rs 405 mn (up 66.0% YoY), along with
increase in interest cost to Rs 87 mn along with a tad hit on operating Scrip Details
leverage impacted profitability. Equity / FV Rs 138mn / Rs 1
 Sales from ISAGRO acquisition stood at Rs 598mn, out of which Market Cap Rs 220bn
domestic business contributed Rs 330mn and exports at Rs 268mn. USD 3bn

PI Industries had approved the raising of funds through a qualified 52-week High/Low Rs 1,650/Rs 970
institution placement (QIP) to eligible investors for an aggregate amount Avg. Volume (no) 204,209
not exceeding Rs 20.0bn which has been indefinitely delayed. PI Industries NSE Symbol PIIND
has been able to start supplies of an intermediate which finds application Bloomberg Code PI IN
in a COVID-19 drug for a Japanese company. The size of which is significant
and ramp up expected from Q1FY21. Improvement in product mix in Shareholding Pattern Mar'20(%)
domestic business (after shortening the product tail) led to only a marginal Promoters 51.4
Result Update

EBITDA margin contraction of 14bps YoY to 21.2%, especially in an MF/Banks/FIs 21.6

inflationary RM environment.
FIIs 12.1
Outlook and valuation Public / Others 14.9
We believe that the management of PI Industries is aggressively looking at Valuation (x)
building a technology & process led franchise in the field of agro-chemicals,
pharmaceuticals and fine chemicals. PI Industries brawny fundamentals FY20A FY21E FY22E
and unwavering intent of making in-roads into new verticals (organic and P/E 48.1 40.1 33.6
inorganic both) provides visibility for growth beyond FY22. Though PI EV/EBITDA 31.1 25.6 21.7
Industries exhibits a strong balance-sheet, cumulative OCF/FCFF of Rs
ROE (%) 18.6 19.2 19.4
11.3bn/3.6bn over FY21-22E the recent run-up in the stock limits further
upside. We believe with the current growth momentum P/E multiple is RoACE (%) 17.0 17.0 17.8
unlikely to shrink and we remain directionally positive on the stock. We
value PI Industries at 29.0x and maintain a reduce rating with a target price Estimates (Rs mn)
of Rs 1,373. (Disclaimer: we are maintaining a positive bias despite rating
FY20A FY21E FY22E
the stock as reduce).
Revenue 33,665 40,578 47,105
EBITDA 7,178 8,724 10,237
Q4FY20 Result (Rs Mn)
PAT 4,566 5,481 6,537
Particulars Q4FY20 Q4FY19 YoY (%) Q3FY20 QoQ (%)
EPS (Rs.) 33.1 39.7 47.4
Revenue 7,955 8,048 (1.2) 8,498 (6.4)
Total Expense 6,267 6,329 (1.0) 6,642 (5.6)
EBITDA 1,688 1,719 (1.8) 1,856 (9.1) Analyst: Archit Joshi
Depreciation 405 244 66.0 318 27.4 Tel: +9122 40969726
EBIT 1,283 1,475 (13.0) 1,538 (16.6) E-mail: architj@dolatcapital.com
Other Income 53 222 (76.1) 197 (73.1)
Associate: Tejas Sonawane
Interest 87 13 569.2 45 93.3 Tel: +9122 40969792
EBT 1,249 1,684 (25.8) 1,690 (26.1) E-mail: tejass@dolatcapital.com
Tax 266 440 (39.5) 486 (45.3)
RPAT 983 1,244 (21.0) 1,204 (18.4) Associate: Kalyani Somani
APAT 983 1,244 (21.0) 1,204 (18.4) Tel: +9122 40969751
(bps) (bps) E-mail: kalyanis@dolatcapital.com
Gross Margin (%) 47.2 45.7 141 46.6 54
EBITDA Margin (%) 21.2 21.4 (14) 21.8 (62)
NPM (%) 12.4 15.5 (310) 14.2 (181)
Tax Rate (%) 21.3 26.1 (483) 28.8 (746)
EBIT Margin (%) 16.1 18.3 (220) 18.1 (197)

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 Con Call Highlights
Business Update
 The company has successfully developed and scaled up a pharma
intermediate which finds application in a promising COVID – 19 drug which
is currently in the trial and evaluation phase. The company is working with
few large pharma companies in Japan and India and expects supplies to start
from Q1FY21.
 The company is progressing smoothly with the integration activities of
ISAGRO Asia which was able to register a growth of 10% in Q4FY20. Revenue
from ISAGRO Asia stood at Rs 598 mn with domestic contributing Rs 330 mn
and balance coming from exports.
 The management is confident of a recovery in H2FY21 driven by Agriculture
and Agro products with normal monsoon expectations leading to a good
kharif season and higher acreages.
 The outbreak of Corona virus which resulted in lockdown and disruptions
has forced the company to postpone its QIP and the management has not
provided any definite timeline as to when the QIP will be undertaken in the
future.
 Domestic revenues de-grew by 6% YoY in Q4FY20 (de-grew by 12% YoY for
FY20) to Rs 1.72bn due to deferment of sales as the pre placement strategy
was impacted due to the COVID – 19 related lockdowns during the last 10
days of March 20.
 Disruptions and lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic led to deferment
of sales of ~Rs. 1.0bn of March 20 as the pre-placement strategy could not
be executed due to complete lockdown in the last 10 days of March 20.
 EBITDA improved by 7% YoY to Rs. 1.87bn in Q4FY20 due to favorable
product mix with EBITDA margin of 22% which was broadly maintained
despite higher input prices and the COVID-19 impact. Improvement in
EBITDA is attributed to phasing out products which were at the fag end of
their life-cycle which led to improvement in product mix.
 The company has started the domestic production of Nominee Gold
(Bispyribac Sodium).
 The company’s MPP 9 plant started production in Q4FY20 while the MPP 11
plant which was scheduled to start in March 20 was postponed due to
COVID-19 and has begun operations in June 20. Also, the MPP plant at
Jambusar which had caught fire on 6Th January 2020 has restarted its
operations.
 The management said that the company is targeting at removal of end of life
cycle products which have low margins from its portfolio to improve margins
and profitability.
 CSM order book as at 31st March 2020 stands at ~ US$ 1.5 bn.
 Portfolio freshness index for the company stands at ~30-35% (New products
contribute ~30-35% to the company’s topline).
 The management mentioned that the company has taken price hikes for its
products for the upcoming kharif season.
 Total capitalization of Capex for FY20 was Rs 6.35bn.

June 09, 2020 2

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 Capex and Guidance
 The management has guided for a ~Rs.6.0 bn Capex for FY21 which will be
largely incurred towards PI industries’ organic growth opportunities with a
small portion earmarked for refurbishment of ISAGRO plant.
 The management has given a 20%+ growth guidance for FY21 on a
consolidated basis on the back of healthy demand expectations with
normalization of COVID-19 pandemic.

Q4FY20 Actual V/s DART estimates

Particulars (Rs mn) Actual Estimated Variance (%) Comments
Revenue 7,955 9,497 (16.2) Deferment of orders in CSM due to COVID-19
EBITDA 1,688 2,029 (16.8) Higher other expenses & lower sales due to
deferment of orders due to COVID-19
EBITDA Margin (%) 21.2 21.4 (15 bps)
PAT 983 1,401 (29.8) Same as above
Source: Company, DART

Change in estimates
FY21E FY22E
Particulars (Rs Mn) New Previous Chg (%) New Previous Chg (%) Comments
Revenue 40,578 37,272 8.9 47,105 45,568 3.4 Inclusion of ISAGRO
EBITDA 8,724 7,449 17.1 10,237 9,562 7.1 Same as above
EBITDA Margin (%) 21.5 21.1 40 bps 21.7 21.2 60 bps
PAT 5,481 5,162 6.2 6,537 6,762 (3.3) Same as above
EPS(Rs) 39.7 37.4 6.2 47.4 49.0 (3.3) Same as above
Source: Company, DART

June 09, 2020 3

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 Business Mix (%) Growth trajectory plus Business Split
100% 40 50%
35
80% 40%
53 58 54 54 52 58 30
66 72 72 70 76 76 66 70 76 86
60% 25 30%
20
40% 20%
15
20% 47 42 46 46 48 42 10
34 28 28 30 24 24 34 30 24 14 10%
0% 5
0 0%
Q1FY17
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20

FY12

FY17
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11

FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16

FY18
FY19
FY20
Agri-inputs Custom Synthesis Agri-inputs (Rs Bn) CSM (Rs Bn) YoY Gr (RHS)

Source: Company, DART Source: Company, DART

Agri Revenue Contribution CSM Revenue Contribution

3,500 30% 8,000 70
3,000 20% 7,000 60
10% 6,000 50
2,500 40
0% 5,000
2,000 30
-10% 4,000
1,500 20
-20% 3,000 10
1,000 -30% 2,000 0
500 -40% 1,000 (10)
0 -50% 0 (20)
Q1FY17
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY20
Q1FY17
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19

Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20

Revenue (Rs mn) YoY Growth (%) - RHS Revenue (Rs mn) YoY Growth (%) - RHS

Source: Company, DART Source: Company, DART

Return ratios profile Cash flows profile (Rs mn)

35 2.5 6,000 0.4
30 4,000 Rs mn
2.0
25 0.3
20 1.5 2,000
15 0 0.2
1.0
FY21E
FY22E
FY20
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19

10 (2,000)
0.5 0.1
5
(4,000)
0 0.0
0.0
FY21E

FY22E
FY20

(6,000)
FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

(8,000) -0.1
Asset T/o (RHS) RoCE (%) RoE (%) FCF CFO Capex Net D/E (RHS)
Source: Company, DART Source: Company, DART

June 09, 2020 4

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 Profit and Loss Account
(Rs Mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E
Revenue 28,409 33,665 40,578 47,105
Total Expense 22,645 26,487 31,854 36,868
COGS 15,502 18,474 22,399 25,799
Employees Cost 2,647 3,209 3,652 4,475
Other expenses 4,496 4,804 5,803 6,595
EBIDTA 5,764 7,178 8,724 10,237
Depreciation 930 1,367 1,617 1,817
EBIT 4,834 5,811 7,107 8,420
Interest 50 170 313 243
Other Income 595 489 513 539
Exc. / E.O. items 0 0 0 0
EBT 5,379 6,130 7,307 8,716
Tax 1,277 1,572 1,827 2,179
RPAT 4,102 4,566 5,481 6,537
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0
Profit/Loss share of associates 0 8 0 0
APAT 4,102 4,566 5,481 6,537

Balance Sheet
(Rs Mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E
Sources of Funds
Equity Capital 138 138 138 138
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0
Reserves & Surplus 22,716 26,053 30,703 36,243
Net Worth 22,854 26,191 30,841 36,381
Total Debt 579 6,033 4,833 4,033
Net Deferred Tax Liability (141) 102 102 102
Total Capital Employed 23,292 32,326 35,776 40,516

Applications of Funds
Net Block 12,141 18,911 22,294 24,477
CWIP 1,544 2,371 1,000 1,000
Investments 172 179 179 179
Current Assets, Loans & Advances 17,550 20,787 22,882 26,496
Inventories 5,357 7,989 9,630 11,179
Receivables 6,618 6,465 8,349 9,691
Cash and Bank Balances 892 1,342 (87) 635
Loans and Advances 63 83 83 83
Other Current Assets 3,501 3,583 3,583 3,583

Less: Current Liabilities & Provisions 8,115 9,922 10,580 11,636

Payables 5,130 5,909 6,567 7,623
Other Current Liabilities 2,985 4,013 4,013 4,013
sub total
Net Current Assets 9,435 10,865 12,303 14,860
Total Assets 23,292 32,326 35,776 40,516
E – Estimates

June 09, 2020 5

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 Important Ratios
Particulars FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E
(A) Margins (%)
Gross Profit Margin 45.4 45.1 44.8 45.2
EBIDTA Margin 20.3 21.3 21.5 21.7
EBIT Margin 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.9
Tax rate 23.7 25.6 25.0 25.0
Net Profit Margin 14.4 13.6 13.5 13.9
(B) As Percentage of Net Sales (%)
COGS 54.6 54.9 55.2 54.8
Employee 9.3 9.5 9.0 9.5
Other 15.8 14.3 14.3 14.0
(C) Measure of Financial Status
Gross Debt / Equity 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
Interest Coverage 96.7 34.2 22.7 34.6
Inventory days 69 87 87 87
Debtors days 85 70 75 75
Average Cost of Debt 5.5 5.1 5.8 5.5
Payable days 66 64 59 59
Working Capital days 121 118 111 115
FA T/O 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.9
(D) Measures of Investment
AEPS (Rs) 29.7 33.1 39.7 47.4
CEPS (Rs) 36.5 43.0 51.5 60.6
DPS (Rs) 4.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Dividend Payout (%) 13.5 12.1 12.6 12.7
BVPS (Rs) 165.7 189.9 223.6 263.8
RoANW (%) 19.5 18.6 19.2 19.4
RoACE (%) 19.1 17.0 17.0 17.8
RoAIC (%) 23.4 21.8 21.3 22.2
(E) Valuation Ratios
CMP (Rs) 1594 1594 1594 1594
P/E 53.6 48.1 40.1 33.6
Mcap (Rs Mn) 219,803 219,803 219,803 219,803
MCap/ Sales 7.7 6.5 5.4 4.7
EV 218,371 223,169 223,398 221,876
EV/Sales 7.7 6.6 5.5 4.7
EV/EBITDA 37.9 31.1 25.6 21.7
P/BV 9.6 8.4 7.1 6.0
Dividend Yield (%) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
(F) Growth Rate (%)
Revenue 24.8 18.5 20.5 16.1
EBITDA 16.8 24.5 21.5 17.3
EBIT 17.8 20.2 22.3 18.5
PBT 15.6 14.0 19.2 19.3
APAT 11.6 11.3 20.0 19.3
EPS 11.6 11.3 20.0 19.3

Cash Flow
(Rs Mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E
CFO 4,060 5,299 4,544 6,762
CFI (4,047) (8,864) (3,629) (4,000)
CFF (904) 4,221 (2,344) (2,040)
FCFF 321 (3,665) 915 2,762
Opening Cash 2,902 2,011 2,667 1,238
Closing Cash 2,011 2,667 1,238 1,960
E – Estimates

June 09, 2020 6

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 DART RATING MATRIX
Total Return Expectation (12 Months)
Buy > 20%
Accumulate 10 to 20%
Reduce 0 to 10%
Sell < 0%

Rating and Target Price History

Month Rating TP (Rs.) Price (Rs.)

(Rs) PI Target Price May-19 Reduce 1,113 1,119
1,660
Jul-19 Reduce 1,113 1,094
1,480 Aug-19 Reduce 1,113 1,114
Oct-19 Reduce 1,470 1,427
1,300
Nov-19 Reduce 1,470 1,401
1,120 Feb-20 Reduce 1,536 1,545
Mar-20 Accumulate 1,225 1,010
940
Mar-20 Accumulate 1,225 1,079
760
May-19
Jun-19

May-20
Jan-19
Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19
Sep-19

Jan-20
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19

Apr-20

Jun-20
Feb-19
Mar-19

Jul-19

Feb-20
Mar-20

*Price as on recommendation date

DART Team
Purvag Shah Managing Director purvag@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9747

Amit Khurana, CFA Head of Equities amit@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9745

CONTACT DETAILS

Equity Sales Designation E-mail Direct Lines

Dinesh Bajaj VP - Equity Sales dineshb@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9709
Kapil Yadav VP - Equity Sales kapil@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9735
Yomika Agarwal VP - Equity Sales yomika@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9772
Jubbin Shah VP - Derivatives Sales yomika@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 979
Ashwani Kandoi AVP - Equity Sales ashwanik@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9725
Lekha Nahar AVP - Equity Sales lekhan@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9740
Equity Trading Designation E-mail
P. Sridhar SVP and Head of Sales Trading sridhar@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9728
Chandrakant Ware VP - Sales Trading chandrakant@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9707
Shirish Thakkar VP - Head Domestic Derivatives Sales Trading shirisht@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9702
Kartik Mehta Asia Head Derivatives kartikm@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9715
Dinesh Mehta Co- Head Asia Derivatives dinesh.mehta@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9765
Bhavin Mehta VP - Derivatives Strategist bhavinm@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9705

Dolat Capital Market Private Limited.

Sunshine Tower, 28th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (West), Mumbai 400013

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