June 28, 2021

Indian Markets Last price % chg 1d % chg 3m % chg 6m % chg ytd US indices registered its best week in months as participants grew
Nifty 15,860 0.4 9.3 14.3 13.4 more relaxed about inflation, seeing the current price acceleration in
Sensex 52,925 0.4 8.0 11.8 10.8 the US not as a sustained economic threat, but as a temporary uptick.
BSE Small Cap 24,996 0.4 23.3 39.3 38.1 We expect range resolution back home on the upside this week, with
Midcap 22,550 1.0 12.9 26.5 25.7 banks taking over the leadership.
USD/INR 74.20 0.0 (2.1) (0.9) (1.5)
Developed/Emerging markets MARKET SENTIMENTS
Dow Jones 34,434 0.7 4.1 13.3 12.5
Nifty intra-day BankNifty intra-day
S&P 500 4,281 0.3 7.7 14.6 14.0
Nasdaq 14,345 (0.1) 10.5 11.7 11.3 15,900 36,000

Nikkei 29,038 (0.1) (0.5) 8.1 5.8 15,850

35,500
Hang Seng 29,288 1.4 3.4 11.3 7.6 15,800
35,000
Bovespa 127,256 (1.7) 10.9 6.8 6.9 15,750
DAX 15,608 0.1 5.8 13.2 13.8 15,700 34,500
FTSE 7,136 0.4 5.9 9.8 10.5 09:15 10:45 12:15 13:45 15:15 09:15 10:45 12:15 13:45 15:15
SGX Nifty 15,855 (0.1) 8.4 14.2 13.4 Intra-day Advance / Decline ADR/GDR
Advance Decline Vedanta 3.1
1,500
Commodity Last price % chg 1d % chg 3m % chg 6m % chg ytd Axis Bank 2.9
Gold (troy oz) 1,779 (0.2) 3.9 (5.1) (6.3) ICICI Bank 1.4
1,000
Dr. Reddy 1.3
Silver (troy oz) 26 (0.6) 5.3 (1.1) (1.7)
Tata Motors 0.7
Copper (MT) 9,395 (0.2) 4.8 20.6 21.0 500 Infy 0.3
Aluminium (MT) 2,488 0.1 8.3 22.6 25.7 Hdfc Bank 0.2
Zinc (MT) 2,909 0.1 2.8 2.3 5.7 0 Wipro (0.5)
09:15 10:45 12:15 13:45 15:15 (%)
Reliance (1.4)
Lead (MT) 2,223 0.1 13.9 12.8 11.5
Nickel (MT) 18,535 0.1 13.1 9.1 11.6 (4.0) 0.0 4.0

Br. Crude (bbl) 77 0.5 18.6 50.5 47.8

Participants-wise activity
FX & G-Sec Last price % chg 1d % chg 3m % chg 6m % chg ytd Cash (Rs cr) Derivative (Number of contracts)
USD/INR 74.20 0.0 (2.1) (0.9) (1.5) Last Day YTD Index Fut. Stock Fut. Index Call Index Put
EUR/USD 1.19 0.0 1.4 (2.3) (2.3) FII (679) 57,793 (8,338) 9,783 (11,471) 32,513
US 10YR 1.53 0.2 (8.9) 65.5 67.3 DII 1,833 (21,911) 964 (1,044) 87 (647)
India 10YR 6.03 0.3 (1.6) 2.4 2.8 Prop 3,507 (1,384) (75,603) 43,832
Retail 3,867 (7,355) 86,987 (75,698)

Head of Research: Amar Ambani  amar.ambani@ysil.in (For important information about YES SECURITIES (INDIA) LTD. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
 News & Events

Top gainers (NSE 500) Top losers (NSE 500) Corporate snippets
Company CMP % chg Company CMP % chg
Shoperstop 262 15.9 Crisil 2,648 (5.6)  ONGC reports Q4 profit at Rs 6,734 crore, realisation increases
Allcargo 161 12.0 Adanitrans 1,193 (5.0) 18.4%.
Idea 11 11.0 Ibrealest 116 (4.4)  Peninsula Land Consolidated March 2021 Net Sales at Rs 113.97
Apollohosp 3,439 7.4 Alokinds 26 (4.1)
crore, down 65.6% Y-o-Y.
Iob 25 7.4 Vakrangee 42 (4.0)
Nationalum 73 7.3 Venkeys 3,426 (3.5)  Brigade Enterprises raised Rs 500 crore from qualified institutional
Centralbk 25 7.1 Tv18Brdcst 44 (3.2) buyers at a price of Rs 268 per share.
Navinfluor 3,648 7.0 Hfcl 65 (3.1)
 The Competition Commission of India (CCI) has approved the
Aegischem 362 6.9 Geship 382 (2.9)
acquisition of the Goa plant of Zuari Agro Chemicals by Paradeep
Thyrocare 1,448 6.2 Irb 162 (2.8)
Phosphates.
 MG Motor to launch 2nd EV in next 2 years.
Recent eco. data Actual Cons. Upcoming eco. Data Cons. Previous
GBP Retail Sales US CB Consumer
Economy snippets
-1.4% 1.6% 118.5 121.7
(MoM) (May) Confidence (Jun)
EUR CPI (YoY) US Unemployment  Central Government's public debt rises by 19% in FY21.
2.0% 2.0% 5.7% 5.8%
(May) Rate (Jun)
 Forex reserves fall by USD 4.1 billion.
 CEA expects food inflation to ease with relaxation of lockdown,
good monsoon.
 Crisil forecasts India's real GDP growth for 2021-22 at 9.5%.
Bulk deals
 Centre to monitor Covid data for 6 weeks to decide on economic
 Elara India Opportunities Fund sold 3.41 lakh shares of Rossell intervention: Sanjeev Sanyal.
India at Rs145
 Covid pandemic could worsen structural deficits and indebtedness
 Abakkus bought 6.35 lakh shares of DCM Shriram Industries at of states: S&P.
Rs361 in two separate bulk deals
 Centre to draft Rs. 200 bln ECRP-2 package ahead of Covid-19's 3rd
wave.
 Crude oil production dips by 6.3% in May 2021.
 Production of natural gas up by 19% in May 2021.

Source: ET, FE, BS, Mint

2
 Technicals

Going by the action of last two sessions, the market is clearly Recovery from day’s low Fall from day’s high

attempting to sustain at the top. Post Wednesday’s decline, it has

Adanitrans
Jswenergy

Edelweiss
Ashokley
rallied back to 23rd June peak building up on yesterday’s recovery.

Fretail
This action at the top has caused a no-action zone for the index. Last 11
week, Nifty found support around the midpoint of the entire move 1167 3648 3439 73
130 160 68 1,238 76
from previous Friday’s low to this week’s high, implying immediate

9.0%
support around 15,650 zone. Index formed another bullish candle in

6.6%

6.3%

6.3%

6.1%
Friday’s session, rallying by 0.4%. Ongoing broader congestion

-3.4%
-3.8%
-3.9%
-4.0%
between 15,400-15,900 will come to an end on a decisive move above

-4.9%
multiple supply points between 15,850-15,900. Nifty-breadth remained 10 1090 3417 3222 69

mildly positive, moreover all the sectoral indices ended in green, 73

Adanigreen

Nationalum
Apollohosp
Navinfluor
Idea
154 65 1,193
except FMCG index. BankNifty was among the major movers in
123
today’s session. Ratio of the leadership index vs Nifty reversed from
the support of its 200-DMA, suggesting continuation of banks
outperformance.

Rising Price, Rising Volume Falling Price, Rising Volume

High Delivery stocks Low Delivery stocks
Price Vol Price
% %
Company Close % % Company Close % Vol %
Company % Del Close chg Company % Del Close chg
Idea 11 11.0 101 Reliance 2,104 (2.3) 123
Sanofi 78 7,698 (0.4) Adaniports 11 712 0.3
Apollohosp 3,439 7.4 383 Ongc 121 (0.9) 7
Dalbharat 75 1,833 1.7 Ashokley 12 123 4.4
Nationalum 73 7.3 108 Sanofi 7,698 (0.4) 89
Vbl 73 716 (0.7) Adanient 12 1,519 0.7
Navinfluor 3,648 7.0 279 Igl 513 (0.2) 72
Emamiltd 65 540 (2.4) Bhel 13 65 0.9
Mfsl 1,085 5.6 20 Kotakbank 1,735 (0.2) 238
Petronet 64 228 0.2 Ibulhsgfin 14 271 2.6

Top Movers Vol. Spurt Index pivot

Vol Day's Avg. Index Close Support Pivot Resistance
% chg Vol Vol Price
Nifty 15,860 15,798 15,834 15,897
Company Close chg % Company ('000) ('000) chg %
Idea 11 11.0 16 Apollohosp 3,718 882 7.4 Sensex 52,925 52,702 52,838 53,061

Apollohosp 3,439 7.4 75 Ashokley 104,329 26,485 4.4 BankNifty 35,365 35,023 35,257 35,599
Nifty IT 29,211 28,962 29,123 29,372
Nationalum 73 7.3 6 Navinfluor 1,136 320 7.0
Navinfluor 3,648 7.0 39 Abfrl 11,145 3,149 5.3
Mfsl 1,085 5.6 (35) Fortis 9,969 3,233 3.5

3
 Technicals

1-Day sectoral trend 5-Day sectoral trend 10-day adv/dec trend (net)
Metal 2.6 Metal 3.5 Net Adv Net Dec
Bank 1.5 IT 2.7 1,000
Fin Services 1.2 Auto 2.5 493 428
376
500 179
Auto 0.8 Bank 2.3
Pharma 0.7 Fin Services 1.8 0
IT 0.6 Realty 0.8
(500)
Realty 0.3 Pharma 0.3 (409) (405)
(555) (612)
Infra (1,000)
Infra 0.1 (0.1) (849)
Media 0.1 FMCG (0.8) (1,500)
Energy (0.6) Media (1.0) 15-Jun 16-Jun 17-Jun 18-Jun 21-Jun 22-Jun 23-Jun 24-Jun 25-Jun

FMCG (0.7) (%) Energy (1.0) (%)

Stocks near 52-week high Stocks near 52-week low
(1) 0 1 2 3 (4) (2) 0 2 4
52w Deviatio 52w Deviatio
Company Close high n (%) Company Close low n (%)
Global Indices Trend (5-day) 7,25
Infy 1,574 1,578 (0.2) Sanofi 7,698 6.1
5
Nikkei 3.7 12,52
Bajajfinsv 12,487 (0.3) Biocon 397 363 9.3
0
Dow Jones 3.4 3,30
Mfsl 1,085 1,090 (0.5) Britannia 3,670 11.0
2.8 5
Hang Seng
1,98
Bel 175 176 (0.5) Whirlpool 2,208 11.5
S&P 500 2.7 0
2.1 Tcs 3,381 3,400 (0.6) Aplltd 981 864 13.5
Nasdaq
FTSE 1.7 Leaders (5-day chg) Laggards (5-day chg)
1.1 5D 5D
Nifty Company Close Company Close
change change
Sensex 1.1 Bel 175 19.7 Vbl 716 (10.0)

DAX 1.0 Gmrinfra 32 12.4 Rajeshexpo 567 (6.2)

Mfsl 1,085 10.9 Reliance 2,104 (5.4)
Bovespa (0.9)
Godrejagro 615 10.9 Jublfood 3,118 (5.3)
(%) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 Maruti 7,649 9.9 Mgl 1,127 (5.2)

4
 Derivatives

Index snapshot
PCR
Futures % Chg Spot Basis Next Month OI in shs OI % Chg PCR Vol ATM IV's Rollovers Max call build-up Max put build-up
OI
Nifty 15,888 0.4 15,860 28 15,936 192,242 3.0 1.25 0.89 12.1 4.4% 16,000 15,500
Bank Nifty 35,489 1.4 35,365 124 35,640 77,569 4.4 1.08 0.89 18.3 3.3% 36,000 34,000

 Nifty inching near its impending resistance zone of 15900 mark as Futures open interest gainers
CMP
Banking stocks powered higher, SGX Nifty indicates flat start for Company OI (lacs) % OI Chg
(Rs)
% Chg Action
the day. Nifty INDEX 148 29.1 15,888 0.4 Long Build Up
Kotakbank 176 17.8 1,746 0.0 Long Build Up
 Index options vol’s crashed lower at ~12 mark on ATM options
Apollohosp 21 17.6 3,450 7.1 Long Build Up
lowest seen in past 1yr as traders continue to write options.
Cumminsind 29 10.6 863 3.3 Long Build Up
 On options front, ATM calls saw unwinding at 15800 strike with NavinFlour 3 9.2 3,664 7.0 Long Build Up
shed of ~3.4lacs shrs as traders shifted base higher at 16k calls, IndusTower 127 8.9 246 0.6 Long Build Up
while aggressive put writing seen at 15800 put additions ~1.1mn Nationalum 848 5.5 74 7.6 Long Build Up
shrs with view of limited downside in short term. Futures open interest losers
CMP
 FII’s unwinding long index futures to tune of ~9k contracts on 1st Company OI (lacs) % OI Chg % Chg Action
(Rs)
day of July expiry with long to short ratio shrinking to ~3.99x from AARTIIND 23 (51.7) 864 1.1 Short Covering
4.59x levels. Ntpc 503 (26.2) 116 (0.9) Long Unwinding
Ongc 774 (25.1) 121 (1.1) Long Unwinding

Stocks in ban period: NIL APL Ltd 11 (25.1) 974 0.5 Short Covering
Bajaj-Auto 13 (20.2) 4,075 (1.0) Long Unwinding
Nifty Open Interest distribution (Monthly Expiry) Powergrid 176 (19.4) 232 0.1 Short Covering
Call OI Put OI BANDHANBNK 111 (18.7) 335 (0.1) Long Unwinding
(lakhs)
5.0
Derivatives statistics
3.9
4.0 FII Index Futures Total long contracts Total short contracts
3.0 2.5 18% Client 20% Client
20%
2.0 1.5 Long DII DII
1.3 1.4 1.41.4
1.0 1.1
0.9 0.8 0.81.0 0.9 0.6 Short 21% 60% FII 20% 59% FII
1.0 0.3 0.4 0.4
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1% 1% Pro
80% Pro
0.0
15,200 15,300 15,400 15,500 15,600 15,700 15,800 15,900 16,000 16,100 16,200

5
 Fixed Income

India yield curve movement Corporate Bond Yield movement (%)

(%) Today 1m ago 6m ago Tenor Latest 1m ago 3m ago
8.0 3Y AAA 5.31 5.12 5.43

7.0
5Y AAA 5.96 5.85 6.25
10Y AAA 6.87 6.85 7.16
6.0
3Y AA+ 5.81 5.66 5.90
5.0
5Y AA+ 6.47 6.34 6.69
4.0
10Y AA+ 7.37 7.35 7.62
3.0
1Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 9Y 11Y 13Y 15Y 30Y

G-sec/Repo spread
(bps)
India 10YR G-sec - Repo Rate
Net Market Activity (INR cr) 240
Participants Latest Previous MTD
Mutual Funds (1,560) 720 (460) 220
Primary Dealers (1,310) 249 (729)
Public Sector Banks 3,356 (360) 448 200
Private Banks (321) 856 54
Foreign Banks (2,734) (1,522) (952) 180

Others 2,569 57 1,639

160
Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21
Market Movement in G-Secs OIS Curve movement (%)
Security Yield (%) Chg (bps) Tenor Today Previous 6m ago
7.17% GS 2028 6.27 3 3M 3.54 3.52 3.49 India/US 10 yr spread
7.37% GS 2023 4.47 0 1Y 3.92 3.93 3.71 (bps) India 10 YR G-sec- US 10 YR Gsec
525
6.84% GS 2022 4.16 0 5Y 5.43 5.43 4.63
8.24% GS 2027 6.11 3 500

7.26% GS 2029 5.87 4

475

450

425

400
Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21

6
 Fixed Income

FPI Capital Flows in Debt markets FPI Debt Utilisation

mn US$ (%)
Daily flow CYTD Flow G Sec Corp Bonds
45
1,000
40
0

(1,000) 35

(2,000) 30

(3,000) 25
(4,000)
20
15-Jun 17-Jun 19-Jun 21-Jun 23-Jun
Dec-20 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21

Bloomberg India Banking Liquidity Indicator

(INR bn)
7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000
30-May 3-Jun 7-Jun 11-Jun 15-Jun 19-Jun 23-Jun

7
 Currency

Market snapshot
Spot (NSE) Futures (NSE)
Change in
Currency Close % Change Open High Low Close OI S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
OI
USDINR 74.20 (0.04) 74.21 74.27 74.15 74.23 (195,296) 1,764,343 74.10 74.16 74.21 74.28 74.33
EURINR 88.60 (0.00) 88.60 88.72 88.55 88.67 (13,686) 37,233 88.47 88.57 88.64 88.74 88.82
GBPINR 103.18 0.39 103.35 103.38 103.12 103.21 (11,465) 85,503 102.98 103.09 103.24 103.35 103.50
JPYINR 0.67 (0.07) 66.99 67.10 66.89 67.04 (2,507) 19,193 66.79 66.92 67.01 67.13 67.22

USDINR option chain Sterling seems to be struggling after a strong tone during most part of
CALL PUT June. Bank of England stated that inflation would surpass 3% after the
Open Int. OI chg CMP Strike CMP Open Int. OI chg economy reopens, though the central bank is not keen on normalising
186,350 4,889 1.23 73.00 0.00 238,562 12,556 policy. Mexico's peso jumped after the central bank unexpectedly
113,494 (3,343) 0.98 73.25 0.00 72,128 1,770 raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%.
148,545 (14,942) 0.72 73.50 0.01 191,168 (5,302)
75,622 6,134 0.47 73.75 0.00 73,731 (5,609) India Macros
Latest 3m ago 6m ago 1yr ago
228,749 1,251 0.23 74.00 0.01 225,324 51,614
CAD % of GDP (Qtrly) 1.3 1.3 0.4 (1.0)
128,325 24,939 0.04 74.25 0.07 122,128 21,099
BOP in US$ bn (Qtrly) 32.5 31.6 19.8 21.6
234,173 43,543 0.01 74.50 0.29 75,418 5,014
Fiscal Deficit % of GDP (Qtrly) (9.2) (6.0) (6.3) (4.6)
37,768 (10,659) 0.01 74.75 0.53 7,934 (518)
CPI 6.3 5.0 6.9 6.3
118,679 2,825 0.00 75.00 0.78 21,210 (3,640) Core CPI 6.3 5.6 5.6 4.9
IIP growth 134.4 (0.6) 4.5 (57.3)
Sovereign Yields
Infra Sector growth 56.1 1.3 (0.5) (37.9)
Latest 3m ago 6m ago 1yr ago
Mfg PMI 50.8 57.5 56.3 30.8
India 10yr 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Service PMI 46.4 55.3 53.7 12.6
US 10yr 1.5 1.7 0.9 0.6
GDP Growth (Qtrly %) 1.6 0.5 (7.4) 3.0
Germany 10yr (0.2) (0.4) (0.5) (0.5)
Japan 10yr 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Speculative Positions on CME
'000 lots
India Foreign Capital Flows DXY Euro GBP
150
Latest Month 3m ago 6m ago 1yr ago
FII Equity flows (US$ mn) 1,388 2,971 6,382 2,940 0
FII Debt flows (US$ mn) (381) (881) 645 (363)
FX Reserves (US$ bn) 604 582 581 506 (150)
RBI Net Purchase of US$ (bn) 4.2 2.9 15.6 (1.1) Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21

8
 Commodities

We think the ultimate impact of US infra deal on base metals prices Commodities (US$ terms) Last Price % chg 1d % chg 3m % chg ytd
will be minimal given the diverse nature of the spending stretched out Gold (troy oz) 1,779 (0.2) 3.9 (6.3)
over so many years. The relatively muted market reaction to this news Silver (troy oz) 26.0 (0.6) 5.3 (1.7)
Copper (MT) 9,395 (0.2) 4.8 21.0
is also telling and could not be more different than the price explosion
Aluminium (MT) 2,488 0.1 8.3 25.7
we saw following the 2016 election when infrastructure spending Zinc (MT) 2,909 0.1 2.8 5.7
proposals also cropped up only to die on the vine. Lead (MT) 2,223 0.1 13.9 11.5
Nickel (MT) 18,535 0.1 13.1 11.6
LME Index WTI Crude (bbl) 74.4 0.4 22.0 53.3
Br. Crude (bbl) 76.6 0.5 18.6 47.8
4600 NG (mmBtu) 3.5 0.4 37.3 38.2
4400
4200 Week
Commodity Dynamics Latest 1m ago 6m ago 1yr ago
ago
4000
SPDR Gold ETF (tonnes) 1,043 1,053 1,046 1,168 1,175
3800 iShares Silver ETF (mn oz) 561 566 577 555 491
3600 Gold/Silver Ratio 69 69 68 71 99
3400 LME Cu Stocks ('000 MT) 211 169 126 116 226
3200
LME Al Stocks ('000 MT) 1,596 1,621 1,734 1,372 1,638
Dec-20 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 LME Zn Stocks ('000 MT) 257 261 288 206 123
LME Pb Stocks ('000 MT) 85 88 102 134 72
Commodity v/s Currency LME Ni Stocks ('000 MT) 235 238 249 247 234
US Crude stocks (mn bbl) 459 467 486 500 541
CRB Index (LHS) DXY (RHS)
220 94 US Oil Rig Count 372 373 356 264 188
WTI/Brent Spread (2.2) (1.8) (3.0) (3.2) (2.5)
200
92 Speculative Positions on CME
180 Gold Silver Copper Crude (RHS) ('000 lots)
90 300,000 ('000 lots) 400000
160
300000
200,000
140 88
Dec-20 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 200000
100,000
100000

0 0
Dec-20 Feb-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jun-21

9
 Commodities

Market snapshotss
Price Chg Open
Symbol CMP Volume OI Chg (%) Support 2 Support 1 Pivot Resistance 1 Resistance 2
(%) Interest
Precious Metals (MCX)
Gold Fut 46,925 0.12 6,797 10,703 (0.01) 46,613 46,769 46,991 47,147 47,369
Silver Fut 67,873 0.21 9,721 6,838 (0.15) 67,300 67,586 68,043 68,329 68,786
Industrial Metals (MCX)
Aluminium Fut 193 2.04 44 397 (0.52) 189 191 192 194 195
Zinc Fut 236 (1.44) 107 132 (0.60) 233 234 237 239 242
Copper Fut 717 (0.28) 99 80 (0.71) 708 712 717 721 726
Lead Fut 170 1.10 23 40 (0.89) 165 167 170 173 175
Nickel Fut 1,377 0.74 75 110 (0.53) 1,361 1,369 1,377 1,385 1,392
Energy (MCX)
Crude Oil Fut 5,503 1.21 48,720 8,733 0.22 5,376 5,440 5,476 5,540 5,576
Natural Gas Fut 261 2.07 123,481 22,338 11.37 252 257 259 264 266

Options Monitor
Call OI Chg Put OI Chg Call Vol
Call OI (lots) Put OI (lots) Vol. Chg (%) Put Vol (lots) Vol. Chg (%) PCR OI PCR Volume
(%) (%) (lots)
Gold 2,112 -1.28% 1,124 2.49% 520 17.88% 137 24.09% 0.53 0.26
Silver 102 76.04% 96 76.04% 65 38.46% 71 54.93% 0.94 1.09

MCX Spread Matrix (Gold- 1kg) MCX Spread matrix (Silver-30Kg)

Gold Aug-21 Oct-21 Dec-21 Feb-22 Silver Jul-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22
Aug-21 0.00 (284.00) (531) (839) Jul-21 0.00 (1,077) (2,995) (3,957)
Oct-21 0.00 0.00 (247) (555) Sep-21 0.00 0.00 (1,918) (2,880)
Dec-21 0.00 0.00 0.00 (308) Dec-21 0.00 0.00 0.00 (962)
Feb-22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Mar-22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

10

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