Mis-Management 102

How Did the Houston Astros End Up in

the American League West Division?
(and what to do about it)

J. R. Wildridge
SABR 46, Miami
28 July 2016
1
Topics for Discussion

• Background
• Relocation & Expansion Phases I–V
– What’s Right, What’s Wrong
– My Analysis
• Proposed Solution
• Then, What If…
– Further Expansion
– Or More Relocations
• Conclusions
2
MLB Teams
1903 Season
American League National League

Boston Americans Boston Beaneaters

Chicago White Stockings Brooklyn Superbas
Cleveland Blues Chicago Cubs (renamed)
Detroit Tigers Cincinnati Reds
New York Highlanders (relocated) New York Giants
Philadelphia Athletics Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Browns Pittsburgh Pirates
Washington Senators St. Louis Cardinals

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MLB Teams
1952 Season
American League National League

Boston Red Sox Boston Braves

Chicago White Sox Brooklyn Dodgers
Cleveland Indians Chicago Cubs
Detroit Tigers Cincinnati Reds
New York Yankees New York Giants
Philadelphia Athletics Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Browns Pittsburgh Pirates
Washington Senators St. Louis Cardinals

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National League Teams in 1953

5
American League Teams in 1954–55

6
Relocation of Dodgers & Giants

• In the mid-1950’s:
– the Dodgers are searching for a new stadium in
Brooklyn…
– Baseball desires to break into the lucrative
California market
• The Dodgers’ and Giants’ move to California
caused a major impact
– NL wanted back into the New York market
– AL wanted a team in California, specifically Los
Angeles

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National League Teams in 1960

8
American League Teams in 1960

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Relocation & Initial Expansion…

• 1961, AL: Washington franchise relocates to

Minneapolis / St. Paul, becoming the Twins

• 1961, AL: Los Angeles Angels & Washington

Senators begin play
– Reference Andy McCue’s presentation at SABR 39,
entitled “Mis-Management 101”

• 1962, NL: Houston Astros & New York Mets

begin play
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Schedule Implications & Changes

Year League # Teams Series Home / Away Total Games

1960 AL 8 7 x 22 11 / 11 154
NL 8 7 x 22 11 / 11 154
1961 AL 10 9 x 18 9/9 162
NL 8 7 x 22 11 / 11 154
1963–68 AL 10 9 x 18 9/9 162
NL 10 9 x 18 9/9 162

Expansion Resulted in Schedule Increase of 8 Games

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National League Teams in 1968

12
American League Teams in 1968

13
Expansion Round II

• The 1969 expansion changed everything

– Two (2) new teams in each league
– Introduced divisional play
– Changed playing format

• 1969 also introduced a round of divisional

playoffs, prior to World Series
– Created a longer season

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National League Teams in 1969

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American League Teams in 1969

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New Playing Format

Year League # Teams Series Home / Away Total Games

1969 AL 12 5 x 18 9/9 90
6 x 12 6/6 72
NL 12 5 x 18 9/9 90
6 x 12 6/6 72

• 162-game schedule now “institutionalized”

• But why were Atlanta and Cincinnati placed in
the NL West?
– Both cities are east of Chicago and St. Louis

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Relocation & Expansion Round III

• 1970, AL: Seattle Pilots fold after one season;

franchise relocates to Milwaukee

• 1972, AL: Washington franchise relocates to

Arlington, becoming the Texas Rangers

• 1977, AL: Seattle tries again with the Mariners,

along with Toronto, which had become the
largest city in Canada

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National League Teams in 1977

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American League Teams in 1977

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Evolution of Playing Format

Year League # Teams Series Home / Away Total Games

1969-76 AL 12 5 x 18 9/9 90
6 x 12 6/6 72
1977-78 AL 14 6 x 15 Varies 90
7 x 10-11 Varies 72
1979-92 AL 14 6 x 13 Varies 78
7 x 12 Varies 84

Year League # Teams Series Home / Away Total Games

1969-92 NL 12 5 x 18 9/9 90
6 x 12 6/6 72

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Expansion Round IV

• By the early 1990’s, Baseball was a mess:

– Giants were looking to relocate (St. Petersburg?)
– Commissioner Giamatti elected, then passed away
– New Commissioner Vincent introduces realignment
concept, but nothing is settled; he later resigns
– “Acting” Commissioner Selig takes over
• 1993, Florida Marlins and Colorado Rockies
begin play in the National League
– Playing format evolves into the “balanced schedule”
in both leagues
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National League Teams in 1993

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American League Teams in 1993

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PROPOSED DIVISIONAL ALIGNMENT
THREE DIVISION SCENARIO

AMERICAN LEAGUE

West Central East

California Angels Chicago White Sox Baltimore Orioles
Oakland Athletics Detroit Tigers Boston Red Sox
Seattle Mariners Kansas City Royals Cleveland Indians
Texas Rangers Milwaukee Brewers New York Yankees
Minnesota Twins Toronto Blue Jays

NATIONAL LEAGUE

West Central East

Colorado Rockies Chicago Cubs Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles Dodgers Cincinnati Reds Florida Marlins
San Diego Padres Houston Astros Montreal Expos
San Francisco Giants Pittsburgh Pirates New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals Philadelphia Phillies

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Inter-League Play Began in 1997

• Designed to increase attendance

• Major impact to playing schedules
– Inconsistency and inequities

Year League # Teams Series Home / Away Total Games

1997 AL East 5 Varies Varies 162
AL Central 5 Varies Varies 162
AL West 4 Varies Varies 162
1997 NL East 5 Varies Varies 162
NL Central 5 Varies Varies 162
NL West 4 Varies Varies 162

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MILWAUKEE BREWERS
1997 SCHEDULE ANALYSIS
AL West AL East
H A H A

Anaheim 5 6 Baltimore 6 5
Oakland 5 6 Boston 6 5
Seattle 6 5 Detroit 6 5
Texas 6 5 New York 6 5
Toronto 5 6
22 22 29 26

AL Central Inter-League
H A H A

Chicago 6 6 Chicago 0 3
Cleveland 6 6 Cincinnati 0 3
Kansas City 6 6 Houston 0 3
Milwaukee – – Pittsburgh 3 0
Minnesota 6 6 St. Louis 3 0
24 24 6 9

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COLORADO ROCKIES
1997 SCHEDULE ANALYSIS
NL West NL East
H A H A

Colorado — — Atlanta 6 5
Los Angeles 6 6 Florida 5 6
San Diego 6 6 Montreal 6 5
San Francisco 6 6 New York 5 6
Philadelphia 6 5
18 18 27 28

NL Central Inter-League
H A H A

Chicago 6 5 Anaheim 2 2
Cincinnati 6 5 Oakland 2 2
Houston 5 6 Seattle 2 2
Pittsburgh 5 6 Texas 2 2
St. Louis 6 5
28 27 8 8

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Expansion Round V

• Arizona owner Jerry Colangelo declares “we’re

a National League” team; the Diamondbacks
begin play in 1998
• 1998, AL: Tampa Bay Devil Rays begin play
• Milwaukee Brewers switch to National League
• Inconsistent placement of Texas teams
– Houston Astros in NL Central
– Texas Rangers in AL West
• Messy playing schedules; inequitable travel
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30
National League Teams in 1998

31
American League Teams in 1998

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1998 Expansion / League Affiliations

• Placing the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in American

League East Division was an obvious choice
– Yielded an AL team in South Atlantic Region,
balancing the NL presence
• However, placing the Arizona Diamondbacks in
the NL West Division made no sense at all
– Denver was already an NL West team — created a
second team in Mountain Region
• Milwaukee, a team with a 28-year history in the
AL, switches to the National League
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FRANCHISE LOCATIONS
1998 ASSESSMENT

Key Division of U.S.A. AL NL

1 New England 1 0
2 Middle Atlantic 2 c 4 c
3 East North Central 3 3 s
4 West North Central 2 1
5 South Atlantic 2 n 2
6 East South Central 0 0
7 West South Central 1 1
8 Mountain 0 2 n
9 Pacific 3 3
Number of Teams 14 16

Notes:
c Canadian franchises in Toronto (AL) and Montreal (NL) are included in Region 2
n New franchises in Tampa Bay (AL) and Arizona (NL) began play in 1998
s Milwaukee became an NL team for the 1998 season

reference: U. S. Census Bureau Page 1 of 4

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Relocation of the Expos

• In the late 1990’s the Montréal Expos struggled:

– Poor on-field performance
– Low attendance
• Efforts to build new, downtown ballpark failed
• 2001: MLB bought the franchise and threatened
to “contract” the Expos (and the Twins)
• 2003 & 2004: Expos played 22 “home” games in
Puerto Rico in an attempt to increase revenues
• Late 2004: Expos franchise sold and relocated
to Washington DC, becoming the Nationals
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2013 Realignment

• One of Commissioner Selig’s final moves was

the “balancing” of the two leagues
– Resulted in three 5-team divisions in each league
– Created inter-league play throughout entire season
• Side benefit was creation of “better” schedule
– 19 games vs. each team within the division (76)
– 6 or 7 games vs. every other league team (66)
– 20 inter-league games
• Problem: He moved the wrong team!

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FRANCHISE LOCATIONS
2013 ASSESSMENT

Key Division of U.S.A. AL NL

1 New England 1 0
2 Middle Atlantic 2 c 3
3 East North Central 3 3
4 West North Central 2 1
5 South Atlantic 2 3
6 East South Central 0 0
s
7 West South Central 2 0
8 Mountain 0 2
9 Pacific 3 3
Number of Teams 15 15

Notes:
c Canadian franchise in Toronto (AL) is included in Region 2
s Houston became an AL team for the 2013 season

reference: U. S. Census Bureau Page 2 of 4

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HOUSTON ASTROS
2013 SCHEDULE ANALYSIS
AL West AL East
H A H A

Houston — — Baltimore 3 3
Los Angeles 9 10 Boston 3 4
Oakland 9 10 New York 3 3
Seattle 10 9 Tampa Bay 4 3
Texas 10 9 Toronto 3 4
38 38 16 17

AL Central Inter-League
H A H A

Chicago 4 3 Chicago 0 3
Cleveland 3 4 Cincinnati 3 0
Detroit 4 3 Colorado 2 2
Kansas City 3 3 Milwaukee 3 0
Minnesota 3 3 Pittsburgh 0 3
17 16 St. Louis 2 2
10 10
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What Should Have Happened

• Houston should have been moved to the NL

West
– Maintaining their “natural” inter-league rival, the
Texas Rangers, playing annually for the Silver Boot

• Arizona should have been moved to the AL

West
– In this scenario, their “natural” inter-league rival
could have easily been Colorado, or San Diego, or…

39
FRANCHISE LOCATIONS
SHOULD HAVE HAPPENED

Key Division of U.S.A. AL NL

1 New England 1 0
2 Middle Atlantic 2 c 3
3 East North Central 3 3
4 West North Central 2 1
5 South Atlantic 2 3
6 East South Central 0 0
7 West South Central 1 1
8 Mountain 1 s 1
9 Pacific 3 3
Number of Teams 15 15

Notes:
c Canadian franchise in Toronto (AL) is included in Region 2
s Arizona should have become an AL team for the 2013 season

reference: U. S. Census Bureau Page 3 of 4

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“Logical” Divisional Alignment
AL West AL Central AL East
Arizona Diamondbacks Chicago White Sox Baltimore Orioles
Los Angeles Angels Cleveland Indians Boston Red Sox
Oakland Athletics Detroit Tigers New York Yankees
Seattle Mariners Kansas City Royals Tampa Bay Rays
Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins Toronto Blue Jays

NL West NL Central NL East

Colorado Rockies Chicago Cubs Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros Cincinnati Reds Miami Marlins
Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers New York Mets
San Diego Padres Pittsburgh Pirates Philadelphia Phillies
San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals
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What If: Expansion, Relocation, etc.

• So now that we’ve corrected the alignment of

the current 15-team leagues and introduced the
concept of regions and divisions of the
population according to the U.S. Census
Bureau, let’s examine a few scenarios:
– Initial expansion to 32 teams
– Further expansion to 36 teams
– Relocation of at least one (1) franchise
• Tools and techniques should apply to all
scenarios
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Population in Each Division

Division 2010 Population Teams Population / Team

New England 14,444,865 1 14,444,865
Middle Atlantic 40,872,375 4 10,218,094
East North Central 46,421,564 6 7,736,927
West North Central 20,505,437 3 6,835,146
South Atlantic 59,777,037 5 11,955,407
East South Central 18,432,505 0 18,432,505
West South Central 36,346,202 2 18,173,101
Mountain 22,065,451 2 11,032,726
Pacific 49,880,102 6 8,313,350

Target Expansion into Both South Central Divisions

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10 Largest U.S. Cities and MLB

1980 1990 2000 2010

1. New York (2) 1. New York (2) 1. New York (2) 1. New York (2)
2. Chicago (2) 2. Los Angeles (2) 2. Los Angeles (2) 2. Los Angeles (2)
3. Los Angeles (2) 3. Chicago (2) 3. Chicago (2) 3. Chicago (2)
4. Philadelphia 4. Houston 4. Houston 4. Houston
5. Houston 5. Philadelphia 5. Philadelphia 5. Philadelphia
6. Detroit 6. San Diego 6. Phoenix 6. Phoenix
7. Dallas 7. Detroit 7. San Diego 7. San Antonio
8. San Diego 8. Dallas 8. Dallas 8. San Diego
9. Phoenix 9. Phoenix 9. San Antonio 9. Dallas
10.Baltimore 10.San Antonio 10.Detroit 10.San Jose

Number of MLB Teams in 10 Largest U.S. Cities

12 11 12 11

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Another View of the U.S. Population

Metropolitan Area Principal City Includes… 2010 Census

1 New York Metropolitan New York City Newark 23,076,664
2 Greater Los Angeles Area Los Angeles Long Beach 17,877,006
3 Chicago Metropolitan Chicago La Porte 9,840,929
4 Washington Metropolitan Washington Baltimore 9,051,961
5 Greater San Francisco San Francisco Oakland and 8,153,696
Bay Area San José
6 Boston Metropolitan Boston Providence 7,893,376
7 Philadelphia Metro Philadelphia Reading 7,067,807
8 D/FW “Metroplex” Dallas Arlington and 6,817,483
Fort Worth
9 Miami Metropolitan Area Miami Ft. Lauderdale 6,166,766
10 Houston Metropolitan Houston The Woodlands 6,114,562
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Expansion Round VI???

• If and/or when MLB decides to expand, how

might the alignment change?
– How might the playing format change?
• Paper by Jeff Zimmerman, posted on The
HardBall Times (hardballtimes.com), suggests
MLB needs to expand immediately, eventually
up to 36 teams!
• Various cities were evaluated and ranked in a
study by Chris Mitchell, also posted on The
HardBall Times
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Expansion Round VI??? (cont’d)

• New Commissioner Manfred is open to the idea

of expansion, but…
– Will wait until labor negotiations are complete and
– Oakland’s need for a new stadium are addressed
• Potential expansion cities:
– San Jose, CA – Charlotte, NC
– Las Vegas, NV – Portland, OR
– Austin, TX – Nashville, TN
– Sacramento, CA – San Antonio, TX
• Or maybe a return to Brooklyn… or Montréal…
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What If: MLB Expanded to 32 Teams

• The Giants’ territorial rights issues are resolved

allowing the Athletics build a stadium in San
José;
• Austin is awarded an expansion franchise to
play in the National League, beginning in __;
• Nashville is awarded an expansion franchise to
play in the American League, beginning in ___;
• Houston is a National League team; and
• Arizona is an American League team.

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Future 16-Team National League

A
49
Future 16-Team American League

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Logical League & Division Alignment

AL West AL West-Central AL East-Central AL East

Arizona D-Backs Kansas City Royals Chicago White Sox Baltimore Orioles
LA Angels Minnesota Twins Cleveland Indians Boston Red Sox
San Jose A’s Nashville ____ Detroit Tigers NY Yankees
Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays

NL West NL West-Central NL East-Central NL East

Colorado Rockies Austin ____ Atlanta Braves Miami Marlins
LA Dodgers Houston Astros Chicago Cubs NY Mets
SF Giants Mil. Brewers Cincinnati Reds Philadelphia Phils
San Diego Padres St. Louis Cards Pittsburgh Pirates Washington Nats

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FRANCHISE LOCATIONS
32-TEAM ASSESSMENT

Key Division of U.S.A. AL NL

1 New England 1 0
2 Middle Atlantic 2 c 3
3 East North Central 3 3
4 West North Central 2 1
5 South Atlantic 2 3
n
6 East South Central 1 0
7 West South Central 1 2 n
8 Mountain 1 1
9 Pacific 3 3
Number of Teams 16 16

Notes:
c Canadian franchise in Toronto (AL) is included in Region 2
n New franchises in Nashville (AL) and Austin (NL) and begin play in ____

(As per previous discussion, Arizona is an AL team and Houston is an NL team)

reference: U. S. Census Bureau Page 4 of 4

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How It Might Work…

• Inter-league games:
– 6 (3 home & 3 away) vs. 4 teams in a division
– Annual rotation of divisions
• Games outside division:
– 6 (3 home & 3 away) vs. 12 non-divisional teams
• Games within division:
– 22 (11 home & 11 away) vs. 3 divisional teams
• Totals: 24 + 72 + 66 = 162 games
• Eliminate the “Wild Card” games in playoffs
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What If: MLB Expanded to 36 Teams?

• Two (2) additional new teams in each league

• Logical alignment would be three 6-team
divisions in each league
• Depending on the location of the expansion
cities, they would be placed in the proper
division, based on geography.
• Allow a team with the second-best record in a
division qualify for the post-season so that four
(4) teams in each league compete.

54
How It Might Work…

• Inter-league games:
– NONE!
• Games outside division:
– 6 (3 home & 3 away) vs. 12 non-divisional teams
• Games within division:
– 18 (9 home & 9 away) vs. 5 divisional teams
• Totals: 0 + 72 + 90 = 162 games

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Future Relocation(s)

• Suppose Oakland can’t get approval from San

Francisco to build a new ballpark in San José
and instead moves to Las Vegas
– As mentioned earlier in my presentation, the
Athletics have moved twice before…
• Or maybe one of the Florida teams relocates
– Both have difficulty attracting fans, although the
Marlins have just opened a fabulous new ballpark
• Use my geographic method to decide team and
divisional alignments
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Conclusions

• Must consider population growth, density, and

demographics
• Geography matters
• Need to manage travel

Questions?
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