WEB2P

CHAPTER 3 - FLOOD CALCULATIONS

M van Dijk and SJ van Vuuren

3.1 OVERVIEW OF THIS CHAPTER

This chapter covers the procedures that could be used to determine the design flood peaks for hydraulic
structures and specific return periods. To be able to use these procedures a theoretical introduction is
given which is then reinforced by worked examples.

Table 3.1 provides a Road Map for this chapter.

Table 3.1: Road Map for flood calculations

ROAD MAP 3
Worked
Typical problems Other topics
Input examples Supporting
information Example software
Topic Par. Topic Par.
number
Calculate flood 3.5.1, Catchment area, Design of lesser 7
peaks for a 3.5.2, slopes, run-off culverts or storm
small 3.5.3 & characteristics, water conduits
catchment area 3.5.4 mean annual Design of surface 5
rainfall 3.1 drainage structures
or components
Utility Flood line 4.4
Programs for determination
Drainage Flood routing 7.5
Calculate flood 3.4, Catchment area, Design of bridges 8.2 &
peaks for a 3.5.4 & slopes, historical and major culverts 8.3
large catchment 3.6 flood records, Scour estimation at 8.4
3.2
area mean annual major structures
rainfall Flood line 4.4
determination
Back 3.4, 3.5 Flood event Risk and legal 2.5, 2.8
calculating of a & 3.6, information, river aspects & 8.2
flood event’s 4.2, 4.4 characteristics, Utility
return period catchment area, Programs for
-
slopes, run-off Drainage &
characteristics, HEC-RAS
mean annual
rainfall

3.2 INTRODUCTION

3.2.1 Terminology

The run-off that is generated within a catchment through precipitation will depend on the:
• characteristics of the storm event;
• the response characteristics of the catchment; and
• the influence of temporal storage on the run-off.

The temporal distribution of the run-off is reflected in a hydrograph, such as plotted in Figure 3.1.
The flood peak (QP) is reached as soon as the entire catchment contributes to the flood, which is also
referred to as the time of concentration (TC).

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Figure 3.1: Typical flood hydrograph

The potential damage that a flood could cause to human and developments may be related to one or
more of the following parameters:

• High flood level (HFL) - the maximum water level reached at a given point during the
flood.
• Peak discharge (QP) - the maximum flow rate during the flood.
• Maximum flow velocity - the maximum calculated flow velocity associated with a given
flow rate.
• Flood volume - the volume of water that is released from a catchment, responding to a
given storm event and catchment characteristics.
• Flood duration - the period of time during which the discharge does not drop below a
given limit.

Peak discharge is the most useful parameter in the calculation of the required cross-sectional area to
convey a flood and to determine the backwater effect (upstream influence) of any structure that
influences the normal flow conditions. The peak discharge is directly related to the characteristics of
the storm event and response of the contributing catchment area.

Although the peak discharge does not remain constant as the flood progresses along a watercourse,
changes are fairly gradual where there are no tributaries or local temporary storage. It could,
therefore, be postulated that the peak discharge is independent of local changes in the watercourse,
such as bed slope and cross-sectional shape. With the peak discharge having been determined, the
high-flood level (flood line) and associated flow velocities may be determined by means of hydraulic
calculations (uniform or gradually varied flow relationships). The flood volume and temporal
variance of the flow rate can be derived from the hydrograph.

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3.2.2 Different methods in use for the calculation of flood peaks

There are different hydrological calculation methods in use that can be applied to road drainage. The
proven and most used methods in Southern Africa have been selected for inclusion in this Manual,
and they are:

• Statistical methods
• Rational method
• Alternative Rational method
• Unit Hydrograph method
• Standard Design Flood (SDF) method
• Empirical method

It is good practice in the determination of design floods for bridges or large culverts to use more than
one of the above methods, and if historical run-off data is available it should be analysed as well. It is
always required to use the SDF method and compare with the other applicable methods. Where large
discrepancies occur, an assessment should be conducted to motivate the selected design flood.

These methods have been developed by various institutions, and are either based on measured data
(statistical); or on a deterministic basis (Rational, Unit Hydrograph and SDF methods); or are
empirical relationships. Except for the statistical method, the methods were “calibrated” for certain
regions and flood events, and are limited in terms of the size of the catchment areas on which they
could be applied. Table 3.2 lists the methods, input data requirements, maximum recommended
catchment area for which each procedure can be used and references related to the procedures.

Table 3.2: Applications and limitation of flood calculation methods

Return period of
Recommended
floods that could Reference
Method Input data maximum area
be determined paragraph
(km²)
(years)
2 – 200
Statistical No limitation
Historical flood peak records (depending on the 3.4
method (larger areas)
record length)
Rational method Catchment area, watercourse
< 15 2 – 100, PMF 3.5.1
length, average slope,
Alternative catchment characteristics,
No limitation 2 – 200, PMF 3.5.2
Rational method rainfall intensity
Catchment area, watercourse
length, length to catchment
Synthetic
centroid (centre), mean annual 2 – 100
Hydrograph 15 to 5000 3.5.3
rainfall, veld type and
method
synthetic regional unit
hydrographs
Standard Design Catchment area, slope and
No limitation 2 – 200 3.5.4
Flood method SDF basin number
Catchment area, watercourse
Empirical No limitation
length, distance to catchment 10 – 100, RMF 3.6
methods (larger areas)
centroid, mean annual rainfall

Methods that are not included in this manual are the SCS and Run hydrograph methods (see
Section 3.7).

The procedures on which these methods are based are briefly discussed on the next page.

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Statistical methods (Section 3.4) involve the use of historical data to determine the flood for a given
return period. Their use is thus limited to catchments for which suitable flood records are available, or
for which records from adjacent catchments are comparable and may be used, as described in detail in
Section 3.4. Where accurate records covering a long period are available, statistical methods are very
useful to determine flood peaks for long return periods. The method lends itself to extrapolation of
data to determine flood magnitudes for longer return periods.

The Rational method (Section 3.5.1) is based on a simplified representation of the law of
conservation of mass. Rainfall intensity is an important input in the calculations. Because uniform
aerial and time distributions of rainfall have to be assumed, the method is normally only
recommended for catchments smaller than about 15 km2. Only flood peaks and empirical hydrographs
can be determined by means of the rational method. Judgement and experience on the part of the user
with regard to the run-off coefficient selection is important in this method, but thanks to improved
methods, subjective judgement is becoming less important.

The Alternative Rational method (Section 3.5.2) is an adaptation of the standard rational method.
Where the rational method uses the depth-duration-return period diagram to determine the point
precipitation, the alternative method uses the modified recalibrated Hershfield equation as proposed
by Alexander (3.1) for storm durations up to 6 hours, and the Department of Water Affairs’ technical
report TR102 for durations from 1 to 7 days.

The Unit Hydrograph method (Section 3.5.3) is suitable for the determination of flood peaks as well
as hydrographs for medium-sized rural catchments (15 to 5 000 km2). The method is based mainly on
regional analyses of historical data, and is independent of personal judgement. The results are
reliable, although some natural variability in the hydrological occurrences is lost through the broad
regional divisions and the averaged form of the hydrographs. This is especially true in the case of
catchments smaller than say 100 km2 in size.

The Standard Design Flood (SDF) method (Section 3.5.4) was developed by Alexander (3.14) to
provide a uniform approach to flood calculations. The method is based on a calibrated discharge
coefficient for a recurrence period of 2 and 100 years. Calibrated discharge parameters are based on
historical data and were determined for 29 homogeneous basins in South Africa.

Empirical methods (Section 3.6) requires a combination of experience, historical data and/or the
results of other methods. Empirical methods are more suited to check the order of magnitude of the
results obtained by means of the other methods.

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3.4 STATISTICAL METHODS

3.4.1 Applicability of statistical methods

Statistical methods are based on the fitting of probability distributions functions to measured values of
maximum annual flood peaks. The accuracy of these methods depends a great deal on the reliability
of the measured values, particularly the accuracy with which flow rates are measured, and on the
length of the historical record. The latter should preferably be longer than half of the design return
period, and should include both wet and dry periods. Statistical methods are reliable only when
applied to a catchment of the same stream or at least of the same hydro meteorological region
(possessing the same flood-causing characteristics and factors) as those on which the statistical fitting
was done. The more compatible the catchment characteristics of the monitored catchment and those
of the catchment under consideration, the more reliable the calculations are likely to be.

Since statistical methods are based on the use of historical events to predict future floods, any changes
in the flood-causing factors within a catchment will also affect the reliability of the methods. Such
changes should consequently be investigated and, where possible, be provided for.

In SA measured flow records for the hydrological years (October to September) are available from the
Directorate of Water Affairs and Forestry (www.dwaf.gov.za), some local authorities, bodies such as
the Rand Water Board and some universities. However, the measurements usually pertain to large
catchments, and the statistical methods are thus only applicable to such areas.

3.4.2 Annual and partial series

An annual series is formed when the largest discharge value for every year during the recorded period
is used as a basis for calculation. For a 20-year period there would thus be 20 values, representing the
highest peak in every hydrological year, but not necessarily representing the 20 highest peaks.

In a partial series, all the recorded flood peaks are ranked in a descending order and the first number
(equal to the number of years of data) of peaks is selected for the calculation. This selection
procedure means that some of the annual peaks may not be included in the series, whereas more than
one flood peak from some years may be included.

In road design, annual series are usually used that give considerably lower flood peak values for small
return periods in comparison with partial series (Figure 3.3). The economic considerations are,
however, based on annual series so that the prescribed return periods implicitly allow for the
differences.

Figure 3.3: Comparison between annual and partial series

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3.4.3 Overview of probabilities

The return period (T) is the average period over a large number of years during which an event (peak
flow) repeats or exceeds itself. The annual probability of the occurrence of an event having a T-year
return period equals:

⎛1⎞
P=⎜ ⎟ … (3.1)
⎝T⎠

The probability of an event with a return period of T to occur over a given design life of n years may
be determined as follows (3.4):
n
⎛ 1⎞
P1 = 1 − ⎜1 − ⎟ … (3.2)
⎝ T⎠
where:
P1 = probability of at least one exceedence during the design life
n = design life in years
T = return period in years

PX is the probability of x exceedences over the design life (n), and can be determined as follows:

PX = n c xP x (1 − P ) n − x … (3.3)
⎛ 1⎞
or PX = n c xP x ⎜1 − ⎟ n − x … (3.4)
⎝ T⎠
where:
x = number of exceedences
c
n x = number of combinations of n events taken x at a time
n!
ncx = … (3.5)
x! (n − x ) !

A summary of the design return periods needed in order not to exceed an allowable risk of occurrence
is given in Table 3.5.

Table 3.5: Return periods needed in order not to exceed given

Probabilities of occurrence for different design lives
Probability of Life of project (years)
occurrence (%) 1 10 25 50 100
1 100 910 2 440 5 260 9 100
10 10 95 238 460 940
25 4 35 87 175 345
50 2 15 37 72 145
75 1,3 8 18 37 72
99 1,01 2,7 6 11 22

3.4.4 Methods of calculation used in statistical analysis

There are various statistical distribution functions that could be applied in the analysis of extreme
values (flood peaks), but most of these are time-consuming unless performed by means of a computer.
The graphic method is consequently recommended for hand calculations. The method aims to
represent the distribution functions as a linear relationship on paper by means of specific divisions on
the horizontal axis of the graph paper. Special graph paper is available for Normal and Gumbel
distributions. The vertical scale may be linear or logarithmic.

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Log-normal distribution functions are usually suitable for distributions in most parts of South Africa.
However, the Gumbel distribution functions (a special case of the General Extreme Value (GEV)
distribution functions)(3.1) yield better results in areas with relatively regular and high rainfall, such as
the eastern parts of the country and the South and South-Western Cape.

The position in which every point should be plotted on the graph is calculated using the Weibull
formula. The general equation is given below and the values for the constants a and b are provided in
Table 3.6.
n+a
Τ= … (3.6)
m-b
where:
T = return period in years
n = length of record in years
m = number, in descending order, of the ranked annual peak floods
a = constant (see Table 3.6)
b = constant (see Table 3.6)

If the horizontal axis has a probability classification, the probability (P) is calculated as:
1
Ρ= … (3.7)
Τ
Once the points have been plotted, a straight line is drawn through them to obtain the best fit. If it is
not possible to obtain a good fit, another type of probability graph could be attempted. It is
recommended that more than one type be tried to determine which type fits the historical data best.
Poor fits may occur as a result of changes that have taken place with time in the catchment, or because
of the unsuitability of the method being used. If the differences are explainable, correction factors
should, where possible, be applied to the data on a deterministic basis. Otherwise alternative methods
such as the Log-Pearson Type III (standard in the USA) or the "General Extreme Value" method (UK
Flood Studies) (3.23) should be considered. Some of the commonly used plotting positions
recommended for use in hydrological analyses are given in Table 3.6. If several distributions are
plotted on a single graph then the general purpose Cunane plotting position should be used.

Table 3.6: Commonly used plotting positions (3.1)

Type Plotting position Distribution
Weibull (1939) a=1&b=0 Normal, Pearson 3
Blom (1958) a = 0,25 & b = 0,375 Normal
Gringorten (1963) a = 0,12 & b = 0,44 Exponential, EV1 & GEV
Cunane (1978) average
a = 0,2 & b = 0,4 General purpose
of above two
Beard (1962) a = 0,4 & b = 0,3 Pearson 3
Greenwood (1979) a = 0 & b = 0,35 Wakeby, GEV

Detailed descriptions of direct statistical analysis methods are provided in Alexander’s book Flood
Risk Reduction Measures (3.1) (also see Appendix 3A). The reliability and accuracy of the historical
record is extremely important, as well as the selection of the probability distribution function that best
fits the data taking into account the outliers (high and low), zero flows, missing data and trends.
Figure 3.4 represents a typical example of a fitted distribution function; in this example Log Pearson
Type 3 using Cunane plotting positions.

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Figure 3.4: Example of graphical frequency analysis plot

If different statistical methods provide conflicting results for medium and large catchments where the
impact in terms of the flood size is significant, it is recommended that an independent investigation by
an experienced person be undertaken.

3.4.5 Use of short records in statistical analysis

Where the available flow records cover only a short period (± 5 years), these records could be
extrapolated if reliable records from neighbouring measuring station(s) with comparable long records
are available. It is good practice to limit the extrapolation of flow records to a maximum of two to
three times that of the observed period.

For example if two flood records are available, record A with a limited record length and record B
with a substantial length, then record A may be extrapolated by considering the partial series of all
floods above a prescribed minimum for the short record (A) and for the corresponding period of the
long record (B). In order to obtain a larger sample, all floods above the prescribed minimum are used,
instead of simply a number equal to the number of years. The values of corresponding ranked order
numbers are then plotted against one another on double logarithmic paper, and a straight line is fitted
to show the relationship between flood peaks for stations A and B. The peak discharge of the desired
return period is then computed for the long record in the usual manner, and is transferred to the station
with the short record by using the determined logarithmic relationship between flow record A and B.
Figure 3.5 displays the logarithmic relationship between the two records used to obtain flow peaks
for station A for longer recurrence intervals.

For greater reliability, relationships could be determined with more than one long-term record.

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Figure 3.5: Example of extrapolation of record

Flood calculations 3-14

 CHAPTER
8

FloodEstimation
Probabilistic

At the end of this chapteryou will be able to:

. organise primaryhydrological observations in a form amenable to statistical

analysis,with a rankassociated with eachvalue
. assiga n r e t u r np e r i o dt o e a c hv a l u eu s i n ga n yo n eo f t h e m u l t i p l em e t h o d s
available
r find a statistical distribution that bestfits the observed data
. usethe statistical distribution to find a valuecorresponding to a desired
returnoerrod
o recognise the dangerof extrapolating too far awayfrom the available data.

t,t Pp!1p_iJistichy-d1_"_l"
g::+l $aly:9:
Probabilistictechniquesareusedto analysea historicalseqLlence ol'events
(floods,run-off in rivers,precipitation,etc.)and to extractits relevantstatistical
pararneters. With this known,estimatescetnbe madefor eventswith any
reqr-rired returnperiod.
. Step I : Determinethe rank of eachdatapoint.The datarecordis first sorted
fiom largeto small (if maxirnr"rrn valuesare recluiredas in flood hydrology)
or fiom smallto large(if minimum valuesare requiredas in determining
low-flow sequences in a river duringa drought).The flrst valueis then
a s s i g n etdh er a n km : l , t h es e c o n dt n : 2 , e t c .T h e l a s tv a l u ew i l l h a v et h e
rankm: N, wherel/ is the total numberof datapoints.
. Step2: Assigna returnperiodto eachdatapoint in erccordance with its rank
rz. as shownin the fbllowine formula:
u : N - l l t
I : -/
t l l l i 0

where7: returnperiod
1/ : numberof datapoints
ra : rank of datapoint when rankedfrom high to low
u Io d : constantsfiom table8.1 below

8l
 I 1-rtr.
i,: Flq,l.l H11!pl9g11
1]ducti1111

The r-rnits
of the retllrn period depend
on the natureof the ciatapoints: 8.2 Con
annualmaximaare used, it if
would be years;for daily
days,etc. maxima, it woLrldbe
Log-

Numerousconstantshave
beensuggested,
as shownin Tabreg. r berow.
Table8'1 Values
of constants
usedto calcurate
the returnperiod
Log-
T
(ifN: 50,
C a l i f i r r n i a( l ( ) 2 3 ) m: l)
I (.) I (,
Hazcn( 1930) .50
2 (.) 2 -l
Extrr
W e i b u l l( t 9 3 9 )
I
l(x)
I I (.)
Bcard( I 962) -51
I ().,+0 I -0.30
B k r r n( l 9 - 5 8 ) 72
I 0.2.5
G l i n s o r t c n( 1 9 6 3 )
I -0.3u IJI
I o.l2
C l u n a n(cl 9 7 1 3 )
I -0.11
I
90
o.20 I -().,+0
G r c c n w o o c( l g l g ) u4
I (, I
Wakr
-0.3-5
l7

,s.a Bibli
Alexa
Pretc
l ) : -
I 'Es
I' a-
I

Thereare specialsheets
of graphpaperavailable,
importantstatisticalctistributionr.'o1." corresponcling to the most
a cristribution f=
tracea straightline on the rit, ir.,"data,rhedatawi,
graphpaper.In recentti,r.r,
in. ,ame anarysisis
bvcompLrter prosrams,
whichwiualrow
::r;ili::1"'"Tt a visual
march
ona
o Step4: Find the
extremevaruecorresponding
final stepis to fit a straight to a requirecr
returnperiod.The
rine to rhedatapoints,""d;;;"
valueto the requiredreturn to exrrapolare
the
perioci. The ur
maxin

82
 Probabilistic Flood Estimation

e datapoints:if 9"+Tq$y"slqaly{tgtggi:4apgigytist:
xima,it would be
Log-normal This is the normal distributionwith two parameters(mean
and standarddeviation),exceptthat the log of the data
rble8.I below. pointsis used.The distributionis symmetricalwith zero
skewness.

Log-Pearson Closelyrelatedto log-normal,exceptthat it allowsfor a

skewness coeflicient.with zeroskewness, it reducesto los-
normal.
0 -50
-l Extreme values Therearethreevariationsof this distribution.The EVI
r00
0 distributionis basedon fixedskewness of l.l 4.TheEy2
-51
0.30 (Frechet)distributionis a three-parameter
distributionused
72
0.38 whenskewness ) 1.14,andthe EV3 (negative Weibull)
8l
).44 distributionis usedwhenskewness { 1.14.
90
).40 84
r.35
Wakeby This is a sophisticated
five-parameter
distribution,requiring
71
good datato estimatethe five parametersaccurately.
s thereturnperiod
Lctical
use. s.a-*Diblio*grap"ly
t appropriate
Alexander,w J R ( 1990)Flood Hyctrotogy southernAfrica. SANCOLD,
plotting for
Pretoria.
. Estimationof probabilityof exceedence
formulap. 5 _ 14

to themost 'r-a\N+1,l
r -7Vm+(l
a, thedatawill
analysisis where T: return period
sualmatchon a N : numberof datapoints
m : rank of data point when ranked from high to low
urnperiod.The a to d : constantsfrom Table 8.I
)xtrapolatethe
The unitsof the returnperioddependon the natureof the datapoints:if annual
maximaareused.it would be years;for daily maxima.it wouldbe days.etc.

83
 9 q 1o-F1
tq 1r9clu9,qi lyd p|9 5t'
99,-c1

Plot a graPhof l
Application easierto visuali
is availablefor a measunng
A recordof 63 annualmaximum flood discharges a regressionline
of the fourth-highest
point in a river. Estimatethe probability of exceedence well, as showni
ualu. using the methodsof Gringortenand Greenwood'

N:63 andm:4
: 0'12;c : l; d : -0'44
Gringorten'. a : 7;b
T : l l . l 3 Y e a r so, r P : 0 ' 0 5 6 4
(J 170

G r e e n w o o da' :. l ; b : 0 ; c: l;d: -0'35

T : lJ .26 years,or P : 0.0579 -o 16o

'.- r 5()
o "-

Example 8.1 o -1.+rr

(gaugec 1R001) are shtlwnin Table

The naturalisedrnonthlyflows at veralDam
CJ
- ' -
to estimatethe annualflows c

8.2 on the nextpagc.use the Gringortenforrnulai d

of 50 and 200 years'Reportthe

for exceeilinglywet yearswith returnperiocls
- 1 ) l

br.)
anclrelativeto the MAR'
resultsboth in termsof absoluteflow volumes

Soluliort
The MAR is directlyreadoff as2 0l I mr'
to usethe upperend
necessary
The recordcontainsvaluesfbr 54 years.It is only
o f t h e r a n g e , s a y t h e a n n u a l v o l u m e s f o r t h e t e n w e t t e s t y e a r: s . T h e T a b l e b e l o w For arreturn
returnperiods,usingN 54..
setsout the calculationo1.the corresponcling logV:
log T log V or
T V
6240 - ?
L)6.64 6 889.3 1.99 3.84
I 20ll
2 34.69 5751.0 r.54 3.16

2l l4 5 454.I 1.33 3.14 Fttr a retur

4 15.20 4 93-5.1 l.lu 3.69 logV:
I 1.87 4 375.8 t.07 3.64
5 or
9.73 4 14l.l 0.99 3.62
6 7 8 3 0-
8.25 4031.9 0.92 3.61 20 l l

8 7. 1 6 3 668.9 0.85 3.56

9 o,-) I 3 (:36.2 0.80 3.56
10 5.66 3 544.I 0.75 1.55

84
 Prtlb{itig1i9Fl(lgciE$inllltloll

Plota graphof log Z versuslog Z. The logarithmsare simply usedto makeit

; availablefor a measuring easierto visualisethe data,giventhe broadlangescoveredby both axes.Obtain
rceof the fourth-highest a regressionline with reasonablefit. In this case,the powerlaw line worked
rod. well,as shownin the graPh:

l.(x)

^ 3.1J0
0

o 170

?
E= "r r.rr
'
O

0 . -

=
lR00l) areshownin Table E 3.40
?
stimate theannualllows 5 I l o
E " -
td 200years.Reportthe 5
: lr{)
ativeto theMAR. o/J
-
l.l0

I (X)
0.0
)ssaryto usethe upperencl I o g 7 ' ( r c t u r n p e l i o c li n y c a l ' s )
;t years.The Tablebelow
'iods,usingN:54: :
For a rcturnperioclof T : -50years,readoff the graphlor log -50 1.7:
l o g V : 3 . 1 9 5o r V : 6 2 4 0 m 3
or

#H: of theMAR
3loa/o
:
FOra returnperioclof z: 200 years,readofTthegraphfor log 50 2.3:
logV:3.894orV:7830m3
or
: 389o/o
of the MAR
##

85
 IlgSdU.t19!l" !1""4 t{Jdt"9!."_gy

Naturalisedmonthly flows at Vaal Dam (gaugeC1R00t)

t936 | 113.0 242.7 '795.5| 325.2 t 3 2 . 6

15.5
r937 203.3 123.0 52.0 22.9 l 163.
r938 279.5 313.4 49'7.02 035 145.1 4 l . l 4 037.
1939 84.2 470-8 222.5 1 0 8 . 1 99.4
31.2 43.4 2201
1940 87.0 398.6 532.6 461.2 449.8 1 5 8 . 7
15.3 13.3
t94l 2 3 . 1 t9.6 125.6 t49;7 86.I 22.3 13.9
1942 128. ' 7 2 t . 6 2 1 7 . 3 5"7.I 235.2 2 9 t . 9 749.8 200.5 271.23 636
1943 460.2 | 264. 755.4 2 7 6 6 . 0 296.2 't7.6 2 1 . 1 106.2 45.9 35.7 6 889,
t944 431.1 223.3 20.5 1 9 8 . 8 696.2 20.1 z o . - )25.0 lJ./ | 726A
t945 2.9 4.4 1 3 . 3 245.3 564.8 345.8 54.5 23.5 12.4 r 8 . 8 9.5 | 299.6
1946 I ).1. 164.5 I 3 6 . 1 2 2 1 . 6 201.9 8 1r. 1 5 3 . 1 38.3 25.2 r 8 . 7 t 4 . l l l4t.t
1947 20.8 12.0 r 5 0 . 6 3 6 1 . 1 1 0 5 . 5 201.6 120.7 35.4 r6.0 r3.8 t 2 . l r 133.5
I 948 12.5 76.6 88.0 206.2 98.0 16.7 4l.0 9.1 9.9 I 1.3 666.8
1949 49.1 365.3 660.5 248.9 1 1 . 9 321.2 89.5 72.3 t6.3 13.7 l 963.5
I 950 2 3 . 1 20.8 74.6 2 4 7 . 1 68.8 22.9 10.3 Il.l 17.5 t9.3 Table 8.2 Na
1 9 5I 324.3 69.3 163.9 t ' 1 1 . 1 l 75 . 4 5.7 15.6 5.9 r 196.
1952 6.4 2 t 3 . 0 2 6 t . 2 156.1 367.3 1 8 3 . 9 3 6 . 1 t4.5 12.9 9.4 | 970.2
l9-53 I 1 . 9 7 1 . 3 ))9. \ t52.2
233.3 1 3 1 . 5 35.8 14.4 10.3 8.6 5.8 9t2.5
Example
1954 226.'7 241.1 1 8 3 . 7|
961.9 704.9 72.0 39.2 17.9 23.1 15.9 1 4 . 83 544.1 The monthl
l 955 344.2 366.8 136.2 J 2 6 . J 150.0 '76.7 30.6 22.9 l7.ti t 2 . 9 | 579.2
l 956 3 1 . 3 436.2 | 755.2 7 | . 1 140.9 1 6 3 . 8 5 3 .I rt.4
of the Wilgt
5 . 8 266.7 60.2 8 1 7 . 85 454.1271%
1957 l 582.5 385.4 345.2 140.6 15t.4 8 1 . 5 t94.5 26.5
20.2 26.8 29.9 84.4 3 668.9 t82% 69 years.Fr
I 958 31.0 201.2 456.4 2 8 1. 8 t 2 4 . 0 36.5 L l 134.5 21.9 21.8 22.O 25.9 l 382.I 6910 The ten higl
l 959 82.6 316.6 zJo- | t 2 t . 5 208.I 2 1 7 . 5 7 l . 8 8 r . l 1 8 . 9 21.6 31.6 r6 . 9 r 484.8 74%
I 960 64.2 I I 5 . 8 780.5 307.9 l0-5.6 121.9 386.7 52.5 67.2 t 7 . 2 1 8 . 32 072.5 l03%o
l96l 47.1 I U 3 . 7 2'79.3 ru4.8 7.0 I t . 1 6.8 1 0I. l 003.5 360
1962 28.9 232.8 1 9 9 . 3 390.0
217.6 l 355.9
t963 t ] . 6 184.0 t 2 9 . 3 463.3 1 3 0 . 3 246
l t69.0
1964 546.8l 1 0 5 . 0 496.9 2 2 1 . 1 25.5 2 924.5
I 965 7.1 49.0 269.9 9.1 For returnp
28Va
t966 16.4 609.8| 812.4 227.1 265.1
t961
3 436.1 171V0 precipitati
ll.l 283.8 5 8r. 60.3 t6.l
l 968 6.2 109.9 3 1 . 1
635.2 32Vo returnperio
130.I 36Vo
1969 268.0 148.6 331.2 232.2 3 8 . 9 :). I
| 210.1 60Va
19'70 68.6 155.7 r 8 . 8 146.8 230.2 36.2 300.5
r 049.8 52Vo
191| 4.3 296.5 5 8 2 . 1 525.6 91.'l 3 5 1. 0 7 t . 3
2 0 1 8 . l00Vo
1972 al )
52.1 t6.2 J)-+ 56.5 486.2 2410
1973 4 6 . 5 130.2 375.2 t 9 1. 1 5 9 1 . 3 90.2 95.5
2 236.3 I l l % o
r974 r3 . 3 394.0 844.9 8 8 1. 7 2 821.1 442.2 1 5 8 . 8 54.3
5 751.0
1975 125.3 450.31 1 3 3 . 9 976.6 592.8 220.1 33'7.5 4 935.1 24510
1976 284.2 260.6 249.4 I 0 1 5 . 2 1 3 3 . 1 96.8 14.6
2 475.9 12370
1971 244.3 11 5 7 . 5 301.4 294.1 1 9 8 . 3 3 3 . 6
2 465.'7123V0

86
 I ' r o l . . r l r i l i ' t i c l - l o o t l F . s itr r t . t t i o r l

Continuetlfrrtnt ltuge 86
geC1R001)
Fl

ra '<
-
-l F U Z z "l
p ;)
rt U H.,l ; U) F
Fl
;) r z tJ, z

,lil
f lL,l
1"' tll t0o
. l o+.sI 7e4.s II 10(la
299.41 s r . 3 l 2 4 . 6 1 rr5 (rlI .15.8 5 2 . 6
;ll r n l
U) F 6 6 . 0|
97u
15.5 I 2.-5 lJ.7I .137sti 218%, I r3.21 r q . zr ll 7 s . 3 5l 8 %
919 h.r0l I 0 5 . 2 I 0 8 . 6 r r-r r' ll 5 31 . 6 1 7 5 . 0 |,1.0
I
22.9 3;1.I 29.3 I 1 6 3 . 0 58% 3 t . 1 I (Xr.3 r 6 3 . 3 r e r .l l 3 l.+.2. llt3.2 l 4.61 tr)sl -r ' rl l 0.0 2tt.7| r :cg.s
I 6f(/r,
9u0 I
I
t 4 - 5I. 6 1. 7 : l l . l 1031.9 20l(,h
9Ul Iu.7 5 1 . 0 l l . 6 I 14.6 19.3 |0.3 l t.ltl r rJ | 0.(r IlJ.6 to.rl 366.2I l u %
I
5t.l 31.2 13.4 2 2 0 1 . 0 109(n,
76.u 20.5 ll.l 113.7 l'1.1 ,1.:l 4.2 4.2 0.0 0.0 0 . 0 ] 221.2. 1l(/r
9U2 1 1. 9
27.0 t '5 t t 1 3 . 321 560.4t 1 2 79 / a t3.1 lt.3 13.'+ 19.8 4lt.7 | 562.9 l8(,1
9lJ3 ,+.1.I 506.9 355.rJ 22.4.1 1 7 6 . 3 13.'/ 1 1. 5
I
:u.U
II -) 1 -| l r.r.e lI r 0 6 - 5 . |8 53c/n 5 0 . 5 3 5 . l 1 2 . 2 I t{3.2 10 7 . 6 l 3 . l 6.3 ().0 0.() 0.0 0.() 5 7 E . 9 )v,t
I 984 l\0.6
7au3l l(l(r.-s I t"t t '-t l lI ( ) . r h . lI l l | 7 I tt.6 r411.3 I t2.1 l 0 7 . t i 1 1 . 1 30.0 |0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 57:+.9 zty,(
l I I
9li5 0.0 I
4-5.e
l 3 s . 7l1( r l . h 6l 8 8 9 . -Ir 343(/r, 9lJ6 0 . 0 t.+lJ.3 I 7 0 . 0 231.7 li,+.I I I ll.-5 38.;t 5.5 1.9 0.0 0.0 20E.1I 0 t 2 . 6 .507
I I I
25.0 ll7 I 1 . 5 | 1 2 6 . 4 86(/r,
9ll7 7 2 7 . 7 lJ8.+.2 7llJ.9 3 l 1 . 1 n 3 . I I 0 . + l . 6 li.+.{) 2u.0 )2.6 10.u 32.1 4 4 . 14 1 4 r . l206(l
I li. tt 9.5 .1.5 I 2 9 9 . 6 65(;4 ,+li .+tr.6 20.6 3 134.6 ]r66(/r
L9l{t 60u.5 2 1 1 . 1 1 6 5 . 3 1.6 | 214.2 t 2 5 . 2 :llJ.6 51.4 I t.7 36.9
I tt.7 t , 1 I. | 1 . 3 t 1 . t1. l 51,1,
989 2 5 . 0 459.6 1 0 1 . 9 89.6 ltti.8 l1 | .,1 1 0 9 . 6 134.9 l 6 . t t l l J . l :-t.:+ ) 4 . 1 t . J l - J . l 6 S ' l
l3.lJ l2.l n.9 l r 3 3 . . 5 56(n,
avc 139.1 262.tt 32rJ.7 3 2r . 9 .+51J.2 203.2 9 2 . 0 4 1 t . 9 22.0 : l 1 . 5 2,+.5 6 7 . 5 l 0 l l . ( I ( X ) , 1
9.9 I l.-l 1.9 666.tt 33(n' ilvc 6 t)(1. l 3 . l ( n 16.3"1 | 6 . O t l 22.8"1, l o . l ( , 1 1.6(/r, ).1(,1 l . l ( / l 2 . 1 , 1 , | . ) t , 1 \ A(n,I ( X ) . 0 '
ll.7 2-5.1r t 9 6 3 . 5 98',/,,
il.1 t7.5 1 9 . 3 6 7 2 . 3 33'.1. l a m( g u a g eC 1 R 0 0 1 )
T a b l e8 . 2 N a t u r a l i s emdo n t h l fyl o w sV a a D
15.0 t5.6 - 5 . 9 | 1 9 6 . 2 59(/(
l3.l ll.9 r).1 | 970.2 98(;/r
9.0 lJ.(r 5.8 9 1 2 . 5 15"/,,
Example8.2
23.1 15.9 | :1.IJ 3 54.1.I l-/6(x, Themonthlyprccipitation valuesfor ZoneC8B (oneof the lour sub-catchmcnts
'79(,1,
22.9 l7.lt 1 2 . 9 | 519.2
of theWilge River,which runsinto theVaalDarn)areavailablefirr a periodof
266.J 6 0 . 2 I rI 7 . 8 5 .15.+.
I 2'7l('1,
2(r.ll
69years.Fromthis record,the monthlymaxirnurn1oreachyearwasextracted.
29.9 13.1.4I 6 6 1 1 . 9182%,
27.1J 22.0 2 5 . 9 I llt2. I 69(k, Thetenhishestvalucsare:
'7
21.6 3t.6 t 6 . 9 | :1lt4.lt 4(/a
t] .2 I l i . 3 2 012.5 l03,k,
l 0 .l | 1.3 34.7 I ( X ) 3 . 5 5Un. 360 rnrn 3 0 4m m 294 mm 264 nn 2-58mm
2 t 1. 6 3t . 8 26.9 r 3 5 5 . 9 6J()/o
246 nm 244 nnt 244 nm 243 mm 2 3 9m m
21.1 2t.0 7 1. O I 1 6 9 . 0 5 8 / o
t6.0 5.9 3 9 . . 52 921.5 145%,
3.6 9.3 1.1 5 6 5 . 9 28% Forreturnperiodsof 10, 100and I 000 years,estimatethe monthlymaximum
I8.7 20.3 2 2 . 1 3 ,136.I ll l(/o in ZoneCSB.Usethe Gringortenrelationship
precipitation the
for assigning
.5.7 5.9 u.5 6 3 5 . 2 32% returnperiods.
12.9 I 1.9 I 1 . 2 729.0 369/o
7.0 u.9 20.2 I 2 1 0 1. 60%
I 1.9 |3.3 1 9 . 6 I 0,t9.ti 52c/,,
t4.2. IU.7 t 6 . l 2 0 I ti.lJ lOOc/o
3.0 -53.6 I lJ..1 2 1 8 6 . 2 24o/o
20.4 16.'1 1 9 . 0 2 236.3 | | lo/o
24.1 26.u 5 6 . 6 5 7 . 5t . 0 286o/o
41.9 39..1 29.IJ 4 9 3 - 5I. 2154/o
20.8 2 2 . 8 29.1 2 415.9 l 2 3 V o
21.6 21.1 4 0 5 2 465.1 l 2 3 a / o

87
 Illtrgcluctiolr FI<x1dHl,clxr!ogy,
19

Solution
Precipitation Rank Return period
(mm) (years)
360 l2.l
306 2 41
294 -l 27
261 4 t9
2-5t{ 5 l5
216 6 t2 At th
)1/1
7 I I
244
. a p
IJ 9
. se
243 t)
IJ
pK
239 r0 1 . re
di

9.I Methr
This te
flood er
;- o ratio
. stan
tr
. regi
F

i4.1.139 ' hyd

o prot
z

e.2 Appr,
a The
a The
I(X) in c
Returnperiocl(years) The
Usethe equationof the regression ) (.r
line to calculatethe clesiredmonthly
maxrmum precipitation :
a The
M o n t h l ym a x i m u m( I : l 0 ) : 4 3 . 4 5 7 I n o The
t 0 * l 4 4 . g g : 2 4 5r n n r
Monthly maximum(f : 100): 43.457In a The
100 + 114.gg: 345 mm
M o n t h l ym a x i m u m( 1 : I 000) :
43.457InI 000 + 144.gg:445
mm

88