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AticleforMicro Libre
AticleforMicro Libre
1
Bich Thi Ngoc Tran
Introduction to Principles of Microeconomics
Instructor: Prof. Meherun Ahmed
Course Article Analysis
4 May 2014
Missing MH370 and its effects on the Malaysian economy
The MH370 flight on March 8th, 2014 has created a tremendous effect on both micro and macro
level. The two obvious effects are on the Malaysian Airlines and on the whole economy.
Firstly, it can be seen from the chart that since
the MH370 case, the company stock has
dropped dramatically. This is due to the
expectation of the stock buyers has lost. The
missing airplane without any tracks created a
big questions of security in flight. This led to
an expectation that there would be a drop in
the number of customers. Next, the profit that
the airlines makes would be decreased.
Finally, it would lead to a very normal
phenomenon that the stock owners would try
to sell all they had and there would be less
buyers interested in buying the airlines’ stock.
In this case, the number of sold stocks is
greater the number of bought stocks. Or in the other way, number of supplied stocks is more than
the number of demanded stocks, which leads to the decline in the stock price. In this case, the stock
has dropped dramatically indicating that the number of stock buyers decreased a lot.
As the stock buyers has sold the airlines’ stock, they would have capital to invest in new markets or
companies. This would promote other companies’ stock markets. In this case, the airlines’
competitors will have the advantages. For example, instead of taking direct flight from Beijing to
Kuala Lumpur, a passenger can take a connect flight and transit in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. This
would bring more profits to the competitors.
Though the airlines may be facing a decline in their profit, they cannot cut the number of flights
everyday. The reason is the nature of the business. Operating an airline costs a tremendous amount
of money. However, usually, this is longrun business. Thus, the company cannot just simply cut the
flights to reduce the cost. Rather, they have to keep the number of flights, schedules and destinations
to regain the passengers’ trust and loyalty.
Tran 2
Secondly, not only the airlines itself is affected, the whole Malaysia’s economy, especially tourism, is
affected. Data collected by the Malaysian Inbound Tourism Association of 70 companies has shown
that almost 30% of Chinese tourists have canceled their bookings to Malaysia after the missing
MH370. Though the Culture and Tourism Minister was quite confident that the effect would be so
huge as he said to the media, there have been many calculations and predictions as well as analyses
showing that the effects are actually having huge effect at least in this year 2014. In 2013, tourism
contributed 12% in the total GDP of Malaysia; and it was expected to contribute 12.5% in 2014.
The missing airline has caused approximately 30% loss in Chinese tourists who make up 12% in
total number of tourist arrivals in Malaysia. Some calculations show that Malaysia may face the loss
of RM4 billions (approximately US$1.23 billion). Included in the RM4 billions are thousands of job
cut off due to the crisis, huge amount of taxes by selling products to tourists and all the services
related with tourism. This may create a chained phenomenon in the whole economy or at least in the
sectors closely related with tourism, for example, producing souvenirs, operating restaurants and
hotels. Of course, the number of Chinese restaurants and hotels will decline due to the decline in
Chinese tourists’ demand.
From the two main points above, in some extend, we can conclude two things about elasticity. The
first one is that the demand elasticity of Malaysia Airlines Stock is quite high. One accident happens
and the market immediately showed a dramatically drop in the stock price. The second thing is the
elasticity of Chinese tourists’ demand. In the same way, the number of Chinese tourists also drops
dramatically after the missing aircraft.
Apart from the two main points, the missing aircraft also has indirect effect on other Asean
countries’ tourism. The reasons are: firstly, Malaysian Airlines is the dominating airline with almost all
international flights; the tourists may already lose their faith and loyalty for the airline; thus, they may
choose an alternative destination. This would bring them other choices from other countries in the
region, especially if those countries have similar landscapes, weather and environment. The second
reason is that if the passengers decide to take connected flights and transit in a country, that country
will have an opportunity to promote its own beauty and attract the tourists.
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In conclusion, the missing MH370 has a great impact on the airlines itself and the whole economy of
Malaysia, too. From the demand of passengers to demand of stock buyers, from the chained effect
(complements) in the tourism industry of the country to the opportunities given to other counties
(close substitutes), we have been witnessing the vast impact of the accident. All of these again clarify
all the theories about demand, supply, elasticity, substitutes and complements. However, it should
also be emphasized again that the nature of business is a key point for the airlines’ behaviors in this
case.
Article:
http://news.malaysia.msn.com/tmi/malaysiatofacelossesofuptorm4billionintourismrevenue
duetomh370sayanalysts
Other sources:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101542005
http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/malaysia/malaysia_economy.html
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/chinesetouristssnubbingmalaysiaaftermh370
ministeradmits
http://shanghaiist.com/2014/03/27/chinesetouristsboycottmalaysia.php
http://www.eturbonews.com/40251/tourismcontribute125percentmalaysiasgdpnextyear
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MAS:MK/chart
http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014/04/18/Ng30ofChinesetouristscancelbookings
toMalaysia/