Chapter 9 Question 14

Davison Construction Company is building a luxury lakefront home in the Finger Lakes region
of New York. Coordination of the architect and subcontractors will require a major effort to
meet the 44-week (approximately 10-month) completion date requested by the owner. The
Davison project manager prepared the following project network.

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Estimates of the optimistic, most probable, and pessimistic times (in weeks) for the activities are

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as follows:

co
eH w
m
a Most b

o.
Activit Optimistic Probable Pessimistic

rs e y Time Time Time

ou urc
A 4 8 12
B 6 7 8
C 6 12 18
o

D 3 5 7
aC s

E 6 9 18
vi y re

F 5 8 17
G 10 15 20
H 5 6 13
ed d
ar stu

a) Find the critical path.

is
Th
sh

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 Tabular Data
(a+ 4 m+b)
First, calculate the Average Time for each activity, tA = 4

Second, do a forward pass through the activities to determine ES and EF. ES is the
maximum EF of an activities predecessors. EF = ES + tA.
Third, do a backward pass through the activities to determine LF and LS. LF is the
minimum LS of an activities successors. LS = LF - tA.
Forth, determine Slack by calculating the difference between LS and ES.
Finally, the critical path follows those activities with zero slack.

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Early Late σ2

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tA Early Finish Start Late Critical
Average Start EF LS Finish Slack

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Critical path
(ES + tA) (LF- tA)

eH w
Activity Time Predecessors ES LF (LS-ES) Path? variance
A 8 0 8 0 8 0 Yes 1.7778

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B 7 A 8 15 14 21 6
C 12 rs e
A 8 20 8 20 0 Yes 4
ou urc
D 5 A 8 13 15 20 7
E 10 C,D 20 30 20 30 0 Yes 4
o

F 9 C,B 20 29 21 30 1
aC s

G 15 E,F 30 45 30 45 0 Yes 2.7778

vi y re

H 7 F,G 45 52 45 52 0 Yes 1.7778

σ2 for
Tcrit ==> 14.333
ed d

The critical path is equal to 52 weeks and follows START-A-C-E-G-H-FINISH.

ar stu

b) The expected project completion time is 52 weeks.

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c) Based on the critical path, what is the estimated probability the project can be completed in
the 44 weeks as requested by the owner?
Th

First, calculate the variance for each activity on the critical path using the equation:
2
b−a
( )
sh

2
σ = 6

Calculated values are shown in the tabular data above. Summing these up gives a total critical
path variance of, σ2 for Tcrit = 14.333.

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 It follows that the standard deviation is, σ = √ 14.333=3.786 weeks.
x−μ
The z-value is then calculated using the equation z= , where x = 44 weeks, and µ is the
σ
mean and equals 52 weeks.
44−52
z= =−2.113
3.786

The corresponding probability from Appendix B in the textbook is 0.0174 or 1.74%.

The estimated probability the project can be completed in the 44 weeks as requested by the
owner is only 1.74%.
d) Based on only the critical path, what is the estimated probability the building project could

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run more than 3 months late? Use 57 weeks for this calculation.

er as
co
Following the same calculations for z, above, we get

eH w
o.
57−52
z=
3.786
=1.3207
rs e
ou urc
The corresponding probability from Appendix B in the textbook is 0.9066 or 90.66%. This is the
estimated probability that the project will take 57 weeks or less. The estimated probability the
o

project could run more than 57 weeks is found by 1-.9067 = .0934, or 9.34%.
aC s
vi y re

e) The construction company should tell the owner that the estimated project completion time is
52 weeks. It is unlikely the project will be completed in the 44 weeks requested. Running 3
months over schedule is very likely.
ed d
ar stu
is
Th
sh

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