Lecture – 3: Areal Estimation of Precipitation

1. Introduction:

One important aspect of hydrologic modeling is the estimation of the total precipitation
and its distribution within a watershed. This problem is commonly referred to as “areal
estimation of precipitation” and is best described as follows:

Given the coordinates of m precipitation stations along with their respective recorded
precipitation values ( Pi ; i =1,…, m ), how can we determine the area-averaged ( Pavg )
precipitation from these limited stations?

This problem is illustrated below, where Pavg across the entire basin has to be estimated
from measured P1 , P2 , P3 , and P4 .

y
Basin
Precipitation
Gaging Station

S3
S4

S2

S1

Outflow
Point
x

We will discuss four methods:

1) Arithmetic Average, 2) Theissen Polygons, 3) Isohyetal Method, and 4) Grid Method.

2. Arithmetic Average:

The simplest approach is to assume that

∑P i
P1 + P2 + P3 + P4
Pavg = i =1
= ;
m 4

This method will give reasonable results if the variability among Pi is not too large. A
“rule of thumb” is that if the standard deviation of Pi is < 10% of Pavg , then the arithmetic
average will be an accurate estimator of Pavg .

The standard deviation ( σ p ) is given by

∑ (P − P )
m
2
i avg
σp = i =1
m

where Pavg is given by the arithmetic average.

σp
Hence, the arithmetic average will be accurate when <0.1.
Pavg

3. Theissen Polygons:

The Theissen polygon method assumes that each precipitation gage does not get the same
weight as in the arithmetic method.

m
Pavg = ∑ wi Pi
i =1

m
where ∑ w =1.
i =1
i The Theissen polygon method REDUCES to the arithmetic method if

1
wi = .
m

In the Theissen polygon method,

Ai
wi = ; where
AT
AT = Total basin or watershed area.
Ai = Area defined by the Theissen polygons.

To determine Ai , use the following procedure:

1. Join adjacent station locations with straight lines

2. Take the PERPENDUCALR BISECTORS to those lines.
3. Define the polygons bounding each station and compute its area.

y
Basin
Precipitation
Gaging Station
A3
S3
S4
A4
S2
A2

S1
A1

Outflow
Point
x

If we apply this algorithm to each of the example shown in the INTRODUCTION

section, we obtain the above figure. The areas A1 … A4 are shaded. The total area is
AT = A1 + A2 + A3 + A4 .

How to compute the polygon areas becomes a major challenge in this method.

4. Isohyetal Method

The basic formulation is also

m m
Pavg = ∑ wi Pi , where ∑ w =1 i
i =1 i =1

but the weights are defined by the contour map area as shown below and Pi is the
representative contour.
 y
Basin
Precipitation
Gaging Station

S3
S4
A1 600
A2 S2

300 S1
400
500 Outflow
Point
x

300 + 400
A1 × 300 + A2 × + ....
Pavg = 2
AT
where the 300, 400, …. are contour lines of precipitation.