HOW WILL MOBILE FIND ITS VOICE

IN 2022?

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 HOW WILL MOBILE FIND ITS VOICE IN 2022?
1.1 Current Mobile Voice Market Outlook
The mobile market has always been prone to digital disruption, as the way
consumers communicate has changed dramatically over the last two decades. The
use of fixed-line telephone services has declined steadily, whilst there have been
significant increases in the use of mobile services, Wi-Fi calling services and OTT
mobile voice services and the roll-out of superior connectivity modes, such as 4G LTE
(Long-term Evolution), 5G, and in the future, 6G networks.
The decline in these fixed-line telephone services is reducing for a number of
reasons, but it is primarily due to a significant increase in mobile phone and tablet
device ownership supporting data-intensive applications, such as mobile games,
mobile videos and location-based services.
As enterprises now have the ability to adopt multiple technologies options, from 3G
to 5G, brand and enterprise needs are constantly evolving, as there is a requirement
to service multiple market verticals. Even though this has led to the voice ecosystem
becoming more complex, it has allowed MNOs (Mobile Network Operators) to
increase their role in the enterprise business, as they will be able to offer a
differentiation of connectivity and service. However, this means that these MNOs
must ensure that they continue to implement and update commercial models that
are able to quickly adapt to the changing market and business conditions.
Due to the constant evolution of mobile voice services, MNOs are constantly striving
to substitute legacy telecommunications technologies in their networks with
contemporary ones.
Moreover, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the wholesale voice carrier industry has
gained some significant traction, as the majority of brands and enterprises had to
adapt to working from home for their employees. This social and economic
disruption has highlighted how important the development of the
telecommunications infrastructure is in keeping brands, enterprises, governments
and societies connected.
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As mentioned, the mobile industry is prone to disruption. This has caused the
ubiquity of smartphones, the widespread availability of LTE and an increase in
businesses partaking in a digital transformation. This transformation is powered by
cloud-based capacities and low-latency networks, including 5G. This has caused
mobile and fixed networks being more in demand than they used to be.
The global number of SIMs will continue to increase across the next four years. This
increase is attributed to not only population growth but also growth in number of
smartphones owned per person as aforementioned. However, highly developed
regions such as North America and West Europe will see a minute increase over the
forecast period. This is due to these regions reaching market saturation.
As developed regions, such as North America and the Far East & China, experience
shortened upgrade time for their mobile handsets, this means that voice services on
these devices are updated more frequently. In order to keep up with device
replacement cycles, network operators are continuously upgrading their technology
and in turn, mitigate their mobile networks to an all IP-mobile ecosystem. This has
caused the creation of a number of voice services such as VoLTE, VoWiFi and HD
voice. These services can directly compete with OTT services in the voice market,
whilst also being readily installed and available on most mobile handsets, similarly to
its messaging counterpart, RCS (Rich Communications Service).
Furthermore, Juniper Research predicts that by the end of 2022, the penetration rate
for mobile SIMs will reach 113%. This means that the total number of SIMs will
surpass the total predicted population. This penetration is due to the fact that many
consumers in highly established regions, such as North America and Far East and
China, will own more than one smartphone, eg a business phone. Countries with
high predicted penetration outside of these regions include Qatar (165%), Bulgaria
(235%) and Denmark (182%).
1.1.1 Key Mobile Voice Channels
In order for MNOs to leverage networks on new voice technologies, they must first
ensure that their services are compatible with the following networks.
 HOW WILL MOBILE FIND ITS VOICE IN 2022? 2

Figure 1: Proportion of Mobile Voice Channels by 2026, Split by 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G network services, to be transformed for new generations of mobile technologies,
including third generation (using UMTS [United Mobile Telecommunications System]
technology) and fourth generation (using LTE technology).

Although 2G networks are being phased out in many regions, there are still some
regions such as Africa and the Middle East that use these 2G networks. However,
6% there are major encryption concerns regarding these networks, as there is no
authentication of 2G towers to the mobile device. This means that organisations can
spoof base stations to intercept mobile phone traffic and location data. However,
33% 21%
newer standards, including 3G, 4G and 5G, are designed to protect against such
attacks.

Newer network technologies, such as 3G, are cheaper to operate compared to older
network technologies; making it no longer profitable to be running 2G networks.
However, as mentioned, MNOs must keep 2G networks switched on for the small
number of people that are still using 2G for cellular purposes.

40% ii. 3G SIMS

In the US, it has been scheduled that all the major MNOs will shut down their 3G
networks in 2022. These network operators include AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon.
Some of these MNOs, such as AT&T, have already closed down their 3G network,
2G 3G 4G 5G with other operators scheduled to follow throughout 2022.

The US is not the only country to begin the shutdown of its 3G networks. In the UK,
Source: Juniper Research Vodafone has announced plans to switch off its 3G networks in 2023. Similarly to 2G
networks, the closure of these 3G networks is to use the freed-up spectrum to allow
i. 2G SIMs network operators to expand their 4G and 5G networks.

Many countries have already begun the process of phasing out 2G infrastructure, in
order to make room in the spectrum to allow for the mass roll-out of 5G and other
future networks. Juniper Research predicts the total number of 2G SIMS will be on a
constant decline over the next four years This is due to MNOs moving all customers
to using more advanced networks such as 3G, 4G and 5G.
Once these 2G networks get shut down, its previously allocated bandwidth is
repurposed to become more efficient through spectrum farming. This process allows
for the repurposing of frequency bands that have historically been allocated to 2G
It is predicted that the number of 3G SIMs will decrease throughout the next four
years, however, there is a slightly increase in the number of 3G SIM usage between
2021 and 2022. This slightly increase could be due to phasing out of 2G networks
causing a shift to 3G networks. However, unlike 2G networks, 3G networks can
support some of the next-generation voice technologies, such as VoIP and VoCS
(Voice over Circuit Switch). However, it cannot support other progressive voice
services, eg VoLTE.

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 HOW WILL MOBILE FIND ITS VOICE IN 2022?
iii. 4G SIMs
Juniper Research anticipates that the total number of 4G and 5G SIMs will be on an
exponential increase over the next four years. This increase is primarily due to the
phasing out 2G and 3G networks, and 4G acting as a stop gap in the development of
next-generation 5G networks.
However, unlike 3G, 4G networks can use VoLTE and have higher bandwidth,
broadband speed and voice traffic. As this voice traffic is able to be transferred over
the data plane of networks, this allowed the utilisation of 4G software to be more
cost-efficient and will consequently encourage MNOs to move away from 3G
networks. This is a trend that is already being witnessed across a number of regions,
including North America and West Europe.
At present, 4G networks will occupy the majority of the mobile broadband landscape
and this will be the case throughout the next four years. This is due to 4G being able
to support the roll-out of VoLTE. However, the development and deployment of 5G
will be significant of the next four years.
iv. 5G SIMs
In September 2020, Apple launched the iPhone 12, which encompasses 5G
technology. This caused an acceleration in the popularity and usage of 5G networks
worldwide. 5G networks continue the evolution of wireless network generations, with
5G networks being able to process vast amounts of data more efficiently than 4G LTE
networks. This means that 5G can provide faster downloads speeds for movies, TV
shows, or video calling, more connected devices with fast signal for IoT devices, low
latency, reliable connections that allow content streaming, and faster responsiveness
during data-demanding activities, such as cloud gaming.
Juniper Research believes that after 2024, 5G will be the only network connectivity
that will be growing globally, whereas all other generation networks will be on the
decline. Whilst all networks will still operate some prevalence, 5G will have a
disruptive impact on the telecommunications market. This means that operators will
have to look for new business models and monetisation strategies in order to
maximise the return on their investment.
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The initial roll-out of 5G will rely on LTE networks and therefore, VoLTE will become
its fallback option when there is not universal coverage of 5G. As a result, this
highlights why 4G is still expected to remain the dominant cellular network
technology for most regions around the world over the next four years.
1.2 Key Drivers to the Mobile Voice Market
With the shutdown of 2G and 3G networks, many IoT (Internet of Things) devices are
still operating using these networks. For devices to be able to function on these
next-generation networks, users will have to buy completely new equipment which is
not always viable. Therefore, Juniper Research believes that with the increase of 4G
and 5G networks, there will also be an increase in eSIM and multi-network providers
usage, specifically for the IoT market. Multi-network providers will be able to control
the hesitancy in the mobile voice market with the adoption and roll-out of
next-generation networks.
In the long term, eSIMs will be a solution for the closure of these networks, as once
these SIMs are installed into any device, they can connect to any operator, without
the need to swap SIMs. This allows for the removal of reliance on plastic SIM cards
and single operators. Although many MNOs have announced the closure of their 2G
and 3G networks, multi-network SIMs and eSIMs will ensure that the voice market is
able to trade throughout 2022 and for some years to come.
1.2.1 Increased Smartphone Penetration
The number of mobile subscribers is constantly increasing. This is not only due to the
increased need for communication and human interaction across many messaging
channels, but it is also related to the constant digitalisation within several marketing
industries, including retail and eCommerce.
This increase in smartphone penetration will naturally cause a growth in the number
of mobile apps, as the demand for digital consumption increases. The COVID-19
pandemic had a significant impact on the mobile app ecosystem, as many apps such
as entertainment, online shopping, business, and education saw a significant spike in
the number of downloads.
 HOW WILL MOBILE FIND ITS VOICE IN 2022?
1.2.2 BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) in Enterprises
BYOD is a scheme whereby employees, key partners and other company associates
within the brand or enterprise bring in their own devices such as smartphones,
tablets, laptops and other technology assets. These devices are then connected to
the corporate network and use the corporate data to contribute to the organisational
operations. The culture of BYOD has increased inconsistently over the past five years,
however, the enhanced demand for smartphones and the COVID-19 pandemic has
caused the BYOD trend to be on an upward trajectory.
Brands and enterprises are able to use these network infrastructures to develop
their own private LTE network, which will allow the connectivity of multiple personal
devices that have the ability to operate on advanced cellular technology.
However, as the BYOD market grows, so does its threat to security. If the security and
network policies are not streamlined within a brand or enterprise, there is a major
risk of corporate assets being compromised.
1.2.3 CPaaS Platforms & OTT Communications
CPaaS (Communications Platform-as-a-Service) is an emerging solution which allows
service providers to offer a comprehensive platform that enables the management
of communications between brands, enterprises and consumers.
Juniper Research defines a CPaaS platform as:
‘A service or solution that enables brands and advertisers to
communicate to clients via multiple outbound online and
mobile channels via a singular centralised platform.’
These CPaaS platforms include SMS (Short Message Service), RCS (Rich
Communications Service) and OTT messaging applications, as well as push
notifications, email, and voice services. The value of the individual services a CPaaS
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provider offers is quite low, however, when bundled together, they create a
technology that is far better value than the sum of its parts.
Although there are many methods to monetise these communications platforms,
Juniper Research believes that the success of a CPaaS platform should not be
measured by its user traffic, but instead by the number of services in which it offers,
as the introduction of payment and financial services will be imperative to its
success.
Moreover, by consolidating these different technologies into one place, it can have a
larger impact on enterprise communications, thus increasing voice traffic in the B2C
market.
1.3 Future Monetisable Voice Services
1.3.1 CCaaS (Contact Centre-as-a-Service)
Contact centres provide communications between companies and their consumers,
and CCaaS solutions mean that these companies can enhance and upgrade their
protocols in their control centres in any way they choose and with almost immediate
effect. Juniper Research defines CCaaS as:
‘A service that merges cloud-based contact centre
infrastructure with contact centre processes.’
As CCaaS provides a cloud-based software deployment model, this enables
companies to purchase only the technology they need, rather than purchasing
technology bundles and having systems go to waste. This ensures that the company
reduces IT, integration and support costs.
Moreover, moving a contact centre infrastructure to the cloud will allow for the easy
adoption of new functionalities and technologies. These technologies will include AI
and automation which will allow voice clouds to provide recommended solutions and
 HOW WILL MOBILE FIND ITS VOICE IN 2022?
next-best actions for agents who are currently handling customer queries. Also, this
ability to utilise voice AI in CCaaS will allow users to view all calls and digital
conversations in real-time, whilst also monitoring call routes and clearing.
Furthermore, CCaaS platforms will provide interoperability between telephony
networks, as users will be able to select an operator of their choosing, keep their
existing telephony provider or use other capabilities, thus providing interoperability
between carrier networks.
1.3.2 Voice Recognition Services
In today’s technology market, voice recognition is built into most devices. For
example, smartphones and tablets have high-quality microphones installed, which
will be utilised within AI to interpret voice input and commands. The voice assistants
market is relatively mature and in order to progress, these devices must adopt
value-added services to the medium to leverage the devices for new revenue
streams.
Although voice recognition software is constantly improving, there are still
substantial errors that can diminish the value of the service. These errors can be
manually altered by the user, specifically if they are using voice recognition for
speech-to-text purposes. However, corrections in voice recognition can also be
adapted using AI and machine learning software.
Despite the potential of voice assistants, they do come with some barriers,
specifically in the mobile voice market:
a) Language Barrier
Digital voice assistants such as Google Home and Alexa are deployed worldwide and
therefore, it is imperative that the device is able to understand the native language in
the county in which it is deployed. Only being able to understand baseline language
is not enough, as a lack of proper localisation may cause voice assistants to miss
cultural specifics and norms.
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This foreshadows an additional growth obstacle which is a lack of cultural diversity.
Companies that want to continue investing in digital assistants must proactively
participate in the development of language support and cultural diversity.
b) Lack of Cross-platform Standards
Due to increased consumer demand, voice assistant platforms are no longer
safeguarding their own domains. For example, in September 2019, Amazon
announced the creation of VII (Voice Interoperability Intuitive) which allows the
simultaneous presence of multiple assistants on voice-activated devices. This means
that specific wake words can be used anytime to access a preferred assistant.
Amazon has already implemented this with the Meta portal display and smart
speaker products by Deutsche Telekom and Orange. Despite this initiative by
Amazon, there is still a lack of interoperability within the voice assistant space, as
many of the leading players have not yet agreed on a universal cross-platform
standard. Therefore, this lack of interoperability will significantly hinder the growth of
the voice assistants market.
1.3.3 Flash Calling
Inter-operator competition and the emergence of OTT messaging services led MNOs
to offer SMS bundles, often unlimited, at low prices. These bundles can then be used
to fulfil A2P messaging and are ideal for those players without the capability or
inclination to seek direct connectivity to the SS7 network.
Flash calling will take a similar route. However, given the increased complexity in
using the A number to authenticate the user or transaction, fraudulent players will
need to take extra steps to avoid the use of flash calling platforms and the
subsequent cost. It is of note that at present, brands and enterprises do not pay for
official flash calling traffic, as the owner of the network, the operator, can charge a
premium for this traffic, if it can be identified by voice firewalls.
For MNOs, the ability to monetise flash calling as a channel dedicated to use
authentication and verification is essential as having the ability to decipher voice
traffic as P2P or A2P is the first step in producing a revenue stream. Therefore, MNOs
will be able to turn A2P voice into an additional revenue stream, while also protecting
A2P SMS traffic.
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Indeed, Juniper Research believes that flash calling will take a similar path to
development as the A2P SMS market, including challenges such as grey routes that
do not fully maximise A2P SMS traffic.
1.3.4 Voice Firewalls
For MNOs, voice firewalls are used to identify potentially fraudulent voice traffic, and
these services are provided by a flash calling service provider. However, unlike SMS
traffic, voice traffic adds a degree of complexity due to the development of
technologies, such as VoLTE and Vo5G. This is due to these technologies requiring
various different network planes to carry IP-based traffic. Therefore, these voice
firewalls will need to have a greater presence in operators’ networks to ensure that
the amount of unmonetised traffic is identified.
The prevalence of 4G and 5G subscriptions is increasing, whilst more historic
technologies, such as 2G, are being removed. The increase of these next-generation
technologies, eg VoLTE and 5G, has resulted in voice traffic being transported over a
data plane, rather than a dedicated voice plane.
To ensure that all these areas are covered by a voice firewall, we anticipate that the
cost of implementing voice firewalls will exceed the cost of an SMS firewall.
Moreover, as the initial cost of a voice firewall increases, so does the cost to
implement a voice firewall over 5G and 5G networks, given their high levels of
visualisation.
Having the ability to utilise programmable voice is important in today’s technology
market as the use of multi-channel programmable communications is increasing due
to brands and enterprises wanting to provide a more engaging experience for their
customers. Indeed, until recently, the uptake of voice channels has been slow, as it
required a number of costly investments specifically into telecommunications
infrastructure and licences. However, these programmable communications remove
these complexities, as businesses can utilise the software-based API-driven
framework, which allows them to individually tailor communications to suit the
needs of their end users.
Juniper Research believes that programmable communications including voice will be
important to the future of the working world. Firstly, this is due to these voice APIs
having the flexibility to allow global enterprises in any market vertical to effectively
use next-generation technologies without the need to invest in extensive telecom
infrastructure and expertise. Secondly, these APIs also facilitate effective
collaboration, customer engagement and customer service through the integration
of applications and workflows. Therefore, this will allow brands and enterprises to
improve internal efficiencies which will generate more value for their end users, thus
increasing profitability.

1.3.5 Programmable Voice

Programmable voice is the ability to make, control, receive and monitor calls via
voice API software. Voice APIs do not only enable an application to connect to a
carrier network, but they also allow the app in use to control the carrier service to
perform a number of voice operations, including call recording and audio
conferencing. Essentially, these APIs enable developers to programmatically control a
carrier network without having to interactive directly with the PSTN (Public Switched
Telephone Network). As the need for voice APIs increases, operators will be able to
monetise these APIs by taking a proportion of the revenue generated by each API
call.

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• Operators are urged to capitalise on the growth of Voice-over-5G users to create a

1.4 Market Forecast Summary: Total 5G Voice Users in 2026: 2.5 Billion
The total number of Voice-over-5G users will reach 2.5 billion globally by 2026; rising
from only 290 million in 2022. This remarkable growth of 780% will be driven by the
acceleration of 5G roll-outs following a slowing during the pandemic. Voice-over-5G
• Interactive calling is a key opportunity for operators who have launched 5G to
leverages the software-based nature of 5G networks to offer APIs for business voice
services over operator networks.
Figure.1: Total Number of Vo5G Voice Users in 2026, Split by 8 Key Regions: 2.5 Billion
new portfolio of voice services. It is recommended that operators prioritise
interactive calling, intelligent call routing, and the integration of AI-based IVR
(Interactive Voice Services) as these provide the most immediate return on
investment of Voice-over-5G.
provide more valuable voice services and compete with OTT voice apps such as
WhatsApp and Messenger. Interactive calling leverages 5G networks to offer
subscribers and enterprises advanced voice calling functionalities, such as
interactive content and screensharing, directly in the native calling app on
smartphones, thus negating the need to download third-party applications

• Current 4G voice technology, VoLTE (Voice-over-LTE), is not sufficient to support

interactive calling. Whilst there are currently over 4.4 billion VoLTE users,
representing over 50% of subscribers, the lower speed of 4G networks in
comparison to 5G networks has thus far restricted the use of interactive features
or AI in operators’ voice services.

• Despite the growth of Voice-over-5G, operator-billed voice revenue will decline by

16% over the next four years as P2P voice traffic migrates to third-party OTT voice
apps. In response, operators are urged to capitalise on the growth of 5G networks
to develop new business-oriented voice services, such as interactive calling.
5G-based voice services must emulate operators’ current business messaging
solutions by levying the cost on enterprises, rather than monetising mobile
subscriber usage.

North America Latin America West Europe

Central & East Europe Far East & China Indian Subcontinent

Rest of Asia Pacific Africa & Middle East

Source: Juniper Research

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o Twilio
Featuring in-depth insight into the future of voice services, this new report gives
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• Benchmark Industry Forecasts: 5-year forecasts are provided for total
existing infrastructures and new technologies in order to create new revenue
mobile voice users, minutes, data and revenue split into six mobile voice
streams. The report also positions 15 leading mobile voice service providers in the
technologies, including operator voice markets, VoLTE, Vo5G, OTT voice,
Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard.
mobile video calling, and voice assistant calling for 8 key global regions and
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• Business Model Analysis: Key monetisation opportunities for mobile voice What’s in this Research?
service providers for technologies including:
o CCaaS (Contact Centre-as-a-Service) 1. Market Trends & Strategies: Strategic analysis of market dynamics, drivers,
trends and constraints, together will detailed future monetisation opportunities
o Flash Calling
and regional analyses (PDF).
o Interactive Voice Response

o Programmable Voice 2. Competitor Leaderboard: Detailed investigation of key mobile voice

technologies and player analysis via the Juniper Research Competitor
o Voice Firewalls
Leaderboard and Heatmap (PDF).
o Voice Recognition Services
3. 5-year Forecasts: Extensive forecasts on the total market value of the mobile
• Mobile Voice Regional & Technology Impact Analysis: A technology
voice market, including the number of mobile voice users, and total data,
impact assessment for mobile voice technologies across 60 countries.
minutes and revenue across multiple voice technologies (PDF).
• Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard: Key player capability and
capacity assessment for 15 mobile voice service providers; positioning them 4. Interactive Forecast Excel: Highly granular dataset comprising of 25,460
as either an established leader, leading challenger, or disruptor and datapoints; allied to an interactive scenario tool; giving users the ability to
challenger, including: manipulate Juniper Research’s data (Interactive XL).
o Ericsson Networks
5. harvest Online Data Platform: 12 months’ access to all the data in our online
o Huawei
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Publication Details

Publication date: May 2022

Authors: Elisha Sudlow-Poole

Contact: For more information contact info@juniperresearch.com

Juniper Research Ltd, 9 Cedarwood, Chineham Park, Basingstoke, Hampshire, RG24

8WD UK

Tel: UK: +44 (0)1256 830002/475656 USA: +1 408 716 5483 (International answering
service)

http://www.juniperresearch.com

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