Bucket Question

Real Money Is PAT getting converted to cash?

Real Money Is the company paying regular tax?

Coffee Can Sales Growing at > 10% CAGR

Operating Profits Growing at > 7% CAGR

ROCE > 15%
Sales CAGR ~ Profit CAGR over time
RoCE > CoC

Is Market cap increasing because of increasing P/E or increasing earnings?

Efficiency of Retained Earnin Is the company making good use of retained

Is Profit Before Tax funding fixed assets?

Value Investing Price to Earnings
PEG
Price to Book Value
Price to Sales
Earnings Yield
Dividend Payout Ratio
Dividend Yield
High FCF
FCF/Sales
Cash and Eq as a %age of Mcap

Solvency Debt to Equity Ratio

Interest Coverage Ratio
CFO > CFI + CFF
Net NPA
Capital Adequacy Ratio

Accounting Quality FCF Checks

Management Quality management paying themselves high salary

management = promoter
 Inadequate Disclosurse

Subsidiaries & joint ventures

Peer Comparison
 Receivables Days

Inventory and Receivables

Receivables Days = Receivables days * 365/Sales

Inventory Turnover=Inventory*365/(Raw material cost 5 years)

 Ideal indicators Alternate Possibilities

cCFO ~ cCPAT cCFO >> cPAT

cCFO << cPAT

cCFO growth equal to cPAT growth

large amount of cPAT or cCFO is not from a single year

Tax is the corporate tax rate at 30% Tax rate below 30%
Tax not being paid
over 5 years, 10 years, 3 years

over 5 years, 10 years, 3 years

over 5 years, 10 years, 3 years

e of increasing P/E or increasing earnings?

Earnings Growth > P/E growth

increase in market cap > retained profits

Company growth rate ~ SSGR

SSGR = NFAT * NPM * (1-DPR) - Dep
PBT/NFA > 1

Net Fixed Asset Turnover: Sales/Fixed Assets

are we buying the company at a reasonable price?

FCF is positive FCF negative: accounting fraud

FCF Change ~ CFO Change FCF is from acquisitions

FCF is from dubiuos CFO

FCF able to fund capex? FCF not used for capex

Change in acocunting policy

CWIP/Gross block (high = unsubstantiated capex)

management salary/PAT Close to limit of max from SEBI

salary did not increase when profits were down?

promoters not taking salary from company and if they do it is reasonable

promoters do not take interest from company (like rent) from separate businesses
 Unexpected smooth earnings through volatile times
Continuous history of meeting market expectation of
earnings

Decreasing Increasing

days * 365/Sales
Increasing could be because of tough environment
B2B companies do not work on advance payment basis = receivab

365/(Raw material cost 5 years)

Higher is better
Low can mean that the company is stuck in working capital
Angles to investigate
Higher interest expense
Treatment of depreciation
Are the sales bogus?
Are the CFO bogus?
company may have taken a loan mortgaging its assets with multiple banks as intermediaries as export advance
company may have shown a debt as cash flow from operations (poor accounting practice)

Tax %age may be special up to a certain year only

Is it a cyclical stock?

Is company in a commodity business?

Does the company have a monopoly?
Is the company fradulent?
Are the raw material prices increasing?

company re-rating (mid-cap to large-cap)

speculation in company stock; stock might get derated

company maybe funding subsidiaries

cash generated may not be real
company maybe doing inorganic stupidity
company maybe paying dividend to promoters
company is better off returning money to shareholders

company may need to raise debt to grow - may not be able to

grow without increasing insolvency risk or company might need to
dilute equity
company may not be making good use of debt to grow faster and
competitors may catch up
How efficiently does the company use its fixed assets to generate sales?

NFAT=Sales/Avg Fixed assets; capex = new assets + depreciation

new assets = (net block + CWIP)-(net block last year + CWIP last
year)
avg fixed assets = (net block this year + net block last year)/2
High NFAT = capital intensive company, for example: sales fals,
NFAT increases
aggressive revenue and earning recognition practice?
writing off inventory = impairment loss
Holding off on writing down inventory
company is capitalizing the operating expenses making PAT look
high as capex is not deducted from revenue

Frequent acquisitions
satyam - maytas acquisition was to fill a hole in the book where
they had bogus employees
acquisitions boost CFO; account receivables of the acquired
company flow through CFO of the acquirer; costs to generate the
receivables flow through CFI as acquisition cost

showing debt as inflow under CFO

debt classified as CFO - complex structured agreement
showing sale of business divisions as inflow under CFO

FCF given for dividends, write-off/loss of investments in subsidiary

entities
Is the company investing in subsidiaries while it is carrying debt?
Why not service the debt first?
FCF used for debt, interest expense, Dividends, increase in cash &
eq
revenue recognition policy
capitalization of expense
change in accounting years
depreciation assumptions
pension/lease assumptions
has the company stopped disclosing an important metrics
have they failed to highlight contingent liability/balance sheet
obligation like corporate guarantee given to loans for 3rd parties

Did they increase salary when profits were down?

interest free deposit to promoters to acquire property and then

rent them out to the same company
Sale/purchase to/from promoters
M&A with promoter owned entitities
Loans to promoter entitities
Deposits from promoter entities
Pledge %
Promoter Holding %
MF Holding %
FII Holding %
Promoter Salary/Net Profits
Diluted Equity/Equity in last 3 years
No related parties consolidated level
Name of party to whom loan given
Conflicts of interests between holding companies
Frequent changes in useful life of assets to reduce depreciation
and reduce losses
company selling property to promoter
company paying rent to promoters
shares of promoters
salary of promoters
delay in writeoff
advance to promoter group entity
change in promoter remuneration vs. revenue growth

How many related?

How many investments?
How many loans?
Related to proomoter?
Write-offs?
Past records?

Working capital days vs. Peers

Margin vs. Peers
Depreciation vs. Peers
Gross Block Turnover
Revenues/Capex
FCF vs. Peers
Sales CAGR better than competitors; > 15% recommended
Poor capital allocation decisions leading to value erosion
 Receivables maybe bogus
Receivables maybe classified under a different head in balance sheet
Receivables maybe being sold off

ot work on advance payment basis = receivable days important for B2B

(INR Crores/10 Millions) PAGE INDUSTRIES LTD

Narration Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13

Sales 339 492 697 876
Operating Profit 65 92 150 181
Operating Profit Margin (OPM%) 19% 19% 21% 21%
Other Income 6 12 5 8
Interest 4 7 10 12
Profit before tax (PBT) 59 88 134 166
Tax% 32% 33% 33% 32%
Net Profit after tax (PAT) 40 59 90 113
Net Profit Margin (NPM%) 12% 12% 13% 13%
Cash Profit Margin (CPM%) 3% -6% 14% 5%
10Yr Cash profit Margin (10yr CPM%) -8% 8% 8% 6%
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 30 0 123 87
Capex (NFA+WIP+Dep) 21 27 43
Total Debt (D) 55 115 76 101
Cash + Investments (CI +NCI) 6 6 5 6

Self-Sustainable Growth Rate (SSGR) 34%

PBT/Avg. NFA (<10%,>25%) 103% 134% 138%
ROE on Avg Equity (<7%, >25%) 40% 47% 54% 53%
ROCE (EBIT on Avg CE/TA) (<10%,>35%) 26% 25% 37% 36%
Incremental ROE 3Yr Rolling 48% 52%
Profit/Mcap 4% 3% 3% 3%

Net Fixed Asset Turnover (High is better) 4.4 5.3 6.5 6.6
Receivables days (Low is better) 22.0 19.2 22.9 24.2
Inventory Turnover (High is better) 153.3 138.1 134.6 136.6
Net Fixed Assets (NFA) 77.6 93.1 107.6 132.2
Capital Work in Progress (CWIP) 4.9 0.9 2.7 10.1
Share Capital 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2
Dividend Paid (Div) Without DDT 23.4 29.0 41.3 55.8
Dividend Payout (Div/PAT) 59% 50% 46% 50%
Price to earning 22.7 31.0 33.4 33.0
Mcap 899.1 1815.5 3009.5 3714.9
Cash + Investments (CI +NCI) 5.9 5.6 4.9 5.6

Total Debt (D) 54.8 115.0 75.9 100.7

Total Equity (E) 99.0 123.8 165.8 213.5
Debt to Equity ratio (D/E) 55% 93% 46% 47%
Cost of funds 12.5%
Interest outgo (Rs. Cr.) 4.1 6.8 10.1 12.1
Interest Coverage (OP/Int.Out) 9.6 8.6 9.0 9.3

Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 29.8 -0.2 122.6 87.1

Cash from Investing Activity (CFI) -20.9 -27.3 -25.3 -41.9
Cash from Financing Activity (CFF) -16.2 27.1 -96.8 -43.8
Net Cash Flow (CFO+CFI+CFF) -7.4 -0.4 0.5 1.4

Total Retained Earnings (RE) in 10 Yrs 676.0

Total increase in Mcap in 10yrs (B) 20,137.0
Value created per INR of RE (B/A) 29.8

Below Added by Kiran

Periods ### ### ### ###
cPAT 40 98 188 301
cCFO 30 30 152 239
cCFO/cPAT 0.7513254229 0.30154849 0.80891889 0.79598896

1Y 2Y 3Y
Sales CAGR 45% 43% 37%
42% 34%
26%

Operating Profit CAGR 41% 51% 41%

63% 40%
21%

PBT CAGR 50% 51% 41%

53% 37%
24%

1y 2y 3y
PAT CAGR 2% 5% 3%
8% 4%
 -1%

1Y 2Y 3Y
Value Generated per INR of retained profits 37.0263551 31.6073761 24.5942483
28.4155691 21.1655137
14.7814541

Earnings Yield 4% 3% 3% 3%
Price this year/earnings Last year 45.8 51.4 41.3
Price this year/earnings preceding year 76.0 63.4
Price this year/earnings 3 years ago 93.8
Earnings Yield from last year 2% 2% 2%
Earnings Yield from preceding year 1% 2%
Earnings Yield from 3 year ago 1%

Price to Sales 265% 369% 432% 424%

Dividend Per Share 21.0 26.0 37.0 50.0

Dividend Per Share Growth 24% 42% 35%
Dividend Payout Ratio 59% 50% 46% 50%
3 Year Dividend Payout Ratio 50% 48%
Dividend Yield 2.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.5%

Price to Book Ratio 9.1 14.7 18.2 17.4

Earnings Growth 48% 54% 25%
Sales Growth 45% 42% 26%
PEG 0.6 0.6 1.3

Interest Expense 4.12 6.84 10.05 12.09

Interest Income 6.36 12.38 5.02 7.72
Interest Income - Interest Expense 2.24 5.54 -5.03 -4.37
cash & eq as a %age of market cap 1% 0% 0% 0%
Net NPA
Capital Adequacy Ratio

Cash & cash equivalent growth

cash & cash equivalent Yield

Mcap Growth explained by P/E Growth 1Y 36% 12% -6%

Mcap Growth explained by P/E Growth 2Y 20% 6%
Mcap Growth explained by P/E Growth 3Y 15%
Mcap Growth explained by P/E Growth 4Y
Mcap Growth explained by P/E Growth 5Y
Mcap Growth explained by P/E Growth 6Y
Mcap Growth explained by P/E Growth 7Y
Mcap Growth explained by P/E Growth 8Y
Mcap Growth explained by P/E Growth 9Y

Mcap Growth explained by Earnings Growth 1Y 64% 88% 106%

Mcap Growth explained by Earnings Growth 2Y 80% 94%
Mcap Growth explained by Earnings Growth 3Y 85%
Mcap Growth explained by Earnings Growth 4Y
Mcap Growth explained by Earnings Growth 5Y
Mcap Growth explained by Earnings Growth 6Y
Mcap Growth explained by Earnings Growth 7Y
Mcap Growth explained by Earnings Growth 8Y
Mcap Growth explained by Earnings Growth 9Y

Free Cash Flow -21.5 95.7 43.8

FCF Change? 117.2 -51.9
CFO Change? 122.8 -35.5
FCF to Sales -4% 14% 5%
FCF to Market Cap -1% 3% 1%

Gross NPA
Net NPA
Total Advances
Total Provisions
Gross NPA%
Net NPA %
Provision Coverage Ratio
Total Capital
Total Risk Weighted Asset
Capital Adequacy Ratio
Tier - 1 CAR
Tier - 2 CAR
CASA Ratio
Net Interest Margin
RoA
RoE
Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Last 4 Quarters
1188 1543 1796 2129 2551 2852 3012
256 320 376 415 542 618 594
22% 21% 21% 19% 21% 22% 20%
6 8 10 24 22 36 23
15 18 19 19 18 17 29
233 293 343 395 518 606 535
34% 33% 33% 33% 33% 35% 28%
154 196 232 266 347 394 387
13% 13% 13% 13% 14% 14% 13%
2% 7% 11% 8% 8% 15%
7% 9% 9% 9% 11% 9%
75 167 219 274 453 230
48 59 24 68 64 42
163 157 95 88 69 85
3 4 9 73 285 44

42% 46% 50% 54% 62% 39%

153% 150% 158% 174% 218% 225%
53% 51% 44% 40% 41% 51%
34% 36% 37% 35% 38% 46%
53% 52% 48% 44% 41% 44%
2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1%

6.9 7.1 8.3 9.0 10.7 9.5

22.3 20.8 20.8 19.3 21.2 15.8
148.9 140.7 148.3 141.0 133.2 124.5
172.8 217.3 216.7 236.1 237.9 300.6
3.6 0.1 0.4 24.1 58.5 7.2
11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2
66.9 80.3 94.8 108.2 146.1 383.6
44% 41% 41% 41% 42% 97% FV
47.1 78.1 58.4 61.2 72.9 70.7 54.3 25
7238.4 15315.4 13515.0 16307.9 25302.1 27853.7 21036.0 9679.5
3.5 4.4 8.7 72.7 284.9 44.1 46%

163.2 157.3 94.9 87.7 68.6 84.8

289.0 386.8 529.9 665.8 847.3 775.0
56% 41% 18% 13% 8% 11%

15.3 17.7 18.9 19.5 17.7 17.2

10.1 11.1 12.3 13.7 19.6 22.9

74.8 167.0 219.2 273.6 452.8 229.7

 -48.9 -53.1 -26.1 -107.6 -238.1 192.0
-27.0 -112.9 -188.9 -154.1 -187.8 -443.3
-1.1 0.9 4.2 11.9 26.8 -21.6

### ### ### ### ### ###

454 650 882 1148 1495 1889 pbt-depreciation-interest-chang
314 481 700 974 1427 1656 capex-change in investments-oth
0.69112114 0.7395883 0.79394324 0.84809322 0.95409463 0.87673553 FCF=CFO+CFI
NCF=CFO+CFI+CFF
4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y
37% 35% 32% 30% 29% 27%
34% 33% 30% 28% 27% 25%
31% 30% 27% 25% 24% 22%
36% 33% 27% 25% 24% 22%
30% 23% 21% 21% 19%
16% 17% 18% 17%
19% 19% 17%

41% 37% 34% 30% 30% 28%

41% 37% 33% 29% 29% 27%
31% 29% 26% 23% 24% 22%
41% 33% 28% 23% 24% 23%
25% 21% 17% 21% 19%
17% 14% 19% 18%
10% 20% 18%

41% 38% 34% 31% 31% 30%

39% 35% 31% 28% 29% 27%
32% 30% 26% 24% 25% 24%
41% 33% 27% 24% 26% 24%
26% 21% 19% 22% 21%
17% 16% 21% 20%
15% 23% 21%

4y 5y 6y 7y 8y 9y
3% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2%
3% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2%
 0% -1% 0% -1% 1% 1%
1% -1% 0% -1% 1% 1%
-2% 0% -1% 1% 1%
2% -1% 2% 2%
-3% 3% 2%

4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y
33.3682719 50.1021135 29.2816051 27.1875187 32.6121281 39.8755492
32.8203232 51.3326737 28.8095969 26.7382443 32.4611294 39.9838345
34.322537 55.6906261 28.8550733 26.5972791 32.7105673 40.7817638
46.6751728 66.9586531 30.9779494 27.8439927 34.0605054 42.9915215
82.6215002 26.0583522 24.0710595 32.3548253 42.4193311
-12.58055 3.55679141 21.68459 32.2960432
20.5490288 37.1326707 58.496636
49.5493893 105.721792
-35.287951

2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1%
64.3 99.6 68.9 70.4 95.0 80.3
80.4 136.1 87.9 83.2 109.3 104.6
123.6 170.2 120.1 106.0 129.1 120.3
2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

609% 992% 753% 766% 992% 977%

60.0 72.0 85.0 97.0 131.0 343.9

20% 20% 18% 14% 35% 163%
44% 41% 41% 41% 42% 97%
46% 44% 42% 41% 41% 63%
0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 1.4%

25.0 39.6 25.5 24.5 29.9 35.9

37% 27% 18% 15% 30% 14%
36% 30% 16% 19% 20% 12%
1.3 2.8 3.2 4.1 2.4 5.2

15.29 17.65 18.86 19.49 17.7 17.22

6.49 8.19 9.59 24.29 21.55 36.43
-8.8 -9.46 -9.27 4.8 3.85 19.21
 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%

45% 59% 215% 24% 35% -30% 43%

29% 44% 28% -334% 29% 22% -20%
17% 33% 29% 24% -10% 20% 18%
15% 20% 21% 25% 22% -12% 15%
15% 14% 19% 21% 18% 17%
11% 12% 16% 18% 14%
10% 10% 13% 11%
8% 9% 9%
7% 7%

55% 41% -115% 76% 65% 130% 57%

71% 56% 72% 434% 71% 78% 120%
83% 67% 71% 76% 110% 80% 82%
85% 80% 79% 75% 78% 112% 85%
85% 86% 81% 79% 82% 83%
89% 88% 84% 82% 86%
90% 90% 87% 89%
92% 91% 91%
93% 93%

26.6 108.4 195.4 205.7 388.5 187.3

-17.2 81.8 87.0 10.3 182.9 -201.3
-12.4 92.3 52.2 54.4 179.2 -223.1
2% 7% 11% 10% 15% 7%
0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1%
Growth Trends 10Yr 7Yr 5Yr 3Yr TTM
Sales Growth
OPM

20
7743.6
37%
pbt-depreciation-interest-change in working capital-tax-other operating expense= cash flow from operations
capex-change in investments-other investments=CFI
FCF=CFO+CFI
NCF=CFO+CFI+CFF
PAGE INDUSTRIES LTD

PROFIT & LOSS 15 'Data Sheet'!A15:A999

16 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13
Sales 17 339.38 491.56 696.56 876.31
Raw Material Cost 18 112.46 239.06 294.03 386.36
Change in Inventory 19 1.63 48.16 3.92 23.80
Power and Fuel 20 3.02 4.36 5.27 6.55
Other Mfr. Exp 21 48.73 55.13 56.62 75.23
Employee Cost 22 59.34 90.87 113.84 143.59
Selling and admin 23 59.26 56.72 77.79 105.32
Other Expenses 24 -7.06 1.53 3.19 1.66
Other Income 25 6.36 12.38 5.02 7.72
Depreciation 26 8.99 9.83 10.62 11.35
Interest 27 4.12 6.84 10.05 12.09
Profit before tax 28 58.51 87.76 134.09 165.68
Tax 29 18.90 29.21 44.11 53.14
Net profit 30 39.61 58.55 89.98 112.53
Dividend Amount 31 23.42 28.99 41.26 55.75

Quarters 40 'Data Sheet'!A40:A999

41 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18
Sales 42 625.71 621.03 608.40 815.26
Expenses 43 497.26 492.19 461.62 626.01
Other Income 44 4.88 5.34 7.31 7.20
Depreciation 45 6.79 6.99 7.56 7.25
Interest 46 3.63 4.12 4.43 3.95
Profit before tax 47 122.91 123.07 142.10 185.25
Tax 48 38.85 39.68 47.88 60.82
Net profit 49 84.06 83.40 94.22 124.44
Operating Profit 50 128.45 128.84 146.78 189.25

BALANCE SHEET 55 'Data Sheet'!A55:A999

Report Date 56 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13
Equity Share Capital 57 11.15 11.15 11.15 11.15
Reserves 58 87.87 112.62 154.64 202.36
Borrowings 59 54.77 115.02 75.90 100.69
Other Liabilities 60 65.95 100.93 131.96 160.38
Total 61 219.74 339.72 373.65 474.58
Net Block 62 77.56 93.06 107.56 132.17
Capital Work in Progress 63 4.93 0.90 2.66 10.06
Investments 64 2.98 2.98 1.80 1.00
Other Assets 65 134.27 242.78 261.63 331.35
Total 61 219.74 339.72 373.65 474.58
Receivables 67 20.45 25.83 43.65 58.07
Inventory 68 94.55 165.53 174.73 237.87
Cash & Bank 69 2.95 2.58 3.12 4.55
No. of Equity Shares 70 11153874 11153874 11153874 11153874
New Bonus Shares 71 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Face value 7 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

CASH FLOW: 80 'Data Sheet'!A80:A999

Report Date 81 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12
Cash from Operating Activity 82 29.76 -0.16 122.59 87.14
Cash from Investing Activity 83 -20.92 -27.26 -25.27 -41.93
Cash from Financing Activity 84 -16.19 27.05 -96.78 -43.78
Net Cash Flow 85 -7.35 -0.37 0.54 1.43

PRICE: 90 806.05 1627.65 2698.15 3330.55

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 93 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12

Graph Data:
P/L - Annual - YoY change Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12
Sales 346 504 702 884
Sales YoY 46% 39% 26%
EPS 35.4 52.3 80.3 100.5
EPS YoY 48% 54% 25%

Capex Calculation
Depreciation 9.83 10.62 11.35
New Assets 11.47 16.26 32.01
21.30 26.88 43.36

SSGR Calculation
SSGR = NFAT*NPM*(1-DPR) – Dep 34%
Dep = Depn rate as % of net fixed assets 10%
DPR=Dividend payout Ratio=Dividend paid/PAT 48%
NPM = Net Profit margin as % of sales 13%
NFAT = Sales/Average net fixed assets 676%
Average net Fixed Assets 85.31 100.31 119.87
Average Equity 111.395 144.78 189.65
Return on average equity 104%
No. of Equity Shares 70 111539 111539 111539 111539
PRICE: 90 806.05 1627.65 2698.15 3330.55
Current Price 8
Market Cap 899.0580138 1815.460302 3009.482513 3714.853505
Share Capital 99.02 123.77 165.79 213.51
Debt 54.77 115.02 75.90 100.69
Profit 39.61 58.55 89.98 112.53
Enterprice Price (Equity+debt) 953.83 1930.48 3085.38 3815.54
Book Value 99.02 123.77 165.79 213.51

Rolling ROE calcuation

3 year return 62.71 87.02
3 year equity 129.5266667 167.69
0.484173143 0.518933747
Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 last 4 Qtr
1187.68 1543.44 1795.60 2128.53 2551.37 2852.20 3012.02
527.58 670.22 763.27 958.71 1022.71 1356.73
58.57 71.18 77.64 96.42 -63.88 160.03
8.39 9.96 10.63 11.77 13.46 15.74
106.00 140.24 167.18 170.27 177.20 198.82
188.16 258.59 312.77 375.75 406.63 467.57
159.16 213.53 241.26 289.60 316.77 342.69
0.75 1.67 1.65 4.11 9.07 12.80 2417.90
6.49 8.19 9.59 24.29 21.55 36.43 23.44
13.93 17.64 24.12 24.72 27.99 31.06 53.06
15.29 17.65 18.86 19.49 17.70 17.22 29.40
233.48 293.31 343.09 394.82 517.51 606.03 535.10
79.70 97.28 111.57 128.54 170.53 212.09 147.92
153.78 196.02 231.52 266.28 346.98 393.94 387.18
66.90 80.28 94.78 108.16 146.06 383.56 594.12

Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19

690.76 738.32 607.86 834.96 775.40 793.80
547.94 573.07 488.18 648.34 626.36 655.02
10.83 9.49 8.71 5.50 5.75 3.48
7.65 8.16 8.01 13.98 14.67 16.40
4.02 4.07 4.10 8.27 8.07 8.96
141.98 162.51 116.28 169.87 132.05 116.90
49.36 60.62 41.30 59.20 17.54 29.88
92.63 101.89 74.98 110.67 114.51 87.02
142.82 165.25 119.68 186.62 149.04 138.78

Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

11.15 11.15 11.15 11.15 11.15 11.15
277.85 375.61 518.72 654.63 836.15 763.84
163.22 157.28 94.90 87.68 68.55 84.78
233.39 279.44 321.29 400.63 496.53 490.82
685.61 823.48 946.06 1154.09 1412.38 1350.59
172.83 217.26 216.68 236.09 237.94 300.63
3.59 0.11 0.36 24.13 58.52 7.23
0.00 0.00 0.00 52.11 218.03 0.00
509.19 606.11 729.02 841.76 897.89 1042.73
685.61 823.48 946.06 1154.09 1412.38 1350.59
72.68 87.84 102.44 112.71 147.98 123.84
 362.56 443.45 540.81 622.86 567.87 750.11
3.46 4.42 8.65 20.58 66.88 44.05
11153874 11153874 11153874 11153874 11153874 11153874
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

74.75 167.00 219.17 273.59 452.77 229.71
-48.88 -53.13 -26.06 -107.56 -238.12 191.96
-26.97 -112.93 -188.88 -154.09 -187.83 -443.28
-1.10 0.94 4.23 11.93 26.82 -21.60

6489.55 13731.05 12116.90 14620.80 22684.55 24972.25

1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12

Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

1,194 1,552 1,805 2,153 2,573 2,889
35% 30% 16% 19% 20% 12%
137.3 175.0 206.7 237.8 309.8 351.7
37% 27% 18% 15% 30% 14%

13.93 17.64 24.12 24.72 27.99 31.06

34.19 40.95 -0.33 43.18 36.24 11.40
48.12 58.59 23.79 67.90 64.23 42.46

42% 46% 50% 54% 62% 39%

10% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11%
46% 44% 42% 41% 41% 63%
13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13%
741% 772% 802% 856% 952% 1028%
152.50 195.05 216.97 226.39 237.02 269.29
251.255 337.88 458.315 597.825 756.54 811.145
82% 64% 41% 34% 25% 22%
 111539 111539 111539 111539 111539 111539 111500.021
6489.55 13731.05 12116.90 14620.80 22684.55 24972.25
18866.4
7238.362302 15315.44016 13515.03759 16307.8561 25302.06124 27853.73299965 21036.04
289.00 386.76 529.87 665.78 847.30 774.99 774.99
163.22 157.28 94.90 87.68 68.55 84.78 84.78
153.78 196.02 231.52 266.28 346.98 393.94 387.18
7401.58 15472.72 13609.94 16395.54 25370.61 27938.51 21120.82
289.00 386.76 529.87 665.78 847.30 774.99 774.99

118.76 154.11 193.77 231.27 281.59 335.73

222.7666667 296.4233333 401.8766667 527.47 680.9833333 762.69
0.533128834 0.519898344 0.482171147 0.438457795 0.413509875 0.44019632266495
 Mar/10
Sales Growth
PBT Growth
Net Profit Growth
Basic Company Details Dividend Growth
Parameters Details Operating Cash Flow Growth
Company PAGE INDUSTRIES LTD Free Cash Flow Growth
Current Stock Price (Rs) 18,866
Face Value (Rs) 10.0 Operating Margin 19.2%
No. of Shares (Crore) 1.1 PBT Margin 17.2%
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 21,036 Net Margin 11.7%

Key Financials - Trend Debtor Days 22.0

Parameters Details Inventory Turnover 3.6
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 26.7% Fixed Asset Turnover 4.4
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) 29.7% Debt/Equity 0.6
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) 29.1% Debt/Assets 24.9%
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 0.2 Interest Coverage (Times) 15.2
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 45.2% Return on Equity 40.0%
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 68.6 Return on Capital Employed 40.7%
Latest P/E (x) 54.3 Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 30
 Key Ratios
0
Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
44.8% 41.7% 25.8% 35.5% 30.0% 16.3% 18.5% 19.9% 11.8%
50.0% 52.8% 23.6% 40.9% 25.6% 17.0% 15.1% 31.1% 17.1%
47.8% 53.7% 25.1% 36.6% 27.5% 18.1% 15.0% 30.3% 13.5%
23.8% 42.3% 35.1% 20.0% 20.0% 18.1% 14.1% 35.0% 162.6%
-100.5% -76718.8% -28.9% -14.2% 123.4% 31.2% 24.8% 65.5% -49.3%
-172.1% -546.0% -54.3% -39.2% 307.1% 80.2% 5.3% 88.9% -51.8%

18.7% 21.5% 20.7% 21.6% 20.8% 21.0% 19.5% 21.2% 21.7%

17.9% 19.3% 18.9% 19.7% 19.0% 19.1% 18.5% 20.3% 21.2%
11.9% 12.9% 12.8% 12.9% 12.7% 12.9% 12.5% 13.6% 13.8%

19.2 22.9 24.2 22.3 20.8 20.8 19.3 21.2 15.8

3.0 4.0 3.7 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.4 4.5 3.8
5.3 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.1 8.3 9.0 10.7 9.5
0.9 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
33.9% 20.3% 21.2% 23.8% 19.1% 10.0% 7.6% 4.9% 6.3%
13.8 14.3 14.7 16.3 17.6 19.2 21.3 30.2 36.2
47.3% 54.3% 52.7% 53.2% 50.7% 43.7% 40.0% 41.0% 50.8%
39.6% 59.6% 56.6% 55.0% 57.2% 57.9% 55.0% 58.4% 72.5%
-21 96 44 27 108 195 206 389 187
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)

Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
25% Profit Margin
80%
Check
70% Numb
20%
60% has ze
15% 50%
40%
10% 30%
5% Check for a rising trend and/or consistency. 20%
Compare with a close competitor 10%
0% 0%
Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18 Jan/10

Operating Margin PBT Margin

Net Margin

3,000
Revenue R
60%
Check for a rising trend.
2,500 50%
2,000 40%
1,500 30%
1,000 20%
500 10%
- 0%
Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18 Jan/1

700 Profit Over Time 500 Che

Check for a rising trend.
600 400 whi
500 300
400
200
300
200 100
100 -
- -100 Jan/
Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18

PBT Net Profit

Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
Operating Margin 19% 19% 21% 21% 22% 21% 21%
PBT Margin 17% 18% 19% 19% 20% 19% 19%
Net Margin 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
ROE 40% 47% 54% 53% 53% 51% 44%
ROCE 41% 40% 60% 57% 55% 57% 58%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Revenue Growth 45% 42% 26% 36% 30% 16% 19%
PBT Growth 50% 53% 24% 41% 26% 17% 15%
Net Profit Growth 48% 54% 25% 37% 27% 18% 15%

Revenue & Profit

Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
Revenue 339 492 697 876 1,188 1,543 1,796
PBT 59 88 134 166 233 293 343
Net Profit 40 59 90 113 154 196 232

Cash Flows
Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
Operating Cash Flow 30 -0 123 87 75 167 219
Free Cash Flow 30 -21 96 44 27 108 195
80%
Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
70% Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
60% has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the date
50% on the X-axis. The figures are
40% for/as on the year ending date
which for most Indian
30% companies would be 31st Marc
20% of that year
10%
0%
Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18

ROE ROCE 3,500

46%
3,000
60% Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY) 39%
Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
2,500
Compare growth rates with a close competitor.
50%
2,000
40% 26
1,500
30%
1,000
20%
500 884
10% 504 702
-
0% Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19
Revenue Growth PBT Growth Sales Sales YoY
Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow

500 Check for positive numbers and
400 which are rising over time.

300
200
100
-
-100 Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow

Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
19% 21% 22%
19% 20% 21%
13% 14% 14%

Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19

40% 41% 51%
55% 58% 72%

Mar/18 Mar/19
20% 12%
31% 17%
30% 14%

Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19

2,129 2,551 2,852
395 518 606
266 347 394

Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19

274 453 230
206 389 187
 Note: Please ignore the dates
on the X-axis. The figures are
for/as on the year ending date,
which for most Indian
companies would be 31st March
of that year

3,500 50%
46% 45%
3,000
39% 40%
2,500 35% 35%

2,000 30% 30%

26% 25%
1,500
20% 2,889 20%
19% 2,573
16% 2,153 15%
1,000 1,805
1,552 12%
10%
500 1,194
702 884 5%
504
- 0%
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Sales Sales YoY

 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 33% 49% 42% 44% 44% 43% 43% 45% 40% 48%
Change in Inventory 0% 10% 1% 3% 5% 5% 4% 5% -3% 6%
Power and Fuel 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other Mfr. Exp 14% 11% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7%
Employee Cost 17% 18% 16% 16% 16% 17% 17% 18% 16% 16%
Selling and Admin Cost 17% 12% 11% 12% 13% 14% 13% 14% 12% 12%
Other Expenses -2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Operating Profit 18% -1% 20% 15% 12% 12% 12% 10% 26% 10%
Other Income 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Depreciation 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Interest 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Profit Before Tax 17% 18% 19% 19% 20% 19% 19% 19% 20% 21%
Tax 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7%
Net Profit 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 14% 14%
Dividend Amount 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 6% 13%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
Equity Share Capital 5% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Reserves 40% 33% 41% 43% 41% 46% 55% 57% 59% 57%
Borrowings 25% 34% 20% 21% 24% 19% 10% 8% 5% 6%
Other Liabilities 30% 30% 35% 34% 34% 34% 34% 35% 35% 36%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 35% 27% 29% 28% 25% 26% 23% 20% 17% 22%
Capital Work in Progress 2% 0% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 2% 4% 1%
Investments 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 15% 0%
Other Assets 61% 71% 70% 70% 74% 74% 77% 73% 64% 77%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 9% 8% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9%
Inventory 43% 49% 47% 50% 53% 54% 57% 54% 40% 56%
Cash & Bank 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 5% 3%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that a
raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Intrinsic Value Range
PAGE INDUSTRIES LTD
Lower Higher
Remember! Give importance to a stoc
Dhandho 10,444 13,908
only "after" you have answered in "Yes
Ben Graham 9,186 15,933 (1) Is this business simple to be und
Ben Graham 2 8,379 14,319 understand this bus
DCF 5,930
Expected Return 7,879 Don't try to quantify everything. In stoc
Current Market Cap. 21,036 mathematical you are, the more simple
be your analysis and results. Great ana
the-envelope"

Also, your calculated "fair value" will

Explanation: Considering the above range, we can say that future, so don't invest your savings jus
Hero Moto's IV range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs with it. Don't look for perfection. It i
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's fine (who is looking decisions, not outcomes. Look for d
for precision?). Now, if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the higher value of the
range, it makes it overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
mber! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
er" you have answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
this business simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

y to quantify everything. In stock research, the less non-

atical you are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "back-of-
the-envelope".

your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

so don't invest your savings just because you fall in love
it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
ions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

PAGE INDUSTRIES LTD PAGE INDUSTRIES LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 300 267 Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 345 275 Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 396 282 Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 436 277 4 FY21
5 FY22 479 272 Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 527 267 Sales 19% 6 FY23
7 FY24 554 250 PBT 21% 7 FY24
8 FY25 581 235 FCF 48% 8 FY25
9 FY26 610 220 9 FY26
10 FY27 641 206 10 FY27
10 6,410 2,064 10
Intrinsic Value 10,444 Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 21,036 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV 101% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as th
number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the history
business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of r
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

PAGE INDUSTRIES LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
313 279 Year 4-6 15%
375 299 Year 7-10 10%
450 320 Discount Rate 12%
518 329
595 338
685 347
753 341
828 335
911 329
1,002 323
15,035 4,841
Intrinsic Value 13,908
Current Mkt. Cap. 21,036
Premium/(Discount) to IV 51%

use a normalized positive FCF as the starting

, without capex. Check the history of this
ng the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range
Company Name PAGE INDUSTRIES LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/19 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 287.0 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 11.8 Long-Term Growth Rate
Modified Long Term Growth Rate
Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 9,186 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 21,036 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
PAGE INDUSTRIES LTD
Mar/19

287.0
8.5
23.5

15,933
21,036

is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this num
resent, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
PAGE INDUSTRIES LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 260 5,930

21,036
Years 1-5 6-10 28%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (5,744)

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 300 15% 267
2 345 15% 275
3 396 15% 282
4 456 15% 290
5 524 15% 297
6 587 12% 297
7 657 12% 297
8 736 12% 297
9 824 12% 297
10 923 12% 297

Final Calculations
Terminal Year 942
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows 2,897
Terminal Value 3,032
Total PV of Cash Flows 5,930
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 21,036

Note: See explanation of DCF here

 Valuation
LTD

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
PAGE INDUSTRIES LTD
Particulars Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 40 59 90 113 154 196 232
Net Profit Margin 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Return on Equity 40% 47% 54% 53% 53% 51% 44%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 1,224
Current P/E (x) 53.4
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 24,470
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 7,879
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 21,036

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
266 347 394 29% 21%
0 0 0
40% 41% 51%
COMPANY NAME PAGE INDUSTRIES LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEAS
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 1.12
Face Value 10.00
Current Price 18,866.40
Market Capitalization 21,036.04

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13
Sales 339.38 491.56 696.56 876.31
Raw Material Cost 112.46 239.06 294.03 386.36
Change in Inventory 1.63 48.16 3.92 23.80
Power and Fuel 3.02 4.36 5.27 6.55
Other Mfr. Exp 48.73 55.13 56.62 75.23
Employee Cost 59.34 90.87 113.84 143.59
Selling and admin 59.26 56.72 77.79 105.32
Other Expenses -7.06 1.53 3.19 1.66
Other Income 6.36 12.38 5.02 7.72
Depreciation 8.99 9.83 10.62 11.35
Interest 4.12 6.84 10.05 12.09
Profit before tax 58.51 87.76 134.09 165.68
Tax 18.90 29.21 44.11 53.14
Net profit 39.61 58.55 89.98 112.53
Dividend Amount 23.42 28.99 41.26 55.75

Quarters
Report Date Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18
Sales 625.71 621.03 608.40 815.26
Expenses 497.26 492.19 461.62 626.01
Other Income 4.88 5.34 7.31 7.20
Depreciation 6.79 6.99 7.56 7.25
Interest 3.63 4.12 4.43 3.95
Profit before tax 122.91 123.07 142.10 185.25
Tax 38.85 39.68 47.88 60.82
Net profit 84.06 83.40 94.22 124.44
Operating Profit 128.45 128.84 146.78 189.25

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13
Equity Share Capital 11.15 11.15 11.15 11.15
Reserves 87.87 112.62 154.64 202.36
Borrowings 54.77 115.02 75.90 100.69
Other Liabilities 65.95 100.93 131.96 160.38
Total 219.74 339.72 373.65 474.58
Net Block 77.56 93.06 107.56 132.17
Capital Work in Progress 4.93 0.90 2.66 10.06
Investments 2.98 2.98 1.80 1.00
Other Assets 134.27 242.78 261.63 331.35
Total 219.74 339.72 373.65 474.58
Receivables 20.45 25.83 43.65 58.07
Inventory 94.55 165.53 174.73 237.87
Cash & Bank 2.95 2.58 3.12 4.55
No. of Equity Shares 11,153,874.00 11,153,874.00 11,153,874.00 11,153,874.00
New Bonus Shares
Face value 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13
Cash from Operating Activity 29.76 -0.16 122.59 87.14
Cash from Investing Activity -20.92 -27.26 -25.27 -41.93
Cash from Financing Activity -16.19 27.05 -96.78 -43.78
Net Cash Flow -7.35 -0.37 0.54 1.43

PRICE: 806.05 1,627.65 2,698.15 3,330.55

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12
 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

1,187.68 1,543.44 1,795.60 2,128.53 2,551.37 2,852.20
527.58 670.22 763.27 958.71 1,022.71 1,356.73
58.57 71.18 77.64 96.42 -63.88 160.03
8.39 9.96 10.63 11.77 13.46 15.74
106.00 140.24 167.18 170.27 177.20 198.82
188.16 258.59 312.77 375.75 406.63 467.57
159.16 213.53 241.26 289.60 316.77 342.69
0.75 1.67 1.65 4.11 9.07 12.80
6.49 8.19 9.59 24.29 21.55 36.43
13.93 17.64 24.12 24.72 27.99 31.06
15.29 17.65 18.86 19.49 17.70 17.22
233.48 293.31 343.09 394.82 517.51 606.03
79.70 97.28 111.57 128.54 170.53 212.09
153.78 196.02 231.52 266.28 346.98 393.94
66.90 80.28 94.78 108.16 146.06 383.56

Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19

690.76 738.32 607.86 834.96 775.40 793.80
547.94 573.07 488.18 648.34 626.36 655.02
10.83 9.49 8.71 5.50 5.75 3.48
7.65 8.16 8.01 13.98 14.67 16.40
4.02 4.07 4.10 8.27 8.07 8.96
141.98 162.51 116.28 169.87 132.05 116.90
49.36 60.62 41.30 59.20 17.54 29.88
 92.63 101.89 74.98 110.67 114.51 87.02
142.82 165.25 119.68 186.62 149.04 138.78

Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

11.15 11.15 11.15 11.15 11.15 11.15
277.85 375.61 518.72 654.63 836.15 763.84
163.22 157.28 94.90 87.68 68.55 84.78
233.39 279.44 321.29 400.63 496.53 490.82
685.61 823.48 946.06 1,154.09 1,412.38 1,350.59
172.83 217.26 216.68 236.09 237.94 300.63
3.59 0.11 0.36 24.13 58.52 7.23
52.11 218.03
509.19 606.11 729.02 841.76 897.89 1,042.73
685.61 823.48 946.06 1,154.09 1,412.38 1,350.59
72.68 87.84 102.44 112.71 147.98 123.84
362.56 443.45 540.81 622.86 567.87 750.11
3.46 4.42 8.65 20.58 66.88 44.05
11,153,874.00 11,153,874.00 11,153,874.00 11,153,874.00 11,153,874.00 11,153,874.00

10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00

Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

74.75 167.00 219.17 273.59 452.77 229.71
-48.88 -53.13 -26.06 -107.56 -238.12 191.96
-26.97 -112.93 -188.88 -154.09 -187.83 -443.28
-1.10 0.94 4.23 11.93 26.82 -21.60

6,489.55 13,731.05 12,116.90 14,620.80 22,684.55 24,972.25

1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12

PAGE INDUSTRIES LTD #REF!
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19
Sales 626 621 608 815 691 738 608 835 775 794
% Growth YOY 10% 19% 0% 2% 12% 8%
Expenses 497 492 462 626 548 573 488 648 626 655
Operating Profit 128 129 147 189 143 165 120 187 149 139
Other Income 5 5 7 7 11 9 9 6 6 3
Depreciation 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 14 15 16
Interest 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 8 8 9
Profit before tax 123 123 142 185 142 163 116 170 132 117
PBT Margin 20% 20% 23% 23% 21% 22% 19% 20% 17% 15%
% Growth YOY 16% 32% -18% -8% -7% -28%
Tax 39 40 48 61 49 61 41 59 18 30
Net profit 84 83 94 124 93 102 75 111 115 87
% Growth YOY 10% 22% -20% -11% 24% -15%
OPM 21% 21% 24% 23% 21% 22% 20% 22% 19% 17%
 Balance Sheet
PAGE INDUSTRIES LTD
Rs Cr Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
Equity Share Capital 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
Reserves 88 113 155 202 278 376 519 655 836 764
Borrowings 55 115 76 101 163 157 95 88 69 85
Other Liabilities 66 101 132 160 233 279 321 401 497 491
Total 220 340 374 475 686 823 946 1,154 1,412 1,351

Net Block 78 93 108 132 173 217 217 236 238 301
Capital Work in Progress 5 1 3 10 4 0 0 24 59 7
Investments 3 3 2 1 - - - 52 218 -
Other Assets 134 243 262 331 509 606 729 842 898 1,043
Total 220 340 374 475 686 823 946 1,154 1,412 1,351

Working Capital 68 142 130 171 276 327 408 441 401 552
Debtors 20 26 44 58 73 88 102 113 148 124
Inventory 95 166 175 238 363 443 541 623 568 750
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 22 19 23 24 22 21 21 19 21 16
Inventory Turnover 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4
Fixed Asset Turnover 4.4 5.3 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.1 8.3 9.0 10.7 9.5
Debt/Equity 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Return on Equity 40% 47% 54% 53% 53% 51% 44% 40% 41% 51%
Return on Capital Employed 41% 40% 60% 57% 55% 57% 58% 55% 58% 72%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
PAGE INDUSTRIES LTD
Rs Cr Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Trailing
Sales 339 492 697 876 1,188 1,543 1,796 2,129 2,551 2,852 3,012
% Growth YOY 45% 42% 26% 36% 30% 16% 19% 20% 12%
Expenses 274 400 547 695 931 1,223 1,419 1,714 2,010 2,234 2,418
Material Cost (% of Sales) 33% 49% 42% 44% 44% 43% 43% 45% 40% 48% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% expense items. For manufacturing firms,
Other Mfr. Exp 14% 11% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 17% 18% 16% 16% 16% 17% 17% 18% 16% 16% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 17% 12% 11% 12% 13% 14% 13% 14% 12% 12%
Operating Profit 65 92 150 181 256 320 376 415 542 618 594
Operating Profit Margin 19% 19% 21% 21% 22% 21% 21% 19% 21% 22% 20%
Other Income 6 12 5 8 6 8 10 24 22 36 23
Other Income as % of Sales 1.9% 2.5% 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.1% 0.8% 1.3% 0.8%
Depreciation 9 10 11 11 14 18 24 25 28 31 53
Interest 4 7 10 12 15 18 19 19 18 17 29
Interest Coverage(Times) 15 14 14 15 16 18 19 21 30 36 19
Profit before tax (PBT) 59 88 134 166 233 293 343 395 518 606 535
% Growth YOY 50% 53% 24% 41% 26% 17% 15% 31% 17%
PBT Margin 17% 18% 19% 19% 20% 19% 19% 19% 20% 21% 18%
Tax 19 29 44 53 80 97 112 129 171 212 148
Net profit 40 59 90 113 154 196 232 266 347 394 387
% Growth YOY 48% 54% 25% 37% 27% 18% 15% 30% 14%
Net Profit Margin 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 14% 14% 13%
EPS 35.4 52.3 80.3 100.5 137.3 175.0 206.7 237.8 309.8 351.7 347.2
% Growth YOY 48% 54% 25% 37% 27% 18% 15% 30% 14%
Price to earning 22.8 31.1 33.6 33.1 47.3 78.5 58.6 61.5 73.2 71.0 54.3
Price 806 1,628 2,698 3,331 6,490 13,731 12,117 14,621 22,685 24,972 18,866
Dividend Payout 59.1% 49.5% 45.9% 49.5% 43.5% 41.0% 40.9% 40.6% 42.1% 97.4%
Market Cap 903 1,823 3,022 3,730 7,268 15,379 13,571 16,375 25,407 27,969
Retained Earnings 16 30 49 57 87 116 137 158 201 10
Buffett's $1 Test 31.5

48% 54% 25% 37% 27% 18% 15% 30% 14%

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS
Sales Growth 26.7% 22.3% 19.2% 16.7%
PBT Growth 29.7% 24.0% 21.0% 20.9%
PBT Margin 19.1% 19.5% 19.6% 20.0%
Price to Earning 51.1 60.5 68.6 68.6

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7 to
10 years) growth numbers.
 Cash Flow Statement
PAGE INDUSTRIES LTD
Rs Cr Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 30 -0 123 87 75 167 219 274 453 230 1,656
% Growth YoY -101% ### -29% -14% 123% 31% 25% 65% -49%
Cash from Investing Activity -21 -27 -25 -42 -49 -53 -26 -108 -238 192 -397
Cash from Financing Activity -16 27 -97 -44 -27 -113 -189 -154 -188 -443 -1,244
Net Cash Flow -7 -0 1 1 -1 1 4 12 27 -22 15
CFO/Sales 9% 0% 18% 10% 6% 11% 12% 13% 18% 8%
CFO/Net Profit 75% 0% 136% 77% 49% 85% 95% 103% 130% 58%
Capex** - 21 27 43 48 59 24 68 64 42
FCF 30 -21 96 44 27 108 195 206 389 187 1,260
Average FCF (3 Years) 260
FCF Growth YoY -172% -546% -54% -39% 307% 80% 5% 89% -52%
FCF/Sales 0 -0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FCF/Net Profit 1 -0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range
Company Name PAGE INDUSTRIES LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/19 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 287.0 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 10.3 Long-Term Growth Rate
Modified Long Term Growth Rate
Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 8,379 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 21,036 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
PAGE INDUSTRIES LTD
Mar/19

287.0
8.5
20.7

14,319
21,036

is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this num
resent, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget

Consistent Compounders

bajaj finance
asian paints
hdfc bank
kotak mahindra
pidilite
ITC
Page industries
abbott india
nestle
lal path lab
berger
relaxo
divis
eicher
bajaj auto
naukri
titan
Ambit/Old CC

axis bank
icici bank
marico
bata
v-guard
wonderla

cadila
tcs
tech mahindra
godrej consumer
emami
lic housing finance
pnb housing finance
motherson sumi
eclerx
amara raja
sun tv
zee tv
cera

Little Champions

caplin point
alkyl amines
mas financial services
gmm pfaudler
lumax industries
ppap
v-mart
ultramarine
dcb bank
garware fibers
la opala
sterling tools
astral polyteknik
suprajit
radio city

Utility Value
RECLTD
NMDC
NALCO
PFC
NTPC
BEL

MOIL
Castrol

power grid
cochin shipyard
SBI
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation

Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies tend
to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios. Also
seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe balance
sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years earnings growth
rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the consistency in such
growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average" growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company, look
at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of operations
for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent earnings
and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing significant
volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad for
an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

1900
1400
850
1050
1259
160
16000
13000
13000
1250
370
530
1850
13000
2100
1800
800
 350
290
250
1050
150
110

240
1600
500
500
160
200
150
56
350
400
300
120
1700

300
1500
450
1900
750
120
1400
120
62
1200
130
110
700
105
13
 85
60
26
75
75
55

90
100

130
220
150
high valuation at close to 1500, look at closer to 1250

grossly overvalued at 700, can consider at 530

fair price

MASSIVE OVERVALUATION AT 2100

NOT TRACKING
massive overvaluation at 3100
NOT TRACKING
look at it at 120 only. Massively overvalued at 165
massive overvaluation at 1600, look at it 3-digits only

NOT TRACKING
MASSIVE OVERVALUATION AT 850