Capital Flows & Taper Tantrums: Asean X Macro

March 5, 2021
ASEAN X Macro
Capital Flows & Taper Tantrums
Concerns that a strong US economic recovery and large US$1.9tn relief Economics
package will reignite inflationary pressures has sparked a major sell-off in Suhaimi Ilias, Regional Co-Head, Macro Research
Chua Hak Bin, Regional Co-Head, Macro Research
bond markets. The US bond yield has jumped from under 1% at the start Dr Zamros Dzulkafli, Economist
of the year to a recent high of 1.6%. ASEAN bond markets have come under Lee Ju Ye, Economist
pressure, but the impact has been uneven with bond yields in Philippines
(+86bps) seeing a larger spike compared to Indonesia (+64bps), Thailand
Foreign Exchange
(+60bps) and Malaysia (+47bps). The contagion to ASEAN stocks and Saktiandi Supaat, Head, FX Research,
currencies so far have been more limited. Markets are pricing in QE Malayan Banking Berhad
STRATEGY
tapering to start in 1Q 2022 and Fed rate hikes to start in 2023. The Fed is
adopting a policy of “average inflation targeting”, allowing inflation to run Fixed Income
Winson Phoon, Head, Fixed Income Research
“moderately” above 2% for “some time” before any tightening.
During the 2013 taper tantrums, ASEAN markets saw sharp stock price falls
(Indo -38%, Phil -29%, Thai -26%, Msia -15%) on top of currency losses (IDR
-17%, MYR -11%, THB -10%, PHP -9%). Singapore & Vietnam were more
resilient. ASEAN is not immune to another round of tantrums, but stronger
current account balances, larger FX reserves, lower inflation and limited
foreign capital inflows over the past year suggest that any sell-off will be
Regional
more modest. Large Covid-19 relief packages have, however, raised the
external debt ratio for Indonesia relative to 2013, and debt servicing ratios
for Indonesia (19.9% of government revenue), Malaysia (15.3%) and the
Philippines (13.3%). Higher bond rates will further increase these financing
burdens.
We take stock of the foreign capital flows into equity and bonds to assess
the vulnerability of a sudden exit. Foreign equity investors have been
exiting ASEAN, Korea and Taiwan markets in 2020, and piling into China &
India. Foreign ownership of ASEAN bonds have been falling, especially for
Indonesia. That’s a big change from 2013, when foreign funds were
pouring into ASEAN equities and bonds in 2012, pre-tantrums. Vulnerable
pockets to capital outflows and Fed taper may be China, India (and tech),
rather than ASEAN.
ASEAN central banks, including the Philippines and Indonesia, have
adopted their own bond-buying programs for the first time in this
pandemic recession. This could help cushion the sell-off in bonds, but the
two central banks may have to pull back from bond buying if their
currencies see a sharp sell-off or inflation jumps. The Philippines is most
at risk with headline CPI surging by +4.2% in Jan 2021, breaching the upper
bound if its inflation target of 2%-4%. The Philippines and Indonesia do not
enjoy the privilege of having a reserve currency and remain dependent on
foreign financing. An early Fed taper could bring an end to the weak US
dollar environment and penalize the IDR & PHP for monetizing their fiscal
deficits & bond-buying programs.
Year-to Date Performance of Emerging Asia Equities, Currencies and Bonds vs. Taper Tantrums (May to Sep 2013)
Current Episode (as of 3 Mar)
Unit Phil Indonesia India Vietnam Malaysia Thailand Singapore
Equity (MSCI Index) %YTD -3.9 +0.8 +8.6 +5.0 -3.8 +4.7 +5.3
Currency (against USD) %YTD -0.9 -1.4 +0.5 +0.4 -0.8 -1.3 -0.8
Bond (10Y yield) bps +86 +64 +33 -9.2 +47 +60 +46
Taper Tantrum 2013
^Equity (MSCI Index) % -28.9 -37.7 -28.5 -16.6 -15.4 -26.4 -14.9
^Currency (against USD) % -8.8 -16.6 -21.8 -1.5 -11.2 -9.7 -4.4
*Bond (10Y yield) bps +158 +323 +207 0 +108 +107 +117
^Refers to the % difference between the peak and trough between May and Sep 2013.
*Refers to the difference between the highest level reached by Sep 2013 and the level at the start of the taper tantrum (22 May).
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank Kim Eng estimates
THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY MAYBANK KIM ENG RESEARCH Co. Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 099/03/2012
SEE PAGE 31 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
ASEAN X Macro
Macro Views
ASEAN-6 Key Macroeconomic Indicators chuahb@maybank-ke.com.sg, (65) 6231 5830
Real GDP growth (%) Headline Inflation (%, average) Policy Rate (%, year-end)
2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E
Global 3.5 2.8 (3.5) 5.1 3.8 3.6 2.8 2.3 2.4 2.5 -
US 3.0 2.2 (3.5) 4.1 3.1 2.4 1.8 1.2 1.8 2.0 2.375 1.625 0.125 0.125 0.125
Indonesia 5.2 5.0 (2.1) 5.3 5.0 3.2 3.0 2.0 2.4 3.0 6.00 5.00 3.75 3.50 3.50
Malaysia 4.8 4.3 (5.6) 5.1 5.0 1.0 0.7 (1.2) 2.6 1.8 3.25 3.00 1.75 1.75 2.00
Philippines 6.2 6.0 (9.5) 6.3 6.2 5.2 2.5 2.6 4.0 2.0 4.75 4.00 2.00 2.00 2.50
Singapore 3.5 1.3 (5.4) 4.5 3.0 0.4 0.6 (0.2) 0.8 1.0 1.89 1.77 0.41 0.40 0.40
Thailand 4.2 2.3 (6.1) 3.5 4.5 1.1 0.7 (0.8) 1.2 0.8 1.75 1.25 0.50 0.50 0.50
Vietnam 7.1 7.0 2.9 6.8 6.7 3.5 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.3 6.25 6.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
Exports of Goods & Services (%) Gross Fixed Capital Formation (%) Private Consumption (%)
2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
Indonesia 6.5 (0.9) (7.7) 6.6 4.0 6.7 4.5 (4.9) 4.8 5.2 5.1 5.0 (2.6) 4.9 4.7
Malaysia 2.2 (1.1) (8.8) 7.5 7.6 1.4 (2.1) (14.5) 8.5 7.4 8.0 7.6 (4.3) 5.9 6.1
Philippines 11.5 2.4 (16.7) 7.9 6.4 12.9 3.9 (27.5) 11.1 9.2 5.6 5.9 (7.9) 5.8 6.1
Singapore 7.7 0.1 (4.3) 4.7 4.5 (4.3) 1.2 (13.7) 5.5 4.5 4.0 3.3 (14.1) 4.5 2.9
Thailand 3.4 (3.0) (19.4) 5.8 7.5 3.8 2.0 (4.8) 4.2 3.4 4.6 4.0 (1.0) 3.0 3.7
Vietnam 14.3 6.7 3.0 11.0 12.0 8.7 8.3 4.1 8.5 9.0 7.3 7.4 0.6 7.0 7.1
Source: CEIC, Maybank Kim Eng
USD vs. Major & Regional Currencies Forecast saktiandi@maybank.com.sg, (65) 6320 1379
Current
1Q2021 2Q2021 3Q2021 4Q2021 1Q2022
(as of 4 Mar)
DXY (Dollar Index) 91.6 90.5 89.7 88.5 87.6 87.6
Japanese Yen 108.0 104.0 104.0 103.0 103.0 102.0
Euro 1.20 1.21 1.22 1.24 1.25 1.25
Pounds Sterling 1.39 1.40 1.43 1.44 1.45 1.45
Australian Dollar 0.77 0.79 0.81 0.82 0.83 0.83
Renminbi 6.47 6.45 6.35 6.25 6.25 6.20

Indian Rupee 72.84 71.00 70.00 69.00 69.00 68.00
HK Dollar 7.76 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.80
Taiwan Dollar 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 28.0
Korean Won 1,125 1,090 1,060 1,050 1,050 1,060
Singapore Dollar 1.337 1.320 1.300 1.290 1.280 1.275

Malaysian Ringgit 4.06 4.02 3.95 3.90 3.90 3.88
Indonesian Rupiah 14,267 13,900 13,700 13,600 13,500 13,400
Thai Baht 30.36 30.30 30.10 29.90 29.70 29.50
Philippines Peso 48.63 48.25 48.00 47.75 47.50 47.25
Vietnamese Dong 23,022 22,800 22,700 22,700 22,500 22,300
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank FX Research & Strategy
March 5, 2021 2
ASEAN X Macro
Fixed Income winsonphoon@maybank-ke.com.sg, (65) 6812 8807
Rates Outlook Rationale Recent data/updated thoughts

US: Bearish There is still upside risks to the UST curve as we think UST extended its climb on the back of reflation
market hasn’t fully priced for a brighter US growth and theme and after Powell’s comments suggested
inflation prospects on dissipation of Covid-19 risks that that the Fed is unlikely to intervene in the
should progress in sync with the widening of vaccine increase in yields unless financial conditions
coverage. The Fed may have higher tolerance for yield tighten. 10y UST yield was around 1.56% as we
increase. 10y UST yield has overshot our 1.50% target, and write. The 2y10y UST spread widened to 140bps,
should stay elevated and volatile in the near term. surpassing levels seen during “Trump Tantrum”.
China: Bullish Premature for PBOC to start rate tightening in 1H21. The 10y CGB yield has stayed in the 3.20-3.30
Liquidity remains a key driver and is expected to stay recently and showed relative resilience vs. the
neither too tight nor too loose. Maintaining market UST selloff. China set a GDP target of over 6% for
stability is key. With China still one of the fastest economy 2021 and narrower budget deficit of 3.2% (2020:
to recovery from the pandemic, supply not expected to 3.6%).
be heavy this year, and foreign demand remains strong.
Indonesia: Neutral We think the 25bps rate cut in Feb was the last reduction Inflation remained benign with headline and core
in this easing cycle. Other factors, e.g. UST yield upside CPI of 1.4% and 1.5% respectively (Jan: 1.6%
risks, sustainability of foreign inflow and inflation outlook both). A key risk to IndoGB is regional FX
(both globally and domestically) may carry more weight. direction, as the USD has strengthened YTD as
10y IndoGB yield has risen past our then slightly bearish opposed to the overwhelming consensus view of
range of 6.25-6.50% range in 1H21. Currency weakness is extended USD weakness.
a key risk if rising US yields adds strength to the USD.
Malaysia: Mildly With global easing cycle at the tail end, still unfavourable The MPC language sounded overall neutral with a
Bearish supply profile and demand headwinds, we maintain our sense of incremental optimism, in our view,
outlook at mildly bearish, but reckon that values are although with the typical caveats on downside
emerging at the long end. 10y MGS yield has overshot our risks. MGS and MYR IRS markets have largely
3.00% target to 3.25% as we write, and could stay in the faded any possibility of rate cut this year.
3.15-3.35 range in the near term.
Singapore: Bearish MAS is expected to keep the S$NEER slope at zero 10y SGS yield has overshot our 1.35% target to
appreciation in April. Overall duration profile of SGS >1.50% and could remain elevated until some
remains more favourable than that of UST, justifying the signs of stabilisation in the UST market. Short-
negative SGS-UST spreads. SGS supply, including SINGA, term SGD rates remain stable and continue to
has room for recalibration should market demand support the front end of the SGS curve.
weaken.
March 5, 2021 3
ASEAN X Macro
Focus Piece: chuahb@maybank.com, (65) 6231 5830

leejuye@maybank.com, (65) 6231 5844
Capital Flows & Taper Tantrums lindaliu@maybank.com, (65) 6231 5847
Rising US bond yields and inflation pressures have reignited fears that taper
tantrums may haunt emerging market central banks yet again. The US bond yield
has jumped from under 1% at the start of the year to a recent high of 1.6% (see Fig
1). Optimism on the progress of Covid-19 vaccine rollouts and a massive US$1.9tn
US stimulus plan are raising inflation expectations and a possible earlier Fed QE
tapering.
ASEAN bond markets have also come under pressure, more so than stock
markets and currencies. The ASEAN 10Y government bond yields are climbing in
line with US 10Y (+57bps YTD as of 3 March), with the biggest increase in
Philippines (+86bps) and Indonesia (+64bps), followed by Thailand (+60bps) and
Malaysia (+47bps) (see Fig 2). ASEAN stock markets and currencies are however
holding up much better compared to bonds, and US stock markets.
Fig 1: US 10Y Bond Yield Has Climbed to a Recent High of 1.6% Fig 2: ASEAN 10Y Yields Rising in Tandem with US 10Y
Note: Last datapoint as of 3 March 2021. Note: Last datapoint as of 3 March 2021.
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Markets are pricing in the start of QE tapering in 1Q 2022 (Bloomberg consensus)

and the first Fed rate hike in Jan 2023 (see Figures 3 and 4). In the May 2013
taper tantrums, the timeline was about 7 months apart with the Fed starting to
taper in Dec 2013. During that period in the lead up to tapering, the US 10-year
bond yield climbed by +107bps between end Apr and Nov before jumping in Dec
(+28bps) to 3.03% when tapering started. Table 1 summarizes the timeline
comparing the 2013 and 2020 Fed QE and rate hike schedule.
Fig 3: About 62.5% of Respondents Expect The Fed To Start QE Fig 4: FOMC Dot Plot in Dec-20 Meeting Suggests That Fed Will
Tapering in 1Q 2022 And Later Remain On Hold Until 2023
Note: Survey conducted between 15-20 Jan 2021. Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE estimates
Source: Bloomberg
March 5, 2021 4
ASEAN X Macro
Table 1: QE3 Programme Prior to 2013 Taper Tantrums vs. Current QE (Covid-19 Pandemic)
QE3 Programme (Sep 2012 to Oct 2014) QE4 Programme (Covid-19 Pandemic)
The Fed announced an open-ended purchasing operation of agency
mortgage-backed securities (MBS) at $40bn per month. On 15 March 2020, the Fed announced it would purchase $500 billion in U.S.
Treasuries, and $200 billion in MBS over the next several months.
QE3 was subsequently expanded with an additional $45bn per
month in longer-term Treasuries purchases, bringing QE3 purchases On 23 March 2020, the Fed expanded QE purchases to an unlimited amount.
to a rate of $85bn per month. The Fed also announced that it would begin purchasing commercial mortgage-
backed securities (CMBS) for the first time.
On 22 May 2013, Fed Chair Bed Bernanke first revealed the FOMC's
thinking on plans for a tapering of asset purchases if the economy In June 2020, the Fed announced an open-ended commitment to buy at least
continues to improve. Bond yields climbed sharply while stock $120bn per month, including $80bn in Treasuries and $40bn in residential &
prices turned more volatile after the mention. commercial mortgage-backed securities.
Actual tapering only began in Dec 2013 when the Fed reduced its Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated in Feb 2021 that the Fed will maintain its
monthly pace of asset purchases to $75bn from $85bn. The Fed bond-buying programme at the current pace of $120bn of purchases per month
reduced its monthly asset purchases by $10bn at each subsequent until “substantial further progress” towards its employment and inflation goals
Fed meeting until Oct 2014, when it only purchased $15bn. has been made.
Total purchases under QE3 totaled $1.5tn (9% of GDP) in Total Asset Purchases Under QE4: *>$3.3 trillion
Treasuries and MBS.
* As of 24 Feb 2021, total Fed balance sheet assets increased by $3.33tn since QE measures were introduced on 15 March 2020.
Source: Rosengren, Eric S. "Lessons from the US Experience with Quantitative Easing” (Feb 2015), Federal Reserve (Fed H.4.1 release), compiled by Maybank KE
ASEAN is not immune, but stronger current account positions, larger foreign
exchange reserves, lower inflation and limited foreign capital inflows over the
past year suggest that any sell-off will be more modest and not be as severe as
the 2013 tantrums. During the 2013 taper tantrums, ASEAN markets saw sharp
stock price falls (Indo -38%, Phil -29%, Thai -26%, Msia -15%), on top of currency
losses (IDR -17%, MYR -11%, THB -10%, PHP -9%).
Over the past year, foreign capital and QE money have flowed more to China
and India, rather than ASEAN, South Korea or Taiwan. Foreign ownership in
equity markets are near historical lows in markets including Indonesia, Malaysia
and Thailand, while foreign ownership in government bonds have fallen
significantly in Indonesia. Smaller current account deficits in Indonesia and
improving current account balances also suggest lower dependence on foreign
capital inflows. ASEAN central banks have built up their foreign reserves, which
has risen to record highs in all the countries, except Malaysia.
March 5, 2021 5
ASEAN X Macro
Slow Taper & Inflation Overshoot

The Fed will be more tolerant of an inflation overshoot this time, as indicated
by Chair Jerome Powell when announcing the Fed’s major policy shift last Aug 2020.
The Fed is adopting a policy of “average inflation targeting”, allowing inflation to
run “moderately” above the 2% goal for “some time” before any changes to the
current policy stance. In his latest testimony to Congress on 23 Feb, Powell stated
that while Covid-19 cases in the US are falling, the economy remains a long way
from the Fed’s employment and inflation goals. Core inflation remains soft at
+1.4% in Jan 2021, despite the +26% jump in money supply, the fastest pace of
growth since the data was made available in 1960 (see Fig 6).
Markets are pricing in QE tapering to start in 1Q 2022 and the Fed rate hike to
start in 2023. For tapering to start, “substantial progress” would have to be made
towards the Fed’s employment and inflation goals. The current QE program at
$120bn per month is larger than the $85bn per month in 2013. Tapering will likely
be gradual, similar to the 2013-2014 episode, when monthly purchases were
reduced by $10bn at each subsequent Fed meeting since Dec 2013 to Oct 2014
(when the final reduction was $15bn). Based on a Bloomberg survey in Jan 2021,
the consensus view is that the Fed will only start tapering its QE program in 1Q2022
or later, with the tapering process likely to last for at least six months1.
Fig 5: Fed’s Balance Sheet Has Expanded Massively to $7.4tn Fig 6: Surge in Money Supply Has Not Led to High Inflation
as of end Jan 2021 from $4.2tn in Jan 2020
USD tn US Federal Reserves Assets

Covid-19
2013 Taper Tantrum Recession
8
0
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21
Source: Bloomberg Source: CEIC
The impact and contagion to ASEAN equity markets have been limited so far.
Only Malaysia (-3.8%) and the Philippines (-3.9%) have seen declines in MSCI indices
year-to-date as of 3 March (see Table 2 and Fig 7). During the 2013 episode, ASEAN
saw sharp equity sell-offs, especially in Indonesia (-38%), Philippines (-29%) and
Thailand (-26%). Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam were more resilient.
ASEAN currencies have been resilient so far, falling by less than 1.4% against
the US dollar year-to-date (see Fig 8). During the 2013 taper tantrums, currencies
that were worst hit include the Indian rupee (-22%), Indonesian rupiah (-17%) and
Malaysian ringgit (-11%). The Malaysian ringgit appears to be more resilient this
time (-0.8%), partly because global oil prices are rising currently versus collapsing
in 2013.
ASEAN’s 10Y government bond yields are climbing, in line with US 10Y (+57bps
YTD), with the biggest increase in the Philippines (+86bps), and Indonesia
(+64bps), followed by Thailand (+60bps) and Malaysia (+47bps) (see Table 2 and
Fig 2). During the 2013 tantrums, bond yields that saw the largest jump include
Indonesia (+323 bps), India (+207 bps) and Philippines (+158 bps).
1
Bloomberg, “Fed to Taper Asset Purchases in 2022 or Later, Say Economists”, 22 Jan 2021.
March 5, 2021 6
ASEAN X Macro
Table 2: Year-to Date Performance of Emerging Asia Equities, Currencies and Bonds vs. Taper Tantrums (May to Sep 2013)
Current Episode (as of 3 Mar)
Unit Phil Indonesia India Vietnam Malaysia Thailand Singapore
Equity (MSCI Index) %YTD -3.9 +0.8 +8.6 +5.0 -3.8 +4.7 +5.3
Currency (against USD) %YTD -0.9 -1.4 +0.5 +0.4 -0.8 -1.3 -0.8
Bond (10Y yield) bps +86 +64 +33 -9.2 +47 +60 +46
Taper Tantrum 2013
^Equity (MSCI Index) % -28.9 -37.7 -28.5 -16.6 -15.4 -26.4 -14.9
^Currency (against USD) % -8.8 -16.6 -21.8 -1.5 -11.2 -9.7 -4.4
*Bond (10Y yield) bps +158 +323 +207 0 +108 +107 +117
^Refers to the % difference between the peak and trough between May and Sep 2013.
*Refers to the difference between the highest level reached by Sep 2013 and the level at the start of the taper tantrum (22 May).
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank Kim Eng estimates
Fig 7: ASEAN Equity Indices Spared from Sell-Off So Far Fig 8: ASEAN Currencies More Resilient than 2013 Tantrums
Note: Last datapoint as of 3 Mar 2021. Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg
March 5, 2021 7
ASEAN X Macro
Tracking Foreign Investment Flows

We take stock of foreign investment flows for both equity and bonds to assess
the vulnerability of a sudden exit. We compare the year-to-date foreign
investment flows in recent years versus the period preceding 2013 taper tantrums.
Foreigners are more lightly positioned in ASEAN compared to the year

preceding the 2013 taper tantrums (see Fig 9). In 2020, foreigners were net
sellers of ASEAN equities, with US$20.7bn of net outflows in total for ASEAN-5
(excluding Singapore) (see Table 3). In contrast, in 2012, foreign flows were largely
positive across ASEAN, with a net inflow of $11.4bn, increasing their vulnerability
to “tantrums” and sudden withdrawals. In the current episode, more foreign
capital and QE money has instead flowed into China and India (and tech), rather
than ASEAN, South Korea or Taiwan (see Fig 10).
Fig 9: ASEAN (ex-SG) Saw $20.7bn in Net Equity Outflows in Fig 10: China & India Leading The Way In Attracting Foreign
2020, A Sharp Contrast to Net Inflows of $11.4bn in 2012 Equity Inflows in 2020
USD bn ASEAN (ex-SG) - Net Foreign Equity Inflows YTD

15 2012 2013 2019 2020 2021
10
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Note: Refers to cumulative equity flows, and aggregate of Indonesia, Malaysia, Note: Refers to cumulative equity flows. ASEAN (ex-SG) refers to aggregate of
Philippines, Thailand & Vietnam. Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand & Vietnam.
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
For equities, foreigners remain net sellers in 2021 except for Indonesia
(+$1.1bn). The other major ASEAN markets Thailand (-$869mn), Philippines (-
$509mn) and Malaysia (-$322mn) continued to see net outflows. Thailand’s
equity market has consistently experienced foreign selling since 2017, and saw the
largest selloff in 2020 (-$8.3bn).
For bonds, India (-$1.8bn), Thailand (-$37mn) and Indonesia (-$528mn)

continued to see foreign investment outflows in 2021. The Philippines (-$2.5bn)
saw large outflows as of end January, while Malaysia (+$558mn) was the only
market to see inflows (data for the two countries only available up to end January).
Foreign ownership in equity markets are near historical lows in markets

including Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, while foreign ownership in
government bonds have fallen sharply in Indonesia. Foreign ownership of
equities in Indonesia has fallen from around 47% in 2013 to 34.2% as of Jan 2021
(see Fig 11). Malaysia has similarly seen foreign share decline steadily to 20.3% in
Jan 2021, from 24% in 2013. In Thailand, foreign ownership share fell to a decade
low of 20.1% in Oct 2020 (vs. 28% in 2013), but saw a brief uptick in recent two
months (Jan 2021: 22.1%) as a result of corporate restructuring since Dec 2020. In
the Philippines, the foreign share is currently at 21.9%, compared to 27.8% in
1Q2013.
March 5, 2021 8
ASEAN X Macro
Table 3: Foreign Investors are Lightly Positioned in ASEAN - Net Selling in ASEAN Equities (Except Indonesia) and Bonds (Except
Malaysia) Extending into 2021
Net Foreign Investment Flows in Equities (USD mn)
YTD2021 (as
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
of 3 Mar)
Indonesia 1,712 -1,806 3,766 -1,580 1,259 -2,960 -3,656 3,465 -3,220 1,076
Malaysia 4,432 1,135 -2,012 -5,062 -628 2,456 -2,885 -2,683 -5,782 -322
Philippines 2,548 678 1,256 -1,194 83 1,095 -1,080 -240 -2,513 -509
Thailand 2,504 -6,211 -1,091 -4,372 2,240 -796 -8,913 -1,496 -8,287 -869
Vietnam 160 263 135 95 -356 1,075 1,802 182 -876 -341
India 24,548 19,754 16,162 3,274 2,903 8,014 -4,557 14,234 23,373 5,471
Net Foreign Investment Flows in Bonds (USD mn)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD2021
Indonesia 4,852 4,583 10,633 7,621 7,653 12,062 3,463 11,767 -4,684 -528
Malaysia 8,797 2,475 2,564 4,597 1,851 -621 -4,539 4,304 3,252 *558
Philippines -285 1,218 -372 1,553 812 440 3,911 1,034 3,570 *-2,535
Thailand 29,281 14,078 6,492 -644 9,455 10,621 8,855 -502 -1,005 -37
India 6,862 -8,489 26,252 7,560 -6,459 22,970 -6,745 3,489 -13,853 -1,817
*Malaysia and Philippines provide data on a monthly basis, latest data as of 31 Jan 2021.
Source: Bloomberg
Fig 11: Foreign Ownership in ASEAN Equity Markets Are Near Fig 12: Foreign Ownership of Outstanding Government Bonds
Historical Lows Have Fallen in Indonesia & Thailand
Source: IDX, Bursa Malaysia, SET, PSE Source: CEIC, BoT
Foreign ownership of local currency government bonds have been falling more
notably in Indonesia since early 2020. As of Feb 2021, foreign ownership was at
23.8%, the lowest since May 2010 and significantly below the 38.6% in early 2020
(see Fig 12). Foreign investors were deterred by risk aversion from the Covid-19
outbreak and relatively expensive rupiah hedging costs. A greater proportion of
bonds is also held by the central bank, with the bond-buying program to finance
the fiscal deficit in 2020 and 2021. Thailand saw foreign ownership drop to 14.4%
as of Jan 2021 from 17% a year ago. For Malaysia, foreign ownership of bonds
(MGS+GII) has remained relatively stable (24.9%), compared to 25.3% in Jan 2020.
March 5, 2021 9
ASEAN X Macro
ASEAN: Taper Tantrums 2013 vs. 2021

ASEAN is not immune to rising US bond yields and a repeat of the taper tantrums,
but will be more resilient compared to the 2013 episode.
First, current account balances are healthier even in twin-deficit countries

Indonesia and the Philippines (see Fig 13). Indonesia’s current account swung
into surplus in the second half of 2020 on the back of widening good surplus as
exports improved while imports remained weak. The Philippines is on track to
record the first annual surplus since 2016. Malaysia’s current account surplus has
widened to 4.4% of GDP in 2020 (vs. 3.4% in 2019). Thailand’s current account has
narrowed but remains in a surplus, at 3.3% of GDP (vs. 7% in 2019) due to the hit
to its tourism receipts. In 1Q 2013, prior to the tantrums, current account deficits
were worsening in Indonesia and Thailand.
Fig 13: Current Account Balances Have Strengthened Across Table 4: Healthier Current Account Balance (% of GDP) in 2020
ASEAN Except for Tourism-Dependent Thailand vs. 2013 Pre-Taper Tantrum
Indonesia Malaysia *Philippines Thailand *Vietnam
During 2013 Taper Tantrums
1Q13 -2.6 5.1 5.4 -3.7 7.1
2Q13 -4.2 0.4 4.2 -6.5 2.0
2013 -3.2 3.5 4.0 -2.1 4.5
Recent Tantrums
3Q20 0.4 7.1 4.8 5.3 12.1
4Q20 0.3 5.0 3.3 -0.8 0.5
2020 -0.4 4.4 3.4 3.3 4.2
Note: 4Q20 numbers for Philippines and Vietnam refer to Maybank KE’s estimates. *4Q20 numbers for Philippines and Vietnam refer to Maybank KE’s estimates.
Source: CEIC Source: CEIC, Maybank KE estimates
Foreign reserves have been rising significantly in ASEAN in 2020, reaching

record high levels in all countries except Malaysia (see Fig 14). In particular,
Singapore (+$91bn), Thailand (+$27bn) and the Philippines (+$22bn) saw the
biggest increase in foreign reserves from Jan 2020 levels. The Bank of Thailand has
been actively managing the baht’s strength through foreign exchange intervention.
The BSP attributed the increase to inflows from the central bank’s FX operation,
revaluation gains from its gold holdings and proceeds from the national
government’s global bonds2.
2
Business World Online, “Philippines’ dollar reserves hit new record”, 15 Jan 2021.
March 5, 2021 10
ASEAN X Macro
Fig 14: Foreign Reserves Have Climbed to Record Highs for Most Fig 15: Reserves Cover to Imports Have Surged as Reserves
Countries Except Malaysia Rose While Imports Weakened in 2020
Source: CEIC Source: CEIC
FX reserves cover to imports have risen strongly as a result, both due to the
rapid climb in reserves and import compression because of weak domestic
demand (see Fig 15). All ASEAN countries have a reserves cover of more than 3
months of imports, similar or higher cover than during the 2013 taper tantrum
period, except for Malaysia (6.9) (see Table 5). Another resilience metric, the
foreign reserves cover to short-term external debt, has also improved since 2013,
except for Malaysia (1.2x vs. 1.4x in 2Q13) (see Fig 16).
Table 5: Since the Tantrums – FX Reserves Cover to Imports & Short-Term

External Debt in 2009 (GFC), 2013 (Tantrums) and Current
Import Cover Short-term External Debt Cover
Taper tantrum Taper tantrum
GFC – 2009 - 2Q13
Current GFC - 2009
- 2Q13
Current
Indonesia 8.2 6.2 11.8 2.7 2.2 3.0
Malaysia 9.4 8.1 6.9 2.0 1.4 1.2
Philippines 12.3 16.0 15.4 11.1 5.3 9.0
Singapore 9.2 8.4 13.5 0.3 0.3 0.3*
Thailand 12.4 8.0 15.0 4.2 2.7 4.1
Vietnam 2.7 2.4 4.2 0.5 0.4
India 12.1 6.2 17.7 1.0 0.6 0.9
Note: Short term external debt series for Philippines was revised starting from 2013.
*Ratio for Singapore may not be meaningful given its role as an international financial center.
Source: CEIC, Maybank Kim Eng estimates
Fig 16: Reserves Cover to Short-Term External Debt Has Fig 17: External Debt Ratios Across Asia in Pre-Taper Tantrum
Improved for Philippines, Thailand & Indonesia since 2013 2013, Pre-Covid-19 and Current
Short-term ID MY PH TH
EXD Cover 2013 taper
GFC tantrums
12
10
0
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Source: CEIC Source: CEIC
March 5, 2021 11
ASEAN X Macro
External debt 3 and public debt as share of GDP have generally risen as
governments had to borrow to finance their Covid-19 support packages (see
Figures 17 & 18). For instance, Indonesia’s external debt rose to 39.4% of GDP as
of 4Q20, up from 36.1% in 4Q19, as foreign debt helped fund priority spending to
handle the Covid-19 pandemic, including social aid and healthcare services. Most
of the external debt ratios across emerging Asia remain moderate at below 40%,
except for Malaysia (67.7% of GDP in 4Q20). Foreign currency external debt (66.1%
of total) remains nearly twice the share of MYR-denominated external debt (33.9%).
Public debt has generally climbed because of the massive relief packages to
cushion the impact of the pandemic and recession. Public debt has climbed the
highest in the Philippines (54.5% of GDP in 4Q20 from 39.6% in 2019), Thailand
(52.1% in 4Q20 from 41.2% in 2019) and Malaysia (62.2% in 4Q20 from 52.5% in
2019).
Rising bond yields will be negative for ASEAN countries with high public debt
and debt servicing ratios. Increased borrowings by ASEAN governments to finance
the Covid-19 fiscal support packages have raised their debt servicing ratios.
Government debt servicing ratios 4 are the highest in Indonesia (19.9% of total
government revenue in 2020 based on revised Budget projections), Malaysia (15.3%)
and the Philippines (13.3%) (see Fig 19).
Fig 18: Public Debt Has Climbed the Most in the Philippines, Fig 19: Government Debt Servicing Ratios Highest in Indonesia
Thailand & Malaysia (19.9% in 2020) & Malaysia (15.3%)
% of GDP ASEAN: Public Debt

70 2019 Latest
62.2
60 56.1 56.8 54.5
52.5 52.1
50
39.6 41.2 40.7
40
30.7
30
20
10
0
Malaysia *Vietnam Philippines Thailand Indonesia
*Refers to estimate for 2020 announced in October by the Ministry of Finance. Note: 2020 value for Indonesia is based on revised government budget projections.
Note: Latest datapoint as of 4Q20. Source: CEIC, World Bank
Source: CEIC, Vietnam Ministry of Finance
3
External debt includes foreign currency debt and foreign holdings of local currency debt.
4
Government debt servicing ratio refers to total debt interest payments as share of total
government revenue.
March 5, 2021 12
ASEAN X Macro
Early End to BI & BSP Bond Buying Program?

ASEAN central banks, including the Philippines and Indonesia, have adopted
massive bond-buying or Quantitative Easing (QE) programs for the first time in
this pandemic recession to fund their Covid-19 relief packages. This could
cushion the sell-off in bonds, but the two central banks may have to pull back from
bond buying if their currencies see a sharp sell-off or if inflation spikes.
The Philippines is most at risk, with headline inflation rising to +4.2% in Jan
2021, the fastest pace in 2 years, breaching the upper bound of its inflation
target of 2%-4% (see Fig 21 and Philippines CPI – Inflation breached 4% YoY, 7 Feb
2021). The BSP and BI do not enjoy the privilege of having a reserve currency.
Market fears of an early Fed taper could bring an end to the weak US dollar
environment and penalize the IDR and PHP for monetizing their deficits and bond-
buying programs.
Fig 20: Core Inflation is Softer and Current Account Balance Fig 21: Headline CPI Has Breached BSP’s Target in Jan 2021,
Healthier in ASEAN than 2013 But Remains Weak in Rest of ASEAN
Core CPI (ASEAN-4 ex MY) 4Q trailing sum,
Mar-14
Mar-17
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Headline Inflation
%YoY Core CPI (ASEAN-4) % of GDP %YoY
6 Current Account Balance (ASEAN-4)(RHS) 7%
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand
10
2013 taper tantrums 2013 taper tantrums
6%
5 8
5%
6
4 4%
3% 4
3
2% 2
2 1%
0
0%
1 -2
-1%
0 -2% -4
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21
Note: Malaysia core CPI series only starts from 2015. Source: CEIC
Source: CEIC
Bank Indonesia was the largest buyer of government bonds in 2020, accounting
for 54% (up from 15% in 2019) of total net IDR bond issuance (see Table 7). BI
is also continuing its role of purchasing government bonds from the primary market
to finance the 2021 State Budget, and has purchased Rp40.8tn year-to-date as of
16 Feb (see Table 6). BI’s holding of government bonds has reached 23% as of Feb
2021, up from 9.9% at end 2019.
Table 6: Bank Indonesia’s Burden Sharing Program in 2020 Table 7: BI Was the Largest Buyer of Government Bonds in 2020
Purchase to Purchase to 2019 2020
Total
date (as of Dec date (as of 16
announced IDR tn % of total IDR tn % of total
2020) Feb 2021)
IDR tn IDR tn IDR tn Bank 53 14% 384 34%
1. Purchase govt bonds Bank Indonesia (Gross) 56 15% 602 54%
125.0 75.9 40.8 Mutual fund 12 3.2% 30 2.7%
in primary market
2. Burden sharing for Insurance & pension 57 15% 71 6.4%
397.6 397.6 -
public goods Individual 8.1 2.1% 50 4.5%
3. Burden sharing for Others 29 7.6% 68 6.1%
177.0 177.0 -
non public goods
Foreign 169 44% -88 -7.9%
Total 699.6 650.5 - Net IDR bond issuance 384 100% 1,118 100%
Source: Bank Indonesia Source: Ministry of Finance
The BSP is actively buying up government securities in the secondary market

with no volume limits or target tenors. Last year, the Bayanihan II Act effectively
increased the cap that the central bank may directly lend to the government to
30% (from 20%) of its average revenue. BSP has extended provisional advances to
the government with a short-term repo agreement worth P300bn in Mar 2020
(which was settled in Sep 2020). A fresh provisional advance of P540bn was
March 5, 2021 13
ASEAN X Macro
extended again in Oct and fully settled in Dec. In Jan 2021, BSP extended another
P540bn. In total, BSP’s policy and liquidity-easing measures injected a total of P2tn
(US$41.6bn or 10% of GDP) into the financial system 5.
Fig 22: BSP Purchased Government Securities to Provide Direct Fig 23: BSP Shored Up Domestic Securities
Support
PHP bn Government Securities Purchased Under Repurchase PHP bn
Agreements Domestic Securities
800 1600
Loans and Advances
700 1400 1,306 1,318 1,348
1,217
600 1200
1,022
500 1000 898
400 800
300 600 485
400 331
200 226 226 238
200
100
0
0
Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov-
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Source: BSP Source: BSP
5
Reuters, “Philippine central bank gov sees solid 2021 growth, policy support sufficient”,
12 Jan 2021.
March 5, 2021 14
ASEAN X Macro
Appendix: Summary Tables

Table 1: Indonesia - Key Macroeconomic Indicators
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E
Real GDP (%) 5.1 5.2 5.0 (2.1) 5.3 5.0
Private Consumption (%) 4.9 5.1 5.0 (2.6) 4.9 4.7
Government Consumption (%) 2.1 4.8 3.3 1.9 5.3 1.8
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (%) 6.2 6.7 4.5 (4.9) 4.8 5.2
Exports of Goods & Services (%) 8.9 6.5 (0.9) (7.7) 6.6 4.0
Imports of Goods & Services (%) 8.1 12.1 (7.4) (14.7) 5.5 7.9
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) (1.6) (2.9) (2.7) (1.1) (2.0) (2.6)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) (2.5) (1.8) (2.2) (6.1) (5.5) (3.5)
Inflation Rate (%, period average) 3.8 3.2 3.0 2.0 2.4 3.0
Unemployment Rate (%, period average) 5.4 5.2 5.1 6.0 5.7 5.5
Exchange Rate (per USD, end-period) 13,548 14,390 13,866 14,050 13,500 13,200
10-Year Government Bond Yield (%, end-period) 6.29 7.98 7.04 5.86 6.50 6.75
Benchmark Interest Rate (% p.a., end-period) 4.25 6.00 5.00 3.75 3.50 3.50
Note: 2020 values for current account balance & unemployment rate are estimates.
Table 2: Malaysia - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E
Real GDP (%) 5.7 4.8 4.3 (5.6) 5.1 5.0
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (%) 6.1 1.4 (2.1) (14.5) 8.5 7.4
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 3.0 2.3 3.4 4.4 3.5 3.3
Inflation Rate (%, average) 3.8 1.0 0.7 (1.2) 2.6 1.8
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.4 3.3 3.3 4.5 4.5 4.0
Exchange Rate (per USD, end-period) 4.06 4.14 4.09 4.02 3.90 3.86
Note: 2020 values for fiscal balance & unemployment rate are estimates.
Table 3: Philippines - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E
Real GDP (%) 6.7 6.2 6.0 (9.5) 6.3 6.2
Exports of Goods & Services (%) 19.5 11.5 2.4 (16.7) 7.9 6.4
Imports of Goods & Services (%) 18.1 16.0 1.8 (21.9) 16.8 7.9
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) (0.7) (2.6) (0.9) 3.4 1.0 0.0
Inflation Rate (%, period average) 2.9 5.2 2.5 2.6 4.0 2.0
Unemployment Rate (%, period average) 5.7 5.3 5.1 10.4 7.5 6.5
Note: 2020 values for current account balance & fiscal balance are estimates.
March 5, 2021 15
ASEAN X Macro
Table 4: Singapore - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E
Real GDP (%) 4.5 3.5 1.3 (5.4) 4.5 3.0
Government Consumption (%) 3.1 3.2 3.4 12.6 (3.2) 3.3
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (%) 5.4 (4.3) 1.2 (13.7) 5.5 4.5
Exports of Goods & Services (%) 7.1 7.7 0.1 (4.3) 4.7 4.5
Imports of Goods & Services (%) 7.8 7.5 0.2 (7.1) 4.9 5.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2.3 0.7 0.2 (13.9) (2.2) 0.5
Inflation Rate (%) 0.6 0.4 0.6 (0.2) 0.8 1.0
3M SIBOR (% p.a., end-period) 1.50 1.89 1.77 0.41 0.40 0.40
Table 5: Thailand - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E
Real GDP (%) 4.2 4.2 2.3 (6.1) 3.5 4.5
Inflation Rate (%) 0.7 1.1 0.7 (0.8) 1.2 0.8
Note: 2020 values for current account balance, fiscal balance & unemployment rate are estimates.
Table 6: Vietnam - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
Real GDP (%) 6.8 7.1 7.0 2.9 6.8 6.7
Private Consumption (%) 7.3 7.3 7.4 0.6 7.0 7.1
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (%) 10.2 8.7 8.3 4.1 8.5 9.0
Exports of Goods & Services (%) 16.7 14.3 6.7 3.0 11.0 12.0
Imports of Goods & Services (%) 17.5 12.8 8.3 2.6 10.9 12.3
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) (0.7) 2.4 4.8 4.2 3.2 3.6
Inflation Rate (%) 3.5 3.5 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.3
Note: 2020 values for real GDP growth, private & government consumption, GFCF, inflation rate, exchange rate, 10Y government bond yield & benchmark interest rate
are actual.
March 5, 2021 16
ASEAN X Macro
Table 7: Cambodia - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
Real GDP (%) 7.0 7.5 7.1 (1.0) 5.9 6.2
Exports of Goods & Services (in USD terms, %) 5.3 5.3 7.8 (6.5) 9.0 9.7
Imports of Goods & Services (in USD terms, %) 4.1 4.1 6.0 (6.7) 8.2 8.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) (0.8) 0.7 2.3 (3.3) (1.5) (1.1)
Inflation Rate (%) 2.9 2.5 1.9 2.8 3.2 3.4
*Benchmark Interest Rate (% p.a., end-period) 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.50 2.50 2.75
* Refers to one-year interest rate applied under Liquidity-Providing Collateralized Operation (LPCO) mechanism.
Note: 2020 values for exchange rate and policy rate are actual.
Table 8: Myanmar - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

FY16/17 FY17/18 FY18/19 FY19/20E FY20/21E FY21/22E
Real GDP (%) 5.9 6.8 6.8 1.0 3.0 4.0
*Consumption (%) 2.2 4.3 1.5 4.5 4.0 4.2
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (%) 1.2 6.6 2.6 (1.0) (2.5) (1.0)
Exports of Goods & Services (in USD terms, %) (0.4) 19.0 11.3 (6.6) 8.5 9.5
Imports of Goods & Services (in USD terms, %) (11.4) 9.4 (7.7) 2.0 5.0 5.0
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) (4.3) (5.5) 0.4 (2.5) (3.5) (3.5)
Inflation Rate (%) 6.8 4.0 8.6 5.7 5.0 6.0
^Benchmark Interest Rate (% p.a., end-period) 10.00 10.00 10.00 7.00 6.00 6.00
Note: Underlying months that constitute a fiscal year were changed in 2018. Fiscal year is from April 1 to March 31, up to FY 2017/18. From FY 2018/19 onwards, the
fiscal year is from October 1 to September 30. FY19/20 values for inflation rate, exchange rate & benchmark interest rate are actual.
* Myanmar does not provide breakdown of private & government consumption.
^ Refers to Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) Central Bank Rate
Table 9: Laos - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
Real GDP (%) 6.9 6.3 5.5 1.0 6.0 6.0
*Agriculture (%) 2.9 1.3 1.2 2.3 1.9 1.9
*Industry (%) 11.6 7.8 5.6 2.3 6.5 7.3
*Services (%) 4.5 6.8 6.9 (0.2) 7.2 6.3
Inflation Rate (%) 0.8 2.0 3.3 5.1 4.8 5.0
^Benchmark Interest Rate (% p.a., end-period) 4.00 4.00 4.00 3.00 3.00 3.50
* Laos’ real GDP data is provided with breakdown by industry. Data series on breakdown of real GDP by expenditure components was discontinued since 2017.
^ Refers to Bank of Lao PDR (BOL) Short-Term Lending Rate for < 1 Week
Note: 2020 values for inflation rate, exchange rate and policy rate are actual.
March 5, 2021 17
ASEAN X Macro
Performance and Valuation Summary
Equity performance by Country (in local currency terms)

--- Absolute performance (local currency) ---
Name Index level FX rate -1w -1m -3m -6m -1y MTD QTD YTD
MSCI All Country World 653 (3) (1) 4 13 25 (1) 1 1
MSCI Emerging Market 1,346 (2) (3) 9 21 31 1 4 4
MSCI Asia Pac (inc JP) 207 (2) (2) 7 19 32 0 4 4
MSCI Asia Pac x JP 697 (2) (3) 10 22 35 1 5 5
MSCI Asia x JP 890 (2) (3) 10 22 37 0 6 6
MSCI Far East x JP 842 (3) (4) 9 21 37 (0) 5 5
MSCI ASEAN 732 1 2 2 15 5 1 1 1
MSCI Emerging Asia 751 (2) (4) 10 23 41 0 5 5
MSCI EM Latin America 2,269 (4) (5) (4) 13 (9) 2 (7) (7)
MSCI EMMEA 253 0 3 8 19 9 2 5 5
MSCI Frontie 572 (2) (2) 4 11 5 (0) 0 0
MSCI Asia x JP Small Cap 1,338 1 3 14 26 45 1 9 9
China - Shanghai Composite 3,503 6.5 (2) (0) 2 4 17 (0) 1 1

China - H-shares 11,326 7.8 (2) (3) 7 14 8 1 5 5
Hong Kong - HSI 29,237 7.8 (2) (0) 9 17 11 1 7 7
Taiwan - TAIEX 15,906 27.8 (2) 1 14 25 40 (0) 8 8
Korea - KOSPI 3,043 1,125 2 (3) 13 27 51 1 6 6
Singapore - STI 3,015 1.3 3 3 7 19 (0) 2 6 6
Malaysia - KLCI 1,581 4.1 2 (0) (3) 4 7 0 (3) (3)
Thailand - SET 1,534 30.4 3 4 7 17 12 2 6 6
Indonesia - JCI 6,291 14,265 5 5 8 19 14 1 5 5
Philippines - PSEi 6,882 48.6 2 0 (4) 19 1 1 (4) (4)
India - Sensex 50,846 72.8 0 1 14 30 32 4 6 6
Vietnam - Ho Chi Minh 1,169 23,020 1 5 15 29 31 0 6 6
Australia ASX 200 6,761 1.3 (0) (1) 2 11 5 1 3 3
New Zealand - NZX50 12,225 1.4 (0) (7) (3) 1 8 (0) (7) (7)
Japan - Nikkei 225 28,930 107.6 (2) 1 8 23 37 (0) 5 5

Japan - TOPIX 1,885 107.6 (1) 1 6 16 25 1 4 4
S&P 500 3,768 1.0 (4) (2) 3 9 25 (1) 0 0

Russell 2000 2,147 1.0 (6) (1) 16 39 44 (2) 9 9
FTSE 100 6,651 1.4 (0) 2 2 14 (1) 3 3 3
Euro Stoxx 3,705 1.2 (0) 3 5 12 10 2 4 4

Source: Maybank Kim Eng, Factset, MSCI, data as of 4 Mar 2021
March 5, 2021 18
ASEAN X Macro
Equity performance by Country (in USD terms)

--- Absolute performance (USD) ---
MSCI All Country World 653 (3) (1) 4 13 25 (1) 1 1
MSCI Emerging Market 1,346 (2) (3) 9 21 31 1 4 4
MSCI Asia Pac (inc JP) 207 (2) (2) 7 19 32 0 4 4
MSCI Asia Pac x JP 697 (2) (3) 10 22 35 1 5 5
MSCI Asia x JP 890 (2) (3) 10 22 37 0 6 6
MSCI Far East x JP 842 (3) (4) 9 21 37 (0) 5 5
MSCI ASEAN 732 1 2 2 15 5 1 1 1
MSCI Emerging Asia 751 (2) (4) 10 23 41 0 5 5
MSCI EM Latin America 2,269 (4) (5) (4) 13 (9) 2 (7) (7)
MSCI EMMEA 253 0 3 8 19 9 2 5 5
MSCI Frontie 572 (2) (2) 4 11 5 (0) 0 0
China - Shanghai Composite 3,503 6.5 (2) (1) 3 9 26 (0) 2 2

China - H-shares 11,326 7.8 (2) (3) 7 14 8 1 5 5
Hong Kong - HSI 29,237 7.8 (2) (0) 9 17 12 1 7 7
Taiwan - TAIEX 15,906 27.8 (2) 1 16 31 51 (0) 9 9
Korea - KOSPI 3,043 1,125 0 (4) 10 34 61 1 2 2
Singapore - STI 3,015 1.3 2 3 7 22 4 2 5 5
Malaysia - KLCI 1,581 4.1 1 (0) (3) 7 11 0 (4) (4)
Thailand - SET 1,534 30.4 2 2 6 21 16 2 4 4
Indonesia - JCI 6,291 14,265 4 3 7 23 14 1 4 4
Philippines - PSEi 6,882 48.6 2 (1) (5) 19 6 1 (5) (5)
India - Sensex 50,846 72.8 (1) 1 16 32 32 4 7 7
Vietnam - Ho Chi Minh 1,169 23,020 1 5 15 30 32 (0) 6 6
Australia ASX 200 6,761 1.3 (2) 1 7 18 24 2 4 4
New Zealand - NZX50 12,225 1.4 (2) (6) (1) 9 24 (0) (6) (6)
Japan - Nikkei 225 28,930 107.6 (4) (1) 4 22 37 (1) 1 1

Japan - TOPIX 1,885 107.6 (2) (2) 2 14 25 0 0 0
S&P 500 3,768 1.0 (4) (2) 3 9 25 (1) 0 0

Russell 2000 2,147 1.0 (6) (1) 16 39 44 (2) 9 9
FTSE 100 6,651 1.4 (1) 5 6 20 8 3 5 5
Euro Stoxx 3,705 1.2 (1) 3 4 14 18 1 3 3

March 5, 2021 19
ASEAN X Macro
Equity performance by Country – relative performance

--- Relative performance to MSCI Asia x Japan ---
MSCI All Country World 653 (1) 2 (6) (9) (12) (1) (4) (4)
MSCI Emerging Market 1,346 0 0 (1) (1) (6) 0 (1) (1)
MSCI Asia Pac (inc JP) 207 (0) 1 (3) (3) (5) 0 (2) (2)
MSCI Asia Pac x JP 697 0 1 (0) (1) (3) 0 (0) (0)
MSCI Asia x JP 890
MSCI Far East x JP 842 (0) (1) (1) (1) 0 (1) (0) (0)
MSCI ASEAN 732 4 5 (8) (7) (33) 1 (5) (5)
MSCI Emerging Asia 751 (0) (1) (0) 0 3 (0) (0) (0)
MSCI EM Latin America 2,269 (1) (2) (14) (9) (46) 2 (13) (13)
MSCI EMMEA 253 3 7 (2) (3) (28) 2 (1) (1)
MSCI Frontie 572 0 1 (6) (11) (33) (1) (5) (5)
China - Shanghai Composite 3,503 6.5 0 3 (7) (13) (11) (1) (4) (4)
China - H-shares 11,326 7.8 1 0 (3) (8) (29) 0 (0) (0)
Hong Kong - HSI 29,237 7.8 1 3 (1) (5) (26) 1 2 2
Taiwan - TAIEX 15,906 27.8 0 5 6 9 14 (1) 3 3
Korea - KOSPI 3,043 1,125 3 (0) 0 12 23 1 (3) (3)
Singapore - STI 3,015 1.3 5 7 (3) (0) (33) 2 (0) (0)
Malaysia - KLCI 1,581 4.1 3 3 (12) (16) (26) (0) (9) (9)
Thailand - SET 1,534 30.4 4 6 (4) (1) (21) 1 (1) (1)
Indonesia - JCI 6,291 14,265 2 5 (3) 1 (23) 0 (2) (2)
Philippines - PSEi 6,882 48.6 4 2 (15) (3) (32) 1 (10) (10)
India - Sensex 50,846 72.8 2 5 6 9 (5) 4 1 1
Vietnam - Ho Chi Minh 1,169 23,020 3 9 5 8 (5) (0) 1 1
Australia ASX 200 6,761 1.3 1 5 (3) (4) (13) 2 (2) (2)
New Zealand - NZX50 12,225 1.4 0 (2) (11) (13) (13) (0) (11) (11)
Japan - Nikkei 225 28,930 107.6 (2) 2 (6) (0) (0) (1) (4) (4)
Japan - TOPIX 1,885 107.6 (0) 2 (8) (8) (12) (0) (5) (5)
S&P 500 3,768 1.0 (2) 2 (7) (13) (12) (1) (5) (5)
Russell 2000 2,147 1.0 (4) 3 6 17 7 (3) 3 3
FTSE 100 6,651 1.4 1 8 (4) (2) (29) 2 (0) (0)
Euro Stoxx 3,705 1.2 2 6 (6) (8) (19) 1 (3) (3)

March 5, 2021 20
ASEAN X Macro
Equity performance by MSCI Asia x Japan Sector

--- Absolute performance ---
Name Index -1w -1m -3m -6m -1y MTD QTD YTD
MSCI Asia ex Japan 890 (2) (3) 10 22 37 0 6 6
Energy 670 2 8 11 13 23 3 11 11
Materials 448 0 3 14 34 50 3 9 9
Industrials 156 (1) (1) 10 21 18 1 5 5

Capital goods 137 (1) (2) 9 22 17 1 3 3
Transportation 217 1 5 12 23 21 2 9 9
Consumer discretionary 736 (6) (11) 2 10 50 (2) 2 2

Automobiles & Components 1080 (7) (17) 6 52 98 (3) (1) (1)
Retailing 318 (7) (12) (2) (1) 44 (2) 3 3
Consumer staples 568 (3) (5) 4 6 21 0 (3) (3)

Food/staples retail 149 3 6 9 10 7 6 8 8
Food/beverage/tobacco 496 (5) (8) 3 6 29 (1) (4) (4)
Health care 1165 (3) (12) 3 7 48 (1) (6) (6)
Financials 398 (0) 3 9 24 15 3 6 6

Banks 294 1 5 9 28 9 3 8 8
Diversified financials 729 (3) (3) 10 18 37 2 5 5
Insurance 441 (0) 5 7 20 19 3 4 4
Real estate 211 1 6 4 7 (4) (1) 5 5
Technology 1086 (2) (4) 18 44 72 (0) 6 6

Software services 4994 (1) (5) 14 32 58 2 3 3
Tech hardware 409 (1) (4) 16 42 54 0 1 1
Semiconductors/equipment 1307 (4) (4) 22 49 97 (1) 13 13
Communication Services 197 (2) (4) 18 25 53 1 17 17

Telecoms 97 (1) (1) (4) (6) (14) (1) (2) (2)
Utilities 208 (1) 1 4 12 (0) (1) 2 2

March 5, 2021 21
ASEAN X Macro
Equity performance by MSCI Asia x Japan Sector – relative performance

--- Relative performance MSCI Asia x Japan ---
Name Index -1w -1m -3m -6m -1y MTD QTD YTD
MSCI Asia ex Japan 890
Energy 670 4 12 1 (9) (15) 3 5 5
Materials 448 3 7 4 12 13 3 3 3
Industrials 156 1 2 (0) (1) (19) 1 (1) (1)

Capital goods 137 2 1 (1) 0 (20) 1 (2) (2)
Transportation 217 3 8 2 1 (17) 1 3 3
Consumer discretionary 736 (4) (7) (8) (12) 13 (2) (3) (3)
Automobiles & Components 1080 (5) (13) (4) 30 61 (3) (7) (7)
Retailing 318 (5) (8) (12) (24) 7 (3) (3) (3)
Consumer staples 568 (1) (2) (6) (16) (16) (0) (9) (9)
Food/staples retail 149 6 9 (1) (12) (31) 5 3 3
Food/beverage/tobacco 496 (2) (4) (7) (16) (9) (2) (10) (10)
Health care 1165 (1) (8) (7) (15) 11 (2) (11) (11)
Financials 398 2 7 (1) 2 (22) 2 1 1

Banks 294 3 8 (1) 6 (28) 3 2 2
Diversified financials 729 (1) 0 1 (4) (0) 2 (0) (0)
Insurance 441 2 8 (3) (2) (18) 2 (1) (1)
Real estate 211 4 9 (6) (15) (41) (2) (1) (1)
Technology 1086 (0) (0) 8 22 34 (1) 1 1

Software services 4994 1 (2) 4 10 21 2 (2) (2)
Tech hardware 409 1 (0) 6 20 17 (0) (5) (5)
Semiconductors/equipment 1307 (2) (0) 12 27 60 (2) 7 7
Communication Services 197 0 (1) 9 3 16 1 12 12

Telecoms 97 1 2 (14) (28) (52) (1) (8) (8)
Utilities 208 1 5 (6) (11) (38) (1) (4) (4)

March 5, 2021 22
ASEAN X Macro
MSCI Country valuation

PE (x) EPS growth YoY (%) RoE(%) PB (x) DY (%)
2020F 2021F 2022F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2020F 2021F 2022F
Asia-ex-Japan 22.1 17.9 15.4 4 28 17 9 11 12 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1
China 20.2 18.0 15.4 10 18 17 12 13 13 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.5
Hong Kong 23.9 18.8 16.3 -27 30 15 6 7 8 1.3 1.3 1.2 2.5 2.7 3.0
Taiwan 21.8 18.9 17.1 26 18 12 13 14 15 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.2
Korea 21.7 14.4 11.9 20 55 20 6 9 10 1.4 1.3 1.2 2.3 1.6 1.7
Singapore 23.7 15.2 13.1 -44 57 16 5 8 9 1.2 1.2 1.1 3.3 3.9 4.5
Malaysia 20.9 14.2 14.4 -13 56 -2 8 11 10 1.6 1.6 1.5 3.5 4.0 3.8
Thailand 26.6 20.1 17.2 -40 37 16 7 9 10 1.8 1.8 1.7 2.3 2.5 2.9
Indonesia 22.0 17.6 14.5 -25 29 22 11 13 15 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.7 2.6 3.3
Philippines 26.9 18.8 15.3 -43 47 23 6 9 10 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.8
Vietnam 17.3 14.9 12.0 -1 22 24 14 17 18 2.3 2.4 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.7
India 32.6 24.9 20.4 5 42 22 11 13 15 3.5 3.3 3.0 1.1 1.3 1.5
Japan 22.4 18.3 15.8 -5 24 16 7 8 9 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.2
US 30.5 21.9 19.0 -19 40 15 11 34 40 4.1 3.8 3.5 1.6 1.6 1.7
Europe 58.7 18.3 15.4 -65 232 19 3 7 8 1.7 1.6 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.1
Source: Maybank Kim Eng, Factset, MSCI, Bloomberg data as of 4 Mar 2021
March 5, 2021 23
ASEAN X Macro
MSCI Asia-ex-Japan Sector valuation

PE (x) EPS growth YoY (%) RoE(%) PB (x) DY (%)
2020F 2021F 2022F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2020F 2021F 2022F
Asia-ex-Japan 22.1 17.9 15.4 4 28 17 9 11 12 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1
Energy 23.5 15.6 13.2 -36 57 18 5 8 9 1.2 1.2 1.1 2.3 2.5 2.8
Materials 22.0 15.8 14.3 6 45 10 7 10 10 1.6 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.4 2.6
Industrials 21.5 15.2 12.8 -22 47 19 6 8 9 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.9 2.0 2.3
Capital goods 16.8 12.9 11.3 -14 36 14 6 8 9 1.1 1.1 1.0 2.1 2.3 2.5
Transportation 71.9 26.2 18.1 -66 172 45 3 7 9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 2.0
Consumer discretionary 45.7 28.2 21.7 -7 69 31 8 12 14 3.8 3.5 3.1 0.4 0.5 0.6
Automobiles & Components 37.9 19.0 15.8 -9 111 20 5 9 10 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.0 1.2 1.4
Retailing 39.7 30.9 23.6 22 33 31 14 15 17 5.4 4.7 4.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Consumer staples 27.9 25.0 22.7 13 15 10 14 15 15 3.9 3.7 3.4 1.9 2.0 2.2
Food/staples retail 29.8 28.6 24.0 -6 10 19 9 9 11 2.7 2.7 2.5 1.5 1.5 1.8
Food/beverage/tobacco 25.4 22.9 21.1 18 14 9 15 15 15 3.7 3.5 3.2 2.0 2.1 2.3
Health care 52.0 37.1 34.9 53 47 6 11 15 14 5.9 5.5 4.9 0.7 0.8 0.7
Financials 11.5 10.5 9.5 -4 13 11 10 10 11 1.1 1.1 1.0 3.0 3.2 3.6
Banks 9.8 8.9 8.1 -8 14 10 9 10 10 0.9 0.9 0.8 3.4 3.8 4.2
Diversified financials 18.9 16.9 15.1 23 16 12 12 13 13 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7
Insurance 13.5 12.7 11.4 -1 9 11 11 11 11 1.5 1.4 1.3 2.5 2.6 2.8
Real estate 10.6 9.0 8.0 -8 19 12 8 8 9 0.8 0.8 0.7 4.2 4.5 5.0
Technology 25.2 20.0 16.5 40 31 21 13 15 16 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.2 2.0 2.2
Software services 34.7 32.1 27.7 8 24 16 18 19 20 6.2 6.0 5.5 1.4 1.6 1.9
Tech hardware 21.1 15.8 13.3 33 37 19 10 13 13 2.1 2.0 1.8 3.0 2.1 2.2
Semiconductors/equipment 28.9 23.9 19.1 60 24 25 19 21 22 5.5 4.9 4.3 1.6 2.0 2.2
Communication Services 38.3 33.6 27.3 22 29 23 14 15 16 5.2 4.9 4.3 0.7 0.8 0.8
Telecoms 22.7 20.2 16.8 -4 30 20 9 10 12 2.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 3.9 4.2
Utilities 14.0 12.7 11.6 27 11 9 9 9 10 1.2 1.2 1.1 3.9 3.8 4.2
Source: Maybank Kim Eng, Factset, MSCI, Bloomberg data as of 4 Mar 2021
March 5, 2021 24
ASEAN X Macro
Asia USD Credit

Change (bps/%)
Last
1W 1M 3M YTD
UST Yield
UST 3m 0.03 0 (2) (5) (3)
UST 2y 0.15 2 3 (0) 3
UST 5y 0.80 7 36 40 44
UST 10y 1.58 17 48 67 67
UST 30y 2.34 19 47 69 70
5y CDS - EM Asia
China 33 1 2 4 5
Indonesia 79 2 3 (11) 11
Korea 23 (1) (1) 2 1
Malaysia 42 1 1 7 4
Philippines 42 1 3 8 7
Thailand 40 1 1 3 3
FX - strengthen/(weaken) against USD

CNY 6.473 0.0% (0.2%) 1.1% 0.8%
IDR 14322 (0.6%) (2.1%) (1.3%) (1.9%)
KRW 1128 (0.4%) (1.0%) (2.9%) (3.8%)
MYR 4.074 (0.6%) (0.7%) (0.0%) (1.3%)
PHP 48.61 (0.1%) (1.2%) (1.2%) (1.2%)
SGD 1.338 (0.4%) (0.5%) (0.1%) (1.3%)
THB 30.44 (0.0%) (1.5%) (0.9%) (1.7%)
Source: Maybank Kim Eng, Bloomberg as of 4 Mar 2021
March 5, 2021 25
ASEAN X Macro
Links to past reports

Date Report title Analysts
Economics
03-Dec-20 Philippines Labour Market: Uneven labour market “recovery” Suhaimi Ilias
06-Dec-20 Philippines CPI, Nov 2020: Natural disaster-induced inflation Suhaimi Ilias
07-Dec-20 Year Ahead 2021: Cambodia, Laos & Myanmar: Rough Landing, Divergent Recovery Linda Liu
07-Dec-20 Year Ahead 2021: Indonesia: A Vaccine-Dependent Recovery, A Huge Step Towards Reforms Ju Ye Lee
07-Dec-20 Malaysia External Reserves, end-Nov 2020: Reserves picked up again Suhaimi Ilias
07-Dec-20 Year Ahead 2021: ASEAN: Herd Immunity & Escape Velocity Hak Bin Chua
07-Dec-20 Year Ahead 2021: Singapore: Recovery and Reopening Hak Bin Chua
07-Dec-20 Year Ahead 2021: Thailand: Waiting for Blue Skies Ju Ye Lee
07-Dec-20 Year Ahead 2021: Vietnam: The Best ASEAN Growth Story Linda Liu
11-Dec-20 Philippines External Trade, Oct 2020: Slippage in external trade Suhaimi Ilias
11-Dec-20 Malaysia Distributive Trade Index, Oct 2020: Down on return of restrictions Suhaimi Ilias
13-Dec-20 Malaysia Industrial Production, Oct 2020 : Stalled as “CMCO 2.0” kicked in Suhaimi Ilias
13-Dec-20 Malaysia Labour Statistics, Oct 2020: Jobless rate “sticky” at 4.6%-4.7% range Suhaimi Ilias
15-Dec-20 Indonesia Economics: Exports Rebound in November on Palm Oil Surge; Sluggish Retail Sales Ju Ye Lee
03-Jan-21 Vietnam Economics: 4Q GDP Recovery, Brighter 2021 Outlook Linda Liu
03-Jan-21 Thailand Economics : Recovery in Nov, New Covid Wave Threatens 2021 Growth Outlook Ju Ye Lee
04-Jan-21 Singapore Economics: Manufacturing Drives 4Q20 GDP Recovery, But Services Sluggish Hak Bin Chua
04-Jan-21 Indonesia Economics: Rising Food Prices Push Up Headline CPI, Expect One More Rate Cut Ju Ye Lee
05-Jan-21 Philippines CPI, Dec 2020: Follow through from natural disaster Suhaimi Ilias
08-Jan-21 ASEAN Economics: Rising Commodity Prices: Boon or Bane? Hak Bin Chua
10-Jan-21 Malaysia External Reserves, end-Dec 2020: Ended 2020 on high note Suhaimi Ilias
10-Jan-21 Philippines External Trade, Nov 2020: Dual-speed economy Suhaimi Ilias
12-Jan-21 Malaysia Industrial Production, Nov 2020: Down on CMCO2.0, with MCO2.0 ahead Suhaimi Ilias
12-Jan-21 Malaysia Labour Statistics, Nov 2020: Jobless rate inching up again Suhaimi Ilias
12-Jan-21 Malaysia Distributive Trade Index, Nov 2020: Down on CMCO2.0, downside from MCO2.0 Suhaimi Ilias
15-Jan-21 Philippines OFWR, Nov 2020: Narrowing gains Suhaimi Ilias
15-Jan-21 Indonesia Economics: Exports End 2020 on Strong Note, But Retail Sales Plunge Ju Ye Lee
17-Jan-21 Malaysia Economic Update: “3Ps”-driven outlook panning out Suhaimi Ilias
18-Jan-21 Singapore Economics : Exports End 2020 with a Rebound, Chips Recover Hak Bin Chua
19-Jan-21 Malaysia Economic Update : PERMAI Package Suhaimi Ilias
20-Jan-21 Malaysia BNM Monetary Policy: “Dovish Pause” continues Suhaimi Ilias
21-Jan-21 Indonesia Economics: BI Holds as Pandemic Worsens, Expect Final Rate Cut in Feb Ju Ye Lee
22-Jan-21 Thailand Economics: Positive End to 2020, But Baht Strength Remains a Concern Ju Ye Lee
24-Jan-21 Malaysia CPI, Dec 2020: Deflation rate eased Suhaimi Ilias
24-Jan-21 Malaysia CPI, Dec 2020: Deflation rate eased Suhaimi Ilias
25-Jan-21 Singapore Economics: Steeper Fall in Dec Core Inflation; Expect Prices to Pick Up in 2021 Ju Ye Lee
26-Jan-21 Singapore Auction Preview : 30y SGS: Tactical Buy on Steep Curve Winson Phoon
26-Jan-21 Singapore Economics: Strong Finish to 2020 Manufacturing as Chips Surge Hak Bin Chua
28-Jan-21 Singapore Economics: Budget Preview: Supporting a Smooth Recovery Hak Bin Chua
28-Jan-21 Philippines External Trade, Dec 2020: Mixed ending to 2020 Suhaimi Ilias
28-Jan-21 Philippines 4Q 2020 GDP: Full year 2020 contraction of -9.5% Suhaimi Ilias
28-Jan-21 Philippines External Trade, Dec 2020: Mixed ending to 2020 Suhaimi Ilias
29-Jan-21 Vietnam Economics: Flying Start To 2021, Exports & Manufacturing Humming Linda Liu
01-Feb-21 Malaysia External Trade, Dec 2020: Positive end to 2020 Suhaimi Ilias
01-Feb-21 Malaysia Money Supply, Dec 2020: M3 continued to moderate Suhaimi Ilias
01-Feb-21 Indonesia Economics: Lower Inflation as Food Prices Ease, Expect Rate Cut in Feb Ju Ye Lee
03-Feb-21 Thailand Economics: BoT Stands Pat Amid Uncertain Outlook; Cut 2021 GDP to +3.5% Ju Ye Lee
05-Feb-21 Indonesia Economics: Weak Domestic Demand Weighs on 4Q GDP, See +5.3% Rebound in 2021 Ju Ye Lee
07-Feb-21 Philippines CPI, Jan 2021: Inflation breached 4% YoY Suhaimi Ilias
08-Sep-21 Malaysia Industrial Production, Dec 2020: Rebound Dec but reverse in 4Q Suhaimi Ilias
09-Feb-21 Malaysia Labour Statistics, Dec 2020: Stuck on “U”… Suhaimi Ilias
10-Feb-21 Malaysia External Reserves, end-Jan 2021: USD1b up in 2021’s first month Suhaimi Ilias
10-Feb-21 ASEAN Economics: Myanmar: Déjà Vu – Military Rule & Sanctions Linda Liu
10-Feb-21 Malaysia 4Q 2020 Real GDP Preview: 4Q 2020 GDP estimate: -3.8% YoY Suhaimi Ilias
12-Feb-21 Malaysia 4Q 2020 Real GDP: Speed-bumped by CMCO2.0 Suhaimi Ilias
12-Feb-21 Malaysia Balance of Payments, 4Q 2020: 9-year high current account surplus in 2020 Suhaimi Ilias
12-Feb-21 Philippines BSP Monetary Policy: Policy rate unchanged at 2.00% Suhaimi Ilias
15-Feb-21 Singapore Economics: 4Q20 GDP Upgraded for All Sectors; Expect Targeted Fiscal Support Hak Bin Chua
15-Feb-21 Indonesia Economics: Exports Start the Year Strong, Retail Sales Past Its Trough Ju Ye Lee
16-Feb-21 Philippines OFWR, Dec 2020: Resilient rather than regress Suhaimi Ilias
15-Feb-21 Thailand Economics: Recovery Momentum Weakens in 4Q, Expect 2021 GDP at +3.5% Ju Ye Lee
16-Feb-21 Singapore Economics: Budget 2021: From Relief to Transformation Hak Bin Chua
17-Feb-21 Singapore Economics : Upbeat Start to Exports, NODX Growth to Ease This Year Hak Bin Chua
18-Feb-21 Indonesia Economics: BI Cuts Rate, Eases Lending Rules to Support Recovery Ju Ye Lee
March 5, 2021 26
ASEAN X Macro
Strategy
03-Aug-20 Malaysia Strategy: 07/20: Equity Fund Flows Wong Chew Hann
07-Aug-20 ASEAN X Macro : Global Economy Update: The Good, The Bad, The Uncertain Regional Research Team
07-Aug-20 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (27 Jul - 7 Aug, 2020) Regional Research Team
10-Aug-20 INVEST ASEAN 2020 - Philippine Research Guide Philippine Research Team
16-Aug-20 Malaysia Strategy: Windfall tax, enhanced CSR and other potential “party poopers” Anand Pathmakanthan
18-Aug-20 Indonesia Strategy: Reasonable and counter-cyclical 2021 budget Isnaputra Iskandar
21-Aug-20 ASEAN X Macro: US Elections & Implications on AxJ FX Regional Research Team
21-Aug-20 MKE-SGX Corporate Day: Good Yield Hunting Thilan Wickramasinghe
21-Aug-20 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (10 - 21 Aug, 2020) Regional Research Team
26-Aug-20 Singapore Market: Past the point of worst fear? Thilan Wickramasinghe
31-Aug-20 Thai Market Compass : Come What May, Still Expensive Maria Lapiz
01-Sep-20 Malaysia Strategy : 08/20: Equity Fund Flows Wong Chew Hann
03-Sep-20 Malaysia 2Q20 Results Roundup: Weak, but unsurprisingly Anand Pathmakanthan
04-Sep-20 ASEAN X Macro: Liquidity, Inflation, Valuation and Troubling Times Regional Research Team
04-Sep-20 Investment Strategy: Liquidity, Inflation, Valuation and Troubling Times Willie Chan
04-Sep-20 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (24 Aug – 4 Sept, 2020) Regional Research Team
10-Sep-20 Indonesia Strategy: Delay, not quash Isnaputra Iskandar
18-Sep-20 ASEAN X Macro: The Pandemic Economy: Recession & Recovery Regional Research Team
18-Sep-20 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (7 – 18 Sept, 2020) Regional Research Team
01-Oct-20 Malaysia Strategy: 09/20: Equity Fund Flows Wong Chew Hann
02-Oct-20 ASEAN X Macro: Taking Stock of Sustainable Bond Financing Regional Research Team
02-Oct-20 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (21 Sept - 2 Oct, 2020) Regional Research Team
06-Oct-20 Indonesia Strategy: The Omnibus law finally passed Isnaputra Iskandar
08-Oct-20 Malaysia Strategy: Multiple uncertainties = growth continuing to outperform value Anand Pathmakanthan
09-Oct-20 FBM KLCI constituents review: Higher Gloves representation, goodbye Gaming? Wong Chew Hann
12-Oct-20 Indonesia Strategy: Back to recovery Isnaputra Iskandar
16-Oct-20 ASEAN X Macro: Final Lap to Elections and Beyond Regional Research Team
16-Oct-20 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (5 - 16 Oct, 2020) Regional Research Team
20-Oct-20 MKE Strategy : Sustainability: New Directions, Expanding Opportunities Anand Pathmakanthan
25-Oct-20 Malaysia Strategy: What’s the emergency? Anand Pathmakanthan
28-Oct-20 India Strategy : Earnings recovery lags economic recovery Jigar Shah
30-Oct-20 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (17 – 30 Oct, 2020) Regional Research Team
30-Oct-20 ASEAN X Macro: Malaysia Budget 2021 Preview Regional Research Team
02-Nov-20 Vietnam Monthly Strategy: November: Don’t swim at night Hoang Huy
02-Nov-20 Malaysia Strategy: 10/20: Equity Fund Flows Chew Hann Wong
04-Nov-20 Philippines Strategy: Howling Halloween Jacqui de Jesus
06-Nov-20 Indonesia Strategy: GDP growth turning around Isnaputra Iskandar
07-Nov-20 Malaysia Budget 2021: Nursing the Economy Back to Health Anand Pathmakanthan
13-Nov-20 ASEAN X Macro : The Post-Pandemic Normal Regional Research Team
13-Nov-20 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY: Highlights (2-13 Nov, 2020) Regional Research Team
27-Nov-20 ASEAN X Macro : MY Fixed Income Outlook 2021: Look Beyond the Dark Winter Regional Research Team
27-Nov-20 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (16 – 27 Nov, 2020) Regional Research Team
30-Nov-20 Vietnam Monthly Strategy: December: expecting higher volatility Hoang Huy
02-Dec-20 Malaysia Strategy: 11/20: Equity Fund Flows Chew Hann Wong
02-Dec-20 Malaysia 3Q20 Results Roundup: Positive inflection Anand Pathmakanthan
07-Dec-20 ASEAN Macro Year Ahead: 2021 Recovery and Reopening Regional Research Team
08-Dec-20 Singapore Year Ahead: Rainbow Rising Thilan Wickramasinghe
11-Dec-20 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (30 Nov – 11 Dec, 2020) Regional Research Team
13-Dec-20 Malaysia 2021 Outlook and Lookouts : The macro “tortoise” vs. the equities “hare” Suhaimi Ilias
14-Dec-20 Malaysia 2021 Market Outlook: Goldilocks makes a comeback Anand Pathmakanthan
16-Dec-20 Indonesia Strategy: 2021 Outlook: higher gear Isnaputra Iskandar
03-Jan-21 Thailand Year Ahead: 2021 - The Year Of A Tired Bull Maria Lapiz
04-Jan-21 Malaysia Strategy: 12/20: Equity Fund Flows Chew Hann Wong
06-Jan-21 India Year Ahead Strategy: FOMO rally could hit valuation bump Jigar Shah
08-Jan-21 ASEAN X Macro: Rising Commodity Prices: Boon or Bane? Regional Research Team
12-Jan-21 Philippine Strategy: Conservatively aggressive Jacqui de Jesus
15-Jan-21 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (4 – 15 Jan, 2021) Regional Research Team
22-Jan-21 ASEAN X Macro: On Vaccines, Reflation and FX Fair Values Regional Research Team
25-Jan-21 Vietnam Market Strategy 2021 : Fast-and-furious rally Hoang Huy
26-Jan-21 India Pre-budget Note: Focus likely to be on spending Jigar Shah
29-Jan-21 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY : Highlights (18 – 29 Jan, 2021) Regional Research Team
02-Feb-21 Malaysia Strategy: 1/21: Equity Fund Flows Chew Hann Wong
02-Feb-21 India Budget Review: Bold intentions, but execution is key Jigar Shah
03-Feb-21 Philippine Strategy: Less is more Jacqui de Jesus
07-Feb-21 ASEAN X Macro: Malaysia – Evolving Macro Policy Measures Regional Research Team
15-Feb-21 Philippine Strategy: Post-Valentines shots Jacqui de Jesus
11-Feb-21 ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY: Highlights (1 – 11 Feb, 2021) Regional Research Team
15-Feb-21 Indonesia Strategy: Waiting for the last jigsaw Isnaputra Iskandar
March 5, 2021 27
ASEAN X Macro
FX Research
01-Jul-20 FX Monthly: 2020, Issue 6: Winds are Blowing from Different Directions Saktiandi Supaat
03-Jul-20 FX Weekly: In Search of Catalyst for Break Out Saktiandi Supaat
09-Jul-20 FX Weekly: EU Summit in Focus Saktiandi Supaat
16-Jul-20 FX Flash: IDR – Rocky Path to Recovery Saktiandi Supaat
17-Jul-20 FX Weekly: EU Summit – Deal or No Deal? Saktiandi Supaat
22-Jul-20 FX Flash : AUD – Still A Buy on Dips Saktiandi Supaat
24-Jul-20 FX Weekly: Geopolitical Tensions May Partially Mitigate DXY Softness Saktiandi Supaat
27-Jul-20 RMB Watch : US-China Tensions Back in Focus Saktiandi Supaat
30-Jul-20 FX Monthly: 2020, Issue 7: Softer USD but Seasonality Trends Could Mitigate Saktiandi Supaat
03-Aug-20 FX Weekly: Seasonal Factors May Undermine Non-USD FX Saktiandi Supaat
05-Aug-20 FX Tech Flash : MYR: Objective Met; New Range Likely Saktiandi Supaat
07-Aug-20 RMB Watch : Turning Cautious Saktiandi Supaat
07-Aug-20 FX Weekly : Still Cautious of a Potential USD Bounce Saktiandi Supaat
14-Aug-20 FX Weekly : Fade USD Upticks Saktiandi Supaat
21-Aug-20 FX Insight: US Elections & Implications on AxJ FX Saktiandi Supaat
21-Aug-20 FX Weekly : Jackson Hole Awaits Saktiandi Supaat
24-Aug-20 RMB Watch : Bias for Strength Saktiandi Supaat
24-Aug-20 RMB Watch : Bias for Strength Saktiandi Supaat
31-Aug-20 FX Monthly: 2020, Issue 8: Dollar Swings Dominate FX Moves Saktiandi Supaat
04-Sep-20 FX Weekly : ECB, EUR in Focus Next Week Saktiandi Supaat
08-Sep-20 RMB Watch : RMB Bulls Assert Saktiandi Supaat
11-Sep-20 FX Weekly : BoJo Plays Rogue; G3 Central Bank decisions in Focus Saktiandi Supaat
15-Sep-20 FX Flash : GBP: Two-Way Swings as BoJo Plays Rogue Saktiandi Supaat
18-Sep-20 FX Weekly : RMB Key to Further Gains in AXJs Saktiandi Supaat
21-Sep-20 RMB Watch : Bulls To Pause for Recharge? Saktiandi Supaat
25-Sep-20 FX Weekly : Return of Monetary Policy Divergence Trade? Saktiandi Supaat
30-Sep-20 FX Monthly: 2020, Issue 9: COVID Resurgence and US Political Uncertainty to Undermine Sentiment Saktiandi Supaat
02-Oct-20 FX Weekly : Confluence of Trump’s Covid, Stimulus Hopes, Quad Saktiandi Supaat
06-Oct-20 RMB Watch : Bulls Recharged for Further Extension? Saktiandi Supaat
06-Oct-20 FX Flash: SGD NEER: Resilient Alongside MAS Standing Pat Saktiandi Supaat
07-Oct-20 FX Flash : Some VND Weakness on Potential Threats Saktiandi Supaat
09-Oct-20 FX Weekly : Of MAS MPC, Brexit D-Day and RMB Strength Saktiandi Supaat
16-Oct-20 FX Insight: Final Lap to Elections and Beyond Saktiandi Supaat
16-Oct-20 FX Weekly : A Window for USD to Flex its Muscles Saktiandi Supaat
19-Oct-20 RMB Watch : Macro Could Remain Supportive, Watch Other Risks Saktiandi Supaat
23-Oct-20 FX Weekly : Biden’s Lead, US Stimulus, EU’s Covid Spread to Drive Sentiment Saktiandi Supaat
29-Oct-20 FX Flash : RMB - More Room For Market Forces Saktiandi Supaat
30-Oct-20 FX Monthly: 2020, Issue 10: Focusing on Growth Momentum Post US Election Saktiandi Supaat
02-Nov-20 FX Weekly : The Most Anticipated Week of the Year Saktiandi Supaat
02-Nov-20 RMB Watch: Still A Buy on Dips Saktiandi Supaat
06-Nov-20 FX Weekly : Still Waiting Saktiandi Supaat
12-Nov-20 FX Insight : NZD: Calibrating Forecasts Saktiandi Supaat
13-Nov-20 FX Weekly : Caught in the Recurring Cycle of Covid Spread and Vaccine Optimism Saktiandi Supaat
17-Nov-20 RMB Watch: Trend is Still Your Friend Saktiandi Supaat
19-Nov-20 FX Insight : RCEP, A Partial Hedge Against US-China Trade Tensions Saktiandi Supaat
20-Nov-20 FX Weekly : Of Covid Spread, USD Diversification, US Election Tail Risks Saktiandi Supaat
27-Nov-20 FX Weekly : Pace of USD Decline to Moderate Saktiandi Supaat
30-Nov-20 RMB Watch: Bulls Pause for Now Saktiandi Supaat
04-Dec-20 FX Weekly : Unstoppable USD Bear? Saktiandi Supaat
07-Dec-20 FX Flash: MYR: Short Term Negativity to Reverse Saktiandi Supaat
09-Dec-20 FX Annual Outlook 2021: Riding the Recovery Saktiandi Supaat
14-Dec-20 RMB Watch: RMB Appreciation Could Moderate Saktiandi Supaat
18-Dec-20 FX Weekly : Contrarian Sell Signal for Risk Assets Saktiandi Supaat
07-Jan-21 FX Flash: THB: More Flexibility in Baht Liquidity, Risk Factors Weigh Saktiandi Supaat
08-Jan-21 FX Weekly : Reflation Narrative Gathering Traction Saktiandi Supaat
11-Jan-21 RMB Watch: Catching Up Saktiandi Supaat
13-Jan-21 FX Flash: MYR: To Take Cues from External Drivers Saktiandi Supaat
15-Jan-21 FX Weekly : Cautious Week Ahead Saktiandi Supaat
22-Jan-21 FX Weekly : Fed to Reaffirm Dovish Commitment Saktiandi Supaat
22-Jan-21 FX Insight: Of Vaccination, Reflation and FX Fair Values… Saktiandi Supaat
25-Jan-21 RMB Watch: Signs of Weakness Surfacing Saktiandi Supaat
29-Jan-21 FX Monthly: 2021, Issue 1: USD Finds Interim Support Saktiandi Supaat
01-Feb-21 FX Weekly : USD Bounce Saktiandi Supaat
05-Feb-21 FX Weekly : The Dollar Smiles Saktiandi Supaat
08-Sep-21 RMB Watch: Subdued Ahead of Spring Festival Saktiandi Supaat
15-Feb-21 FX Weekly : A Bull-Charged Reflation Trade? Saktiandi Supaat
March 5, 2021 28
ASEAN X Macro
Fixed Income
13-Aug-20 Government Bond Auction : Results: MGS 5/40 Reopening Winson Phoon
17-Aug-20 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week ending 14-Aug Winson Phoon
19-Aug-20 Indonesia Rates Strategy: Higher Supply Next Year, Near-term Dynamics Still Positive Winson Phoon
21-Aug-20 Malaysia Rates Strategy: Updates on Malaysia’s Rising Weight in GBI-EM Index Winson Phoon
23-Aug-20 Sukuk Prihatin: Financing Economic Recovery, Rebuilding Nation Winson Phoon
24-Aug-20 Credit Market Watch - Summary for week ending 21-Aug Winson Phoon
26-Aug-20 China Rates Strategy : Yields Look Toppish in this Round of Correction Winson Phoon
26-Aug-20 Malaysia FMAM Virtual Event: Financial Market Resilience Amidst Global Uncertainties Winson Phoon
26-Aug-20 Government Bond Auction: Results: GII 11/34 Reopening Winson Phoon
28-Aug-20 Bond Market Watch : Tail End of Easing Cycle, but Far From Tightening Winson Phoon
28-Aug-20 Bond Market Watch : Tail End of Easing Cycle, but Far From Tightening Winson Phoon
31-Aug-20 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week ending 31-Aug Winson Phoon
03-Sep-20 Government Bond Auction : Results: MGS 5/27 Reopening Winson Phoon
07-Sep-20 Credit Market Watch : Rating Pressure on Genting; BI Independence on the Line Winson Phoon
07-Sep-20 Credit Market Watch : Rating Pressure on Genting; BI Independence on the Line Winson Phoon
07-Sep-20 Fixed Income Foreign Flows, Aug 20: Sustained Foreign Demand Albeit Slower Pace Winson Phoon
14-Sep-20 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week ending 11 Sep Winson Phoon
17-Sep-20 Government Bond Auction : Results: GII 11/49 Reopening Winson Phoon
25-Sep-20 FTSE Russell Bond Index : Malaysia Retained on Watch List, China Inclusion from Oct 2021 Winson Phoon
29-Sep-20 MY Fixed Income Outlook 4Q20: Tail End for Rate Cut Cycle, but Not for Fiscal Support Winson Phoon
29-Sep-20 Government Bond Auction : Results: MGS 9/25 Reopening Winson Phoon
02-Oct-20 Sustainable Bonds: Taking Stock of Sustainable Financing Winson Phoon
05-Oct-20 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week ending 2 Oct Winson Phoon
06-Oct-20 Government Bond Auction : Results: GII 5/23 Reopening Winson Phoon
14-Oct-20 Singapore Rates Strategy : Maintain Relative Value Play Amid High Market Uncertainty Winson Phoon
14-Oct-20 Government Bond Auction: Results: MGS 4/31 New Issue Winson Phoon
21-Oct-20 Indonesia Rates Strategy : Strong Auction, Appetite for Duration Extension Winson Phoon
27-Oct-20 Bond Market Watch: MGS: No Respite for Duration Winson Phoon
27-Nov-20 MY Fixed Income Outlook 2021: Look Beyond the Dark Winter Winson Phoon
30-Nov-20 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week 23-27 Nov Winson Phoon
06-Dec-20 Malaysia Sovereign Rating : Fitch Lowered Rating to BBB+, Stable Outlook Winson Phoon
07-Dec-20 Government Bond Auction: Results: GII 10/30 Reopening Winson Phoon
07-Dec-20 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week 30 Nov-4 Dec Winson Phoon
08-Dec-20 Fixed Income Foreign Flows, Nov 20: Sustained inflows amid conducive external environment Winson Phoon
16-Dec-20 Malaysia: Auction Calendar 2021: Well Balanced Across the Tenors Winson Phoon
19-Nov-20 Government Bond Auction : Results: GII 9/27 Reopening Winson Phoon
23-Nov-20 Credit Market Watch: Summary for week 16-20 Nov Winson Phoon
27-Nov-20 Government Bond Auction: Results: MGS 7/34 Reopening Winson Phoon
30-Nov-20 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week 23-27 Nov Winson Phoon
06-Dec-20 Malaysia Sovereign Rating : Fitch Lowered Rating to BBB+, Stable Outlook Winson Phoon
07-Dec-20 Government Bond Auction: Results: GII 10/30 Reopening Winson Phoon
07-Dec-20 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week 30 Nov-4 Dec Winson Phoon
08-Dec-20 Fixed Income Foreign Flows, Nov 20: Sustained inflows amid conducive external environment Winson Phoon
16-Dec-20 Malaysia: Auction Calendar 2021: Well Balanced Across the Tenors Winson Phoon
04-Jan-21 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week 28-31 Dec Winson Phoon
06-Jan-21 Government Bond Auction: Results: MGS 6/28 Reopening Winson Phoon
11-Jan-21 Fixed Income Foreign Flows, Dec 20: Strong Finish to the Pandemic Year Winson Phoon
11-Jan-21 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week 4-8 Jan Winson Phoon
11-Jan-21 MY Credit Outlook 2021 - Chartbook: Rising Tide Doesn’t Lift All Boats Winson Phoon
14-Jan-21 Government Bond Auction: Results: GII 7/36 New Issue Winson Phoon
20-Jan-21 Malaysia Rates Strategy : Rate-Cut Bets Fade Winson Phoon
21-Jan-21 Government Bond Auction: Results: MGS 4/31 Reopening Winson Phoon
01-Feb-21 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week 25-29 Jan Winson Phoon
03-Feb-21 Government Bond Auction : Results: GII 3/26 Reopening Winson Phoon
08-Feb-21 Credit Market Watch : Summary for week 1-5 Feb Winson Phoon
09-Feb-21 Fixed Income Foreign Flows, Jan 21: Higher Yielding Allure Winson Phoon
15-Feb-21 Credit Market Watch: Summary for week 8-12 Feb Winson Phoon
16-Feb-21 Bond Market Watch : Synchronised Yield Upswing: Be Fearful or Greedy? Winson Phoon
16-Feb-21 Auction Preview: 20y MGS 5/40: Expect Auction Tail, Modest BTC Winson Phoon
17-Feb-21 Government Bond Auction: Results: MGS 5/40 Reopening Winson Phoon
March 5, 2021 29
ASEAN X Macro
Research Offices
ECONOMICS REGIONAL EQUITIES SINGAPORE THAILAND
Suhaimi ILIAS Anand PATHMAKANTHAN Thilan WICKRAMASINGHE Head of Research Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research
Chief Economist Head of Regional Equity Research (65) 6231 5840 thilanw@maybank.com Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399
Malaysia | Philippines | Global (603) 2297 8783 • Banking & Finance - Regional Maria.L@maybank-ke.co.th
(603) 2297 8682 anand.pathmakanthan@maybank-ib.com • Consumer • Strategy • Consumer • Materials • Services
suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com
WONG Chew Hann, CA CHUA Su Tye Jesada TECHAHUSDIN, CFA
CHUA Hak Bin Head of ASEAN Equity Research (65) 6231 5842 chuasutye@maybank.com (66) 2658 6300 ext 1395
Regional Thematic Macroeconomist (603) 2297 8686 • REITs - Regional jesada.t@maybank-ke.co.th
(65) 6231 5830 wchewh@maybank-ib.com • Banking & Finance
chuahb@maybank.com LAI Gene Lih, CFA
ONG Seng Yeow (65) 6231 5832 laigenelih@maybank.com Kaushal LADHA, CFA
LEE Ju Ye Research, Technology & Innovation • Technology • Healthcare (66) 2658 6300 ext 1392
Singapore | Thailand | Indonesia (65) 6231 5839 Kaushal.l@maybank-ke.co.th
(65) 6231 5844 ongsengyeow@maybank.com Kareen CHAN • Oil & Gas – Regional
leejuye@maybank.com (65) 6231 5926 kareenchan@maybank.com • Petrochemicals - Regional
MALAYSIA • Transport • Telcos • Utilities
Linda LIU
Singapore | Vietnam | Anand PATHMAKANTHAN Head of Research Eric ONG Vanida GEISLER, CPA
Cambodia | Myanmar | Laos (603) 2297 8783 (65) 6231 5924 ericong@maybank.com (66) 2658 6300 ext 1394
(65) 6231 5847 anand.pathmakanthan@maybank-ib.com • Retail Research Vanida.G@maybank-ke.co.th
lindaliu@maybank.com • Strategy • Property • REITs
Matthew SHIM
Dr Zamros DZULKAFLI Desmond CH’NG, BFP, FCA (65) 6231 5929 Yuwanee PROMMAPORN
(603) 2082 6818 (603) 2297 8680 matthewshim@maybank.com (66) 2658 6300 ext 1393
zamros.d@maybank-ib.com desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com • Retail Research Yuwanee.P @maybank-ke.co.th
• Banking & Finance • Services • Healthcare
Ramesh LANKANATHAN INDIA
(603) 2297 8685 LIAW Thong Jung Ekachai TARAPORNTIP Head of Retail Research
ramesh@maybank-ib.com (603) 2297 8688 tjliaw@maybank-ib.com Jigar SHAH Head of Research (66) 2658 5000 ext 1530
• Oil & Gas Services- Regional (91) 22 4223 2632 jigars@maybank.com Ekachai.t@maybank-ke.co.th
William POH • Automotive • Strategy • Oil & Gas • Automobile • Cement
(603) 2297 8683 Surachai PRAMUALCHAROENKIT
william.poh@maybank-ib.com ONG Chee Ting, CA Neerav DALAL (66) 2658 5000 ext 1470
(603) 2297 8678 ct.ong@maybank-ib.com (91) 22 4223 2606 neerav@maybank.com Surachai.p@maybank-ke.co.th
FX • Plantations - Regional • Software Technology • Telcos • Auto • Conmat • Contractor • Steel
Saktiandi SUPAAT YIN Shao Yang, CPA Kshitiz PRASAD Suttatip PEERASUB
Head of FX Research (603) 2297 8916 samuel.y@maybank-ib.com (91) 22 4223 2607 (66) 2658 5000 ext 1430
(65) 6320 1379 • Gaming – Regional kshitiz@maybank.com suttatip.p@maybank-ke.co.th
saktiandi@maybank.com.sg • Media • Aviation • Banks • Food & Beverage • Commerce
Christopher WONG TAN Chi Wei, CFA Vikram RAMALINGAM Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG
(65) 6320 1347 (603) 2297 8690 chiwei.t@maybank-ib.com (91) 22 4223 2607 (66) 2658 5000 ext 1404
wongkl@maybank.com.sg • Power • Telcos vikram@maybank.com jaroonpan.w@maybank-ke.co.th
• Automobile • Media • Transportation • Small cap
TAN Yanxi WONG Wei Sum, CFA
(65) 6320 1378 (603) 2297 8679 weisum@maybank-ib.com INDONESIA Thanatphat SUKSRICHAVALIT
tanyx@maybank.com.sg • Property Isnaputra ISKANDAR Head of Research (66) 2658 5000 ext 1401
(62) 21 8066 8680 thanaphat.s@maybank-ke.co.th
Fiona LIM LEE Yen Ling isnaputra.iskandar@maybank-ke.co.id • Media • Electronics
(65) 6320 1374 (603) 2297 8691 lee.yl@maybank-ib.com • Strategy • Metals & Mining • Cement
fionalim@maybank.com.sg • Glove • Ports • Shipping • Healthcare • Autos • Consumer • Utility Wijit ARAYAPISIT
• Petrochemicals (66) 2658 5000 ext 1450
STRATEGY Rahmi MARINA wijit.a@maybank-ke.co.th
Kevin WONG (62) 21 8066 8689 • Strategist
Anand PATHMAKANTHAN (603) 2082 6824 kevin.wong@maybank-ib.com rahmi.marina@maybank-ke.co.id
ASEAN • REITs • Technology • Banking & Finance Theerasate PROMPONG
(603) 2297 8783 (66) 2658 5000 ext 1400
anand.pathmakanthan@maybank-ib.com Jade TAM theerasate.p@maybank-ke.co.th
Aurellia SETIABUDI
(603) 2297 8687 jade.tam@maybank-ib.com (62) 21 8066 8691 • Equity Portfolio Strategist
FIXED INCOME • Consumer Staples & Discretionary aurellia.setiabudi@maybank-ke.co.id
• Property Apiwat TAVESIRIVATE
Winson PHOON, ACA Fahmi FARID (66) 2658 5000 ext 1310
(65) 6812 8807 (603) 2297 8676 fahmi.farid@maybank-ib.com Willy GOUTAMA apiwat.t@maybank-ke.co.th
winsonphoon@maybank.com • Software • Chartist and TFEX
(62) 21 8066 8500
willy.goutama@maybank-ke.co.id
SE THO Mun Yi TEE Sze Chiah Head of Retail Research VIETNAM
• Consumer
(603) 2074 7606 (603) 2082 6858 szechiah.t@maybank-ib.com
munyi.st@maybank-ib.com Quan Trong Thanh
Nik Ihsan RAJA ABDULLAH, MSTA, CFTe PHILIPPINES
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8184
(603) 2297 8694 Jacqui De JESUS Head of Research thanh.quan@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
nikmohdihsan.ra@maybank-ib.com (63) 2 8849 8844 • Banks
• Chartist jacquiannekelly.dejesus@maybank-atrke.com
• Strategy • Conglomerates Hoang Huy, CFA
Amirah AZMI (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8181
(603) 2082 8769 amirah.azmi@maybank-ib.com Romel LIBO-ON hoanghuy@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
• Retail Research (63) 2 8849 8844 • Strategy
romel_libo-on@maybank-atrke.com
• Property • Telcos Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8082
Fredrick De GUZMAN chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
(63) 2 8849 8847 • Oil & Gas
fredrickdaniel.deguzman@maybank.com
• Consumer Nguyen Thi Sony Tra Mi
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8084
Bernadine B BAUTISTA mi.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
(63) 2 8849 8847 • Consumer
bernadine.bautista@maybank.com
• Utilities Tyler Manh Dung Nguyen
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8180
Rachelleen RODRIGUEZ, CFA dung.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
(63) 2 8849 8843 • Utilities • Property
rachelleen.rodriguez@maybank.com
• Banking & Finance Nguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen
Head of Retail Research
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8081
tuyen.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
• Food & Beverage • Oil & Gas • Banking
Nguyen Thanh Lam

(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8086
thanhlam.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
• Technical Analysis
March 5, 2021 30
ASEAN X Macro
APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES
DISCLAIMERS
This research report is prepared for general circulation and for information purposes only and under no circumstances should it be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation
of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that values of such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions
or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different
methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from the relevant jurisdiction’s stock exchange in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors’ returns
may be less than the original sum invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not
take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial,
legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad, its
subsidiary, holding companies and affiliates (collectively, “MKE”) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by MKE and it should not be
relied upon as such. Accordingly, MKE and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees (collectively, “Representatives”) shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or
consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Any information, opinions or recommen dations contained herein are subject to change at any time,
without prior notice.
This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”,
“forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such
forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to
differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward-looking statements. MKE expressly disclaims
any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of
unanticipated events.
MKE and its officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, from time to time participate or
invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or holding, or
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This report is prepared for the use of MKE’s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or
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Malaysia
Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in the form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations
apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis.
Singapore
This report has been jointly produced by Malayan Banking Berhad (“MBB”) in respect of foreign exchange research and Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. (“Maybank KERPL”) in respect of
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Thailand
Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior written permission of Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand)
Public Company Limited. Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (“MBKET”) accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
Due to different characteristics, objectives and strategies of institutional and retail investors, the research products of MBKET Institutional and Retail Research departments may differ in
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The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and
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public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside
information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey may be changed after that date. MBKET does
not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
The disclosure of the Anti-Corruption Progress Indicators of a listed company on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, which is assessed by Thaipat Institute, is made in order to comply with the
policy and sustainable development plan for the listed companies of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Thaipat Institute made this assessment based on the information
received from the listed company, as stipulated in the form for the assessment of Anti-corruption which refers to the Annual Registration Statement (Form 56-1), Annual Report (Form 56-2),
or other relevant documents or reports of such listed company. The assessment result is therefore made from the perspective of Thaipat Institute that is a third party. It is not an assessment
of operation and is not based on any inside information. Since this assessment is only the assessment result as of the date appearing in the assessment result, it may be changed after that
date or when there is any change to the relevant information. Nevertheless, MBKET does not confirm, verify, or certify the accuracy and completeness of the assessment result.
March 5, 2021 31
ASEAN X Macro
US
This third-party research report is distributed in the United States (“US”) to Major US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended)
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UK
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Nothing in this report should be considered as constituting legal, accounting or tax advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent tax advisers.
DISCLOSURES
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assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those
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Singapore: As of 5 Mar 2021, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.
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OTHERS
Analyst Certification of Independence
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst’s
compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
Reminder
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No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.
March 5, 2021 32
ASEAN X Macro
Definition of Ratings
Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system
BUY Return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (including dividends)
HOLD Return is expected to be between 0% to 10% in the next 12 months (including dividends)
SELL Return is expected to be below 0% in the next 12 months (including dividends)
Applicability of Ratings
The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only
applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment
ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.
March 5, 2021 33
ASEAN X Macro
 Malaysia  Singapore  London  New York

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March 5, 2021 34

Capital Flows & Taper Tantrums: Asean X Macro

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Capital Flows & Taper Tantrums: Asean X Macro

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March 5, 2021

Renminbi 6.47 6.45 6.35 6.25 6.25 6.20

Singapore Dollar 1.337 1.320 1.300 1.290 1.280 1.275

Fixed Income winsonphoon@maybank-ke.com.sg, (65) 6812 8807

Rates Outlook Rationale Recent data/updated thoughts

Focus Piece: chuahb@maybank.com, (65) 6231 5830

Capital Flows & Taper Tantrums lindaliu@maybank.com, (65) 6231 5847

Markets are pricing in the start of QE tapering in 1Q 2022 (Bloomberg consensus)

Slow Taper & Inflation Overshoot

USD tn US Federal Reserves Assets

Source: Bloomberg Source: CEIC

Note: Last datapoint as of 3 Mar 2021. Source: Bloomberg

Tracking Foreign Investment Flows

Foreigners are more lightly positioned in ASEAN compared to the year

USD bn ASEAN (ex-SG) - Net Foreign Equity Inflows YTD

For bonds, India (-$1.8bn), Thailand (-$37mn) and Indonesia (-$528mn)

Foreign ownership in equity markets are near historical lows in markets

Source: IDX, Bursa Malaysia, SET, PSE Source: CEIC, BoT

ASEAN: Taper Tantrums 2013 vs. 2021

First, current account balances are healthier even in twin-deficit countries

During 2013 Taper Tantrums

1Q13 -2.6 5.1 5.4 -3.7 7.1

2Q13 -4.2 0.4 4.2 -6.5 2.0

2013 -3.2 3.5 4.0 -2.1 4.5

3Q20 0.4 7.1 4.8 5.3 12.1

4Q20 0.3 5.0 3.3 -0.8 0.5

2020 -0.4 4.4 3.4 3.3 4.2

Foreign reserves have been rising significantly in ASEAN in 2020, reaching

Source: CEIC Source: CEIC

Table 5: Since the Tantrums – FX Reserves Cover to Imports & Short-Term

% of GDP ASEAN: Public Debt

Early End to BI & BSP Bond Buying Program?

The BSP is actively buying up government securities in the secondary market

300 600 485

Appendix: Summary Tables

Table 2: Malaysia - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

Table 3: Philippines - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

Table 4: Singapore - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

Table 5: Thailand - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

Table 6: Vietnam - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

Table 7: Cambodia - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

Table 8: Myanmar - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

Table 9: Laos - Key Macroeconomic Indicators

Performance and Valuation Summary

Equity performance by Country (in local currency terms)

China - Shanghai Composite 3,503 6.5 (2) (0) 2 4 17 (0) 1 1

Hong Kong - HSI 29,237 7.8 (2) (0) 9 17 11 1 7 7

Taiwan - TAIEX 15,906 27.8 (2) 1 14 25 40 (0) 8 8

Korea - KOSPI 3,043 1,125 2 (3) 13 27 51 1 6 6

Singapore - STI 3,015 1.3 3 3 7 19 (0) 2 6 6

Malaysia - KLCI 1,581 4.1 2 (0) (3) 4 7 0 (3) (3)

Thailand - SET 1,534 30.4 3 4 7 17 12 2 6 6

Indonesia - JCI 6,291 14,265 5 5 8 19 14 1 5 5

Philippines - PSEi 6,882 48.6 2 0 (4) 19 1 1 (4) (4)

India - Sensex 50,846 72.8 0 1 14 30 32 4 6 6

Vietnam - Ho Chi Minh 1,169 23,020 1 5 15 29 31 0 6 6

Australia ASX 200 6,761 1.3 (0) (1) 2 11 5 1 3 3

Japan - Nikkei 225 28,930 107.6 (2) 1 8 23 37 (0) 5 5

S&P 500 3,768 1.0 (4) (2) 3 9 25 (1) 0 0

FTSE 100 6,651 1.4 (0) 2 2 14 (1) 3 3 3

Euro Stoxx 3,705 1.2 (0) 3 5 12 10 2 4 4

Equity performance by Country (in USD terms)