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AIM ITALIA
VALUETRACK
Research Team
Tel: +39 02 80886654
Source: Value Track Analysis //Adjusted for better visibility (*) not including financial firms
AIM “Corp” FY20: lower profits, higher multiples
STOCKS WITH THE HIGHEST FY20 TOP LINE GROWTH YOY
AIM Italia Corporate on an aggregated basis in FY20 recorded almost stable
89
Revenues (-2.1% YoY) but much lower profits (EBITDA, EBIT, Adjusted Net 77 75 71 69
Profit down -6%, -35% and -32% YoY respectively) due to fixed costs and to
52 51 51
higher investments translating into depreciation charges. 40 38
32 30
Based on these figures, we calculate that at current share prices AIM Italia
market is currently trading at ca. 8.7x EV/EBITDA, 14.0x EV/EBIT and 20.3x
P/E 2020A, higher multiples if compared to one year ago, but also very
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affordable ones if we believe that FY20 should represent the bottom in terms
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are also companies that keep reporting very good economic performance: 175
® Eight companies reported FY20 revenues growth higher than 50% YoY: 142
Confinvest, Culti, Cy4gate, Faramè, Iervolino Ent., Intred, Sciuker 114 112
Frames, Unidata; 81 75
56 56 49
® A dozen names reported EBIT growth rates higher than 30% YoY, out of 42
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Source: Value Track Analysis – Stocks with revenues>€5mn and EBIT>€1mn both in FY19 and
FY20
ValueTrack | www.value-track.com | NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
Executive Summary
AIM Italia “Corporate” FY20 earnings: Stable revenues, much lower profits
In FY20 AIM Italia Corporate (sample of 108 companies) on an aggregated basis recorded:
® Revenues close to €4.1bn, almost flat YoY (-2.1% YoY);
® EBITDA, EBIT, Adjusted Net Profit at €609mn, €204mn and €132mn respectively, down -6%, -
35% and -32% YoY respectively;
® Net Debt / EBITDA stable YoY at 0.7x (1.8x, substantially stable YoY, if we do not consider those
41 companies which are Net Cash positive).
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2
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
Bottom Up view: Six companies with FY20 top line growth rates higher than 50% YoY
Polarization means that out of the total sample is possible to spot some companies that, depite Covid-
19, reported very good financial results.
Indeed, among those companies that boast: i) revenues above €5mn, ii) EBITDA higher than €0.5mn
and, iii) positive Net Profit in FY2019 and FY2020, we found out that:
® Eight companies reported growth rates higher than 50% YoY (Confinvest, Culti, Cy4gate, Farmaè,
Iervolino Ent., Intred, Sciuker Frames, Unidata);
® A dozen names reported EBIT growth rates higher than 30% YoY, out of which we flag Comal,
DHH, Digital360, EdiliziAcrobatica, Gibus, Ilpra;
® Comer Industries stands out in terms of Free Cash Flow and EBITDA cash conversion rate, close
to 64%.
In terms of leverage, as well, there are scattered situations:
® Fine Foods, Leone Film Group, Prismi, Siti B&T, Softec recorded either the highest Net Debt
position in absolute terms or the highest Net Debt / EBITDA ratio;
® On the other side, Rosetti Marino, Digital Value and Expert System are the companies with the
highest Net Cash position as of 2020 year end.
If FY20 figures are rock bottom, AIM Italia market is not expensive
Based on our dataset we calculate that at current share prices AIM Italia market is currently trading at
ca. 8.7x EV/EBITDA, 14.0x EV/EBIT and 20.3x P/E 2020A figure, higher than the multiples we
calculated one year ago (6.8x, 12.2x and 15.8x respectively), but also very affordable levels if we believe
that FY20 should represent the bottom in terms of financials.
As far as stock trading multiples by sector are concerned, we note a wide dispersion of
EV/EBITDA20A multiples, with Industrial & Prof. Services and Consumer Services recording the
highest values (10.4x and 10.0x respectively) and Media recording the lowest one (6.2x);
As far as the “top value” and “top growth” companies that we selected one year ago, we note that:
® On average they recorded very sound FY20 financials;
® “Top value” stocks outperformed both the whole AIM market and “top growth” names;
® “Top value” stocks still offer very good value, trading at much lower multiples than AIM Italia
median, but also “top growth stocks” (e.g. EdiliziAcrobatica, Kolinpharma, Portobello) do not
show higher than average multiples.
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3
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
Source: Value Track Analysis (*) It still includes Antares Vision, who recently moved to MTA (STAR segment)
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
4
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
138 141
128
113
95
74 77
57
36
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 May'21
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1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
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5
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
Technology is the industry with the highest number of IPO deals: 8 in 2020 (and additional
3 new in 2021 year to date) followed by Industrial Goods with 3 deals positively finalized.
AIM Italia: Total number of IPOs (lhs) and proceeds (rhs) by industry
Industrial & Prof. Financials
Aim Italia 2018 2019 2020 2021 (*) Services 2%
Tot. €163mn
Consumer Goods 3%
7%
Energy 1 0 2 1
Technology
Financials 8 1 1 0 32%
Energy
Health Care 1 3 1 0 12%
Technology 2 8 8 3
Media 1 4 1 0
Healthcare
Consumer Goods 4 2 2 0 15%
Consumer Services 2 4 2 0
Media
Industrials Goods 6 8 3 0 1%
Industrials Goods
Consumer Services 27%
Industrial & Prof. Serv. 1 1 1 1 1%
Source: Borsa Italiana, Value Track Analysis, (*) as of April 26, 2021
6.8x EV/EBITDA, 47% IPO discount, positive post IPO performance, on average
As far as valuation in IPO is concerned, we note that 2020 AIM Italia IPO deals recorded:
® 6.8x EV/EBITDA FY1 on average (5.9x median), substantially stable vs. 2019, and with a high
level of dispersion (from 12.6x multiple for TrenDevice to 2.7x for Fabilia Group);
® 47% IPO discount (calculated as the difference between IPO multiple pre-money of the issuer
and its comparables) on average and ranging from 6% for Planetel to 75% for Sourcesense. As
expected, we calculate a negative correlation between IPO discount and company size.
15.8
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2.7
UD SEB GVS CY4 FHR SOU RETI LBM ESI TD OSA EC TCM PMT CML TNX EVS PLT CVG
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
75%
69%
59% 58% 62% 63% 59% 54%
49% 46% 47% 44%
42% 38% 41% 38%
31%
18%
6%
UD SEB GVS CY4 FHR SOU RETI LBM ESI TD OSA EC TCM PMT CML TNX EVS PLT CVG
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
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6
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
OSA
4.5
LBM GVS CY4
Over Subscription (x)
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TNX CVG
3.0
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ESI SOU
TCM
RETI PLT
1.5 EC PMT
EVS
CML
FHR FNX MED
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0.0
-30 0 30 60 90 120
Performance 1-week post IPO (%)
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7
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
Stock performance: only Industrial & Prof. Service upon negative territory
Aim Italia 1-year return is remarkably positive (+37%), albeit underperforming both FTSE
MIB and STAR indices which reported +47% and +57% 1-year return respectively. We underline a
wide difference on 1-year performances across sectors:
® Consumer Services and Consumer Gooods reported the strongest performance (+52% and +48%
respectively), embedding investors expectation on the restart of economic activities;
® Industrial & Professional Services was the only sector to report a negative price return, i.e. -12%.
Looking at shorter time frame, i.e. 1-month / 3-months performances, AIM Italia Index
overperformed STAR and MIB indices:
® At 3-months, AIM Italian Index reports +15% return, remarkably higher than ~5% of STAR and
FTSE MIB returns;
® At 1-month, AIM Italian Index still over performs (+8%) STAR and MIB indices, albeit the
differences on relative performances decrease.
37.4
1Y (%) 56.8
46.8
25.3
YTD (%) 14.0
11.4
15.4
3M (%) 5.2
5.8
3.0
1M (%) 0.9
0.8
Financials 3.5
Energy 11.8
Media 19.0
Technology 41.7
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8
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
Above mentioned results might be biased as most of stocks plunged in early March and thus, 1-year
return would not embed the drawdown that most of stocks (and indices as well) experienced due to
Covid-19 outbreak.
In order to provide a clear picture of current markets conditions with respect to the pre-pandemic
framework, we computed the performances on a wider range, from Dec '19 up to mid-May ‘21
highlighting how AIM index recovered from pandemic impact and today reports +16%,
albeit underperforming STAR index which shows a +28% return.
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120 120
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ITAIM Index ITSTA R Index FTSEMIB Index
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9
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
AIM Italia Corp. FY20: €4.2bn Revenues, €610mn EBITDA, €445mn Net Debt
In order to calculate the aggregate financial results of AIM Italia Corporate, we take into
consideration 108 listed companies, that’s to say all the companies listed on AIM Italia, out of
which we have excluded from our analysis:
® Those companies that had not approved full year figures yet;
® Those companies classified as financial and real estate ones (First Capital, Digital Magics, 4Aim,
Imvest, H-Farm, Assiteca, Copernico SIM, MIT SIM, SCM).
Aggregating 2020FY financial figures for the selected 108 companies, we highlight the following:
® Revenues close to €4.1bn, almost flat YoY (-2% YoY);
® EBITDA and EBIT at €609mn and €204mn respectively, down -6% and -35% YoY respectively;
® EBITDA margin and EBIT margin at 14.8% and 4.9% respectively;
® Adjusted Net Profit at €132mn (€128mn on a reported basis), down from €194mn (€165mn
reported) in 2019FY;
® Aggregate Net Financial Debt stable YoY at €445mn (€696mn if we do not consider those 40
companies which are Net Cash positive);
® Net Debt / EBITDA stable YoY at 0.7x (1.8x, substantially stable YoY, if we do not consider those
41 companies which are Net Cash positive).
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10
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
AIM Italia companies with a Net Debt exposure: FY2019 – F2020 debt metrics
€mn FY2019 FY2020
# of Companies with a Net Debt exposure 67/108 67/108
Net Debt (attributable to Net Debt companies) 724 696
EBITDA (attributable to Net Debt companies) 415 392
# of Companies 7 6 27 13 17 4 25 9
Revenues 161.8 305.4 922.8 346.4 559.5 162.4 1,545.2 114.3
EBITDA Margin 21.5% 14.7% 14.9% 49.9% 8.5% 6.0% 9.5% 12.2%
EBIT 19.7 24.6 60.0 32.0 8.2 6.5 52.1 0.4
EBIT Margin 12.2% 8.1% 6.5% 9.2% 1.5% 4.0% 3.4% 0.4%
Net Profit adj. 10.9 20.8 41.4 24.4 0.7 2.7 41.9 -11.1
Net Financial Position -65.0 -55.6 18.4 -128.1 -63.0 -1.2 -146.1 -4.3
Net debt/ EBITDA FY2020 1.9 1.2 nm 0.7 1.3 0.1 1.0 0.3
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11
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
Sectors ranked by Revenues size FY2020 (€mn) Sectors ranked by Rev. growth FY2020/FY2019 (%, YoY)
37%
1,545
15% 13%
923 7%
3%
560
346 305 -4%
162 162 114 -14%
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Sectors ranked by EBITDA size FY2020 (€mn) Sectors ranked by EBITDA Growth FY2020/FY2019 (€mn)
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NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
12
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
AIM Italia FY2020 Loss-making companies and aggregate data (excl. Financials)
NEGATIVE POSITIVE Total
FY2020
# % €mn # % €mn # % €mn
EBITDA 13 12% -64 95 88% 674 108 100% 609
EBIT 26 24% -113 82 76% 317 108 100% 204
Adj. Net Profit 31 29% -114 77 71% 245 108 100% 132
Net Financial Position 67 62% -696 41 38% 252 108 100% -445
Source: Value Track Analysis
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13
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
Above 20% 26 32 30 37
Between 0%and 20% 31 18 13 15
Negative growth 51 42 34 33
nm (*) -- 16 31 23
Total 108 108 108 108
Source: Value Track Analysis (*) includes Loss making companies in FY2020 as well as companies not listed in FY2019
2019
26% 2019
2020 36% 2020
9% 2009 11% 2009
0% 0%
2010 2010
2011
6% -4% 0%
2011 2012
2018 0% 0%
25% 2012 2013
0% 4%
2013 2014
5%
3% 2018
2014 21% 2015
2016 7%
2017 2015 6% 2017
2016 6%
6% 10% 6%
9%
Source: Borsa Italiana, Value Track Analysis, (*) Negative % implies EBITDA<0
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14
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
Six companies with FY20 top line growth rates higher than 50% YoY
Hereby follows the list of those 15 “growth” companies which enjoyed Turnover and EBITDA YoY
growth rates above 20%, chosen among those that also boast: i) revenues above €5mn, ii) EBITDA
higher than €0.5mn and lastly iii) positive Net Profit in FY2019 and FY2020.
Such panel is extremely diversified, with stocks belonging to Technology (#4), Media (#3) and
Consumer Good (#3) to account for 67% of selected stocks.
Six companies reported growth rates higher than 50%: Sciuker Frames, Unidata, Intred, Cy4gate,
Iervolino Ent. and Confinvest which belong to two sectors largely exposed to Covid-19 implications,
reported a remarkable organic growth, 89% and 51% respectively.
We also spot that Italian Wine Brands benefitted from M&A growth, but we highlight that also in this
case the organic growth remained extremely interesting (+24% YoY).
2020FY: AIM Italia companies with the highest Revenues growth YoY
Growth YoY (%) Revenues (€mn) EBITDA (€mn) Net Profit (€mn)
Company Sector
Revenues EBITDA FY2019 FY2020 FY2019 FY2020 FY2019 FY2020
Sciuker Frames Consumer Goods 88.9% >100% 12.0 22.6 2.6 7.7 0.3 2.0
Unidata Technology 77.4% (*) 67.3% 13.2 23.4 5.2 8.6 1.4 3.4
Intred Technology 70.7% (**) 60.9% 20.8 35.5 8.7 14.0 4.3 6.1
Cy4gate Technology 68.5% >100% 7.4 12.5 3.1 8.6 1.9 5.0
Iervolino
Media 50.9% 49.6% 80.0 120.7 75.4 112.8 20.2 19.5
Entertainment
Confinvest Consumer Services 50.7% 73.0% 27.3 41.1 0.8 1.4 0.6 0.8
Blue Fin. Comm. Media 40.0% 17.8% 7.8 11.0 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.3
Portobello Media 38.3% 31.8% 45.3 62.7 8.2 10.9 4.8 6.0
Finlogic Industrials Goods 31.5% 40.4% 33.0 43.4 4.7 6.6 2.2 2.8
Italian Wine Brands Consumer Goods 29.7% 41.6% 157.5 204.3 18.1 25.6 9.2 15.6
Labomar Health Care 26.3% 24.5% 48.3 61.1 9.1 11.3 4.1 6.1
Sebino Industrials Goods 23.3% 97.9% 39.7 48.9 5.7 11.3 3.3 7.5
Renergetica Energy 22.7% 13.0% 9.4 11.5 4.2 4.7 1.7 2.2
Euro Cosmetic Consumer Goods 22.6% 74.9% 22.6 27.8 2.8 4.9 1.0 2.5
Digital Value Technology 21.3% 42.0% 363.2 440.6 32.0 45.4 19.1 24.1
Source: Value Track Analysis; (*) Inflated by changes in accounting principles, +36% like-for-like basis, (**) Of which 16% revenues organic growth.
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15
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
A further useful analysis is to look for those firms able to deliver material EBIT growth,
despite a less buoyant top line evolution, again chosen among those boasting: 1) Revenues 2020 above
€5mn and reported EBIT greater than €1mn both in 2019 and 2020.
Seven companies reported EBIT growth rates higher than 30% YoY: Digital360, Gibus, Ilpra, DHH,
Comal and EdiliziAcrobatica.
2020FY: AIM Italia companies with the highest EBIT growth YoY
Growth YoY (%) Revenues (€mn) EBIT (€mn) EBIT Margin (%)
Company Sector
Revenues EBIT FY2019 FY2020 FY2019 FY2020 FY2019 FY2020
Digital360 Technology 4.4% >100.0% 25.2 26.3 1.2 3.3 4.8% 12.5%
Gibus Consumer Goods 10.2% 80.6% 40.9 45.1 3.9 7.1 9.6% 15.7%
Ilpra Industrials Goods 1.3% 55.6% 32.0 32.4 2.7 4.2 8.4% 13.0%
DHH Technology 7.8% 48.9% 16.6 17.9 2.5 3.8 15.3% 21.1%
Comal Energy 7.2% 41.0% 28.9 31.0 1.8 2.5 6.1% 8.1%
Edilizia Acrobatica Consumer Services 10.7% 35.6% 41.7 46.2 2.3 3.1 5.6% 6.8%
ELES Industrials Goods 3.4% 31.1% 17.5 18.1 1.2 1.6 6.8% 8.6%
Doxee Technology 14.3% 29.9% 15.5 17.7 2.3 2.9 14.7% 16.6%
Fine Foods Health Care 7.7% 17.0% 159.7 172.0 8.1 9.5 5.1% 5.5%
Reti Technology 3.9% 16.8% 21.0 21.8 1.2 1.4 5.6% 6.3%
Shedir Pharma Group Health Care -14.3% 13.3% 50.2 43.0 5.3 6.0 10.5% 13.9%
FOS Group Technology 11.4% 13.1% 9.7 10.8 1.2 1.4 12.4% 12.6%
Comer Industries Industrials Goods -2.1% 9.4% 404.6 396.2 27.8 30.4 6.9% 7.7%
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16
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
2020FY: AIM Italia companies with highest and lowest FCF generation
Stocks with highest FCF (FY2020, €mn) Stocks with lowest FCF (FY2020, €mn)
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65
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NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
17
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
Valuation analysis
AIM Italia market is currently trading at ca. 8.7x EV/EBITDA, 14.0x EV/EBIT and 20.3x P/E 2020A
figure, higher than the multiples we calculated one year ago (6.8x, 12.2x and 15.8x respectively)
thanks to rebounding stock prices.
As far as the “top value” stocks and “top growth” ones that we selected one year ago, we note that: 1)
on average they recorded very sound FY20 financials, 2) “top value” names outperformed both the
whole AIM market and “top growth” names, 3) “top value” stocks still offer very good value, trading
at much lower multiples than AIM Italia median, but also “top growth stocks” do not show higher
than average multiples.
Top-down view. AIM Italia stock market trading at 8.7x EV/EBITDA, 20.3x P/E
Based on our dataset of #108 companies that have already released FY2020 results and not belonging
to financial sector, we calculate that AIM Italia Stock Market is currently trading at ca. 8.7x
EV/EBITDA and 20.3x P/E median values on 2020A financial figures.
These are higher multiples if compared to our latest updates, as consequence of rebounding stock
prices which now embed positive news flow from vaccination campaign and account from a certain
level of optimism about the economic recovery and report strong positive performances.
Source: Value Track analysis (*) Based on FY2020 companies' financials and on current market prices
As far as stock trading multiples by sector are concerned, we note a wide dispersion of EV/EBITDA
multiples. Indeed:
® Industrial & Prof. Services is trading at 10.4x EV/EBITDA, well above May ’20 values and
despite reporting among the worst performances according to the median on EBITDA growth rate;
® Consumer Services, by far the highest EBITDA growth sector, is trading at 10.0x
EV/EBITDA, not materially different from 2019A multiple;
® Media sector is trading at lowest multiple, 6.2x EV/EBITDA, despite the latter multiple may be
misleading, since it is affected by the content providers’ accounting, whose production costs are
capitalized (IPs) and amortized, rather than expensed.
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
18
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
Valuation Value maps – EV/EBITDA vs. EBITDA Growth in May ‘20 and May ‘21
as of May ’20 as of May ’21
15.0 15.0
0.0 0.0
-5 2 9 16 23 30 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
EBITDA Growth 2019A (%) EBITDA Growth 2020A (%)
A similar pattern arises also if we look at the sector EV/Sales vs Sales Growth value maps. While some
sectors suffered more from pandemic consequence and reported negative sales growth, all of them are
currently trading at higher multiples vs May ’2o levels.
Covid-19 crisis weakened the positive correlation we found in May in EV/Sales vs. Efficiency
Ratio (i.e. the sum of Sales Growth rate plus EBITDA Margin) and now spots Consumer Services as
one of the sectors with the lowest valuation coupled with an extremely negative efficiency ratio.
Valuation Value maps – EV/Sales vs. Sales Growth in May ‘20 and May ‘21
as of May ’20 as of May ’21
2.5 2.5
Energy
Energy
2.0 2.0
EV/Sales 2019A (x)
Health Care
Media Technology
1.5 Health Care Technology 1.5
Industrial & Prof.
Media Industrial & Prof. Services
1.0 Services 1.0 Consumer Consumer
Consumer Industrials Consumer Services
Industrials Goods
Goods Goods Services (*)
Goods
0.5 0.5
0 5 10 15 20 25 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
Sales Growth 2019A (%) YoY Sales Growth 2020A (%)
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
19
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
…on average outperformed AIM Italia market, but still offer good value
Looking at FY2020 results and at one-year stocks performances of the “top value” companies chosen
one year ago (15 companies, as three have moved to MTA), we note that:
® Business resiliency has been proven, with few exceptions. Indeed, six out of these
companies reported a double-digit growth at top line level while only two (Fope and Innovatec)
recorded revenues down by more than 20% YoY. All these companies achieved positive a positive
EBIT margin vs 26/108 AIM Italia listed companies which reported negative EBIT 2020A;
® Six companies reported very strong set of financials. Iervolino Ent., Portobello and
Italian Wine Brands recorded very high revenues growth rates (+51%, +38% and +30% YoY),
while Gibus, Gismondi and Digital Value reported +81%, +127% and +56% EBIT growth YoY;
® Nealy half of these stocks outperformed AIM Italia market, with only two stocks
(Iervolino Ent. and Innovatec) being down YoY.
Iervolino Entertainment 120.7 112.8 22.0 51 50 -3 1.0 1.2 6.4 6.9 131 -0.5
Portobello 62.7 10.9 8.6 38 32 26 1.2 5.5 6.2 0.8 93 255.2
Italian Wine Brands 204.3 25.6 18.2 30 42 56 1.0 8.4 10.9 16.3 228 127.1
Digital Value 440.6 45.4 34.0 21 42 26 0.8 7.8 10.5 17.7 490 182.8
Gismondi 6.5 0.7 1.4 12 -19 127 1.3 8.1 10.6 16.8 12 17.5
Gibus 45.1 8.5 7.1 10 51 81 1.4 8.7 11.3 13.8 68 159.0
AMM Group 13.6 1.9 0.5 5 -11 -69 0.7 4.3 7.5 15.7 16 40.5
Comer Industries 396.2 50.1 30.4 -2 11 9 0.8 6.2 9.4 14.7 367 70.3
Esautomation 17.7 3.6 1.9 -5 5 3 1.5 6.6 9.8 17.2 43 84.2
Poligrafici Printing 23.9 5.0 2.4 -8 -18 -35 - - - - 15 2.1
Fervi 26.3 4.1 3.0 -9 -11 -16 0.9 6.0 7.4 12.0 31 18.4
Digitouch 31.3 5.4 1.0 -13 0 -40 0.4 2.7 10.0 22.4 18 19.1
TPS 31.0 5.3 2.5 -16 -25 -38 0.8 4.2 6.3 11.6 35 27.1
Fope 26.0 3.9 2.3 -26 -42 -57 1.5 8.8 12.9 18.8 46 20.0
Source: Bloomberg, Value Track Analysis. (*) it refers to the FTSE AIM Italia Index
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
20
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
® Most of these “top value” stocks still trade at multiples below AIM Italia market’s
one, thus meaning that, on average, share prices only partially embed 2021E financial
performances.
2.0 2.0
IWB IWB
COM
1.0 POR 1.0
TPS FVI DGV TPS IE >100
DGV IE
FVI
COM
AMM
0.5 AMM DGT 0.5
DGT
0.0 0.0
0 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 50
Sales Growth 2021E (%) Sales Growth + EBITDA Margin 2021E (%)
10.0 10.0
IWB FPE IWB FPE
GIS
DGV
GBUS
EV/EBITDA 2021E (x)
7.5 7.5
EV/EBITDA 2021E (x)
0.0 0.0
0 15 30 45 60 75 5 10 15 20 25 30
EBITDA Growth 2021E (%)
EBITDA Margin 2021E (%)
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
21
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
…on average outperformed AIM Italia market, but still offer good value
Looking at FY2020 results and at one-year stocks performances of the “top growth” companies chosen
one year ago (15 companies, as three have moved to MTA), we note that:
® “Top Growth” stocks confirmed their potential, with 10/19 companies reporting YoY
turnover growth >20% and only TPS suffering from revenues decrease by more than 10%;
® Growth is only partially due to M&A – only in four cases among selected companies
(Neosperience, Culti Milano, Finlogic and Intred) top line growth was mostly or fully due to the
contribution of newly acquired companies;
® Margins are improving – most of the selected companies outperformed AIM Italia market
also in terms of profitability, recording EBITDA and EBIT expansion higher than top line growth;
® Share prices do not totally reflect the stocks expected growth yet: albeit most of
selected stock prices reported a positive performance, we note few names which still trade at
lower than market’s average multiples.
Among these, we highlight Portobello, Kolinpharma and Ediliza Acrobatica which consistently
trade at cheaper multiples, albeit among those with the highest expected top line growth.
AIM Italia – VT “growth” stocks’ key FY2020 Financials and 2021E multiples
FY2020 (€mn) FY2020 YoY Growth (%) EV /
EV / Sales EV / EBIT P/E Adj.
Company EBITDA Mkt Cap (€mn) 1Y Perf. (%)
’21E (x) ’21E (x) ’21E (x)
Rev EBITDA EBIT Rev EBITDA EBIT ’21E (x)
Iervolino Entertainment 120.7 112.8 22.0 51 50 -3 1.0 1.2 6.4 6.9 131.2 -0.5
Confinvest 41.1 1.4 1.2 51 73 62 - - - - 28.6 -7.8
Neosperience 16.4 4.8 0.8 18 33 -28 2.1 8.9 40.7 99.4 42.6 -9.9
Culti Milano 13.4 3.2 nm 52 146 nm 0.8 3.6 10.3 21.6 18.1 84.7
Finlogic 43.4 6.6 3.9 32 40 22 1.0 6.5 10.5 16.4 44.4 -4.6
Digital Value 440.6 45.4 34.0 21 42 26 0.8 7.8 10.5 17.7 490.4 182.8
Portobello 62.7 10.9 8.6 38 32 26 1.2 5.5 6.2 0.8 92.6 255.2
Renergetica 11.5 4.7 3.6 23 13 21 2.7 5.7 6.4 6.9 31.2 7.9
Intred 35.5 14.0 8.1 71 61 42 5.7 14.1 22.5 29.1 226.7 75.6
Growens 65.2 5.1 1.4 7 6 -25 0.8 11.3 40.1 63.2 63.2 -10.5
Cyberoo 7.6 2.5 1.1 13.4 -23.3 -84 3.9 12.8 51.3 55.3 55.3 46.8
Relatech 18.3 5.9 4.1 2 20 -4 2.8 10.9 15.0 27.2 89.8 50.6
Edilizia Acrobatica 46.2 5.0 3.1 11 19 36 1.0 8.6 11.6 17.6 52.8 27.8
TPS 31.0 5.3 2.5 -16 -25 -38 0.8 4.2 6.3 11.6 34.7 27.1
Officina Stellare 5.7 1.6 0.2 50 -46 -87 5.8 20.3 43.4 51.9 57.1 31.0
Fine Foods 172.0 21.1 9.5 8 20 17 1.7 12.0 22.4 25.8 309.7 22.4
Fervi 26.3 4.1 3.0 -9 -11 -16 0.9 6.0 7.4 12.0 31.0 18.4
Kolinpharma 8.2 1.9 1.0 -8 -5 15 1.3 6.0 12.4 19.4 13.6 -8.5
AMM Group 13.6 1.9 0.459 5.1 -11.4 -68.7 0.7 4.3 7.5 15.7 15.8 40.5
Source: Bloomberg, Value Track Analysis. Stock prices as of 05/10/20 (*) it refers to the FTSE AIM Italia Index
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
22
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
3.0 3.0
RLT RLT
REN REN
2.5 2.5
NSP
2.0 2.0
FF FF
1.5 1.5
POR POR
KIP KIP
1.0 FVI IE 1.0 FVI
TPS DGV IE>100
DGV TPS
EDAC EDAC
MAIL
0.5
AMM CULT AMM CULT
0.5
0.0 0.0
5 15 25 35 45 20 30 40 50 60 70
Sales Growth 2021E (%) Sales Growth + EBITDA Margin 2021E (%)
2.0 IE 2.0
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
23
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| 19 May 2021
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NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
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-31.7
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24
VALUETRACK
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
Top in meaningful Revenues growth FY2020/2019 (*) Bottom in Revenues growth FY2020/2019
89 0
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NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
25
AIM Italia | Thematic Report | 19 May 2021 | Research Team
VALUETRACK
Top 10 for meaningful % EBITDA margin FY2020 (*) Bottom 10 for meaningful % EBITDA margin FY2020 (*)
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NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
26
VALUETRACK
DISCLAIMER
THIS DOCUMENT IS PREPARED BY VALUE TRACK S.R.L. THIS DOCUMENT IS BEING FURNISHED TO YOU SOLELY FOR YOUR
INFORMATION ON A CONFIDENTIAL BASIS AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED, REDISTRIBUTED OR PASSED ON, IN WHOLE OR IN PART,
TO ANY OTHER PERSON. IN PARTICULAR, NEITHER THIS DOCUMENT NOR ANY COPY THEREOF MAY BE TAKEN OR TRANSMITTED OR
DISTRIBUTED, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, INTO CANADA OR JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA TO ANY RESIDENT THEREOF OR INTO THE
UNITED STATES, ITS TERRITORIES OR POSSESSIONS. THE DISTRIBUTION OF THIS DOCUMENT IN OTHER JURISDICTIONS MAY BE
RESTRICTED BY LAW AND PERSONS INTO WHOSE POSSESSION THIS DOCUMENT COMES SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT,
AND OBSERVE, ANY SUCH RESTRICTION. ANY FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH THESE RESTRICTIONS MAY CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF
THE LAWS OF ANY SUCH OTHER JURISDICTION. THIS DOCUMENT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE OR FORM PART OF, AND SHOULD NOT BE
CONSTRUED AS, AN OFFER, INVITATION OR INDUCEMENT TO SUBSCRIBE FOR OR PURCHASE ANY SECURITIES, AND NEITHER THIS
DOCUMENT NOR ANYTHING CONTAINED HEREIN SHALL FORM THE BASIS OF OR BE RELIED ON IN CONNECTION WITH OR ACT AS
AN INVITATION OR INDUCEMENT TO ENTER INTO ANY CONTRACT OR COMMITMENT WHATSOEVER. THIS DOCUMENT HAS NOT
BEEN PUBLISHED GENERALLY AND HAS ONLY BEEN MADE AVAILABLE TO INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS. IN MAKING AN INVESTMENT
DECISION, POTENTIAL INVESTORS MUST RELY ON THEIR OWN EXAMINATION OF THE COMPANY AND ITS GROUP INCLUDING THE
MERITS AND RISKS INVOLVED. THIS DOCUMENT IS FOR DISTRIBUTION IN OR FROM THE UNITED KINGDOM ONLY TO PERSONS
WHO: (I) HAVE PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE IN MATTERS RELATING TO INVESTMENTS FALLING WITHIN ARTICLE 19(5) OF THE
FINANCIAL SERVICES AND MARKETS ACT 2000 (FINANCIAL PROMOTION) ORDER 2005 (AS AMENDED, THE “FINANCIAL
PROMOTION ORDER”), (II) ARE PERSONS FALLING WITHIN ARTICLE 49(2)(A) TO (D) (“HIGH NET WORTH COMPANIES,
UNINCORPORATED ASSOCIATIONS ETC.”) OF THE FINANCIAL PROMOTION ORDER, (III) ARE OUTSIDE THE UNITED KINGDOM, OR
(IV) ARE PERSONS TO WHOM AN INVITATION OR INDUCEMENT TO ENGAGE IN INVESTMENT ACTIVITY (WITHIN THE MEANING OF
SECTION 21 OF THE FINANCIAL SERVICES AND MARKETS ACT 2000) IN CONNECTION WITH THE ISSUE OR SALE OF ANY SECURITIES
MAY OTHERWISE LAWFULLY BE COMMUNICATED OR CAUSED TO BE COMMUNICATED (ALL SUCH PERSONS TOGETHER BEING
REFERRED TO AS “RELEVANT PERSONS”). THIS DOCUMENT IS DIRECTED ONLY AT RELEVANT PERSONS AND MUST NOT BE ACTED
ON OR RELIED ON BY PERSONS WHO ARE NOT RELEVANT PERSONS. ANY INVESTMENT OR INVESTMENT ACTIVITY TO WHICH THIS
DOCUMENT RELATES IS AVAILABLE ONLY TO RELEVANT PERSONS AND WILL BE ENGAGED IN ONLY WITH RELEVANT PERSONS. IN
ITALY THIS DOCUMENT IS BEING DISTRIBUTED ONLY TO, AND IS DIRECTED AT QUALIFIED INVESTORS WITHIN THE MEANING OF
ARTICLE 100 OF LEGISLATIVE DECREE NO. 58 OF 24 FEBRUARY 1998, AS AMENDED, AND ARTICLE 34-TER, PARAGRAPH 1, LETTER B),
OF CONSOB REGULATION ON ISSUERS NO. 11971 OF MAY 14, 1999, AS SUBSEQUENTLY AMENDED (THE “ISSUERS’ REGULATION”)
PROVIDED THAT SUCH QUALIFIED INVESTORS WILL ACT IN THEIR CAPACITY AND NOT AS DEPOSITARIES OR NOMINEES FOR OTHER
SHAREHOLDERS, SUCH AS PERSONS AUTHORISED AND REGULATED TO OPERATE IN FINANCIAL MARKETS, BOTH ITALIAN AND
FOREIGN, I.E.: A) BANKS; B) INVESTMENT FIRMS; C) OTHER AUTHORISED AND REGULATED FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS; D)
INSURANCE COMPANIES; E) COLLECTIVE INVESTMENT UNDERTAKINGS AND MANAGEMENT COMPANIES FOR SUCH
UNDERTAKINGS; F) PENSION FUNDS AND MANAGEMENT COMPANIES FOR SUCH FUNDS; G) DEALERS ACTING ON THEIR OWN
ACCOUNT ON COMMODITIES AND COMMODITY-BASED DERIVATIVES; H) PERSONS DEALING EXCLUSIVELY ON THEIR OWN ACCOUNT
ON FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS MARKETS WITH INDIRECT MEMBERSHIP OF CLEARING AND SETTLEMENT SERVICES AND THE LOCAL
COMPENSATORY AND GUARANTEE SYSTEM; I) OTHER INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS; L) STOCKBROKERS; (2) LARGE COMPANIES
WHICH AT INDIVIDUAL COMPANY LEVEL MEET AT LEAST TWO OF THE FOLLOWING REQUIREMENTS: — BALANCE SHEET TOTAL:
20,000,000 EURO, — NET REVENUES: 40,000,000 EURO, — OWN FUNDS: 2,000,000 EURO; (3) INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS WHOSE
MAIN ACTIVITY IS INVESTMENT IN FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS, INCLUDING COMPANIES DEDICATED TO THE SECURITISATION OF
ASSETS AND OTHER FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS (ALL SUCH PERSONS TOGETHER BEING REFERRED TO AS “RELEVANT PERSONS”).
ANY PERSON WHO IS NOT A RELEVANT PERSON SHOULD NOT ACT OR RELY ON THIS DOCUMENT OR ANY OF ITS CONTENTS. THIS
DOCUMENT IS NOT ADDRESSED TO ANY MEMBER OF THE GENERAL PUBLIC IN ITALY. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES SHOULD THIS
DOCUMENT CIRCULATE AMONG, OR BE DISTRIBUTED IN ITALY TO (I) A MEMBER OF THE GENERAL PUBLIC, (II) INDIVIDUALS OR
ENTITIES FALLING OUTSIDE THE DEFINITION OF “QUALIFIED INVESTORS” AS SPECIFIED ABOVE OR (III) DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS
THROUGH WHICH INFORMATION IS OR IS LIKELY TO BECOME AVAILABLE TO A LARGE NUMBER OF PERSONS. THIS DOCUMENT IS
BEING DISTRIBUTED TO AND IS DIRECTED ONLY AT PERSONS IN MEMBER STATES OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AREA (“EEA”)
WHO ARE “QUALIFIED INVESTORS” WITHIN THE MEANING OF ARTICLE 2(1)(E) OF THE PROSPECTUS DIRECTIVE (DIRECTIVE
2003/71/EC), (“QUALIFIED INVESTORS”). ANY PERSON IN THE EEA WHO RECEIVES THIS DOCUMENT WILL BE DEEMED TO HAVE
REPRESENTED AND AGREED THAT IT IS A QUALIFIED INVESTOR. ANY SUCH RECIPIENT WILL ALSO BE DEEMED TO HAVE
REPRESENTED AND AGREED THAT IT HAS NOT RECEIVED THIS DOCUMENT ON BEHALF OF PERSONS IN THE EEA OTHER THAN
QUALIFIED INVESTORS OR PERSONS IN THE UK, ITALY AND OTHER MEMBER STATES (WHERE EQUIVALENT LEGISLATION EXISTS)
FOR WHOM THE INVESTOR HAS AUTHORITY TO MAKE DECISIONS ON A WHOLLY DISCRETIONARY BASIS. THE COMPANY, VALUE
TRACK S.R.L. AND THEIR AFFILIATES, AND OTHERS WILL RELY UPON THE TRUTH AND ACCURACY OF THE FOREGOING
REPRESENTATIONS AND AGREEMENTS. ANY PERSON IN THE EEA WHO IS NOT A QUALIFIED INVESTOR SHOULD NOT ACT OR RELY
ON THIS DOCUMENT OR ANY OF ITS CONTENTS. THE EXPRESSION “PROSPECTUS DIRECTIVE” MEANS DIRECTIVE 2003/71/EC (AND
AMENDMENTS THERETO, INCLUDING THE 2010 PD AMENDING DIRECTIVE, TO THE EXTENT IMPLEMENTED IN THE RELEVANT
MEMBER STATE), AND INCLUDES ANY RELEVANT IMPLEMENTING MEASURE IN THE RELEVANT MEMBER STATE AND THE
EXPRESSION “2010 PD AMENDING DIRECTIVE” MEANS DIRECTIVE 2010/73/EU. ANY FORECASTS, OPINIONS AND EXPECTATIONS
CONTAINED HEREIN ARE ENTIRELY THOSE OF VALUE TRACK S.R.L. AND ARE GIVEN AS PART OF ITS NORMAL RESEARCH ACTIVITY
AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS HAVING BEEN AUTHORISED OR APPROVED BY ANY OTHER PERSON. VALUE TRACK S.R.L. HAS
NO AUTHORITY WHATSOEVER TO MAKE ANY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY ON BEHALF OF THE COMPANY, ITS SHAREHOLDERS,
ANY OF ITS ADVISORS, OR ANY OTHER PERSON IN CONNECTION THEREWITH. WHILE ALL REASONABLE CARE HAS BEEN TAKEN TO
ENSURE THAT THE FACTS STATED HEREIN ARE ACCURATE AND THAT THE FORECASTS, OPINIONS AND EXPECTATIONS CONTAINED
HEREIN ARE FAIR AND REASONABLE, VALUE TRACK S.R.L. HAS NOT VERIFIED THE CONTENTS HEREOF AND ACCORDINGLY NONE OF
VALUE TRACK S.R.L., THE COMPANY, ITS SHAREHOLDERS, ANY ADVISORS TO THE COMPANY OR ITS SHAREHOLDERS OR ANY OTHER
PERSON IN CONNECTION THEREWITH NOR ANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE DIRECTORS, OFFICERS OR EMPLOYEES, SHALL BE IN ANY
WAY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONTENTS HEREOF AND NO RELIANCE SHOULD BE PLACED ON THE ACCURACY, FAIRNESS, OR
COMPLETENESS OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT. NO PERSON ACCEPTS ANY LIABILITY WHATSOEVER FOR
ANY LOSS HOWSOEVER ARISING FROM THE USE OF THIS DOCUMENT OR OF ITS CONTENTS OR OTHERWISE ARISING IN
CONNECTION THEREWITH. TO THE EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW AND BY REGULATIONS, VALUE TRACK S.R.L. (OR ITS OFFICERS,
DIRECTORS OR EMPLOYEES) MAY HAVE A POSITION IN THE SECURITIES OF (OR OPTIONS, WARRANTS OR RIGHTS WITH RESPECT TO,
OR INTEREST IN THE SHARES OR OTHER SECURITIES OF) THE COMPANY AND MAY MAKE A MARKET OR ACT AS A PRINCIPAL IN ANY
TRANSACTIONS IN SUCH SECURITIES.
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