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For linear calibration curves, two kinds of lower limits pected to lead to detection; this is the limit at which a given
may be connected to the notion of confidence limits- analytical procedure may be relied upon to lead to detection;
a decision limit, the lowest signal that can be distin-
guished from the background and a detection limit, and A determination limit, L,, the level at which the measure-
the content under which, a priori, any sample may ment precision will be satisfactory for quantitative determina-
erroneously be taken for the blank. From a few tion.
algebraical and computational developments, several We will show how estimates of the decision and detection
practical rules are deduced to lower these limits. limits may be introduced by considering the confidence limits
The influence of the precision of the analytical method,
the number of standards, the range of their contents, of the linear calibration curve. The dependence of these
the various modes of their repartition, and the rep- limits upon the standards will thereby be made explicit.
lication of measurements on the unknown sample are
studied from a statistical point of view.
DECISION AND DETECTION LIMITS-A NEW APPROACH
EXTERNAL STANDARDS are of very common use in analytical In the analytical methods of interest here, the response
practice. In many methods, e.g., as in X-ray spectrochemical signals of a certain number of standards are measured and a
analysis, the analyst used a linear calibration curve obtained straight line (the regression line) is passed through the repre-
from measurements made on these standards, to estimate the sentative points. This line is an estimate of the true calibra-
concentration of the unknown. Obviously the sensitivity of tion line. It may be predicted that any new standard will
his method may be enhanced by a judicious choice of stan- give a signal falling in the neighborhood of this obtained line.
dards, but the quantitative estimate of this enhancement is not At this point two questions may arise:
straightforward. The various definitions of the detection Above which level are the signals significantly different
limits found in the literature, although having different ad- from the background?
vantages do not explicitly include this influence. Above which concentration is a confusion with the nul con-
Linning and Mandel (1) have presented a very interesting centration unlikely ?
discussion on the determination of the precision of an ana- To seek an answer, let us scrutinize what the expression “in
lytical method involving a calibration curve. They emphasize the neighborhood of” really implies. The representative
that, because there is always some scatter in the calibration point of a measured signal does not fall exactly on the line for
data, the precision of analysis for an unknown will be poorer two independent reasons: the drawn calibration line does
than indicated from several repeat determinations on the same not exactly coincide with the true calibration line but is only an
sample. Various authors have proposed an objective way to estimate (this estimate is based on a limited number of stan-
calculate the detection limit of an analytical determination. dards); and for a given content, the corresponding response
They suggest that a signal higher than the standard deviation signal does not assume a fixed value but is randomly distrib-
of the background multiplied by a conventionally chosen uted around a mean value, and this distribution is not ex-
factor (usually 3), should be considered as characteristic of a actly known. In order to make precise the combined effects
detectable amount of the element to be analyzed. Kaiser, in of these two uncertainties, one due to the insufficiency of our
several papers (2-4) develops this concept at length and pro- information, and the other to a lack of perfect reproductivity
poses to work at the confidence level of 99.86%, which cor- inherent to the method, four basic hypotheses are necessary.
responds to a value of 3 for the factor. First, the standards are supposed to be independent. Prac-
B. Altshuler and B. Pasternak ( 5 ) have connected the notion tically, this means that they should be prepared separately,
of detection limits with the statistical concepts of the errors of i.e., in such a way that they will differ in their preparation, as
the first and second kind; these concepts will be also used in much from each other as from the samples to be analyzed.
the present text. A review of the published definitions of the This condition is not so easily met as seems at first sight.
limits for qualitative detection and quantitative determination Second, the variance of the error distribution of the signals
has been done by L. A. Currie (6),who proposes to introduce around their expectation is supposed to remain constant,
three specific levels: A decision limit to which corresponds a Practically, this means that the scatter of the signals does not
critical level L,, the net signal level (instrument response) depend on the contents, in the studied range of these contents.
above which an observed signal may be recognized reliably Third, the contents of the standards are supposed to be ac-
enough to be detected; at this limit, one may decide whether or curately known.
not the result of an analysis indicates presence; A detection Fourth, it is assumed that the observed signals have a
limit, LD,the “true” net signal level which may be a priori ex- gaussian distribution around their expectation. Although
this hypothesis is very widely accepted, it is not certain that it
C.E.T.I.S. is always correct. On the contrary, K. Behrends (7) has
Analytical Chemistry Section. shown that the error distribution definitely is not gaussian in a
number of cases. But, although another type of distribution
(1) F. J. Linning and J. Mandel, ANAL. CHEM., 36 (13), 25A (1964). would yield somewhat different numerical results than those
(2) H. Kaiser, 2.Anal. Chem., 149,46 (1956). presented here, it would probably not significantly modify the
(3) Zbid., 209, 1 (1965). main conclusions.
(4) Zbid., 216, 80 (1966).
(5) B. Altshuler and B. Pasternak, Health Phys., 9,293 (1963).
(6) L. A. Currie, ANAL. CHEM., 40,586 (1968). (7) K. Behrends, Z . Anal. Chem., 235, 391 (1967).
0 Contents
Figure 1. The linear calibration line, with its upper and lower confidence limits. yc is the
decision limit and X D the detection limit, as explained in text
Starting from these hypotheses, formulas can be established yc is then the lowest measurable signal: if we are not
from which several conclusions may be deduced, as will be ready to take a risk greater than a % to state that the element
shown in the next paragraphs. The considerations upon is present when it is absent (Le., to take a wrong decision more
which the reasoning will be based are as follows : than a % of the time) we must decide that any signal under y c
On either side of the regression line, two confidence limits must be disregarded. It is then clear that yc corresponds to
may be drawn, with an a priori chosen level of Confidence, Lc as defined by L. A. Currie. More exactly, yc is the esti-
which we will note as 1-a-@,a and @ having prefixed small mate of L, which may be obtained with the knowledge at
values, of the order of a few percent (see Figure 1). The re- hand. yc could also be called the reading threshold, an ex-
gression line and its two confidence limits represent a graphic pression proposed by H. Kaiser in a n article published while
synthesis of our knowledge about the relationship between con- the present paper was in press [H. Kaiser, ANAL.CHEM., 42
tent and signal. With it we may predict that an as yet un- (4),26A (1970)l.
explored content will yield a signal falling inside the con- Hence, a measurement being made, we decide whether the
fidence band. We will do this prediction with I-a-@ prob- sample may be a blank or not. (The blank being a sample
ability; if we did a series of such predictions and then made which is identical, in principle, to the samples of interest, ex-
the measurements, we would observe that, in the long run, cept that the substance sought is absent, or in such minute
we would be right 1-a-@ of the time; a % of the points quantity that it will give signals not higher than the back-
would fall above the higher limit, and @ %under the lower ground). Before making any measurement, on the other
limit. The width of the confidence band depends on: the hand, we can state that the lowest content we may distinguish
dispersion of signals for a given content, the knowledge we from zero is x D ,the abscissa corresponding to y c on the lower
have of that dispersion and the degree of uncertainty about confidence limit. Indeed, with the knowledge in our pos-
the true position of the calibration line. session, when we measure an unknown with a content lower
The confidence limits, then, do not represent the dispersion than x D , we run a risk higher than @ to obtain a signal lower
of signals but our capacity to predict likely values for signals, than yc, and hence to state that it is a blank. xD is then our
taking into account the actual knowledge we possess of the estimate of the “limit of guarantee for purity,” as defined by
case. Kaiser (3) which in turn is equivalent to the “minimum detect-
The confidence band may also be used in reverse; for a mea- able true activity” of Altshuler and Pasternak ( 5 ) and to the
sured value y of the signal on a sample of unknown content “detection limit” of Currie (6).
(see Figure 1) we may predict the range of this content. The It is perhaps not useless to remark that yc and x D have not a
intersection of a horizontal line through y with the two con- fixed value. For a given method and a given number of stan-
fidence limits will define this range xmax-xmin, again with 1- dards they will vary because, first a and @ may be chosen at
a-@probability. This, incidentally, is a valid method to esti- will, according to the acceptable levels of risk one is ready to
mate confidence limits of contents corresponding to a given run to derive false conclusions, and second, by making a
signal. In particular, for a measured signal equal to yc (see second series of standards, identical to the actual series, we
Figure l), the lower limit of content is zero. Signals equal to would obtain signals differing at random from the actual
or lower than yc have a non-negligible probability to be due to signals. The regression line and the confidence limits we
a sample with a nul concentration, and hence we cannot dis- would then draw would not exactly coincide with the actual
tinguish, with such signals, whether or not the sought element lines, and yc and x D would be somewhat different. In other
is really present or not. words, y c and x D are random variables and estimates only.
QIII =
(XD - 3)’
MATHEMATICAL DEVELOPMENTS 2(Xi - R)2
Notations. The following notations have already been n = number of replicates on each unknown sample.
introduced: a,a, yc, X D . We will also use:
Equations of yc and y D . The equations of the upper and
Yo = estimate of the expectation of the response signal for lower curves of Figure 1 (Le., the confidence limits) are
a blank ( x = 0) ( y o is the intersection of the calibra- derived [see (8) for instance] by considering that any value y
tion line with the axis of ordinates) corresponding to a given value of x has a gaussian distribution
y D = signal corresponding to X D on the calibration line around its calculated value Y. The confidence limits at any
xc = abscissa corresponding to yc on the calibration line point x are then expressed by
N = number of standards
x i = concentration of the element of interest in the ith y = g + b(x - R) f tdV[yl (12)
standard (i = 1,N)
N t corresponding to a probability of 1 - a for the upper limit
Z: = the summation sign; stands for
i-1
-
and 1 p for the lower limit. The variance of y , V b ] ,is the
sum of the variance of Y plus the residual variance
R = mean; R = Z x i / N
x l = lowest concentration within the series of standards
X N = highest concentration within the series of standards
V(y) = V[B + b(x - + u 2 R)I (13)
element of interest measured for the ith standard In particular, for x = 0, the upper limit will be
g = mzan; g = Zyi/N
b = angular coefficient of the regression line, whose equation
is :
yc = B - bn + st1-a
d + 1+
1 -
N
R2
s2 = qyi - Yi)2/(N - 2); (6) (8) K. A. Brownlee, “Statistical Theory and Methodology in
Science and Engineering,” John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York,
s is the estimate of the residual standard deviation N. Y.,1960.
19
18
17
16
15
14
I I I
x1 XN
13
Figure 2. Four types or repartition of the standards
A. Equidistant or linear
B. Parabolic 12
C. In two values
D. In three values
11
46
LL
62
LO
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
2L
I I I I ! I 1
0 6 08 1 2 L 6 0 1 0 10 LO
R
small, that is unless all the observed signals fall neatly on the
regression line. Let us note that, when a “blank” is available,
x1will be very small (it will never be exactly equal to zero) and (the developments are straightforward and too long to be
the range ratio will take a very high value. For all practical given here). From this equation it will be clear that if An is
purposes, the right extremity of the graphs ( R = 20) may be not too far from 1.5/N, QIII will be conspicuously smaller
used in this case. than unity; hence, the exact coincidence of R and x D is not re-
quired.
The influence of R on Q is not so readily computed. It may
Replication on the Unknown. By making n replicates on the
be said however, that this influence will be small as long as R
unknown sample, the residual variance is divided by n and P
remains in the neighborhood of x D , and nil when the two co-
must be replaced by P,, with
incide.
Modes of Repartition of Standards. Very often, N is
k e d by economical considerations, various conditions de- P, = t +
n
+ -N1+ R2
Z ( X ~- 2)’
termine the value of XIand x N , and s is made as small as prac-
tically possible by a careful preparation of the standards and a It should be emphasized that this equation applies to repli-
good checking of the measurements. When N, R , and s are cates which may really be considered as “independent” from
fixed, however, one still has the liberty to distribute the Xs: in each other. It is readily seen that
the manner best suited for his purposes. Generally, two aims
are pursued: first, to check the linearity of the content/ p,2 = p2 - (1 - +)t2
may be as high as 30% when the range ratio is small and re- Hence, the effect of replication on Y D will be about the same as
mains of the order of 10 to 15 % when this ratio tends to in- the effect on ye.
finity. But unfortunately, this disposition is impossible to A further advantage of replication is that it will yield esti-
adopt in practice because there would not be any control on mates of the residual variance. It will then be possible to test
linearity and because any error on the standard at xN would be whether this variance remains constant, as supposed in the
impossible to assess. present developments; if it does, a better estimate of this vari-
As an alternative, we have studied what appears to be the ance may be obtained and thus a t with more degrees of
best substitute, the three values distribution, as illustrated at freedom may be used, and this smaller t will also contribute
Figure 2 0 , where there is a check on linearity and on the ab- to diminish ye and x D .
sence of gross errors. The values of P obtained from Equa-
tion 23 with this disposition are plotted as plain curves on CONCLUSIONS
Figures 4 and 5 . As a comparison, the values of P correspond-
ing to the parabolic distribution with y = 2 are given as dotted The definition of the decision and detection limits is here
curves. Computations have shown that this parabolic dis- attached to the concept of confidence limits. This presents
tribution yields a lower P than the equidistant distribution the advantage that the influence of the standards on the semi-
Efficient utilization of thevast amount of data produced The need to efficiently utilize the resulting data at a speed
by a continuously scanning mass spectrometer coupled comparable to that at which they are acquired made it neces-
to a gas chromatograph required the development of
novel data processing techniques. One of the most sary to develop entirely new approaches to this problem.
useful is the display of the change in abundance of One approach was the computerized searching of reference
certain ions during the gas chromatogram (called mass spectra files (2-4). These techniques relieve the chemist
“mass chromatogram”). This technique permits de- from a great deal of routine work but, because of the limited
tection of the presence or absence of homologous number of spectra in the reference file (ea. 7500 are now avail-
series of compounds as well as specific substances of
known or predictable mass spectra. The selection of able), search results sometimes do not indicate a definite com-
the m / e values to be plotted can be based on a knowl- pound. Frequently, the suggestions of such a library search,
edge of the chemical system under investigation or can even though not conclusive, aid in the manual identification
be supported by an evaluation of the data itself. Ap- of the spectra (2-4). In the course of using these library
plications of these approaches to geochemical and
biomedical problems are discussed. search techniques for an extended time, several other ap-
proaches were developed for certain problems presented by
THEDESIRABILITY of obtaining mass spectral information on
practically all components of a complex mixture led to the (2) R. A. Hites and K. Biemann in “Advances in Mass Spectrom-
etry,” Vol. 4, E. Kendrick, Ed., The Institute of Petroleum,
design of a gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer system London, 1968, p 37; presented at the International Mass Spec-
which uses a computer to continuously and automatically trometry Conference, Berlin, September 1967.
record mass spectra of the gas chromatographic effluent (I). (3) R. A. Hites, Ph.D. Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Tech-
nology, Cambridge, Mass., 1968.
NIH predoctoral fellow 1966-68. (4) R. A. Hites, H. S. Hertz, and K. Biemann, Massachusetts In-
stitute of Technology, Cambridge, Mass., unpublished work,
(1) R. A. Hites and K. Biemann, ANAL.CHEM.,40, 1217 (1968). 1969.