Allan Rey B.

Aventurado
MBA103

Solution:

Computation shows that there is only 12.49% of 7:1 chance of success.

Analysis/Recommendations

a. If Robert pushes the launching given that there is only 7:1 chance of success, there would be 12.49%
probability. This low probability would pose a big risk of losing his investments. It could be that the
planned launching is just too soon and there are still things that need to be done or performed
accordingly. Though time is of the essence, there is always a right timing. Even his brilliant colleagues
are not that confident – that alone already sends a signal. Thus, I would also recommend that the
launching be postponed.

If Robert postpones the launching, there would then be a 3:1 chance of success. It will double the
probability of success from 12.49% to 25% which is just according to how Mike predicted. With this,
it will give more chance for the product to succeed and would lessen Robert’s risk of losing his
investment.

b. With the ration of 5:1 chance of success, the is a probability of around 16.66%. This is already an
improvement on the previous success ration which is 7:1. This alone shows that Clark must have
something good to achieve this increase on the probability of success. Indeed, this is worth Clark’s
effort.