Dinamika Sistem

Tugas
2021-06-10
Dinamika Sistem
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Simulation modelling comprises a set of techniques for creating digital representations of
real-world systems for the purpose of studying, analysing and predicting performance - as
well as identifying real-world interventions to improve system behaviour.
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System Dynamics is the most abstract of the three simulation methodologies that this article
explores.
●
It is concerned with capturing the dynamic nature of the structure of a complex system,
rather than the effects introduced by the individual properties of the actors - the people,
products or events - within the system.
●
It recognises that the structure of the many circular, interconnected and time-delayed
relationships between a system's main components are often just as - if not even more -
important in determining behaviours than the individual components themselves.
●
In that way it can be considered a holistic or integrative approach to the modelling and
simulation of systems.
*) https://www.silicoai.com/blog/the-right-tool-for-the-job
Dinamika Sistem
●
Simulation modelling comprises a set of techniques for creating digital representations of
real-world systems for the purpose of studying, analysing and predicting performance - as
well as identifying real-world interventions to improve system behaviour.
●
System Dynamics is the most abstract of the three simulation methodologies that this article
explores.
●
It is concerned with capturing the dynamic nature of the structure of a complex system,
rather than the effects introduced by the individual properties of the actors - the people,
products or events - within the system.
●
It recognises that the structure of the many circular, interconnected and time-delayed
relationships between a system's main components are often just as - if not even more -
important in determining behaviours than the individual components themselves.
●
In that way it can be considered a holistic or integrative approach to the modelling and
simulation of systems.
*) https://www.silicoai.com/blog/the-right-tool-for-the-job
Dinamika Sistem
●
Simulation modelling comprises a set of techniques for creating digital representations of
real-world systems for the purpose of studying, analysing and predicting performance - as
well as identifying real-world interventions to improve system behaviour.
●
System Dynamics is the most abstract of the three simulation methodologies that this article
explores.
●
It is concerned with capturing the dynamic nature of the structure of a complex system,
rather than the effects introduced by the individual properties of the actors - the people,
products or events - within the system.
●
It recognises that the structure of the many circular, interconnected and time-delayed
relationships between a system's main components are often just as - if not even more -
important in determining behaviours than the individual components themselves.
●
In that way it can be considered a holistic or integrative approach to the modelling and
simulation of systems.
*) https://www.silicoai.com/blog/the-right-tool-for-the-job
Alat
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Vensim: https://vensim.com
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Powersim: https://www.powersim.com
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InsightMaker: https://insightmaker.com
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Anylogic: https://www.anylogic.com
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Open source- SD in Python:
https://systemdynamics.org/tools/useful-open-source-tools/
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The Future of Decision Making
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Manusia mengambil keputusan sampai 35,000 kali per hari*
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Banyak keputusan adalah tidak penting, rutin. Misal:
– Mandi sekarang atau nanti?
– Bawa payung atau tidak sekarang?
– Jalan kaki atau naik sepeda
●
Keputusan tersebut sering dibuat karena kebiasaan, atau pengalaman
atau bahkan tanpa disadari.
●

*) Rodney Taylor, 2021, https://www.silicoai.com/blog/the-future-of-decision-making

The Future of Decision Making
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Our experiences amass to form knowledge, this knowledge produces our
intuition, which leads us to ‘gut instinct’ decision making.
●
Decision makers are faced with a barrage of information. From customer data
to real-time sales information, decision makers have a deeper appreciation of
business drivers than ever before. And yet, for all these advances the
mechanics of decision making have not really progressed at all.
●
Data and analysis may have deepened our experience and extended our
intuition, but decision making continues to be a leap of faith, with instinct still
playing a significant part. How then can we use all the technological advances
that we have made to drive better decisions?
●

*) Rodney Taylor, 2021, https://www.silicoai.com/blog/the-future-of-decision-making

The Future of Decision Making
●
Decision Intelligence is a framework to deploy intelligence inside decision
models. They are a graphical and quantitative representation of the structure
and dynamics of a business. In recreating this structure, it is possible to model
how a decision will cascade through an organisation. A decision model could
incorporate data, forecasts, and even intuition.
●
Building decision models is surprisingly intuitive. There is no requirement for
any specialist skill beyond an understanding of how a business works. I could
draw out a decision model using a simple pen and paper, sketching out the
causal steps that make up my business processes. But of course, it is by
building quantitative computational decision models that I can develop the
capability to quickly test decisions and have the machine recommend optimal
interventions.
*) Rodney Taylor, 2021, https://www.silicoai.com/blog/the-future-of-decision-making
Tugas
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Cari artikel tentang kegiatan angkutan laut.
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Buat model Dinamika Sistem sederhana, minimum:
– Satu level/ stock
– Satu rate/debit/flow
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Buat diagram sebab akibat
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Buat diagram Dinamika Sistem; batasan waktu: tentukan sendiri
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Buat program dengan Vensim/ Powersim/ InsightMaker
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Gunakan data2 yang tersedia di statistik. Kalau tidak ada silakan gunakan data dummy
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Tunjukkan hasilnya dalam grafik
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Jelaskan tentang bekerjanya model, dan hasil luaran promodelan
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Kirim dalam format presentasi *.odp atau *.ppt, sebelum 16 Juni 2021, 21:00