I n d o n e s i a D a i l y Tuesday, 05 October 2021

PLEASE CLICK ON THE PAGE NUMBER TO MOVE TO THE RELEVANT PAGE. REGIONAL MARKET
Market Close +/- Chg (%)
KEY HIGHLIGHTS MSCI Indonesia 6,418.7 171.7 2.7
MSCI Asia-Ex Japan 788.6 (6.5) (0.8)
KLCI 1,522.5 (2.0) (0.1)
Update FSSTI 3,089.7 38.5 1.2
SET 1,614.5 9.3 0.6
Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ/BUY/Rp585/Target: Rp780) Page 2 Hang Seng 24,036.4 (539.3) (2.2)
Mobile handset sales volume to recover in 4Q21. Nikkei 28,444.9 (326.2) (1.1)
Shanghai Comp 3,568.2 - -
Dow Jones 34,002.9 (323.5) (1.0)
TRADERS’ CORNER Page 5
Source: Bloomberg
Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ): Technical BUY
INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE
Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ): Technical BUY Level +/- Chg (%)
Index 6,342.7 113.8 1.8
LQ-45 911.0 25.0 2.8
Value (US$m) 1,191.8 (1,005.6) (45.8)

FOREIGN TRADE IN IDX

Net (US$m) Buy Sell Total (%)
139.7 348.6 208.9 23.4

TOP VOLUME
Company Price Chg Volume
(Rp) (%) ('000)
Smartfren Telecom 105 (1.9) 1,334,381
Perusahaan Gas Negara 1,405 9.8 442,993
Metro Healthcare 440 1.9 390,007
Bank Rakyat Indonesia 3,970 1.8 335,763
Adaro Energy 1,860 4.5 235,059

TOP GAINERS
Company Price Chg Volume
(Rp) (%) ('000)
Indo Tambangraya 24,575 16.1 14,177
Merdeka Copper 2,810 14.2 107,870
Summarecon Agung 920 11.5 144,580
Bumi Serpong Damai 1,110 10.4 115,977
Perusahaan Gas Negara 1,405 9.8 442,993

TOP LOSERS
Company Price Chg Volume
(Rp) (%) ('000)
Multistrada 5,625 (6.6) 61
Harum Energy 8,325 (4.6) 11,692
Elang Mahkota 1,625 (3.8) 70,350
Bank Jago 14,500 (3.8) 13,945
Bank Ina Perdana 3,470 (3.3) 1,414

COMMODITY TREND
4 Oct 21 Chg (%)
Closing 1-day 1-mth
Forex (Rp/US$) 14,267 (0.3) 0.0
Crude Oil NYMEX (US$/bbl) 77.62 2.3 12.0
Coal Fut Newc (US$/tonne) 240.00 5.3 n.a.
Nickel 3M LME 17,924 (0.3) (9.4)
Tin 3M LME 34,450 1.8 4.2
Gold SPOT (US$/oz) 1,749 (0.7) (4.3)
CPO Fut Msia (MYR/tonne) 4,838 1.8 6.3
Source: Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian

Refer to last page for important disclosures. 1

I n d o n e s i a D a i l y Tuesday, 05 October 2021

COMPANY UPDATE BUY

Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) (Maintained)
Mobile Handset Sales Volume To Recover In 4Q21 Share Price Rp585
Target Price Rp780
With the relaxation of the semi-lockdown and the government recently allowing children
under 12 to enter shopping malls, we expect ERAA to record better sales volume in Upside +33.3%
4Q21. The number of smartphone users in Indonesia is expected to grow 8.4% yoy in
2021. We do not expect the rumoured acquisition of ERAA by Bli-Bli to happen in the
near term. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp780 as ERAA is trading below the COMPANY DESCRIPTION
historical 5-year average PE. Erajaya Swasembada mainly distributes and
retails cell-phones, is licensed to distribute
WHAT’S NEW international brands and operates a chain of
retail shops in Indonesia.
 Mobile handset volume to recover in 4Q21. We expect Erajaya Swasembada’s (ERAA)
mobile handset sales volume to recover in 4Q21. During the semi-lockdown in Jul 21, STOCK DATA
ERAA was able to maintain its revenue at 80% of the normal levels, which was better than GICS sector Information Technology
the 59% registered during the first semi-lockdown in Apr 20. Since mid-Aug 21, the Bloomberg ticker: ERAA IJ
government has relaxed the semi-lockdown policies, allowing malls to be reopened.
Shares issued (m): 15,950.0
Starting from the fourth week of Sep 21, children under 12 will be allowed to enter malls,
Market cap (Rpb): 9,330.8
which should support mall traffic. According to the Google Mobility Index, as of 25 Sep 21,
the retail and recreation index was at -2.4 (the average of 1-25 Sep 21) and is better than Market cap (US$m): 654.0
before the semi-lockdown index of -4.1 (the average from 1-30 Jun 21). 3-mth avg daily t'over (US$m): 3.9

 Statista expects the number of smartphone users in Indonesia to grow 8.4% yoy in
Price Performance (%)
2021 to 199.2m. On the other hand, smartphone penetration in Indonesia is also 52-week high/low Rp720/Rp306
expected to grow by 7.3% yoy in 2021 to 72.1%. We still expect ERAA’s mobile handset
1mth 3mth 6mth 1yr YTD
volume to grow by 9.2% yoy for 2021 to 11.16m units due to the low-base effect in 2020,
(0.8) (10.7) 15.8 97.6 33.0
and 5.7% yoy for 2022 to 11.8m units.
Major Shareholders %
 Rumours of Bli-bli acquiring ERAA… Bli-Bli (an e-commerce company in Indonesia Eralink International 54.5
with the fifth-highest traffic, backed by Djarum Group) is rumoured to be acquiring ERAA,
FY21 NAV/Share (Rp) 386
with ERAA’s ultimate shareholder (which owns 54.5% of shares outstanding) supposedly
FY21 Net Debt/Share (Rp) 111
asking for a 14x PE valuation, which translates into Rp850/share using our 2021 earnings
forecast or market capitalisation of Rp13.5t (~US$948m). Previously, Bli-Bli announced
the acquisition plan of 51% of outstanding shares of Ranch Market (RANC IJ), a premium PRICE CHART
supermarket chain. (lcy)
ER AJA YA SWA SEMB AD A TB K PT
(%)
ER AJA YA SWA SEMB AD A TB K PT/JCI IN DEX
800
 …should not come true in the near term. If the acquisition happens, this could benefit 250

investors as it could unlock value for ERAA’s shareholders. However, there could be 700
220

limited expansion of ERAA’s online sales as Bli-Bli is only ranked fifth in Indonesia in 600
190
terms of e-commerce traffic. On the other hand, ERAA is not aware of the acquisition, and 500 160
the acquisition cost to acquire 54.5% of ERAA’s outstanding share (assumed at 14x PE 400 130
based on the rumour) would be at >3.5x of RANC’s acquisition cost, and this might force
300
Djarum to inject more capital into Bli-Bli. Overall, we see a low chance of the acquisition 100

happening in the near term. 200

1000
70

Volume (m)
KEY FINANCIALS 500

Year to 31 Dec (Rpb) 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F

0
Net turnover 32,945 34,113 43,031 49,480 58,528 Oct 20 Dec 20 Feb 21 Apr 21 Jun 21 Aug 21 Oct 21
EBITDA 903 1,219 1,812 2,198 2,626
Operating profit 777 1,103 1,666 2,021 2,411 Source: Bloomberg
Net profit (rep./act.) 295 612 974 1,241 1,539
Net profit (adj.) 295 612 974 1,241 1,539 ANALYST(S)
EPS (Rp) 18.5 38.4 61.1 77.8 96.5
Benyamin Mikael
PE (x) 31.6 15.2 9.6 7.5 6.1
P/B (x) 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 +6221 2993 3917
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.7 9.4 6.3 5.2 4.4 benyaminmikael@uobkayhian.com
Dividend yield (%) 1.7 0.0 2.4 3.1 4.0
Net margin (%) 0.9 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.6
Net debt/(cash) to equity (%) 44.2 (2.3) 28.6 (3.8) 25.6
Interest cover (x) 2.8 6.6 7.0 8.6 9.1
ROE (%) 6.2 12.0 16.8 18.7 20.0
Consensus net profit - - 1,042 1,204 1,349
UOBKH/Consensus (x) - - 0.94 1.03 1.14
Source: Erajaya Swasembada, Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian

Refer to last page for important disclosures. 2

I n d o n e s i a D a i l y Tuesday, 05 October 2021

ESSENTIALS TOP 6 SMARTPHONE VENDOR MARKET SHARE (%)

JUL 20 – JUL 21
 Launch of iPhone 13 might become a short-term catalyst. The iPhone 13 was officially
released on 24 Sep 21, with a line-up of: iPhone 13 mini (US$699+), the iPhone 13
(US$799+), the iPhone 13 Pro (US$999+) and the iPhone 13 Pro Max (US$1,099+). The
iPhone 12 was available for purchase in Indonesia in mid-Dec 20. We expect the iPhone
13 to be released in Indonesia at a similar time to last year.
GOOGLE MOBILITY INDEX RETAIL

Source: Statcounter

MOBILE HANDSET VOLUME GROWTH IN 1H21

Source: Google, UOB Kay Hian

NUMBER OF SMARTPHONE USERS IN INDONESIA

Source: ERAA, UOB Kay Hian

MOBILE HANDSET ASP GROWTH IN 1H21 (RP)

Source: Statista, UOB Kay Hian

SMARTPHONE USER PENETRATION IN INDONESIA

Source: ERAA, UOB Kay Hian

CASH CONVERSION CYCLE

Mar 20 Mar 21 Jun'20 Jun'21
Inventory Day 48 39 48 38
Receivable day 11 8 12 7
Payable Day 17 18 22 16
CCC 42 29 37 30
Source: ERAA, UOB Kay Hian

3-YEAR PE VALUATION (BEST 12-MONTH

Source: Statista, UOB Kay Hian FORWARD)

EARNINGS REVISION/RISK
 None.

 Risks. Lower-than-expected demand, longer cash conversion cycle days, margin

pressure, increase in the number of COVID-19 cases which will force stores to close.
VALUATION/ RECOMMENDATION
 Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp780, based our 12.8x of 2021F PE or +1SD of its
three-year mean PE. We are comfortable with assigning +1SD in valuing ERAA because
Source: Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian
of its high earnings growth potential.

Refer to last page for important disclosures. 3

I n d o n e s i a D a i l y Tuesday, 05 October 2021

PROFIT & LOSS BALANCE SHEET

Year to 31 Dec (Rpb) 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Year to 31 Dec (Rpb) 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
Net turnover 34,113 43,031 49,480 58,528 Fixed assets 716 841 984 1,138
EBITDA 1,219 1,812 2,198 2,626 Other LT assets 2,948 3,719 4,276 5,058
Deprec. & amort. 116 146 178 215 Cash/ST investment 2,002 814 2,802 763
EBIT 1,103 1,666 2,021 2,411 Other current assets 5,545 7,634 7,290 10,018
Total other non-operating income (0.5) 5.0 10 10 Total assets 11,211 13,008 15,352 16,976
Net interest income/(expense) (185) (258) (254) (290) ST debt 1,879 2,579 2,529 2,879
Pre-tax profit 917 1,413 1,776 2,131 Other current liabilities 3,264 3,433 4,754 4,686
Tax (246) (379) (477) (533) LT debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minorities (59) (59) (59) (59) Other LT liabilities 380 480 552 653
Net profit 612 974 1,241 1,539 Shareholders' equity 5,409 6,164 7,112 8,279
Net profit (adj.) 612 974 1,241 1,539 Minority interest 279 352 405 479
Total liabilities & equity 11,211 13,008 15,352 16,976

CASH FLOW KEY METRICS

Year to 31 Dec (Rpb) 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Year to 31 Dec (%) 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
Operating 3,111 (700) 3,155 (941) Profitability
Pre-tax profit 917 1,413 1,776 2,131 EBITDA margin 3.6 4.2 4.4 4.5
Tax (246) (379) (477) (533) Pre-tax margin 2.7 3.3 3.6 3.6
Deprec. & amort. 116 146 178 215 Net margin 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.6
Working capital changes 1,118 (1,588) 1,912 (2,654) ROA 5.8 8.0 8.7 9.5
Other operating cashflows 1,206 (292) (234) (101) ROE 12.0 16.8 18.7 20.0
Investing (973) (1,042) (878) (1,150)
Capex (growth) (214) (271) (320) (368) Growth
Others (759) (771) (557) (782) Turnover 3.5 26.1 15.0 18.3
Financing (707) 554 (290) 52 EBITDA 35.0 48.7 21.3 19.4
Dividend payments 0.0 (219) (292) (372) Pre-tax profit 94.1 54.0 25.8 20.0
Issue of shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net profit 107.4 59.2 27.3 24.1
Proceeds from borrowings (824) 700 (50) 350 Net profit (adj.) 107.4 59.2 27.3 24.1
Others/interest paid 118 73 53 74 EPS 107.4 59.2 27.3 24.1
Net cash inflow (outflow) 1,431 (1,188) 1,988 (2,039)
Beginning cash & cash equivalent 571 2,002 814 2,802 Leverage
Changes due to forex impact n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Debt to total capital 24.8 28.4 25.2 24.7
Ending cash & cash equivalent 2,002 814 2,802 763 Debt to equity 34.7 41.8 35.6 34.8
Net debt/(cash) to equity (2.3) 28.6 (3.8) 25.6
Interest cover (x) 6.6 7.0 8.6 9.1

Refer to last page for important disclosures. 4

I n d o n e s i a D a i l y Tuesday, 05 October 2021

TRADERS’ CORNER
UNVR.JK - Daily 10/4/2021 Open 3880, Hi 4020, Lo 3870, Close 3980 (3.1%) MA1(Close,20) = 3,989.50, MA2(Close,50) = 4,153.80, BBTop(Close,50,2) = 4,567.66, BBBot(Close,50,2) = 3,739.94
Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ)
7,000
Technical BUY with 8% potential return
6,500 Resistance: Rp4,080, Rp4,300

6,000
Support: Rp3,830, Rp3,800
Stop-loss: Rp3,870
5,500

Share price closed with positive notes and formed

5,000 a bullish candlestick. Momentum is getting better;
hence, we expect more upside pressure and
4,567.66
4,500
challenge the resistance at Rp4,080 and
4,153.8
3,989.5 Rp4,300. Technical indicator RSI is sloping
3,980
4,000

3,739.94
upwards but remains under its centre line while
the MACD has just formed a bullish crossover
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
UNVR.JK - RSI(13) = 47.47 47.4677 signal. Buy at Rp3,960 and take profit at
30
Rp4,300.
UNVR.JK - MACD(12,26) = -82.39, Signal(12,26,9) = -94.48
-82.3864
0 Approximate time frame: 2-4 weeks.
-100
-94.4819
-200
UNVR.JK - Volume = 42,279,800.00, MA(Volume,5) = 29,404,720.00
60M
Our institutional research has a fundamental BUY
42,279,800
40M
29,404,720
20M
and target price of Rp5,900.
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com

Source: Amibroker

ACES.JK - Daily 10/4/2021 Open 1260, Hi 1330, Lo 1260, Close 1305 (3.6%) MA1(Close,20) = 1,330.25, MA2(Close,50) = 1,366.80, BBTop(Close,50,2) = 1,500.21, BBBot(Close,50,2) = 1,233.39 1,700
Ace Hardware Indonesia
1,650
(ACES IJ)
1,600
Technical BUY with 6% potential return
1,550
Resistance: Rp1,340, Rp1,370
1,500.21
1,500
Support: Rp1,280, Rp1,250
1,450
Stop-loss: Rp1.265
1,400
Share price rebounded strongly and formed a
long-body bullish candlestick. The price breached
1,366.8
1,350

its Rp1,280 resistance level; hence, we see

1,330.25

1,305
1,300
potential for more upside continuation and
1,250
1,233.39
challenge the resistance at Rp1,340 and
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Rp1,370. Technical indicator RSI is rebounding
ACES.JK - RSI(13) = 44.69 70
from its oversold zone, while the MACD has
44.6885

30
potential to form a bullish crossover signal. Buy at
ACES.JK - MACD(12,26) = -33.77, Signal(12,26,9) = -30.59 Rp1,290 and take profit at Rp1,370.
-30.59450

Approximate time frame: 2-4 weeks.

-33.7725
-50
ACES.JK - Volume = 84,265,696.00, MA(Volume,5) = 34,379,180.00 84,265,696

50M
34,379,180

Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com

Source: Amibroker

ANALYST(S)
Maskun Ramli, CFTe
+6221 2993 3915
maskunramli@uobkayhian.com

Refer to last page for important disclosures. 5

I n d o n e s i a D a i l y Tuesday, 05 October 2021

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I n d o n e s i a D a i l y Tuesday, 05 October 2021

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Refer to last page for important disclosures. 7