International Conflict

AND WAR
Types of Wars, Causes

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Explaining International Conflict
• Con-Fligo (Latin) = Strife
• Conflict: a struggle in which the aims is to
achieve goals and simultaneously to
neutralize, injure or eliminate rivals”
• Conflict happens because:
– Strive to acquire incompatible goals
– at the same time
– Over an available set of scarce resources

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 Dynamics & Stages of Conflicts
• LATENT CONFLICT: Divergence of
interests are perceived but actors are unwilling
or unable to articulate the existing of conflict.
• MANIFESTATION: At least one of
actors articulate its incompatible interests and
intention to protect them against other party.
• ESCALATION: All conflicting parties try to
achieve their incompatible goals. Sub-phases: (1)
Discussion; (2) Polarization; (3) Isolation.
• OUTBREAK OF VIOLENCE: Conflict
becomes destructive; efforts to neutralize, injure
or eliminate rivals.
• STALEMATE / DEADPOINT:
Situation when neither conflict party is able to
end conflict in his favour.
• DE-ESCALATION: Decreasing the
destructive power of conflict, a greater
willingness to search compromise solutions.
• RESOLUTION & POST-CONFLICT
ARRANGEMENT: Peace bulding restore
relations between the parties, the objective is to
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restore cooperation and peace.
 Intensity of Armed Conflict
• Minor armed conflicts - conflicts with
more than 25 deaths but fewer than
1000 for the year and for the duration
of the conflict

• Intermediate armed conflicts -

conflicts with more than 25 deaths and
• Uppsala Conflict
Data Program: fewer than 1000 for a year, but more
• Minor Armed than 1000 for the duration of the
Conflict conflict
• Intermediate Armed
Conflict
• Wars - conflicts with more than 1000
• Wars
battle-related deaths in one year.
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 Major War
Event From To Low High
• Warring States Era, China BC BC 10 m 10 m
475 221
An Shi Rebellion, China 756 763 36 m 36 m
Mongol Conquests, Europe, 1207 1279 30 m 60 m
Asia
Thirty Years War 1618 1648 3m 11.5 m
Napoleonic Wars 1804 1815 3.5 m 16 m
Taiping Rebellion, China 1851 1864 20 m 50 m
US Civil War 1861 1865 618,000 970,000

Russian Civil War 1917 1921 5m 9m

WW I (high includes Spanish 1914 1918 15 m 66 m
Flu) 6
 More Major War
Event From To Low High

Chinese Civil War 1945 1949 1.3 m 6. 1 m

WW II 1939 1945 60 m 72 m
Viet Nam War 1945 1975 2.5 m 5m
Korean War 1950 1953 2.5 m 3.5 m
Nigerian Civil War 1967 1970 1m 1m
Afghan Civil War 1979 Present 1.5 m 2.0 m
Iran-Iraq War 1980 1988 1.0 m 1.0 m
Congo Civil War 1994 1997 800,000 800,000
Second Congo War 1998 2003 3.8m 13.8
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Types of Wars
• Definition: When is it a war?
– armed conflict between states,
governments, societies and informal
paramilitary groups characterized by
extreme violence, aggression, destruction,
and mortality, using regular or irregular
military forces.
• Hegemonic war: War for the control of
World Order
– World War, Global war, Systemic War
– Threat to entire civilization
• Total War: Conquer and Occupy
– Conquer capital city & replace government
– Evolution from Napoleonic to WWII
• Conscription to Industrialization effec ts
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– Legitimate targets: army & civilians.
Types of War
• Limited War: objective short of
surrender & occupy territory
– Eg: US led war against Iraqi in 1991.
– Border wars: Eg. Russia’s vs Ukraine in
Crimea
– Raids: - single action campaigns.
• Eg: Israel attacked Syria 2007 to stop
developing nuclear weapon.
• Grey area war /non war as destruction is limited
and quick.
– Repeated Raids = Low-intensity conflict

• Civil War: factions within a state

– New govt. or new state (secessionist)
– Most brutal form of war
• Some based on ethnicity, some not.
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Types of War
• Guerrilla War:
– war without front lines – keep moving.
– Irregular forces operate in the midst of, and
often hidden or protected by civilian
populations. – victimize the civilians.
– Not to confront but harass gradually to
limit its operation and effectively liberate
territory from its control.
– Counterinsurgency – efforts to combat a
guerilla army.

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 The Human Cost of War
• Crops, land and environment are destroyed.
• Destruction of food stores, shops and property.
• Inflation increases dramatically at times of conflict leading to poverty
for most of the population.
• People are forced to flee and become refugees or internally
displaced.
• Much trade and small business ceases.
• Governments stop spending on social needs and divert funds to
military hardware.
• Roads and means of travel are often dangerous.
• It can be difficult to get access for emergency relief.
• Child Soldiers - Young people are forced to become soldiers.

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Effects of War
• Psychological Trauma: Theory can
never explain
– Professionals army
– Irregular Army, paramilitia and child
soldiers
– Civilians
– Broken Family
– Women & Child

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 HEALING
• Post-war reconciliation important for
Transitional Govts.
– Opposing Factions
– Economic Reconstruction

• Security Sector Reform (S.S.R)

– Disarmament, demobilization and Reintegration
(D.D.R)

• Truth Commission's
– Good and bad

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Causes of War: INDIVIDUAL
• Realism: Rational decision of national leaders
– Cost/benefit analysis: can achieve more in war than in
peace ?

• Deviation from rationality:

– Cognitive Bias
– Group-think

• Education and Mentality of Population

– Nationalism, Ethnic hatred, innate tendencies

• Issues
– Perception of Injustice
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Causes of War: Domestic
Level
• Ideology: Capitalist vs. Communism
– Rich Industrialized vs. Poor agrarian
• Hunter-gatherer societies were much prone to warfare
than today’s societies.

• Democracies vs. Authoritarian

– Democratic Peace Theory
– Domestic political parties influence war

• Cant tell for certain which society would go to

war

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Causes of War: Interstate
Level
• Power relations and Power
Transition Theory
– Power Transition Theory:
conflicts generate large war at
times when power is relatively
equally distributed and a rising
power is challenging a declining
hegemon.

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 Causes of War
• Global Level: Cyclic wars
– Long Economic Waves (50years)
– Hegemon Stability (100years)

• Global Level: Linear long-term change

– War & military force are becoming obsolete in today’s interdependent world
– Today’s military tech is too powerful & destructive to use in real war.

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 Just War Theory: When is a
War Just?
• In the Middle Ages St.Thomas Aquinas developed the
“Just War Theory” not to justify war but to limit its scope
and methods.
1. The cause must be just.
2. It must be undertaken by a legitimate authority
3. The intention must be right.
4. It must be a last resort.
5. There must be a declaration of war.
6. There must be reasonable hope of success.
7. The good that it hopes to achieve must outweigh the evil
produced (the criteria of proportionality).
8. Non-Combatants must be immune from attack. 18