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Table of Contents
2 • What is 5G?
• Network Architecture: 4G LTE vs. 5G
• 5G Standards Roadmap
• 5G Deployments – Country Comparison
• The Current and Future 4G Environment
5G Capabilities and Implications for AMT
3 • 5G Capabilities, Characteristics and Potential Impacts
• Spectrum Considerations
• American Tower Positioning
3
Historical U.S. Wireless Network Overview
Mobile Data Usage Trends
Historical U.S. Mobile Data Traffic Growth (petabytes per month)
4,787
19M 5G enabled
smartphones
sold in 2019
2,905
iPad (1st generation)
released; First 4G
networks deployed
2,293
500 millionth iPhone
iPhone (1st sold
generation) Motorola DROID
923 1,342
released launched
568
200 318
9 15 26 44 107
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Notes: 2007-2020 U.S. mobile data traffic assumed to comprise 90% of North America (U.S. & Canada) traffic
Sources: Cisco VNI, 2006-2016; 2014-2015 figures provided by Cisco VNI Feb 2017; Forbes; 2017-2020 figures provided by Ericsson Mobility Report (latest
Nov 2020), Altman Solon Research & Analysis 5
Mobile Data Usage Trends
Growth in usage has been driven by technology and device evolution
U.S. share of device connectivity standards (% of devices) vs.
Avg. Monthly Usage per Smartphone Subscriber (MB) T-Mobile and Verizon have
not shut down 2G yet, AT&T
100% shut down in Jan’17
12,326
80%
8,774
60%
2G 7,312
3G
5,954
40%
3,405
20%
1,497
2,451
4G
948
613
34 55 90 149 339 5G
0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Notes: 2007-2020 U.S. mobile data traffic assumed to comprise ~90% of North America (U.S. & Canada) traffic
Sources: Cisco VNI, 2006-2016; Forbes; 2017-20 Figures provided by Ericsson Mobility Report Nov’20, Altman Solon Research & Analysis 6
Network Spending and Capital Intensity
Historical tower leasing costs per GB of U.S. Mobile Data Traffic have declined
at a 35% CAGR
$76.93
$26.84
$17.08
$10.92
$7.01
$3.19 $2.09 $1.58 $1.15 $0.76 $0.61 $0.47 $0.38 $0.31
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Investments in tower equipment and technology such as carrier aggregation have enhanced
mobile networks’ ability to support exponential growth in mobile data traffic
Notes: (1) 2006-2014 U.S. mobile data traffic assumed to comprise 90% of North America (U.S. & Canada) traffic. Annualized year-end monthly rates.
(2) Tower revenue includes U.S. property revenue generated by AMT, CCI and SBAC.
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Sources: Cisco VNI, 2006-2017; Ericsson Mobility Report; Forbes; Wall Street research; Altman Solon Research & Analysis
Network Spending and Capital Intensity
Historical U.S. Carrier Investment: Wireless Capex and Spectrum ($ in billions)
3G launch 4G launch
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E
4G Coverage Capacity
5G Coverage
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Network Spending and Capital Intensity
Capital Intensity (1) has been steady as wireless network operators have
invested across their networks to support coverage and capacity needs
Estimated U.S. Wireless Macro Cell Sites
(Big 3 Carriers(2))
Installed Macro Sites (thousands)
Capital Intensity
15%
14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14%
13% 13%
12% 12% 12% 12%
396
349
323
302 304 298 308 308
283
242 247 253
213
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(1) Reflects Wireless capex as a percentage of carrier revenue. 2020 data not yet available from CTIA.
(2) T-Mobile and Sprint completed their merger on April 1, 2020.
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Sources: CTIA 2020 Annual Survey, Altman Solon Research & Analysis
Technology Cycles
Historical network buildouts have consisted of 2 broad phases: Coverage and
Capacity
COVERAGE BUILDS
(solving for maximizing 3G 4G 5G
percentage of population with
access to the network) Coverage Coverage Coverage
CAPACITY BUILDS
(solving for meeting increased
capacity needs in areas
3G 4G
where the network is reaching Capacity Capacity
high utilization)
Time
Carriers typically build a wide, thin layer of coverage first and then invest in capacity to
meet demand as subscriber adoption occurs
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Technology Cycles
We are currently transitioning from the 4G capacity stage to the early stages of 5G
Key Components of 4G Capacity Build-out
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The Path Towards 5G
What is 5G?
5G is not a single innovation, but rather a set of advancements in spectrum usage
1G 2G 3G 4G / LTE 5G
Note: Maximum theoretical downlink speed by technology generation, Mbps (10 Gbps is the minimum theoretical upper limit speed specified for 5G)
Source: GSMA Intelligence.
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Network Architecture Expected to Evolve Over Time
5G promises enhanced network capabilities
Air Interface
Internet
Lower Latency
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5G Standardization Timeline
5G standardization is now complete on Release 15 (Phase 1) as well as Release
16 (Phase 2), and published revised timelines for Release 17
Release 17
• 3GPP defined (Dec’19) the scope of proposed
study and work items
Functional Freeze: June ’21
Protocol Stable: June’22
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5G Deployment Timeline
The US, China and Europe are all seeing initial 5G deployments
Technology Adoption by Region
Forecast
2015 2020 2025
USA: Carriers continue rollout in 2021
• All carriers have deployed low-band, nationwide 5G networks with
some deployments also in mmWave as well as mid-band (2.5GHz), with
13 15 17 19 21 23 25
4G
13 15 17 19 21 23 25
4G Launch 4G • Deutsche Telekom has deployed 3.7 GHz 5G in parts of 26 major cities
(Dec’20), aims for 80% coverage by YE’21
Europe 5G Mobile
5G PoC 5G Trial 5G Launch • Vodafone 5G available in 114 locations across UK, Germany, Spain,
Italy, and Ireland and has announced plans for further expansion
5G FW
4G Launch 4G China Mobile got 160MHz at 2.6GHz, China Unicom got 100MHz at 3.5-
Asia / 3.6GHz and China Telecom got 100MHz at 3.4-3.5GHz
5G PoC 5G Trial 5G Launch • Shenzhen (Aug’20) and Beijing (Sep’20) have full 5G coverage
Pacific
5G Mobile
Source: Altman Solon Research & Analysis, GSMA, Carrier press releases 16
The Evolution Towards 5G
Early 5G deployments are under way, but 4G is expected to remain as the
primary network technology for years to come
U.S. market share of connectivity standards (2000-2025)
based on devices
100%
2021(2) 2022
Est. 2G shut-down Est. 3G shut-down
75%
2G
~24 years lifecycle(1) 3G
(1996-2020)
~20 years
50%
(2002-2022) 4G
Est. ~18-20 years
(2010-2028/30)
25%
5G launch in
5G
3G launch 4G launch 2018/2019
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Commercial 5G mobile networks currently available on a limited basis but significant 4G investments
are expected to continue, with over 50% estimated 4G market share through 2025
Notes:
(1) 1G devices shown as part of 2G curve for simplicity
(2) T-Mobile and Verizon have not shut down 2G yet, AT&T shut down in Jan’17 17
Sources: Altman Solon Research & Analysis, GSMA Intelligence, DoCoMo, 3GPP
4G Continues to Catalyze Tremendous Mobile Data Usage
U.S. Mobile Data Traffic is projected to continue to grow rapidly
U.S. Total Mobile-Connected U.S. Monthly Traffic per Mobile U.S. Total Monthly Mobile Data
Devices (Millions) Connection (GB) Traffic (EB)
834 8%
19.8 27%
46.3 24%
408 2%
516
X =
Overall 18.9 26%
361
13.0
Non-IoT Overall 4.8
426 18% Non-IoT
Exponential Growth in Devices and per Device Usage = Significant Growth in Overall Traffic
Notes: IoT: based on M2M module connections, traffic and data usage;
Non-IoT includes everything other than M2M modules (e.g. smartphones, tablets, laptops, and feature phones)
Sources: Ericsson Mobility Report November 2020, Altman Solon Research & Analysis 18
Networks are Evolving to Address Capacity Needs
Ongoing 4G activity includes new wrinkles on equipment configurations
Typical 3G Deployment 4G Deployment
Consolidated base
LTE Baseband unit
stations separated Could be deployed at the bottom of the
850/1900MHz
into Remote Radio tower or also remotely at a datacenter
BTS Heads and (Cloud RAN architecture)
Baseband units
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Ongoing Evolution of Wireless Networks
Heterogeneous Networks (Hetnets) and unlicensed LAA will continue to play an
important role in urban deployments, as will shared spectrum for neutral host
indoor installations
Network deployments are expected to consist of multiple layers—traditional macro cell towers provide
a blanket of coverage, while underneath this umbrella, a combination of other technologies are
deployed to increase network capacity, particularly in dense urban areas
› Macro sites expected to continue providing wide › Multiple solutions including DAS, Rooftops,
area coverage for high mobility users and be the Wi-Fi and Small Cell networks expected to
core of wireless networks complement the coverage provided by towers in
urban locations
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Ongoing Evolution of Wireless Networks
Macro sites remain critical given vast majority of the U.S. landmass is either
rural or suburban
While Hetnets are used
in dense urban and
urban areas, > 80% of
the U.S. population lives
in suburban or rural
areas (<7,500 people per
square mile) where
macro towers are
optimal for wireless
network deployments
• 54% live in suburban
(600-7,500 people per
square mile)
• 28% live in rural (<600
people per square mile)
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5G Capabilities and Implications for AMT
5G Capabilities
True 5G targets substantial improvements over 4G
Sources: 3GPP
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What Does 5G Mean for Users?
Subscribers will come to expect a meaningful improvement in network
performance
Potential for low- Will enable much The number of IoT Networks will be More efficient
latency applications faster access to connected devices able to carry a access devices &
like cloud gaming content across the is expected to rise heavier content sensors with
and others ecosystem and exponentially load extended battery
across devices life
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Source: Bain
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What Use Cases can 5G Transform?
5G has a wide variety of potential applications
Smart Cities
Gigabytes in a second 3D video, UHD screens
Mission critical
application
Smart City/Massive Self driving car Augmented/Virtual Reality Gaming
Sensor Mgmt.
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Interconnected Cars and Autonomous Driving
Source: GSMA
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5G IoT Capabilities
The Internet of Things (IOT) is expected to experience rapid growth as 5G is
deployed
2020 2026E
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5G Deployment – Spectrum Bands
5G will be deployed in layers, with different spectrum bands varying
dramatically on coverage & capacity performance
4G – all bands
Coverage
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Spectrum Considerations: mmWave
Select initial 5G deployments have utilized mmWave spectrum to address the
most pressing capacity constraints in dense urban areas
Overview of mmWave Spectrum (over 24 GHz)
(Illustrative, Not to Scale)
24.25 27.5 28.35 37.0 38.6 40.0 42 42.5 64.0 71.0 76.0 81.0 86.0 102.2 109.5
A1
A2 B
(*) FCC has considered other bands in its Oct. 2014 Notice of Inquiry (NOI) for 24 GHz+ use for mmWave, but latest Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM)
in 2015 does not propose those bands for mobile use.
All bands may have satellite interference issues, but FCC has rejected satellite requests to not use those bands for mobile use and in return has proposed to
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develop a “flexible rules” framework that would permit mobile and satellite to cohabit in bands.
Sources: Altman Solon Research & Analysis, FCC Spectrum Frontiers NPRM
Spectrum Considerations: Low and Mid-Band
We expect low and mid-band spectrum-based 5G deployments to become even
more critical due to more favorable propagation characteristics and
applicability across a wider range of locations
5G Low 5G Mid 5G High (mmWave)
Sub 2GHz 2 – 6GHz 24 – 90 GHz
Currently includes Currently includes Currently includes:
• 600-850MHz • 2.5GHz • 24GHz
Frequency • PCS • CBRS • ~LMDS (27.5GHz-31GHz)
Ranges: • AWS • C-Band • 37 GHz, 39 GHz, 47 GHz
• 64 GHz (proposed)
Ideal for
capacity
Total MHz ~11GHz
Bandwidth ~100MHZ ~500-600MHz (~110X total 600MHz
Available: capacity)
Ideal for
coverage
Propagation
Very good Good Challenging
Characteristics:
High Band
Low Band Mid Band (mmWave)
600MHz 700MHz 800MHz 850MHz 900MHz 1.8GHz 1.9GHz 2GHz 2.1GHz 2.3GHz 2.5GHz 3.5GHz 24GHz 28GHz 39GHz 90GHz
AT&T
US Verizon
T-Mobile
US 5G deployments span low, mid
Deutsche Telekom and high bands…
Vodafone
SFR
Orange
Europe Telefonica (O2) -
Telefonica (Spain)
T-Mobile Austria
A1 Telekom
Austria
China Mobile
China Unicom
China Telecom
SoftBank
APAC NTT
KDDI
KT Corp
LG Uplus
SK Telecom
… whereas most global
deployments focused on 3.5GHz
Confirmed for 5G
5G likely
(mid)
Existing 2G/3G/4G
Source: Fierce Telecom, Reuters, Telegeography, RCN Wireless, Venturebeast, Motley Fool, Company Press Releases, Altman Solon Research & Analysis
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Spectrum Considerations
Overlapping timing & poor mmWave coverage characteristics should drive
parallel 5G coverage deployment at low/mid bands with select capacity
deployment at mmWave bands
High-band (mmWave)
mmWave supports capacity & small- 5G
cell centric 5G deployment
CBRS/3.7- 5G
4.2GHz
Capacity 2.5GHz 4G 4G 5G
Bands
WCS 4G 4G
PCS Mid-Band (e.g. CBRS,C-
3G 4G 4G
Band 2.5GHz) expected to
AWS 4G 4G be the 5G “sweetspot”
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AMT Positioning – Macro Towers
Deployment of 600 MHz, 3.7GHz and other low and mid-band spectrum for 5G expected to
result in incremental demand for AMT’s suburban and rural macro towers
Capacity for
40k+ 95%+ Incremental
Towers Suburban/Rural Equipment
Low-Band Mid-Band
• AT&T, 850 MHz: “As COVID hit and the wireless networks became • CBRS (3.5 GHz): “We’re actually pretty jazzed about that. We acquired
much more suburban-oriented than urban-oriented, our strength in low- nationwide licenses for CBRS. We think there’s lot of benefits. We’re
band spectrum has helped…And so, we've been very focused on that, looking at a whole list of things.”
and we intend to be very focused on that moving forward.” - Dave Mayo, Dish EVP of Network Deployment, February 26, 2021
- John Stankey, AT&T CEO, October 22, 2020
• C-Band (3.7GHz): “The record-breaking $81 billion in total bids raised
• Verizon, DSS Low-Band: "The technology found in both our 5G by the FCC's C-band auction helps highlight the value of this type of
Ultrawideband and our 5G Nationwide [low-band] networks reflects a mid-band spectrum to the three major carriers…propagation
massive, multi-year innovation effort that modernizes our entire network characteristics also mean that C-band winners like Verizon will need to
with cutting edge capabilities.“ light up far more transmission sites to cover the same geographic area
- Kyle Malady, Verizon CTO, December 17, 2020 than they would with low-band spectrum. This is likely welcome news to
cell tower and small cell owners.”
- Mike Dano, Light Reading Editorial Director, February 25, 2021
Continued 4G 4x4 MIMO, New band deployments (e.g. WCS, AWS-3) along with
Investments spectrum re-farming from 2G/3G (e.g. PCS) to 4G drive continued
activity
Significant Next demand wave driving continuing need for more capacity
and site densification including across suburban and rural macro
Expected IoT towers and potential next-generation use cases like edge
Demand computing, Automotive, AR/VR, etc.
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Definitions
Key Definitions
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