2019 International Conference on Communications, Information System and Computer Engineering (CISCE)
The Research on User Short-term Electricity Load
Forecasting for Judging Electric Theft
Dong Xianguang1, Zhang Songhui1, Dai Yanjie1, Zhang Zhi1, Wang Pingxin1, Chen Zhiru1, Xing Yu1 Liu Yanxi2, Yu
Chao2
1
State Grid Shandong Electric Power Research Institute, Jinan, China
2
Shandong Zhongshiyitong Group Co., Ltd, Jinan, China
E-mail: 1217468383@qq.com
Abstract—With the continuous development of society and the
increasing demand for electricity, the importance of anti-electric
theft has become increasingly prominent. At present, the power
grid is developing rapidly, the phenomenon of electric theft is
frequent, but the quality of relevant inspectors and related
technologies are inadequate in identifying electricity stealing. In
view of the above problems, this paper proposes a new method
for judging electric theft, which can predict the short-term
electricity load forecasting of users. A short-term load curve
prediction method based on multi-granularity information
optimization template matching is proposed. The experimental
results on the relevant data sets show that the proposed method
has a good effect.
Keywords-anti-electric theft; short-term electricity load
forecasting; multi-granularity information optimization template
I. INTRODUCTION
In recent years, with the development of the means of
electric theft the scope is also expanding, and the related
litigation cases are also on the rise. This not only affects
the normal operation of the power system, but also causes
significant losses to the relevant power enterprises.
Traditional anti-electric theft work is mainly done by
manual work, which is difficult to meet the requirements[1].
The traditional management of electricity consumption is
deeply rooted, and the lack of attention to electric theft has
contributed to the breach of contract and electric theft.
Common methods of electric theft include current electric
theft, voltage electric theft, altering AC magnetic field and
changing electric energy meter, etc.[2]. With the progress of
science and technology, the means of electric theft are
becoming more and more scientific and technological, so
the traditional detection methods are no longer suitable for
relevant anti-electric theft work.
II. RELEVANT ANALYSIS OF ANTI-ELECTRIC THEFT
At present, the anti-electric theft has received the
attention of power enterprises at all levels, as well as
widespread attention from all walks of life, the
corresponding means of electric theft are also constantly
developing. By using the data collected by the
telecommunication information acquisition system, the
parameters of users' power consumption state can be
monitored in real time. We can also use large data
978-1-7281-3681-3/19/$31.00 ©2019 IEEE
DOI 10.1109/CISCE.2019.00050
technology to select voltage, current, power and electricity
as the electrical reference in the criterion of electric theft.
Through the combination of current collected data and
historical data to analyze electricity consumption behavior,
suspicious users of electric theft are found.
Relevant researchers at home and abroad have put
forward different judgment methods for abnormal
electricity consumption, and achieved good results[ 3 ].
Current anti-electric theft measures mainly include three
aspects. The first is to optimize the way of electric energy
calculation; the second is to adopt technical measures; and
the third is to increase management measures. There are
mainly two ways to optimize the calculation of electric
energy: adopting new algorithm and intelligent meter[5-8].
In terms of management measures, it is mainly through
strengthening the anti-electric theft consciousness of power
managers, increasing the electric theft strikes and
strengthening the construction of power information
system.
Among the above anti-electric theft measures, the first
and the third are obviously not suitable for the growing
electric theft technology and power system. Therefore,
more and more scholars focus on the research of
anti-electric theft technology. The main problems of the
current anti-electric theft technology are the inaccuracy of
the judgment and the inaccuracy of the user's characteristic
information mining. In view of the above problems, this
paper proposes a new method for judging electric theft
based on predicting user short-term electricity load
forecasting . The advantages of the method mainly
includes:
A short-term load curve prediction method based on
multi-granularity information optimization template
matching is proposed. A semi-supervised K-means nearest
neighbor clustering algorithm is used to cluster historical
load samples and obtain a typical template library for load
curve prediction. Subsequently, the non-linear least squares
optimization algorithm is used to match the collected data
to identify the short-term load curve prediction. Finally,
based on multi-granularity information optimization, the
short-term load curve prediction results are adjusted by
multi-segment similar optimization, so as to improve the
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accuracy of short-term load curve prediction.
ALGORITHM PRINCIPLE
III.
The core content of the algorithm includes two modules:
data processing module and load forecasting module The
load forecasting module is used to get the user's electricity
characteristic curve. It is compared with the industry
characteristic curve to judge the possibility of electric theft.
Figure 1 shows the general flow chart of short-term
load curve forecasting method with the following detailed
process:
Firstly, data acquisition and pre-processing are carried
out and the user electricity load sample set
B′={b′1,b′2,…,b′i,…,b′n} is obtained. The user electricity
load samples are classified according to the industry
category. At this time, N′ clustering categories were formed
initially. The cluster obtained from sample clustering is
divided into C′={c1,c2,…,cr,…,cN′}. N c Clustering cluster
distance D is set to calculate the mean vector ur of each
clustering cluster cr and the distance (d) of mean vector ur
of every two clustering clusters.
Fig. 1 General Flow Chart of Short-term Load Curve Forecasting Method
1
ur
cr
¦ bccr
bc (1)
clustering cluster C′. Assuming there is N categories in
total, the N+1st category is the failure one of curve
recognition and classification, and divide the clustering
cluster of sample C={c1,c2,…,cN,cN+1}; Calculate the
distance between each daily load sample curve and the
center curve of its type, and adopt the nonlinear Least
Squares optimization algorithm:
lir bic  ur 2
(3)
Select and classify the sample b′i with the lir less than
the set threshold value L into the corresponding
classification cluster.
cr cr ^bic` , r ^1,, 2,, , N` (4)
The samples unclassified into the corresponding
classification cluster are classified into Category N+1. At
that time, the N+1st category of load curve is less in
quantity compared to the overall samples. Later, conduct a
pair of mean value recognition to the personnel identity in
category N+1,
Work out the square error after all samples are
classified for the first time,
N
¦¦
2
E bc  ur 2
(5)
r 1 bcCr
Wherein the smaller E indicates the higher similarity in
clustering cluster.
In order to achieve the minimum E, the semi-supervised
k-NNM adopts the greedy algorithm to achieve the
approximate solution through iterative optimization. Set up
the iteration times threshold value W, initialize w=1,
calculate the distance l′ir=||b′i-ur||2 between each k+1st daily
load curve samples b′i and the mean vector ur of each
clustering cluster, select the minimum value of l′ir, namely
r=argminję{1,2,…,N,…,k′N}lij, then classify such sample b′i into
such cluster Cr=CrĤ{b′i}ˈr={1,2,…,k}; Later, calculate
the mean vector ur of each clustering cluster after this
updating, and calculate the square error E in this round. If
all ur fails to be updated, stop the iteration. This round of
classification result is used as the classification and output
of sample to complete the division of daily load curve
clustering.
If the ur is updated, w=w+1. If w<W, generate new
clustering cluster and classify into category N←N+1, and
conduct the reiteration and update the clustering operation.
If the w=W, select the minimum value of square error E
d  cr , crc  ur  urc (2)
Wherein both the cr and cr′ belong to clustering cluster
C′. Then judging where the d less than D exists, if existing,
finding out two clustering cluster with the shortest distance,
and merging it cr=crĤcr′, thus generating new clustering
cluster C′. Repeat the above discussion till all d is no less
than D, further updating the clustering cluster C′.
Withdraw and update the category center line ur of the
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between the first classification and successive iteration as
the classification and output of sample to complete the
division of daily load curve clustering.
Finally, the user's daily load data is divided into N
categories, and various types of center curves are
withdrawn, thus acquiring the forecasting template library
of typical load curve; On the basis of the above and the N
categories of daily load curve types, the key factor
correlation is adopted to analyze the relevance between
various sample characteristic attributes and clustering types, The nonlinear Least Squares optimization algorithm is
thus withdrawing the strong correlation properties of each adopted to match the sample load date of acquisition
kind of clustering category; The calculation method is as sample data, thus working out the preliminary daily load
follows: forecasting curve; The strong correlation property obtained
Ni
on the basis of the N categories of daily load curve types
Mi M conducts the multi-section similar optimization and
I ( X , Y c) ¦ [ log i ] 
i 1 M M adjustment to the preliminary daily load forecasting curve
Nj
(6) through the multi-granularity information optimization; For
Ni
M uv M uv
{¦ P ( yu ) ˜ [¦ log ]} the daily load forecasting curve obtained through
u 1 v 1 M M multi-section similar optimization and adjustment, Newton
In the above formula, X indicates the user's electricity interpolation polynomial is adopted for n times to conduct
load data in each clustering cluster, Y′ indicates the the smoothing processing to the joint of segmenting curve,
associated factors data, M indicates the sum of number of finally, the load forecasting curve user electricity is
all values; Ni indicates the interval number of X; Mi obtained;
indicates the number of numerical value of X in the ith
interval; Nj indicates the interval quantity of Yʹ, P(yu) IV. EXPERIMENT AND ANALYSIS
indicates the probability of Yʹ in the uth interval; Muv For the purpose of verifying the effectiveness of
indicates the number of numerical value of X just in the vth method in this paper, the experiment takes the electricity
interval when Yʹ is in the uth interval. The mutual information collection system of certain Electric Power
information between the electricity consumption and Company of State Grid as the background implementation
potential associated factors of each user in user group is platform and the basic data source.
indicated in the formula (7).
A. Data acquisition
ª I ( X 1 , Y1c) I ( X 1 , Y jc) I ( X 1 , Yl c) º 50,000 samples in 2010~2017 withdrawn from the
« » SG186 marketing business application system are
« » corresponding to the user measuring index data obtained by
Ik « I ( X i , Y1c) I ( X i , Y jc) I ( X i , Yl c) » (7)
« » the relevant users from the electricity information
« » collection system, the user archive data obtained from
« I ( X , Y c) I ( X p , Y jc) I ( X p , Yl c) »¼ SG186 marketing business application system. The
¬ p 1
characteristics database selected initially contain 8 types of
Wherein, the {X1,X2,…,Xp} indicates the electricity information: user's basic information, user's electricity
consumption data sequence of p users, while the information, information at measuring point, information in
{Y1ʹ,Y2ʹ,…,Ylʹ} indicates the dataset composed by the electric energy meter, electricity information, load
potential associated factors. The average mutual information, meteorological information and social status
information between the associated factors Yjʹ and X1, information(40 associated factor data in total). The
X2,…, Xp is calculated as per the formula (8). obtained data are preprocessed, including the data cleaning,
data complementation, data definition and storage.
1 p
I ( X , Y j' )¦ I ( X i , Y j' ), j 1,, , l
pi1
(8)
B. Experimental results analysis
The average mutual information of different groups of Based on the users' electricity sample data, the
users and each associated factors could be calculated, semi-supervised mean value k is adopted for the clustering
which shows the strength of relevance. The larger the data of historical electricity load sample with the
is, the stronger the relevance between them is[4]. Select and neighbor-clustering algorithm. As per the 8 categories of
sort the associated factors with value more than 0, work out initial clustering in the industry, the daily load data of users
the associated factor list after ranking, and select the are divided into 28 categories finally, and various
factors among the top. These factors are regarded as strong categories of center curves are withdrawn as shown in
associate attribute. Figure 2, thus obtaining the forecasting template library of
typical load curve.

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 Fig. 2 Extraction Process of Daily Load Clustering Category Center Line of Certain Case

Based on 28 categories of daily load curve types, the result shown in Figure 4.
key factor correlation is adopted to analyze the relevance
between characteristic attribute of various sample and
clustering category, as shown in Figure 3, thus withdrawing
strong correlation property of each kind clustering type
(red part in Figure 4).The non-linear Least Squares
optimization algorithm is adopted to match the sample load
date of acquisition sample data, thus obtaining the
preliminary daily load forecasting curve. Based on the
strong correlation property obtained from 28 categories of
daily load curve types, the multi-section similar
optimization and adjustment is conducted to the
preliminary daily load forecasting curve through the
multi-granularity information optimization; For the daily
load forecasting curve obtained through multi-section
similar optimization and adjustment, Newton interpolation
polynomial is adopted for many times to conduct the Fig. 4 Comparison of Short-term Load Forecasting
smoothing processing to the joint of segmenting curve,
finally, the load forecasting curve user electricity is The a in the above Figure represents the short-term load
obtained. forecasting algorithm as proposed in this paper, the b
represents the algorithm in literature, and the c represents
the BP neural network algorithm. Compared with the
comparison algorithm, the short-term load forecasting
algorithm as proposed in this paper has better forecasting
effect.
V. SUMMARY
In this paper, a method of identifying electric theft
based on user short-term load forecasting is constructed on
the background of the implementation platform of a power
company's electricity information acquisition system.
Firstly, the daily load forecasting data of users are obtained
according to the historical data of users. And it is compared
with the industry load characteristic data in the system to
obtain the comparative data. This method is based on user's
prediction data and real historical data. The algorithm
Fig. 3 Analysis Result of Associated Factor of Electricity Consumption of analysis data show that this method is feasible and helpful
Part of Users in Certain Group to improve the detection of electric theft, which is of vital
For the purpose of verifying the effectiveness of significance for maintaining normal work of electric theft.
short-term forecasting of users' electricity load, with the Next we will establish electric theft model based on the
short-term load forecasting method based on big data in most relevant data of users, the short-term load forecasting
literature[5] and the BP neural network algorithm as the data of users and the historical load data of users to
contrast algorithm, one comparison time point is selected improve the effect of electric theft judgment further.
every 2 hours within 24 hours and the average error rate is
selected as the judgment standard, with the comparison

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