Name: Olivia Sandy

NRP: 3303018011
Business Assignment Week 5

Date Open High Low Close Adj Close Volume Return Return sorted
21/08/2013 37200 37700 36600 37500 31475 2374000 31180 -1
22/08/2013 37600 37600 36600 37150 31181 1125000 30215 28536
23/08/2013 37800 38300 35750 36000 30216 1827500 29795 29795
26/08/2013 36000 36400 35500 35500 29796 431500 28536 29795
27/08/2013 35300 35300 33150 34000 28537 1660000 29795 29879
28/08/2013 32500 35500 32000 35500 29796 2156000 31432 30215
29/08/2013 35600 37550 35600 37450 31433 1609000 31852 30215
30/08/2013 37000 38000 36500 37950 31853 1213500 31600 30928
02/09/2013 37500 39300 36750 37650 31601 1465500 30928 31180
03/09/2013 37650 38000 36800 36850 30929 473000 29879 31264
04/09/2013 36800 36950 35300 35600 29880 525500 30215 31432
05/09/2013 35700 36300 35300 36000 30216 615500 31264 31600
06/09/2013 36050 37250 35600 37250 31265 576000 31852 31852
09/09/2013 37300 38000 37300 37950 31853 628000 33237 31852
10/09/2013 38500 39600 38450 39600 33238 1159500 33530 33237
11/09/2013 40000 40450 38700 39950 33531 1264000 33572 33530
12/09/2013 40000 40250 39400 40000 33573 593000 34663 33572
13/09/2013 40000 41300 40000 41300 34664 720000 36342 34663
16/09/2013 41300 43300 41050 43300 36343 1248500 36090 36090
17/09/2013 43300 43900 42500 43000 36091 1297000 -1 36342

VAR 95% daily

5% is 1st lowest point from 20 days:
Let say Gudang Garam have Rp.1.000.000.000. Portfolio
-1% x 1.000.000.000 = -10.000.000 loss
So PT Gudang Garam maximum loss is -1% from the news Gudang Garam dividen loss is -0.9%
Gudang Garam Business Risk and Market Risk
In my opinion Gudang Garam in 2013 have high loss in their dividen due to the weakening of the rupiah exchange
rate. Because at that time the weather was not good, causing the quality of tobacco which is the main raw material for
Gudang Garam to decline so that when the rupiah depreciated against the US dollar, Gudang Garam had to import
tobacco which resulted in a decrease in their net profit. Also there is new regulation where tobacco companies are
obliged to present an image of the harmful effects of smoking which reduces their sales. From that case study I can
conclude market risk and business risk for gudang garam.
Solution
1. an early retirement offering policy to its employees, especially hand-rolled kretek (SKT) and operational
employees to reduce it’s operational cost when the sales is decreasing
2. Do a sponsorship or promotion to increase their sales.
3. From the case not all company loss their dividen so gudang garam can invest to that company and can gain
return for their company for their additional capital