EL

SALVADOR: ALL POWER TO BUKELE?

Facundo Escobar.- UWI Data
3-9-2021
https://uwidata.com/16755-el-salvador-all-power-to-bukele/

In this article we´ll seek to make a contribution to the analysis of the Salvadoran political
system, within the framework of the Nayib Bukele government that began in 2019 and an
apparent weakening of the historic Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN). The
last February 28th legislative and municipal elections offer a privileged setting where the
deployment of political actors, the forms of political action and the mutations of the system,
can be all clearly seen in motion.
We will focus on the figure of the president Bukele and his political force (New Ideas) that
has become dominant. What is happening with the traditional Salvadoran bipartisan system
(FMLN vs Nationalist Republican Alliance, ARENA)? What viability and what value or
function does a probable consolidation of "bukelism" could have for imperialist interests?

Bukelism
President Nayib Bukele was the central figure in these mayoral and legislative elections.
Despite not appearing on the ballot, his image and influence have been crucial to position
his party, presented as "the N of Nayib", as the main political force, after competing for the
first time in elections, obtaining an unprecedented victory. On the contrary, the FMLN had
the worst electoral performance in its history.
Bukele spent most of his political career among the ranks of that left wing front. That´s right.
He was mayor of San Salvador capital city (2015-2018) as part of that party, from which he
was expelled in 2017. Finally, he turned into president in 2019.
The young Bukele, after being expelled, perhaps due to his presidential aspirations (and
perhaps his Pandora's box imprint), got allied with the far-right formation Great Alliance
for National Unity (GANA), from where he began to collect support from all the FMLN and
ARENA enemies and adversaries. Those are the poles in the two-party political system, both,
derivation and continuity by other means of the civil war between 1980-1992 before which
Bukele stands as an antagonist.
Seemingly, Bukele emerges as a renovating figure in the political scene. Turned into the
conspicuous figure of what seems to be a new confluence point of the center and right-wing,
the conservative and the oligarchic groups and sectors, most of the liberals, the military.
His projection is also revealed when we see his aligning in international politics. In 2019,
shortly after taking office, he visited Washington and as a president he gave a press
conference in the Heritage Foundation, one of the main think tanks of the American right.
He announced a turn in El Salvador foreign policy, regarding the past governments of the
FMLN: “Nicolas Maduro and Daniel Ortega can say goodbye to their allies in El Salvador”, he
said in a speech that was considered a letter of friendship to then-President Donald Trump.

Political results
These elections are the tenths of their kind since the signing of the 1992 Peace Accords
between the Army and the FMLN, which ended 12 years of a civil war that caused tens of
thousands of deaths. On February 28, in addition to deputies, members of the Municipal
Councils of the 262 municipalities were also elected for the period 2021-2024.
A total of 5.4 million citizens were eligible to cast ballots out of a total population of 6.7
million; approximately 51% of the electorate went to the polls.
His party obtained 66.45% of the votes and won the qualified majority in the Legislative
Assembly, the only chamber of the Salvadoran legislature, obtaining 56 of 84 deputies. It
also took over 146 mayoralties. GANA obtained 5 deputies, FMLN 4, PCN 2, Nuevos Tiempos
1, PDC 1, Vamos 1.
As everywhere, the political dispute it´s taking place within the framework of the sanitary
restrictions that overdetermine the deployment of people, therefore, the communication
processes. Bukele gained advantage over his opponents under these conditions. knowing
how to exploit the situation and how to use the political instruments and devices of the
current times, he launched an offensive against the FMLN and ARENA, restlessness
attacking them.
The electoral process (and particularly the results) exposed the growing power of Bukele
and his party. For instance, the next Assembly must elect the new attorney general of the
Republic and five magistrates of the Supreme Court of Justice; he´ll be able to approve the
taking of new foreign debt, the raise of taxes or modify the Constitution. For all this, 56 votes
are necessary. Bukele has them. The initiative too.
At the same time, the results indicate a harsh defeat for RENA and FMLN. Both seem to have
lost power and influence in the face of the rise of a new political figure, someone like a
modern caudillo, a fan of Elon Musk, an admirer of Trump who continues to accumulate
power, gaining centrality and initiative, nourished by a large multi-class number of
supportive votes, backed by the dominant classes.
Meanwhile, the country is going through a very tough time, getting worse over the past year
with Bukele as president. In 2020 there was a 7.2% drop in GDP (World Bank) and nearly
200,000 formal and informal jobs were lost. Poverty reached 40% of households (in 2018,
the last year of the FMLN government, it was 26%), returning to the same level as 2008
when ARENA ruled. El Salvador, the 117th world economy (out of a total of 196), continues
to be one of the most unequal countries in Latin America. Bukele closed 13 of the more than
40 successful and necessary social programs promoted by the FMLN governments. The
public debt climbed to 90% of GDP. Projections indicate that this year it could exceed 100%.
The rating agencies place the country at "high risk of default." This implies more cuts in
State expenditure and more indebtment, to the detriment of more public investment in
security issues, the military, the liberalization of the economy and payment of interest on
the debt. In that game, the US knows how to move swift and ruthless. El Salvador it´s a
dependent country and a prey of transnational corporations and direct investment.
The electorate's rejection of ARENA, the FMLN, and the traditional party system could be
reason enough to explain this paradox. But at the same time, it must be considered that
there was a reasonably good handling of the pandemic in sanitary terms, and that the
government was able to guarantee the delivery of food packages to the vast majority of the
population, in addition to some cash aid. Effectiveness must also be attributed to Bukele's
political game, by the way in which he addresses and summons the masses, and the tools he
used. Although he defines himself as an outsider, he is the pure fruit of the same old political
system. It is in any case a derivation, a new product, a disruptive emergent, readapted to the
conditions in which politics can be developed in the present and the order regime needs to
maintain domination. He is the new face of the ruling classes hegemony.

Bukeles´ways
Once the 2021 elections arrived, in the face of turn imposed by the Covid, the FMLN seems
to have been overwhelmed by the new normality. On the other hand, Bukele, before and
during the pandemic, seems to have strengthened, enhanced and diversified its
multiplatform deployment and capabilities. He counts on a powerful propaganda apparatus.
Social networks have been his main tools. He is seen in photos, drawings, merchandise,
videos; he uses Tik Tok, Youtube, Instagram or Twitter (his main source of communication),
effectively and pragmatically, in addition to traditional media outlets. He himself seems to
be in charge of the communication task force. Permanently and dynamically, as an
aggressive strategy, he has been carrying out an attack against his political adversaries,
now, and when he was mayor of the capital city.
With his baseball hat backwards, fitted pants, leather jacket, sunglasses, fencing a
belligerent discourse, he knew how to build an image of an idealistic rebel. Bukele defined
himself as "the coolest president in the world" and has a lot of influence on the youth (being
he one of the youngest presidents in the world).
Let us look at two precise political operations carried out by Bukele before and during 2021
elections. The first example was given the day before the elections when a famous Mexican
youtuber arrived at El Salvador (Luisitocomunica, 35.4 million subscribers, 6 billion views;
8 million followers on TW; in addition, he is a successful investor). He was received by the
presidential entourage and interviewed the president that same day. As we said, the votes
for New Ideas were votes for Bukele. Showing off with the young and successful youtuber
was a high-impact maneuver, on a specific sector, rather middle and upper class, facing the
opening of the polls, when political propaganda was prohibited.
Let's now see the other example. On the same day of the elections, Bukele called a press
conference. There, in the middle of the afternoon, while people were voting, without
mentioning his party, he spoke to the population, using the traditional and mass
communication channels: “If you voted on February 3, 2019, let's finish celebrating what
we started that day. Let's have an Assembly that works hand in hand with the president” he
said. The Electoral Collegiate issued a sanctioning procedure against him for violating the
electoral silence, something that surely won´t bring him negative consequences. Bukele
showed that he knows how to play on the edge.
It must be borne in mind that the president clearly knows that the political game means
struggle, conflict, confrontation, and that he must build governability and get votes in order
to gain power and sustain it. Therefore, he understands that social networks are just a part
of the game. Let's look at case of his capacity for political deployment and negotiation.

Agreement with the Maras
As a consequence of the civil war, many Salvadoran families migrated to the United States.
There, many of their children began to form gangs and become involved in crime. Lot of
them were later deported. Back in El Salvador, they formed maras, criminal gangs very well
organized, with different financing systems and great involvement with the communities,
as they are part of it. They are grassroot experiences that exercise territorial power and are
linked to the party system. They are a central political actor in the country. Today there are
about 60,000 active gang members, without counting their families and other relationships.
El Salvador is among the most violent countries according to statistical indicators, where
there have been 52 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants in 2018, the highest rate in the world
by that time. In this framework, as soon as he assumed office, Bukele launched the
Territorial Control Plan, deploying the Army all over the country, ordered under a heavy-
handed policy on the streets and in prisons, even authorizing shoot to kill.
He said this generated a decrease in the rates to 19 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants.
However, as reported by the website El Faro, this decline is due to a political agreement by
the government with some of the most powerful gangs in Salvador, including Mara
Salvatrucha 13 (MS-13). Delegates from different imprisoned gang members received
multiple visits over several months from Bukele's trusted personnel. The gangs pledged to
support Bukele's campaign and collaborate in reducing the number of homicides, so that
the government could show positive results in reducing crime and murders. In exchange,
they would be allowed to buy and sell different products inside prisons. Jail guards who
were considered very aggressive by gang members would be transferred. Other key points
would be the reversal of the government decision made last April to gather members of
opposing gangs in the same cells, the softening of the maximum-security regime, the
repealing or the granting of new laws that benefits them. The president has denied
everything.

The end of the FMLN?
The main left-wing force that the country has had in the 20th and 21st centuries is going
through an obvious crisis. In October 1980, five armed organizations gave life to the FMLN
guerrilla. In 1992 they became a political party after the Chapultepec Peace Accords. As part
of the wave led by Hugo Chávez in the continent, its zenith was in 2009, where they obtained
the presidency for the first time with 43% of the votes, ruling until 2019. Their worst
performance was in 1994, when they got 25% of the vote. Since 2015, however, they have
suffered a notable electoral decline from which they have not yet been able to recover. In
that year they obtained 847,289 votes (deputies and mayors). In the 2018 legislative and
municipal elections those figures dropped to 521,257. In the 2019 presidential elections
they obtained 389,000 votes (4%). They finally hit rock bottom this year, getting 162,968
votes. The FMLN not only loosed parliamentary presence. Having entered these elections
with 64 mayors, they ended up having only 20.
Has the FMLN been worn down by Bukele's constant attacks? Is Bukele achieving the
continental scale imperial objective that stipulates the elimination of all leftist, populist and
Chavista-reminiscent formations?
The FMLN seems not to have found an axis of political action, nor to have been able to
address the masses, neither in the streets nor at the polls. In the meantime, Bukele's
initiatives had no response. The FMLN spent a mere $ 17,821.26 on electoral advertising
between January 1 and 31, 2021 compared to the $ 3.6 million that New Ideas spent in the
same period. The FMLN made it known that they were forbidden by the gangs from entering
the colonies and poorest neighborhoods to seek votes. Also, that they were not prepared for
the communication war (a good part of its strategy was reduced to Facebook Live, Zoom
connections and social media positioning).
Only 25 days before the elections, one of the worst political attacks of the last 3 decades
took place. In the capital, a man fired at a truck loaded with FMLN militants who were
returning from a proselytizing act, killing two of them, wounding five others. The left-wing
formation blamed Bukele and the state. This issue colored the rest of the FMLN campaign
without achieving a growth in popular support for the demand for justice, even denouncing
a president as a murderer.
The case of ARENA is analogous to that of the FMLN. What was known as the party of the
rich is bankrupt. It will go from having 37 deputations to 14 seats. They are experiencing a
drain on their electorate and the power factors that supported them since the 1980s. The
party has a debt of more than seven million dollars since 2019. This year they received no
state funding for the campaign.

Some conclusions
February's results could help Bukele consolidate an authoritarian turn. It is striking that the
very Organization of American States (OAS) and Human Rights Watch consider that El
Salvador is on the way to becoming a "dictatorship." Bukele, with his 2019 electoral victory,
broke almost three decades of bipartisanship. The devastating electoral victory
consolidates this trend, allowing him to move towards a greater concentration of power,
granting him absolute control of the executive and the legislative branch, a huge control and
influence over judicial powers, in addition to having deployed a widespread territorial
presence thanks to the municipalities where New Ideas won. It is an unprecedented power
in the hands of a leader who will not be obliged to negotiate with opponents or to agree with
satellite parties.
What relationship will Bukele have with Biden? At the moment only tensions have been
shown. Previously, he had praised Trump, as they shared mutual admiration and cultural
political flair. Bukele criticized the US and Mexico agreements on migration. We will then
have to see how the country is inserted into the new scheme, along with Honduras and
Guatemala, respecting the migratory crisis. He faces Maduro, Cuba, and any radical popular
Latin-American project.
The country has an anti-popular rooted armed force, conditioned by Washington regional
security agenda. Bukele seems to be forging an alliance with them. As soon as he assumed
the presidency, he made strategic changes in the police and military leadership, while he is
allocating a lot of money for those institutions. They acted together in a showoff in February
2020. Bukele broke in the Legislature flanked by a group of heavily armed troops carrying
rifles and dressed in tactical gear. The soldiers entered the building after the president failed
to push through approval of a $109 million equipment loan for them. Bukele issued a call
for supporters to descend on the Assembly. Thousands responded. Inside, he talked to the
deputies who are usually referred to as "dipu-ratas" (rat-deputies): "I think it is very clear
who is in control of the situation", he prayed covering his face, cried, and went out to tell his
supporters: "If we wanted to press the button, we would press the button" and remove
lawmakers from the legislature. "But I asked God and God told me: patience, patience,
patience. On Feb. 28 [2021] all these scoundrels are heading out the door…If these
scoundrels do not approve [the loan for] the Territorial Control Plan, we will summon them
here on Sunday," he said. Now, with the legislature in control, you will have no bar on getting
that loan.
We know that revolutionary processes have ups and downs, or that a left-wing political
project does not depend on an electoral result. But will the FMLN be able to grow, reinvent
and consolidate itself? The regional context is not cooperating and Bukele's offensive will
not stop. Destroying the FMLN would be a medal in its trajectory, within the framework of
the regional imperial strategy to end populism and the militant left, which at the same time
represents the only possible way for the dispossessed and majorities of Our America to
build a viable, equal and inclusive destination.