Central Bank Digital Currencies Making Waves as Crypto Goes Institutional

March 19, 2021
ASEAN X Macro
Cryptocurrencies Making Waves
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) – How Far is Economics

Suhaimi Ilias, Regional Co-Head, Macro Research
this Future? Chua Hak Bin, Regional Co-Head, Macro Research
Dr Zamros Dzulkafli, Economist
In June 2016, then-Fed Chair Janet Yellen urged central banks to delve Lee Ju Ye, Economist
into research regarding Bitcoin, blockchain and distributed ledger
technologies. Since then, there has been a burst of exploratory research
Foreign Exchange
and trials by global central banks on wholesale and retail Central Bank
Saktiandi Supaat, Head, FX Research,
Digital Currencies (CBDCs). Even so, a BIS survey in 4Q 2020 showed that Malayan Banking Berhad
STRATEGY
60% of central banks surveyed do not expect to issue any type of CBDC in
the next 1-6 years. However, this unwilling majority had shrunk over the Fixed Income
Winson Phoon, Head, Fixed Income Research
years which suggests an increasing, albeit gradual, likelihood of global
CBDC roll-out/issuance. The future of widespread use of CBDCs whilst still
distant has been getting nearer. China was one of the first few central
banks to start researching on digital currencies in 2014 and its progress
seems to be the swiftest amongst major economies with the 2022 Winter
Olympics speculated to be an opportunity for PBoC to roll-out e-RMB to be
used by foreign participants and audience. In ASEAN, Thailand and
Singapore seem to have the most intensive research and development on
Regional
CBDCs, having experimented in cross-border payments while Malaysia,

Indonesia and Philippines are still at the earlier stages of research.
Bitcoin Has Gone Institutional

2020 is widely recognized as the year bitcoin goes institutional. There are
a handful of anecdotal examples of institutional interests in
cryptocurrencies picking up pace. Fidelity launched its inaugural bitcoin-
only fund while MicroStrategy announced adding Bitcoin to Treasury;
PayPal announced that its users in US can buy, sell and hold 4
cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash.
This year, BlackRock added Bitcoin futures as an eligible investment to 2
funds, Tesla revealed it bought US$1.5bn worth of Bitcoin while Morgan
Stanley becomes the first big US bank to offer Bitcoin funds to its wealthier
clients. Other ways to gauge institutional activity is via Grayscale’s Bitcoin
Trust (BGTC) – the only publicly traded exchange-traded fund investing in
Bitcoin. Its crypto assets under management (AUM) rose 1,500% since
inception in early-2020 and Grayscale highlighted that the growth was due
to institutional investors, particularly the hedge funds.
Notably, the massive growth in Bitcoin interest has occurred alongside
Bitcoin being given many “labels” or attributes. In the last section of this
report, we discuss whether some of these are apt, and reveal the fluid
nature of Bitcoin price dynamics in its wild ride thus far.
Source: Maybank FX Research & Strategy
THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY MAYBANK KIM ENG RESEARCH Co. Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 099/03/2012
SEE PAGE 30 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
ASEAN X Macro
Macro Views
ASEAN-6 Key Macroeconomic Indicators chuahb@maybank-ke.com.sg, (65) 6231 5830
Real GDP growth (%) Headline Inflation (%, average) Policy Rate (%, year-end)
2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E
Global 3.5 2.8 (3.5) 5.1 3.8 3.6 2.8 2.3 2.5 2.6 -
US 3.0 2.2 (3.5) 4.1 3.1 2.4 1.8 1.2 2.0 2.0 2.375 1.625 0.125 0.125 0.125
Indonesia 5.2 5.0 (2.1) 5.3 5.0 3.2 3.0 2.0 2.4 3.0 6.00 5.00 3.75 3.50 3.50
Malaysia 4.8 4.3 (5.6) 5.1 5.0 1.0 0.7 (1.2) 2.6 1.8 3.25 3.00 1.75 1.75 2.00
Philippines 6.2 6.0 (9.5) 6.3 6.2 5.2 2.5 2.6 4.0 2.0 4.75 4.00 2.00 2.00 2.50
Singapore 3.5 1.3 (5.4) 4.5 3.0 0.4 0.6 (0.2) 0.8 1.0 1.89 1.77 0.41 0.40 0.40
Thailand 4.2 2.3 (6.1) 3.5 4.5 1.1 0.7 (0.8) 1.2 0.8 1.75 1.25 0.50 0.50 0.50
Vietnam 7.1 7.0 2.9 6.8 6.7 3.5 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.3 6.25 6.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
Exports of Goods & Services (%) Gross Fixed Capital Formation (%) Private Consumption (%)
2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
Indonesia 6.5 (0.9) (7.7) 6.6 4.0 6.7 4.5 (4.9) 4.8 5.2 5.1 5.0 (2.6) 4.9 4.7
Malaysia 2.2 (1.1) (8.8) 7.5 7.6 1.4 (2.1) (14.5) 8.5 7.4 8.0 7.6 (4.3) 5.9 6.1
Philippines 11.5 2.4 (16.7) 7.9 6.4 12.9 3.9 (27.5) 11.1 9.2 5.6 5.9 (7.9) 5.8 6.1
Singapore 7.7 0.1 (4.3) 4.7 4.5 (4.3) 1.2 (13.7) 5.5 4.5 4.0 3.3 (14.1) 4.5 2.9
Thailand 3.4 (3.0) (19.4) 5.8 7.5 3.8 2.0 (4.8) 4.2 3.4 4.6 4.0 (1.0) 3.0 3.7
Vietnam 14.3 6.7 3.0 11.0 12.0 8.7 8.3 4.1 8.5 9.0 7.3 7.4 0.6 7.0 7.1
Source: CEIC, Maybank Kim Eng
USD vs. Major & Regional Currencies Forecast saktiandi@maybank.com.sg, (65) 6320 1379
Current
1Q2021 2Q2021 3Q2021 4Q2021 1Q2022
(as of 18 Mar)
DXY (Dollar Index) 91.9 90.5 89.7 88.5 87.6 87.6
Japanese Yen 108.9 104.0 104.0 103.0 103.0 102.0
Euro 1.19 1.21 1.22 1.24 1.25 1.25
Pounds Sterling 1.39 1.40 1.43 1.44 1.45 1.45
Australian Dollar 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.82 0.83 0.83
Renminbi 6.51 6.45 6.35 6.25 6.25 6.20

Indian Rupee 72.53 71.00 70.00 69.00 69.00 68.00
HK Dollar 7.76 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.80
Taiwan Dollar 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 28.0
Korean Won 1,124 1,090 1,060 1,050 1,050 1,060
Singapore Dollar 1.344 1.320 1.300 1.290 1.280 1.275

Malaysian Ringgit 4.11 4.02 3.95 3.90 3.90 3.88
Indonesian Rupiah 14,410 13,900 13,700 13,600 13,500 13,400
Thai Baht 30.82 30.30 30.10 29.90 29.70 29.50
Philippines Peso 48.69 48.25 48.00 47.75 47.50 47.25
Vietnamese Dong 23,064 22,800 22,700 22,700 22,500 22,300
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank FX Research & Strategy
March 19, 2021 2

ASEAN X Macro
Fixed Income winsonphoon@maybank-ke.com.sg, (65) 6812 8807
Rates Outlook Rationale Recent data/updated thoughts

US: Bearish There is still upside risks to the UST curve as we think UST yields extend their surge sending 10y UST
market hasn’t fully priced for a brighter US growth and yield above 1.70%, the highest since Jan 2020. As
inflation prospects on dissipation of Covid-19 risks that the Fed still expect to hold rates near zero until
should progress in sync with the widening of vaccine 2023, short end yields remain anchored and the
coverage. The Fed may have higher tolerance for yield curve steepened further to 155bps along the
increase. 10y yield has overshot our target of 1.50%, and 2y10y.
could stay elevated in the near term.
China: Bullish Premature for PBOC to start rate tightening in 1H21. Early this week the PBOC injected CNY100b via
Liquidity remains a key driver and is expected to stay 1y MLFs at 2.95%, a sign that it continues to
neither too tight nor too loose. Maintaining market maintain reasonable and ample liquidity. 10y CGB
stability is key. With China still one of the fastest economy yield stood firm against the continuing UST selloff
to recovery from the pandemic, supply not expected to remaining in the same 3.20-3.30% range.
be heavy this year, and foreign demand remains strong.
Indonesia: Bullish Raised to bullish from neutral as risk-reward has BI kept policy rate unchanged at 3.5% as widely
improved. Surplus of funds and BI as a standby buyer expected. Amid increased financial market
alleviate heavy supply risk, and lower foreign share volatility, BI might have stepped up intervention
moderates FX risk. BI is expected to stay on hold for the on both the FX and bond market. BI has purchased
rest of 2021. IndoGB’s high yield appeal could stand out if IDR65t of IndoGBs YTD as of 16 Mar.
UST yield increase turns orderly, and 10y IndoGB yield may
fall back 6.50%. Key risk to our view is continued UST
volatility which adds pressure to the Rupiah.
Malaysia: Neutral Raised to neutral from mildly bearish on better risk- 10y GII offers relative value with around 20bps
reward. Ultra-long MGSs look steep by historical standard, spread over 10y MGS. We think the spread may
and screen cheap relative to regional sovereign curves. narrow back to 5-10bps as supply pressure eases
The curve could stay steep (but not steeper), or start to and market conditions stabilise.
flatten if 1) economic recovery normalizes rates, or 2)
lower rate volatility lessen duration risk aversion. We
expect 10y MGS yield to stay in the 3.30-3.50% range in
the near term.
Singapore: Bearish MAS is expected to keep the S$NEER slope at zero SGS yield curve shifted 7-11bps higher since 5 Mar
appreciation in April. Overall duration profile of SGS in line with the UST selloff, but did not steepen
remains more favourable than that of UST, justifying the like the UST yield curve, likely a reflection of
negative SGS-UST spreads. SGS supply, including SINGA, SGS’ more favourable supply profile. Short-term
has room for recalibration should market demand SGD rates remained stable overall.
weaken.
March 19, 2021 3

ASEAN X Macro
Focus Piece: saktiandi@maybank.com.sg, (65) 6320 1379

tanyx@maybank.com.sg, (65) 6320 1378
wongkl@maybank.com.sg, (65) 6320 1347
Central Bank Digital Currencies – How fionalim@maybank.com.sg, (65) 6320 1374
Far Away is this Future?

In June 2016, then Fed Chair Janet Yellen urged central banks to delve into
research regarding Bitcoin, blockchain and distributed ledger technologies. At that
time, Bitcoin had been in existence for around 7 years (since 2009) and the rise of
crypto assets amongst other factors have arguably spurred more central banks to
foray into exploratory research and developmental work on Central Bank Digital
Currencies (CBDCs). PBoC had started its research into its own digital currency in
2014. While the current Treasury Secretary’s stance towards Bitcoin and other
cryptocurrencies had largely been dismissive, Yellen highlighted that “Blockchain
could have very significant implications for the payments system and the conduct
of business”.
Understanding CBDCs
CBDC is a new form of digital central bank money – a liability of the central bank,
denominated in in an existing unit of account that can serve as both a medium of
exchange and a store of value. To some extent, central banks have been using
digital money as reserves or settlement account balances that are held by
commercial banks or non-bank financial institutions. Taking reference from the Mar
2018 publication by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) for better clarity,
- the CBDC that we refer to here forth refers to the digital form of central bank
money that is not used as balance in traditional reserves and settlement
accounts.
To further illuminate the peculiarities of CBDCs, Bech and Garratt had presented
the taxonomy of money to bring out four properties of money and how different
forms of CBDCs along with other types of monies are categorized.
The Taxonomy of Money (aka Money Flower)
Source: Bank for International Settlements, Bech and Garratt (2017)
March 19, 2021 4

ASEAN X Macro
For simplicity’s sake however, CBDCs are more commonly divided into two
broad categories 1) Wholesale and 2) General Purpose, retail.
Since 2016, there has been a burst of exploratory research and trials by global
central banks on wholesale and retail CBDCs.
Most research and trials conducted by central banks so far were primarily on the
potential feasibility and aimed for a proof of concept. According to a BIS survey in
4Q 2020, 60% of the central banks were still in the experimental stage of work or
aiming for proofs-of-concept on CBDC while only 14% have moved towards the more
advanced, development and pilot stage. BIS also highlighted that 60% of central
banks do not expect to issue any type of CBDC in the next 1-6 years. However, this
unwilling majority had shrunk over the years which suggests an increasing, albeit
gradual, likelihood of global CBDC roll-out/issuance. The future of widespread use
of CBDCs whilst still distant has been getting nearer.
The Likelihood of CBDC Issuance Increased
Share of Respondents (%)
Note: Short-term denotes 1-3 years; Medium Term denotes 1-6 years. “Likely” combines
“very likely” and “somewhat likely”. “Unlikely” combines “very unlikely” and “somewhat
unlikely”.
Source: BIS Central Bank Survey on CBDCs
According to the same survey conducted by BIS, 7 out of 8 central banks that are
in the advanced stage of work on CBDCs are from emerging markets. It is worth
noting that their local circumstances were key motivations for the central banks
to take CBDCs more seriously. Most of them have an aim of improving financial
inclusion either due to disperse population or a lack of bank accounts for a large
part of the population. For Venezuela, President Maduro was keen on gaining
access to other “international sources of finance” as the country and its currency
are hurt by ongoing hyperinflation. The disparity in demographics and economic
environment explained why DM central banks are less compelled to progress
further in their work on CBDCs.
March 19, 2021 5

ASEAN X Macro
Despite a lack of progress in CBDCs, there is an undeniable broad interest in the

topic.
Motivations for Work on CBDCs Concerns/Hurdles to CBDC adoption
1. Decline in Cash Transactions 1. Legality of CBDCs
The sharp decline in cash transaction in the past In Oct 2020, China drafted a PBoC law to give legal
decade is a strong motivation for central banks such status to the DCEP system and to include the digital
as Riksbank and PBoC to progress relatively quickly in yuan as part of the fiat currency. However not
their respective works on CBDCs as digital currencies every country can adjust their legislation as swiftly
can become an effective central bank instrument as to provide central banks the authority to issue
digital payments become prevalent in these digital currencies.
societies.
2. Cybersecurity and Privacy Issues
2. Threats of Other Digital Assets
The distributed ledger created for CBDCs may still
More compelling is the potential threat of be vulnerable to cyber-threats and privacy issues.
cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, stablecoins like
3. Scalability
Diem. Tencent and Alibaba (facilitating >90% of
mobile transactions) were also said to be Most of the projects on CBDCs are done with a few
experimenting with digital assets at some point. participants. The Project Jasper-Ubin found that
Monetary policy could be significantly less effective even though cross-border payment between
if cryptocurrencies were to play a greater part of the Canada and Singapore is a success, the scalability
economy (somewhat like dollarization). China has of networks could be limited.
banned all cryptocurrency trading and initial coin
4. Financial Stability
offerings in 2017.
The role of financial intermediation could be
3. Financial Inclusivity
played more by the central bank with the CBDC
A strong motivation for EM countries to push for issuance. There could be unintended effect on
CBDCs. As we have mentioned in the earlier section, market liquidity and risk assets and as a result
CBDCs are seen as a viable tool to loop adults that do impact market functioning. Depending on the
not yet have a bank account into the financial system characteristic of the CBDC (interest-bearing or
and enable the individuals to reap the benefits of the otherwise), demand could be redirected away from
access. The ease of payments with CBDC could also the repo market.
help people with lower literacy levels use digital
5. Potential Compatibility Issues for Cross-
payments.
border Payments and Anti-money laundering
4. Potential Efficiency Gains and Improvement enforcements
in terms of Credit/Settlement Risks
Cross-border payments using CBDCs are found to be
The use of distributed ledger technology and peer-to- potentially less effective if countries use different
peer transfers can allow CBDCs transactions to occur distributed ledger technologies. Due to the token-
beyond normal banking hours for wholesale banking nature (anonymity) of the CDBCs, AML/CFT
transactions. The efficiency gains can also occur in requirements could be hard to enforce. In addition,
retail transactions. Project Jasper-Ubin found there is a greater likelihood that arbitrage and
improvements in counterparty risk for cross-border speculative activity could take place given the
interbank payments and settlements. decentralized nature and potentially increase the
FX volatility during times of stress.
Source: Various Research papers including Payments Canada, BIS, MAS
March 19, 2021 6

ASEAN X Macro
The Work Done on CBDCs

The scope of research and trials done in most central banks were to some extent
similar, broadly covering these aspects as listed:
√ Tokenised Cash (and some other securities such as bonds, equities)
√ Digital Ledger Technology (DLT) with Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS),
use of Liquidity Saving Mechanisms (LSM)
√ Delivery Vs. Payment – A settlement process to ensure payment is made
before or at the same time as the delivery of the securities.
√ Cross Border Payment
With the use of DLT, central banks digital currencies could be available beyond the
usual banking hours. Central banks need to decide on other aspects of their CBDCs
such as the degree of anonymity; transfer mechanism (peer-to-peer, or via an
intermediary); interest-bearing (or not); potential quota on holdings for
participants. Central banks may develop their distributed ledgers with different
combinations of the abovementioned. Combine that with the varied
infrastructure, the eventual properties and behaviours of CBDCs issued by
respective sovereigns along with their impact on payments/monetary policies
are thus likely to vary.
Cross-border payments typically require the collaboration of at least two central
banks such as the Project Jasper-Ubin which was borne from the partnership
between the Bank of Canada and the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Project Jasper-Ubin
Between Mar-Jun 2016, the Bank of Canada launched Project Jasper in partnership with Payments Canada and five
R3 member banks in Canada– to gain an understanding of how distributed ledger technology can change payments in
Canada. As of the completion of Phase 3 in 2018, Bank of Canada has achieved a proof of concept for the viability in
payment, securities settlement system “in a manner aimed at respecting the privacy and scalability requirement of
the Canadian system”.
In 2016, MAS built on the experience of Project Jasper, using the architecture, code and lessons learnt to apply on
Project Ubin. Phase 1 was launched in Nov 2016. The five phases of Project Ubin which spanned over 5 years include:
Phase 1: tokenising SGD – proof of concept project to conduct interbank payments using Blockchain technology
Phase 2: re-imagining RTGS; - prototype of 3 different models for decentralized interbank payment and settlements
with LSM
Phase 3: Delivery versus Payment (DvP), - capabilities for settlement of tokenized assets across different blockchain
platforms
Phase 4: Cross-border Payment vs. Payment (PvP)
Phase 5: Broad ecosystem collaboration to explore the development of the multi-currency payments model1
Phase 4 of Project Ubin was the collaboration with Bank of Canada that gave birth to Project Jasper-Ubin and had a
successful experiment on cross-border and cross-currency payments (SGD-CAD) using CDBCs. Thereafter, MAS went
on to phase 5 and managed to develop a blockchain-based multi-currency payments network that enabled payments
to be carried out in different currencies on the same network. The goal is to better understand the potential
efficiency gains for the broader economy that could be attained through better connectivity and integration.
Link - https://www.mas.gov.sg/schemes-and-initiatives/project-ubin
March 19, 2021 7

ASEAN X Macro
China’s Digital Currency, Electronic Payment (DC/EP), e-RMB

The Development of DC/EP
2014 Former PBoC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan sets up project group on DC/EP
2016 Research Institute to Develop CBDC
Sep 2017 Initial Coin Offering and Trading of Cryptocurrencies Banned
2019 Pilot Programs started to conduct closed testing of the digital yuan
2020 Trials of the digital currency were conducted in Shenzhen, Suzhou, Chengdu and Xiongan with
hypothetical scenarios related to the 2022 Winter Olympics
Oct 2020 China drafted a PBoC law to give legal status to the DCEP system and to include the digital
yuan as part of the fiat currency.
2021 Jan – Chengdu distributed CNY50mn in a lottery trial on 27 Jan.

Feb - China handed out CNY40mn in another public lottery as part of digital currency tests.
200,000 red packets were distributed in Beijing and Suzhou starting on 10 Feb 2021. 10,000
businesses in Suzhou were expected to accept the e-RMB during the trial.
Quick Understanding of DC/EP or rather e-RMB
 Legal tender
 Part of the fiat currency system, replacing Money Supply M0 (bank notes and coins)
 Not interest-bearing
 Adopts a two-tier system:
o Layer 1 - PboC will issue and redeem e-RMB via commercial banks
o Layer 2 – Commercial banks redistribute CBDC to retail market participants.
China was one of the first few central banks to start researching on digital currencies in 2014 and its progress seems
to be the swiftest amongst major economies. However, it seems a tad more unwilling to use blockchain and
distributed ledger technology at this point, noting technical issues and the immense requirement of computing
power to verify each transaction also impose a significantly limit the speed of transactions. The technology is thus
not scalable. PBoC Yi Gang had said that there is no preset specific technical routes for DCE. Both blockchain
technology and existing electronic payment solutions are under consideration. Looking forward, there are more
lottery trials expected in more venues this year. The 2022 Winter Olympics present an opportunity for PBoC to roll-
out e-RMB to be used by foreign participants and audience.
March 19, 2021 8

ASEAN X Macro
State of CBDC Progress, Cryptocurrency Stances in ASEAN
Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Philippines

Time of Nov 2016, Nov 2017, Feb 2017, Aug 2018, Jul 2020,
Initial Wholesale CBDC - Potentially Wholesale CBDC -
Foray, CBDC Wholesale & Retail
Focus
Notable 5 phases of CBDC Trials: Working paper on Working Paper on CBDC trials: Launch of CBDC
Milestones - Tokenised cash implications of implications of - Tokenised working group
for CBDC or CBDC CBDC Cash/Bonds
Related - Real Time Gross Authorizing sale of
Projects Settlement (RTGS) Blockchain-related BI joined the Task - RTGS retail govt bonds
developments: Force for the through a
- Delivery of tokenised - 9 banks have Acceleration and - Cross-border blockchain
security asset against collaborated on Expansion of payment project powered app
payment of cash asset. developing Regional “m-CBDC Bridge” developed by
blockchain Digitalization (together with UnionBank
- Cross border payment applications for (Satgas P2DD) to HKMA, CBUAE,
(in conjunction with BoC) trade finance support national PBoC Digital Likely no plans to
digitization and Currency Institute) launch CBDC before
- Integration and 2025 vision of the 2023
connectivity with other Indonesian Payment
blockchain networks for System Blueprint.
other functional uses.
Central Jan 2021 – Payment 2014 - BNM stated BI prohibits the use 2018 - BoT banned BSP recently
Bank’s Services Act is enhanced that Bitcoin is not of volatile FIs from investing tightened its
Stance to tighten control over legal tender. cryptocurrencies in cryptocurrency, guidelines on
Towards cryptocurrencies – any for payment in the offering cryptocurrencies.
Jan 2021 – There
Cryptocurre entity that facilitates the country. However, cryptocurrency
are 56 firms dealing
ncies transmission, exchange Indonesia allows for exchanges and Jan 2021 - The
with digital
(Typically or storage of digital the ownership of creating platforms exchange, transfer
currencies
Latest) payment tokens (DPT) crypto-assets and for crypto trading. and safekeeping of
reporting to BNM as
aka cryptocurrencies will for trades through virtual assets, or
institutions. BNM 17 Mar 2021 - BoT
now have to be licensed. an official instruments
cautioned uncovered private
exchange rupiah- enabling control
“consumers should developments of
backed stablecoins over them will be
exercise the stablecoin known
(such as IDRT). subject to the
necessary caution as THT and deemed
BSP’s licensing
and understand any activity
requirements.
risks associated involving THT as
with digital illegal.
currencies”.
Source: Various media sources and central bank announcements
March 19, 2021 9

ASEAN X Macro
Global Cryptocurrency Market Trends – An Overview
“All truth passes through three stages. First it is ridiculed.

Second it is violently opposed. Third it is accepted as being
self-evident.”
Philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer
Institutional and Retail Interests in Cryptocurrencies is On the Rise
Cryptocurrency is no longer a niche topic and is fast becoming mainstream. Google

search trends revealed that “crypto” searches on Google soared to an all-time high
in Feb-2021, far exceeding the previous peak in early-2018. The keyword “crypto”
even received a perfect Google Trends score of 100 (an indication of maximum
relative interest). Elsewhere on Twitter, total tweet volumes devoted to
cryptocurrency was 181% higher in Jan-2021 than a year ago.
Google Search Trends for “Crypto” soared to all-time High Tweet Volumes on Crypto-related products such as bitcoin,
and Hit a Perfect Score of 100 Ethereum, Litecoin, etc. Saw Momentum Picking Up Pace
Source: Google Search Trends, The TIE, Maybank FX Research & Strategy
And to some extent, gradually looking like an “asset class”. For instance, there is
Bitcoin futures trading on CME Group’s derivative exchange while S&P Dow Jones
indices is looking to launch a cryptocurrency index in partnership with crypto data
provider Lukka this year (an indication of investor driven demand for crypto
benchmarking)
For this section, we look at global cryptocurrency market trends, in terms of its
growing size, adoption and usage.
For a start, we refer to a leading crypto analytics and research firm, Chainalysis’
2020 Global Crypto Adoption Index. The index ranked all 154 countries according
to these 4 metrics: (1) on-chain cryptocurrency value received; (2) on-chain retail
value transferred; (3) no. of on-chain cryptocurrency deposits and (4) peer-to-peer
(P2P) exchange trade volume and each metric weighted by purchasing power parity
per capita.
March 19, 2021 10

ASEAN X Macro
We extracted the table and populate where ASEAN countries compare below.
Global Crypto Adoption Index – Top 10, ASEAN and Selected Countries
Overall Country Countries’ Rank of sub metric feeding into the

Rank Global Crypto Adoption Index
On-Chain On-Chain No. of On- Peer-to-

value retail Chain peer
received value crypto exchange
received deposits traded
volume
1 Ukraine 4 4 7 11
2 Russia 7 8 5 9
3 Venezuela 19 14 15 2
4 China 1 1 95 53
5 Kenya 37 11 57 1
6 USA 5 6 39 16
7 South Africa 12 9 41 10
8 Nigeria 14 7 112 3
9 Colombia 25 18 61 4
10 Vietnam 2 2 44 81
11 India 3 3 129 32
12 Thailand 17 15 21 33
14 UK 15 19 42 17
16 Philippines 9 13 91 44
17 South Korea 8 10 24 97
23 HK & Macau 39 62 10 23
25 Malaysia 38 27 47 36
32 Indonesia 11 12 75 103
50 Singapore 73 94 8 54
Source: 2020 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report (Jul 2019 – Jun 2020) by Chainalysis,
Maybank FX Research & Strategy (ASEAN countries shaded)
Crypto Activities is Global. China and US are the prominent economic

powerhouses that made it to the top 10 list of crypto adoption while EM countries
such as Ukraine, Russia and Venezuela top the list. Amongst ASEAN, Vietnam takes
the lead, coming in at 10th place, with other ASEAN nations, Thailand and
Philippines not too far off. Singapore lags other ASEAN nations, coming in at 50 th
position.
Asia Leads in Crypto Transaction. In terms of cryptocurrency transaction

(professional traders and non-professional, individuals), measured by both on-
chain value received and on-chain retail value received, China, Vietnam and India
top the list.
East Asia is World’s Largest Cryptocurrency Market. The region accounts for 31%
of all cryptocurrency transacted in the last 12 months. Addresses located in the
region received $107bn worth of cryptocurrency, 77% more than second highest
receiving region – Western Europe. Much of it is likely due to crypto mining activity.
Using aggregate data from participating mining pools such as BTC.com, Poolin and
ViaBTC, which represents approximately 37% of bitcoin’s total hashrate, China
March 19, 2021 11
ASEAN X Macro
alone controls >70% of Bitcoin’s global hashrate – a measurement of how much

computing power goes towards mining Bitcoin. US took 3rd place with 5.3% while
Malaysia is 4th place with 3.8% share of global hashrate.
- Breakdown by China city level puts Xinjiang (30%) and Sichuan (18.6%) in
the lead. Lack of regulations and extremely cheap electrical rates in
China previously saw the rise of mining activities there but according to
a recent report from 8btc, Chinese Bitcoin miners have started to
gradually migrate to Nordic countries like Sweden and Norway due to eco-
friendly green energy in the region.
Bitcoin Mining Market Share (% of Global Hashrate)
Note: Underlying data provided by BTC.com, Poolin and ViaBTC (data from 3Q 2019 to 2Q
2020)
Source: University of Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance, Maybank FX Research &
Strategy
Central & Southern Asia and Oceania region has the 5th most cryptocurrency
activity out of the 8 regions with $40bn cryptocurrency received. This
represents 11% of all crypto transacted. Vietnam and India take the lead. Retail
activity is high and the study suggests users are turning to cryptocurrencies for
remittances and everyday transactions.
Value Received on-chain by Country (Central & South Asia and Oceania region)
Source: Chainalysis
March 19, 2021 12

ASEAN X Macro
As an Alternative Store of Value and Hedge in Times of Uncertainties. The report

also noted that Venezuela represents an example of what drives crypto adoption
in EM countries and how citizens use crypto to mitigate economic instability.
- Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) has put in circulation 1mio Bolivar

banknote, in addition to new banknotes of 200,000 and 500,000,
reflecting the hyperinflation Venezuela has been experiencing for years.
BCV reported that CPI increased 2,665% in 2020).
Their data also show that people in LATAM use cryptocurrency more, as a store of
value when the domestic currency was losing value to inflation. Correlations
between USD value of P2P crypto transaction volume and currency devaluation in
some LATAM nations such as Argentina, Uruguay, Colombia and Chile are significant.
Correlations Between P2P Transaction Volume (Bitcoin) and LATAM FX per USD
(Jul-2019 to Jun-2020)
Source: Chainalysis, Localbitcoins, paxful via CoinDance
Professional Traders Dominate Crypto Activities Globally. Around 90% of all

transaction transferred by East Asia, North America and Northern & Western Europe
in most months (over Jul-2019 to Jun-2020) were attributed to professional—sized
transfers (above $10k USD-equivalent of cryptocurrencies).
Professional share of Cryptocurrency volume transferred Retail share of Cryptocurrency volume transferred by
by Region (Jul 2019 to Jun 2020) Region (Jul 2019 to Jun 2020)
Source: Chainalysis
Remittances the Main Driver of Retail Demand in ASEAN. In terms of retail

activity (considerably smaller relatively to professional), Central and Southern Asia
and Oceania (CSAO) region as a whole has the 3rd highest share, after Africa and
Latin America regions. Some of these activities in the CSAO region is likely due to
overseas remittances. This is also in line with the Global Consumer Survey
March 19, 2021 13

ASEAN X Macro
conducted by Statista1, which shows crypto adoption is gathering momentum in

Southeast Asia, with 21% of Vietnamese and 20% of Filipinos saying they used digital
assets in 2020 and that remittances make up much of Vietnamese and Filipinos’
demand for crypto.
Bitcoin Demand is Broad Based. Chainalysis data revealed that “whale wallets”
bought 731,000 Bitcoins from exchanges in the last week of Dec-2020, this
represents a third of all Bitcoins bought on exchanges during that period. The
buying interest is also not just confined to “whale” players but small/medium
players. Trend basically suggests that interest in Bitcoin is broad-based and is a
positive signal for long-term adoption.
Growing Demand from Big Players “Whale Wallets” and … Smaller Players As Well
Number of Addresses Holding at

Least $100 worth of Bitcoin
Source: Chainalysis, Coin Metrics
Bitcoin Increasingly Used as a Store of Value. The holding period for Bitcoin has
experienced a significant increase, with the % of Bitcoin held for at least a year
rising to all-time highs, underscoring the point that Bitcoin may no longer be
perceived as a short-term speculation vehicle but rather a potential shift in
perception and use as a portfolio diversification tool, a store of value or even a
macro hedge. Bitcoin velocity is also near its lowest levels since 2011. Falling
velocity is consistent with the notion that Bitcoin is increasingly being used as a
store of value, rather than a medium of exchange.
% Bitcoin Supply Held Over Time Bitcoin Velocity Near Lows
Source: Coin Metrics
1
How Common is Crypto?, Statista Global Consumer Survey, Feb 2021
March 19, 2021 14
ASEAN X Macro
2020 Widely Recognized as the Year Bitcoin Goes Institutional. There are a
handful of anecdotal examples of institutional interests in cryptocurrencies picking
up pace. In Aug-2020, Fidelity launched its inaugural bitcoin-only fund while
MicroStrategy announced adding Bitcoin to Treasury (subsequently reported that it
has purchased more than $1bn worth of Bitcoin). In Nov-2020, PayPal announced
that its users in US can buy, sell and hold 4 cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin,
Ethereum, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash. In Dec-2020, MassMutual invested US$100mio
in Bitcoin. In Jan-2021, BlackRock added cash-settled Bitcoin futures as an eligible
investment to 2 funds – BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities and BlackRock
Global Allocation Fund Inc. while Tesla revealed it bought US$1.5bn worth of
Bitcoin. Most recently, Morgan Stanley becomes the first big US bank to offer its
wealthier clients access to 3 Bitcoin funds.
Other ways to gauge institutional activity is via Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust2 (BGTC) –
the only publicly traded exchange-traded fund investing in Bitcoin and “Whale
Wallets” (defined as wallets holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins).
For Grayscale, its crypto assets under management (AUM) rose from $2bn in early-
2020 to $20.2bn in end-2020 and has now exceeded $30bn as of Jan-2021,
representing 1,500% increase. Grayscale highlighted that the growth was due to
institutional investors, particularly the hedge funds. It also noted that inflows into
BGTC have continued to rise as a % of mined Bitcoin to nearly 200% in 4Q-2020 – a
case of demand outstripping supply.
Grayscale AUM – a Proxy of Institutional Flow Inflows into BGTC Outstripped Mined Bitcoins
Source: Grayscale, Coin Metrics
Uncorrelated Returns the Main Appeal to Institutional Players. We looked at a

few surveys here to understand Institutional investors’ behaviors and attitudes
towards cryptocurrencies. In the next section, we attempt to see if some of
these perceptions of Bitcoin price properties hold true over time, utilizing
Bitcoin’s evolving correlations with other asset classes including typical FX.
A more recent study conducted by Bitwise Asset Management (a leading provider

of index and beta crypto funds based in San Francisco) in Dec-2020 revealed that
54% of advisors (respondents) selected “low or uncorrelated returns” as a key
motivation for including crypto in portfolios while “high potential returns” and
“inflation hedging” saw an uptick of interests from advisors.
2
Grayscale investments is the world’s largest digital currency asset manager and sponsor of
GBTC, solely and passively invested in Bitcoin, enabling investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin
in the form of a security while avoiding the challenges of buying, storing and safekeeping
Bitcoin directly. It is also the first digital currency investment vehicle to attain the status of
an SEC reporting company. Further details can be found here: Form 10 of US SEC.
March 19, 2021 15
ASEAN X Macro
What Is Attractive About Adding Crypto Exposure to Client Portfolio
2021 2020
Survey Survey
Low of Uncorrelated Returns with Other Asset Classes 54% 54%
High Potential Returns 38% 30%
Something New to Offer Clients 28% 23%
Clients Are Asking for it 27% 26%
Inflation Hedging 25% 9%
Others 7% 9%
Source: Bitwise/ETF Trends 2021 Benchmark Survey of Financial Advisor Attitudes Toward
Cryptoassets, Jan 2021
An earlier survey (published in Jun-2020) conducted by Fidelity Digital Assets in

collaboration with Greenwich Associates across 800 US and European institutional
investors and ultra-high net worth individuals) also revealed similar findings with
Bitwise/ETF Trends survey. Most (36%) institutional investors (respondents) chose
“uncorrelated to other assets” as the main appeal of digital assets, followed by
innovative technology play (34%) and high potential upside (33%).
Fidelity noted that the survey concluded before pandemic which led to broad de-
risking in Mar-2020 and that drove the flight from relatively more liquid assets to
cash causing correlation of all assets to go to one. Digital assets were also sold off
alongside traditional assets, seemingly damaging one of the most frequently cited
value propositions – lack of correlation. But Fidelity noted that digital assets like
Bitcoin have starting to move independently after the period of elevated
correlation.
Appeal of Digital Assets
Source: The Institutional Investors Digital Asset Survey, 2020 Review Fidelity Digital Assets,
Maybank FX Research & Strategy
March 19, 2021 16

ASEAN X Macro
Characterizing Bitcoin Price Dynamics

Frequent observers of Bitcoin and other crypto assets may find prices being prone
to periods of wild swings induced by positive or negative crypto-specific news.
Supply and Demand Drivers
Examples of positive demand drivers could include news of greater mainstream

adoption, instances of public support by influential individuals, more benign
regulatory developments, or progress in hitting project-specific milestones.
Examples of negative demand drivers may include greater regulatory scrutiny or in

some cases, outright imposition of penalties with regards to crypto-related
activities. For instance, after a weekend rally that took it past US$61,000, bitcoin
declined by more than 10% on 15-16 Mar, with markets focusing on renewed threats
from the Indian government in banning cryptocurrencies. Authorities are
reportedly preparing a bill that would criminalize possession, issuance, mining,
trading and transferring of crypto-assets. If the bill is passed, it would be among
the strictest restrictions of its form globally.
Concerns over scams or fraud over parts of the cryptocurrency ecosystem may also
induce periods of risk aversion in crypto asset markets. A Jun 2018 tweet from
South Korean crypto exchange Coinrail confirming that a hack had caused a loss of
30% of the tokens traded on the platform led to a 10% tumble in Bitcoin price. More
recently, a 6% sell-off in Bitcoin on 21 Dec 2020 was linked to a hack in a popular
hardware wallet for crypto users, Ledger.
Meanwhile, supply-side drivers are a tad fuzzier for Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
Bitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies have finite supply by design. There will
only be 21 million Bitcoin in existence, with around 18.7 million having been
“mined” and currently in circulation. In this case, supply side expectations for
individual currencies are usually stable, except perhaps in the case of “halving”
(or equivalent) events. “Halving” refers to the process whereby the block reward
for mining new bitcoin is halved when miners verify transactions, meaning that the
pace of increase in “new” Bitcoin supply is halved as well. Bitcoin halving occurs
approximately every four years. Despite this being a well-known piece of
information, Bitcoin price has shown some tendency to rise in the lead-up to and
after halving events (July 2016, May 2020).
Another supply-side consideration could be the increasing supply of crypto assets

as a whole, with new projects being created frequently. On this, we note that the
crypto space tends to be “top-heavy” in nature, with Bitcoin accounting for around
60% of overall crypto asset market capitalization, and the top 10 cryptocurrencies
accounting for around 85%. This implies that cryptocurrencies with poorly-designed
supply dynamics (i.e., supply increases too quickly), poor project fundamentals,
weak followings, usually see negligible relative value. Supply dynamics for the
“core” part of the crypto market which sees the greatest interest is likely to
be largely stable over time and price swings are more likely to come from
demand side triggers.
But aside from the above-mentioned price triggers, Bitcoin is also increasingly
thought to exhibit linkages to the broader macro and financial landscape. For
instance, it has been touted to have many “roles”, including but not limited to:
(i) a speculative risk-on asset,
(ii) a haven asset,
(iii) an inflation hedge,
(iv) a replacement for the dollar and other fiat currencies.

(v) portfolio diversifier.
March 19, 2021 17

ASEAN X Macro
In truth, there is probably no one “correct” answer. In this section, we attempt to

shed some light on Bitcoin’s fluid nature by:
(i) tracing the evolution of the different phases in Bitcoin price and
trading volumes over the years,
(ii) using rolling correlations to identify Bitcoin’s relationships with

different conventional financial asset prices.
Bitcoin’s Wild Ride Over the Years
2,500.0 Abundance of 60,000

liquidity, increasing
institutional &
mainstream interest 50,000
2,000.0
40,000
Leveraged
1,500.0 Trading
Introduced
30,000
1,000.0 First Retail

Break-Out, 20,000
Unsustainable
ICO Hype
500.0
Crypto Winter 10,000
Early Crypto
Enthusiasts
- -
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Oct-19
Oct-20
Monthly Trading Volume (US$Bn, LHS) Bitcoin Price (US$, RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, Maybank FX Research & Strategy
Prior to 2017, Bitcoin price was largely hovering below US$1,000. Over this period,
trading activity was likely dominated by early crypto enthusiasts, but even then,
there were tentative signs of increasing interest in Bitcoin as an asset, with
monthly trading volumes quadrupling from just below US$1bn in late 2014 to
US$3.6bn by Dec 2016.
The first break-out in retail interest in Bitcoin occurred in late 2017, buoyed in
part by a proliferation of Initial Coin Offerings (ICO) promising incentive stakes
in emerging crypto/blockchain projects in various forms. Retail investors piled
into cryptocurrency assets mainly on hype and momentum, but the fierce rally
in Dec 2017 to Jan 2018 proved unsustainable.
Over the course of 2018, many projects in the cryptocurrency space failed due
to fraud, technological constraints, or lack of mainstream functional interest.
There was also a cloud of uncertainty regarding increasing regulatory scrutiny on
cryptocurrency-related activities. Trading volumes pulled back and Bitcoin
prices were largely on the decline in 2018, with some online commentators
calling this period the Crypto Winter.
While Bitcoin prices continued to swing in familiar trading ranges in 2019, the
main game-changer was the large increase in trading volumes over this period.
Monthly trading volumes almost quadrupled from US$169bn in Dec 2018 to
US$634bn in Dec 2019. This occurred on the back of the introduction of margin
trading in Bitcoin products by multiple large crypto exchanges, which likely
attracted large retail investors and nascent institutional investor interest. Global
interest in Facebook’s Libra project also brought renewed attention to the
cryptocurrency space in the same year.
March 19, 2021 18

ASEAN X Macro
Aside from a liquidity crunch-linked pullback in Mar at the onset of Covid-19,

2020 has proven to be a spectacular year for Bitcoin. Accommodative monetary
and fiscal policy resulted in an abundance of liquidity which could have spilled
over to the cryptocurrency space. Dedicated crypto funds such as Grayscale
Bitcoin Trust saw robust inflows, and declarations of investment intent or positions
by influential individuals such as Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller, or
by publicly listed companies such as Tesla or MicroStrategy (prominent business
analytics platform) added evidence of increasing interest among high net worth
individuals, businesses and institutions.
As a result, both Bitcoin prices and trading volumes reached new record highs
in early 2021.
Bitcoin’s Evolving Price Properties
We utilize 52-week rolling correlations of returns in Bitcoin and other assets to

better understand the nature of Bitcoin over different periods.
(i) Risk-on Asset Behaviour Emerged During Post-Covid; Not a Haven
52-Week Rolling Correlation Between Bitcoin & MSCI World % Returns
0.6 Bitcoin Tanked Alongside 15.0

Equities in Mar 2020
0.4 10.0
0.2 5.0
0 0.0
-0.2 -5.0
-0.4 -10.0
-0.6 -15.0
MSCI World % Gains (RHS) MSCI World % Losses (RHS) MSCI World, Bitcoin Correl (LHS)
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank FX Research & Strategy Estimates
Co-movements in Bitcoin and equities (proxied by MSCI World Equity Index) were
largely modest in extent prior to 2020 (i.e., yellow line not significantly different
from 0). Moves in equities and bitcoin over this period were likely driven by
different factors.
This changed with the onset of Covid. As central banks and fiscal authorities moved
to calm markets, an abundance of liquidity arising from global monetary and fiscal
stimulus, and sustained risk-on sentiments anchored on the global post-Covid
recovery narrative led both stocks and bitcoin to rise alongside. In other words,
returns in equities and Bitcoin became directionally aligned over this period.
We postulate that Bitcoin and equity price moves may remain positively correlated
in the near-term, but as the extent of global monetary and fiscal stimulus
gradually tapers going forward, the magnitude of the positive correlation might
ease. When their correlation declines, Bitcoin may be better suited to perform
the function of a portfolio diversification asset.
Also, despite frequent claims that Bitcoin has the characteristics of a haven
asset, this is likely not the case. In Mar 2020, fears of lockdowns and a stand-still
in economic activity led to a liquidity crunch and aggressive sell-offs in Bitcoin
March 19, 2021 19

ASEAN X Macro
occurred alongside broader equity declines (red bars). This twin sell-off also
occurred in Q4 2018 as well. Given that Bitcoin is not able to compensate for equity
losses (i.e., requires negative correlation between Bitcoin and equities) in asset
portfolios, Bitcoin’s safe haven characteristics appears lacking at the moment.
(ii) Insufficient Evidence of Broad Inflation Hedging Properties
52-Week Rolling Correlation Between Bitcoin Returns & UST10Y Yield Changes
0.5 Bitcoin rose 0.4

alongside emerging
0.4 0.3
inflation concerns.
0.3 But one-off?
0.2
0.2
0.1 0.1
0 0.0
-0.1 -0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4 -0.3
-0.5 -0.4
UST10Y Yield %-pt Gains (RHS) UST10Y Yield %-pt Losses (RHS)
US10Y Yield Change, Bitcoin Correl (LHS)
Concerns over longer-term inflationary pressures can be proxied by increases in

the UST 10Y yield. If Bitcoin has inflation hedging characteristics, it should exhibit
a positive correlation with UST yields, especially in periods when UST yields are
increasing, i.e., yellow line should be in positive territory when we see more green
bars. But there is a lack of evidence from the chart above to show that this
holds historically.
A quick caveat. We note that the latest episode of yield spikes in Feb-Mar 2021
(rising inflation concerns) was indeed accompanied by rising bitcoin prices. In this
instance, we postulate that a common trigger contributed to both moves. More
specifically, the massive US$1.9trn stimulus package in the US could have led to
expectations for expansion in consumption demand, government borrowings,
demand-pull price pressures, while also providing incremental retail funds (fiscal
handouts) for potential injection into Bitcoin markets.
To some extent, this demonstrates that Bitcoin may potentially be able to hedge
against sporadic bouts of inflationary expectations induced by episodes of large
fiscal handouts. But aside from the extraordinary circumstances during Covid-19
pandemic, such instances may be much rarer going forward.
We draw a parallel to gold here. Studies have shown that the relationship between
gold and conventional, lukewarm inflation trends to be quite weak. Rather, gold
performs better as a hedge against large inflation shocks, such as the spikes in
price pressures caused by surging oil prices in the late 1970s and early 1980s. The
same may be true for Bitcoin due to arguments of its scarcity (finite supply of
21mn, circulating supply of 18.7mn), but this remains to be seen.
March 19, 2021 20

ASEAN X Macro
Regression of Log(Bitcoin) Against Inflation
Betas US Inflation SG Inflation MY Inflation ID Inflation TH Inflation PH Inflation
Bitcoin -0.8 -0.8 -0.2 -0.7 -0.3 0.0

Note: US inflation refers to US PCE Core, while ASEAN inflation refers to monthly headline
CPI inflation.
For what it’s worth, we also do a quick quantitative check by regressing log(Bitcoin)
against inflation readings in US and the ASEAN countries, with results shown in the
table above. The estimated betas can be interpreted as % price moves in Bitcoin
per %-point increase in inflation. We used monthly data from Jan 2017 to Feb 2021,
as price moves prior to 2017 (when price was <US$1k) were likely induced primarily
by developments in the crypto space.
Notably, estimated betas range from negligible to modestly negative, whereas

positive betas (asset price rises when inflation rises) would be required to
demonstrate inflation hedging properties. The results here are also likely skewed
due to Bitcoin’s short history. From 2017 till now, Bitcoin prices were on a rapid
ascend whereas inflationary pressures in US and ASEAN were muted or largely
softened.
Descriptive Statistics of Returns (Jan 2017 to Feb 2021)

US 10Y
Bitcoin Gold Treasury Note
Mean of Mthly Return (%) 11.59 0.80 0.15
Std Deviation of Mthly Returns (%) 27.83 3.57 1.2

Lastly, we note that volatility in Bitcoin price moves is many-fold that of gold or
US bonds. The perception of Bitcoin’s value changes rapidly due to its complex set
of price drivers (discussed in earlier section), and Bitcoin may just be too new an
asset class to have a stable set of price properties.
In short, Bitcoin has negligible inflation hedging properties, except possibly in

instances of large inflation shocks or when inflation concerns are induced by
large fiscal handouts, but Bitcoin’s short history means that it has yet to prove
itself in these aspects.
March 19, 2021 21

ASEAN X Macro
(iii) Emerging Negative Correlation with USD, Positive Correl. with ASEAN FX
52-Week Rolling Correlation Between Bitcoin Returns & USD (DXY) % Changes
0.6 5.0
4.0
0.4
3.0
2.0
0.2
1.0
0 0.0
-1.0
-0.2
-2.0
-3.0
-0.4
-4.0
-0.6 -5.0
DXY % Gains (RHS) DXY % Losses (RHS) USD(DXY), Bitcoin Correl (LHS)
52-Week Rolling Correlation Between Bitcoin Returns & ASEAN FX % Changes

0.6 4.0
3.0
0.4
2.0
0.2
1.0
0 0.0
-1.0
-0.2
-2.0
-0.4
-3.0
-0.6 -4.0
ASEAN FX % Gains (RHS) ASEAN FX % Losses (RHS) ASEAN FX, Bitcoin Correl (LHS)
Note: ASEAN FX refers to average of changes in SGD, MYR, THB, IDR, PHP (USD-crosses).
Bitcoin’s negative correlation with USD started emerging in 2019, and rose in
magnitude in 2020.
While some crypto enthusiasts have touted Bitcoin as a potential competitor to

the dollar, this is unlikely to be the true cause behind this negative co-
movement. According to the latest (2019) BIS Triennial Survey of Turnover in OTC
FX markets, trading in FX reached US$6.6trn per day in Apr 2019, with the USD
being on one side of 88% of all trades. On the other hand, daily bitcoin trading
volumes pale in comparison, averaging US$50-60bn daily in the first half of Mar
2021.
Rather, one possible reason could be that with Bitcoin prices commonly
denominated in USD, periods of decline in the dollar (vs. other FX) leads Bitcoin
to look cheaper in local currency terms for global investors, and this might
encourage incremental bitcoin demand at the margin, supporting prices. To some
extent, this is corroborated by rising positive correlation between Bitcoin returns
March 19, 2021 22

ASEAN X Macro
and ASEAN FX over the past one-and-a-half years. This effect may be more
pronounced when trading volumes are larger. We note that as identified earlier,
2019 was the year when Bitcoin trading volumes spiked due to the introduction of
leveraged trading in Bitcoin products as well as potential nascent institutional
interest.
Of course, a softer USD, rising ASEAN FX environment post Mar-2020 is usually

also synonymous with a positive global growth recovery outlook, so a rising
Bitcoin over this period could be pricing in procyclical elements in market
sentiments as well.
Going forward, if Bitcoin trading volumes continue to be on the uptrend, its

negative correlation with the dollar could become more entrenched over time.
Conclusion
While the 2017 run-up in crypto was largely driven by private traders – crypto
enthusiasts, speculators, the 2020-21 run-up is mainly driven by institutional
traders – funds, asset management companies, financial institutions. The
cryptocurrency market today can be described as more mature than 2017 – wider
variety of derivatives and futures as well as Bitcoin-funds.
Regulators have also taken interest with a burst of exploratory research and trials
by global central banks on wholesale and retail CBDCs. If we can compare the
adoption of cryptocurrency to the adoption of internet, Bitcoin has approximately
the same number of users as the internet in 1997. According to International Data
Corporation (IDC), 70mio people were connected to the internet by 1995 (1.7% of
world’s population) but this grew to 5.8% of world population in 2000. Internet
World Stats show that the number of users on the internet ballooned to 4.8bn by
the end of 2020, representing 62% of world’s population. Bitcoin’s mass adoption
is growing at a fast rate when compared to the internet and is projected that
Bitcoin may have around 1bn users within the next 4 years.
While Bitcoin looks likely to stay around for a while, it should be noted that its
nature is dynamically evolving over time (see table of findings), and participants
in the cryptocurrency markets should keep in mind the age-old adage that change
is the only constant.
Popular Attributes Interim Findings
Speculative Risk-on Asset? Yes, near-term. Bitcoin and equity price moves may remain positively correlated
in the near-term, but this relationship likely arose as a result of the recent flush
in global liquidity, and may ease as global monetary and fiscal stimulus gradually
tapers going forward.
Safe Haven Asset? No. Bitcoin tends to see sell-offs when risk aversion spikes in broad market
sentiments.
Inflation Hedge? Likely ineffective hedge against conventional, lukewarm inflation. Due to
scarcity, hedging effects may be more significant in instances of large inflation
shocks or when inflation concerns are induced by large fiscal handouts, but
Bitcoin’s short history means that it has yet to prove itself in these aspects.
Dollar/Fiat Replacement? No, but investors should note Bitcoin’s emerging negative correlation with
dollar, and concomitant positive correlation with other FX (e.g., ASEAN
currencies), when including Bitcoin in asset portfolios with significant currency
exposures.
Portfolio Diversifier? To some extent, given that price swings are still tied to developments in the
crypto space (regulation, tech, public adoption). Could be more effective as a
diversifier when positive correlation with equities fade going forward.
Source: Maybank FX Research & Strategy
March 19, 2021 23

ASEAN X Macro
Glossary – Some Key Terms Used in Report

Term Brief Definition
CBDC – Central Bank Digital Currency A digital form of money issued by the monetary authority of
the country that is part of its fiat currency.
DLT – Digital Ledger Technology A digital system that enables simultaneous records of
transactions of assets across a network in multiple places by
multiple participants.
DvP – Delivery Vs. Payment A settlement process to ensure payment is made before or at
the same time as the delivery of the securities.
LSM - Liquidity Savings Mechanisms An arrangement of payments that features netting and
offsetting of transactions to typically reduce the overall
liquidity requirement.
RTGS- Real Time Gross Settlement An instantaneous fund transfer system.
March 19, 2021 24

ASEAN X Macro
Appendix: Summary Tables

Table 1: Indonesia - Key Macroeconomic Indicators
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E
Real GDP (%) 5.1 5.2 5.0 (2.1) 5.3 5.0
Private Consumption (%) 4.9 5.1 5.0 (2.6) 4.9 4.7
Government Consumption (%) 2.1 4.8 3.3 1.9 5.3 1.8
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (%) 6.2 6.7 4.5 (4.9) 4.8 5.2
Exports of Goods & Services (%) 8.9 6.5 (0.9) (7.7) 6.6 4.0
Imports of Goods & Services (%) 8.1 12.1 (7.4) (14.7) 5.5 7.9
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) (1.6) (2.9) (2.7) (1.1) (2.0) (2.6)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) (2.5) (1.8) (2.2) (6.1) (5.5) (3.5)
Inflation Rate (%, period average) 3.8 3.2 3.0 2.0 2.4 3.0
Unemployment Rate (%, period average) 5.4 5.2 5.1 6.0 5.7 5.5
Exchange Rate (per USD, end-period) 13,548 14,390 13,866 14,050 13,500 13,200
10-Year Government Bond Yield (%, end-period) 6.29 7.98 7.04 5.86 6.50 6.75
Benchmark Interest Rate (% p.a., end-period) 4.25 6.00 5.00 3.75 3.50 3.50
Note: 2020 values for current account balance & unemployment rate are estimates.
Table 2: Malaysia - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E
Real GDP (%) 5.7 4.8 4.3 (5.6) 5.1 5.0
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (%) 6.1 1.4 (2.1) (14.5) 8.5 7.4
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 3.0 2.3 3.4 4.4 3.5 3.3
Inflation Rate (%, average) 3.8 1.0 0.7 (1.2) 2.6 1.8
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.4 3.3 3.3 4.5 4.5 4.0
Exchange Rate (per USD, end-period) 4.06 4.14 4.09 4.02 3.90 3.86
Note: 2020 values for fiscal balance & unemployment rate are estimates.
Table 3: Philippines - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E
Real GDP (%) 6.7 6.2 6.0 (9.5) 6.3 6.2
Exports of Goods & Services (%) 19.5 11.5 2.4 (16.7) 7.9 6.4
Imports of Goods & Services (%) 18.1 16.0 1.8 (21.9) 16.8 7.9
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) (0.7) (2.6) (0.9) 3.4 1.0 0.0
Inflation Rate (%, period average) 2.9 5.2 2.5 2.6 4.0 2.0
Unemployment Rate (%, period average) 5.7 5.3 5.1 10.4 7.5 6.5
Note: 2020 values for current account balance & fiscal balance are estimates.
March 19, 2021 25

ASEAN X Macro
Table 4: Singapore - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E
Real GDP (%) 4.5 3.5 1.3 (5.4) 4.5 3.0
Government Consumption (%) 3.1 3.2 3.4 12.6 (3.2) 3.3
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (%) 5.4 (4.3) 1.2 (13.7) 5.5 4.5
Exports of Goods & Services (%) 7.1 7.7 0.1 (4.3) 4.7 4.5
Imports of Goods & Services (%) 7.8 7.5 0.2 (7.1) 4.9 5.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2.3 0.7 0.2 (13.9) (2.2) 0.5
Inflation Rate (%) 0.6 0.4 0.6 (0.2) 0.8 1.0
3M SIBOR (% p.a., end-period) 1.50 1.89 1.77 0.41 0.40 0.40
Table 5: Thailand - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E
Real GDP (%) 4.2 4.2 2.3 (6.1) 3.5 4.5
Inflation Rate (%) 0.7 1.1 0.7 (0.8) 1.2 0.8
Note: 2020 values for current account balance, fiscal balance & unemployment rate are estimates.
Table 6: Vietnam - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
Real GDP (%) 6.8 7.1 7.0 2.9 6.8 6.7
Private Consumption (%) 7.3 7.3 7.4 0.6 7.0 7.1
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (%) 10.2 8.7 8.3 4.1 8.5 9.0
Exports of Goods & Services (%) 16.7 14.3 6.7 3.0 11.0 12.0
Imports of Goods & Services (%) 17.5 12.8 8.3 2.6 10.9 12.3
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) (0.7) 2.4 4.8 4.2 3.2 3.6
Inflation Rate (%) 3.5 3.5 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.3
Note: 2020 values for real GDP growth, private & government consumption, GFCF, inflation rate, exchange rate, 10Y government bond yield & benchmark interest rate
are actual.
March 19, 2021 26

ASEAN X Macro
Table 7: Cambodia - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
Real GDP (%) 7.0 7.5 7.1 (1.0) 5.9 6.2
Exports of Goods & Services (in USD terms, %) 5.3 5.3 7.8 (6.5) 9.0 9.7
Imports of Goods & Services (in USD terms, %) 4.1 4.1 6.0 (6.7) 8.2 8.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) (0.8) 0.7 2.3 (3.3) (1.5) (1.1)
Inflation Rate (%) 2.9 2.5 1.9 2.8 3.2 3.4
*Benchmark Interest Rate (% p.a., end-period) 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.50 2.50 2.75
* Refers to one-year interest rate applied under Liquidity-Providing Collateralized Operation (LPCO) mechanism.
Note: 2020 values for exchange rate and policy rate are actual.
Table 8: Myanmar - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

FY16/17 FY17/18 FY18/19 FY19/20E FY20/21E FY21/22E
Real GDP (%) 5.9 6.8 6.8 1.0 3.0 4.0
*Consumption (%) 2.2 4.3 1.5 4.5 4.0 4.2
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (%) 1.2 6.6 2.6 (1.0) (2.5) (1.0)
Exports of Goods & Services (in USD terms, %) (0.4) 19.0 11.3 (6.6) 8.5 9.5
Imports of Goods & Services (in USD terms, %) (11.4) 9.4 (7.7) 2.0 5.0 5.0
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) (4.3) (5.5) 0.4 (2.5) (3.5) (3.5)
Inflation Rate (%) 6.8 4.0 8.6 5.7 5.0 6.0
^Benchmark Interest Rate (% p.a., end-period) 10.00 10.00 10.00 7.00 6.00 6.00
Note: Underlying months that constitute a fiscal year were changed in 2018. Fiscal year is from April 1 to March 31, up to FY 2017/18. From FY 2018/19 onwards, the
fiscal year is from October 1 to September 30. FY19/20 values for inflation rate, exchange rate & benchmark interest rate are actual.
* Myanmar does not provide breakdown of private & government consumption.
^ Refers to Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) Central Bank Rate
Table 9: Laos - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
Real GDP (%) 6.9 6.3 5.5 1.0 6.0 6.0
*Agriculture (%) 2.9 1.3 1.2 2.3 1.9 1.9
*Industry (%) 11.6 7.8 5.6 2.3 6.5 7.3
*Services (%) 4.5 6.8 6.9 (0.2) 7.2 6.3
Inflation Rate (%) 0.8 2.0 3.3 5.1 4.8 5.0
^Benchmark Interest Rate (% p.a., end-period) 4.00 4.00 4.00 3.00 3.00 3.50
* Laos’ real GDP data is provided with breakdown by industry. Data series on breakdown of real GDP by expenditure components was discontinued since 2017.
^ Refers to Bank of Lao PDR (BOL) Short-Term Lending Rate for < 1 Week
Note: 2020 values for inflation rate, exchange rate and policy rate are actual.
March 19, 2021 27

ASEAN X Macro
Performance and Valuation Summary
Equity performance by Country (in local currency terms)

--- Absolute performance (local currency) ---
Name Index level FX rate -1w -1m -3m -6m -1y MTD QTD YTD
MSCI All Country World 673 1 (1) 5 18 59 2 4 4
MSCI Emerging Market 1,347 2 (7) 6 22 63 1 4 4
MSCI Asia Pac (inc JP) 210 2 (5) 6 21 61 2 5 5
MSCI Asia Pac x JP 695 2 (7) 7 22 63 0 5 5
MSCI Asia x JP 888 2 (7) 7 23 63 0 5 5
MSCI Far East x JP 843 2 (8) 8 22 63 (0) 5 5
MSCI ASEAN 734 0 1 (1) 18 37 2 1 1
MSCI Emerging Asia 748 2 (8) 7 23 67 (0) 5 5
MSCI EM Latin America 2,323 4 (4) (7) 16 41 5 (5) (5)
MSCI EMMEA 258 (0) 1 6 19 51 4 7 7
MSCI Frontie 579 2 (2) 3 12 37 1 1 1
MSCI Asia x JP Small Cap 1,349 3 (1) 11 27 85 1 10 10
China - Shanghai Composite 3,463 6.5 3 (5) 2 6 25 (1) (0) (0)

China - H-shares 11,470 7.8 4 (6) 9 18 24 2 7 7
Hong Kong - HSI 29,406 7.8 2 (5) 10 21 26 1 8 8
Taiwan - TAIEX 16,288 28.3 2 (0) 14 27 73 2 11 11
Korea - KOSPI 3,066 1,124 4 (2) 11 27 83 2 7 7
Singapore - STI 3,138 1.3 2 7 10 25 28 6 10 10
Malaysia - KLCI 1,628 4.1 (1) 2 (3) 8 30 3 0 0
Thailand - SET 1,569 30.8 (0) 4 6 22 52 5 8 8
Indonesia - JCI 6,348 14,410 1 6 4 26 42 2 6 6
Philippines - PSEi 6,631 48.7 (3) (5) (9) 12 24 (2) (7) (7)
India - Sensex 49,217 72.5 (4) (5) 5 26 61 0 3 3
Vietnam - Ho Chi Minh 1,201 23,067 3 4 14 34 61 3 9 9
Australia ASX 200 6,746 1.3 0 (2) (0) 15 27 1 2 2
New Zealand - NZX50 12,496 1.4 2 (1) (3) 6 32 2 (5) (5)
Japan - Nikkei 225 30,217 109.0 4 (0) 13 30 78 4 10 10

Japan - TOPIX 2,009 109.0 5 2 12 23 58 8 11 11
S&P 500 3,915 1.0 0 (0) 5 17 55 3 4 4

Russell 2000 2,268 1.0 (1) 1 15 47 105 3 15 15
FTSE 100 6,780 1.4 1 1 3 12 28 5 5 5
Euro Stoxx 3,868 1.2 1 5 9 17 53 6 9 9

Source: Maybank Kim Eng, Factset, MSCI, data as of 18 Mar 2021
March 19, 2021 28

ASEAN X Macro
Equity performance by Country (in USD terms)

--- Absolute performance (USD) ---
MSCI All Country World 673 1 (1) 5 18 59 2 4 4
MSCI Emerging Market 1,347 2 (7) 6 22 63 1 4 4
MSCI Asia Pac (inc JP) 210 2 (5) 6 21 61 2 5 5
MSCI Asia Pac x JP 695 2 (7) 7 22 63 0 5 5
MSCI Asia x JP 888 2 (7) 7 23 63 0 5 5
MSCI Far East x JP 843 2 (8) 8 22 63 (0) 5 5
MSCI ASEAN 734 0 1 (1) 18 37 2 1 1
MSCI Emerging Asia 748 2 (8) 7 23 67 (0) 5 5
MSCI EM Latin America 2,323 4 (4) (7) 16 41 5 (5) (5)
MSCI EMMEA 258 (0) 1 6 19 51 4 7 7
MSCI Frontie 579 2 (2) 3 12 37 1 1 1
MSCI Asia x JP Small Cap 1,349 3 (1) 11 27 85 1 10 10
China - Shanghai Composite 3,463 6.5 3 (6) 2 10 34 (2) 0 0

China - H-shares 11,470 7.8 4 (6) 9 18 24 2 7 7
Hong Kong - HSI 29,406 7.8 2 (6) 10 21 26 1 8 8
Taiwan - TAIEX 16,288 28.3 2 (2) 14 30 84 0 10 10
Korea - KOSPI 3,066 1,124 5 (4) 8 33 103 2 3 3
Singapore - STI 3,138 1.3 2 6 8 27 36 5 9 9
Malaysia - KLCI 1,628 4.1 (1) 0 (5) 8 37 2 (2) (2)
Thailand - SET 1,569 30.8 (1) 1 2 24 59 2 5 5
Indonesia - JCI 6,348 14,410 1 3 2 30 50 0 4 4
Philippines - PSEi 6,631 48.7 (3) (5) (10) 11 31 (3) (8) (8)
India - Sensex 49,217 72.5 (4) (5) 6 28 65 2 4 4
Vietnam - Ho Chi Minh 1,201 23,067 3 4 14 35 62 3 9 9
Australia ASX 200 6,746 1.3 2 (1) 2 23 66 2 3 3
New Zealand - NZX50 12,496 1.4 2 (1) (2) 14 60 1 (5) (5)
Japan - Nikkei 225 30,217 109.0 4 (3) 7 25 75 2 4 4

Japan - TOPIX 2,009 109.0 4 (0) 6 18 56 5 5 5
S&P 500 3,915 1.0 0 (0) 5 17 55 3 4 4

Russell 2000 2,268 1.0 (1) 1 15 47 105 3 15 15
FTSE 100 6,780 1.4 1 2 6 21 49 4 7 7
Euro Stoxx 3,868 1.2 1 4 6 18 66 4 6 6

March 19, 2021 29

ASEAN X Macro
Equity performance by Country – relative performance

--- Relative performance to MSCI Asia x Japan ---
MSCI All Country World 673 (1) 6 (3) (4) (4) 2 (1) (1)
MSCI Emerging Market 1,347 (0) 1 (2) (1) 0 1 (1) (1)
MSCI Asia Pac (inc JP) 210 1 2 (1) (1) (2) 2 (0) (0)
MSCI Asia Pac x JP 695 (0) 1 (1) (0) (0) 0 (0) (0)
MSCI Asia x JP 888
MSCI Far East x JP 843 1 (0) 0 (0) (0) (0) 0 0
MSCI ASEAN 734 (1) 8 (8) (5) (26) 2 (4) (4)
MSCI Emerging Asia 748 0 (1) (0) 0 4 (0) (0) (0)
MSCI EM Latin America 2,323 2 3 (14) (7) (22) 5 (11) (11)
MSCI EMMEA 258 (2) 8 (2) (3) (12) 4 2 2
MSCI Frontie 579 (0) 6 (4) (11) (26) 1 (4) (4)
MSCI Asia x JP Small Cap 1,349 1 6 4 4 22 1 4 4
China - Shanghai Composite 3,463 6.5 2 1 (5) (12) (29) (2) (5) (5)
China - H-shares 11,470 7.8 2 1 1 (5) (38) 2 1 1
Hong Kong - HSI 29,406 7.8 (0) 2 3 (2) (37) 1 3 3
Taiwan - TAIEX 16,288 28.3 1 6 6 8 21 0 4 4
Korea - KOSPI 3,066 1,124 4 4 0 11 40 2 (2) (2)
Singapore - STI 3,138 1.3 0 14 1 4 (27) 5 3 3
Malaysia - KLCI 1,628 4.1 (2) 8 (12) (14) (26) 2 (7) (7)
Thailand - SET 1,569 30.8 (2) 8 (5) 1 (4) 2 (0) (0)
Indonesia - JCI 6,348 14,410 (0) 6 (6) 7 (13) 0 (2) (2)
Philippines - PSEi 6,631 48.7 (5) 2 (18) (11) (31) (3) (14) (14)
India - Sensex 49,217 72.5 (5) 3 (1) 6 2 2 (1) (1)
Vietnam - Ho Chi Minh 1,201 23,067 1 11 7 12 (1) 3 4 4
Australia ASX 200 6,746 1.3 (0) 6 (5) 0 3 2 (2) (2)
New Zealand - NZX50 12,496 1.4 1 6 (10) (9) (2) 1 (10) (10)
Japan - Nikkei 225 30,217 109.0 2 4 (1) 2 12 2 (1) (1)

Japan - TOPIX 2,009 109.0 3 7 (2) (5) (7) 5 0 0
S&P 500 3,915 1.0 (1) 7 (2) (6) (8) 3 (1) (1)
Russell 2000 2,268 1.0 (3) 8 7 24 42 3 10 10
FTSE 100 6,780 1.4 (1) 9 (1) (2) (14) 4 2 2
Euro Stoxx 3,868 1.2 (0) 11 (2) (5) 3 4 1 1

March 19, 2021 30

ASEAN X Macro
Equity performance by MSCI Asia x Japan Sector

--- Absolute performance ---
Name Index -1w -1m -3m -6m -1y MTD QTD YTD
MSCI Asia ex Japan 888 2 (7) 7 23 63 0 5 5
Energy 636 (4) (3) 5 4 55 (2) 5 5
Materials 443 1 (2) 11 36 86 2 8 8
Industrials 159 3 (2) 10 24 47 3 7 7

Capital goods 140 3 (3) 9 25 47 4 6 6
Transportation 216 1 1 10 24 42 1 8 8
Consumer discretionary 741 2 (14) 2 12 76 (1) 3 3

Automobiles & Components 1097 3 (15) 6 48 162 (1) 0 0
Retailing 319 1 (16) (2) 2 63 (2) 3 3
Consumer staples 575 3 (7) 0 10 40 1 (2) (2)

Food/staples retail 148 (1) 2 6 12 19 5 7 7
Food/beverage/tobacco 504 4 (10) 0 11 50 0 (3) (3)
Health care 1166 4 (13) (2) 9 71 (1) (6) (6)
Financials 398 0 (2) 8 27 37 3 6 6

Banks 297 0 0 10 32 33 4 9 9
Diversified financials 718 2 (9) 8 21 59 0 4 4
Insurance 435 (2) (3) 5 19 37 1 3 3
Real estate 215 3 5 7 10 15 1 7 7
Technology 1086 3 (6) 13 40 109 (0) 6 6

Software services 4978 (0) (7) 9 25 102 2 3 3
Tech hardware 414 6 (3) 11 40 91 1 2 2
Semiconductors/equipment 1291 2 (10) 16 43 134 (3) 12 12
Communication Services 190 (0) (12) 12 22 70 (2) 13 13

Telecoms 98 1 (1) (3) (4) 1 (0) (2) (2)
Utilities 212 2 1 6 16 17 2 4 4
March 19, 2021 31

ASEAN X Macro
Equity performance by MSCI Asia x Japan Sector – relative performance

--- Relative performance MSCI Asia x Japan ---
Name Index -1w -1m -3m -6m -1y MTD QTD YTD
MSCI Asia ex Japan 888
Energy 636 (5) 4 (2) (19) (8) (2) (0) (0)
Materials 443 (1) 5 3 14 23 2 2 2
Industrials 159 1 6 2 2 (16) 3 1 1

Capital goods 140 1 5 2 3 (16) 3 0 0
Transportation 216 (1) 8 3 1 (21) 1 3 3
Consumer discretionary 741 1 (7) (5) (10) 13 (1) (2) (2)

Automobiles & Components 1097 1 (8) (1) 25 99 (1) (5) (5)
Retailing 319 (0) (9) (9) (20) 0 (2) (2) (2)
Consumer staples 575 1 0 (7) (12) (23) 1 (7) (7)

Food/staples retail 148 (3) 9 (2) (11) (43) 5 2 2
Food/beverage/tobacco 504 2 (2) (7) (11) (12) 0 (8) (8)
Health care 1166 3 (6) (10) (13) 9 (1) (11) (11)
Financials 398 (2) 5 0 4 (26) 3 1 1

Banks 297 (1) 8 2 10 (30) 4 3 3
Diversified financials 718 1 (2) 0 (2) (4) 0 (2) (2)
Insurance 435 (4) 4 (3) (3) (26) 1 (3) (3)
Real estate 215 1 12 (0) (13) (48) 0 2 2
Technology 1086 2 1 5 17 46 (0) 1 1

Software services 4978 (2) 0 1 2 39 2 (3) (3)
Tech hardware 414 4 4 3 18 28 1 (3) (3)
Semiconductors/equipment 1291 0 (2) 9 21 71 (3) 6 6
Communication Services 190 (2) (5) 5 (0) 7 (3) 7 7

Telecoms 98 (1) 7 (11) (26) (62) (0) (7) (7)
Utilities 212 0 8 (1) (7) (46) 1 (1) (1)

March 19, 2021 32

ASEAN X Macro
MSCI Country valuation

PE (x) EPS growth YoY (%) RoE(%) PB (x) DY (%)
2020F 2021F 2022F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2020F 2021F 2022F
Asia-ex-Japan 22.3 17.5 15.0 3 29 17 9 11 12 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1
China 20.6 17.5 15.0 9 19 17 12 13 13 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.6
Hong Kong 23.9 18.7 16.2 -27 26 15 6 7 8 1.3 1.3 1.3 2.5 2.7 3.0
Taiwan 21.8 18.6 16.9 26 20 10 13 14 15 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.3
Korea 21.8 14.0 11.6 20 58 22 6 9 10 1.4 1.3 1.2 2.3 1.7 1.8
Singapore 23.7 15.5 13.3 -44 55 17 5 8 9 1.2 1.2 1.1 3.3 3.9 4.4
Malaysia 20.9 14.4 14.7 -13 57 -2 8 11 10 1.6 1.6 1.5 3.5 4.0 3.7
Thailand 26.6 20.1 17.3 -40 38 16 7 9 10 1.8 1.8 1.7 2.3 2.5 2.9
Indonesia 22.0 17.0 14.1 -25 29 20 11 13 14 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.7 2.7 3.4
Philippines 26.9 17.9 14.4 -43 47 24 6 9 10 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.9
Vietnam 17.2 15.2 12.4 -0 23 23 14 18 18 2.3 2.4 2.1 1.5 1.3 1.7
India 32.6 24.0 19.7 5 42 22 11 13 15 3.5 3.2 2.9 1.1 1.3 1.5
Japan 22.4 18.5 16.0 -5 25 15 7 8 9 1.5 1.5 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.2
US 30.5 22.7 19.7 -19 40 15 11 33 40 4.1 4.0 3.7 1.6 1.5 1.6
Europe 58.1 18.9 15.9 -65 231 18 3 7 8 1.7 1.7 1.6 2.1 2.7 3.0
Source: Maybank Kim Eng, Factset, MSCI, Bloomberg data as of 18 Mar 2021
March 19, 2021 33

ASEAN X Macro
MSCI Asia-ex-Japan Sector valuation

PE (x) EPS growth YoY (%) RoE(%) PB (x) DY (%)
2020F 2021F 2022F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2020F 2021F 2022F
Asia-ex-Japan 22.3 17.5 15.0 3 29 17 9 11 12 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1
Energy 23.5 14.3 12.3 -36 64 15 5 8 9 1.2 1.2 1.1 2.3 2.8 3.1
Materials 22.0 15.0 13.7 6 49 10 7 10 10 1.6 1.5 1.4 2.1 2.5 2.7
Industrials 21.6 15.1 12.6 -22 50 20 6 8 9 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.9 2.0 2.3
Capital goods 16.9 12.7 11.1 -15 40 14 6 8 9 1.1 1.0 1.0 2.1 2.3 2.5
Transportation 71.9 26.9 18.0 -66 175 50 3 7 9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 2.0
Consumer discretionary 46.2 28.2 21.6 -7 64 31 8 12 14 3.9 3.4 3.0 0.4 0.5 0.6
Automobiles & Components 37.9 19.0 15.6 -9 109 21 5 9 10 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.0 1.2 1.3
Retailing 39.7 30.8 23.6 22 27 31 14 14 16 5.4 4.4 3.8 0.1 0.1 0.1
Consumer staples 27.9 25.0 22.5 13 15 11 14 15 15 3.9 3.6 3.4 1.9 2.0 2.2
Food/staples retail 29.8 28.7 24.2 -6 11 19 9 9 10 2.7 2.7 2.5 1.5 1.6 1.8
Food/beverage/tobacco 25.4 22.8 20.8 18 14 10 15 15 15 3.7 3.4 3.1 2.0 2.1 2.3
Health care 52.0 35.5 34.0 53 47 5 11 15 14 5.9 5.2 4.7 0.7 0.9 0.7
Financials 11.5 10.4 9.4 -4 12 11 10 10 11 1.1 1.1 1.0 3.0 3.3 3.7
Banks 9.8 8.9 8.1 -8 13 11 9 10 10 0.9 0.9 0.8 3.4 3.8 4.2
Diversified financials 18.9 16.1 14.4 23 16 12 12 13 13 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.9
Insurance 13.5 12.4 11.3 -1 8 10 11 11 11 1.5 1.4 1.3 2.5 2.6 2.9
Real estate 10.6 9.2 8.1 -8 16 13 8 8 9 0.8 0.8 0.7 4.2 4.5 4.9
Technology 25.2 19.4 16.0 40 32 21 13 15 16 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.3
Software services 34.7 32.2 27.8 8 21 16 18 19 20 6.2 6.1 5.5 1.4 1.6 1.9
Tech hardware 21.1 15.4 13.0 33 39 19 10 13 14 2.1 2.0 1.8 3.0 2.1 2.3
Semiconductors/equipment 28.9 22.9 18.2 60 25 26 19 21 22 5.5 4.8 4.1 1.6 2.1 2.3
Communication Services 43.3 34.4 27.6 22 53 25 14 15 16 6.0 5.2 4.5 0.7 0.8 0.9
Telecoms 22.7 20.4 16.7 -4 31 22 9 10 12 2.0 2.1 2.0 4.0 3.9 4.1
Utilities 14.0 12.9 11.8 27 10 9 9 9 10 1.2 1.2 1.1 3.9 3.8 4.1
Source: Maybank Kim Eng, Factset, MSCI, Bloomberg data as of 18 Mar 2021
March 19, 2021 34

ASEAN X Macro
Asia USD Credit

Change (bps/%)
Last
1W 1M 3M YTD
UST Yield
UST 3m 0.02 (1) (1) (4) (4)
UST 2y 0.15 1 3 3 3
UST 5y 0.84 4 37 47 48
UST 10y 1.62 6 47 73 71
UST 30y 2.38 8 43 75 73
5y CDS - EM Asia
China 32 (1) 3 3 4
Indonesia 81 2 6 12 13
Korea 22 (1) (1) 0 (0)
Malaysia 43 0 5 4 5
Philippines 42 0 5 6 7
Thailand 41 0 2 3 4
FX - strengthen/(weaken) against USD

CNY 6.508 (0.2%) (1.1%) 0.6% 0.3%
IDR 14385 (0.6%) (2.8%) (2.2%) (2.4%)
KRW 1134 (0.7%) (1.5%) (4.0%) (4.3%)
MYR 4.119 (1.1%) (1.8%) (1.7%) (2.4%)
PHP 48.47 0.2% (0.9%) (0.8%) (0.9%)
SGD 1.345 (0.2%) (1.3%) (0.6%) (1.8%)
THB 30.71 (0.6%) (2.6%) (1.9%) (2.6%)
Source: Maybank Kim Eng, Bloomberg as of 18 Mar 2021
March 19, 2021 35

ASEAN X Macro
Links to past reports

Date Report title Analysts
Economics
12-Jan-21 Malaysia Labour Statistics, Nov 2020: Jobless rate inching up again Suhaimi Ilias
12-Jan-21 Malaysia Distributive Trade Index, Nov 2020: Down on CMCO2.0, downside from MCO2.0 Suhaimi Ilias
15-Jan-21 Philippines OFWR, Nov 2020: Narrowing gains Suhaimi Ilias
15-Jan-21 Indonesia Economics: Exports End 2020 on Strong Note, But Retail Sales Plunge Ju Ye Lee
17-Jan-21 Malaysia Economic Update: “3Ps”-driven outlook panning out Suhaimi Ilias
18-Jan-21 Singapore Economics : Exports End 2020 with a Rebound, Chips Recover Hak Bin Chua
19-Jan-21 Malaysia Economic Update : PERMAI Package Suhaimi Ilias
20-Jan-21 Malaysia BNM Monetary Policy: “Dovish Pause” continues Suhaimi Ilias
21-Jan-21 Indonesia Economics: BI Holds as Pandemic Worsens, Expect Final Rate Cut in Feb Ju Ye Lee
22-Jan-21 Thailand Economics: Positive End to 2020, But Baht Strength Remains a Concern Ju Ye Lee
24-Jan-21 Malaysia CPI, Dec 2020: Deflation rate eased Suhaimi Ilias
24-Jan-21 Malaysia CPI, Dec 2020: Deflation rate eased Suhaimi Ilias
25-Jan-21 Singapore Economics: Steeper Fall in Dec Core Inflation; Expect Prices to Pick Up in 2021 Ju Ye Lee
26-Jan-21 Singapore Auction Preview : 30y SGS: Tactical Buy on Steep Curve Winson Phoon
26-Jan-21 Singapore Economics: Strong Finish to 2020 Manufacturing as Chips Surge Hak Bin Chua
28-Jan-21 Singapore Economics: Budget Preview: Supporting a Smooth Recovery Hak Bin Chua
28-Jan-21 Philippines External Trade, Dec 2020: Mixed ending to 2020 Suhaimi Ilias
28-Jan-21 Philippines 4Q 2020 GDP: Full year 2020 contraction of -9.5% Suhaimi Ilias
28-Jan-21 Philippines External Trade, Dec 2020: Mixed ending to 2020 Suhaimi Ilias
29-Jan-21 Vietnam Economics: Flying Start To 2021, Exports & Manufacturing Humming Linda Liu
01-Feb-21 Malaysia External Trade, Dec 2020: Positive end to 2020 Suhaimi Ilias
01-Feb-21 Malaysia Money Supply, Dec 2020: M3 continued to moderate Suhaimi Ilias
01-Feb-21 Indonesia Economics: Lower Inflation as Food Prices Ease, Expect Rate Cut in Feb Ju Ye Lee
03-Feb-21 Thailand Economics: BoT Stands Pat Amid Uncertain Outlook; Cut 2021 GDP to +3.5% Ju Ye Lee
05-Feb-21 Indonesia Economics: Weak Domestic Demand Weighs on 4Q GDP, See +5.3% Rebound in 2021 Ju Ye Lee
07-Feb-21 Philippines CPI, Jan 2021: Inflation breached 4% YoY Suhaimi Ilias
08-Sep-21 Malaysia Industrial Production, Dec 2020: Rebound Dec but reverse in 4Q Suhaimi Ilias
09-Feb-21 Malaysia Labour Statistics, Dec 2020: Stuck on “U”… Suhaimi Ilias
10-Feb-21 Malaysia External Reserves, end-Jan 2021: USD1b up in 2021’s first month Suhaimi Ilias
10-Feb-21 ASEAN Economics: Myanmar: Déjà Vu – Military Rule & Sanctions Linda Liu
10-Feb-21 Malaysia 4Q 2020 Real GDP Preview: 4Q 2020 GDP estimate: -3.8% YoY Suhaimi Ilias
12-Feb-21 Malaysia 4Q 2020 Real GDP: Speed-bumped by CMCO2.0 Suhaimi Ilias
12-Feb-21 Malaysia Balance of Payments, 4Q 2020: 9-year high current account surplus in 2020 Suhaimi Ilias
12-Feb-21 Philippines BSP Monetary Policy: Policy rate unchanged at 2.00% Suhaimi Ilias
15-Feb-21 Singapore Economics: 4Q20 GDP Upgraded for All Sectors; Expect Targeted Fiscal Support Hak Bin Chua
15-Feb-21 Indonesia Economics: Exports Start the Year Strong, Retail Sales Past Its Trough Ju Ye Lee
16-Feb-21 Philippines OFWR, Dec 2020: Resilient rather than regress Suhaimi Ilias
15-Feb-21 Thailand Economics: Recovery Momentum Weakens in 4Q, Expect 2021 GDP at +3.5% Ju Ye Lee
16-Feb-21 Singapore Economics: Budget 2021: From Relief to Transformation Hak Bin Chua
17-Feb-21 Singapore Economics : Upbeat Start to Exports, NODX Growth to Ease This Year Hak Bin Chua
18-Feb-21 Indonesia Economics: BI Cuts Rate, Eases Lending Rules to Support Recovery Ju Ye Lee
23-Feb-21 Singapore Economics: Inflation Rising on Services Costs, Raise 2021 CPI Forecasts Hak Bin Chua
23-Feb-21 Thailand Economics: Exports Ease Due to Gold Plunge, But Real Sector Improving Ju Ye Lee
24-Feb-21 Philippines CPI, 2021: Global oil prices & domestic inflation Suhaimi Ilias
24-Feb-21 Malaysia CPI, Jan 2021: Dissipating deflation Suhaimi Ilias
26-Feb-21 Thailand Economics: Domestic Demand Slumps in Jan Due to Second Virus Wave Ju Ye Lee
26-Feb-21 Singapore Economics: Healthy Start for Manufacturing, Buoyed by Global Chips Shortage Hak Bin Chua
28-Feb-21 Malaysia External Trade, Jan 2021: Trade data shows “dual-speed economy” Suhaimi Ilias
28-Feb-21 Malaysia Money Supply, Jan 2021: M3 picked up on credit and reserves Suhaimi Ilias
01-Mar-21 Vietnam Economics: IP & Exports Fell Because of Holidays; Recovery Intact Linda Liu
01-Mar-21 Indonesia Economics: Inflation Eases to 4-Month Low on Softer Food Prices Ju Ye Lee
01-Mar-21 Vietnam Economics: IP & Exports Fell Because of Holidays; Recovery Intact Linda Liu
04-Mar-21 Malaysia BNM Monetary Policy: MPC decision strengthens our “no OPR change in 2021” call Suhaimi Ilias
05-Mar-21 ASEAN Economics: Capital Flows & Taper Tantrums Hak Bin Chua
05-Mar-21 Philippines CPI, Feb 2021: Second month above 4% YoY Suhaimi Ilias
09-Mar-21 Malaysia Labour Statistics, Jan 2021 : Jobless rate up as MCO2.0 came into effect Suhaimi Ilias
09-Mar-21 Malaysia External Reserves, end-Feb 2021: ADEQUATE AMID MARKET TANTRUM RISK Suhaimi Ilias
10-Mar-21 Philippines Labour Market: “Sticky” unemployment rate Suhaimi Ilias
12-Mar-21 Malaysia Output & Domestic Trade, Jan 2021: Bigger monthly GDP drop in Jan 2021 Suhaimi Ilias
12-Mar-21 Philippines External Trade, Jan 2021: Weak beginning to 2021 Suhaimi Ilias
15-Mar-21 Philippines OFWR, Jan 2021: Usual dip after Dec 2020’s seasonal surge Suhaimi Ilias
15-Mar-21 Indonesia Economics: Exports Resilient While Imports Rebound in Feb; Retail Sales Sluggish Ju Ye Lee
March 19, 2021 36

ASEAN X Macro
Strategy
01-Sep-20 Malaysia Strategy : 08/20: Equity Fund Flows Wong Chew Hann
03-Sep-20 Malaysia 2Q20 Results Roundup: Weak, but unsurprisingly Anand Pathmakanthan
04-Sep-20 ASEAN X Macro: Liquidity, Inflation, Valuation and Troubling Times Regional Research Team
04-Sep-20 Investment Strategy: Liquidity, Inflation, Valuation and Troubling Times Willie Chan
04-Sep-20 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (24 Aug – 4 Sept, 2020) Regional Research Team
10-Sep-20 Indonesia Strategy: Delay, not quash Isnaputra Iskandar
18-Sep-20 ASEAN X Macro: The Pandemic Economy: Recession & Recovery Regional Research Team
18-Sep-20 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (7 – 18 Sept, 2020) Regional Research Team
01-Oct-20 Malaysia Strategy: 09/20: Equity Fund Flows Wong Chew Hann
02-Oct-20 ASEAN X Macro: Taking Stock of Sustainable Bond Financing Regional Research Team
02-Oct-20 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (21 Sept - 2 Oct, 2020) Regional Research Team
06-Oct-20 Indonesia Strategy: The Omnibus law finally passed Isnaputra Iskandar
08-Oct-20 Malaysia Strategy: Multiple uncertainties = growth continuing to outperform value Anand Pathmakanthan
09-Oct-20 FBM KLCI constituents review: Higher Gloves representation, goodbye Gaming? Wong Chew Hann
12-Oct-20 Indonesia Strategy: Back to recovery Isnaputra Iskandar
16-Oct-20 ASEAN X Macro: Final Lap to Elections and Beyond Regional Research Team
16-Oct-20 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (5 - 16 Oct, 2020) Regional Research Team
20-Oct-20 MKE Strategy : Sustainability: New Directions, Expanding Opportunities Anand Pathmakanthan
25-Oct-20 Malaysia Strategy: What’s the emergency? Anand Pathmakanthan
28-Oct-20 India Strategy : Earnings recovery lags economic recovery Jigar Shah
30-Oct-20 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (17 – 30 Oct, 2020) Regional Research Team
30-Oct-20 ASEAN X Macro: Malaysia Budget 2021 Preview Regional Research Team
02-Nov-20 Vietnam Monthly Strategy: November: Don’t swim at night Hoang Huy
02-Nov-20 Malaysia Strategy: 10/20: Equity Fund Flows Chew Hann Wong
04-Nov-20 Philippines Strategy: Howling Halloween Jacqui de Jesus
06-Nov-20 Indonesia Strategy: GDP growth turning around Isnaputra Iskandar
07-Nov-20 Malaysia Budget 2021: Nursing the Economy Back to Health Anand Pathmakanthan
13-Nov-20 ASEAN X Macro : The Post-Pandemic Normal Regional Research Team
13-Nov-20 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY: Highlights (2-13 Nov, 2020) Regional Research Team
27-Nov-20 ASEAN X Macro : MY Fixed Income Outlook 2021: Look Beyond the Dark Winter Regional Research Team
27-Nov-20 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (16 – 27 Nov, 2020) Regional Research Team
30-Nov-20 Vietnam Monthly Strategy: December: expecting higher volatility Hoang Huy
02-Dec-20 Malaysia Strategy: 11/20: Equity Fund Flows Chew Hann Wong
02-Dec-20 Malaysia 3Q20 Results Roundup: Positive inflection Anand Pathmakanthan
07-Dec-20 ASEAN Macro Year Ahead: 2021 Recovery and Reopening Regional Research Team
08-Dec-20 Singapore Year Ahead: Rainbow Rising Thilan Wickramasinghe
11-Dec-20 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (30 Nov – 11 Dec, 2020) Regional Research Team
13-Dec-20 Malaysia 2021 Outlook and Lookouts : The macro “tortoise” vs. the equities “hare” Suhaimi Ilias
14-Dec-20 Malaysia 2021 Market Outlook: Goldilocks makes a comeback Anand Pathmakanthan
16-Dec-20 Indonesia Strategy: 2021 Outlook: higher gear Isnaputra Iskandar
03-Jan-21 Thailand Year Ahead: 2021 - The Year Of A Tired Bull Maria Lapiz
04-Jan-21 Malaysia Strategy: 12/20: Equity Fund Flows Chew Hann Wong
06-Jan-21 India Year Ahead Strategy: FOMO rally could hit valuation bump Jigar Shah
08-Jan-21 ASEAN X Macro: Rising Commodity Prices: Boon or Bane? Regional Research Team
12-Jan-21 Philippine Strategy: Conservatively aggressive Jacqui de Jesus
15-Jan-21 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (4 – 15 Jan, 2021) Regional Research Team
22-Jan-21 ASEAN X Macro: On Vaccines, Reflation and FX Fair Values Regional Research Team
25-Jan-21 Vietnam Market Strategy 2021 : Fast-and-furious rally Hoang Huy
26-Jan-21 India Pre-budget Note: Focus likely to be on spending Jigar Shah
29-Jan-21 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (18 – 29 Jan, 2021) Regional Research Team
02-Feb-21 Malaysia Strategy: 1/21: Equity Fund Flows Wong Chew Hann
02-Feb-21 India Budget Review: Bold intentions, but execution is key Jigar Shah
03-Feb-21 Philippine Strategy: Less is more Jacqui de Jesus
07-Feb-21 ASEAN X Macro: Malaysia – Evolving Macro Policy Measures Regional Research Team
15-Feb-21 Philippine Strategy: Post-Valentines shots Jacqui de Jesus
11-Feb-21 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY: Highlights (1 – 11 Feb, 2021) Regional Research Team
15-Feb-21 Indonesia Strategy: Waiting for the last jigsaw Isnaputra Iskandar
15-Feb-21 Indonesia Strategy: Waiting for the last jigsaw Isnaputra Iskandar
19-Feb-21 ASEAN X Macro: Malaysia Property Bonds: Stay Discerning Regional Research Team
26-Feb-21 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (14 – 26 Feb, 2021) Regional Research Team
01-Mar-21 Malaysia Strategy: 2/21: Equity Fund Flows Wong Chew Hann
02-Mar-21 Malaysia 4Q20 Results Roundup: Broad resilience = positive bias Anand Pathmakanthan
05-Mar-21 ASEAN X Macro: Capital Flows & Taper Tantrums Regional Research Team
10-Mar-21 Philippine Strategy: Double your money 5year ideas Jacqui de Jesus
12-Mar-21 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (1 – 12 March, 2021) Regional Research Team
16-Mar-21 Thailand - The Myopic Eye : Shallow profit taking sets in Maria Lapiz
March 19, 2021 37

ASEAN X Macro
FX Research
22-Jul-20 FX Flash : AUD – Still A Buy on Dips Saktiandi Supaat
24-Jul-20 FX Weekly: Geopolitical Tensions May Partially Mitigate DXY Softness Saktiandi Supaat
27-Jul-20 RMB Watch : US-China Tensions Back in Focus Saktiandi Supaat
30-Jul-20 FX Monthly: 2020, Issue 7: Softer USD but Seasonality Trends Could Mitigate Saktiandi Supaat
03-Aug-20 FX Weekly: Seasonal Factors May Undermine Non-USD FX Saktiandi Supaat
05-Aug-20 FX Tech Flash : MYR: Objective Met; New Range Likely Saktiandi Supaat
07-Aug-20 RMB Watch : Turning Cautious Saktiandi Supaat
07-Aug-20 FX Weekly : Still Cautious of a Potential USD Bounce Saktiandi Supaat
14-Aug-20 FX Weekly : Fade USD Upticks Saktiandi Supaat
21-Aug-20 FX Insight: US Elections & Implications on AxJ FX Saktiandi Supaat
21-Aug-20 FX Weekly : Jackson Hole Awaits Saktiandi Supaat
24-Aug-20 RMB Watch : Bias for Strength Saktiandi Supaat
24-Aug-20 RMB Watch : Bias for Strength Saktiandi Supaat
31-Aug-20 FX Monthly: 2020, Issue 8: Dollar Swings Dominate FX Moves Saktiandi Supaat
04-Sep-20 FX Weekly : ECB, EUR in Focus Next Week Saktiandi Supaat
08-Sep-20 RMB Watch : RMB Bulls Assert Saktiandi Supaat
11-Sep-20 FX Weekly : BoJo Plays Rogue; G3 Central Bank decisions in Focus Saktiandi Supaat
15-Sep-20 FX Flash : GBP: Two-Way Swings as BoJo Plays Rogue Saktiandi Supaat
18-Sep-20 FX Weekly : RMB Key to Further Gains in AXJs Saktiandi Supaat
21-Sep-20 RMB Watch : Bulls To Pause for Recharge? Saktiandi Supaat
25-Sep-20 FX Weekly : Return of Monetary Policy Divergence Trade? Saktiandi Supaat
30-Sep-20 FX Monthly: 2020, Issue 9: COVID Resurgence and US Political Uncertainty to Undermine Sentiment Saktiandi Supaat
02-Oct-20 FX Weekly : Confluence of Trump’s Covid, Stimulus Hopes, Quad Saktiandi Supaat
06-Oct-20 RMB Watch : Bulls Recharged for Further Extension? Saktiandi Supaat
06-Oct-20 FX Flash: SGD NEER: Resilient Alongside MAS Standing Pat Saktiandi Supaat
07-Oct-20 FX Flash : Some VND Weakness on Potential Threats Saktiandi Supaat
09-Oct-20 FX Weekly : Of MAS MPC, Brexit D-Day and RMB Strength Saktiandi Supaat
16-Oct-20 FX Insight: Final Lap to Elections and Beyond Saktiandi Supaat
16-Oct-20 FX Weekly : A Window for USD to Flex its Muscles Saktiandi Supaat
19-Oct-20 RMB Watch : Macro Could Remain Supportive, Watch Other Risks Saktiandi Supaat
23-Oct-20 FX Weekly : Biden’s Lead, US Stimulus, EU’s Covid Spread to Drive Sentiment Saktiandi Supaat
29-Oct-20 FX Flash : RMB - More Room For Market Forces Saktiandi Supaat
30-Oct-20 FX Monthly: 2020, Issue 10: Focusing on Growth Momentum Post US Election Saktiandi Supaat
02-Nov-20 FX Weekly : The Most Anticipated Week of the Year Saktiandi Supaat
02-Nov-20 RMB Watch: Still A Buy on Dips Saktiandi Supaat
06-Nov-20 FX Weekly : Still Waiting Saktiandi Supaat
12-Nov-20 FX Insight : NZD: Calibrating Forecasts Saktiandi Supaat
13-Nov-20 FX Weekly : Caught in the Recurring Cycle of Covid Spread and Vaccine Optimism Saktiandi Supaat
17-Nov-20 RMB Watch: Trend is Still Your Friend Saktiandi Supaat
19-Nov-20 FX Insight : RCEP, A Partial Hedge Against US-China Trade Tensions Saktiandi Supaat
20-Nov-20 FX Weekly : Of Covid Spread, USD Diversification, US Election Tail Risks Saktiandi Supaat
27-Nov-20 FX Weekly : Pace of USD Decline to Moderate Saktiandi Supaat
30-Nov-20 RMB Watch: Bulls Pause for Now Saktiandi Supaat
04-Dec-20 FX Weekly : Unstoppable USD Bear? Saktiandi Supaat
07-Dec-20 FX Flash: MYR: Short Term Negativity to Reverse Saktiandi Supaat
09-Dec-20 FX Annual Outlook 2021: Riding the Recovery Saktiandi Supaat
14-Dec-20 RMB Watch: RMB Appreciation Could Moderate Saktiandi Supaat
18-Dec-20 FX Weekly : Contrarian Sell Signal for Risk Assets Saktiandi Supaat
07-Jan-21 FX Flash: THB: More Flexibility in Baht Liquidity, Risk Factors Weigh Saktiandi Supaat
08-Jan-21 FX Weekly : Reflation Narrative Gathering Traction Saktiandi Supaat
11-Jan-21 RMB Watch: Catching Up Saktiandi Supaat
13-Jan-21 FX Flash: MYR: To Take Cues from External Drivers Saktiandi Supaat
15-Jan-21 FX Weekly : Cautious Week Ahead Saktiandi Supaat
22-Jan-21 FX Weekly : Fed to Reaffirm Dovish Commitment Saktiandi Supaat
22-Jan-21 FX Insight: Of Vaccination, Reflation and FX Fair Values… Saktiandi Supaat
25-Jan-21 RMB Watch: Signs of Weakness Surfacing Saktiandi Supaat
29-Jan-21 FX Monthly: 2021, Issue 1: USD Finds Interim Support Saktiandi Supaat
01-Feb-21 FX Weekly : USD Bounce Saktiandi Supaat
05-Feb-21 FX Weekly : The Dollar Smiles Saktiandi Supaat
08-Sep-21 RMB Watch: Subdued Ahead of Spring Festival Saktiandi Supaat
15-Feb-21 FX Weekly : A Bull-Charged Reflation Trade? Saktiandi Supaat
19-Feb-21 FX Weekly : Pace of Inoculation Matters Saktiandi Supaat
22-Feb-21 RMB Watch: Showing Mild Weakness Saktiandi Supaat
26-Feb-21 FX Monthly: 2021, Issue 2: Both Sides of A Coin to Reflation Trade Saktiandi Supaat
01-Mar-21 FX Weekly : Seeking Reassurance Saktiandi Supaat
05-Mar-21 FX Insight: Stay the Course but Mind the Bumps Saktiandi Supaat
05-Mar-21 FX Weekly : Not Enough Assurance from Powell Saktiandi Supaat
09-Mar-21 RMB Watch: Trade-Weighted Outperformance in Times of Jitters Saktiandi Supaat
12-Mar-21 FX Weekly : One More Time to Look to Powell for Reassurance Saktiandi Supaat
15-Mar-21 BNM’s Market Initiative : Deepening the Onshore IRS Market Saktiandi Supaat
March 19, 2021 38

ASEAN X Macro
Fixed Income
17-Sep-20 Government Bond Auction : Results: GII 11/49 Reopening Winson Phoon
21-Sep-20 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week ending 18 Sep Winson Phoon
25-Sep-20 FTSE Russell Bond Index : Malaysia Retained on Watch List, China Inclusion from Oct 2021 Winson Phoon
28-Sep-20 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week ending 25 Sep Winson Phoon
29-Sep-20 MY Fixed Income Outlook 4Q20: Tail End for Rate Cut Cycle, but Not for Fiscal Support Winson Phoon
29-Sep-20 Government Bond Auction : Results: MGS 9/25 Reopening Winson Phoon
02-Oct-20 Sustainable Bonds: Taking Stock of Sustainable Financing Winson Phoon
05-Oct-20 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week ending 2 Oct Winson Phoon
06-Oct-20 Government Bond Auction : Results: GII 5/23 Reopening Winson Phoon
14-Oct-20 Singapore Rates Strategy : Maintain Relative Value Play Amid High Market Uncertainty Winson Phoon
14-Oct-20 Government Bond Auction: Results: MGS 4/31 New Issue Winson Phoon
21-Oct-20 Indonesia Rates Strategy : Strong Auction, Appetite for Duration Extension Winson Phoon
27-Oct-20 Bond Market Watch: MGS: No Respite for Duration Winson Phoon
27-Nov-20 MY Fixed Income Outlook 2021: Look Beyond the Dark Winter Winson Phoon
30-Nov-20 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week 23-27 Nov Winson Phoon
06-Dec-20 Malaysia Sovereign Rating : Fitch Lowered Rating to BBB+, Stable Outlook Winson Phoon
07-Dec-20 Government Bond Auction: Results: GII 10/30 Reopening Winson Phoon
07-Dec-20 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week 30 Nov-4 Dec Winson Phoon
08-Dec-20 Fixed Income Foreign Flows, Nov 20: Sustained inflows amid conducive external environment Winson Phoon
16-Dec-20 Malaysia: Auction Calendar 2021: Well Balanced Across the Tenors Winson Phoon
19-Nov-20 Government Bond Auction : Results: GII 9/27 Reopening Winson Phoon
23-Nov-20 Credit Market Watch: Summary for week 16-20 Nov Winson Phoon
27-Nov-20 Government Bond Auction: Results: MGS 7/34 Reopening Winson Phoon
30-Nov-20 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week 23-27 Nov Winson Phoon
06-Dec-20 Malaysia Sovereign Rating : Fitch Lowered Rating to BBB+, Stable Outlook Winson Phoon
07-Dec-20 Government Bond Auction: Results: GII 10/30 Reopening Winson Phoon
07-Dec-20 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week 30 Nov-4 Dec Winson Phoon
08-Dec-20 Fixed Income Foreign Flows, Nov 20: Sustained inflows amid conducive external environment Winson Phoon
16-Dec-20 Malaysia: Auction Calendar 2021: Well Balanced Across the Tenors Winson Phoon
04-Jan-21 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week 28-31 Dec Winson Phoon
06-Jan-21 Government Bond Auction: Results: MGS 6/28 Reopening Winson Phoon
11-Jan-21 Fixed Income Foreign Flows, Dec 20: Strong Finish to the Pandemic Year Winson Phoon
11-Jan-21 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week 4-8 Jan Winson Phoon
11-Jan-21 MY Credit Outlook 2021 - Chartbook: Rising Tide Doesn’t Lift All Boats Winson Phoon
14-Jan-21 Government Bond Auction: Results: GII 7/36 New Issue Winson Phoon
20-Jan-21 Malaysia Rates Strategy : Rate-Cut Bets Fade Winson Phoon
21-Jan-21 Government Bond Auction: Results: MGS 4/31 Reopening Winson Phoon
01-Feb-21 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week 25-29 Jan Winson Phoon
03-Feb-21 Government Bond Auction : Results: GII 3/26 Reopening Winson Phoon
08-Feb-21 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week 1-5 Feb Winson Phoon
09-Feb-21 Fixed Income Foreign Flows, Jan 21: Higher Yielding Allure Winson Phoon
15-Feb-21 Credit Market Watch: Summary for week 8-12 Feb Winson Phoon
16-Feb-21 Bond Market Watch : Synchronised Yield Upswing: Be Fearful or Greedy? Winson Phoon
16-Feb-21 Auction Preview: 20y MGS 5/40: Expect Auction Tail, Modest BTC Winson Phoon
17-Feb-21 Government Bond Auction: Results: MGS 5/40 Reopening Winson Phoon
19-Feb-21 Malaysia Property Bonds: Stay Discerning Winson Phoon
19-Feb-21 Singapore SINGA Bonds: New Kid on the Block Winson Phoon
22-Feb-21 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week 15-19 Feb Winson Phoon
24-Feb-21 Government Bond Auction : Results: GII 9/27 Reopening Winson Phoon
25-Feb-21 FMAM Investor Engagement Event: Key Takeaways Winson Phoon
01-Mar-21 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week 22-26 Feb Winson Phoon
04-Mar-21 Malaysia Rates Strategy: End of Rate Cut Cycle Winson Phoon
05-Mar-21 Auction Preview: 30y MGS 6/50: Values in Ultra-longs in Auction Winson Phoon
05-Mar-21 Government Bond Auction : Results: MGS 6/50 Reopening Winson Phoon
08-Mar-21 Credit Market Watch Summary for week 1-5 Mar Winson Phoon
09-Mar-21 Fixed Income Foreign Flows, Feb 21: Foreign Inflows Accelerated Before Global Bond Rout Winson Phoon
09-Mar-21 Malaysia Rates Strategy: Raise MGS Outlook to Neutral from Mildly Bearish Winson Phoon
10-Mar-21 Indonesia Rates Strategy: Raised to Bullish from Neutral Winson Phoon
12-Mar-21 Government Bond Auction: Results: GII 10/30 Reopening Winson Phoon
15-Mar-21 BNM’s Market Initiative : Deepening the Onshore IRS Market Winson Phoon
15-Mar-21 Credit Market Watch: Summary for week 8-12 Mar Winson Phoon
March 19, 2021 39

ASEAN X Macro
Research Offices
ECONOMICS REGIONAL EQUITIES SINGAPORE THAILAND
Suhaimi ILIAS Anand PATHMAKANTHAN Thilan WICKRAMASINGHE Head of Research Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research
Chief Economist Head of Regional Equity Research (65) 6231 5840 thilanw@maybank.com Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399
Malaysia | Philippines | Global (603) 2297 8783 • Banking & Finance - Regional Maria.L@maybank-ke.co.th
(603) 2297 8682 anand.pathmakanthan@maybank-ib.com • Consumer • Strategy • Consumer • Materials • Services
suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com
WONG Chew Hann, CA CHUA Su Tye Jesada TECHAHUSDIN, CFA
CHUA Hak Bin Head of ASEAN Equity Research (65) 6231 5842 chuasutye@maybank.com (66) 2658 6300 ext 1395
Regional Thematic Macroeconomist (603) 2297 8686 • REITs - Regional jesada.t@maybank-ke.co.th
(65) 6231 5830 wchewh@maybank-ib.com • Banking & Finance
chuahb@maybank.com LAI Gene Lih, CFA
ONG Seng Yeow (65) 6231 5832 laigenelih@maybank.com Kaushal LADHA, CFA
LEE Ju Ye Research, Technology & Innovation • Technology • Healthcare (66) 2658 6300 ext 1392
Singapore | Thailand | Indonesia (65) 6231 5839 Kaushal.l@maybank-ke.co.th
(65) 6231 5844 ongsengyeow@maybank.com Kareen CHAN • Oil & Gas – Regional
leejuye@maybank.com (65) 6231 5926 kareenchan@maybank.com • Petrochemicals - Regional
MALAYSIA • Transport • Telcos • Utilities
Linda LIU
Singapore | Vietnam | Anand PATHMAKANTHAN Head of Research Eric ONG Vanida GEISLER, CPA
Cambodia | Myanmar | Laos (603) 2297 8783 (65) 6231 5924 ericong@maybank.com (66) 2658 6300 ext 1394
(65) 6231 5847 anand.pathmakanthan@maybank-ib.com • Retail Research Vanida.G@maybank-ke.co.th
lindaliu@maybank.com • Strategy • Property • REITs
Matthew SHIM
Dr Zamros DZULKAFLI Desmond CH’NG, BFP, FCA (65) 6231 5929 Yuwanee PROMMAPORN
(603) 2082 6818 (603) 2297 8680 matthewshim@maybank.com (66) 2658 6300 ext 1393
zamros.d@maybank-ib.com desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com • Retail Research Yuwanee.P @maybank-ke.co.th
• Banking & Finance • Services • Healthcare
Ramesh LANKANATHAN INDIA
(603) 2297 8685 LIAW Thong Jung Ekachai TARAPORNTIP Head of Retail Research
ramesh@maybank-ib.com (603) 2297 8688 tjliaw@maybank-ib.com Jigar SHAH Head of Research (66) 2658 5000 ext 1530
• Oil & Gas Services- Regional (91) 22 4223 2632 jigars@maybank.com Ekachai.t@maybank-ke.co.th
William POH • Automotive • Strategy • Oil & Gas • Automobile • Cement
(603) 2297 8683 Surachai PRAMUALCHAROENKIT
william.poh@maybank-ib.com ONG Chee Ting, CA Neerav DALAL (66) 2658 5000 ext 1470
(603) 2297 8678 ct.ong@maybank-ib.com (91) 22 4223 2606 neerav@maybank.com Surachai.p@maybank-ke.co.th
FX • Plantations - Regional • Software Technology • Telcos • Auto • Conmat • Contractor • Steel
Saktiandi SUPAAT YIN Shao Yang, CPA Kshitiz PRASAD Suttatip PEERASUB
Head of FX Research (603) 2297 8916 samuel.y@maybank-ib.com (91) 22 4223 2607 (66) 2658 5000 ext 1430
(65) 6320 1379 • Gaming – Regional kshitiz@maybank.com suttatip.p@maybank-ke.co.th
saktiandi@maybank.com.sg • Media • Aviation • Banks • Food & Beverage • Commerce
Christopher WONG TAN Chi Wei, CFA Vikram RAMALINGAM Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG
(65) 6320 1347 (603) 2297 8690 chiwei.t@maybank-ib.com (91) 22 4223 2607 (66) 2658 5000 ext 1404
wongkl@maybank.com.sg • Power • Telcos vikram@maybank.com jaroonpan.w@maybank-ke.co.th
• Automobile • Media • Transportation • Small cap
TAN Yanxi WONG Wei Sum, CFA
(65) 6320 1378 (603) 2297 8679 weisum@maybank-ib.com INDONESIA Thanatphat SUKSRICHAVALIT
tanyx@maybank.com.sg • Property Isnaputra ISKANDAR Head of Research (66) 2658 5000 ext 1401
(62) 21 8066 8680 thanaphat.s@maybank-ke.co.th
Fiona LIM LEE Yen Ling isnaputra.iskandar@maybank-ke.co.id • Media • Electronics
(65) 6320 1374 (603) 2297 8691 lee.yl@maybank-ib.com • Strategy • Metals & Mining • Cement
fionalim@maybank.com.sg • Glove • Ports • Shipping • Healthcare • Autos • Consumer • Utility Wijit ARAYAPISIT
• Petrochemicals (66) 2658 5000 ext 1450
STRATEGY Rahmi MARINA wijit.a@maybank-ke.co.th
Kevin WONG (62) 21 8066 8689 • Strategist
Anand PATHMAKANTHAN (603) 2082 6824 kevin.wong@maybank-ib.com rahmi.marina@maybank-ke.co.id
ASEAN • REITs • Technology • Banking & Finance Theerasate PROMPONG
(603) 2297 8783 (66) 2658 5000 ext 1400
anand.pathmakanthan@maybank-ib.com Jade TAM theerasate.p@maybank-ke.co.th
Aurellia SETIABUDI
(603) 2297 8687 jade.tam@maybank-ib.com (62) 21 8066 8691 • Equity Portfolio Strategist
FIXED INCOME • Consumer Staples & Discretionary aurellia.setiabudi@maybank-ke.co.id
• Property Apiwat TAVESIRIVATE
Winson PHOON, ACA Fahmi FARID (66) 2658 5000 ext 1310
(65) 6812 8807 (603) 2297 8676 fahmi.farid@maybank-ib.com Willy GOUTAMA apiwat.t@maybank-ke.co.th
winsonphoon@maybank.com • Software • Chartist and TFEX
(62) 21 8066 8500
willy.goutama@maybank-ke.co.id
SE THO Mun Yi TEE Sze Chiah Head of Retail Research VIETNAM
• Consumer
(603) 2074 7606 (603) 2082 6858 szechiah.t@maybank-ib.com
munyi.st@maybank-ib.com Quan Trong Thanh
Nik Ihsan RAJA ABDULLAH, MSTA, CFTe PHILIPPINES
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8184
(603) 2297 8694 Jacqui De JESUS Head of Research thanh.quan@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
nikmohdihsan.ra@maybank-ib.com (63) 2 8849 8844 • Banks
• Chartist jacquiannekelly.dejesus@maybank-atrke.com
• Strategy • Conglomerates Hoang Huy, CFA
Amirah AZMI (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8181
(603) 2082 8769 amirah.azmi@maybank-ib.com Romel LIBO-ON hoanghuy@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
• Retail Research (63) 2 8849 8844 • Strategy
romel_libo-on@maybank-atrke.com
• Property • Telcos Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8082
Fredrick De GUZMAN chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
(63) 2 8849 8847 • Oil & Gas
fredrickdaniel.deguzman@maybank.com
• Consumer Nguyen Thi Sony Tra Mi
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8084
Bernadine B BAUTISTA mi.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
(63) 2 8849 8847 • Consumer
bernadine.bautista@maybank.com
• Utilities Tyler Manh Dung Nguyen
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8180
Rachelleen RODRIGUEZ, CFA dung.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
(63) 2 8849 8843 • Utilities • Property
rachelleen.rodriguez@maybank.com
• Banking & Finance Nguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen
Head of Retail Research
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8081
tuyen.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
• Food & Beverage • Oil & Gas • Banking
Nguyen Thanh Lam

(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8086
thanhlam.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
• Technical Analysis
March 19, 2021 40

ASEAN X Macro
APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES
DISCLAIMERS
This research report is prepared for general circulation and for information purposes only and under no circumstances should it be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation
of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that values of such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions
or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different
methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from the relevant jurisdiction’s stock exchange in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors’ returns
may be less than the original sum invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not
take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial,
legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad, its
subsidiary, holding companies and affiliates (collectively, “MKE”) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by MKE and it should not be
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This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”,
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Malaysia
Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in the form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations
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public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside
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not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
The disclosure of the Anti-Corruption Progress Indicators of a listed company on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, which is assessed by Thaipat Institute, is made in order to comply with the
policy and sustainable development plan for the listed companies of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Thaipat Institute made this assessment based on the information
received from the listed company, as stipulated in the form for the assessment of Anti-corruption which refers to the Annual Registration Statement (Form 56-1), Annual Report (Form 56-2),
or other relevant documents or reports of such listed company. The assessment result is therefore made from the perspective of Thaipat Institute that is a third party. It is not an assessment
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date or when there is any change to the relevant information. Nevertheless, MBKET does not confirm, verify, or certify the accuracy and completeness of the assessment result.
March 19, 2021 41

ASEAN X Macro
US
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UK
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Nothing in this report should be considered as constituting legal, accounting or tax advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent tax advisers.
DISCLOSURES
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Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938- H) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital
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Disclosure of Interest
Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have
assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those
companies.
Singapore: As of 19 Mar 2021, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.
Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors
should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests
and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report.
Hong Kong: As of 19 Mar 2021, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.
India: As of 19 Mar 2021, and at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report, KESI, authoring analyst or their associate / relative does not hold
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In the past twelve months KESI and authoring analyst or their associate did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the subject companies or third party in connection with the
research report on any account what so ever except as otherwise disclosed in the research report.
MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the
entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or
a related investment and may receive compensation for the services provided from the companies covered in this report.
OTHERS
Analyst Certification of Independence
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst’s
compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
Reminder
Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming
the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward
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No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.
March 19, 2021 42

ASEAN X Macro
Definition of Ratings
Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system
BUY Return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (including dividends)
HOLD Return is expected to be between 0% to 10% in the next 12 months (including dividends)
SELL Return is expected to be below 0% in the next 12 months (including dividends)
Applicability of Ratings
The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only
applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment
ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.
March 19, 2021 43

ASEAN X Macro
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March 19, 2021 44

Central Bank Digital Currencies Making Waves as Crypto Goes Institutional

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Central Bank Digital Currencies Making Waves as Crypto Goes Institutional

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March 19, 2021

Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) – How Far is Economics

CBDCs, having experimented in cross-border payments while Malaysia,

Bitcoin Has Gone Institutional

Source: Maybank FX Research & Strategy

Renminbi 6.51 6.45 6.35 6.25 6.25 6.20

Singapore Dollar 1.344 1.320 1.300 1.290 1.280 1.275

March 19, 2021 2

Fixed Income winsonphoon@maybank-ke.com.sg, (65) 6812 8807

Rates Outlook Rationale Recent data/updated thoughts

March 19, 2021 3

Focus Piece: saktiandi@maybank.com.sg, (65) 6320 1379

Far Away is this Future?

The Taxonomy of Money (aka Money Flower)

Source: Bank for International Settlements, Bech and Garratt (2017)

March 19, 2021 4

The Likelihood of CBDC Issuance Increased

Share of Respondents (%)

March 19, 2021 5

Despite a lack of progress in CBDCs, there is an undeniable broad interest in the

Motivations for Work on CBDCs Concerns/Hurdles to CBDC adoption

1. Decline in Cash Transactions 1. Legality of CBDCs

Source: Various Research papers including Payments Canada, BIS, MAS

March 19, 2021 6

The Work Done on CBDCs

Phase 4: Cross-border Payment vs. Payment (PvP)

March 19, 2021 7

China’s Digital Currency, Electronic Payment (DC/EP), e-RMB

2016 Research Institute to Develop CBDC

Sep 2017 Initial Coin Offering and Trading of Cryptocurrencies Banned

2021 Jan – Chengdu distributed CNY50mn in a lottery trial on 27 Jan.

Quick Understanding of DC/EP or rather e-RMB

 Adopts a two-tier system:

o Layer 2 – Commercial banks redistribute CBDC to retail market participants.

March 19, 2021 8

State of CBDC Progress, Cryptocurrency Stances in ASEAN

Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Philippines

Source: Various media sources and central bank announcements

March 19, 2021 9

Global Cryptocurrency Market Trends – An Overview

“All truth passes through three stages. First it is ridiculed.

Institutional and Retail Interests in Cryptocurrencies is On the Rise

Cryptocurrency is no longer a niche topic and is fast becoming mainstream. Google

March 19, 2021 10

Overall Country Countries’ Rank of sub metric feeding into the

On-Chain On-Chain No. of On- Peer-to-

Crypto Activities is Global. China and US are the prominent economic

Asia Leads in Crypto Transaction. In terms of cryptocurrency transaction

alone controls >70% of Bitcoin’s global hashrate – a measurement of how much

Bitcoin Mining Market Share (% of Global Hashrate)

March 19, 2021 12

As an Alternative Store of Value and Hedge in Times of Uncertainties. The report

- Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) has put in circulation 1mio Bolivar

Source: Chainalysis, Localbitcoins, paxful via CoinDance

Professional Traders Dominate Crypto Activities Globally. Around 90% of all

Remittances the Main Driver of Retail Demand in ASEAN. In terms of retail

March 19, 2021 13

conducted by Statista1, which shows crypto adoption is gathering momentum in

Number of Addresses Holding at

Source: Chainalysis, Coin Metrics

% Bitcoin Supply Held Over Time Bitcoin Velocity Near Lows

Source: Coin Metrics