Name

Exercise 5: Answer Sheet for Probability

Total Points = 51.

Parts of this exercise are adapted from the Workbook to Accompany an Introduction to Statistical
Problem Solving in Geography (McGrew and Monroe 2000).

Part I. Basic Probability terms and concepts. Use Table 1 containing New Zealand census data to
answer questions 1 through 4. (8 points)

1. What is the probability of selecting an individual that is either Māori or a Pacific person
at random from a list of all 1.48 million non-European minority persons?

P = 0.603951

2. What is the probability of selecting a minority person that has settled on the South Island
of New Zealand?
P = 0.125483

3. What is the probability of selecting a minority person that does not identify as a Māori or
as a Pacific person?

P= 0.396049

4. What is the probability of selecting a minority person that is Asian or lives on the South
Island or both?

P= 0.407996

Part II. The Binomial Distribution

1. For each of these three potential growers, calculate the binomial probabilities associated
with “favorable outcomes” – no killing spring frost and only one killing spring frost
during a 5-year period. Show all the critical values and appropriate calculations in an
Excel spreadsheet or on a separate sheet of paper. Fill in the following table. (6 points)

Table of Binomial Probabilities of Killing Frost over a Five-Year Period

 Binomial Probabilities
Number of years out of five Smith Walker Jones
0 0.00243 0.000977 0.00001
1 0.02835 0.014648 0.00045
Total suitable outcome (0+1) 0.03078 0.015625 0.00046

2. Which potential growers, if any, should proceed with the planting of pear trees, given
their stated willingness to take risk? Explain and justify your decisions. (2 pts.)

Smith will be preferred because of having higher probability of success 3.07% as

compared to walkers and jones with having probability of 1.56% and 0.046%
respectively.

Part III. The Geometric Distribution

1. Refer to Part II to answer the following questions about killing frosts occurring on
Smith’s, Walker’s, and Jones’ properties. Using the geometric distribution, determine the
probability of a killing frost first occurring during the first year and the probability of a
killing frost first occurring during the second year. Fill in the following table. (3 pts).

Table of Geometric Probabilities of a Killing Frost First Occurring During Year k

Geometric Probabilities
YEAR (k) out of five year period Smith Walker Jones
1 0.7 0.75 0.90000
2 0.21 0.1875 0.09
Total suitable outcome (0+1) 0.91 0.9375 0.99

2. Of the three properties being considered for a potential pear orchard, which one is most
likely to experience a killing frost during the first year of operation? (1 pt.)

Jones is most likely to experience a killing frost during the first year of operation because
of having higher probability of 90%.

Part IV. The Poisson Distribution. Adapted from Lembo.1

1
Lembo, Jr., Arthur J. 2014. Workbook for Statistical Problem Solving in Geography. Salisbury, MD.:
www.artlembo.wordpress.com., pp.29 – 32.
 1. Summary Table of Hailstorms in Arkansas for 2013 (8 points)

Observed
A. # of hailstorm Total Hailstorms Probability of Poisson
per cell B. Frequency (A*B) Ocuurence Proablity
0 1 0 0 0.001
1 0 0 0 0.006
2 2 4 0.005 0.020
3 4 12 0.014 0.048
4 12 48 0.056 0.086
5 16 80 0.093 0.123
6 19 114 0.132 0.146
7 15 105 0.122 0.149
8 10 80 0.093 0.133
9 14 126 0.146 0.105
10 17 170 0.197 0.075
11 8 88 0.102 0.049
12 2 24 0.028 0.029
13 1 13 0.015 0.016
Total 121 864 1 0.985072

2. Average Number of hailstorms per Cell = 7.17 (1 pt.)

3 Are the observed probabilities and Poisson probabilities similar or different? Is the
spatial pattern of hailstorm events random or non-random based on your results? (2 pts.)

There is difference between observed probabilities and Poisson probabilities. Based on

results, it is concluded that spatial pattern of hailstorm events is non- random.

Part V. The Normal Distribution (10 Points)

1. What is the probability of Baltimore having over 35 inches of precipitation in any year?

P = 0.839

2. What is the probability of the city having less than 50 inches of precipitation in any year?
 P = 0.87396

3. What is the probability of Baltimore having between 35 and 45 inches of precipitation in

any year?

P= 0.51

4. If past climatological conditions continue, Baltimore should receive at least ______

inches of precipitation in 17 out of the next 20 years.

P= 0.67

5. If past climatological conditions continue, what is the lowest annual precipitation that
Baltimore should expect during some year in the next 100 years? Refer to the text at the
bottom of Table A in the appendix of the text.

P= 0.54

Part VI. Probability of a value being exceeded (10 points)

1. In the space provided, record the z-score value you selected for this problem:

Z-score = 0.842 (2.5 pt.)

2. In the space provided enter the general format of the equation used to solve for the
heating degree days to be exceeded 80% of the time. Use the z-score recorded above.

Equation: x=μ−σz (2.5 pt.)

3. Enter the heating degree day values that will be exceeded 80% of the time for the
stations in question in the table below. (5 pts).
Weather Station Mean St. Dev 80% chance exceeded

Birmingham 2877 313 2613

Flagstaff 7305 502 6882
Chicago 6142 148 6017
Syracuse 6884 230 6690
Fargo 9584 419 9231
Harrisburg 5322 325 5048
Philadelphia 4367 324 4094
Block Island 5839 287 5597
Providence 5971 241 5768
Charleston 2122 374 1807